A ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Pena passing far to the south will maintain A breezy and gusty trade wind pattern over the islands through today. Trades will ease briefly during the first half of the week to more typically speeds before picking back up during the second half of the week as a strong high surface pressure settles north of the state. Pockets of moisture riding in on the trades will focus showers over the windward and mauka areas through mid week. A band of moisture may move through the state from the north during the second half of week.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through the day. A drier regional air mass will limit areal shower coverage. Better organized showers passing across windward terminals may produce infrequent, short-lived MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence within the lee of higher terrain.
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail through the day as high pressure remains in place north of the state. Tropical Storm Pena continues to move westward, passing several hundred miles south of the Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through tonight for most Hawaiian Waters due to a combination of winds and elevated seas. Winds are expected to ease slightly late Monday and Tuesday as the ridge to our north erodes and Pena moves away to the southwest. The SCA will likely be trimmed back to the typical windy waters around Big Island and Maui at that time. Trade winds are then expected to strengthen again on Wednesday as a new high builds to the north and could remain strong through the remainder of the week. A surface trough will move into the region on Thursday from the north, bringing unsettled clouds and showers across the coastal waters.
A medium period swell out of the north-northwest (325 to 350 degree) will hold through much of the day. This swell will gradually decrease from tonight into Monday before another small to moderate swell fills in Monday night, keeping small to moderate surf in place through Tuesday. A large northwest to north- northwest swell is then forecast to arrive late Wednesday into Thursday and could bring surf near or right at warning levels.
A small south-southwest swell will keep surf around the average today before declining Monday through the remainder of the week.
Rough surf along east-facing shores will hold at or above seasonal average through this weekend. Surf will decrease slightly by early next week as trades begin to ease before increasing again by Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
