Breezy trade winds today will be on the increase tonight, with locally strong winds Wednesday through Thursday as a new high builds north of the state. Relatively dry conditions are expected through Wednesday with additional windward showers moving in Wednesday night into Thursday as a band of moisture moves from north to south across the state. Moderate to locally breezy trades will return over the weekend.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds today will increase to locally strong trade winds tonight. Showers focused over windward and mauka areas will bring passing MVFR conditions, mainly during the overnight hours and early in the morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 7000 feet within the lee of higher terrain. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days as locally breezy trade winds persist.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations for windward areas of Maui. Other windward areas may also experience mountain obscurations due to upstream showers.
High pressure will build north of Hawaii through Wednesday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will become strong across all Hawaiian waters tonight. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory expands in area to cover all coastal waters after 6 PM and has been extended through Wednesday night. Seas are also forecast to exceed 10 feet beginning Wednesday with the arrival of a large north-northwest swell. Meanwhile, a front drops south into the northern offshore waters tonight and weakens to a trough. The trough reaches the central waters by Wednesday night and leads to increased shower activity into Thursday. Winds will slightly taper off this weekend as another front approaches from the north.
A moderate, medium-period bump to northwest swell will fade later today and tonight. A much larger northwest to north-northwest swell generated by the dynamic fetch of a gale force low near Kamchatka will arrive on Wednesday and will bring at least advisory level surf to exposed north and west facing shores as it builds through the day and peaks Wednesday night. Surf will decrease to advisory levels on Thursday as the swell begins to fade and then fall below advisory levels by Friday. A northwest reinforcement is expected to arrive this weekend which could push surf back to advisory levels.
Surf along east facing shores will increase for Wednesday as trade winds strengthen tonight. East shore surf remains elevated and choppy through Friday, then may diminish slightly this weekend. A small, long-period south swell may bring a small bump to south shore surf on Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
