Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

836 pm hst Sun jul 5 2026

Synopsis

A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored in place north of the Hawaiian Islands for the foreseeable future. Easterly trade winds will continue to blow across the region through the end of this week. Shower activity will remain limited with brief increasing trends on Tuesday, and stronger trends from Thursday through Friday as a weak easterly wave moves from east to west across the state. Any showers that develop in this trade wind pattern will favor windward mountain slopes of each island during the overnight to early morning hours.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the period. Low clouds and scattered showers will continue to impact windward and mountain areas, with some spillover into leeward sites. VFR conditions are broadly expected, with localized MVFR mainly for windward/mauka sites.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days.

Marine

High pressure maintains fresh to locally strong trades through the week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all local waters.

A moderate, long period, SSW swell will maintain through Monday and help boost surf along S shores to just shy of the Advisory levels. Energy associated with this swell is spread across the spectrum and not necessarily focused in the long period bins. This increases confidence that an Advisory will not be needed.

Surf along E facing shores will remain choppy through the week as fresh to locally strong trades hold. Surf along N shores remains flat to tiny.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

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