Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

401 am EST Tue Jan 18 2022

Synopsis

High pressure will build over the area through Wednesday followed by a cold front moving through Thursday. A coastal trough or coastal storm may impact Eastern NC by week's end with a potential for significant wintry weather.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 330 AM Tuesday, High pressure will build in from the west today with sunny skies prevailing across the area. Wly winds will continue to slacken as the high builds in. Temps will be below normal with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Short Term

Tonight As of 330 AM Tuesday, High pressure will be centered over the region in the evening, then will begin to slide offshore after midnight. Mainly clear skies expected through the evening with increasing high clouds after midnight. Temps will fall quickly into the 30s after sunset with overnight lows in the upper 20s inland and low to mid 30s along the coast.

Long Term

Wednesday through Monday As of 330 AM Tue, High pressure returns through mid week. Another cold front will pass through on Thursday and stall just off the Southeastern Seaboard. Low pressure will form along the front and move northeastward off the Carolina coast. This will bring a threat for significant ice and sleet across a good portion of Eastern NC away from the immediate coast.

Wednesday, Sfc high shifts offshore and hts/thicknesses rise with swrly flow ensuing, leading to temps above climo with highs generally around 60. Wed night will continue mild with area still in warm sector well east of approaching cold front.

Thursday, A cold front will slowly pass through the region. Some model discrepancies continue, with ECM slower and more positively tilted with approaching trough to the west, therefore slower with frontal passage. Have cont the likely pops for nwrn tier, but kept chc everywhere else due to the timing differences.

Thursday night through Friday night, A high impact winter weather event appears to be unfolding this period, with a signal for potential significant icing for parts of ENC. The aforementioned sfc cold front will stall off of the Southeastern Seaboard this period. A wave of low pres develops along this boundary Thur night. 18/00z global models indicating a frontal inversion developing over ENC Thu night and into Fri, and with most guidance indicating 850 mb temps above freezing, limiting the chances for snow (GFS is colder aloft and indicating some snow, though a known bias of the GFS is cold thermal profiles aloft). With sfc temps at or below freezing, the threat for a prolonged period of ice/sleet will come into play, as upper flow will be nearly parallel to the frontal boundary. Ecmwf/cmc continue to be especially concerning, indicating significant freezing rain totals across much of the Coastal Plain counties. Gfs is now catching on to this scenario as well for the swrn counties as it has trended further north with the warm nose with this latest cycle.

Relied heavily on raw model T's for temp forecast, as MOS guidance is much too warm with sfc T's in strong frontal inversion/CAD events. Most of the FA along and west of a Jacksonville to Plymouth line will not get above freezing on Friday, and far wrn counties will remain in the 20s. This does not bode well for ice accretion, which would be efficient and significant with these temperatures.

Friday morning, there may be a period of freezing rain or sleet as far east as the Crystal coast and the Columbia area, but a strengthening NE wind should bring a maritime airmass in and change over to rain by afternoon with temps rising above freezing.

Friday night, the aforementioned low will be moving northeastward off the NC coast. How close to the coast the low moves will dictate if a warmer push moves further inland, like the ECMWF is indicating, as it is nearest the NC coast. For now, have split the difference and blended ECMWF/CMC, keeping the freezing rain or sleet threat ongoing for interior zones. By late night, the low will be moving away from the coast and CAA will ensue. A changeover to some snow showers may occur as far east as the coastal counties before precip ends, but should be trivial as moisture is quickly waning.

Saturday through Monday, Drier air finally filters in with passage of slow- moving positive tilt upper trough, and temps will remain below climo with longwave troughing continuing across the eastern half of the CONUS. Highs generally 35-45 with lows in the low 20s interior to 30s coast.

Aviation

09z Tuesday through Saturday Through tonight As of 3 AM Tuesday, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with clear skies dominating through this evening followed by increasing high clouds after midnight. Wly winds will continue to diminish as high pressure builds in. Could see a few gusts to around 15 kt at the TAF sites this morning but winds will generally be 10 kt or less.

Wednesday through Saturday As of 330 AM Tue, VFR conditions persist through Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west. A cold front will move through Thu and Thu night with rain and the potential for sub- VFR conditions. Widespread wintry precipitation mostly in the form of freezing rain and sleet is becoming a big threat Friday and continued sub VFR conditions are expected. Low pressure will pull away by Sat with return to VFR.

Marine

Through tonight As of 330 AM Tuesday, High pressure builds into the region through the short term with w to nwly winds diminishing quickly through the morning hours to around 15 kt or less this afternoon. Winds become 10 kt or less tonight as the high begins to slide offshore. Seas around 5-9 ft this morning will subside to 2-5 ft this afternoon and 1-3 ft tonight.

Have dropped the Gales from the sounds but will continue across the coastal waters for the next few hours as buoys across the outer portions of the waters still seeing gusts up to 40 kt. Have also dropped the SCA for the rivers as winds have diminished below 25 kt here. Conditions expected to drop below SCA criteria for all waters by mid afternoon.

Wednesday through Saturday As of 330 AM Tue, Winds veer swrly on Wed as high pres shifts offshore, though speeds only 5-15 kt expected, with perhaps some 20 kt winds over the ctrl/srn warmer coastal waters. Strong cold front moves through by later Thu with winds becoming nrly and inc in speeds to 20-30 kt. May see period of gales develop by Friday depending on strength of a potential developing coastal storm.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 9 am EST this morning for amz135- 230-231. Gale warning until 6 am EST early this morning for amz150-152- 154-156-158.

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