After showers and isolated thunderstorms depart the Big Island tonight, an upper level ridge will move in and bring a return to cooler and drier trades from Tuesday through Thursday. Winds will veer to southeast Friday and remain that way into the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures and a sea- and land-breeze pattern. Sunday night into early next week has the potential for another boundary and another wet pattern.
Issued at 308 PM HST Mon Feb 23 2026
The Flood Watch which had been in effect for Maui County, where only light showers remain, has been cancelled. Radar shows stronger showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Big Island. The thunderstorms were located near Volcano. Breezy to locally windy trade winds have developed and are expected to remain over the area through Thursday. This will bring additional showers over the next few days, mainly windward and mauka, as usual.
An upper level ridge will finally replace the trough that has brought significant rains to the area in recent days. As the trough moves out to the east tonight, it will take any remaining thunderstorms with it. Tuesday through Thursday we will see a typical trade wind pattern. Drier and cooler air will be advected into the region. This will allow for cool mornings in areas sheltered from the trades.
As the upper level ridge axis moves east of the state Thursday night into Friday, our low level flow will veer and become southeasterly. This will begin to slowly increase low-level moisture. As wind speeds weaken, sea- and land-breezes will develop this coming weekend. This pattern typically results in showers forming both windward and leeward. Long range models show the potential for a boundary to bring an increase in showers Sunday night or Monday of next week.
Issued at 308 PM HST Mon Feb 23 2026
Breezy trades continue through the period with limited showers focused over windward/mauka portions of Kauai and Oahu until the arrival of a band of trade wind showers late tonight. Meanwhile, satellite observations suggest continued low clouds and pockets of MVFR conditions along the windward coasts of Molokai and Maui for at least the next several hours. The return of trades to the Big Island is on pause as a mesoscale/remnant convective low advances southeastward past the island and backs low-level winds to the NW. This will in turn favor a shore-parallel orientation to showers through the near term, but expect showers to make a concerted push toward Hilo during late aftn/early evening.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for Maui County.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod upper turb FL270/350.
Issued at 308 PM HST Mon Feb 23 2026
Strong high pressure remains far north of the state, while a surface trough stretching across the Big Island drifts southward. Fresh to locally strong northeasterly trade winds prevail along and north of the trough, while isolated thunderstorms are flaring along the trough east of the Big Island. These winds will be strong enough to support winds at Small Craft Advisory (SCA) strength for select waters as the trough drifts south and eventually dissipates on Tuesday, and in addition, a large north- northeast swell will produce seas above the 10 foot SCA threshold over most waters. Trade winds will decline on Wednesday and Thursday as the high to the north moves east and weakens, but winds may hold around SCA strength across the typically windy waters around Maui County and Big Island Wednesday. An approaching front will likely cause winds to decline and veer out of the southeast Thursday night into Saturday.
A large, long period north-northeast (010-030 deg) swell will continue to rapidly build through the evening and peak overnight and early Tuesday. The swell at NDBC buoy 51000 has been holding at 12 to 14 feet at 14 to 16 seconds during the past several hours, and an additional rise is possible into the evening. This swell will produce breaking waves at High Surf Warning levels across most north and east facing shores through Tuesday. Due to the direction of the large swell, exposed west facing shores of West Maui, western Molokai, and North Kohala on the Big Island will likely experience High Surf Advisory conditions. The north- northeast swell will gradually decline Tuesday night through Friday. In addition to this swell, a small pulse of overlapping west-northwest swell is expected through Wednesday.
Due to the direction of the large north-northeast (010-030) swell, some overwash will be possible along low-lying coastal roads and infrastructure in windward areas, especially in the Keaukaha area east of Hilo. Hazardous conditions and heavy surges are expected in north facing harbors, mainly in Hilo and Kahului, and a Marine Weather Statement remains in place to highlight this threat.
Very small wintertime surf will continue along south facing shores this week.
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Kauai East-Kauai North-Koolau Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Windward- Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kohala-Lanai Windward-Maui Leeward West-Molokai West.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
