Breezy trade winds will persist into Thursday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Friday into the weekend, trades will ease slightly and a passing upper-level disturbance, along with increasing moisture, should bring an uptick in trade wind shower activity, with pockets of heavy rain possible. Then a more stable, breezy trade wind pattern should redevelop by midweek next week.
Breezy trades expected for next few days. Low cigs and SHRA expected along windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible but VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for turb lee of terrain due to the breezy trade winds.
High pressure established north of the islands maintains locally strong trades until an upper disturbance causes winds to weaken by this weekend. Our current fresh to locally strong trades should hold through the day Thursday then gradually weaken and veer towards the east-southeast Thursday night into Friday. Moderate to fresh east to east-southeast winds are expected Friday into the weekend. The SCA remains in effect for the windier zones of Maui County and the Big Island through Thursday afternoon.
Small, short period NW swell fades tonight and will be replaced by a small to moderate, long period NW swell that will peak on Thursday bringing small to moderate surf to favored exposures. Latest readings on buoy 51001 is showing long-period forerunners in the 15 to 17 second energy bands, which should steadily fill in tonight.
Small, medium to long period S swell maintains small surf along S shores. A series of gales initially passing south of New Zealand a few days ago and now setting up E of New Zealand should send a series of small south swells all of next week. Surf should rise to near the summer average around Sunday and hold near the summer average throughout next week. Meanwhile along east facing shores, locally strong trades will maintain rough and choppy surf along E facing shores. A slight decrease of wind swell is expected Thursday into Friday as the trades weaken to moderate to locally fresh speeds.
Tides peak around 2.5 ft MLLW this weekend. Combined with ongoing trades and a modest boost in S swell, water levels will peak around 3.0 ft late this weekend into early next week. Minor overwash of low lying coastal areas will be possible during the afternoon high tides at this time.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
