30/131 PM.
Cooler conditions are expected through at least Tuesday with some areas of morning low clouds and fog. A very slow warming trend is expected later in the week.
(Sun-Wed), 30/725 PM.
***UPDATE***
The cooling trend was evident today as temps were generally around 3-6 degrees cooler compared to yesterday, with a few exceptions over some interior areas and mountains as high increased a few degrees here and there. Expecting a little more cooling the next couple of days, bringing the region to around 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals for most areas away from the immediate coasts. It should also start feeling less humid for those away from the immediate coasts, but the very warm ocean temps will keep things feeling quite humid across coastal areas.
Marine layer stratus is poised to move into the Central Coast once again tonight, but once again the marine layer south of Point Conception is no where to be found. There is a slightly better chance for low clouds to form over southern LA County late tonight compared to recent nights, but confidence is quite low in this outcome. Additionally, chances for showers on Tuesday continue to decrease, thus the forecast no longer reflects any rain chances.
***From Previous Discussion***
Cooler weather will continue through at least mid week as troughing replaces the strong ridge along the West coast along with moderate onshore flow. Humidities will be returning to normal as well as PW's drop way down to around 0.5". Highs will be more inline with typical late summer conditions, if not slightly below normal. May have some coastal night and morning low clouds and fog but those should clear by late morning. Also some low grade (sub-advisory level) Sundowner winds the next few evenings.
(Thu-Sun), 30/127 PM.
Overall a very quiet 4-7 period ending next Saturday with temperatures in most areas either near or slightly below normal. Maybe a very minor (1-2 degree) warming trend Thu through Sat but in general much improved from the last week.
Still some major concerns for next week with a fair amount of ensemble and deterministic solutions indicating the potential for a tropical system to move up the coast from Baja into southern California. By next Sunday the average of all the ensemble member PW's is 1.5" with several individual members over 2". Still a lot of time for adjustments to the track but certainly there is the potential for heavy rain, strong south swells, and overall tropical conditions by next Sunday.
31/0215z.
Around 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep with a weak inversion up to 3100 feet with a temperature of 25 degrees C.
Fair confidence in KSBP and KSMX TAFs, although low confidence in arrival times which may be 2-4 hours later than forecast. There is a 20% chance for VLIFR conds from 10Z-17Z Mon.
Moderate to low confidence in KSMO, KLAX, KOXR, and KLGB, due to potential for MVFR conditions after 10Z. Cigs may be brief or intermittent.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF through 09Z Mon, then moderate to low confidence. There is a 40% chance of conds remaining VFR through the period. Otherwise, BKN008-012 CIGs could arrive as early as 10Z Mon. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 7 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF with VFR conditions expected.
30/116 PM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest winds (20-30 knots) and steep, choppy seas for the outer waters through late tonight. These hazardous conditions will reach into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and into the Santa Barbara Channel today, especially during the afternoon/evening hours. Local wind gusts may approach 35 knots near Point Conception through tonight. Conditions are expected to improve Monday with only local SCA level wind gusts near Point Conception Monday and Tuesday. Chances for more widespread SCA winds increase Wednesday into the remainder of the week.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 645-650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
