Moderate to breezy trade winds will dominate the local weather pattern for the next week. Showers will generally favor the typical windward and mauka locations, with minor day-to-day fluctuations in moisture.
Early this morning, moderate to locally breeze trade winds continue to prevail across the region. Local satellite and radar imagery shows that scattered showers and areas of low clouds embedded within the trade wind flow are moving into windward and mauka sections of the islands, though most showers have remained light through the overnight hours.
With high pressure firmly established far northeast of the state, moderate to breezy easterly trade winds are expected to prevail for the next week or so. Troughing aloft will linger near the state for the next several days, but this is not anticipated to to have a noticeable impact on local weather, as it will remain weak. Instead, the dominant feature will be the strong surface high to our north. Trades may weaken slightly by early next week as the surface high weakens.
Occasional pockets of moisture embedded within the trade wind flow will result in minor fluctuations of windward and mauka shower activity into early next week. However, with climatologically normal precipitable water values of around 1.2 to 1.4 inches, shower activity is expected to be fairly typical of the time of year.
Vfr conditions will prevail across the state as breezy trades return to the islands. Windward showers are possible at times, but otherwise expecting quiet conditions.
AIRMET Tango is posted for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet all leeward portions of the islands, and should continue as breezy trades are forecast over the next several days.
Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail as high pressure remains anchored far northeast of the islands and builds westward through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island remains in effect through Saturday and will likely be needed through at least Monday. Trades may ease slightly Tuesday as high pressure shifts away to the northeast.
A large south-southwest swell will continue to gradually decline today while maintaining south shore surf above the High Surf Advisory threshold. Nearshore buoys continue to observe this swell in the 4 to 5 feet, 15 second range, while offshore buoy 51002 shows the swell height dropping below 4 feet. By this evening, surf is expected to fall to moderate levels and will continue to gradually fade through Sunday. Another long- period pulse of south- southwest swell arrives late Sunday and peaks early next week.
Along north-facing shores, a small medium-period north swell will build today and is forecast to peak early Friday, then ease over the weekend. A tiny west-northwest swell is possible early next week. Surf along east-facing shores will gradually build to around seasonal average by Friday, though some areas exposed to wrapping north swell could be slightly larger Thursday night and Friday. Near average east shore surf will prevail this weekend and early next week.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
