An unstable and somewhat wet trade wind pattern will continue through tonight, with brief downpours possible. From Wednesday into early next week, an area of high pressure north of the islands will push drier air into the region. Trades are expected to become windy by Thursday and Friday, then will gradually ease back to locally breezy levels this weekend.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist today and increase on Wednesday as the atmosphere gradually becomes more stable. Periods of MVFR conditions will primarily affect windward mountain areas, though an isolated heavy shower could develop over leeward terrain this afternoon.
No AIRMETs are in effect. We will monitor for potential mountain obscuration across windward areas. Increasing trade winds and stability will eventually require AIRMET Tango for low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain.
Locally fresh trades become strong to locally near-gales during the latter half of the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect and will eventually be expanded to all waters as winds and seas build later this week.
Small, short to medium period NNW swell will fill in today. This will be followed by a small NNW swell emanating from a strong low near the Aleutian Islands by late week. A series of small, long period SSW swells supports near-average surf along S shores. Meanwhile, strengthening trades maintain elevated surf and short period fresh swell along E facing shores into next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
