High pressure builds in today, while a weak front moves south through the region tonight. A warm front moves through Friday evening with next chance for rain followed by a weak cold front. An arctic cold front moves through Monday with a return to cold through early next week.
Through tonight As of 2 AM Christmas,
Key Messages,
- Small chances (15-25%) for light rain late Christmas Morning across northern NC
Increasing clouds this morning as a weak disturbance moves across the NC/VA border and offshore. Forecast models have backed off on the threat of light rain this morning across ENC, but there remains a small chance for rain (15-25%) across northern NC. Temperatures will be slow to rise in the morning due to the clouds, but will jump up into the 60s to low 70s as skies clear by noon and southwesterly flow ramps up ahead of another quick-hitting front.
Friday through 6 am Friday As of 2 AM Christmas,
Key Messages,
- Weak cold front moves through tonight and will bring a small chance (15-20%) of light rain again
- Cool and cloudy Friday with light rain arriving late
A weak cold front will push through ENC early tonight with very small chances of light rain possible along it. Despite the mostly cloudy skies overnight, lows should drop down into the upper 30s to low 40s inland, and upper 40s along the coast.
Behind a cold front Friday brief CAD appears likely with high pressure nosing in from the north. This will keep skies mostly cloudy and temps from warming too much past the low to mid 50s. Late in the day the front will return north as a warm front with increasing chances (+30%) for rain possibly into Friday night.
Friday through Wednesday As of 2 AM Christmas,
Key Messages,
- Light rain possible Friday night as a warm front moves across northern NC
- Above normal conditions Saturday and Sunday with temps reaching the upper 60s to low 70s
- A pattern changing arctic cold front will move through the area Sunday or early Monday with well below normal conditions returning through early next week
Rain chances continue to increase Friday night (40-60%) as a warm front moves through ENC, but precip amounts will be light. High pressure ridge rebuilds over the weekend with very warm and dry conditions expected. Temps will climb to the upper 60s to low 70s, though chillier conditions are expected along the OBX.
A strong cold front is likely to move through the area Sunday or early Monday, and will bring much colder conditions to the Carolinas through early next week. Limited moisture will be available with this front, and only scattered areas of light rain expected as it moves through.
12z Thursday through Monday As of 6:20 AM Christmas Day, VFR flight cats are expected until late tonight when chances will increase for MVFR CIGs as a cold front moves through the area. Mid level clouds will continue to increase through the morning. Winds will veer from SE to WSW through the day, peaking during the afternoon when winds will be out of the SW around 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt (25-30 kt for terminals along the coast). There's also the potential for LLWS of 37 kt at 20,000 ft from late morning to early afternoon. Scattered -SHRA will be possible north of HWY 264 in the afternoon as a warm front lifts north, but chances continue to be too low to include a mention in the TAFs (15-20%). A cold front will move through overnight and a BKN deck of low clouds will develop after 00z, which will bring another 15-20% chance of -SHRA and could introduce MVFR CIGs across the area near midnight.
Outlook: Generally quiet through the end of the week with VFR conditions expected for much of ENC.
As of 2 AM Christmas,
Key Messages,
- Small Craft conditions will continue this afternoon over the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound after a brief lull this morning through tomorrow
- Additional rounds of Small craft conditions likely this weekend and into early next week
Chaotic boating conditions expected in the short term as multiple fronts cross area waters in quick succession through the holidays.
Winds this morning will be E/SE at 5-15 kts, but will quickly strengthen this afternoon to SW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-35 kts over the coastal waters. Winds shift to the north tomorrow night at 15-25 kts before subsiding to NE 10-20 kts by Friday morning. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft this morning, but will increase to 5-8 ft this afternoon through Friday.
Outlook: Winds temporarily improve over the weekend, but seas may remain at or above 6 ft as long period swell moves into marine waters. Winds increase again Monday morning in advance of a strong cold front with widespread Small Craft conditions and possibly Gale conditions developing.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 am EST Friday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm EST Friday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 1 pm EST Saturday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EST Friday for amz156-158.
