Moderate trades deliver showers windward and mauka through the weekend.
Little change for the next several days as moderate trades deliver showers windward and mauka into next week. Upper air pattern remains blocky with a closed upper low positioned northwest of Kauai and downstream ridging established over and east of the remainder of the state. As the upper low is drawn northward and absorbed into the westerlies, heights gradually rebound over the islands topping out around 591dm at 500mb by this weekend. Attendant subsidence will reinforce high stability during this time. Brief veering of flow through the lowest 10kft of the atmosphere as this adjustment occurs potentially sets the stage for showers to develop within the convergent leeward Molokai plume and extend over portions of Leeward Oahu this afternoon into this evening. High stability will limit potential for vertical shower development and should keep shower intensity in check, but some enhanced coverage of showers compared to normal will be possible.
Moderate trades expected through the forecast period. Low cigs and SHRA should primarily impact windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for Kauai, Oahu Maui and the Big Island. Conds should improve in the mid morning hours.
High pressure far north of the islands will maintain a trade wind pattern, however as the high has weakened and lifted away from the islands, trade winds are not quite as strong. Winds across the coastal waters remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds could rebound Thursday into the weekend as the high sinks southward, tightening the pressure gradient over the islands and bringing Small Craft Advisory winds back to the typical windy waters.
A small bump in the otherwise fading medium-period southwest swell (around 2.5 ft with a 13 second period) should bring a slight increase in south surf today, particularly this morning. The southwest will return to a gradually decline by tonight and continue through the rest of the week. A series of overlapping small south and southwest swells will maintain small south shore surf, with a larger south swell expected early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will be slightly below seasonal averages through Thursday with lighter trade winds. Surf may then climb back up somewhat as trades strengthen through the weekend.
A series of small, long to medium period west to west-northwest swells generated by former Super Typhoon Bavi will be possible throughout the rest of the week. Otherwise, no significant north or northwest swells are expected.
None.
