Key MESSAGE 1, Stalled front bisects the Hwy 64 corridor this afternoon with a secondary leftover outflow boundary noted along the Hwy 70 corridor. These two boundaries have been the focus for ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Given the ongoing cloud cover temps outside of the Onslow and Duplin Counties have not increased much today which has kept the area in the mid 80s to low 90s today. Have kept heat headlines in place across Duplin and Onslow Counties. As we get into tomorrow and Wed, less cloud cover and warmer temps as highs get into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s each day, heat indices could range from 105-109F each afternoon across a larger footprint of ENC. As a result could see a broader heat headline tomorrow for ENC once the ongoing heat advisory ends.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An unsettled pattern will persist over the next few days with several factors forecast to increase shower and thunderstorm chances this week.
A stalled boundary currently bisecting Hwy 64 and a remnant outflow boundary along Hwy 70, combined with persistent inland troughing, and plenty of moisture influx from the S and SW will keep a cloudy and active forecast in place this afternoon and early evening. Fortunately, the mid and upper level trough over NECONUS is pushing offshore this afternoon, ending the little mid and upper level dynamic support for organized convection. A fair amount of cloud coverage has dampened heating today from what we have experienced over the weekend with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE currently noted across the FA this afternoon. Iso strong storms with damaging wind gusts will be possible. Pwats still greater than 2" will keep threat for heavy rain which could lead to localized flooding in place through tonight. Tonight, the outflow boundary dissipates and the frontal boundary lifts back N, "warm- sectoring" the FA once again for Tue and Wed.
Tue features slight dip in available moisture with drier 850-700mb layer getting pushed up the SECONUS coast ahead of the next upper trough which will be pushing SE across the Ohio River Valley, leading to more typical summer-time PoPs of 20-40% through Tue night.
A strong front is forecast to approach and cross the area late Wed into Thu, posing the next threat for severe weather. Upper level pattern for this frontal passage appears more supportive of stronger storms with a sharper trough aloft digging further S than this weekend's trough. Moisture increases ahead of this front with low to midlevel flow opening up moisture advection channel from the E side of what is now Tropical Depression 2. The National Hurricane Center continues issuing advisories for TD2, but poses no tropical threat to ENC at this time, as it is forecast to meander slowly W across the Nern Gulf of America.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Wed/Thu stronger front is forecast to make it through the entirety of the land area of ENC, but still stall offshore. This will lead to mostly N-NEerly flow late week into the weekend, cutting down on the heat (low to mid 80s/upper 60s splits into the weekend). Severe threat appears minimal behind the midweek front, but the multi day period of showers in the forecast could lead to hydro issues.
18z Monday through Saturday Have a mix of VFR to IFR conditions (primarily reductions in visibility) due to ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with visibility in thunderstorms generally around 1-4 SM. Have all TAF sites and surrounding areas under TEMPO groups between 18-00Z this afternoon with OAJ/EWN having a TEMPO group between 18-21Z and ISO/PGV between 20-00Z today. In addition to the reduction in visibility wind gusts of 20-30 kts would be possible in any storm that impacts the TAF sits or surrounding airports. As we get closer to 00Z tonight expect outflow boundaries to either depart the area or dissipate and frontal boundary near Hwy 64 to lift north as a warm front essentially warm sectoring the area and ending the thunderstorm threat between 00-06Z tonight. Strengthening low level flow tonight should preclude any low stratus or fog threat tonight so once conditions go VFR this evening they should remain that way into Tue afternoon.
Outlook (Tue afternoon through Saturday): More climo PoPs TUE keeping VFR probs higher. A stronger front approaches late WED, renewing stronger shower and thunderstorm chances WED into THU. This front will stall offshore where it will linger into the weekend, keeping rain and subVFR flight cat threat up into this weekend.
Latest surface analysis shows a front currently bisecting the northern coastal waters just south of Roanoke Island this afternoon. To the north of the front, SE-E winds at 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts are noted while to the south of the front S-SW winds at 5-10 kts are noted. At the same time, seas of 2-4 ft are noted along the coastal waters. Finally scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occuring across our waters this afternoon bringing a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas to the area. As we get into tonight, shower and thunderstorm chances decrease as the aforementioned front lifts north. This will allow winds to become SW'rly across all waters at 5-15 kts with 3-5 ft seas noted across the coastal waters into Tue morning. The pressure gradient then tightens late Tue morning into Tue evening as a strong front begins to approach from the N and W allowing winds to increase further to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts across all waters Tue afternoon with 4-7 ft seas. This has resulted in the issuance of small craft advisories for all waters starting up between 15-19Z tomorrow and persisting into Thurs. There could be a few gusts up towards 35 kts mainly across our northern coastal waters but felt this threat was low enough to preclude a gale watch for now.
Outlook (Tue night through Saturday): For the outer waters, elevated winds and seas will continue into Thurs. This is in association with a stronger front that is forecast to approach and cross regional waters late Wed into Thurs, keeping elevated winds and seas in place and increased tstorm chances, mainly. Front moves through by Thurs with winds shifting to a NE'rly direction and easing to a 10-15 kts with seas falling to 2-5 ft thus ending the SCA threat by Thurs night.
Nc, heat advisory until 7 pm EDT this evening for ncz090-198-199. Marine, small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to 5 am EDT Thursday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory from 1 pm Tuesday to 11 am EDT Thursday for amz135-150. Small craft advisory from 3 pm Tuesday to 2 am EDT Thursday for amz136-137. Small craft advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 2 pm EDT Thursday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 11 am EDT Thursday for amz156-158.
