The flooding threat over Big Island has diminished tonight with improving conditions expected through early Friday. Lingering light to occasionally moderate intensity showers will pass across the state through Friday but the majority of this activity will be too light to re-initiate flooding. Trade weather returns this weekend with a frontal passage early next week significantly limiting rain chances while producing a few days of very comfortable, relatively cooler and drier conditions.
Disorganized -SHRA/SHRA from Maui to the Big Island with trade winds increasing for Kauai to Molokai. Embedded SHRA/+SHRA from eastern Maui to the Big Island with VCTS/-TSRA for the windward Big Island including PHTO. MVFR/VFR common this afternoon and will persist into the evening with brief IFR CIGs/VIS under -TSRA/+SHRA. Overall coverage of SHRA wanes a little overnight with increasing trade winds for tomorrow.
Trade winds from Kauai to Molokai with more variable directions from Maui to the Big Island. Gusty and erratic winds possible around TS on the windward side of the Big Island.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect abv 020 for Oahu, Molokai, Maui, Lanai, and the Big Island through North to East areas. Conditions likely to persist into the evening.
AIRMET Tango for Turbulence remains in effect from Lanai to the Big Island. Moderate turbulence between 100-FL200. AIRMET Zulu is no longer in effect for light icing.
Issued at 418 PM HST Thu Oct 29 2026
Weak trough over the central waters will slowly move south and dissipate Friday. This has continued to support showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern waters and looks to continue through this evening before conditions slowly improve. Ridging to the north will gradually drive moderate to fresh easterly winds over most waters Friday through the weekend. As trade winds increase, a Small Craft Advisory for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island is likely late this weekend into early next week.
The current northwest swell will gradually decline through the evening before a small short period north-northeast swell will fill in Friday and maintain small surf. A larger, long- period northwest swell will arrive late Saturday and will likely push surf above the High Surf Advisory threshold Sunday into Monday. The swell will shift more northerly and may briefly build further on Monday before dropping Tuesday. At the peak of the swell coinciding with the 360 degree direction, a Marine Weather Statement may need to be issued to due the potential for harbor surges at Kahului and Hilo harbor.
Surf along south facing shores will slowly rise through this evening, peak Friday just below High Surf Advisory levels, and gradually decline through the weekend. By early next week, surf looks to remain tiny to small through the forecast period.
Surf along most east-facing shores will remain small and choppy through today but will rise Friday with the wrapping north to north- northeast swell energy, producing periods of moderate surf. Exposed shorelines to the north swell may be impacted along the east side Sunday night into Monday with the potential for surf to reach High Surf Advisory level surf possible.
None.
