Breezy trades will gradually ease through the rest of the week. Moisture embedded in the trades will allow showers to favor windward and mauka areas through Friday. An overall wetter pattern is expected this weekend as additional moisture is drawn over the island chain and an upper level disturbance moves overhead. Strengthening trades early next week will return a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern, followed by more stable conditions by mid to late week.
Issued at 825 PM HST Thu Feb 19 2026
Breezy trade winds will continue to weaken slightly through tomorrow as high pressure to the north weakens. Isolated to scattered windward showers are expected overnight and into Friday. Brief MVFR due to visibility in showers was observed earlier today and will remain possible in the strongest showers through tonight, with the greatest chances occurring at Hilo.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000 feet over leeward sides of the islands as a result of the strong low level winds. We also have light to moderate turbulence aloft between 26kft and 38kft. This AIRMET is expected to continue into the evening. However, conditions may become marginal as winds decrease through the period.
Issued at 825 PM HST Thu Feb 19 2026
Strong trades will persist into Friday, then begin to ease over the weekend as a gale nearby to the northwest lifts north- northwestward and away from the region. Winds may become light enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established over the weekend. Seas will respond by gradually lowering, likely falling below the 10 ft Small Craft Advisory level by Saturday. In addition to the winds and seas, expect a wet pattern with isolated thunderstorms to develop late Friday into the weekend as an upper disturbance moves over the state.
Surf along exposed east-facing shores will remain rough, with heights hovering around advisory levels through Friday. A downward trend will follow over the weekend as winds diminish locally and upstream of the state.
Surf along exposed north- and east-facing shores will quickly build through the day Monday as a long-period north-northeast swell from a broad storm-force low evolves off the northwest Pacific coast this weekend. A large area of northerly gales between this system and a 1048 mb blocking high centered over the Aleutians will expand southward Friday through the weekend, with the head of the fetch reaching less than 1,000 nautical miles from the state. Heights will reach warning levels for exposed north- and east-facing shores by late Monday through Tuesday. Although a gradual downward trend is anticipated by midweek, additional pulses from this same system will keep surf above advisory levels for east-facing shores through much of the week. This swell direction will bring surf into some typically protected areas such as Kua Bay, West Maui, and exposed shores of Lanai.
Other impacts from this north-northeast swell direction could include significant erosion along some coasts and accretion at other locations as sand shifts opposite the normal winter pattern, particularly along north-facing shores. Additionally, overwash along vulnerable sections of coastline and roadways will be possible beginning Monday night during high tide cycles, including typical areas in Hilo Bay. Mariners can also anticipate harbor surges in Kahului and Hilo associated with this swell direction.
Surf along exposed west-facing shores will rise early next week as a long-period northwest swell arrives from a broad storm-force low currently located over the far northwest Pacific near the Kurils.
Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for Niihau and Kauai.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Leeward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
