Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure remains centered over the Mid- Atlantic with a coastal trough off the coast. Easterly low level flow continues to advect moisture onshore bringing light showers/sprinkles across eastern portions of the FA. High pressure will ridge farther southward tonight allowing low level flow to veer to Nly with moisture shunted swd ending the threat of light showers.
Hts/thicknesses build further to round out the week and temps climbing back to ~10 degrees above climo with highs upr 70s to near 80 inland to low 70s OBX on Friday. A reinforcing back door dry cool front will push through Friday night bring temps down closer to climo (low 70s most locales) over the weekend. Low temps will also remain above normal through much of the period with readings in the 50s. Normal lows for most of the FA are in the 45-50 range now.
KEY MESSAGE 2, High pres ridge finally begins to break down by Tuesday and esp Wednesday as next potential low pres area and cold front make it's way into the region on active sub tropical jet. Still timing differences on latest 29/00Z model suite, but it appears this system could bring beneficial widespread rain to the area. For now, due to timing differences, pops are in the 30-40% range at this time for the mid week period.
18z Thursday through Tuesday Low level moisture continues to advect onshore this afternoon bringing areas of light rain and sprinkles with occasional brief MVFR conditions at terminals, mainly coastal sites. Low level flow become more northerly overnight which should allow showers to remain offshore. Skies are expected to clear sufficently overnight with winds becoming calm which should allow for good radiational cooling conditions bringing a threat of low stratus and fog tonight. Guidance remains mixed with extent of fog development but HREF and REFS guidance show around 50-70% probabilities for sub-VFR conditions, so trended more pessimistic then a lot of other guidance. Any fog/stratus that does develop should mix out mid to late morning Friday with pred VFR conditions and light and variable winds.
Outlook (Fri night through Tuesday): Expect VFR conditions expected over the weekend into early next week as a backdoor cold front pushes through the area Friday night and strong high pressure builds in from the north over the weekend into early next week.
Currently seeing E to NE winds around 10-20 kt across the waters with gust to near 25 kt near the Gulf Stream, and seas around 4 to 7 ft. Sca continues through this evening south of Oregon Inlet for elevated seas. Winds will gradually diminish tonight becoming less than 15 kt on Friday.
Outlook (Fri night through Tuesday): A backdoor cold front will push across the waters Friday night with SCA conditions likely returning across the coastal waters Saturday into Sunday. Conditions gradually improve early next week as high pressure builds into the region.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until midnight EDT tonight for amz152-154- 156-158.
