Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

438 am PDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Synopsis

This long-duration heatwave will continue for the coast and valleys through Thursday and through Friday for the lower deserts. Cooling will spread inland for Friday and Saturday with Saturday high temperatures still around 5 degrees above average. For Sunday through early next week, a low pressure system along the West Coast and off the coast of Baja may draw moisture from what was Hurricane Rachel northeastward and into the area with a chance of showers.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,

Short Term

(today through Thursday), Widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk for the coast and valleys for today will decrease to Moderate to Major HeatRisk on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will still be 12 to 18 degrees above average for the coast and valleys and 10 to 15 degrees above average for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the 80s near the coast to the upper 90s to 104 for the Inland Empire with 104 to 108 for the lower deserts with Major HeatRisk for the lower deserts.

A shallow marine layer will return around early Wednesday or early Thursday and slowly deepen into the weekend with the return of low clouds and fog initially in the form of dense fog near the coast.

Long Term

(Friday through Monday), High pressure across the area will weaken as low pressure develops along the West Coast and the adjacent eastern Pacific. High temperatures will cool a few degrees on Friday and another 4 to 8 degrees on Saturday with high temperatures on Saturday still around 5 degrees above average. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s near the coast to the mid 80s to lower 90s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the upper 90s.

On Sunday into early next week, that low pressure system along the West Coast and off the coast of Baja may draw moisture from what was Hurricane Rachel northeastward and into the area with a chance of showers. For early Sunday to early Tuesday, the NBM chance for 0.10 inch or more of rainfall is 30 to 40 percent for the coast to the mountains with the chance for 0.50 or more 15 to 25 percent and the chance for 1 inch or more 10 to 15 percent.

High temperatures for the coast and valleys will cool from the mid 70s to lower 80s on Sunday to the 70s on Monday with the lower deserts cooling from the lower 90s on Sunday to the 80s on Monday.

Aviation

061130z, SCT to locally BKN clouds based at 8-12 kft, staying mostly inland after 18Z. Patchy low clouds and fog based around 500-900 feet MSL vcnty KSAN after 03Z into Wednesday morning, but cigs at KSAN not likely.

Marine

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.

Beaches

Increasing south swell will create surf of 3-5 feet with sets to 6 feet at south and southwest facing beaches starting Wednesday. Strong rip currents are expected. In addition, this elevated surf will combine with high tides during the mornings and evenings to generate local coastal flooding and beach erosion. The Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory contain the details.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM PDT this afternoon through Friday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Friday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ, None.

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