Key MESSAGE 1, Another mid-level shortwave will lift northeastward through the SE and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. With a seabreeze pinned east of Hwy 17, these two features will act in tandem to produce sct thunderstorms Sun afternoon into the evening. Some of these storms may be strong to marginally svr, as 2,600+ J/KG of CAPE and 25-30+ kt of shear will be in place. Have inc pops near the coast to 40-60%, while interior zones are in the 10-20% range. Best chance of svr storms will be east of Hwy 17 stretching from around Richlands to New Bern to Englehard. With recent heavy rains, a localized flood threat may materialize, as PW's are still in the 90th or higher percentile range.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Similar setup for Mon, as area is on east side of broad level troughing with yet more shortwave energy swinging through and front hung up near the coast interacting with afternoon seabreeze. Efi for CAPE/Shear is around the 80th percentile, suggesting a severe risk if storms can develop and organize. Best chances again for eastern zonesw.
KEY MESSAGE 3, An anomalously strong upper level trough is forecast to translate east and finally move offshore by Tue but then dampen with return of sswrly flow and moisture off the GOM. This will bring more unsettled wx back to ENC in the form of shbowers and storms with pops back into the 40-60% range, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. Temps will be back to slightly above climo, esp for the overnight periods as warm/humid airmass will be in place.
18z Saturday through Thursday Forecast confidence is low to moderate with respect to IFR/LIFR fg or low stratus. Have sided with persistence again and a more pessimistic fcst than much of the guidance, which has low chances of IFR/LIFR. With no real change in airmass, low level moisture will remain trapped, and with calm winds/mo skc skies tonight, fog and low stratus should develop again for the coastal plain counties. Have several hours of low cigs and fg for ISO and PGV, while KEWN and KOAJ have a somewhat lesser chance of these conditions developing.
Any fog or low stratus will dissipate in the morning, leading to VFR conditions again. Some showers and storms possible in the afternoon, esp OAJ and EWN and may need to mention this threat in future updates.
Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Mainly VFR, though patchy fog/low stratus may develop each night. More unsettled weather returns for Wed into late week, with tempo reductions in cigs and vsby.
Ocnl tsra will ride up over the Gulf Stream tonight, producing locally strong winds and frequent lightning. Otherwise, swrly winds remain in the 5-15 kt range with seas of 2-4 ft through Sunday.
Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Cont wrly to swrly winds expected through next week, but speeds will cont in the 5-15 kt range through next week with seas no higher than 2-3 ft.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
