Key MESSAGE 1, Another remnant MCV is pushing across the Carolina piedmont this afternoon and expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to push across ENC late this afternoon. Already seeing a few showers develop this afternoon with instability increasing and could see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon ahead of better forcing with the MCV. Guidance is not showing quite as an organized line of thunderstorms as we say yesterday, likely to to weaker shear over yesterday, but DCAPE and instability are similar and could see stronger storms produce gusty/damaging winds of 50-70 mph.
In the wake of the late-day/evening convection, a frontal boundary is forecast to settle into the area, with areas of low pressure rippling east along it through Monday. Increasing moisture and lift along the frontal zone is expected to support multiple rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. While the pattern appears kind of messy for severe weather, the frontal zone probably helps to boost deep layer shear some, and there may be at least a marginal/low-end severe risk, especially on Sunday. Additionally, multiple rounds of thunderstorms within a moist environment (PWAT values around 2.25") could lead to some hydro issues. This may especially be the case on Sunday when instability and lift will be maximized, favoring the heaviest rainfall rates and amounts. In light of this, WPC has increased the risk of flash flooding from marginal to slight for much of ENC for Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 2, In the wake of the active convective period through Monday, a not as hot northeasterly flow regime will develop across the Carolinas early next week, favoring slightly below climo temps. This will offer a brief reprieve from the dangerous heat of late. The reprieve is expected to be short- lived, however, as heat rebuilds late-week.
00z Sunday through Thursday Pred VFR conditions continue at terminals with two areas of convection to watch, the more robust pushing across the inner coastal plain and likely to impact PGV and ISO within the hour and moving ESE, and more isolated and short-lived single cells from roughly EWN to MRH. Stronger storms have had a history of producing winds up to 30 kt and very low visibility in torrential rainfall - this threat will continue for coastal plain terminals through 01z and EWN through 02z.
A frontal boundary drops into the area late tonight into early Sun morning which may bring additional showers and occasional sub- VFR conditions. The probabilities for sub-VFR stratus remain quite low with highest probs around 20-30% across far northern rtes late tonight into Sunday morning in the vicinity and north of the frontal boundary. To the south the probabilities are less than 20%. Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop tomorrow afternoon with the frontal boundary stalled across the area bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions, and introduced VCTS to TAFs this cycle given higher confidence.
Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): An increased risk of TSRA is expected to last through Monday and possibly lingering into Tuesday, bringing an increased risk of sub-VFR conditions. This is due to a frontal zone and a developing area of low pressure interacting with a moist and unstable airmass over the area. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to return by Wednesday.
W to SW winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-5 ft across the waters this afternoon. A frontal boundary will drop into the region late tonight into Sunday with winds shifting to N to NE around 10-15 kt to the north of the front. The front is expected to stall over the area Sunday with lighter and somewhat variable winds to the south of the front. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this evening ahead of the approaching front and continue into early next week with the front stalled near the area.
Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): An area of low pressure is forecast to develop and move east along a stalled frontal zone late Sunday into Monday, then shift east by Tuesday. Some guidance showing occasional periods of 25kt winds and/or 6ft seas developing around this low Sunday night into Monday, and marine headlines may eventually be needed for a portion of the waters, with a better chance on Monday. Boating conditions are forecast to improve by Tuesday or Wednesday as winds and seas lay down with good boating conditions continuing into Thursday.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
