Key message 1, Forecast is panning out well based on current observations, as winds are gusting to 30-40 mph along the Outer Banks this afternoon, decreasing to 15-25 mph inland. Low pressure system is sitting about 250 miles east of Cape Hatteras, with the latest RAP analysis showing a minimum pressure of 1011 mb. The low is expected to rapidly strengthen and slowly shift north in the coming days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty N/NE winds and dangerous coastal and marine conditions. Uncertainty still exists with the eventual strength of the low as it shifts off the New England coast as we approach this weekend. This result in continued low to moderate confidence on the end time of hazardous marine conditions and coastal impacts.
Regarding sensible weather, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast are expected to persist through Thursday. Flooding risk remains very low.
By far, the greatest impacts with this coastal low are expected for the Outer Banks. There, a period of moderate to strong northeast to north winds are developing today, and then potentially lasting as Saturday morning, especially if a westward and slower trend holds. Probabilistic guidance shows a strong signal for reaching Wind Advisory criteria with both sustained winds and gusts, and the wind advisory for Dare County, Ocracoke, and Downeast Carteret County remains in effect. For the OBX from Cape Hatteras north, peak gusts could top out around 50 mph, and this may lead to some minor tree and power line damage, along with a risk of isolated power outages. Roads along the Outer Banks may be dangerous to traverse for high profile vehicles, especially along bridges.
The strong, and longer duration, of the winds is also expected to support an increased risk of coastal impacts. Building seas and increasing swell periods will lead to dangerous surf conditions in addition to a risk of beach erosion, wave runup, ocean overwash, and minor to moderate coastal flooding. Wave heights in the surf zone may reach 10-15ft at 10-13s from Duck to Cape Hatteras, peaking on Thursday. Of note, the highest wave energy appears to be aligned with the evening high tide Thursday (which happens to be the highest of the two high tides Thursday). This will likely result in impacts to vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks north of Ocracoke Inlet where dune structures are compromised or non-existent. At this point the 6-8ft+ wave heights in the surf zone may last into this weekend. A High Surf Advisory Remains in effect through Saturday evening.
For soundside areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, and the nearby Neuse River, persistent northeasterly winds may lead to minor coastal flooding later today through Friday. Already, some gauges in the southern Pamlico Sound are approaching or have reached minor flood levels. Eventually the winds are expected to turn more northerly, which may then allow the soundside coastal flooding risk to shift to portions of Ocracoke and Hatteras Villages.
Please continue to stay tuned for future updates as this is a complex and longer-duration coastal low event, with subtle changes in strength and path of the low leading to increased, or decreased, coastal impacts.
key message 2, As the low shifts to New England and eventually weakens, sfc high and ridging aloft builds into ENC early next week. This will bring lighter winds, sunshine, and warmer weather back to the region. Of note, despite the warming weather, light northerly to variable winds early next week are forecast to keep dewpoints in the 50s, making for more comfortable conditions despite highs warming up into the mid to upper 80s.
18z Wednesday through Monday Currently MVFR conditions prevailing at all TAF sites this afternoon as ceilings persist in the 1-2 kft range. Breezy conditions picking up with gusts out of the north and northeast at 15 to 20 kts. Currently some light VCSH near PGV and ISO but the corridor between OAJ and EWN is dry at this time.
No real change in forecast thinking as a coastal low develops over the next couple of days. Conditions are generally expected to vary between low MVFR to IFR into tonight as low stratus continues to stream into ENC today. A more pronounced period of IFR may preside for PGV and KISO late this evening into the early morning hours with IFR more questionable at OAJ and EWN. Regardless of the arrival of IFR conditions, MVFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period.
Overnight expect northeasterly wind gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range and rising to 20-25 kts after sunrise Thursday. Beware of crosswind component at KEWN on RNWY 14/32.
Outlook: A coastal low will continue to support periods of gusty winds, low CIGs, and SHRA through the end of the week. Cigs may eventually rise to VFR levels by the weekend as drier air begins to wraparound the western periphery of the low.
Consolidating and deepening low pressure off the North Carolina coast will result in dangerous boating conditions over the next few days. For the coastal Waters, gale force NErly winds are expected into Friday with 20-30 kt winds and 35-45 kt gusts forecast for just about all of the waters outside of the Pamlico/Pungo/Neuse/Bay Rivers where SCA conditions will be noted. Seas of 10-20ft will be possible, especially for the waters from Cape Lookout north through Duck. The nearshore coastal waters sheltered in N and NE flow south of Lookout may only have seas peak at 2-7ft. Swell periods will gradually build to 10-13s during this time as well. Marine headlines in effect nicely cover the expected hazards, with no changes in this update. Of note, there is some uncertainty on the end time of some marine products, and hopefully confidence on an end time increases in the coming day.
Outlook: Based on the latest guidance, hazardous marine conditions may last well into the weekend, especially for the coastal waters as seas remain elevated. However, winds should gradually lay down over the weekend as the low pulls away and a high builds in.
Nc, wind advisory until 2 am EDT Friday for ncz047-196-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 11 am EDT Friday for ncz094-194- 196. Beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm EDT Friday for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT Saturday for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until 11 pm EDT Friday for ncz204-205. Marine, gale warning until 8 pm EDT Friday for amz131-135-154-184-186- 230-231. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Friday for amz136-137. Gale warning until 8 am EDT Saturday for amz150-152-180-182. Gale warning until 8 am EDT Friday for amz156-158-188.
