Widespread light rain will continue this morning, becoming more scattered during the day before tapering off this afternoon and evening. Dry and warmer for the remainder of the week with highs near to a few degrees below normal each day.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,
As of 10 AM, the warm sector of the storm has pushed east and we are now advecting relatively colder air aloft. Looking at GFS 18z forecast soundings, there is some background instability only up to 700 mbs. The axis of the trough to the north is passing east of the coastal basin, making showers increasingly more isolated this afternoon through this evening throughout the coastal basin, with perhaps a few leftover showers in SD County tonight before completely drying out region-wide overnight into Monday. Given the relatively shallow instability profiles, any showers that do develop will be mainly light, with only a few brief showers of moderate intensity.
Monday will begin with cold morning temperatures, especially in the inland valleys (40s), high desert (mid/upper 30s) and mountain valleys (20s/30s). Otherwise, expect sunny skies across the region with light N/NE offshore flow over the mountains and deserts during the day, then increasing mid and high level clouds during the evening as another trough moves north of the region.
With the weak trough moving through Tuesday, some light rain or drizzle cannot be ruled out for coastal and inland SD County though the one model (ECMWF ENS) picking up on this possibility seems to be backing off.
As a result of this trough and another trough Thursday, high temperatures will remain rather steady Tue-Thu: mid- 70s across the coastal basin (including the IE), upper 60s in the high desert, 50s in the mountains and around 80F in the low deserts.
Friday through the weekend, an upper ridge builds over the Western US. While the intensity of the ridge over SoCal remains uncertain, the thermal trough likely sets up at the coast or a few miles inland, increasing high temperatures to the low to mid-80s in the coastal basin and lower deserts, while the mountains and high deserts remain cool.
010530, Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered cloud cover based 4000-6500 ft MSL banked against the mountains and through San Diego County. ISO -SHRA will continue to taper off in San Diego Co and then end by 09Z, with clouds gradually scattering out overnight. Brief, intermittent MVFR conditions with cigs dipping down to 2500-3000 ft MSL are possible through 09Z, unlikely after.
Weak winds expected through Tuesday morning, followed by more elevated onshore winds Tuesday afternoon and evening, with gusts in the outer coastal waters potentially exceeding 20 knots.
Southwesterly swell (3 ft at 15 seconds from 200 degrees) will bring elevated surf through Monday, with breaking wave heights 3 to 6 feet. Surf combined with a high tide near 6 ft will continue the potential for minor tidal overflow during the Monday afternoon high tide around 3:30 PM.
Tides are expected to increase for the end of the week, with tides reaching 7 ft as early as Friday. Tides will peak over the weekend into early next week around 7.5 ft.
Reminder, tides mentioned have been corrected to reflect the current trends in actual tide observations.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
