A weak surface trough will gradually move east to west across the islands tonight through Saturday, resulting in relatively light winds and a combination of trade showers and sea-breeze showers (during the afternoons). As this trough dissipates, trades will build in stronger Saturday night through Sunday, and even stronger trades are forecast for next week from Tuesday onward.
Light to moderate trades gradually return tonight, becoming locally breezy tomorrow morning and persisting through the next several days. Expect cloud and shower activity to develop along the typical windward and mauka areas, resulting in periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over Kauai due to lingering showers. There will be consideration for AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence as trades gradually return.
A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the islands with gentle to fresh trade winds for most coastal waters with periods of strong trade winds developing over the windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island from Sunday onward. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for these windier waters by Saturday night.
A declining moderate, medium-period, northwest swell will continue to bring elevated surf to north and west facing shores tonight. This swell and associated surf will slowly fade through the weekend. A new small, medium period northwest swell arrives on Saturday, leading to a small bump in north and west shore surf on Sunday. For the first half of next week, surf will be small with the lack of any significant northerly swell energy.
Background long period swell energy will keep small surf along south facing shores.
Surf along east facing shores will remain below normal this weekend, but will gradually increase through next week as trade winds gradually strengthen.
None.
