Key MESSAGE 1, A stalled front currently stretches from the TN Valley east through ENC. Along the front resides a very moist airmass with PWATs of 2"+, and modest instability with MLCAPE of 500- 1000j/kg. Over the next 24 hours, this front is forecast to wabble some as various mid-level waves ride along it, but generally remain locked in place over ENC. While periods of rain are expected to persist along the front, the intensity of the rain will fluctuate, peaking with each passing wave. One wave is moving through now, and the next wave is forecast to move through later this evening and tonight. There may be a bit of a "lull" in rainfall coverage and intensity on Friday as the front sags south temporarily. The front should then get pulled back north Friday night into Saturday as yet another wave traverse the frontal zone. Each successive wave is forecast to have less instability with it, which is one factor that should limit the duration of the more intense rainfall rates. However, given the anomalous moisture present, plus increased low- level and large- scale forcing, rainfall rates of 0.50"-1.50" should be common for several hours through tonight, and again later Friday through Saturday morning.
This should support additional rainfall totals of 2-4", with higher amounts where the deepest/most persistent convection occurs. Because of the waning instability and lowering rainfall rates, the risk of flash flooding has slightly decreased. The latest excessive rainfall outlook from WPC now shows a Slight Risk of flash flooding for ENC through Saturday.
The passage of earlier convection has stabilized the atms over ENC for a while, and thus have lowered the prob for thunderstorms to 20-30%. On Friday, best chances of thunderstorms are generally near and to the south of where instability is the highest (ie. South of HWY 70).
21z Thursday through Tuesday Widespread RA and occasional TS will continue to impact ENC TAF sites over the next 24 hours. This is all due to a stalled front in the area. Cigs will continue to lower as well, with LIFR/IFR conditions north of the front and MVFR conditions to the south. Given uncertainties in the placement of the front, there are uncertainties regarding when/where LIFR/IFR conditions will occur. Best chc for thunder will be across the southern terminals EWN and OAJ.
Outlook (Friday night through Tuesday): Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA and low CIGs will continue to plague ENC through Saturday as a frontal boundary remains stalled over the area. The front is forecast to finally shift south of ENC from north to south on Sat with gradually improving aviation conditions by Sunday.
A front has stalled across the area this afternoon, and will generally remain in place through Saturday. The gradient has relaxed around this front, with both winds and seas laying down. Widespread rain and occasional thunderstorms can be expected along this front through Saturday.
Outlook: A stalled front will finally shift offshore by Saturday night, with light northerly winds developing for all waters by Sunday. The risk of thunderstorms is expected to decrease on Sunday as well. A more typical summertime wind and sea pattern then returns next week.
Nc, flood watch through Friday morning for ncz029-044>047-079>081- 203. Flood watch through Friday evening for ncz090>092-094-193>196- 198-199-204-205. Marine, none.
