Key message 1,
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected along the southern half of the US 17 corridor. As the afternoon progresses convective activity should progress further inland with the sea breeze. Coverage and intensity should be fairly limited and like yesterday, expect this activity to diminish as sunset approaches. Otherwise the synoptic and longer term outlook below still applies.
An upper ridge and Bermuda high pressure will be centered off the coast through Saturday with mainly isolated shower and thunderstorm chances during the afternoon, mainly along the sea breeze. The ridge becomes suppressed late in the weekend as shortwave energy pushes across the mid-Atlantic with more of a zonal pattern developing next week with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area. Precip chances will be near climo each day with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon, then dissipating with loss of heating during the evening. The severe threat appears minimal through the period with limited shear.
A gradual warming trend will continue into next week as well with highs in the lower 90s inland through the weekend, then warming in to the mid 90s next week. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat Risk increase to around 60-80% Monday through Thursday of next week.
18z Friday through Wednesday AMD NOT SKED continues to be appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing FAA comms issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. Nkt is the closest ASOS. Ewn is able to be dialed into to receive METARs.
This afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to continue in the vicinity of OAJ and EWN for the next few hours. As the afternoon progresses expect convection to move inland towards ISO and PGV. Coverage to the north may be limited however. Outside of convection, VFR conditions prevail with southerly winds calming overnight. Models this afternoon are less bullish with stratus overnight. While still a possibility, have left it out of the TAFs at this time until confidence increases.
Outlook (Saturday through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning.
No changes to the marine forecast this afternoon.
Bermuda high will persist off the coast into next week bringing S to SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening as temps warm inland, bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times. Seas will continue around 2-4 ft.
Minimal shower and thunderstorm chances into Saturday, then chances increase Saturday night early next week as a trough of low pressure rotates around the Bermuda High and a series of shortwaves push across the waters.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
