Patchy marine layer low clouds and fog can be expected this morning as mid to high level clouds from Tropical Cyclone Marie move over the area this weekend. Periods of light to locally moderate precipitation are possible for today. There is a slight (5-10%) chance of thunderstorms, mainly over the San Bernardino Mountains and High Desert on Sunday afternoon. Warming high and low temperatures through the middle of next week. Slight chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms return for mid-week.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,
Today through tomorrow night,
Increasing mid to high level clouds with some embedded high'lofted showers are beginning to develop over the region, which is funneling up from the transverse banding associated with Hurricane Marie, which is now located roughly just over 700 miles to the southwest of San Diego. This will continue to track towards the northwest slowly and continue to usher in more mid level moisture ahead of a longwave trough upstream and with some forcing, which will result in better development of bands of light to moderate rain. The best convergence aloft will be located over the San Bernardino Mountains, with the highest probability of measurable rain, and possibly an embedded thunderstorm or two. Most of the lighter showers that are currently over San Diego County this morning will transition further north by later in the day. Given the timing and position of where these bands of light to moderate rain establish themselves in a southwest to northeast orientation. Total rainfall amounts may reach possibly over an inch for the the San Bernardino Mountains, and then tapering to lesser amounts from around a half an inch for the higher terrain of the mountains in Riverside/northern San Diego counties. Rainfall amounts will generally be 0.20 to 0.30 inches within the IE, with slightly lesser amounts to the coastal areas of Orange County, and drastically tapering off to lesser amounts over San Diego County (with possibly some areas over southern San Diego County receiving little to no precip). These bands of rain will eventually dissipate by later in the evening. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side today, around and slightly below the seasonal average for this time of year, with extensive cloud cover over the region. For tomorrow, temperatures will rebound back to around average, with drier conditions and only a very slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the mountains and adjacent deserts.
Tuesday through Friday,
Drier conditions will return by Tuesday, with most of the moisture associated with Hurricane Marie exiting the region, and only some lingering moisture being advected up some the south which may allow for a slight chance of a afternoon shower or storm to develop over the mountains. As the ridge continues to build into the middle of the week, with will warm temperatures back above the seasonal average, with the warmest day peaking on Wednesday, which will find high temperatures returning back into the low to mid 90s for the inland areas. Wednesday will also bring a better bout of mid level moisture being advected in from the east, with a better chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms returning for the mountains and adjacent deserts, along with a gradual cooldown throughout the rest of the work week. The marine layer will likely also continue to be displaced and patchy throughout this next week.
061200z, Coast/Valleys/Mountains, Mid/high clouds around 10,000- 20,000ft MSL currently over San Diego and eastern Riverside counties will continue to increase with some lowering cigs doqn to 6000-8000 ft MSL . Scattered light rain showers will be possible at times, mainly in the mountains, this morning. Rain chances increase into the afternoon with the highest chances over Orange County, the Inland Empire, the high deserts and the San Bernardino and Riverside County mountains 16-23Z. Isolated TSRA over mountain areas, especially in the San Bernardino mountains, 18Z Sunday-01Z Monday. Vis restrictions of 4-6SM and BKN-OVC CIGs at 5,000ft MSL or lower in areas of heavier rain. Chances for rain decrease after 01Z Monday.
Deserts, Mid/high level clouds AOA 10,000-20,000ft over the south deserts are making their way into the high deserts, and will persist through the TAF period. VCSH will be possible in the deserts after 12z, with instances of -SHRA in the High Desert. Otherwise, VFR with no significant impacts expected.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.
A large south swell from Hurricane Marie is set to peak today into Monday before gradually diminishing Tuesday. This will result in elevated to high surf and strong rip and longshore currents at the majority of beaches. Additionally, waves will occasionally run much farther up the beach than expected, especially during increasing and high tides.
For south and southwest-facing beaches, expecting high surf 6-10 feet. This includes Orange County and north San Diego County beaches. For west-facing beaches, expecting elevated surf 4-7 feet. This includes most of southern San Diego County beaches.
High surf combined with high astronomical tides 6.2 to about 6.8 feet will lead to tidal overflow and coastal flooding through Tuesday during evening high tides, especially for south and southwest-facing beaches as well as low-lying areas.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
High Surf Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
