Ation, Marine, and Beaches discussions,
High temperatures today are expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday for most locations. An additional 3 to 5 degrees of warming is expected on Tuesday, which will bring conditions to a few degrees above average for inland areas and up to 8 degrees above average for the coast.
High pressure aloft will build over the Pacific for the middle to end of the week. Through the forecast period the ridge axis is expected to stay to our west, but with California in it's periphery highs will increase. Warmest conditions will likely be Thursday through Saturday, with highs 6 to 12 degrees above average. Areas of moderate HeatRisk are expected for the Inland Empire and the deserts, with more localized areas of moderate HeatRisk in the far eastern San Diego county valleys. Widespread moderate with areas of localized major HeatRisk expected in the low deserts on Saturday. Based on current forecast, high temperatures do not look record breaking but some low temperature records will be in jeopardy.
The position of the ridge could allow for some subtropical moisture to sneak into the southwestern United States by the end of the week. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF show a notable increase in precipitable water into the low deserts Friday, with less but still elevated precipitable water Saturday and Sunday. The forecast looks to remain dry at this time so it looks like the main impact from this moisture surge would be tempering the highs across the deserts and an increase in high clouds. Current forecast for the low deserts is 108-112 degrees Friday and Saturday, but if the moisture surge materializes high temperatures would likely be lower than that.
There is some uncertainty with highs Sunday, especially for the desert areas. Highs in the desert have the potential to be hotter on Sunday compared to Friday/Saturday if the moisture surge is significantly weaker. There is higher confidence that areas west of the mountains will cool a degree or two by Sunday.
For much of this week the marine layer is expected to be on the shallower side, staying confined to coastal areas.
Warming conditions expected this week. Hottest conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday for most locations, potentially into Sunday for the deserts. Moderate HeatRisk is expected across inland areas. The marine layer is expected to get shallower, staying confined to coastal areas through much of this week.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, Updated Aviation, Marine, and Beaches discussions,
High temperatures today are expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday for most locations. An additional 3 to 5 degrees of warming is expected on Tuesday, which will bring conditions to a few degrees above average for inland areas and up to 8 degrees above average for the coast.
High pressure aloft will build over the Pacific for the middle to end of the week. Through the forecast period the ridge axis is expected to stay to our west, but with California in it's periphery highs will increase. Warmest conditions will likely be Thursday through Saturday, with highs 6 to 12 degrees above average. Areas of moderate HeatRisk are expected for the Inland Empire and the deserts, with more localized areas of moderate HeatRisk in the far eastern San Diego county valleys. Widespread moderate with areas of localized major HeatRisk expected in the low deserts on Saturday. Based on current forecast, high temperatures do not look record breaking but some low temperature records will be in jeopardy.
The position of the ridge could allow for some subtropical moisture to sneak into the southwestern United States by the end of the week. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF show a notable increase in precipitable water into the low deserts Friday, with less but still elevated precipitable water Saturday and Sunday. The forecast looks to remain dry at this time so it looks like the main impact from this moisture surge would be tempering the highs across the deserts and an increase in high clouds. Current forecast for the low deserts is 108-112 degrees Friday and Saturday, but if the moisture surge materializes high temperatures would likely be lower than that.
There is some uncertainty with highs Sunday, especially for the desert areas. Highs in the desert have the potential to be hotter on Sunday compared to Friday/Saturday if the moisture surge is significantly weaker. There is higher confidence that areas west of the mountains will cool a degree or two by Sunday.
For much of this week the marine layer is expected to be on the shallower side, staying confined to coastal areas.
082330z, Coast/Valleys, Low clouds based at 2000-2500 feet MSL will cover KSAN/KCRQ first and gradually move north overnight, locally into the inland valleys. Bases will drop to 1500-2000 feet and local inland vis 0-5SM. Scatter out Tuesday, around 16-17Z.
Mountains/Deserts, Thin high clouds tonight clearing Tuesday. Westerly winds with gusts 25-40 kts through mountain passes and locally into deserts through 09Z. Pockets of MOD up/downdrafts and LLWS in lee of mountains.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.
Surf and rip current activity to increase tonight into Tuesday morning as a southerly swell arrives. Surf peaks Tue-Wed with surf 4- 7 feet with sets up to 12 feet at south-facing beaches, then gradually diminishes late this week. See the Beach Hazards Statement for more details.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
