Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

900 am hst Tue Jun 23 2026

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds expected through the rest of the week. An increase in moisture is expected through Wednesday causing showers to increase along windward and mauka locations. Some limited spillover is possible over to leeward areas. Some drier conditions move in for the weekend.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds expected through midweek. A trough is moving up the island chain from the east and will continue its trajectory through Wednesday. Expect an increase in SHRA and low cigs causing MVFR conds.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc across N - SE sections of Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, and Maui. Expect these conditions to continue through today. The AIRMET may be expanded to include Kauai and Big Island later today as well.

Marine

The subtropical ridge will strengthen north of the islands through Wednesday, increasing trade wind speeds to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds from Wednesday morning on into the weekend across the windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island. A low level trough passing from east to west across Hawaiian Coastal and Offshore waters from Tuesday into Wednesday along with an upper level disturbance will enhance rain shower activity for all waters.

A series of small to moderate, medium to long period south swells will keep surf along south facing shores elevated through the week. A moderate, medium period south swell will slowly fade through Wednesday. The forerunners of the next long period south swell will begin to arrive in the islands by Wednesday morning, and then build into Wednesday night, peaking on Thursday with head high to overhead surf heights at most exposed south shore surf breaks.

Surf along east facing shores will gradually build through Wednesday and then hold into the weekend as trade winds strengthen. West facing shores will remain on the small side with a slight south swell wrap. Surf heights along north facing shores will remain fairly flat due to the lack of significant north swell energy.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

None.

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