Key MESSAGE 1, Pattern across the CONUS remains stagnant, especially over the eastern portion of the country with pronounced mid-level ridging and persistent moist low-level southwesterly flow. After hanging on for much of the morning, lingering near-shore sea fog has lifted and all areas have good visibility today. Persistence forecast is the name of the game day with no change in the pattern except for even higher dew points, with fog developing close to midnight and hanging on into the morning hours with coastal areas likely socked in longer. Highest risk for lowest visibilities is areas along and south of US 70.
A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight, and fog could extend inland from the coast at times.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some afternoons, especially tomorrow through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures.
Latest forecast trends show a weak front moving into the Carolinas late this weekend and into early next week, bringing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, though it looks like well above normal temps will continue.
18z Thursday through Tuesday Daytime heating and mixing have helped erode any residual fog from this morning, leaving behind scattered cumulus clouds. This should support VFR conditions through at least sunset. After sunset, and especially overnight into early Friday morning, the focus will shift to the potential for IFR/LIFR conditions in low CIGs and BR/FG. Guidance shows a strong signal for low CIGs and FG tonight, not unlike what has been happening the past couple of nights and mornings. Therefore, confidence in sub VFR conditions is high. However, where confidence is lower is how far inland the low CIGs and FG will get, and how low CIGs and VIS will get. With this TAF issuance, I trended the forecast at each TAF site more pessimistically, and tried to more closely match how CIGs and VIS evolved last night and this morning. Below is some probability information for each TAF site to help tell the full story of the LIFR potential tonight into early Friday morning.
LIFR PROBABILITY (06z-13z Friday)
kewn: 40-60% kpgv: 10-30% koaj: 60-80% kiso: 10-30%
Outlook: ENC will remain in the same weather pattern through Saturday, with a continued risk of IFR/LIFR conditions each night and morning. A cold front then moves into the area on Sunday, leading to a change in the weather pattern, but also bringing with it an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. This risk may linger into early next week.
Sea FOG: Persistence forecast remains for sea fog tonight, following the pattern of the previous nights. Sea fog will likely redevelop this evening in moist and anomalously warm southwesterly flow, eventually expanding overnight and bleeding into inland areas. A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight.
WINDS/SEAS: Pleasant boating conditions are expected (outside of fog) for the next couple of days with high pressure offshore. Winds will be SSW/SW at 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft.
Outlook: Good boating conditions continue into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine area. A stronger front may cross the region in the middle of next week, although significant timing and intensity differences remain.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
