Key MESSAGE 1, With a similar setup to the past couple nights, low stratus and areas of fog likely to develop over the SW portions of the area late tonight and Thu morning. Best chances are in Onslow/Duplin county, decreasing as you go further north and east. Fog and low stratus will quickly scour out by 9 AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Thursday we will have a bit more moisture to play with as the front approaches from the north. As a result, we may see some isolated to scattered convection along the sea breeze. Best chances along the coast in the morning, then transitioning inland during the afternoon. Where the sea breeze collides with the approaching cold front PoPs and QPF are maximized. Temps likely a few deg cooler with better convective chances and increased cloud cover.
The mid-upper level ridge will begin to break down some Thursday and continue into the weekend, allowing a front to drop south late Thursday into Friday and then stall as it encounters the persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the past week. Confidence continues to increase on the front reaching our CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly stalling over NC. The front will likely linger over the area for a couple days before the boundary eventually lifts back northward over the weekend with ridging building back in its wake. The trend of a slower frontal passage has held tonight, with the front not reaching our area from the north until Thu evening. Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance depicts a 30-40% chance of over a quarter inch of rainfall, especially along and north of Highway 64 along the frontal boundary on Thursday. Ahead of the front, the pre-storm environment should be sufficiently unstable for a few storms as CAPE peak at 750-1500 J/kg. With forecast steep low-level lapse rates and modest dry air aloft, combined with PWATs in the 1.5-1.75" range, the environment would be marginally conducive for the risk of a strong downburst in a more organized storm. Said organization, however, would require some amount of deep level shear and this appears lacking with 0-6 km values under 15 kt. Overall svr risk still looks low at this time for the next few days. Main change through Sat was to lower pops, especially Fri and Sat, with coverage likely remaining more sct in nature. Beyond Sat, the front becomes weak enough that diurnal sea and sound breezes become dominant, focusing the highest shower and thunderstorm chances inland. Each of these days carries a low, highly conditional severe risk as well per ML guidance.
Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over urban areas, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought.
18z Wednesday through Monday VFR conditions across the area this afternoon, with few-sct diurnal cu. Similar set up overnight with potential for another round of fog and low stratus, especially across the SW forecast area. Models have struggled with the fog and low stratus the past few nights, being too passive compared to what has actually occurred. Expect this to occur again tonight, so leaned towards persistence. Best chances of VLIFR-IFR late tonight are for OAJ, decreasing as you go north and east. Vfr will return for most of Thu, with sct showers and storms developing in the afternoon.
Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions into early next week.
Latest obs show SSW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Summer- like pattern will continue through Thursday, with lighter winds in the mornings then increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evenings as the thermal gradient tightens. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening.
Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area Thursday evening/night, then linger near the waters into Saturday. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. Ne-e winds will develop behind the front, while remaining SSW ahead of it, generally 5-15 kt. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Monday.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
