Breezy trade winds will persist through much of the week with minor fluctuations as surface high pressure holds north of the state. Pockets of moisture moving in the trades will focus rainfall over windward and mauka areas with showers briefly passing over leeward areas. An area of deeper moisture may enhance showers on windward Big Island and Maui County Friday and Saturday.
Breezy trades expected for next few days. Low cigs and SHRA will continue over windward and mauka locations with some spillover into leeward areas. MVFR conds in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for the smaller islands and windward Big Island. Conds should improve through the day.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod turb lee of terrain and should remain in effect for next few days. There is also mod turb for FL250-300 across the islands, which could extend through much of the day.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will persist for the rest of the week as the north-south pressure gradient from higher pressure north of the state remains tight over the local waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely remain across many zones the next several days due to this combination of strong trades and responding elevated seas. An area of disturbed weather crossing 140W far southeast of the islands today will be monitored for the high likelihood of tropical cyclone development. If a tropical cyclone does develop, it is forecast to travel south of the Hawaiian Islands early next week.
North and west-facing shore surf will continue to fall today as a small north northwest swell fades and turns more northerly. A moderate size, long period northwest swell will arrive overnight. This swell will push north and west-facing shore surf to High Surf Advisory levels Thursday into Friday. A moderate size, medium period northwest swell is expected to fill in Saturday. This swell will likely prolong elevated moderate size north surf through the weekend.
A compact fetch of gales passing east of New Zealand late last week created swell that should reach Hawaii around Friday. This south southwest swell may produce slightly above average south- facing shore surf. Moderate to strong trade winds will ensure east-facing shore choppy wind waves through the remainder of the week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
