Relatively light east-southeast winds will continue through Sunday. An increase in moisture across western islands should lead to an increase in showers Sunday into Monday before trades return late Monday and begin to push the moisture to the west. Fairly dry trades (potentially strong) will then dominate our weather for most of next week.
Issued at 402 PM HST Fri Feb 27 2026
Satellite shows partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Winds were out of the east-southeast over the water, and highly variable over land. Radar indicates isolated light showers, mainly over Kauai and the Big Island.
A shallow upper level ridge axis will basically remain over the islands through Saturday before moving off to the east Sunday. A trough will replace it, and attempt to push a boundary (weak cold front) into the western end of the state. The latest guidance shows it will most likely make it to Kauai County, with a lower but still notable chance to make it to Oahu. Upper level support will be minimal, so there is very little chance for heavy rain even though low level moisture will increase significantly.
This front pulls back off to the west by Tuesday as a strong surface high pressure system develops to the northeast, and fairly strong trades are forecast to quickly build back into the area beginning Tuesday. Showers will follow a typical trade wind pattern, falling mainly windward and mauka. Looking long range - there are no indications of significant weather systems through next weekend.
Issued at 402 PM HST Fri Feb 27 2026
Trade winds have eased and shifted more east-southeast today as a front approaches from the west. As speeds have decreased, daytime sea breezes have increased cloud cover over island interiors. VFR flight conditions are prevailing over the islands, and very few showers are observed across the region this afternoon.
This evening and overnight tonight, expect that these sea breezes will transition to overnight land breezes, clearing skies over the islands. Rather dry conditions will persist, with light showers limited primarily to windward areas.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are anticipated through tonight.
Issued at 402 PM HST Fri Feb 27 2026 A weakening cold front to the northwest of the islands will keep moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds across area waters through the weekend. Localized land and sea breeze conditions will develop near sheltered coasts as a result. The front degenerates into a trough and surface high pressure strengthens to the north of the islands early next week, allowing fresh to strong easterly trades to return.
Surf along exposed east-facing shores has become fairly small as a north-northeasterly swell continues to taper off. Surf will hold at low levels as a fresh, short- to medium- period north- northeast swell from a gale centered around 1200 nautical miles northeast of the state arrives over the weekend. Short-period and choppy conditions are expected to return by midweek with the redevelopment of the trade winds upstream of the state.
Surf along north- and west-facing shores will trend up beginning Saturday as a west-northwest swell arrives from a series of gales rounding the base of a broad low south of the Aleutians near the Date Line. This swell will be of longer duration, peaking early next week before gradually lowering into midweek. Surf from this swell may fluctuate over time as the source region experiences multiple wind maxima.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain near or slightly below the seasonal average into March.
None.
