Key MESSAGE 1, As of early this morning, a deepening Nor'easter will continue to lift along the Mid-Atlantic and NE coast tonight. Eventually, the system will weaken and lift NE away from the U.S. East Coast early next week.
The dry airmass should keep most of ENC dry today. The one exception, though, is along the NRN OBX. There, increasing CAA on the western periphery of the Nor'easter should lead to steep low- level lapse rates along the length of the Chesapeake Bay. This plus a favorable trajectory down the length of the Bay should support a band of light showers extending southeast from eastern VA into NE NC, though little on radar at this time.
Despite winds and seas gradually decreasing today, coastal impacts will continue to plague portions of the OBX. Buoys currently show wave heights of 10-13ft at 12-13 seconds, and this should continue to lead to wave runup and ocean overwash impacts along vulnerable stretches of the OBX, with a continued focus on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Portions of NC-12 remain closed on both Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Adding to the impact of the wave runup and overwash is the already elevated astronomical tides ongoing through the weekend. Extended the CF Warnings/Advisory and the High Surf Advisory. In addition, as the Nor'easter pulls away from the area, a more moderate westerly wind is expected to develop by Sunday, and this may lead to a risk of very minor coastal flooding around Roanoke Island.
KEY MESSAGE 2, By mid to late next week, a notable upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Southeastern U.S. This combined with rising low-level thicknesses in southerly flow should support warming temperatures, including the potential for a period of above normal highs once again. Moisture is forecast to be slower to return, and this should support mostly dry conditions for much of the upcoming week.
18z Saturday through Thursday Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Afternoon heating plus residual low-level moisture may allow an area of SCT to BKN VFR-level cumulus (4-6k ft) to develop during this afternoon. East of the TAF sites, an area of MVFR CIGs may linger along the OUter Banks along with a band of light rain. Deep mixing plus modest northerly winds aloft should lead to a period of gusty NW winds, with gusts as high as 15-25 kt.
Outlook: Winds will continue to gradually decrease over the remainder of the weekend as the Nor'easter pulls slowly away from the area and weakens. A dry airmass in the wake of that system should allow VFR conditions to prevail into at least the first half of next week.
Deepening Nor'easter continues to push towards the Mid-Atlantic and NE coast this afternoon. Latest obs show N-NW winds 15-25 kt gusting 20-30 kt with seas 10-15 ft north of Ocracoke and 5-10 ft south. Dropped Gales based on obs, while SCAs continue for the coastal waters and sounds. A more substantial laying down of the winds is expected by tonight or Sunday as the Nor'easter finally lifts further away from the local area. For the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, dangerous seas of 10-15 ft will finally begin to lay down to 10ft, or less overnight. South of Cape Hatteras, the most dangerous seas are expected for the outer coastal waters, while the waters closer to shore will have elevated seas, but not as high as further out. W-NW winds 10-20 kt Sun with seas slowly subsiding with the offshore flow.
Outlook: Boating conditions are expected to substantially improve as we move into next week. Northerly flow is forecast to shift to southerly flow by the middle of the week.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Coastal flood advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until midnight EDT tonight for ncz204- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for amz131-135-156- 158-230-231. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Sunday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 5 pm EDT Sunday for amz152-154.
