Ation discussion for 06Z TAFs,
Evening update, Low clouds are slowly making their way into coastal San Diego and will steadily increase in coverage overnight to encompass the Orange County coast and up to 10-15 miles inland. Low clouds will stick to the coast through late Thursday morning, lingering mainly along the San Diego County coast through the afternoon.
Previous discussion, Today kicks off a warming trend that will continue through next Monday. This warming trend will result in above average temperatures for much of the next week, with the biggest departure from normal in the inland valleys, mountains, and deserts. This warming will bring temperatures 7 to 15 degrees above average for inland locations through Saturday.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will expand over California and strengthen early next week. This will bring temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average for the far inland valleys, mountains, and deserts. Current forecast has moderate to major HeatRisk in the low desert, with minor to moderate in the valleys and High Desert Sunday through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GEFS are more inline with the NBM on the latest runs, although the deterministic NBM guidance is running closer to the maximum values of the EC and GEFS ensemble guidance especially for Monday. The geographical proximity of the deserts to the center of the high pressure increases confidence in the temperature forecast for that area. There still remains some uncertainty on how warm it will get west of the mountains as prevailing onshore flow will spread cooler coastal air inland with the afternoon sea breeze.
By Tuesday, most of the ensemble guidance indicates the ridge aloft will weaken or move east, which will bring a few degrees of cooling to the area. The upper level pattern becomes more uncertain for Wednesday, with some solutions maintaining weak ridging and others showing weak troughing. Current forecast has a few additional degrees of cooling between Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of at least patchy night and morning low clouds and fog are expected to be present along the coast potentially into portions of the western valleys at times through the forecast period.
Above average temperatures will return tomorrow and prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. Warmest conditions will be Sunday through Tuesay with areas of moderate HeatRisk expected in the valleys and High Desert and major HeatRisk in the low deserts. The marine layer and weak onshore flow will keep coastal areas cooler.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs,
Evening update, Low clouds are slowly making their way into coastal San Diego and will steadily increase in coverage overnight to encompass the Orange County coast and up to 10-15 miles inland. Low clouds will stick to the coast through late Thursday morning, lingering mainly along the San Diego County coast through the afternoon.
Previous discussion, Today kicks off a warming trend that will continue through next Monday. This warming trend will result in above average temperatures for much of the next week, with the biggest departure from normal in the inland valleys, mountains, and deserts. This warming will bring temperatures 7 to 15 degrees above average for inland locations through Saturday.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will expand over California and strengthen early next week. This will bring temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average for the far inland valleys, mountains, and deserts. Current forecast has moderate to major HeatRisk in the low desert, with minor to moderate in the valleys and High Desert Sunday through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GEFS are more inline with the NBM on the latest runs, although the deterministic NBM guidance is running closer to the maximum values of the EC and GEFS ensemble guidance especially for Monday. The geographical proximity of the deserts to the center of the high pressure increases confidence in the temperature forecast for that area. There still remains some uncertainty on how warm it will get west of the mountains as prevailing onshore flow will spread cooler coastal air inland with the afternoon sea breeze.
By Tuesday, most of the ensemble guidance indicates the ridge aloft will weaken or move east, which will bring a few degrees of cooling to the area. The upper level pattern becomes more uncertain for Wednesday, with some solutions maintaining weak ridging and others showing weak troughing. Current forecast has a few additional degrees of cooling between Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of at least patchy night and morning low clouds and fog are expected to be present along the coast potentially into portions of the western valleys at times through the forecast period.
070400z, Coast/Valleys, Low clouds 1500-2000ft MSL currently vcnty KSAN will gradually spread into most coastal areas by 12Z, though cigs will be patchy and somewhat intermittent overnight. Chances for MVFR CIGs at KSAN overnight are 60-70%, 50% for KCRQ, and 40% for KSNA. Skies clear by 17Z for all locations, though patches of low clouds will likely linger just offshore into the afternoon. More widespread and cohesive low clouds 1200-1700 ft MSL move onshore after Fri 03Z.
.Mountains/Deserts, Mostly SKC with VFR conditions through the period. FEW clouds AOA 10,000ft MSL will develop over mountains this Thu afternoon.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
