Key message 1,
The cold front is currently moving across coastal plain counties headed towards the coast. Along this cold front, isolated showers are possible, with better coverage rain lagging a couple hours behind. Behind this cold front, winds shift to the NW then and can gust to 20-30 mph inland.
As this cold front shifts offshore and stalls along the Gulf Stream, there is now HIGH confidence that a nor'easter will form offshore and bring strong winds, high waves, and coastal flooding as well as extremely dangerous marine conditions through the weekend. There is increasing confidence of impacts lingering well into next week as more model guidance is supporting a solution where the nor'easter lingers offshore well into next week.
Exactly where the nor'easter tracks after it gets tired of sitting offshore and how much it is able to deepen are both still uncertain at this time. It is worth noting that with access to the warm gulf stream waters for multiple days, it is possible models are downplaying the eventual strength of the low.
Winds will pick up throughout the day with 25-30 mph gusts common as the front shifts offshore. Values will increase from west to east with areas near the coast experiencing much higher values. A wind advisory in effect for Carteret, Hyde, and Dare counties (both OBX and mainland) this afternoon to Monday evening, as the High Wind Watch was upgraded to a Wind Advisory with this update. The decision to go with a Wind Advisory instead of a High Wind Warning for OBX boiled down to the OBX being more resilient when it comes to pure wind impacts, especially considering the nor'easter a couple weeks ago had no pure wind impacts like trees down or widespread power outages. In addition, probs of wind gusts over 58 mph (HWW criteria) are generally below 20%. Further extensions into the work week are likely for some if not all zones given model trends. Upgrades to High Wind Warnings (especially for OBX) aren't out of the question if the nor'easter does deepen substantially more than models suggest, and will be worth monitoring.
2-4 foot above ground level coastal flooding will be possible with minor to moderate impacts throughout the Outer Banks, Core Banks and Downeast Carteret County. Impacts are expected to both sound and oceanside locales with potentially significant impacts to vulnerable areas on the ocean side. A mix of coastal flood headlines is in effect to cover these hazards. Additionally, a high surf advisory is in effect for the Outer Banks with breaking waves of generally 8-14 feet expected in the surf zone. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is also expected through much of the week.
key message 2,
After record breaking heat the last several days, temperatures are expected to cool significantly. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range with cooler values inland and warmer temperatures near the coast. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s inland just after the frontal passage to the low 50s by the end of the week with coastal locations in the upper 40s to low 50s early in the forecast period to low 50s to low 60s by the end of next week. Winds will remain breezy, particularly in the afternoons depending upon the eventual track of the offshore nor'easter.
07z Saturday through Wednesday Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.
Southwest winds this evening will flip around to the northwest, then north, this morning as a cold front moves through. Winds are expected to become gusty fairly quickly in the wake of the passage of the front. Additionally, CIGs will quickly lower, bottoming out at IFR for a time later this morning into the afternoon. Eventually some drier air working in should help to raise CIGs to MVFR, or even low VFR, especially at KISO and KPGV. The low CIGs will be accompanied by areas of light to moderate RA with MVFR VIS at times. Some heavier rain may develop with IFR VIS, but that is a lower confidence scenario.
Regarding post-frontal winds, it will be breezy with 20-30kt gusts expected at times, especially this afternoon/evening onwards. Gusts to 35kt will be possible at KMRH.
Outlook (Sat night through Mon): Clearing skies Sat night from west to east but winds and wind gusts will remain elevated as nor'easter lingers offshore. Confidence in the eventual route of the nor'easter remains uncertain at this time and this will likely have some influence on the aviation forecast through much of next week. More details will become available as confidence increases.
Latest obs show winds beginning to pick up offshore with sustained values of 10-20 kts gusting 15-30 kts. Seas are 3-5 ft, expected to quickly rise in the wake of a cold front moving through the region. Behind the cold front, a quick shift to gusty NW/N winds is also expected. A nor'easter is expected to develop later today along the cold front offshore, which will linger offshore well into next week bringing a long duration of very dangerous marine conditions. Storm Warnings are in effect for outer coastal waters from Surf City to Oregon Inlet, with forecast calling for wind gusts of 50+ knots along the Gulf Stream. Closer to the coast, brief periods of storm force gusts are possible this afternoon behind the cold front, especially in the eastern Pamlico Sound, and coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet. This brief surge should then settle to bring high end gale force gusts of 40-45 knots for a while. Today, seas increase to become 5-11 ft in the 0-20nm zones, 10-15 ft in the offshore zones. Further increases in waves expected Sunday onwards.
Outlook (Sun through Tues): Wave periods will peak around 13-15s Sunday and Monday as waves build to 7-15 ft in the 0-20nm zones and 15-25 ft in the 20-60 nm zones. These hazardous conditions are expected to continue into next week, although the eventual end time is still uncertain.
Nc, wind advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm EDT Monday for ncz047-081-195. Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm this evening to 5 pm EDT Monday for ncz094-194. Coastal flood advisory from 6 am Sunday to 11 am EDT Monday for ncz195-199. Beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz196-203>205. Wind advisory from noon today to 8 pm EDT Monday for ncz196- 203>205. Coastal flood advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 pm EDT Monday for ncz196. High surf advisory from midnight tonight to 8 pm EDT Monday for ncz196-204. High surf advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am EDT Tuesday for ncz203-205. Coastal flood advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am EDT Tuesday for ncz203. Coastal flood warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am EDT Tuesday for ncz204-205. Marine, gale warning from 10 am this morning to 6 am EDT Wednesday for amz131-150-180-230-231. Gale warning from noon today to 6 am EDT Wednesday for amz135- 152-154. Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 3 am EDT Tuesday for amz136-137. Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz156-158. Storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 am EDT Monday for amz182-184-186-188.
