Trade winds weaken Thursday as a surface trough passes over the islands. The trough also brings an increase in moisture that will produce an uptick in shower activity through Friday. A new potential tropical system is forming southeast of the state (90% chance of formation). Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center will likely begin Thursday morning.
Issued at 533 PM HST Wed Aug 19 2026 Moderate trades expected through tomorrow. Some windward and mauka SHRA possible with isol MVFR conds, especially into Thursday.
A tropical Cyclone may impact the region late this weekend.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
Issued at 533 PM HST Wed Aug 19 2026 High pressure to the far northeast will gradually weaken over the next couple of days. As a trough to the east of the islands passes on a westward track across the region, moderate trades will become light and variable for most waters by Thursday, allowing daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes to become established. By late Friday, moderate to locally fresh trades will begin to build back into the region as the high drifts southward closer to the island chain and an area being watched closely for potential tropical development nears the state from the southeast. The forecast for this weekend will depend on how this next potential tropical cyclone evolves.
Surf along south facing shores will remain slightly below average through Thursday, with background swell energy in place. A long period south-southwest swell generated from gales just south and east of New Zealand will begin arriving late Thursday into Friday, boosting surf to near average. Surf along east facing shores will continue to fade as background flow becomes weaker, then build heading into this weekend as the trades restrengthen. North facing shores will remain tiny through Friday, with a slight bump from Lala swell (290 to 300 degrees) possible this weekend.
None.
