Key MESSAGE 1, Strong high pressure building into the Mid- Atlantic and low pressure well off the SE coast will result in a period of breezy to strong NE winds returning late today through early next week with strongest winds along the coast, especially south of Cape Hatteras where gradients will be tightest. This, combined with developing King Tides could lead to additional minor coastal impacts (coastal flooding and rough surf).
For Hatteras Island, long period swells will subside a bit today to around 6-7 ft, however with increasing NE winds, seas are expected to build up to 7-9 ft tonight and continue through the weekend. This will continue to bring the threat of ocean overwash to vulnerable areas where the dune structure has been compromised, especially around the times of high tide. Today's high tides are around 545 AM this morning and 6 pm this evening. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe. Will continue the Coastal Flood Advisory for Hatteras Island due to the potential for ocean overwash.
The region is also entering a King Tide cycle this weekend that will continue through next week. Expect higher than normal tide cycles with minor "sunny day" coastal flooding across much of the tidal regions of ENC around times of high tide. The areas most susceptible to street flooding will be low lying areas along the Neuse and Bay rivers as well as Downeast Carteret County to North Topsail Beach as persistent moderate NE winds will contribute to additional waters rises.
key message 2, Pleasantly cooler air mass will remain with us through the next several days with temps continuing near to slightly below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s range.
Good radiational cooling conditions have developed once again early this morning with clear skies and calm winds. Many inland areas have dropped into the upper 30s to lower 40s with a few of the coolest locations dropping into the mid 30s. Patchy light frost will be possible in some of the coolest locations through sunrise. Ne winds will bring light mixing during the overnight hours tonight through the weekend keeping temps from dropping as much as the previous two nights and generally expect overnight lows from the mid 40s inland to the 50s to around 60 along the coast.
07z Friday through Tuesday Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period as the area remains under clear skies. Have seen patchy shallow steam fog develop at EWN and PGV given good radiational cooling conditions this morning but impacts are expected to be minimal at these terminals. Ne winds around 5-10 kt inland today while coastal sections will see winds pick up a bit more this afternoon to around 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt as gradients begin to tighten with high pressure build in from the north. Could see STCU begin to advect into the region late today and tonight with the potential for MVFR cigs along the coast.
Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): Generally, expect VFR conditions to continue through the next several days with strong high pressure building in from the north. However, coastal sections could see MVFR STCU at times. Breezy NE winds are expected to continue into early next week.
Currently seeing N to NE winds around 5-15 kt across the waters with seas around 6-9 ft across the central and northern waters and 2-5 ft across the southern waters. High pressure will build in from the north today acting to tighten the pressure gradients across the region with NE winds increasing to 15-25 kt with gust around 25-30 kt late today and tonight. The strongest winds will be across the outer waters south of Cape Hatteras where gusts up to 35-40 are expected late this afternoon through much of tonight and have issued a Gale Warning for these zones. Have also extended the Small Craft Advisory to include the Albemarle Sound and the Alligator, Neuse and Bay Rivers.
Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): Tightened pressure gradients between strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlatic states and low pressure well off the Southeast coast will continue to bring moderate to strong N to NE winds across the waters bringing a prolonged period of SCA conditions across the waters into early next week. Gradients will be tightest across the southern waters and could see additional periods of Gale Force conditions Saturday night into Monday with highest probability across the outer waters south of Cape Hatteras as well as near shore Onslow Bay.
Nc, beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz203-205. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz205. Marine, small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 8 am EDT Saturday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 pm EDT Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am EDT Monday for amz137. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Tuesday for amz150-152-154. Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm EDT Tuesday for amz156-158. Gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 am EDT Saturday for amz184-186. Gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 6 am EDT Saturday for amz188.
