A cold front will March eastward down the island chain from Monday afternoon through Tuesday, before stalling out and diminishing near the Big Island late Tuesday. Southwesterly winds will gradually strengthen tonight through Monday with breezy to locally strong southwest winds expected by Monday afternoon. Northwesterly winds with cool and dry conditions will follow behind the frontal passage. A stronger weather disturbance could impact the state late Friday into next weekend with heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Issued at 355 PM HST Sun Feb 1 2026
Starting tonight, a cold front approaching the state from the northwest will cause southwesterly winds to gradually increase into Monday with breezy to strong (15 to 25 mph) southwesterly winds expected across the state by Monday afternoon. Wind gusts of 40 mph will be possible especially areas downwind of the mountain ranges. One area that could see stronger wind gusts and meet the Wind Advisory criteria will be over windward Oahu. Latest High Res models have trended stronger with the 850mb winds and is now showing anywhere from 30-40 knots at 850mb. With an inversion expected a little above the ridge tops, this should provide a favorable setup for gusty downslope winds with wind gusts of 50 mph possible Monday afternoon through the evening. Elsewhere across the state, we could see wind gusts approach the Wind Advisory threshold, but at this time the best chance seems to be over typical windward areas of Oahu.
As far as rainfall, prefrontal showers will continue to increase tonight into Monday, which should bring some passing showers focused over our typical leeward areas. The main band of moisture will be along the frontal boundary and will be short-lived with a brief period of moderate rain possible. The threat for heavy rain will be minimal due to stable conditions aloft. The front should be moving through Kauai late Monday afternoon into the evening, over Oahu on Monday night, and over Maui County Tuesday morning. The front should then dissipate around the Big Island Tuesday afternoon and evening. Behind the front, we should see cool and dry conditions with moderate northwesterly winds. Dewpoints will get down into the 50s behind the front, so Tuesday and Tuesday night should feel quite cool.
Over on the summits of Haleakala and the Big Island, upper level winds will increase Monday night and will likely reach Wind Advisory thresholds for the summits of Big Island and Haleakala. No wintry precipitation is expected with the frontal boundary due to the shallow nature of the front.
After the frontal passage, we should see fair weather conditions persist for a few days due to a surface ridge of high pressure over the state. Light winds with clear mornings and partly cloudy afternoons are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Long range models are in pretty good agreement with an upper level trough approaching the state next weekend. At the surface, we should see a cold front approach the state late Friday into Saturday. While details still remain uncertain at this point, both the operational GFS and ECMWF and its AI models show some type of upper level cut off low developing over the state or southwest of the state. Depending on where this low develops, we could see a complex weather pattern next weekend with the threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Issued at 355 PM HST Sun Feb 1 2026
Mostly VFR with isolated MVFR in low clouds and showers through early evening, then VFR overnight. Southwest low-level flow has developed (altered locally by terrain, of course). This flow will strengthen through the night and become even stronger Monday afternoon. Cloud coverage and shower trends will increase Monday from west to east as a cold front approaches the islands. The cold front is forecast to reach PHLI around 6 PM HST, bringing gusty NW winds and showers.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.
Issued at 355 PM HST Sun Feb 1 2026
A surface ridge will continue to drift southward over the islands today, leading to gentle to moderate south to southwest winds. Southwest winds will become fresh to strong late tonight and Monday as a front approaches. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for most waters west of the Big Island and will be in effect from midnight HST tonight through Monday night. The front will move down the island chain Monday night and Tuesday, bringing gusty winds and heavy showers. Northwest winds behind the front will diminish and shift out of the east on Wednesday, followed by a return to southerly winds Thursday. Another front will likely reach the state late Friday or Saturday.
The current west-northwest swell will continue to decline through Monday, with another round of extra-large surf due Tuesday. Surf along north and west facing shores will diminish to small heights by Monday morning, followed by an increase during the afternoon as forerunners of the next northwest swell arrive. The next northwest swell (310 to 325 degrees) will build rapidly Monday night and peak Tuesday and Wednesday as overlapping pulses pass through Hawaiian waters. Surf along most north and west facing shores will easily exceed High Surf Warning levels, with combined seas exceeding the 10 foot SCA threshold in many areas. The swell will decline Thursday and Friday, with surf falling below High Surf Advisory levels Thursday night. Another large swell is possible late Friday and Saturday.
Surf along east and south facing shores will remain small through much of the week, aside from a brief boost along south facing shores with the increase in southwest winds as the front approaches on Monday. An increase is possible along east shores next weekend.
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through midday Monday, as peak monthly tides coincide with higher than predicted ocean levels. Expect minor flooding of low-lying coastal infrastructure as well as some some beach erosion during the peak high tide between midnight and sunrise Monday.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters- Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
