Periods of moderate to heavy rain continue over Leeward Big Island and Maui while conditions improve elsewhere. There is a threat for heavy rain during the latter half of this week as low pressure develops west of the islands.
Issued at 820 PM HST Sun Mar 15 2026
The system that has plagued the area continues to move northeast. Low cigs and SHRA continue across the area and will slowly decrease from west to east tonight into tomorrow. Some MVFR conds are possible. The lone exception is Lanai which is LIFR with fog thats expected to last into the morning. Winds have weakened over the state and will continue that trend into tomorrow. There still could still be some gusty winds especially over Maui and the Big Island.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc from Molokai to the Big Island. Oahu may be added especially over windward locations overnight. Conds in general will imp west to east and this AIRMET will be adjusted as necessary.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod mid-upper level turb between 130 and FL330. It is is also in effect for turb downwind N thru E of terrain statewide. As winds diminish and this system moves further away from the islands this will be adjusted in the overnight hours.
Light icing is possible between 130 and FL260 as mid-high clouds continue moving through the islands.
The Kona storm that has impacted the region over the past few days will weaken as it moves northeast and away from the area, with conditions improving over the coastal waters. Latest hi-res guidance shows that locally strong winds may linger over portions of the central and eastern waters tonight. Additionally, buoy observations show that seas remain elevated, with Barber's Point and Hanalei still reporting 10ft and 12ft significant wave heights this afternoon, respectively. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) that was previously in effect has been extended in time through tonight to capture the seas for the western waters and locally breezy winds in the central and eastern waters (with the exception of the Southeast Big Island zone where the SCA has been cancelled). By early Monday, both winds and seas are expected to fall below advisory criteria. Winds will then remain light and variable through mid-week. Ridging is forecast to strengthen north of the islands late in the week, which should bring a return of moderate to fresh trade winds.
Large, rough surf along south-facing shores that has been observed over the past few days will trend lower tonight and Monday as wind speeds subside. A new long-period south swell will arrive late Monday night and Tuesday, giving an extended boost to south shore surf through late this week.
A moderate sized, short-period west-northwest swell will continue to affect north and west facing shores through Monday, but surf will remain below advisory levels. The one exception is for west facing shores of the Big Island, where a High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 6 AM HST. This short-period swell will lower Monday night and Tuesday, while a new medium-period north- northwest swell fills in. This north-northwest swell could bring surf up to advisory levels Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the swell then shifting more northerly and lowering below advisory levels Thursday into next weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain well below normal levels through the middle of the week, before trending upward Thursday into next weekend as trade winds return over and upstream of the islands.
Flood Watch until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast- Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward- Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North- Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry- Windward Haleakala.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island Summits- Haleakala Summit.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kohala-Kona.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
