Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

1120 am PDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Synopsis

It will remain cooler and drier for inland areas through Friday, with patchy night and morning coastal low clouds spreading into portions of the western valleys at times. The center of Hurricane Marie will remain well to the south of the area. But a large increase in surf is expected for for Saturday into Sunday, then slowly subsiding for Labor Day into early next week. Mid and high level moisture from Marie will bring more clouds with increasing chances for showers for Saturday night into Sunday along with a slight chance of thunderstorms for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys for Sunday afternoon.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,

Short Term

(today through Saturday), Cooler and drier conditions will continue for inland areas through Friday with high temperatures as much as 5 to 10 degrees below average for the mountains and inland valleys. High temperatures through Friday will range from the mid 70s near the coast to the mid 80s to lower 90s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 100.

While the center of Hurricane Marie is expected to remain well to the southwest of the area, mid and high level moisture and clouds is expected to spread into the area for Saturday through Sunday, then decrease for late Sunday night through Labor Day.

High temperatures will warm on Saturday with warmer nights for Friday night through Sunday night. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s near the coast to the upper 80s to mid 90s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 100.

Long Term

(Sunday through Wednesday), The track of the center of Hurricane Marie is expected to be toward the west northwest through Saturday. For Saturday evening, that would place it well to the south of Point Conception and well to the west and a little to the south of the southern tip of Baja.

Chances for showers will increase on Sunday along with a slight chance of thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys. Chance for showers will then decrease for Sunday night and Labor Day. There is greater spread in the high temperature guidance on Sunday due to differences in the amount of moisture influx and clouds.

There is a 40 to 50 percent chance of one-tenth inch or more of rainfall for lower elevations with chances for one inch or more of rainfall in the mountains of 10 to 20 percent.

Surf from Hurricane Marie is expected to increase on Saturday and Saturday night, peak on Sunday and Sunday night, then begin to slowly diminish on Labor Day.

Aviation

031800z, Coast/Valleys, Patchy, intermittent low clouds based 1500- 2000 feet MSL will will develop tonight after 02z into Friday. Clouds may briefly move into coastal San Diego Co 03-05z before scattering again (40% chance), with the greatest chances for 1 hour + impacts 11-15Z. Any clouds will clear by 16Z Fri.

Mountains/Deserts, Mostly clear skies today and tomorrow. Breezy westerly winds mainly through mountain passes and along desert slopes 20-07Z. Gusts 25-35 kts with pockets of moderate up/downdrafts over and in lee of ridges.

Marine

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. However, wind gusts around 20 knots are expected this afternoon and evening around San Clemente Island.

Beaches

A large south swell from Hurricane Marie will move into the region Friday night and Saturday, peaking Sunday into Monday, before gradually diminishing Tuesday. This will result in elevated to high surf and strong rip and longshore currents at majority of beaches. Additionally, waves will occasionally run much farther up the beach than expected, especially during increasing and evening high tides.

For south and southwest-facing beaches, expecting high surf 6-10 feet. This includes Orange County and north San Diego County beaches. For west-facing beaches, expecting elevated surf 4-7 feet. This includes most of southern San Diego County beaches.

High surf combined with high astronomical tides 6 to about 6.5 feet will lead to tidal overflow and coastal flooding Saturday through Tuesday during evening high tides, especially for those south and southwest-facing beaches as well as low-lying, typically impacted areas.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

High Surf Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ, Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm.

High Surf Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm.

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