Ation and Marine Discussions,
As our most recent low pressure system departs to the east, low clouds and fog are starting to disperse along coastal slopes and elevated winds along the desert slopes are starting to abate. Satellite imagery shows that marine layer clouds are struggling to develop under a weak inversion tonight. However, a return to quasi-zonal flow will allow the inversion to strengthen by tomorrow. Thus, marine layer clouds should return to coastal areas and western valleys from Saturday night onward. Weakening onshore flow and slowly increasing upper heights may allow the marine layer to become shallow enough for patchy fog for coastal areas by early next week.
Temperatures will rebound to near seasonal averages on Saturday with highs near 70 at the coast, upper 70s to low 80s for inland valleys, and 90s in the lower deserts. A slow warming trend will continue into Sunday. Thereafter, the deserts will continue to warm through early next week while the coastal basin cools a few degrees. Overall, temperatures will hover around 2-7 degrees above seasonal averages across the region through mid-next week with minor fluctuations each day. NBM temperatures reach up to 105 in the lower deserts mid-next week, though a lack of any notable ridging begs the question of whether temps may be slightly overdone.
By late next week, model solutions diverge. An upper trough is expected to pass through the NW CONUS late next week, but the timing, position, and amplitude are all quite uncertain at the moment. The mean of the ensembles leans toward a cooling trend for late next week into the weekend, but not much can be said beyond that at this time.
A warming and drying trend is expected through this weekend as weak zonal flow returns to the region. Thereafter, temperatures will hover slightly above seasonal averages through next week. Marine layer clouds expected for coastal areas and western valleys each night and morning. Clouds may lower and become more confined to coastal areas by early next week.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, Updated Aviation and Marine Discussions,
As our most recent low pressure system departs to the east, low clouds and fog are starting to disperse along coastal slopes and elevated winds along the desert slopes are starting to abate. Satellite imagery shows that marine layer clouds are struggling to develop under a weak inversion tonight. However, a return to quasi-zonal flow will allow the inversion to strengthen by tomorrow. Thus, marine layer clouds should return to coastal areas and western valleys from Saturday night onward. Weakening onshore flow and slowly increasing upper heights may allow the marine layer to become shallow enough for patchy fog for coastal areas by early next week.
Temperatures will rebound to near seasonal averages on Saturday with highs near 70 at the coast, upper 70s to low 80s for inland valleys, and 90s in the lower deserts. A slow warming trend will continue into Sunday. Thereafter, the deserts will continue to warm through early next week while the coastal basin cools a few degrees. Overall, temperatures will hover around 2-7 degrees above seasonal averages across the region through mid-next week with minor fluctuations each day. Nbm temperatures reach up to 105 in the lower deserts mid-next week, though a lack of any notable ridging begs the question of whether temps may be slightly overdone.
By late next week, model solutions diverge. An upper trough is expected to pass through the NW CONUS late next week, but the timing, position, and amplitude are all quite uncertain at the moment. The mean of the ensembles leans toward a cooling trend for late next week into the weekend, but not much can be said beyond that at this time.
301135z, Coast/Valleys. Mostly clear skies expected through the early evening hours. SCT to locally BKN clouds near 1200-1800 ft MSL will be intermittent across the coastal and valley areas of San Diego County (including KSAN) until ~ 16Z this morning with moderate confidence on clearing timing. Low clouds return within 10 miles of the coastline after 03Z this evening with similar bases expected at coastal TAF sites.
Deserts, Mostly clear and VFR conditions through tonight with elevated onshore winds later this afternoon and early evening.
Northwest wind gusts will approach 20 kts over outer coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
