A strong pressure gradient has developed over the state as a strong high sits north of the state and Major Hurricane Lowell passes roughly 450 miles south of Hilo. This gradient is generating very windy and gusty trades over Maui County, the Big Island, and over Oahu. Trades are expected to continue to strengthen across the state Thursday where portions of Kauai may be added to the wind advisory. Drier air is filtering so chances particularly during the overnight through early morning hours each day. The forecast remains uncertain for the upcoming Labor Day weekend due to both Lowell and Karina remaining in the central Pacific over the coming days.
VCSH along windward sides of the islands through this evening with cigs locally going down to MVFR. Elevated winds will remain through the night; moderate confidence in wind gusts over 30 kts at some TAF sites by Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing through the period.
Hurricane Lowell is forecast to pass far south of the island chain the next couple of days. On this westerly track, regional trade winds will remain strong per a tight pressure gradient between the hurricane and high pressure to the far north.
AIRMET Sierra has been issued for IFR and SHRA for KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI through 20Z.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence south through west downstream of high terrain. AIRMET Tango will likely be in effect for the foreseeable future.
Issued at 425 PM HST Wed Sep 2 2026 As a strong surface high persists far north of the Hawaiian Islands and interacts with Hurricane Lowell passing to the south, trade winds will strengthen across the coastal waters to become fresh to locally near gale force. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all Hawaiian Waters through Thursday night and will likely get extended into Friday. The offshore waters is currently seeing tropical storm conditions over the far southern waters while the core of hurricane force winds remains just outside the area through Thursday. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the far southern offshore waters.
While there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the exact track of Lowell, confidence is fairly high that the southwest and western offshore waters will see Hurricane conditions. How close it gets to the state, is yet to be determined. As for Hurricane Karina, confidence is increasing that Karina will pass to the north and northeast of the state.
Swells from Hurricane Lowell will steadily fill in across rest of the island chain tonight into Thursday and will likely produce advisory level surf for south and southeast exposures throughout the state. Swells from Lowell will likely linger through next week and will gradually veer from southeast to south tonight through Thursday and eventually towards the southwest early next week. While, the forecast for swells and seas for next week will highly depend on the eventual track and intensity of Lowell, confidence is beginning to increase for the potential of extra-large surf (exceeding warning levels) along south and western exposures early next week. Additionally, the current moderate long period south swell will peak tonight then gradually decline through the rest of the week.
A large, medium-period east swell from Hurricane Karina will steadily fill in Friday into the weekend and will likely produce high end advisory level surf or warning level surf along east facing shores by this weekend.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Big Island South- Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro- Kahoolawe-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai West-Niihau-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala-Koolau Leeward- Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
