Trades will increase to moderate to breezy levels by this afternoon and continue through the weekend. An area of deeper moisture will approach the Big Island from the east late Saturday, then move westward through Monday and bring an enhancement of shower activity to mainly windward portions of Maui and the Big Island. A typical stable trade wind pattern will return by Tuesday of next week.
Trade winds are forecast to ramp up into the weekend as a surface high pressure system to our north strengthens and pushes slightly closer to Hawaii. Stability will also be increasing today as an upper low to the west lifts away. Leeward turbulence will likely increase tonight or Saturday, but no turbulence AIRMET is needed now.
A band of low clouds and showers is moving onto windward Big Island this morning, but will become more diffuse as it spreads westward. Mountain obscurations/AIRMET Sierra will be possible for this area as this moisture tracks in.
Issued at 355 AM HST Fri Aug 7 2026 Moderate trades are forecast to increase to fresh to locally strong by this afternoon as surface troughing to the northeast weakens today and an approaching trough to the southeast enhances the local pressure gradient. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued beginning 2 pm this afternoon for locally strong trades through the typical windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island. Dissipation of the trough to the northeast combined with renewed trough development south of the islands and strengthening high pressure to the northeast will keep fresh to locally strong trades in place through at least the weekend. Some weakening of the trades is possible early next week associated with transient mid-latitude troughing.
Background medium and long period energy will produce small surf for south facing shores today. A series of larger, medium to long period south swells arrive beginning on Saturday, causing surf to trend up for south and west facing shores this weekend into early next week. A moderate, long period south swell will peak near the High Surf Advisory threshold by the middle of next week.
Along east facing shores, trade wind swell and moderate trades will support surf slightly below seasonal averages. Surf will build this weekend in response to strengthening trade winds. Surf along north shores remains flat to tiny through the period, with a slight bump possible on Sunday from a small, medium-period north swell.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
