Key MESSAGE 1, At the moment, there is a weak coastal trough that is moving through the coastal Carolinas, bringing scatered to numerous showers producing wind gusts 20-30 knots. As the trough and associated precip shifts north into ENC, it will encounter a more stable environment inland and showers should gradually weaken. However along the coast we still have plenty of instability and some moisture convergence, so showers should keep their strength if not strengthen along the coast and for offshore waters through the early morning hours. Coverage of showers along the ENC coast this morning is uncertain however.
Beyond this morning, today the last day of a weak stalled trough over the TN Valley before it further weakens and gets swept up by a stronger trough over the great lakes. This upper level forcing today, results in one last day of above average chances of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the sea breeze. This is aided by the continued southerly flow and record high PWATs for the day observed in the KMHX soundings in the past 24 hours. While storm motions should be progressive, storms will be capable of dropping a quick 1-2 inches, resulting in minor flooding concerns. If we get enough breaks in the clouds this afternoon, instability could climb to near 3,000 J/kg, which would bring a concern of wet microbursts. After we lose daytime heating, rain chances go down drastically. For tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Thursday onwards area returns to climo or below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or significant forcing will be noted across Eastern NC. This will likely result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along the sea- breeze, but once again these chances should be isolated at best given the overall setup. After a cool start to the week temperatures begin to rebound back into the upper 80s to low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX.
07z Wednesday through Sunday Mainly VFR has continued at TAF sites early this morning despite the moist southerly flow for days with near calm winds. And a lack of mid-level clouds. As we approach sunrise, the threat for sub-VFR vis and cig continue. A few showers this morning are possible, with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon Rain chances quickly dwindle after sunset with a loss of daytime heating, with sub-VFR chances returning again tonight.
Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look to decrease Thursday into the weekend as high pressure builds into the area.
Winds remain below 20 knots out of the south, with waves 2-4 ft as high pressure ridges over the area through the week, resulting in pleasant boating conditions outside of any shower/tstorm chances.
Outlook (Thursday through Saturday): Expect more benign winds and seas for the period as high pressure remains the dominant feature across the region. Winds generally remain below 15 kts and seas persist around 2-4 ft into the weekend.
Nc, beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz195-196-199-204-205. Marine, none.
