Several chances for rain and a couple storms through the rest of the week as a wavy front will be nearby. A stronger cold front will sweep through late Saturday with better chances for widespread showers and storms. High pressure builds back in late this weekend to early next week.
Until 6 pm this evening As of 7 AM Thu, High pressure will continue to build in from the northeast today, which should keep mostly dry and stable conditions across most of the forecast area. The one exception will be across Duplin and Onslow counties where more favorable return flow will allow for some instability to develop, and here, some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening.
With onshore flow through the day, there will be a considerable temperature gradient with upper 60s to low 70s expected along the Outer Banks, and low 80s likely across the coastal plain.
6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday As of 7 AM Thu, Flow will slowly veer tonight as ridge of high pressure offshore sinks southward. As this occurs, the remnant boundary offshore will pivot to the coast, and widely scattered showers and even a thunderstorm will be possible along the immediate coast overnight. Expect lows to be in the mid to upper 50s inland, and the low to mid 60s along the coast.
Friday through Wednesday As of 0330 Thursday,
Friday through Saturday, There will be enough residual moisture and instability behind the front to keep a chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms across the area Fri. Trends in the guidance indicate only minimal coverage of any showers and thunderstorms Friday associated with weak coastal troughing with what's left of the front early, transitioning toward coastal plain with the seabreeze in the afternoon. Nbm PoPs look too high and have lowered them a little and if current trends continue in subsequent model runs then will continue to lower them in future forecasts. Yet another cold front is forecast to move through the area late Sat resulting in the threat for more widespread showers and storms. Highs warming into the low 80s Fri and a tick or two warmer ahead of the approaching front Saturday.
Sunday through Wednesday, Slightly cooler and drier air moves in as high pressure builds over the area from the N Sunday into early next week. Again NBM PoPs look to high for Sunday. Could see a lingering early morning shower, otherwise dry conditions should prevail. Will continue a dry weather forecast through mid next week though an isolated afternoon sea breeze shower or storm can't be completely ruled out. Pops increase again on Wednesday with the approach of another series of fronts to cross the area later in the week. Highs Sunday will be in the low 70s, warming to the mid 70s Mon and low 80s Tue.
12z Thursday through Monday Through Friday morning As of 7 AM Thu, VFR conditions are expected through the short term, except for a brief period of MVFR visibilities for the next hour or so this morning due to patchy fog. For the rest of the TAF period just some mid/high clouds are expected with winds remaining under 10 knots.
Thursday night through Monday As of 0345 Thursday,
key messages
- TSRA and sub-VFR risk persists through Saturday
A series of weak frontal boundaries coupled with sufficient moisture and instability will result in a chance for isolated to widely scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms Fri with brief sub VFR conditions possible. A strong front will cross the region late Sat with more widespread showers and thunderstorms and a better chance for a period of sub VFR conditions.
Through tonight As of 7 AM Thu, Good boating conditions will continue today and through tonight with high pressure ridging in from the northeast today and then east tonight. Winds will be NE 10-15 kts today, and then slowly veer to the E/ESE overnight at 5-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft.
Thursday night through Monday As of 0400 Thursday,
key messages
- Small Craft conditions possible Saturday night and Sunday
High pressure builds in Thu with NE winds 10-15 kt veering to become SE around 10 kt by Fri morning. Sat ahead of the next cold front, winds become S to SW 10-15 kt then shift to NW to N 15 to 20 gusting to 25 kt Sat night. Sunday, post frontal Nerly surge works down the coast through Sunday morning as high pressure builds back in behind the cold front. Prefrontal wind forecast has increased showing potential for prefrontal SCA conditions as well. Seas are forecast 2-4 ft with some 5 footers across the outer central waters Thu through Sat.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
