Key MESSAGE 1, An upper ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS and sfc high pressure ridging in from the north will keep dry conditions across ENC through Thursday. Upper low retrograding to the SSW across the offshore waters through Thursday may bring a few showers near the Gulf Stream, but dry conditions expected to persist across land areas. Ne flow regime remains in place through mid week bringing seasonable temperatures and comfortable dewpoint/humidity levels, then will see gradually warming and increasing dewpoints Thursday into Friday as high pressure weakens and slides offshore allowing low level flow to veer to southerly ahead of an approaching cold front.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A cold front is progged to move in late Friday and Friday night. Sfc convergence and lowering heights aloft as shortwave energy rides over the upper ridge along with increasing moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and perhaps a few storms acrs nrn half of the FA, with best chances N of Hwy 264 Friday afternoon into evening. Front slowly sags into srn portions of ENC Sat, with best chances for showers and iso thunderstorms for srn areas on Sat. Fcst a bit more muddled beyond Sat, though pops remain in the 30-50% range as above climo PW's will be in place along with wavy frontal boundary residing acrs the sern CONUS. Temps rise to above climo once again Fri into early next week.
18z Wednesday through Monday Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Few to scattered diurnal cu around this afternoon, with skies clearing this evening. Still a possibility for some patchy shallow fog development inland late tonight, with best chances at PGV, but confidence too low to include in TAFs at this time.
Outlook (Thu night through Mon): High pressure cont to dominate with predominantly VFR and dry conditions expected. A cold front is progged to push south into the area as early as Fri with chances for showers and perhaps a storm, which will cont the threat for some unsettled weather into the weekend.
Latest obs show NE-ENE winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft nearshore and 3-6 ft offshore. Light to moderate NE-ENE flow will continue overnight, gradually veering through the day Thursday with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.
Outlook (Thu night through Mon): Flow will veer to SE then S later Thu into early Fri as the high to the north weakens. A cold front drops into the nrn waters on Fri, bringing winds around back to the north again from n to s through the afternoon. The front clears the srn waters by later Fri night with nnerly winds expected to inc a bit into the 10-20 kt range. Winds and seas should remain below SCA however through the weekend.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203- 205. Marine, none.
