Trades remain weak through Friday as a trough advances north of the islands. Tropical Depression 2C has formed southeast of Hawaii and is forecast to track south of the area early next week bringing strengthening winds and potential for heavy rainfall, especially to the eastern end of the state.
A surface trough will continue to move from east to west through the western end of the islands chain overnight and allow for weak trade wind flow. Thus, low clouds and mainly isolated light showers area expected along the windward coasts. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, except those pockets of MVFR in clouds and showers. Trades will begin to fill back in tomorrow morning, strengthening first across the Big Island and Maui during the morning, then across the remaining smaller islands by the afternoon.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, and none are expected through Friday night.
A trough just north of the islands will track northwestward across the offshore waters, leading to a period of light and variable winds for most waters through tonight. By late Friday, moderate to locally fresh trades will begin to build back into the region as the trough exits to the northwest, high pressure drifts southward closer to the island chain, and Tropical Depression Two-C nears the state from the southeast. The forecast for this weekend will depend on the track of this tropical cyclone, but overall the trade winds are expected to strengthen with gale force winds possible over the windier channels of Maui and the Big Island around Sunday.
Surf along south facing shores will remain slightly below average through at least Friday morning. A long period south-southwest swell generated from gales just south and east of New Zealand is beginning to trickle in this evening, and is expected to provide a slight bump in surf heights, possibly becoming near average by Saturday. Surf along east-facing shores remains below average with weak trades, then is expected to build this weekend as the trades restrengthen. Surf along east and south-facing shores will be compounded by a southeast swell generated by Tropical Depression Two-C that will build through Sunday and then become south, then southwest through early next week. This short-period tropical swell could cause surf to approach advisory levels along east facing shores of the Big Island Saturday night into Sunday, though forecast confidence is on the lower side as the wind field with this tropical cyclone is expected to be relatively small and the forecast track may shift slightly. North facing shores will remain tiny through Friday, with a slight bump from Hurricane Lala possible this weekend out of the west-northwest direction.
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