The high pressure system north of the islands will remain in place through Sunday with brief passing showers possible, favoring the windward and mountain areas. This weather pattern changes significantly from Monday to Tuesday as a cut off low moves into position several hundred miles northwest of Kauai. Southerly winds on the east side of this low will draw up unstable moisture from the deep tropics, increasing the threats of heavy rain, thunderstorms and flooding across the state.
Issued at 319 PM HST Thu Mar 5 2026.
East-southeast moderate surface winds will continue tonight and Friday. There will be areas of MVFR in low clouds and showers, mainly on east and south sections of Kauai and Oahu. VFR in most locations.
AIRMET Sierra currently in effect for E through S Kauai and Oahu, and this is expected to continue into tonight.
Issued at 319 PM HST Thu Mar 5 2026.
Fresh to locally strong east-southeast trade winds will continue tonight into Friday as high pressure remains centered far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through Friday evening for the typically windy channels and waters of Maui County and the Big Island. This general wind pattern is likely to hold through the weekend. A large low pressure system approaching from the west this weekend will stall northwest of the islands beginning early next week. Winds will veer more southerly in response to the low's cold front making a close approach, or even entering the northwest offshore waters, by mid-week. Locally strong southerly winds will be possible depending on how close the cold front gets to the islands.
Surf along north and west-facing shores will remain small as a series of small, long- to medium-period northwest swells reach the Hawaiian Islands over the next week or so. Forerunners of the next small northwest swell have been observed at northwest Hawaii buoy 51001 today, and should arrive in the islands this evening. This small northwest swell is expected to provide a small bump in surf along north and west-facing shores. It will be followed by another small northwest swell that will maintain the small surf through the weekend. A compact storm-force low currently just off the coast of Japan will likely produce another small west- northwest swell early next week.
Choppy east shore surf will remain near seasonal averages as east-southeasterly trade winds vary minimally over the next few days, with a chance for a slight increase over the weekend. Surf along east-facing shores will then decline early next week as winds veer more southerly.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small through the weekend, but is then expected to increase and become choppier with the shift to a more southerly wind direction early next week. A small, long-period south swell is also possible around Tuesday of next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
