A quick moving front moves through today. A secondary backdoor cold front moves through early Thursday. High pressure then rebuilds offshore late this week with above normal temperatures returning. A frontal system will bring the next chance of rain this weekend, with cooler and drier conditions expected early next week. Another system brings a small chance for rain by mid week next week.
Today As of 2 AM Wed, Pre-midnight low was observed for most areas, before inc cirrus and an inc in low level srly flow ensued, with temps rising through the 40s and 50s towards daybreak.
An area of light isentropically driven rain is still fcst to sweep ewrd through the Hwy 64 corridor, possibly as far south as the Hwy 264 corridor, through this morning. Otherwise, mo cloudy skies will become partly cloudy through the afternoon hours today, allowing for temps to warm into the 70s swrn zones to 60s nern zones as broad but light swrly flow will be in place.
Tonight As of 2 AM Wed, Reinforcing backdoor front will sweep through ENC late today and through this evening. A bank of stratus will sweep in behind the front later tonight as frontal inversion sets up. The clouds and nnerly breezes will keep temps mild overnight, with readings in the 40s expected.
Thursday through Tuesday As of 3 AM Wed, Mainly mild conditions expected with above climo temps through mid next week. Chances for rain Fri night into Sat, and then again by mid next week.
Thursday, Aforementioned frontal inversion will linger into the day, keeping weak in-situ CAD setup in place with lingering stratus. Nam is best at capturing this regime, and have inc cloud cover and lowered temps as a result. Later shifts have room to go a bit cooler, esp if the ovc conditions linger through much of the afternoon. For now, highs around 60 at best for most locales with light nerly flow continuing.
Fri through Sat, Next frontal system moves in bringing light rain chances. Kept pops in the chc range for now, but latest 19/00Z ECM cont to be wettest and may have to inc pops eventually. Rain amts do not appear impressive, and little to no instability present, so kept thunder mention over the warmer Gulf waters where some instability resides.
Sun through Tue, High pressure is then forecast to build in behind the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing. Zonal flow will be in place, so temps should be around avg during this period, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
12z Wednesday through Sunday As of 640 AM Wed,
Key Messages
- LLWS this morning across the Coastal Plain
- SHRA possible (20-40% chance) this morning mainly along and north of Hwy 264
Latest radar imagery shows light shower activity north of Hwy 70 this morning and this is forecast to continue over the next few hours. The greatest potential to see shower activity will be to the north of Hwy 70. As a result, did keep VCSH in the TAFs for PGV this morning through about 14Z. Afterwards we quickly dry out across ENC from west to east with dry conditions then forecast through tonight. Regardless, VFR conditions will persist across all of ENC through this evening as ceilings remain above 5-6 kft this morning with clearing skies forecast this evening. Llws will remain a threat across PGV/ISO over the next 1-2 hours as well, with strong SW'rly flow noted aloft this morning across the Coastal Plain. With weaker winds aloft closer to the coast will leave a mention of LLWS out of the OAJ/EWN TAFs. Cold front sweeps S'wards across the area this afternoon shifting SW'rly winds to a N'rly direction from N to S. Behind the front guidance continues to suggest low stratus develops and tracks SW'wards through the night first impacting the NOBX and then the TAF terminals after 06Z tonight. For now lowered ceilings to MVFR across all TAF sites tonight between 08-12Z with a FEW deck at IFR ceiling heights at PGV/ISO. Will have to monitor trends to see if the forecast becomes more optimistic or pessimistic but overall expecting sub-VFR conditions towards the end of the forecast period.
Outlook: With high pressure wedging itself into the Mid- Atlantic on Thurs could see this low stratus hang around for much of the day. But, there is some uncertainty with how quickly these low clouds erode, so will have to keep an eye on forecast trends. High pressure remains in place into Friday. Should winds ease enough, could see some VIS concerns with patchy early morning fog as well. Yet another chance for Sub-VFR conditions over the weekend when a series of approaching, and eventually passing, fronts increase rain chances and sky cover.
As of 2 AM Wed, Swrly flow early this morning in the 5-15 kt range (10-20 kt over the Gulf Stream). Cool front sweeps through late today into this evening, with winds turning nnerly generally 10-20 kt, with some ocnl gusts to 25 kt possible, but not widespread enough to warrant any sca headlines attm. Winds turn swrly on Fri night into early Sat ahead of next cold front. Some sca winds possible on the well mixed Gulf waters during this time, with remaining waters/sounds/rivers remaining well below criteria. Seas may briefly get to 6+ ft south of around C Hatteras this weekend with the swrly wind surge.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
