Light winds and humid conditions will persist through Wednesday as a weak trough lingers near the state. Interior clouds and a few showers will develop during the afternoon hours, followed by partial clearing overnight. Trade winds will gradually return Thursday and Friday, bringing a more typical pattern of mainly windward and mauka showers with a few afternoon showers over leeward areas. A slight increase in showers remains possible this weekend as an upper disturbance approaches the islands, followed by stronger trade winds and more stable conditions early next week.
The humid land and sea breeze pattern with dewpoints hovering in the upper 60s will continue through Wednesday as the weak trough meanders near the central portion of the island chain. Expect partial clearing overnight, followed by another round of interior and leeward clouds and isolated to scattered showers Wednesday afternoon. Shower chances may remain slightly enhanced near central islands where the trough is located.
Kilauea eruption episode 46 ended a few hours ago, and the Ashfall Advisory for portions of the Big Island has ended.
Light to moderate trade winds will gradually return Thursday and Friday as the subtropical ridge rebuilds north of the state. Showers will become more focused over windward and mauka areas, though localized afternoon sea breeze clouds and a few showers may still develop over sheltered leeward terrain. Dewpoints are expected to ease back into the mid 60s later this week, bringing some relief from the recent humidity.
By the weekend, an upper-level disturbance approaching the region could lead to a slight increase in showers, though uncertainty remains elevated due to model differences regarding the timing and strength of these features. More stable conditions and stronger trade winds are expected to return early next week.
A light background wind prevails with land breezes expected overnight into Wednesday morning. Expect VFR conditions as cloud and shower coverage clear throughout the overnight period. Light winds are expected through midweek.
No AIRMETs are in effect.
A trough over the far northwest offshore waters will slowly track south through the islands, reaching the central waters Wednesday. This, combined with a larger synoptic scale low pressure system far to the north will lead to light and variable winds, with sea and land breezes present near the immediate coasts. The subtropical ridge building north of the state will bring a return of light to moderate trades Thursday and Friday, with the trades strengthening to moderate and fresh levels over the weekend. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through at least Friday.
A moderate medium-period northwest swell will gradually fade over the next couple of days. A new long period swell originating from a gale force low south of Kamchatka will build Wednesday night and give another boost to north and west shore surf Thursday and Friday. Surf will gradually decline over the weekend into early next week.
A series of overlapping south swells will keep intermittent small surf rolling into south facing shores. A small, long-period swell arriving Wednesday from a storm-force low that tracked southeast of New Zealand last week will likely provide a small bump in south shore surf through the end of the week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain below normal during the next several days due to the lack of strong trades over and upstream of the islands.
Ashfall Advisory until 8 PM HST this evening for Big Island Southeast-Big Island East.
