Light winds turn southerly on Wednesday in response to low pressure developing north of the state. This will favor sea breezes and a few interior showers during the afternoon. Deep southerly winds will bring potential for flooding rainfall Wednesday night through at least Thursday.
Light southerly winds expected through the forecast period due to a nearby surface trough. Increasing SHRA and a few isol TSTMs are possible through Thursday as the surface trough gets closer. IFR/MVFR conds likely within heavier SHRA or TSTMs. VFR prevails elsewhere.
No AIRMETs are in effect.
Issued at 314 PM HST Tue Oct 6 2026 Winds will veer to the east southeast this afternoon and tonight as a low pressure system and an associated cold front develops north of the state and approaches from the northwest. A trough extending from this low is forecast to move into the northwest offshore waters by Wednesday afternoon. The low will stall north of the islands and draw moisture out of the tropics and over the area through the second half of the week, so expect an increase in showers with moderate south to southeast winds. Thunderstorms will be possible over the waters around Kauai and Oahu, mainly Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The trough could potentially linger into the weekend as it dissipates.
Long period south swell energy will continue filling in today, keeping surf elevated but just below advisory levels this afternoon. By Wednesday, this swell will begin to fade, but surf heights will change little this week, as a mix of new, small south swells will keep surf elevated near or just above seasonal norms. Another long period swell then looks to fill in this weekend, bumping surf back up to just below advisory levels.
A long-period northwest swell will continue building today, pushing surf for north-facing shores up tonight to near moderate levels on Wednesday. Small to moderate surf is then forecast through the rest of the week even as swell energy becomes shorter period, since it will be reinforced by a low to the north- northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. A larger moderate swell could arrive early next week, bringing north shore surf to just below advisory thresholds. Surf along east facing shores will remain small as local winds remain fairly weak.
A small, long-period west swell originating from Typhoon Choi- wan is forecast to reach the islands Thursday into the weekend, which may produce moderate surf for west-facing shores.
None.
