Key MESSAGE 1, Previously mentioned stalled frontal boundary is beginning to lift north this morning with some isolated showers and a rumble of thunder or two possible across the northern zones and OBX going into daybreak. Not expecting anything strong with this morning activity as anything that develops will be elevated in nature. As the front lifts north, light but steady S'rly flow is forecast to develop across ENC with temps remaining steady or gradually climbing into daybreak.
As we get into today, expect another hot day across ENC, though slightly less humid. Expecting highs to get into the mid to upper 90s across inland zones and low 90s along the coast and OBX. Dewpoints will remain in the 70s generally east of Hwy 17 as we mix rather efficiently across the NW'rn Coastal Plain allowing for dewpoints in the 60s here. Overall this will result in heat indices reaching 105-110F across Duplin County NE'wards to Dare County with heat indices closer to 95-104 to the north and west of these zones. As a result have kept the previously issued Heat Advisory in place with just the far NW'rn counties not in a heat advisory today. Drier conditions expected today and Friday with WSW flow aloft limited upper level forcing but could see isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours each day. Have kept SChc PoPs in the forecast today to account for this low end threat.
SW flow will bring increasing low level thicknesses, warming temperatures, and a High Heat Risk across the region on Friday with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s for coastal areas south of Oregon Inlet. Heat Indices are expected to climb to around 100-110 once again Fri afternoon generally in the same areas that are seeing heat advisories today so another heat advisory for Fri across portions of ENC can't be completely ruled out. There is some uncertainty with the dewpoint forecast Fri afternoon, especially inland, as some guidance brings deeper mixing allowing dewpoints to drop well into the 60s inland from the coast, which could keep heat indices from reaching advisory criteria. Temps have trended down slightly for Saturday with most of the area remaining in a Moderate Heat Risk.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An upper level trough/mid level shortwave and surface front approaching from the north and west this weekend will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday across ENC. Latest trends is for the front to approach our northern zones Saturday evening and push through the area Sun morning. This would act to bring best precip chances to ENC Sat afternoon and overnight with chances then waning through the day Sun from north to south. While instability has trended down, generally ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE Sat and 750-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE Sun, with greater upper level support and deep layer shear values closer to 25-30 kts this weekend across ENC, could see a few stronger storms this weekend.
06z Thursday through Monday A much quieter evening tonight as a stalled front over ENC has begun lifting north. There are some isolated showers/tstms noted along and to the north of this front across our northern zones and OBX but this activity is forecast to continue east through daybreak and push offshore soon. This activity is not anticipated to be strong but could bring some brief reductions in vis/ceilings to portions of the OBX and adjacent airports. Taf sites remain precip free through tonight. However, could see a mix of patchy fog and low stratus across inland zones and TAF sites into daybreak with a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions currently noted across ENC as of this update. Leftover fog Stratus quickly dissipates around 12 3Z today with VFR conditions then forecast for Thursday and Thurs night. There will be an isolated chance at some storms Thurs afternoon with the sea breeze. Sw winds will gust around 20 kt Thurs afternoon before easing Thurs night.
Outlook (Friday through Monday): Mainly iso to widely sct activity expected Friday with a lower threat for sub-VFR conditions. However, as we get into the weekend as an upper level trough and associated surface front approaches increasing chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions will be noted. Could see improving conditions on Monday.
Not much change in the forecast since the previous update as a stalled frontal boundary located across the area has begun to lift N'wards this morning. A few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across our waters this morning but this activity should quickly exit the region by mid morning as the front lifts north of ENC.
Seeing widespread 5-10 kt winds varying from E north of the front to to SSW south of the front across the waters this morning with 2-4 ft seas across our coastal waters. Expect light winds and low seas to persist through the morning today. However, as we get into the afternoon hours expect the thermal trough to develop tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in SW'rly winds increasing to around 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt with seas building to 4-7 ft. Winds will be strongest across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters and have kept SCA's for these areas while also adding the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet north to Duck. Winds relax briefly Friday morning, but then tighten again Friday afternoon as a front approaches from the NW with SCA conditions expected to redevelop over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet.
Outlook (Saturday through Monday): Once again not much change in the forecast as conditions gradually improve Saturday, then will see a backdoor cold front drop through the waters late Saturday night and Sunday with winds becoming NE around 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. A weak area of low pressure may form along the stalled front to the south Monday keeping E-NEly flow across the waters.
Nc, heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz045>047-080-081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199- 203>205. Beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz195-196-199-204-205. Marine, small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am EDT Friday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 4 am EDT Friday for amz150. Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 8 am EDT Saturday for amz152-154-156. Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am EDT Saturday for amz158.
