A cold front will continue to push southward across ENC through sunrise today. An area of low pressure will then deepen along this front today before moving farther offshore Sunday, bringing elevated winds and seas along with rain chances. High pressure then builds back in by early next week.
Until 6 pm this evening As of 130 AM Saturday, Latest observations and analysis show a weak cold front extending across much of NC and currently located between New Bern and Greenville. This front will continue to sink southward through this morning, eventually settling south of the Crystal Coast. Simultaneously, a shortwave currently located over the Southern Plains will swing eastward through the day today along with an associated weak surface low currently located near the MS/GA border. This low will then strengthen along the stalled frontal boundary south of the ENC coastline today into tonight, with increasing low-to- mid level frontogenesis and WAA developing in advance of the approaching shortwave and associated area of low pressure. This increased forcing will gradually lead to light-to-moderate rain overspreading the region, with chances increasing from west to east across the forecast area after sunrise this morning. May see some light rain prior to sunrise, but remaining low-level dry air should hold steadier rain off until after sunrise. Guidance has continued to advertise lower rainfall totals, with amounts now generally expected in the 0.25-0.5" range (slightly higher amounts possible along the Crystal Coast and southern Outer Banks). Cooler northeast flow behind the cold front and expansive cloud cover/rainfall will keep highs on the cooler side today, with temperatures topping out in the low-to-mid 40s across the area (upper 40s to 50 along the Crystal Coast and Outer Banks).
6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday As of 2 AM Saturday, Strengthening low pressure will begin to pull away from shore tonight, with rain chances gradually tapering off from west to east this evening. With strengthening northeasterly winds on the backside of the low, wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected along the OBX early tonight before the low shifts farther offshore. High pressure building into the region will then bring clearing skies through the rest of the overnight hours, with lows dropping to near/just below freezing across ENC (lows near 40 OBX).
Sunday through Friday As of 2 AM Saturday,
Sunday/Monday, Light northerly flow behind the departing low will bring slightly cooler high temperatures as high pressure builds in late this weekend. High temperatures will be generally in the 50s through Monday.
Tuesday/Wednesday, High pressure shifts offshore early-to-mid next week. In response, winds swing to southwesterly, which will allow temps to climb well into the 60s Tuesday/Wednesday.
Thursday/Friday, A weak cold front may approach and stall out near ENC late weak as a shortwave trough swings quickly across the mid-Atlantic. Another frontal system may then swing through the region next weekend.
12z Saturday through Wednesday As of 630 AM Saturday,
Key Messages,
- IFR/MVFR conditions develop mid day through late tonight
Low pressure will track east along a front just off the coast today through tonight, bringing widespread -RA and sub-VFR conditions. A period of IFR, or lower, CIGs appears possible this afternoon and evening, most likely (HREF probs 70-90%) along the coast, including EWN and OAJ, but chances decrease farther west (HREF probs 40-60% at ISO and 20-30% at PGV). The low pulls away from the area after midnight with improving conditions late tonight as drier air filters into the area.
Outlook: Any lingering sub-VFR cigs should quickly clear early Sunday with HREF probs showing less than 20% chance after 12z. High pressure builds into the area Sunday, the slides offshore Monday with dry conditions and pred VFR expected through mid- week.
As of 2 AM Saturday,
Key Messages,
- Low pressure moving along the coast will bring another round of gusty winds and elevated seas beginning this afternoon and lingering through tomorrow
Latest analysis and observations depict a cold front slowly pushing southward through ENC. As of 2 AM Saturday, the cold front was situated just south of the Pamlico River and Hatteras Island, with northeasterly winds 10-15 knots and gusts to 20 kts to the north of the front. Ahead (south) of the front, winds remain westerly at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. This front will continue to sag southward through this morning before stalling south of the ENC coastline.
A low pressure system will then strengthen along this boundary later today before pushing farther offshore tonight/tomorrow. Ne winds will strengthen in response to the deepening low, peaking tonight at 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Occasional gusts to 35 kts will be possible across the Gulf Stream waters, mainly between Capes Lookout and Hatteras, for a brief period early tonight. Have opted to continue to hold off on issuing any Gale headlines as most guidance continues to suggest winds/gusts should largely remain sub-Gale Force; however, a small camp of guidance (including the Euro Ensemble) does depict greater potential for Gale conditions to develop early tonight. This will continue to be monitored as Gale headlines could be needed later today should the low and its associated winds trend stronger. Elsewhere, high-res guidance continues to suggest that conditions will remain sub-SCA across the northern sounds and Pamlico River, so have opted to continue to keep these waters out of the existing SCAs for now. The need for SCA headlines for these waters will continue to be evaluated.
High pressure then builds back in late Sunday as winds shift to northwesterly and conditions begin to gradually improve. Winds will then gradually shift to southwesterly Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure shifts offshore.
Seas should largely remain 3-5 ft today before quickly ramping up to 4-8 ft tonight. Seas then subside to 4-6 ft Sunday and 2-4 ft Monday.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 9 am EST Sunday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 am EST Sunday for amz137. Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 3 pm EST Sunday for amz150-156-158. Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 pm EST Sunday for amz152-154.
