Dry and slightly warmer today. Cooler, cloudier, and windier with chances of precipitation along and west of the mountains over the weekend. Warmer with a shallower marine layer expected next week.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
Update: Latest satellite imagery shows the marine layer being lock in across the majority of the coastal and inland valleys. Cloud bases have also risen several hundred feet and thickened up slightly. This should all continue to scatter out, from east to west. There could be some locations right along the immediate coast from La Jolla down to Point Loma which remain mostly cloudy to overcast at times throughout the afternoon, otherwise most places will become mostly clear. Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday. Clouds will begin to regather and fill back in for most of the same locations by later this evening, with bases remaining around the same heights between 1000-1500 ft MSL, and then may drop slightly throughout the night. Low level cloud coverage will continue to increase on Saturday, while lowering and thickening. Some drizzle will be possible by late tomorrow evening through Saturday morning.
The forecast looks to remain on track in terms of a cooldown coming this weekend due to further troughing, which will allow for surface winds to pick up and lead to possible Wind Advisories for. The higher elevations. There could also be some drizzle and/or light rain as well by later in the evening on Saturday and into the morning of Sunday. Strong and gusty winds across the high deserts and for portions of the low deserts within gap flow areas will also result in some areas of blowing dust at times, especially during the afternoon hours on Saturday. This trough will also usher in some cooler temperatures, with highs around 10 to 15 degrees below the seasonal average for this time of year. There also still appears to be a general consensus between the ensembles and deterministic models alike which shows that a ridge will be returning and building back in next week over the western states and leading to quite a rebound in temperatures, and back above the seasonal average by the middle of next week. The marine layer will also become more shallow and disperse by this time.
(Previous discussion submitted at 309 AM):
(today through Saturday night), The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for inland areas another 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday with not much change for Friday. High temperatures today will be a few degrees below average with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s near the coast to the mid 70s to lower 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The marine layer will remain near 2000 to 2500 feet deep into Friday with night and morning low clouds extending inland into portions of the inland valleys.
A low pressure system from the northwest will bring cooler weather for the weekend with stronger and gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures for inland areas will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Saturday with another 5 degrees of cooling for the mountains and deserts on Sunday. There will be periods of stronger and gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts for Saturday afternoon into Sunday. The strongest winds are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening with gusts to 40 to 50 mph and isolated gusts to 65 to 75 mph in the northern Coachella Valley below the San Gorgonio Pass.
The marine layer will deepen to 5000 to 5500 feet during the weekend with coastal low clouds extending well inland and onto the coastal slopes of the mountains. There could be some light precipitation for coastal areas for late Friday night into Saturday morning as the marine layer deepens. The most likely time for precipitation is on Saturday night with the most likely location for San Diego County from the coast to the mountains. Most amounts are expected to be light with chances for one-tenth inch or more of rainfall ranging from around 5 percent near the coast to 10 to 15 percent on the coastal slopes of the mountains.
(Sunday through Wednesday), The mountains and deserts will cool another 5 degrees on Sunday with high temperatures on Sunday as much as 15 to 20 degrees below average for the mountains. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower to mid 60s near the coast to the 60s and lower 70s for the in the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A slight chance of mostly light showers will continue into Sunday morning, mostly for San Diego County from the coast to the mountains. Gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts will continue into early Sunday evening, but the winds will not be quite as strong as those for Saturday afternoon and evening.
Dry weather will follow for next week. Warming will begin on Monday and continue on Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures as much as 5 to 10 degrees above average on Wednesday for the coast and valleys. On Wednesday, high temperatures will range from the lower to mid 70s near the coast to around 90 for the Inland Empire with 100 to 104 for the lower deserts.
A deep marine layer on Monday will become shallower with night and morning coastal low clouds not extending inland much past the western valleys by Wednesday.
151600z, Coast/Valleys, BKN-OVC low clouds with bases 1500-2000 ft MSL at the coast and in the western valleys will scatter out through 17Z. Patchy low clouds may linger near the immediate coast into the afternoon. Low clouds with bases 1000-1500 ft MSL will become more widespread after 03Z, with the potential to reach the Inland Empire by 08Z Fri. There is a 40 percent chance of low clouds reaching KONT by 12Z Fri. Low clouds expected to clear from the valleys 16-18Z Fri, with the potential for slower clearing along the coast Fri AM.
Mountains/Deserts, Mostly clear skies today, except for some cumulus based around 8000-10000 feet MSL over the mountains 18-01Z.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday morning. Stronger winds and higher seas are expected late Saturday into Sunday. Westerly winds will gust 20 to 25 kt with wind-driven waves 7 to 10 feet for outer coastal waters. Wind gusts 20 kt or less and wind-driven waves up to 6 feet expected for inner coastal waters. Hazardous boating conditions for small craft look likely in the outer coastal waters. Winds and waves gradually subside later Sunday into Monday.
Elevated to locally high surf will impact beaches late Sunday into Monday. Surf height of 4-7 feet with sets to 8 feet possible along west-facing beaches. Increased surf will result in an increased risk of stronger rip currents.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
