Light winds and fair weather will persist across the state over the next several days. A weak front will approach late Thursday and will bring an increase of showers over the smaller islands on Friday with moisture lingering over the eastern half of the state Friday night into Saturday. Some periods of light to moderate rain is expected especially over windward and mauka areas during this time. A much stronger front is possible early next week.
Issued at 350 PM HST Mon Jan 26 2026
Satellite imagery shows that the front has dissipated, but we are still seeing some lingering clouds and some light showers this afternoon for parts of Oahu and Kauai. For rest of the day and tonight, we will continue to see some moisture linger around the western half of the state with some clouds and possibly a few showers. Otherwise for the eastern half of the state, any clouds this afternoon should be on the decrease this evening and tonight as land breezes develop.
From Tuesday through Thursday, we should see a fair weather pattern due to a ridge of high pressure over the state. Light winds will allow sea breezes to develop by late morning, which should allow for some afternoon clouds over interior and mountain areas. For the most part, it should mainly be just afternoon cloud build ups, but a few light showers can't be ruled out each afternoon.
Around Thursday night, global models are in fairly good agreement with a weak front approaching from the northwest and pushing through the smaller islands on Friday. Models are showing the front stalling out and weakening over parts of Maui County and the Big Island Friday night into Saturday. Shower activity will generally increase across many areas, but the most frequent shower activity will be confined to windward and mauka areas, where brief periods of some moderate rainfall will be possible. The threat for heavy rain or thunderstorms will be minimal due to stable conditions aloft during this time.
In the extended, long range models are showing a deep upper level trough developing over the area early next week with a strong cold front making its way through the state. At this time, the front is looking progressive and will likely bring a quick shot of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Stay tuned for more updates.
Issued at 350 PM HST Mon Jan 26 2026
Moisture along the remnants of a front will gradually lift to the north tonight as gentle to moderate southeasterly winds develop. The front stalled this morning and brought widespread MVFR conditions to windward and northern terrain of Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai. Conditions have improved on Molokai as the front started dissipating, but AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect on Oahu and Kauai. As high pressure moves northeast of the state tonight, the gentle to moderate trades will veer out of the southeast, pushing remnant frontal moisture northward and improving conditions on Oahu and Kauai. AIRMET Sierra may be lifted as early as late afternoon on Oahu and should be dropped everywhere by midnight. On Maui and Big Island, VFR will prevail.
On Tuesday, a surface ridge will develop over the island chain and drive gentle to moderate southeast to south winds. Some interior clouds and isolated showers will form in the afternoon, but VFR will likely dominate.
Issued at 350PM HST Mon Jan 26 2026
The cold front that settling into the central coastal waters this morning has washed out. Surface high pressure north northeast of the islands is progressively passing east. This will veer light winds east southeast over the eastern two thirds of the island chain, more southerly over the western waters surrounding Kauai. The next front will stay north and skirt the far northern waters at mid week with a secondary front passing across the region Friday. Winds will veer more southeast to south ahead of these boundaries through Thursday. The backing surface high will be far northeast of the islands Saturday night as post-frontal northerlies Friday veer around to more trade-like by late Saturday or early Sunday. Winds quickly veer more southerly Sunday ahead of the next in this series of fronts. An early week front may travel across the islands Monday or Tuesday of next week.
Surf along exposed north and west-facing shores has remained small as the medium period northwest swell that arrived Sunday continues its gradual decline. A small to moderate size, medium period north northwest swell, whose origin source is traced back to a broad storm low tracking east near the Aleutians this past weekend, will arrive tonight. North shore surf could approach advisory levels as this swell peaks Tuesday night before slowly easing Wednesday into Thursday. Another larger northwest swell is expected later this week as a broad, complex low evolves over the far northwest Pacific. This swell is scheduled to arrive and travel around the island chain Thursday. This may evolve into a long duration event, with a peak centered around Friday and Saturday. Confidence is still low concerning this late week swell as model guidance still needs to come better in-line with the magnitude and timing of this swell.
Short-lived, choppy wind wave chop will occur along east-facing shores the next day or so in response to return trade flow. A downward trend is anticipated Tuesday as winds veer more southerly.
South-facing shore surf may also trend up slightly Tuesday as a result of a small, background long period south swell. This swell will ease by mid week.
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