Key MESSAGE 1, While wind and seas have come down, minor soundside flooding (1 ft or less) is still possible for mainly Downeast Carteret county through the next several high tide cycles. The high astronomical tides peak on Tuesday, and already high water levels due to last weeks wind event will keep water levels elevated mainly around the high tide cycles through the next couple days. Standing water on roadways, and in low lying or poor drainage areas, could have minor impacts for travellers in especially vulnerable areas prone to the tidal flooding. Elevated water levels will persist through Wednesday, but levels are not expected to be as high as they were the last several days.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Cool nights and warm days are the theme over the next several days as a dry air mass persists overhead. Mid to late week, upper level ridging is forecast to expand north and east from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast U.S. Coast. Warming low- level thicknesses and the eventual return deep layer sswrly flow will allow temps to soar above normal to close out September and welcome in October. Moisture and humidity will gradually return as well, but it doesn't look like a quick return. Overnight temps will cool to the low side of guidance, and have trended lower due to the dry air mass in place and light to calm wind each night. Areas in the swrn zones, as well as adjacent to the normal cold spots such as near the Croatan and Hoffman forests will be the coolest with mid-upper 50s expected tonight, then upper 50s to low 60s Tue night. High temps will begin to rise above climo tomorrow with mid 80s interior (upr 70s coast) then upper 80s to near 90 Wed-Thu (upr 70s/low 80s coast), with some low 90s to round out the work week.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Model differences on timing of the next system, but it appears a cold front and GOM moisture begin to impinge on the region either this weekend or early next week with the next chance of rain. For now, pops have been raised to no higher than 30-50% for this period of time.
18z Monday through Saturday Mainly SKC through the TAF pd. A few mid clouds may skirt KPGV through tonight, but otherwise clear skies and light/vbl winds are expected. There may be some MIFR again late tonight to just after sunrise for mainly KPGV and KEWN.
Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): Other than a nightly risk of MIFG/BR, it appears that a mostly quiet period for aviation is in the cards through the rest of the week.
Winds will be light and mainly erly through tonight and Tuesday. During the peak diurnal heating, winds come up a bit nearshore with speeds approaching 10 kt with some higher gusts, but otherwise good boating conditions and seas of 2-3 ft are expected.
Outlook (Tue through Sat): Great boating conditions continue mid to late week with light winds each day and seas of 2-3ft. The winds become mainly serly Wed night into Thu, then s to ssw Thu night through Fri, but speeds no higher than 5-10 kt with gusts no higher than 15 kt.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
