Key MESSAGE 1, Quasi stationary high pres sprawling across the Mid- Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will result in cont northeasterly flow across the region today. The high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to additional minor coastal flooding impacts on the OBX.
For Hatteras Island, seas offshore are in the ~6-7 foot range, but the long period swells will continue to cause issues for vulnerable areas. For ocean-side: high tide is around 0945 PM EDT this evening. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe.
Minor coastal flooding of vulnerable locations will be likely well into this week despite the diminishing of winds, with "sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of coastal ENC around times of high tide, then slowly improve as the King Tides ease later in the week and into the weekend. Coastal flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle on Thursday with the potential to be extended further in time.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Quasi stationary dry high pres cont to sprawl across the region with weak coastal troughing offshore. Some moisture has pushed inland today bringing a few sprinkles or light rain showers to locations south of highway 70, as well as portions of the OBX. For the latter half of the week into the weekend, hts/thicknesses build further, and temps climbing back to ~10 degrees above climo with highs upr 70s to near 80 inland to low 70s OBX. Low temps will warm above climo as well with readings in the mid 50s for most locales away from the immediate coast.
High pres ridge may begin to break down as early as Sunday, but recent runs from EC/AIFS cont to keep a stronger high in place. May have to wait until a stronger srn stream system sweeps across the Deep South and into the region later next week to see next good chance for appreciable rain. For now, pops remain quite low for late Sun into Mon ~30% to account for the small shower chances.
18z Wednesday through Monday Pred VFR across rtes this afternoon but an area of light showers moving across rtes south of Hwy 70 bringing a brief period of MVFR cigs. Plenty of low level moisture in place and expect low stratus and patchy fog to develop once again tonight bringing sub-VFR conditions. Inland locations have the highest probabilities (60-80%) of seeing IFR or lower conditions, highest probabilities west of highway 17. Greatest restrictions expected from low cigs with vsbys mainly 3-5 mi as clouds will limit radiational cooling. Stratus will gradually lift through the morning Thursday with pred VFR expected around mid-day.
Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Expect VFR conditions to continue during the daytime through at least Sun with quasi- stationary high pres over the region. Coastal sections could see ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic, as well as bouts of overnight fg and low stratus inland with winds quite calm the next several nights.
Currently seeing E to NE winds around 10-20 kt across the waters with gust around 25-30 kt near the Gulf Stream, and seas around 5 to 7 ft. Buoys east of Nags Head reporting 6 ft seas, so have added the waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet to the SCA through tonight. Sca continues through Thursday evening south of Oregon Inlet as it will take a while longer for seas to subside near the Gulf Stream. Winds will gradually diminish tonight into Thursday.
Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Winds/seas diminish by Thu evening, though respite may be rather short-lived, as building seas are possible once again later in the weekend into early next week.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 2 pm EDT Thursday for ncz195-196- 199-203>205. Beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 4 am EDT Thursday for amz150. Small craft advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for amz152-154-156-158.
