Light to moderate background trade winds will prevail, allowing sea breezes to develop in sheltered leeward areas each day through Monday. A brief increase in windward showers is expected Monday night into Tuesday, especially for the easternmost islands. Moderate trade winds will begin building back into the region during the second half of the week, becoming locally breezy again by the weekend.
Light to moderate trade winds are expected through Monday. Isolated afternoon clouds and showers are possible over terrain sheltered/leeward areas due to the light winds. Windward and mountain areas will generally see limited shower activity. An incoming surface trough east of the state will provide an increase in showers to windward areas of the Big Island Monday night. Expect MVFR conditions within any showers, and VFR to prevail elsewhere.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect on the Big Island from Apua Point to South Cape to PHKO to 15 nm NE of PHKO for tempo mountain obscuration above 2500 feet due to low clouds and showers. However, conditions will likely improve over 10Z tonight.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds continue through Tuesday before decreasing by mid-week into the light to moderate range. Slight day to day fluctuations are expected, then trades are expected to strengthen towards the end of the week as high pressure builds north of the area.
A long-period south swell will hold through Monday, producing elevated surf along south and west-facing shores, but it will remain below advisory levels. South shore surf will decline gradually Tuesday into Wednesday, but a new long-period south swell arriving late Wednesday will provide another bump in surf for Thursday and Friday.
A small long period northwest swell will keep small surf in place tonight for north-facing shores. Surf could decrease a little on Monday morning before another small, long-period northwest swell arrives Monday afternoon and peaks Tuesday. This swell is expected to boost north shore surf to moderate levels. A moderate mid period north-northwest swell is possible by the end of the week into the weekend, depending on the evolution of a projected low in the north Pacific. However, confidence is low given differences in model solutions with this feature.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain small as local winds remain fairly weak with only slight variations each day. Small, moderate-period west and east swells generated by multiple Pacific tropical cyclones continue to move through the islands through Monday.
None.
