Breezy trade winds will persist through today, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. An upper level disturbance will briefly move over the state on Friday and will bring the threat of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms over select areas. While widespread heavy rain is not expected, pockets of heavy rain with some flooding impacts will be possible on Friday. Wetter than normal conditions will likely persist through the weekend especially over windward and mauka areas, where scattered showers are expected.
Issued at 352 AM HST Thu May 14 2026
Breezy trades expected for next few days. Low cigs and SHRA expected along windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible but VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for turb, lee of terrain due to the breezy trades.
Issued at 935 AM HST Thu May 14 2026
High pressure far north of the islands maintains locally strong trades until an upper disturbance causes winds to weaken by this weekend. Our current fresh to locally strong trades should hold through the day today, then gradually weaken and veer towards the east-southeast tonight into Friday. Moderate to fresh east to east-southeast winds are expected Friday into the weekend. The SCA remains in effect for the windier zones of Maui County and the Big Island through this afternoon. The upper level disturbance will bring the threat of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms on Friday.
A new small to moderate, long period NW to NNW (320 degree to 330 degree) swell continues to fill in this morning and will likely peak later today and produce above average surf along north facing shores. Latest readings on buoy 51001 continue to show swell heights of 4 feet 14 to 15 seconds, which is in line with guidance. This swell should gradually fade tonight into the weekend.
Small, medium to long period S swell maintains small surf along south facing shores. A series of gales initially passing south of New Zealand a few days ago and now setting up E of New Zealand should send a series of small south swells all of next week. Surf should rise to near the summer average around Sunday and hold near the summer average throughout next week. Meanwhile along east facing shores, locally strong trades will maintain rough and choppy surf along E facing shores. A slight decrease of wind swell is expected Thursday into Friday as the trades weaken to moderate to locally fresh speeds.
Tides peak around 2.5 ft MLLW this weekend. Combined with ongoing trades and a modest boost in S swell, water levels will peak around 3.0 ft late this weekend into early next week. Minor overwash of low lying coastal areas will be possible during the afternoon high tides at this time.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
