The high pressure ridge north of the islands will weaken through Monday as a strong cut off low pressure system deepens near the dateline. Wind directions will veer more southeasterly on Monday, then strengthening southerly winds from Tuesday onward. This next system is extremely strong for the Hawaii region and dangerous impacts are likely to develop statewide through much of next week. A combination of flooding, strong and gusty southerly winds, thunderstorms, and Big Island summit level snow and ice will threaten Hawaii from Tuesday through next weekend. Island by island impacts will be driven by both large scale troughs and smaller scale thunderstorm bands over the entire duration of this severe weather event.
Issued at 845 PM HST Sat Mar 7 2026
East southeast flow across Hawaii is expected to slightly weaken tomorrow. Scattered clouds will move in and bringing SHRA over southeast areas. MVFR conds possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR conds prevail.
AIRMET Sierra for mtn obsc is in effect for windward locations of Kauai, Oahu, Maui and The Big Island.
AIRMET Tango in effect for mod turb blw 080 downwind slopes (south across northwest facing). Expect this AIRMET to drop off in the morning. Directional LLWS possible at the PHOG/OGG runway Sunday afternoon.
Issued at 429 PM HST Sat Mar 7 2026
Strong high pressure far northeast of the state will maintain fresh to strong trade winds through the rest of the weekend, with the strongest winds over the central and eastern coastal waters (with the exception of Maalaea Bay). A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for these areas through 6 pm Sunday, though this may need to be extended for the typically windy channels and waters of Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday night. A front approaching from the west will ease the trades and shift them southeasterly on Monday, with the winds then becoming southerly and increasing to fresh to strong levels Tuesday through the rest of the week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain elevated and choppy through the rest of the weekend, trend downward on Monday, then lower below normal levels Tuesday through late next week.
A series of west-northwest swells will keep some small surf in place along north and west facing shores during the next 7 days, but surf will remain well below advisory levels. A small to moderate sized north swell is possible around Thursday and Friday of next week.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small, with the exception of areas exposed to trade wind swell wrap. Rough and choppy conditions will develop Tuesday and continue through late week as southerly winds increase in advance of a front. A series of small long period south swells will also move through Monday through late week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
