Cooler conditions expected today with periods of gusty winds over the mountains and into the deserts through this evening. Conditions will warm Friday into the weekend, with temperatures peaking on Sunday. A pattern change is expected sometime mid to late next week. While there remains uncertainty in the details cooler, breezier, and wetter conditions are possible.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
Peak winds gusts as of 1 PM were in the 40 to 50 mph range, with the only exception at Whitewater which recorded a gust of 54 mph at 12:50 PM. Overall, most locations at 1 PM were running 3 to 13 degrees cooler than 1 PM yesterday. Valley locations are seeing the greatest change from yesterday, with the coast and some mountain locations actually running a degree or two warmer. Visible satellite was showing a few patches of low clouds lingering along the coast with high clouds moving northwest to southeast across the area.
Highs on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer west of the mountains, with similar temperatures to a few degrees of cooling in the deserts. An area of high pressure aloft will strengthen over the weekend. High pressure combined with periods of weak north to northeast winds will result in warming conditions. On Friday, highs west of the mountains will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Thursday. The warming will continue into Sunday, which is when the heat is expected to peak at 5 to 15 degrees above average, with the biggest departure from normal expected in the inland valleys. A degree or two of cooling is expected Monday, with continued cooling into the middle of the week. Additionally, the marine layer is expected to be shallower for Thursday through the weekend. Patchy low clouds may make into portions of the valleys through Friday, with low clouds staying mostly confined to coastal areas over the weekend.
An area of low pressure will develop off the US West Coast early next week and slowly move east. Faster solutions in the ensemble cluster analysis indicate that precipitation could occur as early as Wednesday next week, with slower solutions pushing any precipitation to Thursday or Friday. It's also worth noting that the slower solutions are also indicating higher amounts of rainfall are possible. Nbm daily chances for measurable rainfall are less than 10 percent on Tuesday, increase to around 20 percent for Wednesday, and 50 to 60 percent for Thursday and Friday. Probability of rainfall totals exceeding 1 inch Thursday into Friday are 25 to 35 percent in the mountains, highest chances in the San Bernardino mountains. While our confidence in precipitation occurring is increasing for the middle to end of next week, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the timing and amount expected. The strength and depth of the incoming trough will also have an impact in our temperature and wind forecast, with a stronger and deeper trough bringing cooler and windier conditions.
052100z, Coasts/Valleys, A few clouds around 1,500 ft to 3,500 ft MSL linger along coastal locations. Low cloud cigs will redevelop, more likely inland between 00-05Z Thursday, and increase in coverage in the coastal basin overnight. Low cloud bases are anticipated to be around 2,500-3,500 feet MSL, with tops around 4,500 feet MSL, and will likely be patchy in nature. Low cigs will begin to clear Thursday starting in coastal/inland San Diego County after 09Z, then begin to clear after 17Z for the Inland Empire and Orange County.
Mountains/Deserts, High clouds over the mountains and deserts today and tonight, clearing for Thursday afternoon. Southwest to west winds have increased with gusts up to 35 to 40 knots expected in the mountain ridges and into deserts, producing areas of strong up/downdrafts.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.
Surf will increase Thursday, peak Thursday night, and gradually diminish Friday. Surf of 4-7 feet is expected, locally higher on west-facing beaches, producing a high rip current risk. In addition, very high tides will combine with the elevated surf to increase the risk of minor tidal overflow Thursday and Friday.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through late Friday night for San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
