Mostly dry and stable with a few showers over windward Big Island tonight and Monday. Incoming moisture and an upper low track near or over the area Tuesday to Thursday bringing higher chances of rain. Dry and stable weather returns Friday into next weekend.
Vfr conditions will prevail with limited showers through tonight. Trade winds increase in strength over the next few days, decreasing the sea breeze coverage area. A passing strong low level trough will drift from east to west across the island chain, from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, increasing MVFR low level cloud cover and shower trends.
No AIRMET's are currently in effect. However, cloud buildup during the afternoon hours could warrant AIRMET Sierra being issued for mountain obscurations.
A weak high pressure ridge will remain nearly stationary north of the waters maintaining gentle to locally fresh trade winds through Tuesday night. High pressure to the far north northeast will strengthen by midweek as easterly trade winds gradually strengthen to moderate to locally strong levels. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may need to be issued for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island on Wednesday through the end of the week. A low level trough moving in from the east Tuesday through Wednesday will bring an increase in shower activity.
A series of small to moderate, medium to long period south swells will keep surf along south-facing shores near seasonal average through the forecast period. Another boost in south swell is expected Wednesday night into Thursday below High Surf Advisory levels. Surf along east-facing shores will remain small due to the lack of trade winds energy upstream of the islands through tonight. Easterly wind wave looks to increase Tuesday into the end of the week, reaching moderate levels as trade winds increase. Surf along north- facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period with a potential bump of tiny background energy midweek into Thursday.
None.
