Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce breezy trades into the weekend. Mainly windward and mauka showers will ride in on the trades, favoring southern islands today and tonight. Another batch of trade showers arrives in the Aloha State about Sunday.
Very large surface high 1035 mb or so meanders over the far NE Pac the next 10 days, keeping trades breezy with slight slackening expected by the middle of next week. Sat and CAMS show one batch of trade wind showers associated with higher PW around 1.7" moving into BI and Maui Co, while another exits Kauai. Oahu should be on N fringes of this moisture convergence Fri. Still another progged near the islands in the ensemble means Sun AM. Ridging persists aloft so nothing too unusual expected with any of these. Otherwise, typical windward and mauka showers expected with PW near normal thru midweek. MJO and ensembles suggest we keep an eye on the tropics to our S and SE the next couple of weeks, could see an increase in low level moisture locally late next week as the ITCZ generally trends more active.
Moderate to breezy trades will persist across the Hawaiian Islands, bringing in pockets of enhanced low-level showers across predominately windward and mauka areas. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across most locations, with occasional localized MVFR conditions in association with shower activity.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet for windward and mauka areas due to clouds and showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days.
Strong high pressure centered north of the state continues to drive fresh to strong trade winds across all coastal waters. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all Hawaiian waters through Friday afternoon. High-resolution guidance suggests that SCA winds will hover near the advisory threshold across the coastal marine zones through Friday. Trades will remain fresh to strong through the weekend so the SCA may need to be extended.
A small to moderate medium-period south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swell will gradually decline through Friday. A small to moderate, long- period southwest swell (220 degrees) is expected to fill in Saturday into early next week, but due to its Tasman source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate- to long-period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells are expected to arrive late Friday and hold into early next week, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. Surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny with no significant swells forecast from the north or northwest.
Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the latter half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters-
