Warmer and drier weather this week, further warming this weekend. Gusty west winds Wednesday and Thursday, weakening late week and into Saturday. Rain chances return early to mid next week as the next system moves across, along with cooler weather.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
New Aviation and Marine Discussion,
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a deepening low off the coast of Central CA, poised to continue it's southward track. As previously forecasted, this low should become an open trough and slide across Baja CA Thursday, stunting the warming that has been observed this week. At this point, the moisture profile is not conducive for much if any precipitation as this system moves through, and practically all mention of QPF have been removed from the forecast. Instead, the further south slide of the trough will bring about gusty west to southwest winds to the deserts and mountains, primarily Thursday afternoon, where gusts may exceed 30 mph at times, even higher for mountain passes and desert slopes.
As the system moves into the the Desert Southwest Thursday, weak mid level ridging fills in its spot and we will quickly warm for the end of the week and into the weekend. The thermal ridge axis will set up over SoCal on Saturday, expected to be the hottest day, with highs in the 70s for the coasts and mountains, 80s for inland spots and High Desert, and upper 90s for the low deserts, or around 5-12 degrees above normal.
Heading into early next week, a very large low on the backside of the ridge will meander into the CA coastline, bringing our next chance for precipitation. While moisture seems to be more consistent between model runs with this next low, this far out, significant disagreements on the track of the low exist between the global models. Any precipitation and/or wind impacts from this next system will not be nailed out until better agreement is seen.
300440z. Westerly winds gusting 25-30 kts in the mountain passes and adjacent deserts are expected until about 09Z before weakening. Patchy low clouds return to the immediate coast between 10Z and 15Z, extending less than 5 miles inland. Bases will likely be around 1500- 2000 ft MSL, with about a 30-35 percent chance of CIG impacts at KSAN and KSNA but about a 20-30 percent chance for CIG impacts at KCRQ. Expect clearing to the beaches by 19Z. Elsewhere, SCT-BKN high clouds with unrestricted VIS expected through Wednesday afternoon/evening. Low clouds likely to return to the coastal areas around 06Z Thursday with a little higher bases, spreading inland during the following 12 hours. Low clouds could spread 10-15 miles inland by 15Z Thursday.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Saturday.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
