Above normal temperatures dominate with mostly dry conditions for ENC through the rest of the week. A cold front will move through this weekend and bring chances for scattered showers. A return to colder and drier early next week.
Until 6 pm this evening As of 3 AM Wed, Mostly sunny and very warm today as a weak and dry cold front tracks across the area but brings westerly downsloping winds. Highs will reach the 70 degree mark for many, including the Crystal Coast due to the offshore wind flow, and 60s on the OBX with onshore westerly flow.
6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday As of 3 AM Wed, Quiet and mild tonight with temps cont above climo. Lows range from the upper 30s to lower 40s for most, with near 50 on the beaches and OBX. Backdoor cool front moves through with winds becoming northerly but remaining less than 5 mph or so.
Thursday through Tuesday As of 2 PM Tuesday,
Thursday through Friday, This fropa won`t bring much of a change in sensible weather as highs only drop a little bit, with readings in the 60s inland to 55-60 on the OBX. The boundary will quickly lift back north as a warm front and increase temps on Friday to the mid 70s across the coastal plain and 60s at the beaches.
Saturday through Sunday, Our next cold front will approach the area this weekend. Very light and spotty rain showers on Sat as weak prefrontal trough affects the coast, but most of the day will remain dry. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week ahead of the front on Saturday with highs in the mid to perhaps a few upper 70s across the coastal plain and 60s at the beaches. Front moves through on Sunday, but QPF remains light and showers more sct in nature, thus pops remain in the 30-40% range. Caa on Sunday with falling temps late in the day as front moves through in the afternoon.
Early next week, Cool but seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather is forecast for early next week behind the aforementioned front as an upper level trough moves overhead. But, overall no significant weather is currently forecast for this period.
12z Wednesday through Sunday As of 620 AM Wednesday,
Key Messages
- Chance for brief MVFR/IFR low stratus and fog early this morning
Predominantly VFR conditions anticipated with a brief period of MVFR to IFR conditions possible early this morning. High pressure remains offshore with southwesterly flow across the area. While winds are diminishing slightly across ENC, the low- levels will not completely east of hwy 17. West of hwy 17, a break in the clouds and better chances of decoupling will allow some shallow fog to form over the next 1-3 hours, until 9 AM. Href, which has been very bullish on an expansive low stratus deck, has backed off a bit with the 00Z run, with the time lag models incorporated into the 00Z run really the only ones showing the expansive stratus deck. With this in mind, I expect the low stratus to be more transient and scattered in nature, with shallow fog becoming more widespread west of hwy 17. Have continued backing off a bit on the low stratus messaging in this round of TAFs, but added vis reduction mentions to TAFs for the next couple hours. Later this morning into the afternoon, skies clear out and winds at 5-10 kt remain SW, becoming NW around 5 kt behind a dry cold front Wednesday night.
Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions expected beyond Wednesday as dry cold front moves through and high pressure builds in to end the work week into Saturday. Rain chances this weekend could bring reductions in flight categories.
As of 3 AM Wed,
Key Messages,
- Strong SCA winds and high seas on the Gulf Stream waters through this morning. - Improving conditions this afternoon into Thu as high pressure builds back in. - Another round of SCA conditions, esp on the Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet Friday into the weekend with approaching strong cold front. - Frontal passage on Sunday with ensuing cold advection gusty northwest winds all waters and sounds possible.
Today, Ongoing w to SW winds 20-30 kt on the mixed Gulf stream waters cont this morning. Stable marine layer tempering winds to 10-20 kt on the sounds and northern waters. Winds and seas diminish through this afternoon. Backdoor front tonight with winds becoming north but only 5-15 kt.
Thursday through Friday, High pressure will build back in on Thursday with 5-10 kt NE winds and 1-3 ft seas. Winds will veer to the S on Friday out ahead of the next approaching cold front and increase to 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-4 ft.
Saturday through Sunday, A strong cold front will approach this weekend, increasing S to SW winds and building seas to SCA levels on the warmer gulf waters.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until noon EST today for amz152-154-156. Small craft advisory until 10 am EST this morning for amz158.
