A low pressure system will continue to impact Southern California through this evening with heavy rain and gusty winds. Clearing tonight leading into quiet weather and gradual warming through the weekend. Another low pressure system from the north will bring cooling early next week.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
Update: Most of the moderate to heave rainfall has made its way through San Diego County now, with only some remaining showers over the southeastern corner. There are also some isolated showers overs the water, which will make their way onshore throughout the evening, and then all shower activity should be coming to an end around midnight, or shortly thereafter. Additional amounts expected will likely only amount to anywhere from 0.10-0.25 inches for most locations in southeastern portion of San Diego County, especially for the foothills, where locally higher amounts will be possible. Skies will continue to clear in the morning with high pressure beginning to build in behind the exiting trough. This will lead to mostly sunny skies across the region tomorrow, although temperatures will still be on the cooler side, with some breezy conditions during the afternoon hours. The marine layer is going to struggle to fill back in tomorrow night and through the rest of the week, given that there will be weak offshore winds following the exiting trough. Overall the models have bee relatively consistent with a warming and drying trend going into the upcoming weekend, followed by a return of cooler temperatures, and possibly a chance of showers during the early part of next week.
(Previous discussion submitted at 146 PM):
This afternoon, a convective precipitation band is pushing through the coastal basin along the cold front attached to the low pressure system to the north. This will continue to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to San Diego County and eastern mountains through this evening. Rainfall rates of 0.3-0.5" per hour remain possible in these areas presenting a minor flood risk for the next few hours. A strong LLJ may allow for isolated strong wind gusts in the stronger convection currently coming onshore in San Diego County.
Scattered post-frontal showers lingering this evening across the coastal basin, but any additional rainfall should remain light with minimal impacts. Clearing expected from west to east across the area tonight as the low pressure system exits the region.
Much more benign weather will follow as a weak ridge builds into the southwestern US leading to dry conditions and gradual warming through the weekend. A surface high will move over intermountain west by Wednesday and should create enough of an offshore pressure gradient to prevent marine layer cloud development for a few days.
By early next week another upper level trough will swing across the western US. This should bring temperatures back to below average, but impacts beyond that are uncertain at this time.
150300z, ISO-SCT -SHRA possible through about 12Z. Intermittent bases 1500-2500 ft MSL tonight, especially under -SHRA, below a 3000- 6000 ft deck which will gradually scatter out tonight and Wed morning. Mostly clear after 17Z, with 10% chance or less of low cloud development Wed evening.
Gusts 25-35 kts in the mountains and desert slopes until 06Z. MOD UDDFS and local LLWS or rotors in lee of mountains such as vcnty KPSP.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected this evening through Saturday.
Surf will be 3 to 5 feet, with occasional sets to 6 feet through tonight. This will produce a high rip current risk.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
