Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

830 pm hst Tue Jun 2 2026

Synopsis

A plume of moisture will move over the state from southeast to northwest through Wednesday. Moderate to occasionally heavy showers will continue over the eastern end of the state into tonight, before focus shifts westward on Wednesday. Windward and mauka areas could see minor flooding, similar to what windward Big Island experienced today. A more typical (drier but not dry) trade wind pattern will return late Wednesday and continue into early next week.

Aviation

Issued at 825 PM HST Tue Jun 2 2026

A surface trough near the islands will continue enhance showers into tonight, shifting west to Kauai Wednesday morning. MVFR conditions are possible within these showers. Moderate to breezy trade winds are forecast to return Wednesday as the atmosphere begins to stabilize.

Airmet SIERRA for mountain obscuration is in effect for windward Kauai and all of Oahu, Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and the Big Island. These conditions should begin to wane through the overnight hours, with relief expected across all islands by late Wednesday morning.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet all areas of the state.

Marine

Issued at 335 PM HST Tue Jun 2 2026

Fresh to strong easterly trades will slightly strengthen through the second half of the week as the subtropical ridge strengthens north of the islands. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the typically windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Additional marine zones, may need to be added to the advisory in subsequent packages as the area of strong winds expands. Guidance suggests this pattern will persist through the weekend.

Surf along exposed south-facing shores will continue to gradually rise through tonight as a fresh long-period south-southwest swell continues to fills in. Offshore buoys continue to show a rising trend centered near the 17-second band. This swell will likely peak late tonight into Wednesday just below the warning level threshold of 15 feet faces. Thereafter, a gradual downward trend is expected through the latter half of the week. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for south facing shores through early Thursday morning. Surf may linger around advisory thresholds during the day Thursday but will likely drop below advisory thresholds by Friday.

Surf along north-facing shores will continue increasing through the second half of the week as a couple of out-of-season northerly swells arrive from a broad low pressure centered far north of the state near the Aleutian Islands. Surf heights will likely rise above the seasonal average by Wednesday, then remain elevated through Thursday and Friday before gradually easing over the weekend.

Surf along east-facing shores will gradually build through the week as strengthening trade winds generate increasing short- period wind waves. Surf should return to near seasonal levels by the end of the week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island South- Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro- Kahoolawe-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Leeward South-Niihau-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry- Waianae Coast.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

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