Breezy trades will focus low clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas through mid-next week. A plume of moisture moving south of the islands will increase rain chances across the eastern end of the state through Monday, then drier conditions are expected through midweek. Brewing western East Pacific disturbances within the tropics will need to be monitored for more organized development the next several days.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through the weekend. MVFR ceilings will be focused over typical windward slopes, but will be more extensive over windward Big Island today as an area of deeper moisture moves in on the trades. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward Big Island and will likely be expanded tonight or Sunday to cover windward Big Island, Maui, and Molokai as the above mentioned moisture spreads westward. VFR conditions will prevail over most leeward areas, though portions of leeward Big Island could experience extensive MVFR conditions with scattered heavy SHRA Sunday afternoon.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed for next several days.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will persist through most of the week as high pressure remains anchored northeast of the state. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Sunday afternoon for the typical windy channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island. This advisory many need to be extended further, as borderline conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday. Late in the week, the focus will shift to the deep tropics southeast of the state, where a tropical cyclone could develop.
A pair of south-southwest swells will produce south shore surf near August average this weekend and near to above average Monday and Tuesday. A larger swell will arrive Tuesday night and may push surf to the High Surf Advisory level late Wednesday through Friday. This swell should slowly decrease next weekend.
Along east-facing shores, short-period trade wind swell will generate surf just below August average through Thursday. Depending on how potential tropical cyclone development plays out southeast of the islands, an increase in east swell is possible Friday and next weekend. Surf along north-facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the week.
Due to a combination of peak monthly high tides and water levels running higher than predicted in a few locations, minor coastal flooding will be possible around the afternoon high tide as early as Sunday, with peak conditions Monday through Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
