Isolated light showers will continue for the coastal basin this morning. More widespread moderate showers develop late this evening into Sunday morning, becoming more scattered during the day Sunday before tapering off Sunday afternoon and evening. Dry and warmer for the remainder of the week with highs near to a few degrees below normal each day.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
Satellite this afternoon depicts a broad region of clouds west of northern Baja streaming through a branch of the subtropical jet stream toward Socal. Radar is beginning to pick up on light rain west of San Clemente Island, set to arrive at the coast during the later afternoon hours, moving inland through the evening. High resolution models now agree that tonight's rainfall will be widespread and light region-wide, perhaps more intermittent in the high desert, with some brief pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall, especially for coastal areas and for San Diego County. Widespread rain turns into scattered showers and wrap up in the desert valleys Sunday morning. Showers become increasingly more isolated through the afternoon, tapering off for northern areas by Sunday evening, leaving behind a few isolated showers in San Diego County through Sunday night.
Rain totals for this system will generally be higher for southern areas; SD County up to the mountains is expecting 0.75-1" of rain with locally high end amounts above 1.5". Orange County and the Inland Empire can expect 0.3-0.6" (more south and along foothills), with slightly higher totals in adjacent mountains. The deserts can generally expect 0.10-0.40" (more south) of generally light rain. Given that the system is bringing along subtropical moisture, the warm sector will bring snow levels above 10,000 feet tonight before dropping back to 7,500-8,000 ft. A dusting is possible above 8,000 feet over the highest passes and peaks, otherwise, no snow is expected for any mountain communities.
As the upper level trough passes to our north Sunday afternoon, there will be a brief uptick in west/northwest winds over the waters, mountain ridges and desert slopes, with gusts 25-40 mph, weakening overnight into Monday.
As the storm exits the region, low temperatures will drop Monday/Tuesday morning to the upper-40s inland, upper 30s in the high desert and down into the low 30s and 20s in elevated mountain valleys. Patchy frost is possible in the high desert.
Next week, a series of weak, fast-moving ridges and troughs will keep temperatures fluctuating, though gradually increasing by late week to the low to mid-80s regionwide for lower elevations. These are near average temperatures inland but above average for coastal areas. Generally expecting sunny skies with a few passing clouds
311730, Multiple cloud layers across the coastal basin today with mid to high clouds in the deserts. Widespread precip moves into the coastal basin after 03Z Sun, bringing vis reductions (3-5SM) as well as cig reductions (2000-3000 ft MSL) under heavier rain. The highest confidence in heavier rain leading to the aforementioned restrictions is in San Diego County. -SHRA possible in the desrts 10- 16Z Sun. Low to moderate confidence on timing of heavier rain occurrence in TAFs. Showers will become scattered after 18Z.
Westerly winds increase for Sunday afternoon and evening with gusts 20-25 kt. There is a 5% chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. Weaker winds expected Monday, followed by more elevated onshore winds Tuesday afternoon and evening, with gusts in the outer coastal waters potentially exceeding 20 knots.
An increasing southwesterly swell (3 ft at 15 seconds from 200 degrees) will bring elevated surf this weekend into Monday, with breaking wave heights 3 to 6 feet Sunday/Monday. While high tides will continue to wane through the weekend, tides will remain just above 6 feet which could still lead to local minor tidal overflow during high tides where breaking waves approach 5-6 feet, mostly on southwest facing beaches Sun/Mon.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.
