Key MESSAGE 2, Low pressure developing off the coast of NC is expected to keep a "cooler" northeasterly flow going across ENC through Tuesday. A warming trend ensues on Wednesday with highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100 degree. Guidance continue to show a strong signal for above normal temperatures Thursday through the weekend with temps well into the 90s and heat indices around 100-110 degrees bringing an increased heat risk once again.
00z Tuesday through Saturday Scattered showers will continue to have the potential to impact Eastern NC TAF sites this evening into the overnight, bringing periods of MVFR conditions in stratus and locally heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm threat has diminished this evening, with highest potential for any storms to occur near the coast. Given abundant low level moisture expect sub-VFR stratus to develop across much of the region overnight bringing MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions across TAF sites. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm threat redevelops Tuesday with highest probabilities across southern portions, EWN to OAJ.
Outlook (Tuesday night through Friday): Mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling Tuesday night bringing a threat for fog and stratus. A more predominant period of VFR conditions should return by the mid week.
Low pressure off the coast will slowly translate eastward along a stalled front just south of the waters and dissipate into Tuesday. Easterly winds remain around 10-20 kt across the central waters where the pressure gradient is tightest, with seas ranging 4-7 ft across the central and northern waters and 2-4 ft across the southern waters. Conditions will gradually improve overnight as the low begins to pull away from the area. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the central coastal waters, Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet, through late tonight.
Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Low pressure will slowly weaken and move east away from the coast on Tuesday with high pressure building in mid to late week bringing improved boating conditions. Building southwesterly flow is expected by the end of the week.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Beach hazards statement from 6 am EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for ncz196-203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Tuesday for amz152-154.
