A breezy trades will briefly weaken over the weekend, before increasing again early in the new week. Mostly dry conditions will prevail, with clouds and brief showers favoring windward and mauka locations, mainly during the overnight through early morning hours, as areas of moisture move through periodically.
No changes to the forecast this morning, however the Big Island summit winds are near Wind Advisory criteria so keeping a close eye on the winds there. Winds will hover near the advisory criteria into Saturday before trending downward.
High pressure far to the north-northwest of the state will drift to the east, with a ridge of high pressure remaining north of the region. This will maintain a trade wind pattern into the middle to end of next week.
Expect a return to a drier trade wind pattern to become established within the next 24 hours or so. Mid and upper level ridging will help to maintain that drier trade wind pattern into next week. Clouds and showers will be riding in on the trade wind flow, and remain focused over the typical windward sides of the islands. Those showers will be concentrated during the overnight and morning hours. Clouds and limited showers are also expected over the west slopes of the Big Island mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
The breezy trades will hold today, and then ease into the light to moderate range over the weekend as the ridge to the north weakens to a low passing far to the north. The southern extent of a mid- to upper- level trough associated with this system will pass near the islands to the north late today and into the weekend, which could support a slight increase in windward shower coverage during the overnight/early mornings. Rising upper heights along with a strengthening surface ridge to the north will support dry conditions prevailing early next week with breezy easterly trades returning.
Moderate trade winds will remain in place today then will weaken gradually later this evening into the weekend. A band of low clouds and showers will continue bringing MVFR clouds and showers to the windward portions of the islands with improving conditions expected by mid morning. Trade wind showers could then increase again by this evening.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Maui and will likely be cancelled later this morning as showers are expected to decrease in coverage.
A series of surface highs will build and pass north of the state through early next week. Moderate to locally strong trades will persist today, then weaken slightly over the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect until 6 PM HST today for the typical windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Trades will become fresh to locally strong again early next week.
Moderate surf along south facing shores will decline slightly today. A series of small, medium period swells will persist through the weekend keeping south facing shores from going flat. Small, short- period north swell will continue into into the weekend. A larger moderate medium period north swell reinforcement will arrive early Sunday. Surf along east facing shores will remain small but can expect a minor boost as winds pick up Monday.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
