A cold front will stall over the area tonight. The front will lift back north as a warm front on Friday, then shift back south as a cold front Friday night. An area of low pressure will develop along the front Saturday, then move away from shore by Sunday. High pressure then builds back in by early next week.
Tonight As of 635 PM Thursday,
Key Messages
- Near to slightly above normal temperatures through Friday
A potent shortwave moving through the Northeast U.S. Will continue to push a cold front south through Virginia today, eventually reaching NE NC by this evening. By that time, the stronger frontal forcing will be shifting away from the Mid- Atlantic, which should lead to the front slowing down as it moves into ENC. In fact, most guidance now suggests the front won't make it entirely through ENC tonight.
A fast-moving shortwave will translate east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region tonight, with a broad area of WAA developing to the south of it across the Carolinas. This should act to pull the above-mentioned front back north as a warm front tonight, with southerly return flow developing across ENC. When this front lifts back north will probably play a significant role in temps tonight. This may be one of those nights in which lows occur earlier in the night, followed by steady or slowly rising temps by sunrise.
Friday through Friday night As of 130 PM Thursday,
A downslope west to southwest flow will develop across the Carolinas on Friday as tonight's warm front continues to lift north into Virginia. This should set the stage for warmer highs on Friday compared to today. Many areas may reach 60 degrees, which is slightly above normal for early January.
A shortwave moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight should push the above-mentioned warm front back south into North Carolina as cold front Friday night. However, once again this front is expected to slow down as yet another shortwave approaches the region from the west. Increasing low-mid level frontogenesis is expected to develop in advance of the approaching shortwave and an associated area of low pressure. This combined with increasing low-mid level moisture along the frontal zone may lead to very light rain developing after midnight Friday night. Precipitation amounts through Friday night look light due to a lack of better moisture initially. The better lift and moisture, and higher precip rates, hold off until after Friday night.
Saturday through Thursday As of 1345 Tuesday,
Key Messages,
- A coastal low will likely bring rain to much of ENC this weekend Saturday, A shortwave trough and its associated surface low will dig into the southern Plains Friday before traversing eastward across the Southeast on Saturday. A weak surface low will strengthen along the stalled boundary along/just south of the Crystal Coast Saturday into Saturday night before pushing offshore Sunday. This will bring the next round of rainfall to ENC Saturday Saturday night. The latest suite of 06z 2z guidance has trended a bit weaker with this low, and near or slightly south of the previous track. Because of this, guidance has also generally trended a bit drier. Temps are forecast to remain seasonable (highs in the 50s) ahead of the low on Saturday.
Sunday/Monday, Rain chances drop off Sunday morning as the low pulls offshore. High pressure building into the region will bring clearing skies and slightly cooler temps, with highs near 50 Sunday/Monday.
Tuesday/Wednesday, High pressure shifts offshore early to mid next week. In response, winds swing to southwesterly, which will allow temps to climb well into the 50s Tuesday and low-to-mid 60s Wednesday.
00z Friday through Tuesday As of 635 PM Thurs, Pred VFR conditions will prevail across ENC through Friday. Light and variable winds are forecast tonight as a stalling front weakens and eventually lifts north as a warm front. This should allow for just some high stratus this evening before skies clear. Some Hi-Res guidance such as the HREF has hinted that as the stalling front lifts north as a warm front late tonight, there could be some ground fog, mainly along our northern tier after 06Z. However, HREF probs are generally 20% or less here and NBM probs are even lower. So while it is a non zero chance, not expecting fog development tonight as we remain fairly dry but can't completely rule out some ground fog. Either way, it would not be impactful to operations regardless. As we get into Friday, winds will become SW'rly as WAA overtakes ENC, persisting at about 5-10 kts with an increase in high clouds in the afternoon.
Outlook: Pred VFR conditions are expected to continue through Fri night. However, expect high clouds to gradually lower through the night Fri with the approach of a low pressure system located to the SW. This low then moves up the coast Sat and will bring increased chances for rain and sub-VFR conditions Saturday morning - Saturday night.
As of 130 PM Thursday,
Key Messages,
- Risk of hazardous conditions for small craft to decrease by early this evening
- Low pressure traversing along the coastline Saturday/Sunday brings another round of elevated winds and seas
A cold front will dip south into the ENC waters this afternoon, but is expected to slow down and weaken. Due to the weakening nature of the front, the risk of 25kt+ winds should steadily decrease later today, even with the front moving in. The front then lifts back north as a warm front on Friday, with breezy south to southwesterly flow developing. Over the warmer central and southern waters, occasional gusts to 25kt will be possible during this time. The duration doesn't appear long enough to warrant headlines, but this potential will continue to be monitored. The warm front then dips back south into the area Friday night, with an associated northerly wind shift.
Seas of 3-6ft this afternoon will lay down to 2-4ft by tonight, and generally remain in that range through Friday night. The one exception is the warmer near-Gulf Stream waters where seas may rebuild to 3-5ft on Friday as southwesterly winds build.
Saturday/Sunday, Weak low pressure works eastward across the Southeastern US before strengthening along/just south of the ENC coastline Saturday into Saturday night before pulling offshore Sunday. Expecting elevated winds and seas along with rain across area waters, with SCA conditions likely developing Saturday evening. Of note, recent guidance has trended a bit weaker and near or slightly south of the previous track. For winds, this doesn't lead to a big change, but it could slightly lower the risk of gales south of Cape Hatteras. High pressure then builds back late Sunday as conditions begin to improve.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
