Southeastly low level winds will bring some light showers along windward and mauka locations through Tuesday. A front will move into the western end of the state Tuesday night. Increased moisture will linger for several days and possibly into the weekend.
Some light isolated showers continue to move across the state this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows sunny skies outside of those showers. Clouds and showers will continue to move from the southeast through the rest of the evening. Light to moderate southeast winds will continue to veer through tomorrow, leading to warmer and more humid conditions. They will become light enough to allow for a sea/land breeze set up. A cold front will approach Kauai County Tuesday night.
Latest guidance is still showing a variety of solutions on timing and extent of the eastward movement of the front. Right now it looks like the front will stall near Oahu Wednesday afternoon. Thursday and Friday, there are roughly equal chances that the front then gets pushed to near the Big Island, or alternatively pulls back west toward Kauai. Either way, moisture will increase over the state and the chance of rain increases over all islands. This has as much to do with increasing moisture coming in on southeast low level flow over the eastern part of the state as it does moisture from the front itself.
Models also indicate that the extensive moisture could remain over the state through the coming weekend. Overall, it will be a return to a wetter and warmer pattern. There is a small risk of thunderstorms, heavy rain, and flooding, but details are clear as mud and thus confidence is too low for any specifics.
A light to moderate east-southeasterly wind regime is expected to continue as a front from the NW moves closer to the islands. The winds will continue to be light enough to allow land and sea breezes to occur within the next 24 hours. Light and isolated showers embedded within the flow are possible, but VFR conditions are still expected statewide.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, and none are anticipated through tonight.
Southeast winds will continue weakening through Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will reach the far northwest coastal waters Tuesday night, moving down the the island chain Wednesday and stalling out across Oahu and Maui County Wednesday. Northeast winds will increase along and behind the front, and remain stronger across the western half of the state through Friday.
A moderate, long period, northwest swell is expected to arrive in the islands Tuesday, and linger into the middle of the week, and slowly subside during the end of the week. This swell will maintain elevated surf near advisory levels along exposed north and west facing shores.
East shore surf will remain small into Tuesday as winds taper off. Surf will increase a little bit as the northeast winds pick up along the front, but mostly impact Kauai and Oahu. There are no noteworthy swells for the next few days for south facing shores.
None.
