Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

342 am PST Thu Nov 6 2025

Synopsis

High pressure to the southwest will strengthen across southern California through Sunday or Monday, then begin to slowly weaken early next week as low pressure over the eastern Pacific moves slowly toward the California coast. The greatest warming for today and Friday will be for the coast to the lower coastal slopes of the mountains. There will be slower warming for most areas for each day from Saturday through Monday with Monday high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average for inland areas. Slow moving low pressure over the eastern Pacific will bring increasing chances for widespread precipitation for the latter half of next week, but with low confidence in the details.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Short Term

(today through Saturday), High pressure to the southwest will strengthen across southern California into Sunday and Monday. The greatest warming for today and Friday will be from the coast to the lower coastal mountain slopes as the marine layer becomes shallower and onshore flow weakens. Slower warming will continue for most areas for each day from Saturday through Monday. With the warming, high temperatures on Saturday will be 5 to 10 degrees above average for inland areas with high temperatures ranging from the lower 70s near the coast to the mid 80s to around 90 for the Inland Empire with the lower 90s for the lower deserts.

Long Term

(Sunday through Wednesday), The models now show high pressure aloft across southern California continuing to slowly strengthen into Monday. High temperatures will continue to slowly warm for Sunday and Monday with Monday high temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for the valleys. High temperatures on Monday will range from the 70s near the coast to the mid 80s to lower 90s for the valleys with the lower 90s for the lower deserts.

A large area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific will move slowly toward the West Coast next week with continuing ensemble differences in the speed of eastward movement as well as the evolution of that area of low pressure. Chances for widespread precipitation will increase over southwestern California during the latter half of next week but with low confidence in the details. NBM daily chances for measurable precipitation have increased for each day from Wednesday through Saturday with the greatest chances still on Thursday and Friday.

Aviation

061030z, Coasts/Valleys, Mostly clear today, but with patchy low clouds most likely in southwest San Diego County. Bases would be around 2000 feet MSL. Any cigs will clear out by 17Z. A more uniform marine layer is expected tonight, with clouds to push ashore after 01Z in San Diego County and after 05Z in Orange County, with a 40% chance of cigs in the Inland Empire. Bases initially near 2000 feet MSL should lower to around 1500 feet overnight into Friday morning.

Mountains/Deserts, Mostly clear and VFR conditions today and tonight. Westerly winds 25-35 kts through San Gorgonio Pass today.

Marine

Northwest wind gusts around 20 kts are expected around San Clemente Island this afternoon and evening. No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.

Beaches

West-northwest swell of 4 to 5 feet with a period of 14 to 15 seconds will generate surf of 4 to 6 feet with sets to 8 feet. Highest surf will be south of Del Mar this evening through Friday. Elevated surf combined with high tides could lead to minor tidal overflow. Check the Beach Hazards Statement for more details.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM PST this morning through late Friday night for San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM PST this morning through Friday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas.

PZ, None.

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