A ridge to the north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds into the weekend. Limited clouds and showers will be focused along windward and mauka areas this morning. A drier airmass is moving in from the east and is expected to further limit shower activity into the weekend. Higher than normal dewpoints will continue to bring muggier conditions to the islands today.
No significant changes to the forecast at this time. The PoPs and associated grids were tweaked to be more in line with the latest NBM data. The overall forecast has changed little.
A 1036 mb high remains far north-northeast of the islands with an associated ridge near 40N. A weak trough moving through the islands overnight will continue to move to the west and dissipate over the next day or two. The high is expected to sink southward slowly over the next couple of day as it slowly weakens. The result will be little change in our trade winds. Generally moderate trades are expected with some locally breezy conditions.
Satellite derived precipitable water shows a drier airmass will be moving into the islands later today, and lingering into the weekend. Expect some more typical trade winds showers this morning, and then as we head into tonight, a decrease in shower activity.
Dewpoints have been in the low 70s in many locations the last couple of days, making it feel muggier than normal. The models show another day of these dewpoints, with dewpoints slowly dropping back into the 60s starting late tonight/early tomorrow.
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. low cigs and SHRA expected along windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in SHRA otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conds should improve mid morning.
AIRMET Tango is not currently in effect but may be needed over the next few days for mod turb downwind of terrain due to the winds.
Surface high pressure far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through this afternoon before declining slightly to become moderate to fresh through the rest of the forecast period. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through this afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island and may need to be extended through tonight.
A small, medium-period south swell will gradually decline through tonight. This fading swell combined with a series of small, medium- to long-period south-southwesterly swells, will deliver below-average surf along south-facing shores through Friday. Over the holiday weekend and into early next week, a small to moderate, long-period south-southwest swell will arrive, boosting surf heights to near or slightly above average.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy and may increase today as trade winds briefly strengthen. Surf along north facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period, with a minor uptick possible Friday into the holiday weekend as a small, medium-period northwest swell arrives.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
