Moderate to breezy trade winds will prevail through the week as high pressure holds far north of the islands. Stable conditions will focus limited showers over windward and mauka areas.
A broad 1031 mb surface high is centered roughly 1300 miles north of Kauai while a ridge aloft remains over the state. As a result, a moderate to breezy and stable trade wind flow persists across the island chain. Shallow batches of moisture are currently affecting windward Kauai and Big Island, where a quarter to a half inch of rainfall has been observed during the past six hours. Less than a quarter of an inch of rain was measured on windward Maui County and Oahu during this time, and all leeward areas have been dry. Expect continued modest windward rainfall through tonight, followed by slightly drier conditions on Saturday.
A slight increase in the breezy trade winds is expected by Sunday as the high to the north builds to around 1034 mb. Stable conditions will persist, limiting shower activity to windward and mauka areas. A somewhat drier air mass will push leeward dew points into the low to mid 60s as early as Saturday afternoon, leading to daytime minimum relative humidity around 45 per cent through at least early the middle of next week.
Remnant moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas may reach the state on continued breezy trades and cause an increase in shower activity late Thursday or next Friday.
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. Low cigs and light showers should focus mainly over windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to leeward areas, leading to localized MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for windward portions of Kauai due to low clouds and showers. Conditions are expected to improve later this morning, as they already have for the rest of the islands, where the previous AIRMET Sierra was in effect.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence below 090 downwind of island terrain due to trade winds as well, although this threat may dwindle over the course of the forecast period as trades are expected to weaken this weekend.
Issued at 330 AM HST Fri Jul 3 2026
A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep trade winds blowing across the region into much of next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island remains in effect into the weekend. SCA winds will remain close to advisory thresholds into next week with minor fluctuations in strength of the trade winds.
A small, long period south swell moving through the Hawaii region will hold through Saturday, keeping surf heights just below south shore summertime average surf heights into the weekend. Another overlapping moderate, long period south-southwest swell will fill in Saturday afternoon and evening, boosting surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday and Monday. This swell will slowly fade from Tuesday through the middle of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to locally strong trades hold. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny into next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
