Key MESSAGE 1, Cold front is stalled to the south of ENC with light N'rly flow bringing dry and "relatively" cooler air over the region this afternoon. Highs have gotten into the 80s today though it is less humid than previous days.
As we get into tonight, winds look to once again decouple under mo clear skies as high pressure centered to the north slides E'wards towards the Eastern Seaboard. Low level moisture remains in place across portions of ENC especially across areas that saw rain on Monday. Given this, would not rule out the development of patchy fog or low stratus tonight after about midnight. Latest sounding data for this evening does look supportive for fog/low stratus development given a high potential for a low level inversion to develop thus trapping low level moisture in place. Will note there is one thing working against fog/low stratus development this evening which would be the continued advection of dry air today. For now to account for the uncertainty have capped visibility to 5 miles mainly along the Crystal Coast and left patchy fog in areas I have the highest confidence in for now. Further adjustments either up or down will likely be necessary to visibility tonight depending on trends. Otherwise lows tonight get into the upper 60s to low 70s. On Wednesday, surface flow becomes more onshore, kicking off a period of increasing moisture and instability across the Southeast U.S. Coastline with a modest uptick of shower and thunderstorm coverage as a wave of low pressure lifts a weak front northwards towards ENC.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Another wave of low pressure is forecast to lift along the same front Thursday into Friday, pulling it further north into ENC and providing a better focal point for more widespread coverage of showers and storms ahead of a second front which will cross the area by Sat. Given the multiple days of onshore flow, PWATs do return back closer to 2" from Thurs onwards and with enough instability in place but a lack of shear, a few isolated stronger storms aren't completely out of the question though not currently anticipated. In addition to this, any shower or thunderstorm that develops will be an efficient rainmaker bringing torrential rainfall and a low end risk for flash flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas. High pressure builds back in behind Sat's front on Sun bringing a return back to more climatological precip chances along the seabreeze. Temps into next week remain seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
18z Tuesday through Sunday # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #
Expected VFR conditions to persist across all of ENC this afternoon with light N'rly winds over the area. Vfr conditions look to continue into this evening. However, this is where the forecast gets tricky as winds are forecast to become light and variable to calm and skies remain mo clear. With low level moisture also sticking around patchy fog is not out of the question. While guidance has a limited threat for fog with HREF probs generally around 20-40% with highest probs around the Crystal Coast pattern recognition wise suggests fog is at least possible. So for now have added in a 5SM line for the OAJ/EWN TAFs where I have the greatest confidence in the potential for patchy fog from 07-12Z. There is some uncertainty with the forecast so changes either optimistic or pessimistic with regards to the fog threat may need to be made in coming updates. As we get into Wed morning, regardless of fog development VFR conditions are forecast to return after sunrise and remain in place into Wed afternoon.
Outlook: Modest uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage Wednesday in increasingly moist SW flow. Front gets pulled back inland Thursday into Friday with even more widespread shower/storm coverage possible ahead of another front to cross the FA SAT.
Benign boating conditions continue this afternoon as N'rly winds at 5-10 kts slowly veer becoming E and then SE'rly at 5-10 kts by Wed morning across all our waters. Winds then remain SE'rly at about 5- 10 kts through the day Wednesday as a weak front which is currently stalled to the south begins to lift N'wards. Seas remain at 2-4 ft through Wed evening. While it will likely remain mainly dry and thunderstorm free across our waters this afternoon and tonight a slight increase in chances especially across the waters south of Cape Hatteras will be possible on Wed as a weak front begins to lift N'wards across the area waters.
Outlook: Southerly flow remains in place from Wed night into the end of the week. Winds will increase slightly on Thurs night into Fri with the approach of a cold front closer to 10-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts. Winds then ease for the weekend as high pressure begins to build in from the north and west. This brings a low end chance of SCA conditions mainly along the coastal waters, but confidence is too low for SCA headlines currently. Seas should generally hold around 2-4ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft on Fri. The risk of thunderstorms will be elevated on Thurs, Fri, and Sat as a wave of low pressure pushes a stalled boundary north back toward the coast with another front crossing the area Sat.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
