The high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds blowing across the Hawaii region through Monday. Wind speeds will weaken from Tuesday through Thursday as a weak cold front passes north of the island chain. Trade winds slowly return from Friday into the weekend as the ridge builds back into the region.
Breezy easterly trades will persist into Saturday, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Expect MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in showers moving through, particularly through the overnight and early morning hours. This has resulted in AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration over windward areas of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail overnight into Saturday. A return of VFR conditions are anticipated statewide through the day Saturday as the trades begin to ease and the upper-level trough lifts away from the region.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence across leeward sides of all islands below 8000 feet due to the breezy trade winds. These conditions may improve tomorrow as winds begin to weaken.
A high pressure ridge remains to the north of the islands, driving trade winds to the region. The Small Craft Advisory is in place for the typical windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island through tonight. The ridge will weaken through the weekend as a front passes north of the islands. Winds in turn will weaken, and further ease Tuesday into the middle of the week.
An incoming northwesterly swell is currently filling in tonight, and will build and peak tomorrow. Surf heights could approach advisory levels during the peak, then is expected to gradually ease through the weekend. Another, slightly smaller northwest swell is expected early next week, maintaining elevated surf along north and west- facing shores. Looking ahead, guidance indicates yet another long- period northwest (320 deg) swell may arrive late next week, generated by a developing storm near Japan that is forecast to lift northeast near the Kuril Islands over the weekend.
Surf along south-facing shores will trend up over the weekend as a long-period south-southwest pulse arrives. Expect a peak later in the weekend and into Monday before lowering.
As trade winds weaken this weekend, expect surf along east- facing shores to trend downward.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island.
