Moderate trades weaken giving way to land and sea breezes through early this week. Increasing moisture will move up the island chain from the southeast through the early portion of the week resulting in increased shower coverage over island interiors. Trades return late Wednesday and continue through the forecast period.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mtn obsc above 2500 feet for windward Maui and windward/southeast Big Island this afternoon as clouds and showers linger at the eastern end of the state. These areas will likely remain under the AIRMET tonight as upstream moisture slowly moves in. Additional windward areas of Oahu and Molokai could be added to the AIRMET overnight. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere with no other AIRMETs anticipated.
The trade winds have weakened into the light to moderate range today as a large North Pacific low has weakened the ridge north of the islands. The ridge will gradually restrengthen north of the state Monday and Tuesday, allowing the trades to slowly return to moderate and fresh levels. High pressure north of the islands will strengthen further by the middle to latter part of next week, bringing fresh to strong trades back to the waters. Small Craft Advisories are likely to be required for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island by as early as Tuesday.
The current long-period south swell is beginning to fade this afternoon, with surf falling below advisory criteria. Surf will remain below advisory criteria tonight and Monday as forerunners from a new long-period south swell arrive, the first hints of which have just been detected on offshore buoys this afternoon. This next south swell looks to be larger than the previous, with surf expected to return to advisory levels Tuesday through Thursday. There is some potential that surf will peak close to warning levels on Wednesday.
Surf along north-facing shores will remain small through Monday, then trend slightly higher Tuesday through Friday as a pair of overlapping small north-northwest swells move through. North shore surf will drop back to nearly flat levels next weekend.
East shore surf will remain below normal through Tuesday due to lack of trade winds over and upstream of the state. Surf will trend upward Wednesday and Thursday and hold close to seasonal levels Friday through next weekend.
None.
