A strong cold front will move across the area tonight. Another reinforcing cold front moves through on Thursday, followed by yet another front on Friday. High pressure then builds in over the weekend and into next week.
Overnight As of 10 PM Wed, Cold front is now racing towards ENC this evening with this front currently stretching from NE to SW across the Triad vicinity and currently moving through Raleigh as of this update. Have several gusts in the 30-40 mph range as this front continues to make its way across NC. Given the fronts current speed, can expect these gusts to reach the western Coastal Plain within the next hour or so and then nearing the coast closer to the midnight to 1AM timeframe before pushing offshore. Expecting a brief period of widespread 30-40 mph NW'rly wind gusts behind this front across the Coastal Plain with slightly higher gusts possible near the coast and OBX. Once the front quickly moves through the area, winds will ease rather quickly as well with gusts falling closer to 15-20 mph about an hour after the front passes through. Otherwise outside of this, current forecast trends hold with scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two possible through about 1-2 AM across ENC out ahead of the front before it pushes offshore.
Prev Disc, Attention turns to strong arctic front which will blast through loudly tonight, as it will be accompanied by a short but strong burst of gusty winds. The front is currently moving through the TN Valley, and will be moving through the NC mtns early this evening, and then quickly across the state through ENC through the late evening hours. There will be sct to numerous showers along and just ahead of the front, but the big story will be the very gusty winds, and have inc winds as a result. Think that most places even inland will gust to 30-40 mph, and on the coast 35-45 mph as it passes through. Have relied heavily on the hourly HRRR for the fropa and associated winds and temps. These winds will be short lived and last a half hour or so at most but the temps will drop sharply in its wake, going from the 60s, then quickly into the 50s and 40s for their eventual lows by morning.
Thursday As of 3 PM Wed, High temps return to closer to normal and even slightly lower than climo, with readings in the upper 50s to around 60 for most. Blustery conditions with wrly winds of 10-15 gusting to around 20 mph.
Thursday night through Wednesday As of 3:20 AM Wednesday,
Thursday night - Saturday night, The next front will move through late Thursday afternoon and its CAA will send lows into the low to mid 30s across the coastal plain. Winds will remain strong enough to help minimize the threat for widespread frost/freeze impacts, but it's not out of the question for some sheltered areas to drop below freezing. Saturday will feel very similar to Thursday with highs struggling to exceed the 50s and breezy winds westerly winds.
Sunday - Tuesday, High pressure will develop over the southeastern US and extend up the mid-Atlantic coast. This will support a dry forecast and warming trend with high temperatures climbing from the upper 50s/low 60s on Sunday to the upper 60s/low 70s on Tuesday.
03z Thursday through Monday Through Thursday
As of 7 PM Wednesday,
- Strong cold front to bring gusty winds, SHRA, and sub-VFR conditions to ENC this evening
A wide range of VFR to LIFR conditions are currently over ENC this evening out ahead of a rapidly approaching front. Currently OAJ/EWN are VFR with ISO at LIFR conditions and PGV at MVFR conditions. General trend remains the same with any leftover VFR conditions quickly becoming MVFR and IFR across the region just out ahead of the approaching front with PGV/ISO maintaining MVFR/IFR ceilings/vis over the next few hours. The cold frontal passage will then be the main challenge tonight. Front is forecast to enter into the Coastal Plain around 02-04Z tonight and first impact PGV/ISO between 03-04Z followed by EWN/OAJ between 04-05Z before finally pushing offshore by 06Z. As the front tracks across the area winds will quickly shift from SW to NW and gust to as high as 25 to 30 kt for a brief period of time before gradually easing over the following several hours. In addition to this some cross wind issues mainly at ISO/EWN will be possible as the front tracks across these TAF sites with a strong NW'rly wind. Guidance suggests some heavier showers immediately with the front, and have opted to bring in temporary IFR conditions this evening. A few TSRA cannot be ruled out, but this risk appears low (<20% chance), and we'll continue to keep TSRA out of the TAFs for now due to the low risk. Behind the front, conditions should quickly become VFR while winds should decrease to around 10 kt by 12z. Some increase in W'rly wind gusts Thursday to 20kt.
Thursday night through Monday As of 4 AM Wednesday, Gusty winds will be the main aviation concern through the long term. With multiple fronts forecast to move across the area, westerly winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt will persist through Saturday. Winds will weaken to 5-10 kt on Sunday as high pressure begins to extend into the area.
Through Thu As of 3 PM Wed, S to SW winds of 10-15kt expected through early evening. Big story will be strong arctic front that will blast through the waters later this evening through early morning hours. The wind switch will be very dramatic, and increase out of the NW with a 35-40 kt gust(s) as the front passes through. Because the gusts are expected to be tied to the fropa, will not issue a gale warning because of the very brief nature of the winds lasting less than an hour, but instead handle with MWS's as the front nears the waters, which will be around midnight. Sca's remain in place for all coastal waters and inland rivers. Have ended the Neuse/Pamlico/Bay rivers a bit earlier, but later shifts will likely have to reissue these as winds come back up late afternoon or early eve Thu with reinforcing fropa.
Thursday night through Monday As of 4 AM Wednesday, Additional cold fronts on Thursday and Friday will generate unfavorable marine conditions that will persist through early Sunday morning.
Seas will be the highest early Thursday morning (6-7 ft) and late Friday night (6-7 ft) with a slight lull between these times.
A slight lull is expected during the afternoon, after which winds will become westerly and return to the same strength. Winds will peak on Friday at 25-30 kt with a few gusts to 35 kt. We continue to carry a strongly worded Small Craft Advisory for the central waters at this time, but a Gale Watch will be kept in mind.
Winds and seas will decrease through the day Saturday with all zones expected to be below SCA criteria by early Sunday.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for amz131-135-158-230-231. Small craft advisory until 8 am EST Thursday for amz136-137. Small craft advisory until 3 am EST Sunday for amz150-152-154- 156.
