Near normal temperatures expected this weekend. Thunderstorm chances over the mountains and locally into the deserts each afternoon Sunday through much of the forecast period. Above average high and low temperatures return early to mid next week. Coastal flooding will impact beaches Sunday through Tuesday with evening high tides exceeding 7 feet.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
Low clouds have scattered out of coastal San Diego County, and will be a bit more stubborn in Orange County, partially clearing this afternoon. Elsewhere, high clouds are streaming in from the south as an area of showers crosses over the northern portion of Baja California. This may bring greater cloud cover across portions of San Diego County this afternoon and early evening. The marine layer remains thinner, and will come in later tonight into the mid morning for coastal areas. This low cloud pattern looks to continue over the coming days.
The high pressure system that has brought the hotter weather has moved off to the northeast. This will help bring temperatures closer to normal, though parts of the mountains and high desert will be about 5 degrees above average. Models indicate humidity and PWAT values increasing later today into Sunday as the ridge moves over the Intermountain West. The hot dry air mass will struggle some to produce accumulating rainfall on Sunday, so slight chances are in the forecast for mountain regions into portions of the high desert. The high pressure system expands and moves into the northern plains by Monday as a trough offshore deepens. These two system will create to better funnel this monsoonal moisture into the desert southwest as PWATs/humidity peak, bringing the greatest chance for storm activity over the short term period. The mountains and deserts have the greatest chances (35-60% chance) to see bouts of heavy rainfall, lightning, and small hail Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence is still low on how far west this moisture and instability will move during this time period, so chances for any storm development west of the mountains is currently at or below 10 percent.
By Tuesday, models are in fair agreement of the high over the Great Plains shifting further to the east, displacing some of the moisture over our region. This will aid in a lower chance (20-35%) of showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains and deserts. Models show the high may retrograde back to the west by Wednesday into the end of the week, which would provide a greater storm chance to inland areas.
With the incoming monsoonal moisture and thunderstorm threat, there will also be higher humidity and hot weather! We all will start to feel greater humidity from the coast to the deserts by Sunday, which will last into much of the upcoming week. Along with this, hotter weather will return by the middle of the week (Tuesday - Thursday) for many areas that saw it this past week, with a larger emphasis on valleys west of the mountains. Nbm shows high temperatures well into the 90s east of Interstate 5 in Orange County and east of Interstate 15 in San Diego County, with highs near 100-105+ across the Inland Empire. With these temperatures, humidity, and warmer overnight low temperatures, HeatRisk will be higher, so please plan ahead!
111800z. Coast/Valleys, Clouds continue to erode back towards the coast, with VFR and high clouds AOA 15kft MSL prevailing through the afternoon. Low clouds (900-1200ft MSL) develop and move back inland again this evening, generally after 04z Sun for San Diego County and after 08z for Orange County. Areas of reduced VIS 2-5SM where stratus intersects terrain. Clouds will begin to clear valleys and coastal sites by 16-17z Sun.
.Mountains/Deserts, Increasing mid/high clouds AOA 15,000 ft MSL today and tomorrow and generally unrestricted visibility. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over the mountains Sunday afternoon.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.
Astronomical high tides peaking 7.0-7.5 ft each day July 12-14. High tides combine with a modest south swell (3 ft swell at 13-15 seconds from 190 degrees) to generate surf of 3-5 ft for south-facing beaches, creating areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. Highest tides each evening will generally occur between 8 and 10 PM. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening and contains the details. There will be a higher risk of rip currents through July 14.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Tuesday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
