Weak to moderate Santa Ana winds will continue through the weekend. High temperatures 5-15 degrees above normal for the coastal areas and valleys, warmest on Sunday. Winds weaken into next week as high pressure moves into the area, keeping temperatures above normal. A weather system may near the area by later next week, bringing cooler weather with a chance for rain.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,
Skies are mostly clear this morning. Surface pressure gradients are trending stronger offshore, currently around -9.4 mb SAN-TPH and -3.3 mb SAN-DAG. Breezy northeast winds gusting 25-35 mph continue below the passes and canyons and on the coastal mountain slopes. Winds will strengthen slightly through the morning with isolated gusts to 45 mph, then weaken during the afternoon and evening. Winds turn more easterly on Sunday with breezy conditions continuing along the San Diego and Riverside County coastal mountain slopes and passes. Warming trend continues into Sunday when highs will be anywhere from 5-15 degrees above normal, with the greatest departure from normal in the coastal areas. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s to around 90 for the coastal areas and valleys, 60s to low 70s in the mountains, low to mid 70s in the high desert, and mid 80s in the low desert.
The upper level ridge weakens Monday and Tuesday with much weaker offshore flow, allowing for a couple degrees of cooling each day and otherwise benign weather. An upper level ridge amplifies across the Southwest on Wednesday ahead of a digging trough off the West Coast, bringing minor warming.
Solutions diverge around Thursday as about 58% of the global ensemble members maintain upper level ridging and warm/dry weather in Southern California, while 19% have a trough far enough south along the coast for some light precipitation and much cooler weather, and the remaining 21% with a less amplified trough for less cooling but still dry weather. As we head into Friday, there is better agreement for weak troughing over So Cal for more cooling and a 15% chance of light precipitation. Saturday becomes questionable again as ensemble members differ on the evolution of the short wave in the southern stream of the jet, which will dictate how much if any additional precipitation occurs, though the general consensus shows at least light precipitation (20-30% chance). High confidence that any Atmospheric Rivers will remain to the north late next week, so chances of at least moderate precipitation (0.50" or more) is 20% or less for the mountains westward.
071800, SKC and VFR regionwide. This afternoon, W/NW winds for coastal areas; E/NE winds gusting 25-35 kts to continue for coastal facing slopes and downslope of wind corridors, weakening gradually this evening. E/NE winds increase once again (gusts 25-35 kts) Sunday after 12z west of the Banning Pass and along west facing slopes, down to inland SD County and reaching the coast locally.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.
High tides will exceed 7 feet each morning through Tuesday, peaking Sunday and Monday at 7.4-7.6 feet. A northwest swell at 2-3 feet with a period of 14-15 seconds will keep surf at 3-6 feet along west- facing beaches through Tuesday, with 3 foot waves more likely along south-facing beaches. This NW swell will increase to 3-4 feet on Monday, which will bring sets to 7 feet on west-facing beaches.
The combination of high tides and elevated surf will generate minor coastal flooding, with chances for moderate coastal flooding along west-facing beaches where surf will be higher. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through noon Tuesday and contains more details.
Reminder, tides mentioned have been corrected to reflect the current trends in actual tide observations.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
