Trades will weaken slightly this evening before strengthening again Sunday afternoon. After that, we should see moderate breezy trades well into next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, rarely reaching leeward sections as moisture is relatively low for the next week.
Satellite and radar show scattered showers over windward and mauka areas, especially on Maui, this afternoon. These showers are forecast to continue overnight. Winds were still reaching wind advisory criteria as of 3 PM HST, but are expected to weaken to below criteria this evening. Therefore, the wind advisory will be allowed to expire on schedule at 6 PM HST.
Models remain consistent in showing an extended period of trades lasting for at least 7 days. Ridging aloft to our north will enhance surface ridging to our northeast through the middle of next week. After that, there may be a replacement of the ridge aloft after a brief period of weak troughing. But the surface ridge, and therefore the trade winds, are forecast to remain strong. Expect a continuation of breezy to occasionally strong trade winds, along with isolated to scattered showers, mainly windward and mauka, through Friday. PW values will hover around an inch over the next week.
Breezy to locally windy trades will continue through Sunday and usher clouds and isolated to scattered showers into windward and mountain areas. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible as showers pass through. Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain, and is expected to continue into at least Sunday.
Strong high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain strong trade winds through the rest of the weekend. The high will begin a weakening trend tonight, then shift northeast of the state during the first half of the week. Strong trade winds will gradually trend down to moderate to locally strong speeds by Tuesday, then hold through the end of next week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Sunday afternoon for all Hawaiian waters. It will likely need to be extended further for locally windier waters through the first half of the week.
Choppy and rough surf can be expected along east-facing shores through the rest of the weekend. Based on nearshore buoy observations from today, surf along east-facing shores is expected to remain just below advisory thresholds through the weekend. It will then trend down as trade wind speeds gradually ease locally and upstream.
A small, moderate period north-northwest swell will peak tonight, then gradually decline Sunday into Monday. This will provide a small boost in surf heights along north and west facing shores. A slightly larger northwest swell will fill in Tuesday and peak Wednesday, which could bring near to slightly above average summertime surf for north and west facing shores.
A small, long period south swell will peak this evening, resulting in surf at near or slightly above average. This swell will begin to fade on Sunday. Another similar south swell will slowly fill in Tuesday, peak Wednesday, then slowly fade during the second half of next week.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island North- Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kohala-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-South Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
