Cooler weather will continue for the upcoming week as more weather systems continue to pass through the region. Showers will end this morning over much of our area, bringing a dry weekend for many. The next weather system will move into the region on Monday into early Tuesday, bring areas of light showers. Wednesday will be mainly dry, before another weather system moves through the region later on Wednesday through potentially Friday with a chance for additional precipitation.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF CYCLE,
A weak frontal boundary will continue to move through into the morning hours from northwest to southeast. This will bring additional light rainfall to areas mainly along and west of the mountains. Hrrr shows some spots may see rain rates near one third of an inch per hour as the boundary moves through. Nbm paints a general 25-40% chance of seeing over 0.25" in total from this when all is said and done by mid morning. Hi-res guidance shows some showers may stick around the San Diego metro and mountain areas into Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, most areas west of the mountains will start to clear from north to south with the best chance of clouds lingering in western San Diego county into the early evening. A lull in the action is expected into Sunday as a weak ridge moves over the area. This will bring sunnier and drier conditions with highs a bit warmer with temperatures near to around 5 degrees below seasonal averages.
Another low pressure system will swoop by southwestern British Columbia on Sunday. Models indicate a trough from this system cutting off from the mean flow and pushing southward over our region on Monday and Tuesday. There still remains some slight differences in timing but chances for precipitation will increase at first near the coast Monday morning with better chances into the valleys and mountains by Monday evening through sometime on Tuesday. As mentioned in yesterday's discussion, model guidance continues to show a drying trend with this system indicating lighter rain and high mountain snow totals. Some resort towns may be able to see light snow on Tuesday morning as the system passes through, but this still remains preliminary.
A drier, albeit short, period of weather will occur later on Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday. Yet another low pressure system will move across the State later in the week. Gfs/ECMWF solutions are beginning to show a better start time with precipitation with this system, beginning sometime later Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. How far south the system goes is still in question but solutions are beginning to show signs of it moving closer to our region, making it more favorable for more spells of wet weather. Confidence is growing that this will bring more colder air and greater amounts of precipitation than the system on Monday/Tuesday. Though amounts are still uncertain, this system has an increased chance to bring snowfall to some of our higher mountain communities. Model guidance begins to diverge on the ending time of the rain/mountain snow, some models keeping the low pressure system around until later on Thursday or even Friday of next week.
Temperatures will be fairly similar this week with near average readings at the coast and cooler than normal for inland areas, especially as we progress deeper into next week. As these weather systems each move near the area, expect breezy onshore winds at the immediate coast, mountains, and deserts to accompany them.
141200z, Coast/Valleys, SCT -SHRA for a few more hours this morning. VIS may be reduced 3-5 SM at times with CIGS 1000-2500 ft MSL. Clouds scatter out later this morning, becoming VFR and SKC by this afternoon for most TAF sites, although KSAN may see BKN clouds through much of the afternoon. Mostly clear skies for tonight.
Mountains/Deserts, SCT -SHRA this morning, with cloud bases 3-6 kft MSL obscuring higher terrain. Gusty W/SW winds this morning with gusts to 25-35 knots over typically windy ridges, desert slopes, and through passes. Winds will gradually taper off through this morning. Better chance for BKN clouds to continue across the San Diego Co mountains through this afternoon, with mostly clear skies by tonight.
Southwesterly winds gusting to 25 kts and seas 5 to 9 feet continue this morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through this afternoon. Winds and seas diminish late today into Sunday, before increasing again Monday afternoon, with gusts up to 30 kts and seas 8-12 feet for Monday evening through Wednesday morning.
A series of swells (15-17 seconds) from the west-northwest (280-290 degrees) will generate periods of elevated and high surf through next week. The current northwest swell is producing surf of 4 to 7 feet with higher sets. Surf could peak around 6 to 10 feet later today into Sunday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect until 10 am Sunday, with dangerous conditions for both swimming and surfing. Surf begins to subside Sunday afternoon but will remain elevated for west-facing beaches into Monday morning. Another northwesterly swell will arrive on Monday, extending the threat for high surf and strong rip currents into mid-week.
Ca, High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.
