14/836 PM.
Light showers have ended this evening, except for lingering rain and snow chances in the Grapevine region through Saturday morning. Dry and warmer weather will follow for the weekend as high pressure aloft builds over the region. Some cooling will develop early next week with a chance of showers between Monday and Tuesday, then a drying trend will establish with some gusty northerly winds at times.
(Fri-Mon), 14/221 PM.
A weak system is moving through the area today with little to no impacts expected, at least at lower elevations. Rain rates have increased as expected early this afternoon but are still mostly under a tenth of an inch per hour. And rain totals are under a quarter inch across LA/Ventura Counties and under a half in most other areas. Highest amounts are in the SLO portion of the Santa Lucias where amounts were around 0.75". Snow levels have risen to between 5000 and 6000 feet this afternoon with light snow above that and a winter weather advisory is in effect. Gusty winds will continue in the Antelope Valley through this evening and likely at times this weekend.
Temperatures today have been quite chilly with most coast/valley areas still only in the upper 40s to lower 50s. There will likely be many record low highs today as a result.
Light rain or showers will taper off by this evening, if not sooner with dry conditions this weekend. The one exception to that will be the Grapevine region where increasing northwest flow following this storm will interact with moisture trapped on the the north side of the Transverse range to generate some light precip, and snow at or above around 4000 feet. This could produce some light snow or icy conditions over the Grapevine on Interstate 5 through the early morning hours Saturday.
Otherwise, a relatively quiet weekend with a weak high pressure ridge aloft creating warmer temperatures and clear skies. There will be some breezy northwest winds in some areas, notably southwest SB County, and the mountains.
On Monday High pressure shifts to the east and the models bring another weak system into the area. Areas north of Pt Conception are looking at rain amounts around a quarter inch. South of there amounts drop off with little to no rain expected in LA/Ventura Counties.
(Tue-Fri), 14/211 PM.
The remainder of next week looks dry with high temperatures within a couple degrees of normal. Still some chilly overnight temperatures near the freezing mark across the interior valleys and low to mid 40s elsewhere. A breezy northwest wind pattern continue through most of the week, mostly impacting southwest Santa Barbara County, the Central Coast, and the mountains.
15/0343z.
At 2250Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package due to uncertainty in winds and changing cigs. Winds are expected to shift north and become gusty in some locations, and the timing of these strong winds may be off by a few hours. Gusts could peak 5-10 kts higher than forecast, and my end earlier than forecast.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Generally VFR to MVFR conditions are expected. East wind component (10kts+) expected thru 02Z Sat (+/- 1 hour). Otherwise no significant east winds are expected. Lower confidence in timing and strength of north winds early Saturday.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Generally VFR to MVFR conditions are expected. Lower confidence in timing and strength of north winds early Saturday.
14/840 PM.
Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will persist through Saturday night, with SCA level seas for the outer waters. Nearshore, SCA winds are expected through Saturday afternoon or evening, with short period seas. By Sunday morning, winds and seas should be below SCA levels and last through early Monday. Thereafter, NW winds will increase to high-end SCA levels with a 30-50% chance of GALE force wind gusts, especially for the outer waters south of Point Conception and around the Northern Channel Islands thru Tuesday.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 87-349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM PDT Saturday for zones 353-376>382. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones 650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
