Key MESSAGE 1, Skies are gradually clearing for the southern half of the CWA where cirrus has lingered for a while now as the low pushes east across Florida. Winds are light to calm, resulting in great radiational cooling conditions, especially inland. Went well below NBM for low temps this morning as multiple spots are in the 40s to low 50s. High pressure will push off to the north and east tonight allowing for winds to become more SE-S at 5-10 kts today.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Will be paying attention to two features, on Wednesday and into Thursday, though minimal impacts are forecast from either as of this update. The first will be the previously mentioned low pressure system in the Gulf, which will continue to ride E and eventually NE'wards on Wed off the coast while deepening. As this occurs a few showers could overspread portions of the OBX Wed evening and overnight as this low passes by to the east so have kept slight chance PoPs here. This low is forecast to then move well to the north and east of the area by Thursday morning.
The second will be a stacked low which will be cutting across the Great Lakes and moving towards the Northeast with its associated cold front tracking across the Carolinas Wednesday night into Thursday morning before pushing offshore by late Thurs morning. This system will have decent dynamics to work with but current timing is working against it with limited instability due to nocturnal FROPA. Given trends in not only AI guidance but deterministic guidance where moisture may be somewhat limited with this frontal passage as well, have now kept thunder out of the forecast across inland areas and only kept thunder out across the waters offshore. Behind this front slightly below normal temps are then forecast on Thurs and Fri. Models are trying to show precip chances behind the front, but dry air aloft will make this difficult to materialize. Cut NBM PoPs to be no higher than 24% to keep slight chance wording in the forecast.
KEY MESSAGE 3, High pressure transits across the Eastern Seaboard behind the mid-week front and sets up offshore over the weekend. This will allow for S'rly flow to set up and for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA this weekend. This will lead to a warming and drying trend into early next week. Maxts back to the mid 80s SAT, low 90s inland SUN, which will be the story into early next week. These temps will bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.
12z Wednesday through Sunday VFR conditions expected to prevail through majority of the period as high pressure sits offshore. Light winds 5-10 kt out of the S to SE expected after sunrise with spotty diurnal cu fields. Uptick in low level moisture advection ahead of approaching front will allow for more favorable fog/stratus conditions overnight into Thurs AM, especially along and east of a line from OCW-EWN-OAJ where winds will be calmest and skies will be relatively clearer. Front still poses a risk for a few nocturnal showers and thunderstorms, although guidance trend has been shifting towards a drier solution.
Outlook: Pred VFR conditions will return Thu aft into the weekend.
Hne'rly winds veering this morning to an E to SE direction at about 5-10 kts with winds maintaining these speeds through today as the areas remains between a low pressure system passing by to the south and east and an approaching front coming in from the west. Seas will generally remain around 2-5 ft starting through this evening.
Outlook (Wednesday night into the weekend): The next front is set to cross regional waters early Thursday, bringing yet another round of showers, storms, and some strengthening to SW winds to our waters. Winds currently forecast to remain under SCA criteria for Thursday's front. However, as the front approaches, a deepening low pressure system works NEward to pass the area well offshore, outside of 100nm. This low will send some decent swell toward our coast which could build seas to 6ft+ locally when the Nerly windwaves from the front stack on top this swell out of the SE and E. High pressure sets up offshore after the midweek front/low, allowing for calming seas and relaxing winds with a mostly dry and warming forecast lasting into the weekend. Sat SW winds 10-20kt, Sun best boating day of the weekend with winds a little calmer.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
