We will remain under the influence of a ridge to our northwest for the coming week. Combined with Tropical Storm Pena to the south, and moderate to breezy trades will continue through tomorrow. Wind speeds decrease Tuesday but increase again Wednesday and remain near to above-normal through the end of the coming week. Showers will continue mainly windward and mauka.
An area of showers was located over and north of Molokai as of 3 PM HST this afternoon. They were moving west-southwest and will reach Oahu before 6 PM HST. Otherwise, isolated showers were over Maui and Lanai. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy windward and mauka, with mostly sunny skies over most leeward areas. Winds averaged 10-20 mph, with the usual windy places gusting 30-35 mph.
A persistent area of high pressure at the surface will be centered to our northwest for the coming seven days. Combined with Tropical Storm Pena to the south, this will keep trades blowing. Wind speeds will decrease a little Tuesday, but otherwise will be at or just above normal values. Isolated to scattered showers are to be expected windward and mauka as minor increases in moisture occasionally move through.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue into Monday. The drier airmass will limit overall shower coverage, but windward areas could have isolated showers and MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence within the lee of higher terrain.
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail through tomorrow as high pressure remains in place north of the state. Tropical Storm Pena continues to move westward, passing several hundred miles south of the Big Island. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through tomorrow afternoon for most Hawaiian Waters due to a combination of winds and elevated seas. Winds are expected to ease slightly late Monday and Tuesday as the ridge to our north erodes and Pena moves away to the southwest. The SCA will then be trimmed back to the typical windy waters around Big Island and Maui at that time. Trade winds are then expected to strengthen again on Wednesday as a new high builds to the north and could remain strong through the remainder of the week. A surface trough will move into the region on Thursday from the north, bringing unsettled clouds and showers across the coastal waters.
A medium period swell out of the north-northwest (325 to 350 degree) will hold through the rest of the afternoon before gradually decreasing tonight. Another small to moderate swell fills in Monday night, keeping small to moderate surf in place through Tuesday. A large northwest to north- northwest swell is then forecast to arrive late Wednesday into Thursday and could bring surf near or right at warning levels.
A small south-southwest swell will keep seasonal average surf in place this afternoon before declining Monday through the remainder of the week.
Rough surf along east-facing shores will hold at or above seasonal average tonight and tomorrow. Surf will decrease slightly by Tuesday as trades begin to ease before increasing again by Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
