Northeasterly trade winds should gradually weaken through Monday. Brief passing showers will drift into the islands on the trade winds, favoring windward and mountain areas during the overnight to early morning hours. A significant change to our weather pattern is expected early next week. Deep tropical moisture will bring the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms across the state starting Monday night and persisting through at least Thursday.
Moderate trade winds will prevail today with some isolated breezy conditions at PNHY and PHMK. Otherwise, windward and mountain areas on Big Island will see an increase in showers which may cause temporary MVFR ceilings and visibilities in any shower that passes through.
Moderate turbulence has been reported between 23,000 and 34,000 feet over the open water areas north and east of the islands. The moderate nature and forecast for continued weakening of the winds preclude any AIRMET or SIGMET headlines at this time.
Looking ahead, widespread MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy showers and low ceilings are possible beginning Monday Night into Tuesday morning; see the main discussion for details on the upcoming heavy rain and flooding potential.
Issued at 328 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026
A surface low far northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to dig southward today and stall roughly 800 nm northeast of the state by Monday, keeping the subtropical ridge just north of the area rather weak. In response, trade winds will remain gentle to moderate today, then decrease further to gentle by Monday. A low pressure trough will then approach the area from the southwest late Monday and bring heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms to the waters through much of the work week. Winds will remain in the gentle to locally moderate range.
A medium period north-northwest swell will slowly ease through Monday, with surf reaching near or slightly above seasonal averages. By late Monday, a long- period northwest swell will arrive and help generate moderate surf along north- and west- facing shores through Wednesday. A small north- northeast swell should arrive during the second half of this week.
A series of small overlapping south-southwest swells will keep surf along south-facing shores to around seasonal averages through early this week. A larger south-southwest swell may push surf slightly above seasonal average by mid to late this week.
Surf along most east-facing shores will be small through early next week, but areas exposed to wrapping northerly swells will experience periods of moderate surf through Monday. East-facing shores should also see a bump in surf if the north-northeast swell materializes during the latter half of this week.
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