A cold front will move through ENC tonight. High pressure then rebuilds offshore late this week with above normal temperatures returning. A frontal system will bring the next chance of rain this weekend, with cooler and drier conditions expected early next week. Another system brings a small chance for rain by mid week next week.
Through tonight As of 2 PM Wed, Warm conditions with partly to mostly sunny skies have developed this afternoon ahead of a dry cold front. Temps are now into the low to mid 70s across the southern half of the forecast area, and upper 60s to low 70s farther north where clouds remain. The cold front will move through the forecast area from north to south late this afternoon, bringing both a wind shift to the north and more widespread low cloud cover. Cloudy skies continue overnight, but modest CAA will help push temps down into the mid to upper 40s inland, and lower 50s along the coast.
Thursday As of 2 PM Wed, Weak cold air damming will be in place tomorrow with high pressure ridging down the lee of the Appalachians and light northerly flow at the surface. Clouds will remain for most of the morning, but will break from south to north through the afternoon. As a result, there will be a large temperature range across the forecast area with areas along the northern coastal plain remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s with cloud cover most of the day. Across southern NC, clouds will likely break by late morning and allow for afternoon heating with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s. And finally, the middle area is most uncertain, and highs here will depend on how much Sun is seen.
Thursday night through Wednesday As of 2 PM Wed, Mainly mild conditions expected with above climo temps through mid next week. Chances for early Saturday through late Saturday night, and then again by mid next week.
Fri through Sat, Next frontal system moves in bringing light rain chances. For now, Friday looks to remain dry with moisture along a warm front remaining just north of the forecast area. Kept pops in the chc range for now Saturday and Saturday night. Rain amts do not appear impressive, but perhaps some areas could see a wetting rain. Will keep a slight chance of thunder Saturday afternoon with "strong" heating expected and temps reaching the upper 70s to around 80.
Sun through Wed, High pressure is then forecast to build in behind the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing. Zonal flow will be in place, so temps should be around avg during this period, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows in the 40s.
18z Wednesday through Monday As of 1230 PM Wed,
Key Messages
- Low stratus expected to bring sub-VFR ceilings tonight behind the passage of a cold front
VFR conditions prevail across ENC as of early Wednesday afternoon, with some mid-level clouds with bases of 7-10 kft working their way eastward across the area. A few light showers are noted across the northern tier of the of the forecast area. These will remain north of TAF sites but may bring brief periods of light showers to the northern Outer Banks. Conditions will continue to dry out as skies clear through the afternoon. High clouds will build back in this evening as a cold front pushes southward through the region. Winds will shift from generally westerly to northerly behind the front, generally remaining 10 kts or less. Low stratus is expected to build in behind this front tonight from northeast to southwest, bringing a period of sub- VFR ceilings to much of ENC. Guidance still differs on potential for low stratus to reach as far southwest as OAJ, but guidance has trended more pessimistic since earlier this morning. Thus, have opted for prevailing MVFR groups for all TAF sites as of this cycle. Where low stratus sets in, guidance suggests ceilings will drop further to IFR (and potentially LIFR) conditions, but with some uncertainty remaining amongst guidance regarding expanse and timing of low stratus, have opted to only include a FEW009 group at this time. Potential for IFR/LIFR ceilings will be monitored for future TAF cycles. There is some uncertainty regarding how quickly low stratus will mix out tomorrow morning, but current guidance suggests conditions will improve to VFR for TAF sites during the late morning hours, with sub-VFR ceilings lingering across the NOBX.
Outlook: High pressure remains in place into Friday. Should winds ease enough, could see some VIS concerns with patchy early morning fog as well. Yet another chance for Sub-VFR conditions over the weekend when a series of approaching, and eventually passing, fronts increase rain chances and sky cover.
As of 2 PM Wed,
Key Messages,
- Marginal Small Craft conditions to develop early this evening through around midnight across most of the coastal waters due to northerly winds of 20-25 kts with gusts 25-30 kts
Ahead of a cold front this afternoon winds are WSW at 10-20 kts. The front will move through the area from north to south starting late this afternoon, and winds will surge to 20-25 kts out of the north with gusts 25-30 kts for a several hour period through around midnight. Winds then subside overnight and will be N 10-15 kts tomorrow. Seas will be 2-4 ft, but will briefly come up to 3-5 for a few hours overnight.
Outlook: Winds become light and variable for most of Friday, but then quickly strengthen out of the SW Friday night. Small Craft conditions are likely to develop over at least the coastal waters early Saturday through Sunday as a frontal system passes by the Carolinas. Improving conditions expected Sunday night through Monday.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for amz150-152. Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 am EST Thursday for amz154-156.
