Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

303 am hst Thu Mar 26 2026

Synopsis

A drier and more stable trade wind pattern is expected into at least the middle of next week. Showers should be mostly focused along windward and mauka locations through the period. Nights will be cool in sheltered areas this weekend.

Discussion

Light trade wind showers were detected by radar this morning along windward and mauka areas. Satellite shows typical clouds expected for a trade wind pattern. Winds will continue to ease today before picking back up slightly through the weekend as a weak front moves through. This front will bring another shot of dry air to the region. Lowering dewpoints through Monday should allow for cool nights in most areas. Another plus from the dry air will be enhanced evaporation, helping to eliminate standing water from the recent flooding and perhaps aid in cleanup.

Aviation

Mostly dry and stable conditions with moderate northeast trade winds will prevail across the island chain over the next 24 h. Brief periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible in passing showers, mainly for windward sites.

Marine

A low pressure system northeast of the islands and a high pressure system to the far northwest of the Hawaii region will keep northeasterly trade winds in the forecast through the week. Wind speeds will briefly ease through Friday, and the Small Craft Advisory was cancelled this morning. Fresh to strong trade winds bring a return of SCA conditions from Saturday into the first half of next week as high pressure builds north of the state.

A medium period swell will peak around 3 feet today before gradually declining through the weekend. For east facing shores, short period wind wave energy from northeasterly trade winds will hold into the weekend. Strengthening northeasterly winds this weekend and a swath of gales associated with a low around one thousand miles northeast of the islands will lead to the potential for high surf advisories along north and east facing shores from Sunday into early next week.

For south facing shores, small background energy pulses will keep surf heights above flat conditions into early next week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

None.

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