Key MESSAGE 1, Scattered thunderstorm coverage is observed over eastern NC in a very unstable, very moist environment. A weak shortwave sitting over the region and deep shear of 20-30 knots is providing enough forcing and maintenance out along and ahead of the sea breeze for a risk of deep cores in thunderstorms. This brings a risk of locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds with the strongest of storms. Threat of storms quickly wanes with a loss of daytime heating late this evening.
Heat will be the name of the game over the next few days as the Bermuda high centered off the coast will slide S'wards towards the Gulf Coast States while a thermal trough remains over the Piedmont. This will keep low level flow generally SW to W over the next several days. As a result, some weak WAA will allow low level thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based off the offices climatological study this is forecast to result in highs in the low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast through much of the week before a front impacts the region resulting in cooler temperatures late week into the weekend.
Heat indices are peaking around 100-105 this afternoon, but are expected to climb to around 105-110 Tue through Thurs, and potentially lingering into Fri with heat headlines probably for much of the area. In fact, have issued a Heat Advisory for southern portions of the CWA with the afternoon update. Areas north could get there, but uncertainty is higher as MCS currently moving through the Ohio Valley may bring more cloud cover and lower Tds with any remnant outflows that move into the region. Lows will be in the 70s which won't provide much relief from the heat in the coming days. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated.
Otherwise, a typical summer time pattern will be in place through much the week. Near zonal flow aloft with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area will result climo precip chances for the next several days with best chances through peak heating and seabreeze related for the most part but will also depend on timing and exact location of individual shortwave troughs. The severe threat appears minimal for the next couple of days with limited shear, though somewhat better shear develops toward the middle of the week. We do look to have increased precipitation chances closer to Fri and into next weekend with the approach of an incoming cold front.
00z Tuesday through Saturday AMD NOT SKED has been added to EWN again. Obs briefly came back today but have disappeared again this afternoon after a tstorm rolled through. Have no knowledge at this time of cause of the issue and do not want to speculate. Tafs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. Nkt is the closest ASOS. Ewn is able to be dialed into to receive METARs, last checked at 2354Z.
Fog and low stratus concerns are low tonight with winds expected to remain elevated enough. However, in a worst case scenario, spots that saw enhanced rainfall totals today could be at risk of seeing some low stratus or very shallow, non- impactful ground fog with higher near surface moisture to play with. The almost always pessimistic NAM shows IFR or lower stratus across the coastal plain in the early morning hours. Conceptual model says there is certainly a possibility, but lack of guidance solutions that show this keep probs low, but worth mentioning the potential here and in TAFs. Because of this, I have included FEW IFR cloud groups for ISO/PGV and FEW MVFR cloud groups for coastal terminals in the early morning hours.
Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are expected into mid week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture, there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible each day that could bring brief periods of sub- VFR conditions.
A typical summertime pattern across the waters with S-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well.
A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven over the Gulf Stream waters.
Nc, heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm EDT Tuesday for ncz090-092- 094-194>196-198-199. Marine, none.
