Light to moderate trade winds will produce a hybrid trade wind and sea breeze wind flow each day lasting into early next week. Brief passing showers will drift into the islands on the easterly trade winds, favoring windward mountain areas during the overnight to early morning hours. A more significant change to our weather pattern continues to evolve for early next week beginning sometime Monday night or Tuesday. Deeply unstable tropical moisture moving across the state will bring the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms affecting all islands.
An increase of low clouds and showers are producing brief MVFR conditions between Oahu and Maui County this evening. Conditions should generally improve later tonight as some drier air moves in. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade wind weather is expected for Friday with mostly VFR conditions. An increase of showers around PHTO could produce MVFR conditions Friday afternoon.
Lastly, a strong jet developing tonight with the jet streak located just north of the state could produce light to moderate turbulence just north of the state between FL240 to FL320. Severe turbulence will be possible further north of the state especially Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. See SIGMET ROMEO for more information.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for north through east sections of Maui County and Oahu.
Issued at 349 PM HST Thu Oct 22 2026 Easterly trade winds will be at gentle to moderate strength through Friday as surface low pressure far north of Hawaii and a nearby surface trough weaken the local pressure gradient. Trades are expected to hold at current strength and shift out of the northeast this weekend as high pressure far northwest of Hawaii pushes the low eastward. The weaker trade winds should persist Monday, but uncertainty increases on Tuesday, hinging on the potential development of a low southwest of the islands.
A small, medium-period northwest swell will arrive overnight and provide a small boost to surf along north-facing shores on Friday. A moderate, medium-period north-northwest swell will build late Saturday and peak around seasonal average on Sunday. As this swell declines on Monday, a long-period west-northwest swell will arrive, maintaining small to moderate surf into the middle of next week.
Small background level surf will prevail along south-facing shores through Friday. A small to moderate south-southwest swell is expected to boost surf to around seasonal average this weekend into early next week.
Along east-facing shores, trade-wind swell will continue to decrease through Friday, though a small, medium-period northeast swell may maintain small surf through Saturday. Aside from wrapping north-northwest swell in exposed areas, east shore surf should remain below seasonal average much of next week.
None.
