Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1002 pm EDT Sun aug 14 2022

Synopsis

An unsettled pattern will develop Monday and continue through much of the week as several impulses moves through broad cyclonic flow across the eastern US.

Near Term

Until 6 am Monday morning As of 10 PM Sun, Overall made some minor adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints as dewpoints have risen slightly quicker than previously forecast and temps have dropped slightly quicker across our inland zones. Regardless the general forecast remains on track as our anonymously dry airmass begins to exit the FA tonight with the return of 60+ F Td's and PW values above 1 inch. Though Td's will hold steady in the 60s this evening across the CWA, PW values are forecast to continue to rise tonight likely reaching 1.5+ inches by Monday morning. Shortwave trough and attendant low continue to approach from the NW this evening with widespread cloudcover noted across the area this evening via current satellite imagery. This cloudcover will continue to linger through the rest of the evening resulting in warmer temps tonight compared to the previous two evenings as lows are forecast to reach the mid to upper 60s. Though we are moistening up this evening, latest forecast sounding from this evenings upper air launch still shows considerable dry air and this is forecast to inhibit any precip across our FA until after 12z Monday.

Short Term

6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday As of 10 PM Sun, Shortwave energy continues to approach the area Monday with the attendant low moving into western NC late in the day. Could see a few showers work into western sections during the morning but with such a dry airmass across the region it will take a bit to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere and don't expect much qpf initially. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the afternoon as upper forcing improves and moisture increases. Storms will remain sub- severe with meager instability across the area. Forecasting highs in the low to mid 80s, warmest southern sections, but that may be a bit optimistic and will depend on the amount of insolation and precip realized.

Long Term

Monday night through Sunday As of 345 AM Sunday, The pattern changes Sunday night into Monday, with several rounds of storms possible Monday and Tuesday. High pressure returns more settled conditions mid week, with late week remaining uncertain. Monday night through Tuesday Night, Troughing over the eastern US continues, with the strongest of several shortwaves impacting the area late Monday into Tuesday morning. Falling heights will prompt the development of broad troughing across the SE, and gradual low level moistening. Convective activity could continue well into/through Monday night given strong forcing. Tuesday is dependent on the progress of the shortwave, with a departing shortwave resulting in subsidence aloft, or a lingering shortwave bringing another unsettled day. Continue above normal POPs for Tuesday, highest along the coast where instability is most likely to linger and weak coastal troughing or low pressure could develop. Temps several degrees below normal given ample cloud cover and below normal thickness values.

Midweek, Troughing/low pressure pushes further offshore midweek, with high pressure building in from the north and west and zonal flow aloft developing as an upper level lobe of low pressure energy dives S toward and over the Ohio River Valley, further broadening the trough centered about the upper low N of new England. Some shower activity could linger near the coast, but mostly dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with isolated diurnal convection possible. Weak CAA likely continuing the period of near to below normal temps Wed before warming a bit Thurs.

Late week into the weekend, Mid and upper level lows dive south leading to SWerly flow and strong moisture transport over the SE from Gulf of Mexico. Sfc low developing near the AL coast late Thurs begins pivoting to the NE and working up SE coastal areas, further amplifying low level moisture transport, allowing PWats to climb back to 2-2.5in. Precip chances increase again Friday into the weekend, but confidence in the strength and timing of this feature is currently low.

Aviation

02z Monday through Friday Through Monday As of 655 PM Sun, No significant changes to this update as VFR conditions are forecast to continue through this evening. Mid and high clouds continue to stream into the FA area from the west in association with an incoming shortwave trough and its associated developing surface low off to the NW. Will continue to see increasing mid and high clouds tonight with skies likely becoming BKN/OVC tonight with a few showers working into western sections during the morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through Mon afternoon which could bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Regardless of any sub-VFR conditions expect clouds to begin to lower down from around 7.5-10 kft in the morning to around 5-6 kft by Monday afternoon. Further reductions in ceilings are possible Monday night as well given the latest guidance.

Monday night through Friday As of 400 AM Sunday, Increasing low level moisture and chances for thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday could lead to some periods of sub-VFR conditions, but widespread/prolonged flight restrictions are not expected. Building high pressure brings improving flight conditions midweek.

Marine

Through Monday As of 4 PM Saturday, High pressure across the area gradually weakens through the short term with NE winds less than 15 kt gradually veering to E to SE Monday. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft.

Monday night through Friday As of 410 AM Sunday, Look for generally light winds, around 10 kt or less, early next week, with gusty conditions limited to nearshore with the development of the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft to start the week. Shower/tstorm activity increasing overnight Mon through Tuesday. Conditions deteriorate Wed into Thurs as a SFC low located off the Mid-Atlantic coast deepens as it lifts and approaches the New England coast and a weaker low drags behind it well offshore of NC. Nerly winds build to ~15g20kt upping seas to 3-5ft N, 2-4ft over Sern waters.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

Visit this site often? Consider supporting us with a $10 contribution.
Learn more