Key MESSAGE 1, Quasi stationary high pres sprawling across the Mid- Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will result in cont northeasterly flow across the region today. The high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to additional minor coastal flooding impacts on the OBX.
Minor coastal flooding of vulnerable locations still possible through today with "sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of coastal ENC around times of high tide. Coastal flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle today to account for these elevated water levels.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Hts/thicknesses build further to round out the week and temps climbing back to ~10 degrees above climo with highs upr 70s to near 80 inland to low 70s OBX through Friday. A reinforcing back door cool front will bring temps down closer to climo (low 70s most locales) on Sunday. Low temps will also remain above normal through much of the period with readings in the 50s. Normal lows for most of the FA are in the 45-50 range now.
KEY MESSAGE 3, High pres ridge finally begins to break down by Tuesday and esp Wednesday as next potential low pres area and cold front make it's way into the region on active sub tropical jet. Still timing differences on latest 29/00Z model suite, but it appears this system could bring beneficial widespread rain to the area. For now, due to timing differences, pops are in the 30-40% range at this time for the mid week period.
06z Thursday through Monday Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.
A moist easterly flow, plus weak low-level lift, appears to be what is supporting SCT to BKN MVFR/VFR level clouds and SCT -SHRA. The SHRA should decrease in coverage overnight, but the expectation is that low CIGs will remain a potential impact. Like last night, there is some uncertainty regarding stratus vs FG. However, the signal for stratus appears to be stronger tonight, and the TAFs reflect this. The greatest risk of a longer period of IFR, or lower, conditions is at KISO and KPGV, with a modest risk at KOAJ and KEWN. At KMRH, the risk of IFR, or lower, conditions appears the lowest. Low clouds are likely to linger into the day Thursday, but heights should gradually rise back to MVFR/VFR.
Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Expect VFR conditions to continue during the daytime through at least Sun with quasi- stationary high pres over the region. Coastal sections could see ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic, as well as bouts of overnight fg and low stratus inland with winds quite calm the next several nights.
Currently seeing E to NE winds around 10-20 kt across the waters with gust around 25-30 kt near the Gulf Stream, and seas around 5 to 7 ft. Buoys east of Nags Head reporting 6 ft seas, so have added the waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet to the SCA through tonight. Sca continues through Thursday evening south of Oregon Inlet as it will take a while longer for seas to subside near the Gulf Stream. Winds will gradually diminish tonight into Thursday.
Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Winds/seas diminish by Thu evening, though respite may be rather short-lived, as building seas are possible once again later in the weekend into early next week.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 2 pm EDT this afternoon for ncz195-196-199-203>205. Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until midnight EDT tonight for amz152-154- 156-158.
