Key MESSAGE 1, Latest surface analysis shows a ridge of high pressure centered over North Carolina this afternoon with light to calm winds and ongoing CAA behind a stalling frontal boundary well to the south. This has brought fair weather to ENC today with temps in the 60s to near 70 this afternoon. Some high cirrus is also noted, mainly south of Hwy 264 as debris clouds from a low pressure system noted in the Gulf rides east along the aforementioned front. Skies are forecast to clear overnight as the low pushes east across Florida with winds becoming calm allowing for decent radiational cooling. High pressure will push off to the north and east tonight as well allowing for winds to become more SE-S at 5 kts or less by Wed morning. Lows tonight get into the upper 40s to mid 50s inland and mid 50s to low 60s along the OBX.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Will be paying attention to two features, on Wednesday and into Thursday, though minimal impacts are forecast from either as of this update. The first will be the previously mentioned low pressure system in the Gulf, which will continue to ride E and eventually NE'wards on Wed off the coast while deepening. As this occurs a few showers could overspread portions of the OBX Wed evening and overnight as this low passes by to the east so have included slight chance PoPs here. This low is forecast to then move well to the north and east of the area by Thursday morning.
The second will be a stacked low which will be cutting across the Great Lakes and moving towards the Northeast with its associated cold front tracking across the Carolinas Wednesday night into Thursday morning before pushing offshore by late Thurs morning. This system will have decent dynamics to work with but current timing is working against it with limited instability due to nocturnal FROPA. Given trends in not only AI guidance but deterministic guidance where moisture may be somewhat limited with this frontal passage as well, have now kept thunder out of the forecast across inland areas and only kept thunder out across the waters offshore. Behind this front slightly below normal temps are then forecast on Thurs and Fri.
KEY MESSAGE 3, High pressure transits across the Eastern Seaboard behind the mid-week front and sets up offshore over the weekend. This will allow for S'rly flow to set up and for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA this weekend. This will lead to a warming and drying trend into early next week. Maxts back to the mid 80s SAT, low 90s inland SUN, which will be the story into early next week. These temps will bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.
18z Tuesday through Sunday Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct to bkn high clouds and spotty cu expected through this evening. Fog and stratus threat looks low overnight (probs less than 10%).
Outlook: Medium to high confidence with periods of of sub-VFR conditions Wed night into early Thu with the next system, which will bring sct showers and thunderstorms. Pred VFR conditions will return Thu into the weekend.
High pressure continues to gradually push offshore this afternoon allowing for NE'rly winds to ease with latest obs show 5-15 kt winds with gusts up around 20-25 kts across the offshore waters while seas persist around 3-5 ft across the near shore coastal waters with 4-6 ft seas noted across the outer coastal waters past 20 NM. Ne'rly winds will veer tonight to an E to SE direction tonight at about 5-10 kts with winds maintaining these speeds through Wednesday as the areas remains between a low pressure system passing by to the south and east and an approaching front coming in from the west. Seas will generally remain around 3-5 ft starting from tonight on into Wednesday evening.
Outlook (Wednesday night into the weekend): The next front is set to cross regional waters early Thursday, bringing yet another round of showers, storms, and some strengthening to SW winds to our waters. Winds currently forecast to remain under SCA criteria for Thursday's front. However, as the front approaches, a deepening low pressure system works NEward to pass the area well offshore, outside of 100nm. This low will send some decent swell toward our coast which could build seas to 6ft+ locally when the Nerly windwaves from the front stack on top this swell out of the SE and E. High pressure sets up offshore after the midweek front/low, allowing for calming seas and relaxing winds with a mostly dry and warming forecast lasting into the weekend. Sat SW winds 10-20kt, Sun best boating day of the weekend with winds a little calmer.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
