Mostly dry and pleasant trade wind weather will continue today, with brief passing showers favoring windward and mauka areas. A significant pattern change is then expected by Tuesday as an upper disturbance and surface low pressure evolve northwest of the islands. This system is expected to draw deep tropical moisture northward over the state, leading to an extended period of southerly winds, increased chances for widespread rainfall, and renewed flooding concerns from from the middle of the week through the weekend.
A ridge north of the islands continues to bring moderate trades to the islands. As the ridge slowly sinks southward, in response to a front far to the northwest pushing to the east, trades will weaken and veer to a more southerly direction. Passing showers being carried in on the trade wind flow could bring brief MVFR conditions, however VFR conditions are generally expected
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for clouds and showers impacting the east side of Oahu, but anticipate this to be dropped shortly after daybreak. AIRMET Tango is in effect for upper level turbulence over the islands.
Moderate to locally fresh trades will hold through this afternoon as high pressure far north of the islands moves slowly eastward. Winds will ease and shift southeasterly tonight through Wednesday as a front stalls just west of the islands. The winds will turn more southerly and increase to moderate and strong levels on Thursday as a low pressure system develops along the stalled frontal boundary.
Small northwest swells will keep some small surf along north facing shores through today. A moderate long-period northwest swell will fill in tonight and Tuesday, giving more of a boost to north shore surf late Tuesday through Wednesday. A small, short period north northeast swell will fill in during the day Tuesday before peaking Wednesday and subsiding Thursday. This overlap will make for some rough choppy conditions.
A small southerly swell will keep some small surf in place along south facing shores through today. A slightly larger, long-period south swell, will fill in tonight. This swell will give a more noticeable increase to south shore surf Tuesday and possibly reaching advisory levels by Wednesday before slowly easing Thursday into the weekend. Strengthening southerly winds could make for rough choppy surf by late next week.
East shore surf will remain small and below the seasonal average during the next 7 days due to a lack of strong trade winds over and upstream of the islands, except for some wrap from the northerly swells.
None.
