Key MESSAGE 1, Cold front is moving in from the north early this morning, shifting winds from SW to N behind it. Main slug of precipitation in ILM's area moving NE this morning along the slowed down/stalled front once it settles along our southern tier of counties. Along this boundary a weak low is expected to form later today to our south before riding the Gulf Stream. Impacts from this system are expected to be low to none, just bringing some light to moderate rain to the region, best chances along the coast. Precip may linger along the coast and areas offshore through much of Friday and Friday night, but QPF amounts are expected to be low during this time.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Once the Friday front clears through a few dry days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in from the north. The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid- Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to be a bit lower for this system compared to today's. Enough spread remains in model guidance on timing that slight chance to chance PoPs were maintained this morning. Gfs is trying to show some mixed precip moving into NE NC with this system, but it is seen as an outlier, and a very unlikely outcome. This is due to the known cold bias of the GFS, and the lack of support from other models.
06z Friday through Tuesday A slow-moving frontal boundary is forecast to slide south through much, if not all, of ENC overnight, then stall just offshore by Friday morning. Ahead of the front, SHRA and mostly VFR CIGs should then transition to areas of RA/DZ and much lower CIGs. It's behind the front where the greatest risk of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected, and we're already seeing this develop just upstream of the area. Once these lower CIGs move in, it's expected that they will hold well into Friday, and potentially even through Friday night. Occasional reductions to VIS in BR/DZ/RA are expected over the next 24 hours. We'll also be monitoring the potential for FG development, both overnight and again Friday night.
Outlook: Improving aviation conditions are expected Saturday into Sunday morning. A cold front then moves through Sunday afternoon or evening with a northerly wind shift. Behind the front comes the next chance of sub-VFR conditions associated with the next weather system. This system may also bring the next chance of precipitation.
Sw winds are shifting to become northerly 10-15 knots behind a cold front moving through the region. Sca continues over the next 2 hours cape to cape for lingering seas 4-6 ft. Ne winds around 15 kt or less will continue on Friday with seas decreasing to around 2-4 ft. Light cool northerly winds over cold SSTs in the northern waters could allow for some sea fog to form. Confidence is low at this point, but will be worth monitoring once the Sun rises.
Outlook: High pressure ridging into the region from the north gradually weakens Friday night and Saturday with N to NE winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-5 ft. Next period of SCA likely Mon and Tuesday in increasing northeasterly flow.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 4 am EST early this morning for amz154-156. Small craft advisory until 3 am EST early this morning for amz158.
