North to northeasterly offshore flow will develop today, becoming northeast to east with Santa Ana winds for Thursday and Friday strengthening and becoming more widespread with gusts to 35 to 45 mph on Thursday and 45 to 55 mph on Friday, then diminishing to 35 to 45 mph on Saturday. There will be a warming trend through Friday. Cooling will begin to spread inland on Sunday with greater cooling and a chance of showers for next Tuesday and Wednesday.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,
(today through Friday), High pressure aloft off the California coast will expand across northern California while a cutoff low pressure system develops over southern California and northern Baja. North to northeasterly offshore flow will develop today, becoming northeast to east with Santa Ana winds for Thursday and Friday strengthening and becoming more widespread.
ECMWF ensemble output for Campo continues to trend stronger with the Santa Ana winds for Friday with the winds for Saturday now nearly as strong as the winds for Thursday with the strongest winds expected on Friday. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index on Friday has gusts in the 80th to 90th percentile and locally into the 95th to 99th percentile. The ECMWF ensemble mean for Campo has uncalibrated gusts to 45 to 50 mph on Thursday and Saturday and 55 to 60 mph on Friday. Santa Ana winds could extended nearly to the coast in San Diego County on Friday.
There will be a warming trend with high temperatures for today warming as much as 8 to 12 degrees for the valleys and mountains. The warming will continue on Thursday with high temperatures warming from around 5 degrees to 10 to locally 15 degrees for coastal areas into the western valleys in San Diego County.
High temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees below average for the mountains and valleys with coastal areas as much as 12 to 18 degrees above average. High temperatures near the coast will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with the rest of the coast and valleys ranging for the lower to mid 80s in the far inland valleys to the upper 80s and lower 90s for inland coastal areas into the western valleys. High temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer or cooler than Thursday depending on location.
Moderate HeatRisk is expected for the coast into the western San Diego County valleys for Thursday through Saturday with Major HeatRisk for some coastal areas on Friday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for coastal areas for Thursday through Saturday.
(Saturday through Tuesday), High temperatures will begin to cool on Saturday with cooling spreading inland on Sunday and Monday. A low pressure system from the north could bring greater cooling and a chance of showers for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
141130z, SKC and VFR today and tonight. Areas of northeast winds intermittently gusting to 30 mph in foothills through 16Z. Same winds in same areas increasing after 10Z Thursday.
Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.
A prevailing southerly swell will continue through Thursday, generating surf 3-5 feet with sets to 6 feet, along with strong rip currents. Late morning high tides near 6.5 feet will continue through Thursday, producing minor coastal flooding. Tides are expected fall below 6.5 ft MHHW after the Thursday morning high tide, diminishing the threat for coastal flooding.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains- San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys.
PZ, None.
