High pressure to the north will maintain a breezy to locally windy trade wind pattern through the week. Winds will be strongest in higher terrain areas, passes, and areas immediately south through west of mountains across all islands. Showers carried in on the trade wind flow will be focused over windward and mauka areas. An uptick in shower activity is possible this coming weekend.
Issued at 905 AM HST Mon Feb 16 2026
A 1042 mb high remains far north of the islands this morning with a tight pressure gradient over the islands, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with this high sinking southward and weakening today, however this does little to alter the resultant pressure gradient over the region, thus expecting the winds to hold fairly steady today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of Oahu to the Big Island, with the strongest winds in the typical locations of higher terrain areas, passes, and areas immediately south through west of mountains.
A cold front about 850 miles to the northwest of Kauai will continue to move to the east today, and by tomorrow, may help to tighten the pressure gradient over the islands between the high and the front. This could cause an uptick in winds tomorrow which could result in an expansion and extension of the Wind Advisory. Currently several of the high resolution models, include the FV3 and ARW, are depicting winds stronger than observations, which raises concerns about the peak of the winds that are forecast in those models. However most models are indicating winds around advisory levels through much of the week.
Radar shows isolated showers immediately upstream of the islands, with satellite showing some more showery bands further upstream. These bands will be carried in on the trades, and keep passing showers focused over windward and mauka areas. However the stronger trade winds will carry some of these showers to the leeward areas of the smaller islands. Expect similar shower activity to continue through much of the week.
During the second half of the week, the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with moisture being drawn northward to the east of the islands. This moisture then is expected to get carried in on the trade winds, which would increase shower activity for the upcoming weekend.
Issued at 905 AM HST Mon Feb 16 2026
Breezy easterly trade winds will persist during the next couple of days. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, bringing some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys at times. VFR conditions should generally prevail in leeward locales.
AIRMET Sierra remains in place for mountain obscuration over windward sections of Kauai and the Big Island. Conditions may improve later this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will likely persist through at least Tuesday.
Kilauea Episode 42 has ended. The volcanic ash SIGMET covering the ash plume has been cancelled.
Issued at 335 AM HST Mon Feb 16 2026
A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to drift farther south through Wednesday. This closer proximity to the islands will keep strong and gusty trade winds in the regional forecast through at least Wednesday. A slight decrease in trade wind speeds may develop from Thursday into Friday as the high weakens briefly.
Surf heights along east facing shorelines will remain solidly within the High Surf Advisory (HSA) range through Wednesday. The HSA was extended until Tuesday evening for now, and may need to be extended into Wednesday at a later date.
Small surf heights remain in the forecast for north, west and south facing shores lasting into Saturday, due to an absence of significant swell energy in the medium range forecast.
In the extended range forecast, the forerunners of the next moderate to large, long period north (010-020 degree) swell appears to arrive by late Sunday night, building swiftly to advisory levels through next week Monday, and then slowly declining into the middle of next week.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kauai East- Kauai South-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kahoolawe- Kohala-Koolau Leeward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South- Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for all Hawaiian Coastal Waters.
