Key message 1,
A strong cold front will move through ENC later this morning with an Arctic airmass building in behind it today. Temperatures will fall into the 30s by daybreak and will struggle to warm much past the low 40s this afternoon. Increasing NW winds will make it feel like the 20s to low 30s for most of the day. Tonight, CAA continues with temps falling into the upper teens to low 20s overnight, and wind chills will range from 10-15 degrees after midnight through about 8-9 am Friday. A Cold Weather Advisory may need to be issued later today, but confidence wasn't high enough at this juncture to issue.
key message 2,
A potentially favorable upper air pattern for winter weather will develop this weekend with a very deep and cold upper level trough reaching down to the GOA. As this trough pivots eastward Saturday into Sunday, a surface low is expected to form along a surface boundary off the SE coast, and deepen as it moves offshore Sunday. Exactly how far south (of ENC) this front reaches, where the low forms along the front, and how strong the low becomes are the main questions at this time frame. If the low forms too close to the coast not enough cold air will be in place for any wintry precip except for across the northern coastal plain, while a solution farther offshore would allow for sufficient cold air to change rain to snow across much of ENC.
The current forecast favors a colder solution, somewhat similar to the GFS and GEFS, but is well away from the even colder ECMWF and EPS solutions. Other deterministic guidance remains much warmer. Also, precip amounts show a wide range of solutions from as little as 0.1"-0.2", to nearly an inch. We will continue to closely monitor the trends for this system.
12z Thursday through Monday Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Cold front is currently making its way E'wards across ENC this morning. While we have remained VFR through the overnight hours some increasing MVFR ceilings at 2.5-3.0 kft has been noted just to the west. While these MVFR ceilings may clip the region, given the expected short duration of MVFR ceilings, generally 1 hr or less if they were to impact a TAF site, have only kept a SCT cloud deck at 2.5 kft to account for this lower end possibility. Otherwise VFR conditions will then persist behind the front through Fri nght as high pressure builds in from the west. Once the front pushes offshore, expect clear skies across the region into Fri morning. Behind the front, breezy northwesterly winds will kick in with gusts to 20-25 kt possible especially across the coastal plain mid morning Thurs through Thurs evening before winds gradually begin to ease.
Outlook: High pressure returns for Friday into Sat resulting in VFR conditions Fri and Sat. No changes to Sun as we continue to monitor for potential low pressure development and sub-VFR flight categories Sun, with a return to VFR conditions likely on Mon.
Gale conditions have developed under SW winds across the warmer nearshore waters south of Oregon Inlet this morning, and are expected to continue until the cold front crosses through the area. Thereafter, a brief lull is anticipated when winds will dip down to 20-25 kts, until winds restrengthen out of the NW this evening to 25-30 kts, with gusts to 35 kts.
Marginal Small craft conditions will continue across most of the other marine areas this morning ahead of the cold front. Stronger winds behind the front this evening through tonight will bring Small Craft conditions to all the remaining waters, and there could be some Gale Force gusts across the Pamlico Sound and nearshore waters north of Oregon Inlet.
Seas will be 5-7 ft through tonight, and then subside to below 6 ft by mid tomorrow morning.
Outlook: After a brief improvement Friday, Small Craft conditions will likely redevelop Saturday ahead of a cold front, and then again late Sunday behind the front.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 7 am EST Friday for amz131-135-150- 230-231. Small craft advisory until 4 am EST Friday for amz136-137. Gale warning until 3 am EST Friday for amz152-154-156-158.
