Key MESSAGE 1, A foggy start to your Monday morning commute with locally dense fog inland around sunrise. Fog dissipates by mid morning with mainly dry conditions expected for today. Have cut back on pops further, with just low chc now expected for nrn areas as a front/prefrontal trough dip into nrn NC.
Front drops in Tue while PW's surge to aoa 2". Approaching shortwave energy brings good lift to the region and appears the best chance for widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms with cont 60-70% chc for showers. Good rain chances cont Wed into Thu as upper low over the region and offshore low bring periods of rain to the region. Thunder chances are very slim as deep nrly flow and CAD setup appears likely. This will keep temps cool, with highs no higher than the 70s each day.
Key Message 2, By mid week, strong high pressure system becomes anchored acrs New England and ern Canada, while at the same time broad low pres develops off the Mid Atlantic coast, tightening the pressure gradient along the mid- Atlantic and northeast. This setup will usher in stronger NE winds into coastal ENC. Exact timing, placement, and strength of the low will dictate wind speeds and impacts to coastal ENC. Ensemble probs for gales cont to inc, with wind gusts on the OBX and adjacent coastal waters 45-50 mph (30-40 mph land zones). What is more certain is that a long fetch of tightened nerly gradient winds offshore will bring high wave energy towards vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks. It is too soon to determine specifics at this point and trends will have to be monitored. There is high confidence in seas reaching 10-15 ft nearshore of the OBX with periods of around 10 seconds.
06z Monday through Friday Environment tonight remains favorable for fog with primarily clear skies and calm winds for most inland areas, and model soundings depicting a shallow but fully saturated surface layer. Probabilistic guidance adds confidence to this scenario, with the LAMP showing the likelihood of IFR or worse at 50-70% for all terminals, with best chances for dense fog at EWN and OAJ. Poor mixing Mon morning may delay lifting of stratus until after 14z in a worst case scenario.
Benign flying conditions expected for most of today with east to east southeasterly winds of 5-10 kt. Cold front drops into the area late today, but rain chances will likely hold off until after 00z Tues.
Outlook (Mon through Thu): This and the potential cold air damming pattern develops mid-week with a risk of prolonged sub- VFR conditions and breezy nnerly winds esp Wed into the end of the week.
Light and variable winds no higher than 5-10 kt today as high pres remains over the region. Seas will remain in the 2-4 ft range. Winds become predominantly nerly tonight though speeds no higher than 5-15 kt and seas remaining 2-4 ft.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): NE Winds and seas begin to build Tuesday PM and esp Wed as pressure gradient tightens as we are sandwiched between a strong high to our north and low pres developing well offshore. There is increasing confidence for a period of nerly gales later Wed and peaking Thu, then slowly diminishing Thu night into Fri. There is high confidence in high impact, dangerous seas reaching 10-15 ft nearshore of the OBX, with ECMWF cont to fcst 15-20 ft seas in the 20-60 mile offshore marine zones.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
