Key MESSAGE 1, A dry cold front is currently working its way through ENC and should push offshore within the next few hours. This front is noted by a wind shift to the NE and breezy conditions behind the front especially along the OBX where gusts of 25-35 mph are noted. Otherwise the shield of cirrus that has stubbornly stuck around the area remains as dry air aloft has yet to work its way into the Carolinas. Either way, this has muted highs somewhat with high temps today getting into the low to mid 60s across ENC. Temps have likely reached their max for today and we should see a steady cooling trend into tonight. Lows tonight will get into the upper 30s to low 40s and while this would usually bring a low end threat for some patchy frost across the western coastal plain given the forecasted lows, we remain well mixed enough (so windy enough) to preclude any frost threat tonight.
As this front continues south, expect a low pressure system currently located in the Gulf to ride Eneward along this boundary tomorrow. At the same time, a strong high pressure ridge will build into the Northeast. The combination of the strong high and departing front/low will bring a rather strong pressure gradient to the area bringing cool NEerly winds to ENC. Latest trends in guidance have lowered max wind gusts slightly across the region but it will still be breezy. While we will likely have borderline wind advisory criteria along the Core Banks and portions of southern Ocracoke Island near the town itself, confidence was not high enough to include a wind advisory on this update for tonight as we may remain just below advisory thresholds. Regardless of this, it will still be very breezy tonight across the OBX to Downeast Carteret County with max gusts around 35-40 mph possible. Given the direction of the winds this will bring a relatively cool maritime airmass over ENC keeping temps below avg on Wed as high temps only get into the mid 50s to low 60s on Wed.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The strong NE'rly winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore will further build long period swell that will approach the coast and lead to building seas tonight into Wed night. This swell could lead to wave runup concerns and ocean overwash at particularly vulnerable locations along the OBX coast from Oregon Inlet S through Cape Lookout starting Wednesday. Given the latest forecast guidance and marginal nature of the overwash threat as of right now, have elected to just issue a high surf advisory for the beaches between Oregon Inlet down to Cape Lookout starting midday Wed and going into midday Thurs. For the high surf advisory there will be the potential for breaking waves around 8 ft along the affected beaches. As mentioned above, this could lead to some minor ocean overwash due to wave runup. While no coastal flood advisory has been issued yet, we are monitoring the potential for this and if the threat increases one may become necessary in future updates. While guidance has trended slightly more optimistic with seas over the next few days, there is still is some uncertainty with how long the longer period swell persists. This could result in a longer duration high surf advisory and the inclusion of a coastal flood advisory if the more pessimistic guidance plays out.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Mid to late week, the aforementioned low pressure system tracks out into the open waters of the Atlantic departing from the area and allowing winds to ease from Thursday into the end of the week. Some global guidance solutions suggest some subtle coastal troughing developing across the Carolina Coast Thu. Though will note, recent trends have begun to back off this idea and PoP's have lowered as compared to the previous update. For now we have at least a SChc of light offshore showers skirting the coast from Oregon Inlet S through the Crystal Coast Thurs afternoon. Building low level thicknesses through the end of the work week allows warming temps despite the light NEerly flow regime, upper 60s THU, mid 70s FRI. Sun afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the Mid- Atlantic coast, veering local winds more E'rly Sun and then becoming S'rly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs into the upper 80s at the end of the forecast period (next Tue).
00z Wednesday through Sunday A post-frontal north to northeast flow is now well established across ENC. Within this flow, winds are expected to be occasionally gusty at times this evening and tonight, especially along the Outer Banks and as far inland as KEWN to KOAJ. Then, during the day Wednesday, gusty winds are expected areawide. For most terminals, gusts of 20-25kt are expected. For runways along the immediate coast, gusts as high as 25-35kt are expected.
A plume of high clouds will continue to stream over the area through tonight. A brief period of clearing is expected on Wednesday. This may be short-lived, though, as guidance suggests low clouds may develop offshore and migrate inland by Wednesday evening. For now, the TAFs will show VFR conditions through Wednesday afternoon. Should sub-VFR CIGs develop, it looks like it would be after 00z/Thursday.
Outlook: Low VFR or MVFR CIGs are possible Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. After improvement during the day Thursday, a risk of sub-VFR conditions may once again develop Thursday night, this time due to BR/FG.
Cold front is tracking through the area this afternoon and marine conditions are deteriorating rapidly across ENC. Have already seen SCA criteria winds across the northern sounds and rivers as well as the coastal waters as N'rly breezes have increased to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts behind the front while just south of the front slightly weaker winds persist. Seas have yet to respond significantly to the elevated winds with coastal waters showing 3-5 ft seas as of this update. Either way, forecast thinking has not changed as conditions will continue to deteriorate tonight with winds becoming NE'rly across all waters at 20-30 kts and gusts to 30-40 kts, while seas build to 7-11 ft at 8-10 sec across the coastal waters with wind waves on top of it. Highest seas over the Gulf Stream where swell direction will oppose the current. This will bring a mix of small craft and gale force conditions to our waters. These elevated winds and seas will continue into Wed morning before gradually easing as NE'rly winds lower to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-35 kts. Seas will continue to remain elevated at 7-11ft with periods increasing further closer to 9-10 sec. This will bring and end to the gales across the Pamlico Sound and central waters by Wed evening, though gales will likely persist across our southern waters into Wed night. Sca's across all other waters will also remain in place as well into Wed night.
Outlook: Elevated winds and seas will continue into Wed night with winds easing by Thurs morning across our waters thus ending SCA conditions across our inland waters and the last of the gales by Thurs morning. Seas however remain at 6+ ft into the weekend thus keeping SCA conditions across our coastal waters into this weekend.
Nc, high surf advisory from noon Wednesday to 11 am EDT Thursday for ncz196-204-205. Beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT Wednesday for amz131-230- 231. Gale warning until 3 pm EDT Wednesday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Wednesday for amz136. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Thursday for amz137. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Saturday for amz150. Gale warning until 6 pm EDT Wednesday for amz152-154. Gale warning until midnight EDT Wednesday night for amz156-158.
