Key MESSAGE 1, Bulk of the area will see cooler temps through the day today thanks to cloud coverage and rain. A small heat advisory is in place for Duplin and Onslow Counties where the likelihood of the Sun peaking through debris clouds from last night's and today's convection will be the highest. Appt values in excess of 105deg are possible in these zones for a few hours from mid- day to early afternoon before another round of showers and storms develops. While cooler, AppTs will still be in the upper 90s for areas along and N of the front, mainly N of HWY 70. Tue and WED, MaxTs climb back into the low to mid 90s for most with less cloudiness on deck. Afternoon Tds approaching 80deg with these temps will bring heat headlines back into play.
KEY MESSAGE 2, There are several factors expected to support an increasingly active pattern into next week.
The stalled boundary, persistent inland troughing, and plenty of moisture influx from the S and SW will keep cloudy and active forecast in place. Fortunately, the mid and upper level trough over NECONUS will be pushing offshore, ending the little mid and upper level dynamic support system for organized convection. A fair amount of cloud coverage will dampen heating from what we have experienced over the weekend when 4-6kJ/kg SBCAPEs were realized almost every afternoon and evening, but we'll still get into the 2-4kJ/kg range, which is nothing to scoff at. Iso strong storms with damaging wind gusts will be possible. Pwats still greater than 2in will keep threat for heavy rain which could lead to localized flooding in place through tonight. Tonight, the boundary lifts back N, "warm- sectoring" the FA once again for TUE and WED.
TUE features slight dip in available moisture with drier 850-700mb layer getting pushed up the SECONUS coast ahead of the next upper trough pushes SE across the OH River valley, leading to more typical summer-time PoPs of 20-40% through TUE night.
A stronger front is forecast to approach and cross the area late WED into THU, posing the next threat for severe weather later in the forecast period. Upper level pattern for this FROPA appears more supportive of stronger storms with a sharper trough aloft digging further S than this weekend's trough. Moisture increases ahead of this front with low to midlevel flow opening up moisture advection channel from the E side of what is now Tropical Depression 2. The National Hurricane Center continues issuing advisories for TD2, but poses no tropical threat to ENC at this time, as it is forecast to meander slowly W across the Nern Gulf of America.
KEY MESSAGE 3, WED/THU stronger front is forecast to make it through the entirety of the land area of ENC, but still stall offshore. This will lead to mostly N-NEerly flow late week into the weekend, cutting down on the heat (mid to upper 80s/upper 60s splits into the weekend). Severe threat appears minimal behind the midweek front, but the multi day period of showers in the forecast could lead to hydro issues.
06z Monday through Friday Predominantly VFR conditions in place across area terminals but still some waning convection all around the eastern half of NC will keep spotty storm based subVFR flight cats around for a few more hours. Near term threats are highest for EWN and PGV. Guidance still suggesting post- frontal low stratus development overnight starting around 08-09z, although placement of the boundary at this time is uncertain. Most likely terminals to see MVFR are inland (ISO and PGV) but may stretch as far south as DPL, with low (20%) odds of seeing IFR. Some locally dense fog is also possible given likely light winds, but higher odds for this are north of the NC/VA border where skies will be clearer.
VFR expected to return by late this morning. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected again this afternoon and tonight, with potential for iso stronger storms producing gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Outlook (Monday night through Friday): Boundary lifts back N toward VA tonight improving low level mixing with an increasing SWerly breeze and end to rain threat. More climo PoPs TUE keeping VFR probs higher. A stronger front approaches late WED, renewing stronger shower and thunderstorm chances WED into THU. This front will stall offshore where it will linger into the weekend, keeping rain and subVFR flight cat threat up.
Latest surface and buoy obs indicate SW winds 10-20 kt gusting 20-30 kt, strongest over the Gulf Stream, with seas 1-3 ft north of Hatteras and 4-7 ft south. Scas continue for nearshore coastal waters, and have been extended until noon with seas remaining elevated with persistent SW winds to the S of the boundary. N of the boundary, much calmer conditions in place with winds AoB 10kt out of the NE-E. Seas grad subsiding to 3-5 ft Monday morning. As winds come down.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected across the waters through Monday. Sct strong to severe storms likely with damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and freq lightning.
Outlook (Monday night through Friday): For the outer waters, elevated winds and seas may last for much of the week. A stronger front is forecast to approach and cross regional waters mid to late week, bringing another round of strengthening SW winds and tstorm chances, mainly later Tue and Wed. Sca conditions likely to develop later Tue cont into Wed night.
Nc, heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm EDT this evening for ncz090-198-199. Marine, small craft advisory until 12 pm EDT early this morning for amz152-154-156-158.
