Hurricane Nolo continues to slowly move to the north towards the Big Island, and is expected to make a turn to the west tonight. Moisture on the north side of Nolo will interact with the terrain of the Big Island and Maui, and could lead to significant flash flooding, particularly on the windward and southeast portions of the Big Island. Localized strong and gust winds are possible statewide, with the highest winds expected on the Big Island due to the proximity to Nolo.
High-level cloudiness with light showers prevailed across the Big Island this afternoon as Hurricane Nolo continues to move slowly north-northeast. The rest of the islands remained relatively quiet, aside from breeze conditions throughout the day.
Latest radar imagery shows rainbands associated with Nolo inching closer to the Big Island. These bands are expected to move through tonight into Saturday morning, producing periods of heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.
The latest National Hurricane Center track still indicates Nolo will make its closest approach late tonight before turning westward. Although forecast precipitation amounts for the state have been adjusted slightly downward, rainfall totals remain high enough to cause life-threatreninh flooding,especially across the Big Island. Other impacts are summarized in the marine and aviation sections.
Impacts from Nolo will worsen through tomorrow morning and persist through Saturday night. A slow improvement in weather conditions is expected on Sunday as Nolo moves away from the area.
By the middle of next week, troughing will draw Nolo north or northeastward to the west of Kauai. Toward the end of next week, light south-to-southeast wind flow is expected to prevail as the pressure gradient over the state weakens substantially.
Gusty trade winds will continue across most of the islands into the weekend, with gusts peaking between 25 to 35 knots. Gusts up to 40 knots are possible at the windiest sites. For the western islands, occasional trade showers are likely to continue across windward and mauka areas, while heavier rain remains concentrated from Molokai through the Big Island as Hurricane Nolo passes south of the state. The highest potential for moderate to heavy rain remains across the Big Island, with reductions in ceilings and visibilities likely as shower activity becomes more frequent. Observations from Hilo this afternoon already show prolonged and widespread IFR conditions over eastern Big Island, and periods of IFR to LIFR conditions remain possible through Saturday. Thunderstorm chances remain low.
AIRMET Sierra has been issued for IFR conditions across eastern Big Island, and will likely remain in effect through tonight. Additionally, AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for eastern Maui, and this will likely be needed through the night as well.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of island terrain due to breezy trade winds. Expect this to continue through the forecast period. It is possible that an AIRMET for sustained 30 kt winds will be needed for the Big Island by Saturday as Nolo passes to the south.
TC SIGMET Oscar series covers Hurricane Nolo, and interests should continue to monitor for updates to this SIGMET.
Hurricane Warnings around the Big Island and Tropical Storm Warnings around Maui County remain in effect as Hurricane Nolo inches northward. A Gale Watch is in effect for the remaining waters through Sunday. Nolo is still forecast to turn west well before reaching the Big Island or adjacent nearshore waters, but strong winds and high seas can nonetheless be expected well away from the storm itself.
South to southeast fresh swell emanating from Nolo will spread west across the southern nearshore waters as the system tracks west through early next week. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) for E and SE facing shores of the Big Island, Maui, and Molokai remains in effect and has been extended through Sunday. In addition, an HSA is now in effect for Kauai, Oahu, and Niihau beginning tonight due to strengthening trades. A small, long period NW swell fills in this weekend in maintenance of elevated surf along exposed shorelines into early next week.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM HST Sunday for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Leeward- Koolau Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast- Waianae Mountains.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai East-Kauai South-Koolau Windward-Olomana.
Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North- Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.
Tropical Storm Watch for Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-Kipahulu-Maui Windward West- Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.
Hurricane Watch for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.
Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island East-Big Island Interior- Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.
Tropical Storm Watch for Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
Hurricane Watch for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters- Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
Tropical Storm Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
