Key MESSAGE 1, Latest surface analysis shows a large and strengthening low pressure system lifting towards the Mid- Atlantic coast this afternoon. Overall, very little change in forecast thinking. Wrap around moisture could bring light rain at times to the Outer Banks, though best rain chances will remain offshore. Below normal temps will continue tonight into Sat.
By far, the greatest impacts with this Nor'easter remain across the Outer Banks, with coastal flooding, dangerous surf, beach erosion and rip currents. Winds have trended downward and will plan to cancel the Wind Advisory, though will still remain breezy tonight. Wave runup continues to be the main concern with the threat for minor to locally moderate and significant ocean overwash along portions of Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Seas remain at 10-16 ft about 13-14 seconds. While seas have peaked, they will be slow to subside, so expect another round of ocean overwash with this evenings high tide (around 7 pm) and likely again Sat morning (around 730 AM). Extended CF Warnings and Advisories into Sat morning. Portions of NC 12 on Hatteras and Ocracoke Island remain closed. A High Surf Advisory Remains in effect through Saturday evening. Outer Banks soundside water levels continue to recede with grad weakening northerly winds, though could still see minor inundation into tonight. Minor inundation may continue for Downeast Carteret into tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2, As the low shifts to New England and eventually weakens, sfc high and ridging aloft builds into ENC early next week. This will bring lighter winds, sunshine, and warmer weather back to the region. Of note, despite the warming weather, dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 50s into midweek next week, making for more comfortable conditions despite highs warming up into the mid to upper 80s. Slightly higher dewpoints into the 60s look to return closer to the end of next week.
00z Saturday through Wednesday All terminals reporting VFR flight cats with lower CIGs ~FL040 over OBX. Expect VFR conditions to continue overnight. One caveat though, OAJ has already decoupled and with stout cooling on deck, development of fog can't be ruled out. Have issued a COR TAF for OAJ with an MVFR TEMPO group to cover this possibility. Vfr persists through the day SAT with N-NWerly breeze with some gustiness in the afternoon, but nothing as strong as we've seen over the last few days. Skc likely over SWern zones with debris clouds from the Nor'easter remaining over NEern zones.
Outlook: Pred VFR expected through the period, with mostly dry conditions.
Diamond Shoals just fell below 30kt gusts, and have therefore dropped the Gale warning for the coastal water zone S of CapeHatt slightly earlier and replaced with a new SCA. Remaining Gale warning end times have been adjusted based on new wind forecast blending in some of the 18Z HiRes suite.
Previous Disco, Latest obs show N winds 15-25 kt near the coast, and 20-30 kt gusting 30-35 kt across the coastal waters, with seas 10-18 ft north of Hatteras and 5-13 ft south. Made some adjustments to the ongoing marine headlines. Gale Warnings continue north of Ocracoke, SCAs south of Ocracoke and the sounds. While winds and seas have peaked they will be slow to ease from south to north tonight and Sat. N-NW winds will cont Sat, strongest north of Ocracoke.
Outlook: Hazardous marine conditions are forecast to last into the weekend, especially for the coastal waters as seas remain elevated. However, winds should gradually lay down over the weekend as the low pulls away and a high builds in with more benign boating conditions forecast by early next week. These benign boating conditions remain in place into midweek next week.
Nc, beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for ncz196-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 11 am EDT Saturday for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT Saturday for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until 11 am EDT Saturday for ncz204-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT Saturday for amz131-230. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Saturday for amz135-231. Gale warning until 4 pm EDT Saturday for amz150-182. Gale warning until 6 am EDT Saturday for amz152. Small craft advisory until noon EDT Sunday for amz154. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for amz156-158. Gale warning until 7 pm EDT Saturday for amz180. Gale warning until 2 am EDT Saturday for amz184.
