Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

812 pm hst Fri Oct 9 2026

Synopsis

Moisture will decrease through the weekend as light to moderate trades return. Showers will be mainly windward and mauka. We'll see a brief increase in showers Monday night on the Big Island before a return to relatively dry trades through the end of next week.

Aviation

Gentle land breezes will persist through this evening before moderate trade winds build back into the islands over the weekend. VFR conditions will prevail at all airfields.

No AIRMETS are currently in effect or expected.

Marine

Issued at 330 PM HST Fri Oct 9 2026

Moderate to fresh trade winds will build back over the windward waters and channels this weekend, though weaker winds will remain in place over the western waters due to a trough west of the area. Although there will be slight day to day fluctuations, gentle to fresh trades will prevail throughout much of next week.

The current moderate, long period south swell will fade gradually through the weekend, but a long-period reinforcement is set to arrive on Saturday, then peak Sunday into Monday. This will maintain elevated surf along south-facing shores, but it will remain below advisory levels. South-shore surf will decline slightly by the middle of next week, only to be followed by a new long period swell Wednesday night or Thursday.

Small to moderate surf is also expected along north and west facing shores as a medium-period swell produced by low pressure to the northwest of the islands peaks this evening and tonight and then declines through the weekend. A smaller long period northwest swell is also forecast to move through the islands this weekend and fade by the beginning of next week. A swell similar to, or slightly larger than, the current one will arrive on Monday and peak Tuesday, boosting north shore surf again but staying below advisory levels. Surf along east facing shores will remain small as local winds remain fairly weak with only slight variations each day.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

None.

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