A ridge to the north of the islands will sink south and gradually strengthen, allowing moderate trade winds to build back to locally breezy levels over the weekend. Clouds and showers will remain focused mainly along windward and mauka areas through the middle of next week. A drier airmass moving in from the east is expected to induce a drying trend that limits shower activity into the weekend.
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. Low cigs and SHRA should focus over windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to leeward areas. MVFR conds possible otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island due to SHRA. Conds should improve in the mid morning hours.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb blw 090 downwind of island terrain.
Issued at 345 PM HST Thu Jul 2 2026
A surface high pressure far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through the forecast period. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended into the weekend. The SCA will likely remain in place through the forecast period as the high remains nearly stationary with minor fluctuations in strength.
Forerunners of a small, long period south swell are filling in this evening and will peak tonight into Friday. This swell will help maintain near to just below summertime average surf along south facing shores into the weekend. A moderate, long period south-southwest swell will fill in Saturday afternoon and evening, boosting surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday and Monday. This swell will slowly fade Tuesday through the middle of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to locally strong trades hold. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny into Friday with a minor uptick Friday afternoon into the holiday weekend as a small, medium period northwest swell arrives. Tiny to near flat conditions for north facing shores will return next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
