A breezy and stable trade wind flow will prevail through much of the week as surface high pressure holds north of the state. Pockets of moisture moving in the trades will focus rainfall over windward and mauka areas with showers briefly passing over leeward areas.
A ridge to the north will continue the moderate to locally strong trade winds across the region. Clouds and showers will be focused over the windward slopes, but the strong winds could carry some showers to leeward areas at times. Generally VFR conditions are expected with only brief MVFR possible under any localized moderate shower.
AIRMET Sierra has been cancelled for the Big Island as conditions have improved.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect due to the mechanical turbulence to the lee of the mountains below 8000 feet. Anticipate this AIRMET to remain posted beyond 24 hours.
Issued at 344 AM HST Tue Nov 3 2026 Dominant high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds through most of the week and into the weekend with slight day to day fluctuations. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Wednesday for the combination of winds for most waters and seas remaining near 10 feet today for areas exposed to a fading north-northwest swell. Continued strong trade winds will likely necessitate further extensions of the SCA. On Thursday, a broad area of low pressure with high potential to develop into a tropical cyclone according to National Hurricane Center forecasts will approach and pass south of the islands, potentially enhancing winds over southeast waters. Additionally, another moderate northwest swell is likely to push seas in exposed waters back above 10 ft through Friday. The threat of small craft winds and seas may extend into the weekend.
Surf along north- and west-facing shores will continue to decrease today as a moderate, north-northwest swell fades and shifts more northerly. A small, long period north-northwest swell arrives tonight and peaks late Wednesday, but this will not prevent north and west shore surf from dropping to small levels by Wednesday. Another moderate, long-period northwest swell arrives Wednesday night and will likely push north and west shore surf back to advisory levels Thursday into Friday. A medium-period swell fills in on Saturday, likely prolonging moderate to large surf action into the weekend.
The current small, medium-period south swell will continue to fade today. South shore surf will be small to tiny through much of the week with little southerly background energy reaching the islands. East-facing shores will see continued moderate trade wind swell as strong northeast winds remain. Surf along east-facing shores will stay big and choppy through much of the week with the trades.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
