Key MESSAGE 1, There will be quite the temperature gradient today with inland areas reaching the low to mid 70s while the Outer Banks will max out in the 50s. A quick moving cold front will drop south across the area this evening. Strong forcing and higher PWATs (~1") along the front will support the potential for scattered showers, so slight chance to chance PoPs have been maintained with this forecast update. Lack of instability and weaker upper level support should keep us thunder free along this front. Behind the front, a tight pressure gradient with high building in will bring a surge of breezy conditions with wind gusts 20-25 mph inland tonight, increasing to 25-35 mph along the coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2, CAA behind Sunday night's front paired with the cold air damming setup will let overcast skies linger and keep temperatures cooler on Monday with highs in the low to mid 40s for most, increasing to around 50 for coastal locales. A few shortwaves will move through late Monday and into Tuesday and bring the next chance for scattered light showers across the area. While the GFS is still holding onto snow chances at the NC/VA border, this is not expected to extend south into our county warning area.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Upper ridging will move in on Tuesday and start a warming trend that will last through the rest of the week as a surface high sits offshore late week. On Tuesday, highs will range from the low/mid 60s inland to mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will range from the low 80s inland to low 60s at the beaches. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there's potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons Friday onwards.
KEY MESSAGE 4, Areas of dense fog continue to impact parts of ENC this morning. This is due to a combination of locally grown fog (radiational cooling effects) and fog advecting in from the SW. The most widespread, and impactful, fog is expected to be confined to Duplin and Onslow Counties. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 800 AM this morning to account for this impact. Elsewhere, webcams and satellite imagery suggest the fog is more patchy in nature, and this risk area was covered with a Special Weather Statement through 800 AM. Fog should mix out by 8-10 AM this morning.
12z Sunday through Thursday Satellite imagery shows an area of more widespread, and impactful, FG moving into southwestern sections of ENC at this time. This FG has been impacting KOAJ, while the remainder of the TAF sites have been contending more with shallow FG (MIFG) vs a deeper, more impactful FG. Conditions should gradually improve after 12-13z, with VFR conditions expected by the afternoon hours. A cold front will move south through ENC this afternoon and evening (20z-03z timeframe). A band of MVFR/VFR CIGs are expected to accompany the front, and there may be just enough lift and moisture to support a risk of SHRA. The TSRA risk isn't zero, but continues to look low (<10% chance). A notable N to NE wind shift is expected along the front, with occasional gusts up to 20kt possible.
Outlook: Behind Sunday's front, high pressure will build in early next week, setting up a cool air wedge across the Carolinas. This pattern favors widespread sub-VFR conditions across ENC. Within this pattern, probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of IFR conditions from Monday night into Tuesday. Periods of -RA look to accompany the low CIGs as well. Improving aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week.
Light W/NW winds early this morning thanks to a high sitting over the southeast. Today will have pleasant boating conditions until the evening when a cold front will drop south across the area and bring a strong surge of northeasterly winds. After sunset, wind gusts 25-34 knots will develop across the northern waters, expand southward through the overnight hours through Monday. There is potential for infrequent gale force gusts south of Cape Hatteras behind the front, but confidence is increasing in primarily sub-34 knot gusts given a slightly weaker wind gust trend in models. Eps is still giving high gale force probs (70%) for this region so it can't be completely ruled out, but this seems to be the outlier when compared with other deterministic and ensemble based models. With a favorable N/NE wind direction and high HREF/REFS probs, have expanded the SCA to include most remain inland sounds/rivers with the exception of the Pamlico/Pungo River. Rap is suggesting the Pamlico/Pungo river area to see the tightest pressure gradient of the region behind the front, so despite the unfavorable NE wind direction infrequent gusts up to 25 knots are not out of the question for a brief period tonight. Seas are expected to build in response to the strong NE winds, increasing to 5-8 ft Monday night and 6-9 ft on Monday (highest near the Gulf Stream waters). Winds will be on their way down Monday night, but seas will be slow to subside and may not drop below 6 ft until Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Outlook: After headlines drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week should have pleasant boating conditions with winds and seas remaining below 25 knots as winds switch to become more southerly with high shifting offshore.
Nc, dense fog advisory until 8 am EST this morning for ncz090-198- 199. Marine, small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 pm EST Monday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 1 am EST Tuesday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 pm EST Monday for amz137. Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm EST Tuesday for amz150. Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am EST Wednesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm EST Tuesday for amz156-158.
