High pressure drives breezy trades into next week. Expect showers focused windward and mauka during this time. An uptick in shower coverage is anticipated Thursday night into the weekend, particularly overnight and during the morning.
Upper air pattern between roughly 20N and 30N remains stagnant and blocky through the period with upper ridging flanked on either side by closed lows. Governing high pressure changes little in position or intensity for the remainder of the week leaving the islands in a rather typical breezy trade wind pattern. Medium range guidance is in strong agreement that increased moisture characterized by PWATs in the 1.5" to 1.75" range will become entrained in prevailing trades leading to an uptick in shower coverage and intensity of showers from Thursday night into the weekend as the inversion weakens and lifts to around 12kft. A noteworthy increase in humidity at the surface also occurs during this time as dewpoints rise into the low 70s. The increased mugginess will be somewhat offset by continued breezy trades.
Moderate to breezy trades will continue for the next several days. Low clouds and scattered showers will move over windward and mountain areas, with some spillover into leeward sites. VFR for most sites at most times, with occasional localized MVFR mainly for windward/mauka sites.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate to occasionally severe low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days.
A strong high pressure ridge centered north of the state will help to drive fresh to strong trades across all local waters through Tuesday afternoon. Winds will ease slightly to fresh to locally strong by midweek and beyond. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters through Tuesday afternoon.
A moderate, long period, south southwest (180-190 degrees) swell will continue to generate surf along south facing shores just below advisory levels. This swell will slowly fade Tuesday through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend with mainly background energy. Another moderate, long period south southwest swell (210-220 degrees) may fill in Sunday but due to the direction of the source could be more inconsistent than this current swell.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. Expect flat to tiny surf along north facing shores through the forecast period.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian waters-
