Key MESSAGE 1, Latest surface analysis shows a surface trough located along the OBX which has been responsible for the isolated to widely scattered showers this morning across ENC. In addition to this, winds behind the surface trough are east to southeast while ahead of the trough, winds remain N'rly. To the west a weak cold front approaches, while further to the south a low pressure system has developed off the coast of SC and is forecast to track northeastwards today bringing widespread rain and a few rumbles of thunder to the area.
Have made only minor tweaks to the forecast as guidance remains in good agreement. Upper level trough over the Ohio River Valley will become neutrally and eventually negatively tilted tonight into tomorrow as it pushes east across the Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, southern and northern stream jet streams phase allowing for low pressure at the surface off the Southeast Coast to deepen as it tracks northeastwards just offshore the Carolinas. Previously mentioned surface trough will also dissipate this morning with the approach of the low. This is forecast to bring widespread rainfall to ENC starting later this morning. Heaviest rainfall amounts are still forecast to be along the coast and OBX with amounts lowering the further inland you go. With this in mind, any rain amounts over 1" over the next 24 hours will primarily be relegated to east of Hwy 17 today.
Still anticipating most if not all of the thunderstorm activity associated with this low to remain either along the coast or offshore today. With northerly flow keeping profiles more stable over land, this should keep rainfall rates low enough to preclude any flash flooding threat, especially when paired with the drought conditions in place. Temperatures today only get into the mid 50s to low 60s with lows getting into the 40s inland and 50s along the OBX. After today, we do see a gradual warming trend as high pressure settles into the area and N'rly winds switch to a S'rly direction allowing for WAA to overspread enc.
KEY MESSAGE 2, We continue to monitor Thursday next week for the potential for showers and strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. The upper level pattern has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours with a strong positively tilted trough in the Plains taking on a more negative tilt as it tracks over the Eastern Seaboard on Thurs. At the surface, a wave of low pressure will develop along an approaching cold front and deepen as it tracks NE'wards into the Northeastern CONUS while the aforementioned cold front tracks across the region. Efi and machine learning severe probs are highest in the Mid-Atlantic and SE US Thursday. In addition to this, latest guidance suggests this frontal passage occurs Thurs afternoon and evening. Given the timing, sufficient instability and strong shear should be in place which would bring the potential for a few isolated stronger thunderstorms to develop. For now it is too far out to determine coverage and severity of storms with this frontal passage but we will continue to closely monitor the situation and give updates as more information becomes available.
12z Saturday through Wednesday Flight conditions will gradually deteriorate over the next several hours as a low pressure system takes shape offshore and brings continuous rainfall to ENC. Cigs and VIS are forecast to drop to IFR by 13-15Z. Ifr conditions are expected to continue through most of today with periods of moderate rainfall likely. Thunderstorms are possible but will be most likely near the coast (10-20% chance) this morning. Flight conditions should improve to MVFR around 00Z with isolated to widely scattered showers continuing through this evening, gradually tapering off from west to east and moving offshore by midnight. Thereafter, VFR flight conditions with SKC and light NE winds will finish out the period.
Outlook: Predominantly VFR flight conditions should persist into early next week.
A surface trough has developed along the coast this morning with 10-20 kt S-SE winds and a few gusts to 25 kts noted to the east of the trough. A N'rly wind at 5-10 kts is noted to the west of the trough. This trough is forecast to dissipate this morning as a deepening low currently located offshore SC tracks NE'wards and makes it closest point of approach to ENC later today. This will not only bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area today, but this will also allow winds to become N'rly across all waters and increase to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts across most of the waters bringing widespread SCA conditions to our waters outside of the inland rivers where slightly lighter conditions will persist. A few gusts to 35 kts will be possible across our offshore waters given the proximity to the coastal low, but these gusts appear infrequent enough to preclude a gale mention. Seas will also build from 3-5 ft this morning to 4-8 ft this evening in response to the elevated winds. This low then quickly pushes off to the north and east tonight into Sunday allowing winds to back to a NW'rly direction and lower to 10-15 kts by Sun with gusts decreasing to 15-20 kts. Seas will continue to remain elevated across our waters into Sunday as well, but should lower below 6 ft by Sun evening. As a result, this will end all SCA's across our waters by Sun evening.
Outlook: High pressure settling to our east will bring south/southwest winds at 5-15 kts from Sunday night into mid week next week. Next cold front moves through late week, with increasing winds and seas expected both ahead and behind it.
Nc, beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz203-205. Marine, small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm EDT this evening for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 2 am EDT Sunday for amz135-156-158. Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 am EDT Sunday for amz150. Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 pm EDT Sunday for amz152-154.
