Key MESSAGE 1, Consider us underwhelmed by the overall progression of things these past 24 hours. Synoptically there has not been much change in the setup with several boxes already checked for the potential for heavy rainfall. This includes a deep warm cloud layer, ample moisture throughout the atmospheric column, and PWATs of greater than 2" which would typically point towards a heavy rain event across ENC. However, the continued trend depicting a lack of organized surface convergence/boundaries suggests more scattered activity which will be more progressive in nature thus lowering the heavy rainfall threat. As a result have cancelled the flood watch that was out for portions of ENC. While their will be periods of torrential downpours and heavy rainfall think the flooding risk has continued to trend down today and will be more isolated in nature.
As mentioned above there is little change in the synoptic setup as an upper level trough currently in the Tennessee River Valley has stalled across the area and will remain there into midweek before weakening and eventually getting absorbed by a passing northern stream trough Wed/Thurs. This should keep the moisture channel open from the Gulf into at least midweek as upper level S-SW'rly winds remain in place advecting moisture N'wards. This second trough should remain well enough to the north to preclude any impacts to the area later this week. At the same time we still expect a few shortwaves to transit around the base of this trough and lift north through the Carolinas this afternoon into tonight, Tues and potentially again on Wed. As the upper trough dissipates/gets absorbed later this week any mid level forcing does look to shift further inland away from ENC.
What does this mean for us as far as ambient weather goes through Wed? Stalled surface front to our west will move little before dissipating on Wed. Ongoing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this continue this afternoon with periods of even lower coverage this evening before the next shortwave transits across the area tonight into Tue morning bringing a renewed threat for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Given the trends, expect widespread rainfall amounts around 0.5-1.5" across ENC over the next 48 hours. Refs and HREF probs for greater than 2" of rainfall over a 48 hour period continue to go on the downtrend with chances now closer to 30-50%, thus lending credence to a lower flooding risk. While the flooding risk is lower than previously anticipated, that does not mean it is zero as any shower or storm will have a chance to produce rainfall rates of at least 1-2" an hour which could yield an isolated and localized threat for flooding in slower moving storms. Areas of concern appear to be along the Crystal Coast and along the OBX south of Oregon Inlet if this did occur.
We are now in a Marginal (level 1/4) Excessive Rain Outlook for today and tomorrow.
By the end of the week it looks like we return back to climo or below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or significant forcing will be noted across ENC. This will likely result in chances for showers and thunderstorms along the daily seabreeze but once again these chances should be isolated at best given the overall setup. After a cool start to the week given widespread cloudcover and rain as highs only get into the low to mid 80s and lows in the low 70s through Wed, we do begin to warm back up with temps returning to the upper 80s to low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX.
00z Tuesday through Saturday VFR conds are noted across ENC early this evening. Much like last night another round of low stratus appears likely with MVFR to IFR ceilings increasingly likely after about 06Z. Low stratus is forecast to remain in place until Tue morning before it lifts and MVFR to possibly finally VFR arrives sometime in the afternoon. Finally yet another round of scattered showers and some thunderstorms are possible Tue keeping elevated chances of at least TEMPO sub-VFR conditions in place.
Outlook (Tuesday night through Saturday): Periods of sub-VFR ceilings/vis are possible Wednesday with a chances for showers and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west. Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed and into the weekend as high pressure builds into the area.
Winds and seas have continued to ease today as a stalled front to our west has continued to weaken with high pressure ridging building into the area. Ongoing S-SW winds at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts are noted across the inland waters with 15-20 kt S-SW winds and gusts up to 25 kts noted across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet this afternoon. In addition to this seas of 4-7 ft are noted as well along the coastal waters. As a result all inland small crafts have ended with lingering small crafts noted along the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet this afternoon. As the aforementioned front gradually dissipates tonight into Tue and high pressure ridging builds further over the area, winds and seas will ease with winds falling to 5-10 kts out of the S-SW and seas falling to 2-5 ft by Tue afternoon ending any leftover SCA threat. Will note while winds and seas will decrease there will continue to be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across our waters through Tue.
Outlook (Tuesday night through Saturday): Expect more benign winds and seas for the period as high pressure remains the dominant feature across the region. Winds generally remain below 15 kts and seas persist around 2-4 ft into the weekend.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-204-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz152- 154. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz156-158.
