Key MESSAGE 1, Latest surface analysis shows a large and strengthening low pressure system currently around 300 miles due east of Cape Hatteras as of this mornings update with showers wrapping around this low, mainly across the offshore waters. Overall, very little change in forecast thinking as a mid level shortwave is forecast to round the base of an upper level trough currently located along the Eastern Seaboard this morning. This mid level shortwave will act to rapidly deepen the aforementioned surface low as it slowly shifts north in the coming days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty N/NE winds and dangerous coastal and marine conditions to ENC.
There continues to be further clarity with this Nor'Easter's eventual track with much of the guidance slowly coming into agreement with the ECMWF solution of a slightly slower N'ward track and strong low stalling just south of Long Island this weekend. As a result, stronger winds are forecast to linger along the coast, especially north of Hatteras prolonging some coastal impacts. Regarding sensible weather, isolated showers may continue along the OBX today into tonight but otherwise the biggest concerns over the next 24 hours will be the ongoing wind and coastal impacts.
By far, the greatest impacts with this Nor'easter remain across the Outer Banks. Here, continued moderate to strong northeast to north winds remain in place, and potentially last into Saturday morning. Wind Advisories have ended across mainland Dare County, Ocracoke, and East Carteret, but remain in effect across the OBX from Hatteras Island north into this evening as gusts up to 45-50 mph won't be out of the question today as the Nor'Easter slowly pulls away from ENC. This may lead to some minor tree and power line damage, along with a risk of isolated power outages. Roads along the Outer Banks may be dangerous to traverse for high profile vehicles, especially along bridges. Nc-12 from the Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe remains closed due to ocean overwash.
The strong, and long duration, of the winds is also expected to support an increased risk of coastal impacts. Seas are already dangerous, reaching heights of about 13-19 ft at 13-14 seconds north of Cape Hatteras and 8-12 ft south. Seas have likely peaked this morning, but dangerous surf conditions in addition to a risk of beach erosion, wave runup, ocean overwash, and minor to moderate coastal flooding will continue into tonight as seas will be slow to lower. This will likely result in impacts to vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks north of Ocracoke Inlet where dune structures are compromised or non- existent. At this point the 6-8ft+ wave heights in the surf zone may last into this weekend. A High Surf Advisory Remains in effect through Saturday evening.
For soundside areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, and the nearby Neuse River, persistent north to northeasterly winds will continue to lead to minor coastal flooding into this morning before water levels begin to gradually recede. Some gauges in the southern Pamlico Sound have already approached or have reached minor flood levels and continue to do so this morning. With winds becoming more northerly this morning, this is forecast to allow the soundside coastal flooding risk to shift to portions of Ocracoke and Hatteras Villages.
Please continue to stay tuned for future updates as this is a complex and longer-duration Nor'easter, with subtle changes in strength and path of the low leading to increased, or decreased, coastal impacts.
key message 2, As the low shifts to New England and eventually weakens, sfc high and ridging aloft builds into ENC early next week. This will bring lighter winds, sunshine, and warmer weather back to the region. Of note, despite the warming weather, dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 50s into midweek next week, making for more comfortable conditions despite highs warming up into the mid to upper 80s. Slightly higher dewpoints into the 60s look to return closer to the end of next week.
06z Friday through Tuesday Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.
A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions are currently noted across ENC this morning with much of the MVFR ceilings noted along and east of Hwy 17 this morning. With drier air filtering into the region today expect VFR conditions to continue to gradually spread east resulting in all TAF sites seeing improving conditions this morning with VFR conditions then forecast across PGV/ISO/EWN/OAJ and adjacent areas by 10Z. The one area most likely to remain under MVFR ceilings will be the OBX as this area is closest to the Nor'Easter offshore and thus best moisture. As we get into Friday expect dry air to continue to work its way into ENC as the aforementioned Nor'Easter begins to pull away from ENC allowing CIGS to raise to VFR across all of ENC by this afternoon. Some iso showers are possible along the OBX as well but TAF sites should remain dry today. Significant reductions to VIS are not anticipated.
The gradient around the developing Nor'easter will continue to support moderate, and gusty, northerly winds today before winds finally ease tonight. Gusts of 20-25kt will be common for most TAF sites, with the exception being KMRH where gusts to 30kt will be common.
Outlook: CIGs are forecast to eventually rise to VFR levels everywhere across ENC by the weekend as drier air begins to wraparound the western periphery of the Nor'Easter and it continues to push further north away from ENC. This will keep dry conditions and partly cloudy skies across all of ENC into next week. As this low moves away winds are also forecast to ease across ENC as well and remain light into next week.
Not much change in the forecast as dangerous marine conditions continue to remain in place across ENC this morning as a Nor'Easter located off the coast has begun to deepen and push N'wards. Widespread gale force winds are noted across most of our waters this morning. Latest obs show NE winds 15-20 kt across the inland rivers and 20-30 kt gusting 35-40 kt across the sounds and coastal waters with seas 10-20 ft north of Ocracoke and 8-12 ft south. These dangerous boating conditions look to continue into today as the aforementioned Nor'Easter continues to rapidly deepen and slowly shift N'wards towards the Northeastern CONUS. Gale force N'rly winds do look to continue today across most of our waters, but will note with this system tracking north and pulling away from ENC, expect gale force conditions to wane across our inland waters and southern coastal waters by this evening with any ongoing gales being replaced by small craft advisories. So while we expect the morning to start out with 20-30 kt N'rly winds with gusts up towards 35-40 kts everywhere but the Pamlico/Pungo/Neuse/Bay Rivers where SCA conditions will be noted, winds will gradually ease down to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts from south to north today and tonight with the last of the gales likely ending by Sat morning. Seas of 10-20ft will be possible, especially for the waters from Cape Lookout north through Duck. Swell periods will remain around 10-13 seconds into this weekend as well.
Outlook: Based on the latest guidance, hazardous marine conditions are forecast to last into the weekend, especially for the coastal waters as seas remain elevated. However, winds should gradually lay down over the weekend as the low pulls away and a high builds in with more benign boating conditions forecast by early next week. These benign boating conditions remain in place into midweek next week.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for ncz094- 194-196. Beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz196-199-203>205. Wind advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203-205. Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT Saturday for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until 11 pm EDT this evening for ncz204- 205. Marine, gale warning until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz131-135-230- 231. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT this afternoon for amz136- 137. Gale warning until 8 am EDT Saturday for amz150-152-180-182. Gale warning until 2 am EDT Saturday for amz154-184. Gale warning until 8 am EDT this morning for amz156-158-188. Gale warning until 2 pm EDT this afternoon for amz186.
