Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce breezy trades through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. An increase in moisture will bring enhanced showers to windward and mauka locations this weekend, particularly Saturday night into Sunday morning. The next plume of moisture could then arrive by the middle of next week, otherwise a typical summertime trade wind shower distribution is expected.
Moderate to breezy trades continue across the state, with pockets of embedded light to moderate shower activity expected to impact windward sites at times, occasionally spilling over into leeward areas. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across most locations, with occasional localized MVFR/IFR conditions in association with low clouds and shower activity.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet for windward of all islands. This is expected to persist throughout the period as shower activity continues, even if showers prove to be intermittent at times.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue as this ongoing trade wind pattern persists.
Strong high pressure centered north of the state will remain nearly stationary through the forecast period. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through this afternoon as the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect till 6 pm for all Hawaiian waters. Trades will remain fresh to strong through the weekend so the SCA may need to be extended this afternoon.
The current small medium-period south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swell will plateau today just below the summer average. A small to moderate, long- period southwest swell (220 degrees) is expected to fill in late Saturday through Monday, which can elevate surf to the summer average through early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate- to long-period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells are expected to arrive late today and hold into early next week, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. Surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny with no significant swells forecast from the north or northwest.
Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the latter half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
