21/532 PM.
Tuesday and Wednesday, warming is expected across the entire area as high pressure builds over the region. Nighttime through morning low clouds and fog may return to some coastal areas over the next few days.
(tdy-Thu), 22/237 AM.
Very quiet weather today. Skies will be sunny save for some low clouds and dense fog along the beaches of the Central Coast. Weaker offshore flow this morning and stronger onshore flow this afternoon will bring several degrees of cooling to the coasts and lower vlys. Rising hgts will warm the interior by 2 to 4 degrees. Max temps today will end up several degrees blo normal across the coasts while the vlys, mtns and interior will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
Stronger offshore flow will develop tonight and this will keep any low clouds from developing. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the next 7 as hgts increase from a building ridge and offshore flow combine to bring 2 to 5 degrees of warming to the area. The coasts will end up in the 70s while the vlys will warm into the 80s and lower 90s.
An eddy is forecast to develop Thursday morning and this will bring marine layer stratus to the coasts and lower vlys. Offshore flow will develop across the Central Coast and keep that area cloud free. The deeper marine layer will cool areas south of Point Conception by about 4 degrees while the offshore flow across the Central Coast will warm that area 2 to 4 degrees.
Diurnally forced breezy northwest to northeast winds with continue each morning to evening across the interior and southwest Santa Barbara County, but still safely below advisory levels.
(Fri-Mon), 22/326 AM.
The ridge will persist into Friday with 586 dam hgts. At the sfc onshore flow will increase both to the north and east. Marine layer stratus will cover most of the csts/vlys in the morning. Mid level clouds will move in from the northwest and skies will be partly cloudy at times through the day. Most areas will cool a degree or 2, but the Central Coast with the switch to onshore flow will cool 3 to 6 degrees.
The ridge will breakdown on Saturday and hgts will lower. The lower hgts will cool the interior but the offshore flow will weaken and this will allow a few degrees of warming for the csts/vlys. There will be another round of marine layer stratus in the morning and the mid level clouds will continue making it a partly cloudy day.
There has been no change in confidence (still low) for the last two days of the fcst (Sun and Mon). Both mdls bring a fairly sharp pos tilt trof through the area. The EC is much more progressive with the trof while the GFS is lagging 12 to 18 hours behind. Because the EC is faster it develops a moderate northerly wind pattern on Monday. Both mdls advertise enough mid and high level clouds to call the skies partly to mostly cloudy. The troffing will likely keep the low cloud pattern going for both days. Good confidence that Sunday will be cooler. The official forecast shows good cooling on Monday but the faster EC solution would likely bring warmer temps than fcst.
22/0932z.
Around 0645Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 2300 feet with a temperature around 22 degrees Celsius.
Through 16Z, there is a high-to-likely chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions at Central Coast terminals through 16Z, and a low chance of IFR to MVFR visibilities at Ventura County coastal terminals and KSBA. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
KLAX, VFR conditions are expected through the period through at least 08Z Wednesday, then there is a 20 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions. Any east winds are expected to remain less than 7 knots.
KBUR, VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind impacts are expected at this time.
22/814 AM.
For the Outer Waters (10 SM off the Central Coast south to San Nicolas Island), moderate confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing (60-80% chance) thru at least late Wednesday, with highest confidence in the afternoon thru evening hours today and Wednesday. There is a low chance (10-20%) of low end, brief Gales from Pt Piedras Blancas to Pt Conception Wednesday afternoon thru late night. There is a 40-60% chance that SCA winds will continue thru late Thursday, with best chances from the Channel Islands to Pt Piedras Blancas. Then, winds will likely drop below SCA level thru Sat afternoon, then a moderate chance for SCA winds over the remainder of the weekend.
For the inner waters off the Central Coast, low to moderate confidence in SCA winds in the afternoon thru evening hours today thru Sunday, with the exception of Friday.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conds not expected thru the rest of the week, then then in the afternoon thru evening hours Saturday and Sunday, there is a 30-60% chance of SCA winds, with higher confidence Sunday.
For the inner waters off the Orange and Los Angeles County coasts, SCA conds are not expected thru the week. Locally gusty winds to 20 kt are likely in the San Pedro channel today and tomorrow afternoon thru evening.
Patchy dense fog is likely in the late night thru morning hours thus week, with highest chances in the northern waters.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
