Moderate to breezy east southeast winds and mainly stable conditions are expected this weekend. A significant pattern change will begin early next week as a deep low pressure system evolving northwest of the islands turns winds from the south. This southerly flow will allow deep tropical moisture to move northward and overrun the state. This scenario will increase the chances for heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and strong winds next week. These impacts have a higher probability of starting over the western waters and from Oahu westward late Monday. This activity is forecast to advance east and impact the entire island chain through the middle and latter part of next week. The slow- moving nature of this system to the west signals that this active weather pattern may persist into next weekend.
Issued at 914 AM HST Sat Mar 7 2026
Scattered to broken high clouds will move over the state today. Brisk east southeast flow across Hawaii expected today with a slight weakening by Sunday. Winds will carry in scattered clouds that will anchor over southeast slopes and bring isolated MVFR ceilings and brief mountain obscurations, increasing a bit tonight across Kauai and Big Island.
AIRMET Tango in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 7000 feet across downwind slopes (south across northwest facing). Expect this AIRMET to continue through the day then dropping off tonight or Sunday. Directional LLWS possible at the PHOG/OGG runway.
Issued at 914 AM HST Sat Mar 7 2026
Strong high pressure far to the northeast of the state will maintain fresh to strong trade winds through the weekend, with the strongest winds over the typically windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from the windward Oahu waters and Kaiwi Channel eastward through 6 pm Sunday, with the exception of Maalaea Bay. This SCA may need to be extended for portions of the marine area through Sunday night. A front approaching from the west will ease the trades and shift them southeasterly on Monday, with the winds then becoming southerly and increasing to fresh to strong levels Tuesday and Wednesday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain elevated and choppy through the weekend, trend downward on Monday, then lower below normal levels Tuesday through late next week.
A series of west-northwest swells will keep some small surf in place along north and west facing shores during the next 7 days, but surf will remain well below advisory levels. A small to moderate sized north swell is possible around Thursday and Friday of next week.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small through early next week, with the exception of areas exposed to trade wind swell wrap. Rough and choppy conditions appear to develop Tuesday and continue through late next week as southerly winds increase in advance of a front. A series of small long period south swells will also move through Monday through late next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
