Key MESSAGE 1, The upper level ridge will amplify over the Mid- Atlantic today. With strong deep layer southwest flow over ENC, low- level thicknesses will rise to heights that are more summer-like. Record-breaking temperatures around 90 degrees are forecast for inland zones while areas along the water will be in the 70s (see Climate section). Southwest winds could gust to 20-30 mph today with the strongest gusts expected later in the day due to a combination of peak mixing and the tightening gradient as a cold front approaches from the west.
KEY MESSAGE 2, As a potent upper level shortwave moves east through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, a strong cold front will track across ENC and bring gusty winds, widespread rain, and a few thunderstorms. Given that the FROPA is expected to reach the area ahead of peak heating, instability will be limited. Srh and deep layer shear, on the other hand, will be plentiful. While this high shear/low CAPE environment is not a slam dunk for severe storms, there's still a non-zero risk of a few stronger gusts and a brief, weak tornado. The most likely scenario is widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms during the day on Thursday. Thursday night/Friday morning lows will drop to the low/mid 30s inland and low 40s along the coast.
KEY MESSAGE 3, We'll still be warmer than average behind Thursday's front, but we'll feel a notable drop in temperatures. Friday will reach the low/mid 60s and we'll rebound to the mid 60s to mid 70s on Sunday and Monday. A deep upper level trough will dig across the CONUS late this weekend and reach the East Coast by early next week. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the area late Monday/early Tuesday. This system will bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday through Monday night with a slightly stronger signal for severe thunderstorms than Thursday's front. A significantly cooler airmass will build in behind this front with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday forecast to be in the 40s and 50s.
07z Wednesday through Sunday Pred VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites, however patchy sea fog will sub-VFR conditions to terminals along the coast, especially this morning. Sw winds will become gusty late this morning and afternoon after the inversion breaks with gusts to around 20-25 kt expected. Moderate SW winds around 10-15 kt continue tonight with higher gusts possible at times. The low level jet increases tonight as a frontal system approaches from the west and some guidance suggests LLWS may become a concern, however we may remain mixed enough to minimize the threat.
Outlook, Sub-VFR expected Thursday with scattered to numerous showers, isolated storms and gusty winds. Pred VFR to return Fri into the weekend.
Sea Fog: Sea fog is diminishing across the Crystal Coast but becoming more dense across the Outer Banks and Pamlico Sound this morning. Therefore, a Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for these zones and is in effect until 2 PM today. Where sea fog develops, visibilities could be reduced to less than 1 NM at times.
Light southerly winds of 5-10 kt and 2-4 ft seas are expected to continue into early this afternoon. Conditions will then deteriorate ahead of an approaching cold front that will pass on Thursday. Tonight, southwesterly winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Seas will build to 4-6 ft north of Cape Hatteras and 4-7 ft to the south. Early tomorrow afternoon, a cold front will move across the area and veer the winds to the north-northwest. The post- frontal north-northwesterly winds will surge to 25-30+ kt with gusts to 30-40 kt, which will peak Thursday afternoon/evening. In response, seas will build to 4-8 ft. Gale Watches are in effect starting tomorrow afternoon for all waters except the inland rivers. Additionally, the cold front will be accompanied by a risk of thunderstorms on Thursday, the strongest of which may produce enhanced wind gusts and brief waterspouts.
Outlook: Winds and seas will lay down Friday and Saturday with more benign marine conditions expected. Winds and seas will rebuild Sunday into Monday associated with the next strong cold front.
Nc, none. Marine, gale watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for amz131-135-230-231. Dense fog advisory until 2 pm EDT this afternoon for amz135- 150-152-154-156. Gale watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for amz150-152-154-156-158.
