Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure will continue to slide offshore today, persisting into next week. Once the high becomes established offshore SAT morning, S'rly flow sets up and allows for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA. As a result, a warming and drying trend is forecast into mid next week. Maxts today will climb into the upper 70s for the beaches and into the low/mid 80s inland. Temps will continue to warm into mid next week, with highs in the 90s inland and 80s for the beaches. While we will likely remain below record high temps this weekend and into early next week, we will be close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The next frontal system approaches the area late next week. Schc of precip WED afternoon and evening with increasing moisture possibly being enough to lead to some seabreeze activity. Still quite a bit of model spread in regard to timing and moisture available for FROPA this far out, but this will bring the next best chances for precip. Front currently forecast to cross late Thu into Fri. Cooler temps expected behind the front, returning to near climo.
12z Saturday through Wednesday VFR conditions likely through much of the TAF period with mid and high clouds in and out through today. Southerly winds today should get a bump up with the seabreeze as it develops and moves inland with gusts aoa 15 kt or so by afternoon.
Tonight, SW winds become light to calm, and lower levels moisten thanks to the return flow as high remains offshore. This may help produce low stratus early morning Sunday. Introduced FEW/SCT010 to TAFs with this issuance for Sunday morning, but a reasonable worst case scenario would be IFR/LIFR ceilings.
Outlook (Sunday through Tuesday): Continued moisture return in persistent southerly flow may lead to TEMPO periods of low CIGs/stratus over the weekend late at night into the early morning hours. Otherwise, a daily seabreeze is expected with occasionally gusty winds. With dry high pres in place, no convection is expected with chances below 10%. The next chance of showers or a few storms is Thursday.
Latest obs show light winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-4 ft. High pressure will continue to slide offshore today, with winds becoming SSW. Light SSW winds this morning will increase through the day, increasing to 10-20 kt late this afternoon and evening as thermal gradient strengthens, with seas 3-5 ft.
Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): Typical summertime pattern will continue along with mostly dry and warming forecast into mid week. Mostly S-SW winds through the period with high pressure offshore. Light to moderate SSW winds in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes. Seas generally remaining 2-4 ft.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
