Key MESSAGE 1, Areas of sea fog have returned to portions of the NC coast, with the most widespread areas along the Crystal Coast and south along Onslow county. Expect fog to continue to expand inland the rest of the early morning hours, and potentially return to areas along the Outer Banks. Visibilities may drop enough to warrant Dense Fog Advisories.
A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight, and fog could extend inland from the coast at times.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some afternoons, especially tomorrow through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures.
Latest forecast trends show a weak front moving into the Carolinas late this weekend and into early next week, bringing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, though it looks like well above normal temps will continue.
06z Thursday through Monday There is a fair mix of flight categories across ENC this evening ranging from VFR to LIFR. Though, the sub-VFR conditions are primarily confined to portions of the Crystal Coast and OBX as of this update as a mix of seafog and low clouds impact the area. This has resulted in a rather complex forecast for tonight. But, in general expect terminals along and east of Hwy 17 (OAJ/EWN) and any airfields along the OBX to see visibilities lower over the next few hours with patchy/areas of IFR/LIFR vis/ceilings noted across these terminals starting between 8-10Z. Will note, while OAJ currently shows 1/2 SM visibility at the ASOS station, given local webcams around the area this appears to be more ground fog and non impactful to operations. Either way given the lower vis here have a tempo group for IFR vis through 08Z before setting up prevailing IFR conditions at this terminal. Further inland west of Hwy 17 and across inland terminals of ISO/PGV the threat for fog appears to be a bit lower with more of a threat for low ceilings. Currently have MVFR to IFR ceilings overspreading these terminals between 10-12Z. These sub VFR conditions across ENC will be slow to improve as light and variable to calm winds tonight hinder mixing at least through about midmorning. Between about 15-17Z expect SW'rly winds to increase to 5-15 kts allowing for both ceilings and vis to lift resulting in widespread VFR conditions across all of ENC. As we get into tonight, once again expect seafog to develop along the coast and OBX and then spread inland bringing an elevated threat for sub VFR vis/ceilings mainly along and east of Hwy 17 after 00Z Fri.
Outlook: A return to VFR conditions is expected on Fri, though once again Fri night do expect a threat for patchy to widespread fog along the coast with lower ceilings inland as the environment will change little across ENC and remain favorable for seafog to advect inland along the coast. May see some improving conditions from SUn and beyond as winds become elevated limiting any fog threat but, with increasing chances for showers lowers ceilings may prevail from SUn on into early next week.
Sea FOG: Areas of sea fog have returned to portions of the NC coast, with the most widespread areas along the Crystal Coast and south towards Onslow Bay. Expect fog to continue to expand the rest of the early morning hours, potentially returning to areas along and off the Outer Banks. Visibilities may drop enough to warrant Dense Fog Advisories.
A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight.
WINDS/SEAS: Pleasant boating conditions are expected (outside of fog) for the next couple of days with high pressure offshore. Winds will be SSW/SW at 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft.
Outlook: Good boating conditions continue into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine area.
Nc, none. Marine, dense fog advisory until 8 am EST this morning for amz158.
