Locally breezy trade winds will weaken to moderate levels today and Wednesday, then strengthen Thursday into the weekend. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with showers more common today and Wednesday compared to later in the week or this coming weekend.
Radar and satellite show showers and clouds increasing as of 3 AM HST as an area of increasing moisture moves into the state. Winds continue to decrease in speed, and this trend is expected to continue through Wednesday.
A large surface high to the north will help keep trade winds blowing for the coming week, but wind speeds will decrease today through Wednesday before increasing again Thursday and remaining moderate into the weekend. Showers will increase today (as we are already seeing this morning), tonight, and Wednesday before drier air moves in and reduces showers from Thursday onward. As is typical for trade winds, the majority of showers will be windward and mauka.
Models have been consistently showing an increase in potential tropical systems in the central and eastern Pacific in the next couple of weeks, but so far no storms appear headed toward the state. However, with El Nino picking up steam and now forecast to reach record or near-record strength, now would be a great time to make sure you are prepared in case that changes.
Trades will weaken during the day today, with intermittent showers expected to impact primarily windward sites through the forecast period. Downstream radar and satellite imagery suggest that a band of moisture may disproportionately impact windward Kauai and Oahu with showers today, with some spillover into leeward sites possible. Outside of those two areas, however, VFR is broadly anticipated.
No AIRMETS are currently in effect, however this may change should shower activity become widespread enough to promote mountain obscuration.
Trade winds will gradually ease today as the high pressure north of the islands lifts northeast and weakens. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled as winds have dropped below criteria. These lighter trades should continue through Wednesday night, then may increase a bit Thursday and Friday as high pressure northeast of the islands drops a bit further south and tightens up the local pressure gradient.
The current small, long-period southwest swell will gradually decline through the middle of the week. A series of overlapping small south and southwest swell should produce some rideable surf through next weekend, with perhaps a more sizable south swell moving in early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will steadily decline through Wednesday. Surf will then hold steady at slightly below seasonal averages along east facing shores through the weekend.
A series of small, long to medium period west to west-northwest swells generated by former Super Typhoon Bavi will be possible throughout the rest of the week. Otherwise, no significant north or northwest swells are expected, so surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny.
Peak monthly high tides combined with water levels that are running slightly higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is possible around the daily peak tide, which will be during the afternoon hours. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through 6 PM this evening.
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