Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

928 am hst Thu aug 13 2026

Synopsis

Increased trade winds, combined with dry conditions, will elevate the fire weather threat Friday. Meanwhile, occasional showers will favor windward and mauka areas through Friday. For the weekend, we are continuing to monitor Tropical Storm Lala as it moves west-northwest towards the main Hawaiian Islands. Residents and visitors should prepare now for potential rain, wind, and surf impacts this weekend. Please monitor www.hurricanes.gov for the latest information.

Aviation

Breezy trade winds will gradually strengthen through Friday. Scattered showers will focus over mostly windward and mountain areas, especially during the evening/overnight hours. Some showers will spill over to leeward areas.

AIRMET Sierra has been issued for windward and mauka areas for Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island as a dense, low-level cloud deck with embedded showers moves in from the east. Windward portions of Kauai may be added to the AIRMET later if this cloud deck remains intact.

AIRMET Tango will likely be needed this afternoon for moderate turbulence immediately south and west of mountains due to strengthening low-level winds.

Aviation interests should also monitor for updates on Tropical Storm Lala and its potential impacts to the islands.

Marine

Breezy trades take hold today and strengthen as governing high pressure sags southward toward the islands and Tropical Storm Lala approaches from the east. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect and is still scheduled to expand in coverage tonight as winds undergo a modest increase in strength.

NE wind associated with Tropical Storm Lala, presently about 600nm SE of Hilo, will undergo considerable strengthening Friday through Saturday with strong winds potentially expanding to the remainder of the state late Saturday into Sunday. The Hurricane Watch for the Big Island and surrounding waters remains in effect. Dangerous conditions including torrential rainfall, a few thunderstorms, and high surf should be expected. Lala will track WNW through the weekend, clearing the western islands by Monday.

The High Surf Advisory remains in effect for S and W shores as long period S swell peaks today and remains elevated through tonight. Surf associated with this swell then begins to diminish as the period shortens. Another long period S swell arrives late Sunday into Monday bringing another boost to surf.

For E shores, surf initially trends slowly upward in association with gradually strengthening trades. Additional swells generated by TS Lala will arrive on Friday followed by the main energy arriving with the system itself this weekend. Surf along E facing shores is expected to exceed the High Surf Warning threshold during this time. Based on the latest forecast track and intensity from the National Hurricane Center, dangerous surf will develop around Maui and the Big Island on Saturday and around Oahu and Kauai Saturday night into Sunday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island South- Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro- Kahoolawe-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai West-Niihau-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast.

Hurricane Watch for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.

Hurricane Watch for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters- Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Friday for Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

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