Key MESSAGE 1, There is potential for another Increased Fire Danger statement tomorrow (THU), but conditions are more marginal.
No change with regards to the forecast or the ongoing burn ban, as NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Minrh values appear lower tomorrow, but forecast calls for slightly weaker Serly winds. Ncfs has set thresholds (already above normal IFD criteria) for a potential IFD for THU for areas MinRH <= 40% AND wind gusts >= 20mph. Day shift today has opted to give the midnight crew one more cut at the winds Td/RH forecast for THU before making a decision on whether or not to issue an IFD.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through the first part of the weekend.
Dry and warming forecast through the remainder of the work- week, with model consensus keeping the high anchored offshore, precluding any precis associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast. Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids, will be later in the week (THU-SAT). This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. Adding additional support for the drier scenario is climatological guidance (CFC), which shows a strong signal for below normal precipitation through the end of the week. Consequently, NBM continues to keep PoPs below mentionable all the way through SAT night. Above normal temperatures will continue this week and into the weekend, with MaxTs mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches. Mints generally 60.
KEY MESSAGE 3, A cold front will push through the area late this weekend into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines.
A cold front will approach the area Sunday, likely moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday. Increasing shower chances Sunday and Monday, along with isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. Nbm has caught on to the trend in deterministic guidance of the low pressure system expected to develop and travel along the front early next week, passing far enough offshore to eliminate PoPs by MON morning. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early next week.
00z Thursday through Monday VFR conditions are expected through the period. Ssw winds at 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt will continue for the next few hours before becoming 5-10 kt overnight with few to scattered high clouds. Tomorrow, winds will become SSE at around 10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt and fair weather cu in the afternoon.
Outlook (Friday through Monday): Mainly VFR, best chance for sub VFR late Sun into Mon with rain associated with an incoming front.
Rinse and repeat from previous days through this evening. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the first half of the weekend, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place through the period. Expect 15-25kt SWerly winds and 4-5 ft seas through this evening, winds calming some to 10-15kt, allowing seas to lay down overnight and through the early morning until the thermal gradient strengthens again in the afternoon. Gulf Stream waters, far Eern portions of Pamlico Sound, and Croatan and Roanoke Sounds most likely to see gusts up to 25kt, but not strong enough to warrant the issuance of a <6hr long SCA this evening afternoon.
Outlook (Late Weekend into Early next week): Winds become more Serly THU and FRI and relax some, generally 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt during peak heating. Fropa is expected late SUN into MON and represents the next best chance of SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. Front will be accompanied with showers and tstorms. Pops remaining in place potentially into middle of next week, but likely outside of 20nm, as an area of low pressure develops off the FL coast and travels along the boundary well out to sea.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
