Key MESSAGE 1, Strong but slow-moving cold front will approach the Carolinas Friday as disorganized shortwave energy over the Northern Plains phases over the Great Lakes and digs across the mid-Atlantic. Mid-level heights will remain well above average for late March (up to 1-2 sigma), with low level thicknesses supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s inland on Friday, which may threaten a few records - see the CLIMATE section for details.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Increased moisture advection along the southward-advancing frontal zone looks to support the next appreciable chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, focused mainly Friday night into Saturday with the best chances north of US Highway 70. Instability continues to look meager with less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE, and the severe thunderstorm risk appears to be very low (less than 2%). Overall moisture does not look to be deep enough to support significant rainfall, although several 12z models are showing higher QPF amounts to around a quarter inch with some HiRes models showing up to a half inch. Highest amount still appear to be across the northern tier.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Behind this front, another surge of northerly winds is expected Friday night and Saturday, along with cooler, below normal temperatures returning over the weekend. There is a potential for frost Saturday night with latest NBM probs showing greater than 70 percent across inland counties.
18z Thursday through Tuesday VFR flight cats across the board this afternoon with CIGs>FL040 Skies expected to clear overnight THU. Swerly winds will continue 10G15-20kt through this evening, relaxing to AoB 10kt overnight, but not completely calm. Cold front crosses the region FRI afternoon with gusty SWerly winds again ahead of the front and diurnal CU AoA FL040.
Outlook: The next cold front is forecast to reach ENC late Friday, pushing offshore by Saturday morning. Similar to this recent front, there will be a risk of SCT SHRA, isolated TSRA, and a notable northerly wind shift. Once again it looks like there will be a risk of 20-35kt wind gusts behind the front. Sub VFR conditions may develop as well, especially where SHRA develop with CIGs forecast to decrease to MVFR after sunset Friday night, and potentially IFR by the early morning hours Saturday.
Currently seeing SW winds around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4 ft but winds will continue to increase to around 15-25 kt with seas building to 4-6 ft this evening and continue through Friday ahead of a strong cold front. The front will push south across the waters late Friday afternoon and evening with a strong northerly surge developing behind the front. The strongest CAA will occur after midnight Friday through much of Saturday when Gale Force conditions are possible with highest chances across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Seas will build to 6-10+ ft peaking during the day Saturday. Have added an SCA for the Pamlico Sound for gusts to 25 kt in pre-frontal SW winds. Also issued a Gale Watch from late Friday night for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound.
Outlook: Seas will likely remain elevated into at least Sunday. Mostly benign conditions expected for much of next week with high pressure centered off the coast.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 4 pm Friday to 8 pm EDT Saturday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 6 am EDT Saturday for amz135. Gale watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for amz135. Small craft advisory from 8 pm Friday to 8 pm EDT Saturday for amz136-137. Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 am EDT Saturday for amz150. Gale watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for amz150. Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 3 am EDT Saturday for amz152-154-156. Gale watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for amz152-154-156. Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 3 am EDT Saturday for amz158. Gale watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for amz158.
