Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

954 am hst Thu apr 16 2026

Synopsis

A low pressure system lingers far to the north of Hawaii this morning, supporting continued light and variable winds with chances for light to moderate showers today. A passing high pressure system will bring a brief return to easterly trade winds with subtle drying trends from tonight into Saturday. A series of low pressure systems passing just north of the state will produce light to moderate southeasterly winds from Sunday into the middle of next week along with enhanced shower trends over the western islands on Monday and Tuesday.

Aviation

Issued at 939 AM HST Thu Apr 16 2026

A light background easterly trade wind flow should take place today. Land and sea breezes are expected for terrain sheltered areas due to the light winds. It is also possible for afternoon showers to occur over island interiors, providing isolated MVFR conditions for the afternoon hours, before dissipating by the evening. Windward and mountain areas could also see brief and isolated MVFR conditions from passing showers. VFR will prevail elsewhere.

No AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

Issued at 939 AM HST Thu Apr 16 2026

Trough to the NW maintains gentle to moderate easterly trades through today. The strongest breezes will occur through the typical windy channels surrounding Maui and the Big Island. Building high pressure then supports moderate to locally fresh easterly trades across the waters Friday into Saturday. Winds may briefly reach the Small Craft Advisory threshold on Saturday. Low pressure to our NW on Sunday will cause trades to weaken slightly and veer to ESE. Gentle to moderate ESE winds are expected Sunday into early next week.

A small, short-period, NNW swell fades this afternoon into tonight. Small background energy from the W this weekend into next week from Typhoon Sinlaku, but confidence remains low. A much larger NW to WNW swell is possible towards the end of next week as Typhoon Sinlaku transitions to extratropical early next week.

A small to moderate, medium-period, SSE swell boosts surf along S shores through Friday then lowers over the weekend. Surf along E shores remains below the seasonal average as trades remain light. However, increasing trades by week's end should brings a slight bump to surf. Low pressure advancing S along the W coast of the US next week then sends a small, medium period NE swell toward the islands by midweek.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

None.

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