Locally breezy trade winds will continue but ease a bit early next week. A trend toward fewer windward and mauka showers, and more sunshine, is expected Sunday as drier air pushes in on the trades. At this time, we don't see any significant areas of enhanced moisture moving toward the state, so relatively dry trades should continue through late next week.
Radar shows only isolated light showers this afternoon as an area of higher moisture has now moved west of the state. Winds were moderate to breezy, with sustained winds averaging 10 to 20 mph and gusts blowing 20 to 30 mph (30-35 at the usual windy spots).
A strong surface high well to the north will keep moderate to occasionally breezy trade winds blowing for the next week (at least), with only slight variations in speed. Showers should be relatively light because moisture will be limited, with PW values coming in around a quarter inch below normal. Models are not displaying any significant areas of increased moisture headed toward the state over the next 5-7 days.
We are keeping an eye on the developing tropical disturbance several hundred miles SW of Ixtapa, Mexico. Various ensemble systems have been showing a small potential for this system to bring us some tropical trouble in about a week and a half or so. It's much too early to forecast any details, and please note that may ensemble members don't bring it near the state. However, let it serve as a good reminder to stay, or become, prepared.
Moderate trades will continue through Sunday, with just a slight decrease in speed tomorrow. Clouds and isolated to scattered showers will remain over windward and mauka locations. Conditions will be VFR apart from isolated MVFR over windward and mauka areas in clouds and showers.
No AIRMETs are in effect.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue tonight and slowly begin subsiding tomorrow afternoon into Monday. As a result, the SCA will be scaled back to the typical areas around Big Island and Maui tonight before dropping off completely tomorrow night. Winds will then be moderate Monday and Tuesday as the high pressure to the north weakens. High pressure will then rebuild and restrengthen trade winds during the second half of next week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain near the summertime average through the afternoon and tonight. A larger, moderate south swell is expected to build Sunday through early next week, bringing potentially High Surf Advisory level conditions Monday and Tuesday. As this swell slowly fades into the middle of next week, another moderate south- southwest swell is expected to arrive on Thursday, keeping surf elevated into next weekend.
A small, medium-period west-northwest swell will gradually fade through the weekend, causing surf along north-facing shores to drop to flat/tiny levels.
East facing shores will remain choppy tonight and then will gradually drop through the rest of the weekend into early next week as trade winds ease. Energy from Tropical Storm Elida may reach the islands during the middle of next week and bring a slight boost for east facing shores. Additionally, as the trades ramp up during the later half of next week, surf will also increase.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay.
