Key MESSAGE 1, A wavy frontal boundary remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast U.S. Today, with areas of low pressure riding east along it. Weak instability, anomalous moisture, slow storm motions, and areas of enhanced convergence continues to favor bands of training convection capable of producing heavy rainfall rates (potentially as high as 2-3"/hr at times). While not everyone will get these rates, there remains an isolated threat of flooding and flash flooding where those occur, especially if they develop over urban areas. The threat for heavy rainfall eases tonight as instability wanes but scattered showers will likely continues, especially near the coast. Slightly drier air working in from the north will focus the heavy rainfall footprint across far southern sections of ENC Tuesday, with conditions improving by Tuesday night as the low and frontal zone shift farther offshore.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Low pressure developing off the coast of NC today is expected to keep a "cooler" northeasterly flow going across ENC through Tuesday. A warming trend ensues on Wednesday with highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100 degree. Guidance continue to show a strong signal for above normal temperatures Thursday through the weekend with temps well into the 90s and heat indices around 100-110 degrees bringing an increased heat risk once again.
18z Monday through Saturday Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms continues across rtes this afternoon bringing periods of MVFR conditions in locally heavy rainfall. The thunderstorms threat eases this evening but could still see isolated to scattered showers overnight, with highest chances near the coast. Given abundant low level moisture expect sub-VFR stratus to develop across much of the region overnight bringing MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions across rtes. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm threat redevelops Tuesday with highest probabilities across southern rtes.
Outlook (Tuesday night through Friday): Mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling Tuesday night bringing a threat for fog and stratus. A more predominant period of VFR conditions looks to return by the middle of the week.
Low pressure off the coast will slowly translate eastward along a stalled front just south of the waters and dissipate into Tuesday. Easterly winds around 10-20 kt with some gusts to 25 kt across the central waters where gradients are tightest while seas are around 4-7 ft across the central and northern waters and 2-4 ft across the southern waters. Conditions should gradually improve overnight and the low begins to pull away from the area. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the central and northern coastal waters, into this evening for the waters north of Oregon Inlet and late tonight for Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet.
Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Low pressure will slowly weaken and move east on Tuesday with high pressure building in mid to late week bringing improved boating conditions. Building southwesterly flow is expected by the end of the week.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz150. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Tuesday for amz152-154.
