Key MESSAGE 1, Dry conditions will persist today but chances for showers and thunderstorms re-enter the forecast tomorrow afternoon ahead of a backdoor cold front. Greatest PoPs are concentrated mainly south of Kinston/New Bern/Cape Hatteras, and with plenty of instability, thunderstorms will likely form quickly. Areas of enhanced lift from FROPA and sea breeze interactions could generate a strong to severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging wind gusts, but the overall severe threat is more muted given that the best shear will be displaced to the north. All precip should be offshore shortly after sunset.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Cooler and drier air will take over behind the front with lows dipping to the mid 50s inland/low 60s OBX Saturday night. Below climo highs on Sunday will be in the upper-70s inland/upper- 60s OBX. Temps will start to rebound on Monday with inland highs approaching 80 as high pressure moves offshore and SW flow resumes.
KEY MESSAGE 3, The next cold front will cross the area late Monday/early Tuesday and bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Pops will peak Monday night and decrease through Tuesday with high pressure bringing dry conditions back by mid-week.
18z Friday through Wednesday VFR conditions are expected for the rest of today with light and variable winds and scattered diurnal cu. Cloud cover will increase tonight and winds will become predominantly SWerly. Winds will start to veer to the N tomorrow as a backdoor cold front approaches the area. This front, and its interaction with the afternoon sea breeze, will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area (greatest chances for EWN and OAJ).
Outlook: The cold front will cross the area tomorrow night and generate a NEerly surge in its wake (gusts to 15-20 kt inland, 20-25 kt along the OBX). The next chance of showers will be on Monday ahead of another cold front.
Variable winds this afternoon will become SWerly tonight and increase to 15-20 kt. A backdoor cold front will move across the area tomorrow, quickly veering the winds to the NE. This NE surge will increase winds to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Saturday evening through early Sunday. Seas will respond by building to 5-8 ft Saturday night. Scas have been issued for all zones except for the inland rivers starting tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook: NE winds will relax on Sunday, but 6+ ft seas may linger into early Monday for the central waters.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 2 pm Saturday to 2 am EDT Sunday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory from 2 pm Saturday to 8 am EDT Sunday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 2 pm Saturday to 8 pm EDT Sunday for amz150. Small craft advisory from 2 pm Saturday to 8 am EDT Monday for amz152. Small craft advisory from 5 pm Saturday to 8 am EDT Monday for amz154. Small craft advisory from 6 pm Saturday to 10 am EDT Sunday for amz156-158.
