Strong and gusty trade winds will prevail today as Hurricane Nolo moves toward the west well south of the islands. Deepening high pressure north of the state will produce drier and more stable conditions,leading to continued strong wind gusts over and downwind of terrain, especially in west Maui and leeward Kohala on Big Island. The threat of flooding rainfall has ended across Big Island and Maui County, with drier conditions leading to limited rainfall along windward slopes and dry conditions leeward. Trade winds will lower and shift out of the east- southeast Monday through Wednesday, and chances of rainfall will increase on Kauai and Oahu as moisture trailing Nolo moves over the western end of the island chain.
Very breeze conditions have prevailed statewide overnight,with sustained winds over 30 mph observed across the islands. Hurricane Nolo continues to move away from the region, the pressure gradient is maintaining these very breeze conditions across the state. Winds are expected to subside rapidly from this morning into this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Nolo is forecast to continue moving westward over the next 48 hours and turn more towards the northwest as a high pressure weakens.
A High pressure system will maintain control of the weather early this week, bringing relatively quiet conditions. However,as Nolo move northwest, associated moisture could bring some precipitation mainly across Kauai, from late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rainfall accumulations are expected to be less than an inch over a 24-hour period.
By the end of the week, light southeast winds are expected with dry weather conditions anticipated across the state as computer models doesn't show any other major weather event approaching the region.
Strong and gusty winds continue across the state early this morning as Hurricane Nolo moves westward away from the area. These strong trades will remain in place today. As showers continue across the Big Island, MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities will persist through the rest of the morning. Improving conditions are expected later today. Elsewhere, brief MVFR conditions are possible in any showers, mainly across windward and mountain areas.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for Oahu, Molokai, and Maui. Additionally, AIRMET Sierra also covers IFR conditions possible across eastern portions of the Big Island this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of island terrain due to the strong winds, with isolated severe turbulence also possible. This AIRMET will be needed for the next several days. AIRMET Tango also remains in effect for sustained surface winds of 30 kt or greater across Maui County and the Big Island due to the strong trades.
Tropical SIGMET Oscar covers Hurricane Nolo.
Hurricane Nolo is now located around 250 nm southwest of the Big Island this morning. Despite its increasing distance from the islands, the pressure gradient between Nolo to the south and high pressure to the northeast will continue to drive strong to gale- force trade winds and a Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the Hawaiian coastal waters today. Winds will gradually diminish through the week, and the Gale Warning will likely be replaced with a Small Craft Advisory tonight for most waters, with gales still possible through the typically windier channels.
Southeast swell generated by Hurricane Nolo is beginning to decline for the Big Island, but continues to produce advisory level surf for east and southeast facing shores. This swell combined with gale force trade winds is also producing advisory level surf along east facing shores of Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai that will begin to diminish for the eastern islands today but will likely take through tonight to fall below advisory criteria for Oahu and Kauai. The High Surf Advisory for those two islands has been extended accordingly. East shore surf will fade through early this week as Nolo continues westward and then northwestward and gains some distance from the islands. As it progresses on this track, surf along south and west facing shores will increase today and likely hold just shy of advisory criteria through Monday. A moderate, long period south- southwest swell will gradually fade through Tuesday.
A small, long-period northwest swell will continue to bring a small bump to north facing shores into early next week. A reinforcing pulse arriving today may lead to a peak in surf tonight before gradually fading. A series of small, medium-period east swells are expected from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo in the East Pacific later this week.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Interior-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Haleakala Summit-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu- Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North- Molokai West-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island East-Big Island North-Kauai East-Kauai South-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward- Olomana-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island North-Big Island South-Kohala-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST early this morning for Big Island South-Big Island Southeast.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Southeast.
Gale Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel- Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
