Key MESSAGE 1, As of early this morning, a deepening Nor'easter was located about 230 miles NE of Cape Hatteras, and was moving slowly north. Guidance is now well-clustered with the track of this low as it continues north towards Southern New England. However, the northward progress should be slowed by an upper ridge sliding east from the Great Lakes to Northern New England over the weekend. This should steer the Nor'easter west towards the Northern Mid-Atlantic later tonight into Sunday. Eventually, the system will weaken and lift NE away from the U.S. East Coast.
On the southern periphery of the Nor'easter, a moderate to strong gradient is forecast to remain in place across northeast NC and the northern OBX. Despite a bit of a lull in the strongest winds this morning, the wind forecast was left mostly unchanged as guidance suggests the gradient may restrengthen as the Nor'easter potentially moves a bit west of due north along the coast. It's possible that the strongest gradient, and strongest winds, will remain just east of the coast, and adjustments down with the wind forecast may be needed. It should be noted that the gradient is expected to be significantly weaker across the southwestern half of our forecast area, with noticeably wind differences from NE to SW. That said, a dry and well-mixed airmass today should support one more day of gusty winds of 20-25mph inland away from the coast.
The dry airmass should keep most of ENC dry today. The one exception, though, is along the NRN OBX. There, increasing CAA on the western periphery of the Nor'easter should lead to steep low- level lapse rates along the length of the Chesapeake Bay (where water temps are still in the 70s). This plus a favorable trajectory down the length of the Bay should support a band of showers extending southeast from eastern VA into NE NC.
Despite winds gradually decreasing today, coastal impacts will continue to plague portions of the OBX. Buoys currently show wave heights of 10-13ft at 12-13 seconds, and this should continue to lead to wave runup and ocean overwash impacts along vulnerable stretches of the OBX, with a continued focus on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Portions of NC-12 remain closed on both Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Adding to the impact of the wave runup and overwash is the already elevated astronomical tides ongoing through the weekend. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect until this evening for those areas. For soundside locations, water levels remain the most elevated for areas favored in north or northwest flow, including areas around Ocracoke and Hatteras Villages. Various coastal flood headlines remain in effect through the morning high tide, but may need to be extended in time depending on how the winds and seas evolve today. In addition, as the Nor'easter pulls away from the area, a more dominant westerly wind is expected to develop by Sunday, and this may lead to a risk of minor coastal flooding around Roanoke Island.
KEY MESSAGE 2, By mid to late next week, a notable upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Southeastern U.S. This combined with rising low-level thicknesses in southerly flow should support warming temperatures, including the potential for a period of above normal highs once again. Moisture is forecast to be slower to return, and this should support mostly dry conditions for much of the upcoming week.
12z Saturday through Wednesday Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.
A dry northerly flow should support VFR conditions at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. However, afternoon heating plus residual low-level moisture may allow an area of SCT to BKN VFR-level cumulus (4-6k ft) to develop during the day today. East of the TAF sites, an area of MVFR CIGs is expected to develop along with a band of SHRA on Saturday. This will impact OBX runways/airstrips.
Deep mixing plus modest northerly winds aloft should lead to a period of gusty NW winds, with gusts as high as 20-25kt. Stronger gusts (25-35kt) are expected for OBX runways.
Outlook: Winds will continue to gradually decrease over the remainder of the weekend as the Nor'easter pulls slowly away from the area and weakens. A dry airmass in the wake of that system should allow VFR conditions to prevail into at least the first half of next week.
As of early this morning, a deepening Nor'easter was located about 230 miles NE of Cape Hatteras, and was moving slowly north. On the southern periphery of this low, northerly winds of 20-35kt are ongoing across the central and northern waters. Further south, a weaker gradient has allowed winds to lay down to 15-25kt. Despite good model agreement with the track of the Nor'easter, there remains some uncertainty with how long the gale-force winds will last north of Cape Hatteras. The latest forecast may be a bit generous compared to recent obs. However, there is still some wiggle room over the next 12 hours or so with the track of the low, therefore the forecast, and marine headlines, were left mostly unchanged. It is worth noting that a bit of a lull in the winds this morning isn't a guarantee that stronger winds won't return for a time today. A more substantial laying down of the winds is expected by tonight or Sunday as the Nor'easter finally lifts further away from the local area.
For the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, dangerous seas of 12- 18ft will continue through today, then finally begin to lay down to 10ft, or less, by tonight. South of Cape Hatteras, the most dangerous seas are expected for the outer coastal waters, while the waters closer to shore will have elevated seas, but not as high as further out.
Outlook: Boating conditions are expected to substantially improve as we move into next week. Northerly flow is forecast to flip back to southerly flow by the middle of the week.
Nc, beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until 11 am EDT this morning for ncz204- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz131- 230. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz135- 231. Gale warning until 4 pm EDT this afternoon for amz150-182. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Sunday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for amz156-158. Gale warning until 7 pm EDT this evening for amz180.
