Key MESSAGE 1, A large Nor'easter continues to spin off the coast of the Northern Mid-Atlantic this morning. Well south of the center of the system, the pressure gradient continues to relax, and this should continue to support winds stepping down compared to the past few days. As the winds weaken, and as the Nor'easter finally weakens and pulls further away from the region, swell energy will continue to decrease. While some coastal communities will continue to feel the effects of the rough surf and strong swell, the magnitude of impacts is expected to take a step down today. In light of this, the Coastal Flood Warning for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands has now been transitioned to a Coastal Flood Advisory. Areas where dunes have been damaged or weakened, some minor flooding may continue through 1 or 2 more high tides (around 8:00am this morning and 8:00pm this evening). Additionally, water may be slow to recede where roads have been flooded over the past few days, even without additional sound or oceanside water level rises.
Of note, the one area where new, minor coastal flooding may occur is around Roanoke Island. Moderate westerly winds are expected to develop along the length of the Albemarle Sound for several hours today, and this may support elevated waters levels in the Croatan and Roanoke Sounds. It's unclear whether the winds will be strong enough for a long enough duration, but the potential exists for up to 1 ft of inundation around those sounds, and the Northern OBX Coastal Flood Advisory covers this risk.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Southeast U.S. Later this week, but guidance has slowed down some on when this occurs. In light of this, the warmest temperatures of the week have trended towards the end of the week (Thursday/Friday). Beneath the ridge, warming low-level thicknesses and persistent southerly flow may allow inland highs to get back close to 90 degrees (roughly 10 degrees above normal as we head into the first few days of October). The humidity is forecast to steadily return as well, but with ridging in place, the chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to stay low for much of the week.
12z Sunday through Thursday Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours.
An area of low to mid level CIGs is spiraling around the southern periphery of the Nor'easter that is over the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast this morning. While there is some MVFR CIGs within this deck of clouds, the expectation is that they will remain east of the ENC TAF sites. It's possible that some lower clouds may linger around a bit longer into the day today, but VFR conditions are still expected to prevail for all TAF sites.
Westerly winds this morning are expected to increase some this afternoon, and are likely to be gusty at times, with gusts to 20kt forecast for several hours.
Outlook: Until the Nor'easter pulls fully away from the region, there may still be a low-end chance of SCT to BKN MVFR-level clouds, but in general, VFR conditions are expected to dominate moving into at least the first half of next week.
Northwesterly winds of 10-15kt this morning are forecast to become westerly by this afternoon, and may slightly build to 10-20kt. For the nearshore coastal waters, 25kt winds are not expected, but it will continue to be breezy. Winds finally lay down substantially by Monday as the gradient continues to relax. Of note, a weak area of low pressure may move through the area on Monday. While it is not expected to be strong, it may lead to varying wind directions during the day.
For the nearshore coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, seas of 6- 8ft this morning should finally lay down below 6ft by early this evening. A seas-driven Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through then. For the outer coastal waters, seas of 7-10ft are forecast to last into early this evening. For all coastal waters, seas are forecast to lay down to 2-4ft by Monday.
Outlook: Several days of much-improved boating conditions are anticipated for much of the upcoming week. Light northerly winds Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to become southerly Thursday and Friday. Seas of 2-3ft are forecast for much of the week as well.
Nc, beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz203-205. Coastal flood advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ncz203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz150. Small craft advisory until 5 pm EDT this afternoon for amz152- 154.
