The subtropical ridge will slowly build back in over the Hawaiian Islands as Tropical Storm Nolo continues to drift westward away from the Hawaii Region. Higher pressure returning to the islands from will produce easterly trade winds, increasing atmospheric stability, lowering humidity levels and decreasing shower trends through the weekend. Brief passing showers will favor windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Increasing cloud cover and shower trends may return from Monday night into Thursday morning due to a passing disturbance.
Moderate southeast winds will continue today across the state as Tropical Storm Nolo moves away. Showers loosely associated with Nolo will continue to track over Kauai and Oahu today with MVFR conditions likely with brief periods of IFR conditions possible. Trade winds will push in a drier airmass and slowly fill in overnight.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration above 2000 feet over Kauai, and Oahu. On the Big Island, conditions have improved over the western half of the island so AIRMET Sierra has been trimmed down to PHTO to Cape Kumukahi to South Cape through the morning hours above 2500 feet. Cloud build ups likely by afternoon across Maui County and Big Island before dissipating tonight.
Issued at 318 AM HST Fri Oct 2 2026 Moderate to fresh east to southeasterly winds will prevail across the region today as Tropical Storm Nolo lingers amongst the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Nolo will begin to accelerate westward away from the Hawaiian Islands today, which will diminish its influence on Hawaiian waters. Gentle to fresh east to northeast trades fill back in across the waters this weekend into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the typically windy channels late this weekend for locally strong trades. By mid-next week, troughing developing northwest of the islands may cause the trade winds to weaken and veer out of the southeast once again.
A moderate, medium-period west to southwest swell originating from Tropical Storm Nolo will continue for Niihau and Kauai today before quickly fading tonight. Meanwhile, a small, background south swell continues for other islands, holding surf mostly steady along south facing shores through the weekend. A new small, long-period south swell, originating from a large fetch of gale force winds southeast of New Zealand earlier this week, is forecast to arrive beginning Sunday and peak Monday through Wednesday.
Surf along north-facing shores will see a tiny bump today into tonight as a small, short-period northerly swell moves through the region. Small surf is possible early next week as a small, medium-period northwest swell arrives this weekend and peaks on Monday, followed by a slightly larger northwest swell peaking on Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will see a slight boost and become more choppy as easterly trades build back into the region this weekend.
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