Key MESSAGE 1, Today is a beautiful end to May with high pressure overhead supporting few clouds and below climo temperatures and dew points. Similarly to last night, winds are expected to go light to calm. This will be a good radiational cooling setup to support lows in the mid to upper-50s inland and low-60s along the beaches. Ahead of a cold front that's forecast to cross the area Monday night, chances for scattered showers will start to increase from south to north tonight but should remain at 25% or less until after sunrise.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Temperatures will rebound tomorrow as the high moves offshore and return flow brings increasing moisture ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is forecast to cross the area tomorrow night with shower and thunderstorm chances peaking between the afternoon and evening (50-75%).
KEY MESSAGE 3, A positively tilted upper-level trough will swing across the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday, which will help keep a developing coastal low farther offshore. This pattern continues to trend the forecast towards an overall cooler and drier solution. There's a slight chances that some wrap around showers on the back side of the offshore low could advect onto land through early afternoon, but the majority of the area looks to remain precip free for the bulk of the day. More notable than the precip will be the breezy northeasterly gradient winds, which could gust to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast.
18z Sunday through Friday VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight hours. Chances for showers will start to increase from south to north tomorrow morning with thunderstorms becoming more likely in the afternoon hours. A BKN deck of MVFR CIGs should develop between 12-15Z with reductions in VIS possible within any shower or thunderstorm.
Outlook: Tuesday has trended drier but it will be quite breezy throughout the day with NE gusts to 15-20 kt inland and 20-25 kt along the coast. Winds will remain out of the NE on Wednesday and there's a slight chance of showers (highest along the coast). Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
Conditions will continue to improve today but 6+ ft seas are expected to linger across the central waters until tomorrow evening.
Outlook: Improved conditions will be short-lived as the next round of SCA winds and seas are expected to develop by early Tuesday morning with a low developing offshore. A pinched gradient will bring a surge of NEerly winds gusting to 25-30+ kt Tuesday evening and seas building to 6-10 ft by Tuesday night. There's potential for Gales south of Cape Hatteras and especially in the 20-60 nm zone south of Cape Lookout. Winds should drop below SCA criteria by Wednesday evening but elevated seas could persist into early Thursday.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 4 pm EDT this afternoon for amz150. Small craft advisory until 6 pm EDT Monday for amz152-154.
