Key MESSAGE 1, Skies gradually clearing this morning as mid- level ridge centered over the southern plains builds eastward, shunting deeper moisture offshore. At the surface, weak high pressure is now in control with weekend front out of the picture, keeping winds light. With little change in moisture from yesterday, expecting another round of fog and low stratus especially west of Highway 17. Some periods of locally dense fog are possible early this AM.
With ridge shifting overhead increasing mid-level subsidence, the risk of more widespread convection will largely be quashed. Sea and sound breeze activity today may spark a short lived shower or storm in the afternoon, but otherwise area will remain dry as highs climb back into the 90s.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Ridging aloft builds further early this week and peaks over the area Wednesday and Thursday with H85 temps around 21-22C leading to temps well in the 90s most areas away from the immediate coast. Heat headlines may be needed Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly lingering into Friday with forecast heat indices climbing above 105 each day, especially inland areas and along the coast south of US70. Some locations may approach record high temperature values mid week and have included the current record values in the CLIMATE section below.
Subsidence aloft will limit thunderstorm activity for much of the week with only isolated afternoon convection along the sea breeze at best, but most areas are expected to remain dry through Thursday. The ridge begins to retreat westward late in the week which NW flow developing aloft bringing the potential for MCV's diving from the Mid-West across the area, possibly as early as Thursday night but more likely late Friday into the weekend. Still plenty of details to sort out, but AI NWP guidance suggests the pattern during this time will be at least marginally favorable for strong to severe storms.
12z Monday through Friday # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #
Low stratus and fog did form overnight but largely stayed west of TAF terminals, focused in a line from roughly ASJ to GWW. Outside of some brief transient drops to IFR to LIFR, most terminals ended up staying VFR. Some brief restrictions are possible through 12z, but otherwise VFR conditions expected to extend into the period.
With ridge building overhead expect far more isolated shower and thunderstorm coverage, largely confined to sea and sound breezes. Only TAF terminal that may be threatened by this is OAJ, but confidence is too low to include in forecast at this time.
Outlook: Benign flying conditions expected for the work week as ridge remains in control aloft. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be limited to none until late week when another front approaches area terminals.
Very quiet boating conditions in place early this morning as weak high pressure is in control. Winds are variable at around 5 kt with seas at around 2 feet. Expect very little change to this through the morning hours with a uptick in winds to 5-10 kt this afternoon as sea and sound breezes become dominant.
Outlook: Benign boating conditions extend into the week as high pressure remains in control. Although SCA conditions are not expected, with building heat inland thermal gradient winds out of the SW will return starting mid- week each afternoon and evening at 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20-25 kt possible. Another front approaches waters next weekend with a low risk of SCA conditions but an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
