Key MESSAGE 1, Overall synoptic pattern has changed little from yesterday with frontal boundary still stalled from roughly Wilmington into Onslow Bay. However, precipitation coverage this morning is far more limited with stronger forcing displace to our west despite ample moisture. All guidance shows an uptick in shower coverage with embedded thunderstorm coverage after about 08-09z as shortwave trough currently over eastern TN provides the necessarily support, with highest coverage likely filling in over the Outer Banks and towards the Crystal Coast.
Uptick of showers and thunderstorms will continue into the daytime hours, becoming enhanced late morning into the afternoon with slight building of instability. Ensemble of hi- res guidance gives the highest probabilities of heaviest rainfall lingering along the southern coast, especially in the afternoon with enhanced low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary. However, there is still some spread in where axis of highest precipitation totals reside with a few members showing higher amounts displaced farther north. Given this continued uncertainty, the existing Flood Watch was maintained through tonight for all areas. The odds of seeing the highest precipitation amounts are a subjective 60-75% across the southern half of the FA and 25-40% across the northern half.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected today, most likely from the Outer Banks southwestward along the Crystal Coast. In locations where training occurs, locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches remain possible in a reasonable worst case scenario. Within the watch area, there will continue to be a risk of minor/nuisance flooding, but with a continued risk of a few instances of flash flooding. Additionally, we've received some reports of trees coming down in the absence of much wind, and this is likely due to saturated soils, not strong winds. This may continue to be a risk, especially for areas that have seen the most rainfall over the past 24-36 hours.
Overall severe risk appears low today, but cannot rule out a weakly rotating storm or two closer to the frontal boundary which could produce a brief spin up and gusty winds up to 30-40 mph at times.
KEY MESSAGE 2, With Sunday and Monday trending drier with the lingering front finally getting carried offshore, focus then turns to another front approaching the eastern CONUS next mid- week. This boundary appears weaker and more progressive than our current boundary but will still provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Ahead of the boundary, strengthening southwesterly flow and building low-level thicknesses will bring a return of oppressive heat with at least a couple days of heat indices approaching or exceeding 105F possible.
There is also an improvement in mid-level kinematics with this boundary and there is elevated potential for some stronger storms, primarily posing a damaging wind gust risk. This will be be dependent on frontal timing which remains uncertain, but trends will need to be monitored.
12z Saturday through Wednesday Fairly widespread LIFR and IFR persists this morning as frontal boundary continues to meander across the region, which has now lifted northward to roughly NKT to south of MQI. Front is expected to still meander today, likely beginning to drift southward late in the day, keeping a strong frontal inversion in place through about 00z until the boundary finally exits offshore overnight. While boundary is further north, EWN and OAJ have brief opportunities (mainly between 18z-21z) to scatter out to improved cigs, but this will likely be punctuated by fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage.
Precipitation threat ends from west to east from 00z onward as front pushes offshore and dry air begins to advect in aloft. Low-levels will remain very saturated, however, and with little or any wind and highly saturated soils redevelopment of very low stratus and/or fog is very probable Sat night into Sun morning.
Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): The stalled front is forecast to finally shift south of ENC from north to south Saturday night with gradually improving aviation conditions by Sunday. Next chance of rain Tue night into Wed.
Cold front is currently stalled over Onslow Bay early this morning with regional observations showing winds at around 10 kt or less. Like yesterday, frontal boundary will move very little through tonight. Winds and seas will remain safely below SCA through the period but multiple rounds of widespread rain and the occasional thunderstorm will continue to plague area waters. Boundary will finally drift farther offshore later tonight ending convective chances by Sun morning.
Outlook: Moderate northerly winds expected to develop for all waters by Sunday. The risk of thunderstorms is expected to decrease on Sunday as well. A more typical summertime wind and sea pattern then returns next week, with increasing risk of SCA conditions Tues and Wed ahead of another approaching front.
Nc, flood watch through this evening for ncz029-044>047-079>081- 090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Marine, none.
