Key MESSAGE 1..High pressure will expand across the SE today and winds will shift back to the southwest. This will increase moisture and temperatures with highs reaching nearly 80 inland and the low/mid 70s along the coast.
If we're able to overcome the dry layer between 700-850 mb, Wednesday's seabreeze could be active. Machine learning guidance shows low severe probs (10% or less), but decent bulk shear and a LLJ could help produce a few robust gusts within convection. Pops will continue to increase into the night as a cold front approaches from the west.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday night. At the surface, a cold front will cross into ENC Thursday afternoon but isn't expected to make it to the western edge of the CWA until Thursday evening. A low will develop along this front, but guidance still differs on the speed of the front and the strength and track of the low.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day, and there's a non-zero chance for some storms to be strong to severe. Forcing will be lacking in the morning, and depending on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the evening front, destabilization may be dampened. So although ample bulk shear will be present throughout the day, there are several factors that could weaken the severe threat.
In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW winds with gusts to approximately 30 mph inland and 35-40 mph along the coast.
A secondary low may develop along the offshore front on Friday, which could support a few showers brushing the coast.
06z Monday through Friday High pressure has moved offshore as of this update allowing calm winds to become S'rly at 5 knots or less across ENC overnight. S'rly winds will then increase after sunrise on Monday becoming gusty at times (around 15-20 kts) primarily behind the seabreeze that develops Monday afternoon. Winds then become light once again after sunset Monday.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the period. Will note, as we near sunrise today, moisture will gradually return within the developing southerly flow. This may allow for some shallow ground fog development, especially at KOAJ and KISO. This MIFG threat is low either way and not forecast to impact operations even if it does develop. So, have left it out of the TAFs once again given the marginal nature of the risk.
Outlook: Our next notable chance at sub-VFR conditions looks to be around Wednesday/Thursday with the approach of a low pressure system and its associated fronts. This is forecast to bring showers and thunderstorms to ENC and thus potential for reduced ceilings and visibilities.
Winds will return to the SW later this morning and increase to 15-20 kt by this afternoon. Marginal SCA winds are possible across the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras from this afternoon through this evening, but the current forecast has few and infrequent 25 kt gusts, so no headlines have been issued at this time. Seas will generally be 3-4 ft.
Outlook: 10-20 kt SW winds will continue through Wednesday with SCA gusts possible Wednesday night as the gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. On Thursday, prefrontal SW winds will increase to 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-40 kt. Winds will veer to the NW Thursday night and seas will peak at 5-10 ft. Winds will decrease to 15-25 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt by Friday morning with good boating conditions returning by the afternoon.
Thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusts, will be possible on Thursday as well.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
