Key MESSAGE 1, Anomalously warm low-level thicknesses and dewpoints beneath strong ridging aloft will continue to keep temperatures well above normal with potential record breaking heat continuing today, with heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg this afternoon for most of the area. Heat Advisory continues for most of the area, with highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A strong upper level trough will develop off the U.S. East Coast over the weekend, and this will help drive a strong cold front south through the Carolinas through tonight. This plus increased forcing along the cold front and other lingering boundaries has supported an increased risk of deep convection, and less limiting factors, compared to previous days. Pw's/td's inc further and with lowering hts aloft, instability will be very strong. 2.5kj/kg were evident on this morning's 12Z sounding and RAP is showing 4.5kJ/kg along the Crystal Coast ahead of the seabreeze, well above the avg max for first week of September according to the KMHX sounding climatology. If convective timing aligns with fropa/shortwave passage in the afternoon, a significant severe weather signal may be met as this aligns with stout deep layer shear, possibly in excess of 35-45kt. Machine learning severe probs for damaging wind continue to tick up for parts of ENC. In addition to the severe threat, will have to watch for potential flash flood threat, as PWs surge to 2.25" or higher, and with the expected numerous convection, very heavy rain rates are possible with deeper convection and lend to instances of flash flooding, especially with potential for training of storms. Flood Advisory has been issued for the severe warned storm that impacted Havelock and propagating Sward toward Bogue Banks with some pockets of 5in/hr rain rates.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Behind the front, temperatures and humidity will finally get knocked down closer to normal for early September, with more comfortable conditions lasting into early next week. Still some residual moisture lingering on Sunday and may see some sct showers, but overall trend is for drier esp as we begin the work week with pops less than 20% lasting through mid week. Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s is fcst and is where our temps should be for the first half of September.
18z Saturday through Thursday VFR conditions across the terminals and will stay this way outside of thunderstorms this afternoon. Sct to numerous showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening as cold front drops southward through the area. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any TSRA, continue prevailing MVFR line with tempo IFR groups to try to time the potential for strongest storms. Some storms have the potential to be strong to severe with winds in excess of 50kt and strongest storms having hail as well. Precip will taper off from west to east late evening, with potential for IFR fog and low stratus to develop early Sun morning.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).
Outlook (Sun through Wed): Behind the front, a northeasterly wind shift will occur, with northeasterly flow continuing into early next week. This could lead to periods of sub-VFR ceilings, esp Sunday.
Latest obs show W-NW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Cold front currently sinking through the NC/VA border will slowly sink southward through the waters into tonight. Winds will grad veer through the day becoming N/NE behind the front, remaining SW ahead of it with seas 2-4 ft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening. Some could be strong to severe, with freq lightning, strong wind gusts, and hail.
Outlook (Sun through Wed): Moderate to gusty NE winds 15-25 kt will develop Sunday and continue into Monday, with seas building to 4-8 ft, highest across the outer waters. Sca conditions expected. Winds and seas will begin to ease Tuesday and Wed as high pressure builds in.
Nc, heat advisory until 6 pm EDT this evening for ncz044-079>081- 090>092-094-193>196-198-199. Marine, small craft advisory from 8 pm Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for amz150. Small craft advisory from 8 pm Sunday to noon EDT Tuesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 7 am Monday to 2 pm EDT Tuesday for amz156-158.
