Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

804 pm hst Tue Jun 23 2026

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected through the weekend. An increase in moisture through Wednesday will cause showers to increase over windward and mauka areas. Limited spillover is possible to leeward areas. Drier conditions should arrive late Wednesday and remain through Saturday.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades expected through the rest of the week. A trough moving up the island chain is causing low cigs and SHRA with IFR/MVFR conds. Conds should improve east to west as the trough moves through.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai, Molokai, Lanai and Maui. It is also in effect for the entire islands of Oahu and the Big Island. This may be expanded or augmented through the night as conditions warrant.

While AIRMET Tango is not in effect at this time it is possible as the winds increase tomorrow it may be needed for mod turb downwind of island terrain.

Marine

Issued at 330 PM HST Tue Jun 23 2026 A low-level trough passing from east to west across the Main Hawaiian Islands tonight will continue to enhance rain shower activity for all coastal and offshore waters. As the trough passes west of the islands tonight, in combination with a strengthening subtropical ridge to the north, trade winds are forecast to increase, prompting the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island. Winds will remain moderate to locally strong, which will likely require the SCA to remain in effect through the weekend.

A series of small to moderate, medium to long period south and southeast swells will keep surf along south facing shores elevated through the week. A small, medium period south swell will continue to fade through Wednesday. The forerunners of the next long period south swell will begin to arrive in the islands by Wednesday morning, and then build into Wednesday night, peaking on Thursday with head high to overhead surf heights at most exposed south shore surf breaks.

Surf along east facing shores will gradually build through Wednesday and then hold into the weekend as trade winds strengthen. West facing shores will remain on the small side with a slight south swell wrap. Surf heights along north facing shores experienced a bump today with a bit of north swell energy, though this is forecast to fade tonight returning surf to fairly flat conditions. Another tiny bump in surf is possible Wednesday night into Thursday with a little bit of west-northwest swell energy arriving.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

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