Tropical Storm Fausto will track northwest of Maui and the Big Island tonight allowing winds to become light and variable. Breezy northerly trade winds will hold over the western half of the state through tonight. Expect numerous to scattered clouds and light to moderate showers windward and northerly exposed slopes with some spillage over the leeward areas. Light and variable winds will then shift over Kauai and Oahu Wednesday while breezy southeast winds develop over the eastern end of the state as Fausto continues to weaken and tracks northwest of the state. In this lighter wind regime, land/sea breeze pattern will develop. Localized heavy showers will remain possible through Wednesday. A stable and slightly drier breezy trade wind weather pattern will filter in across the state Thursday onward as Fausto dissipates and the trailing tongue of moisture moves west of the islands.
Weakening winds due to Tropical Storm Fausto moving WNW north of the islands will allow a land/sea breeze pattern to develop. While some windward and mauka SHRA are expected in the overnight and early morning hours, SHRA are also possible in the afternoon over island interiors. MVFR conds likely within any heavier SHRA with some isol IFR conds. Otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward sections of Kauai to Maui. Conds should improve east to west in the morning hours.
Aviation interests near the Hawaiian Islands should monitor updates to TC SIGMET Sierra, which covers Fausto, as the system passes north of the islands over the next few days.
Issued at 359 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026 Moderate to fresh north-northeast winds will be in place over the western half of the state through tonight as Tropical Storm Fausto nears the central islands. As Fausto passes by through Wednesday, winds will be light and variable over the coastal waters, followed by southerly then southeasterly winds immediately in its wake. As Fausto moves off to the northwest and high pressure builds to the north, east- northeast trades will build back in on Thursday then strengthen to fresh to locally strong levels on Friday through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windward waters and channels due to high seas from the east swell through tonight.
Nearshore buoys on the eastern side of the islands are still running high with the medium- and long-period energy from Fausto, with the buoys near Oahu and Kauai coming up as well. The surf is expected to gradually drop off tonight through Wednesday. A High Surf Warning for east facing shores remains in effect through Wednesday afternoon, but could be downgraded earlier if surf heights drop faster than expected. East shore surf will trend back up Friday into the weekend due to a combination of rising trade wind swell and a new long-period east swell generated by Hurricane Genevieve.
A series of south swells will keep south shore surf near the summer average (5-6ft) through the week. Surf along N shores could also see some brief increase as Fausto (or its remnants) pass near the region through Wednesday, then return to typical flat to tiny levels late Wednesday into the weekend.
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kauai East- Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast- Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters- Pailolo Channel.
