A powerful Kona storm will impact the state through this weekend resulting in potential flash flooding, damaging winds, and strong to severe thunderstorms. Impacts will generally be felt over the western end of the state first and then spread east with time. The peak of this event is forecast to be Friday and Saturday.
Issued at 826 AM HST Wed Mar 11 2026
Moderate to heavy showers will persist through much of the day today across the state with prolonged periods of MVFR conditions with tempo IFR/LIFR conditions at times under heavier showers. Increasing instability today may allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop, but confidence was not high enough to mention TS specifically in any of the TAFs.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for mountain obscuration for all of Kauai, Oahu and Maui Counties, as well as the south and southeast portions of the Big Island.
AIRMET ZULU remains in effect for light icing from Kauai through Maui County for FL 130-240.
AIRMET TANGO is in effect for moderate turbulence over Kauai and Oahu as the VAD wind profile shows strong southerly winds have spread across the area.
AIRMET TANGO is also in effect across the state for moderate turbulence associated with this Kona low. Upper level turbulence is generally expected to decrease towards the evening with the exception of areas with thunderstorms.
A powerful Kona storm will result in heavy rain, thunderstorms, and rough seas to the islands and adjacent coastal waters through the rest of this week. Early this morning, bands of heavy rainfall are observed on radar imagery moving from south to north within a southerly wind regime across the Hawaiian waters, especially across leeward waters. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds were observed in a late evening advanced scatterometer pass, and this fresh to locally strong southerly flow will continue through the day today. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the waters surrounding Kauai, and both leeward and windward waters of the Big Island have also been added to the SCA with this morning's updates based on the latest ASCAT pass and hi-res model guidance. After a brief lull in southerly wind speeds tonight into Thursday, reintensification will cause winds to approach, or possibly reach, gale-force speeds for portions of the area as early as Thursday night or Friday, and lasting into the weekend.
A series of small, medium- to long-period west-northwest swells will bring small surf to north and west facing shores through the rest of the week. The first of these will peak today, resulting in a slight bump in surf along north and west-facing shores. This swell will then decline before the next west-northwest swell arrives on Friday. Additionally, a small, medium- period north swell is also expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday.
Choppy surf along east-facing shores will continue to trend downward, falling below seasonal levels today as winds veer southerly. With the shift of wind direction, surf along south-facing shores will increase, becoming rough and choppy. Later this week, another round of stronger southerly winds Friday into the weekend will cause south shore surf to build further, likely reaching advisory levels. A series of small, long-period south swells will also move through.
Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Haleakala Summit-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe- Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward- Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North- Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains- Windward Haleakala.
High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday afternoon for Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit.
Flood Watch from 6 PM HST this evening through Saturday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kohala-Kona.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters.
