Trade winds will continue through the upcoming week. Showers should favor windward and mauka areas, most frequently at night and during the early morning hours. Overall, the next week will be drier for most folks than this past week.
Radar this morning shows some isolated to scattered showers ongoing across the state. In addition satellite shows thin high clouds continuing to stream over the region from the west- southwest with lower clouds moving in with the trades.
At upper levels, a ridge north of the islands, spread across much of the Pacific south of 35 deg N, will dominate our weather for the upcoming week. A minor weakness in the ridge may develop late in the week, but guidance is in relatively good agreement that it won't be enough to weaken the associated surface ridge. We will experience a typical trade wind pattern, with showers mainly windward and mauka with some limited spillover to leeward areas. Winds look to be moderate to breezy, strong enough to be concerning for boaters, but probably not strong enough for wind advisories on land.
Stable trade wind weather is expected today, with trades increasing a bit more to breezy levels by the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to ride in with the trade winds, especially over Kauai and windward areas. Showers will be most prevalent in the overnight through morning periods, which could produce brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail at area terminals.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for north through east sections of Kauai due to some lingering moisture in the area.
AIRMET Tango is also in effect for low-level turbulence downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through the next several days. In addition, AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper level turbulence over the islands. Model guidance indicates that upper level turbulence is expected to largely diminish later this morning as the upper jet over the islands weakens and moves farther east.
High pressure remains in place north of the Hawaiian Islands this week in maintenance of fresh to locally strong trades continuing into next weekend. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
A small medium period NW swell maintains small surf along N and W shores today. Another small long period NW swell arrives Wednesday afternoon and peaks early Thursday.
Two additional small long period S swells arrive today and on Thursday keeping surf heights along S facing shores above flat levels. Surf along E shores remains below normal in the near term, with increasing surf peaking by Wednesday as trade winds strengthen.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
