Key MESSAGE 1, Strong high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will result in a period of continued large waves across the OBX. The high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to additional minor coastal flooding impacts.
For Hatteras Island, seas offshore are in the 6-8 foot range, slowly subsiding through the coming week, but long period swells will continue to cause issues for vulnerable areas. For ocean- side: high tide is between 0800-0830 PM EDT today. Soundside high tides lag by up to 3 hours behind the oceanside tides. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe.
Coastal flooding will be likely well into this week despite the diminishing of winds, with "sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of ENC around times of high tide, then slowly improve as the King Tides ease later in the week and into the weekend. Coastal flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle on Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Pleasantly cooler and drier air mass will remain with us through early this week, with near climo highs, to slightly below avg lows. Lows getting well down into the 40s with some 30s again possible when the high pressure ridges into ENC allowing for excellent rad cooling under clear skies, calm winds, and low TD's. Low end fog threat exists with the aforementioned conditions, with best chances east of hwy 17. Kept fog out of the forecast for now given the low probs, but may be added with later updates. Hts/thicknesses begin to build by mid week, with temps climbing back above climo with highs in the mid 70s, then upper 70s by Thursday into the weekend. Lows will remain closer to climo (50s) as dry airmass remains with a large diurnal temp range.
18z Monday through Saturday VFR SKC through the TAF pd. Winds are much lighter today with high pres building in, and speeds in the 5-10 kt range, then becoming calm tonight with high pres building in. There is a low end threat of fog tonight and tomorrow morning, primarily for areas closer to the coast (KEWN, KMRH, KOAJ). Introduced VIS drops to 5sm with this TAF issuance, electing not to go lower with the lesser confidence at this time.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): Generally, expect VFR conditions to continue through the week with quasi-stationary high pres over the region. However, coastal sections could see ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic.
High pres has begun to move into ENC, and winds are responding by diminishing. Elevated seas will cont today in the 6-8 ft range, and a SCA remains in effect for coastal waters. There is some uncertainty with the end time of the SCA, in a best case scenario we are below 6 ft Tuesday night. However, guidance has been underdone on wave heights as of late, so elected to keep the SCA end time at Thursday for now.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): Longer period swells are likely slow to subside this week with a tightened pres gradient remaining to the south of ENC, and SCA headlines cont for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet through Thursday morning.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 2 pm EDT Thursday for ncz080-094- 194>196-199-203>205. Beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until midnight EDT tonight for amz150. Small craft advisory until noon EDT Thursday for amz152-154- 156-158.
