Trade wind weather will continue through the weekend with brief passing showers favoring windward and mountain areas of all islands. Winds begin to shift out of the south from Sunday night into Monday as a strong cutoff low pressure system approaches from the northwest. Strong southerly winds will draw deep tropical moisture northward increasing the threat for widespread heavy rainfall and severe weather through much of next week.
Issued at 900 AM HST Fri Mar 6 2026
Trades have shifted out of the southeast and will continue out of that direction while weakening slightly today. This will allow for more of a land-sea breeze pattern through the first half of the period for most sites, before wind speeds pick up out of the east- southeast later today into the early evening. VFR will prevail today, with brief periods of MVFR possible along windward slopes due to low clouds and intermittent light showers.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration has been cancelled for Kauai, but remains in effect for Oahu for a few more hours. AIRMETs are not expected for the remainder of the day.
Issued at 900 AM HST Fri Mar 6 2026
Fresh to strong east to southeast winds associated with a surface ridge extending southwest into the region will remain in place through the weekend. Expect the strongest winds and roughest conditions within the channels, along the Hamakua Coast of the Big Island, windward waters, and south of the Big Island. The surface ridge will begin to weaken early next week as broad low pressure develops nearby to the west. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect of the waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Saturday and potentially may need to be extended as this pattern will cause winds to veer out of the south to south- southeast, potentially remaining in the fresh to strong range next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain near seasonal average into early next week due to a large upstream fetch of fresh to strong breezes extending across the northeast Pacific. A downward trend is expected next week as this pattern weakens and local winds veer southerly.
Surf along north- and west-facing shores will remain relatively small through the period, with only a few west-northwest pulses expected over the weekend. A gradual increase is expected through the weekend, with Sunday potentially the largest day, reaching around head-high levels. A long-period westerly swell associated with a slow-moving storm-force low tracking eastward toward the Date Line from the far northwest Pacific is expected early next week. However, the westerly winds associated with this system near the islands are forecast to weaken by the weekend, which will limit the amount of swell generated toward the state. Additionally, Kauai will block some of this energy from reaching other coasts across the island chain.
Surf along south-facing shores exposed to southeast trade-wind seas will gradually increase through the weekend. Conditions could become rough early next week as winds veer southerly and strengthen. A long-period south-southwest swell associated with a recent system passing through our swell window near New Zealand is expected to arrive Tuesday and persist through midweek.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
