Moderate to breezy trade winds will prevail through the week as high pressure holds far north of the islands. Stable conditions will focus limited showers over windward and mauka areas through at least the middle of next week.
A broad 1031 mb surface high remains centered roughly 1300 miles north of Kauai while a ridge aloft holds over the state. As a result, a moderate to breezy and stable trade wind flow persists across the island chain. A shallow band of moisture will graze Oahu this afternoon and produce continued increased shower activity on windward Kauai this afternoon and tonight. Based on recent trends, the wetter portions of windward Kauai will experience rainfall of mainly a half of an inch or less tonight. A similar batch of moisture will impact windward Big Island later tonight and early Saturday. Elsewhere, expect continued modest windward rainfall tonight, followed by slightly drier conditions on Saturday.
A slight increase in the breezy trade winds is expected by Sunday or Monday as the high to the north builds to around 1034 mb. Stable conditions will persist, limiting shower activity to windward and mauka areas through the middle of next week.
Remnant moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas may reach the state on continued breezy trades and cause an increase in shower activity late Thursday or next Friday.
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. Low cigs and light showers should focus mainly over windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to leeward areas, leading to localized MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 090 downwind of island terrain due to breezy trade winds, although this threat may dwindle over the course of the forecast period as trades are expected to weaken this weekend.
A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep trade winds blowing across the region into much of next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island remains has been extended into Monday. Minor fluctuations in wind speeds may allow for brief periods of additional zones to fall into the SCA coverage area over the next several days.
A small, long period south swell hold through tonight keeping surf heights just below south shore summertime average surf heights. Another overlapping moderate, long period south- southwest swell will fill in Saturday, boosting surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday and Monday. This swell will slowly fade from Tuesday through the middle of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to locally strong trades hold. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny into next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
