Key MESSAGE 1, Positively tilted upper level trough gradually dives S'wards today across the Mid-Atlantic while a mid level shortwave pushes out to sea. At the surface, cold front has pushed offshore resulting in dry conditions. We remain dry through today as high pressure gradually builds in from the north and west. However, the pressure gradient tightens between the incoming high and departing front resulting in breezy NE'rly winds. 20-25 mph gusts will be possible across inland areas today, while 25-35 mph wind gusts will be noted across the OBX later this morning and afternoon. While winds will be breezy, expect MinRH's across the inland areas to remain at or above 30% for the most part so not anticipating any elevated fire conditions for now. Only other thing we are monitoring is the potential for high surf across beaches north of Cape Hatteras as an elevated fetch of NE winds bring longer period swell to the area later tonight. For now latest guidance suggests peak wave periods of 10 seconds with wave heights around 7 ft keeping us just below the threshold for headlines. Will be monitoring marine obs today in case a short fused high surf advisory is needed later today.
Highs today get into the upper 60s along the OBX and coast to the mid 70s inland which will be notably cooler than previous days. As we get into tonight, high pressure continues to build in from the north and west relaxing the pressure gradient and weakening the winds. With clear skies and winds becoming light and variable to calm tonight a great radiational cooling night is ahead as lows are forecast to get into the upper 40s to low 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the OBX.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Previously mentioned positively tilted upper- level trough will push offshore on Wed and cutoff, which will help keep a developing coastal low well offshore Wed/Thurs. Guidance continues to keep this low farther offshore, and odds of any associated shower activity bleeding onshore continues to remain low both days. For now have left SChc PoPs along the OBX Wed and Thurs, but could see mentionable PoPs push offshore in coming updates with just mostly cloudy skies across the OBX if trends continue. The more noticeable impact from this feature will be stronger northerly gradient winds, which could gust to 20-30 mph along the coast. Temps remain slightly below average on Wed and Thurs as NE flow keeps the area cool with highs reaching the low to mid 80s inland and low to mid 70s along the OBX each day with lows in the 50s to 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 3, As we get into the end of the week, low offshore is forecast to push further out to sea with high pressure becoming anchored off the coast this weekend. This will bring steady SW'rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses, and warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the 90s inland and 80s along the coast and OBX bringing a return to more summer like temps. Long term probabilistic guidance suggests there is room for forecast highs to trend higher (probability of a Moderate or higher HeatRisk is already 60-80%+ on Saturday/Sunday), so those sensitive to heat issues are encouraged to keep an eye on trends over the next few days. Will note some guidance has picked up on a frontal passage occuring on Mon which would result in temps cooling and increased precip chances early next week.
12z Tuesday through Saturday High pressure has begun to build into ENC this morning with a cold front now noted well to the south. This has brought some drier air in sooner than previously forecast limiting the amount of MVFR ceilings across ENC. Expect VFR conditions across all TAF sites and the remainder of ENC through the period as high pressure continues to settle in. However, over the next few hours winds will increase with gusts up around 15-20 kts possible later this morning into the afternoon as the pressure gradient remains pinched between the aforementioned high and a developing low well to the east. These elevated winds then persist into this evening before decreasing as high pressure continues to build in from the north and west allowing the pressure gradient to relax.
Outlook: Winds will remain out of the NE on Wednesday but remain lighter as compared to Tuesday with a slight chance of showers (mainly along the OBX). Winds eventually shift to S'rly direction by late Thursday and into Friday and remain light into this weekend. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
Not much change in forecast thinking for the next few days as SCA's will remain in place across all our waters today and into tonight. Cold front is currently analyzed along the far southern waters this morning and will continue to push out to sea later today. Behind this front, NE winds at 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts are noted across all our waters as the gradient remains tight between this departing front and incoming ridge of high pressure. The pressure gradient will remain pinched into Wednesday as a coastal low develops and deepens well offshore. This will keep winds N-NE'rly at 15-25 kts across our coastal waters with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Will note with high pressure gradually building over ENC tonight do expect winds to gradually begin to ease tonight across the inland waters with gusts falling below 25 kts thus ending SCA's across the inland waters by 12Z Wed. Seas along our coastal waters will continue to increase today building to 7-12ft mainly north of Cape Lookout and across the 20-60 NM zones. These elevated seas continue into later this week keeping SCA's in place here. Weak signal remains for a brief window of Gales over the waters south of Hatteras beyond 20 nm, but is still too weak to include headlines this morning.
Outlook: SCA conditions come to an end by the end of this week with a return to more typical warm-season patterns in south to southwesterly flow and localized surges in the late afternoon and evening associated with thermal gradients.
Nc, beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Wednesday for amz131-230- 231. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Wednesday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz136- 137. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Thursday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Friday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for amz156-158.
