Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1000 pm EST Mon Nov 28 2022

Synopsis

High pressure briefly builds over the Eastern Seaboard tonight into Tuesday. A cold front looks to impact the region Wednesday, with dry high pressure returning for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front then could impact ENC over the weekend.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 10 PM Mon, No changes necessary with eve update.

Prev disc, As of 7 PM Mon, No changes needed with early eve update. Back door cold front analyzed on satellite over nern NC will continue to drop sse through the evening, with a slight uptick in winds for the beaches. Otherwise, quiet conditions overnight with calm to light winds interior. May have to drop temps a degree or two with later updates if TD's drop a bit more than expected with clr skies anticipated.

Prev disc, As of 300 PM Mon, A secondary, dry cold front will sweep through the area early this evening. An area of widespread clouds but no precipitation associated with the front will move across northeast NC late today. South of this cloud area, narrower cloud streets will dissipate with the loss of heating this evening, More significant CAA is expected following the passage of the secondary cold front tonight into Tue as high pressure builds in from the north with fresh northerly flow developing. Winds are forecast to eventually decouple overnight and combined with clear skies, lows will get down into the upper 30s to low 40s inland with mid 40s to around 50 forecast along the coast and OBX. Even as we decouple, not expecting widespread fog at the moment for tonight as the airmass will remain very dry.

Short Term

Tuesday As of 300 PM Mon, High pressure continues to ridge south over the area Tue with winds veering from NE to E. Skies will continue mostly sunny with temps a little cooler than Mon but still mild with highs reaching into the low 60s.

Long Term

Tuesday night through Monday As of 230 AM Monday, Upper level, and surface, ridging over the region on Tuesday will shift east Tuesday night, allowing a strengthening return flow to develop. Some model guidance are showing fairly strong elevated moisture transport into the area, which could support some very light rain developing as early as late Tuesday night or very early Wednesday morning. It will take some time to moisten the dry airmass from Monday, and forecast soundings aren't overly supportive of precip that early, so for now I'll hold with a dry forecast Tuesday night.

Modest moisture transport then continues into Wednesday ahead of a s/w lifting out of the Mid-MS Valley region. That wave will pass north of the Carolinas, with the best lift being focused to our north as well. However, modest moisture and lift (primarily WAA- driven) should still be supportive of scattered to numerous rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Due to the lack of stronger lift, rainfall amounts will likely be fairly light (0.10"- 0.25") for most of the area. While a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, the greatest risk should be focused offshore, and at this time, the risk of severe weather looks very low.

Along and ahead of Wednesday's front, a tightening pressure gradient and modest mixing will support another round of breezy/windy conditions, with 25-35 mph wind gusts likely (strongest along the coast).

Behind Wednesday's front, the upper level flow will become more zonal or northwesterly, with a strong high building in at the surface. This will support much cooler conditions to close out the work week, with highs only in the 50s, and lows in the 20s and 30s (coldest Thursday night into Friday morning).

The forecast becomes considerably more uncertain heading into the weekend. Within the zonal flow aloft, a couple of shortwaves may traverse the Mid-Atlantic. Medium range guidance are in fairly good agreement aloft, but differ on the degree of moisture return with each wave, which leads to significant precipitation and temperature differences. For now, I'll hold with a broad period of low pops over the weekend to account for the various waves coming through, and stick close to blended guidance for temps.

Aviation

03z Tuesday through Saturday Through Tuesday As of 7 PM Mon, VFR SKC through the TAF pd. Winds light n to NE though will remain generally less than 5 kt through the day Tue.

Tuesday night through Saturday As of 230 AM Monday, A cold front will move through ENC on Wednesday with sub-VFR conditions in SHRA and low CIGs likely (50- 70% chance). South winds may gust as high as 20-30kt as well, highest along the coast. A reduced risk of sub-VFR conditions is then expected for the remainder of the long term period, along with lighter winds.

Marine

Through Tuesday As of 300 PM Mon, Westerly winds continue 10-20 kt late today and will shift to N early this evening as a dry cold front moves through the waters. Winds will then diminish to 10-15 kt and become NE as high pressure builds over the waters. Tue NE winds 10-15 kt will become E and diminish to 5-10 kt in the afternoon. Will let the SCA expire at 3 PM, though there will be a brief period through 21Z where some 6 ft seas will be possible over the outer southern and central waters. 3-5 ft seas late today will subside to 2-4 ft after midnight and 2-3 ft Tue.

Tuesday night through Saturday As of 230 AM Monday, Increasing southwesterly winds will lead to building seas across the coastal waters, and choppy conditions for rivers and sounds on Wednesday and a cold front moves through. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is likely as well. A period of SCA level winds appears likely for much of the ENC waters late Wednesday into early Thursday. For the central coastal waters, wind gusts may approach gale-force, but for now this risk appears marginal/short-lived. For all coastal waters, a period of 4- 8 ft seas is likely Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Lighter winds and lower seas of 2-4 ft are then expected to close out the work week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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