A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift east, however a broad ridge north of the region will remain in place keeping easterly trade winds in the forecast through into next weekend. An upper level trough approaching the islands on Monday will deepen into an upper low near Kauai by Tuesday, leading to increasing cloud and shower trends across the region through the week. Shower activity will favor windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours with brief periods of showers drifting into leeward areas.
Moderate trades will continue through the period. Intermittent MVFR is possible across windward sites due to low cigs and showers, but VFR conditions are broadly anticipated. Shower activity may ramp up starting around sunset Monday as an upper- level system moves toward the islands.
No AIRMETs are in effect, however a mountain obscuration AIRMET may be needed if low clouds become more widespread due to oncoming shower activity.
Issued at 353 PM HST Sun Apr 26 2026 Easterly trade winds have eased slightly compared to the past couple of days as a weak surface trough moves through the region from east to west. Guidance indicates trades will strengthen somewhat tonight and Monday, with borderline Small Craft Advisory-level winds possible in the typically windier waters surrounding Maui County and the Big Island. Winds look to strengthen more significantly by mid-week as strong high pressure rebuilds far north of the state, with increased confidence for advisory-level winds, potentially including additional coastal waters.
Surf along north-facing shores will begin to gradually ease tonight into the first half of the week as the offshore buoy 51001 (to the northwest) shows decreasing medium-period swell energy over the past several hours. An upward trend is expected during the second half of the week as swell generated by a broad low near the Aleutians reaches Hawaii. Looking farther ahead, a storm- force low developing east of Japan on Monday looks to direct a longer-period northwest swell toward the islands for Friday and Saturday, with surf heights potentially approaching advisory levels along exposed north and west facing shores.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain somewhat inconsistent as a southwest swell peaks this evening/tonight. This will be followed by a gradual downward trend on Monday. Another small south-southwest pulse may arrive next weekend from activity within our swell window east of New Zealand.
Surf along east facing shores will remain relatively small and choppy, though a brief strengthening of the trade winds tomorrow could lead to a small bump in surf.
None.
