Key MESSAGE 1, Conditions will continue to improve as Nor'easter lifts away from the area. Large surf continues as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast, especially along Hatteras Island where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe, and ferry service remains suspended in certain locations. Each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the dunes further, and the threat of additional impacts to Hwy 12 remain. The next high tide is around 430 PM this afternoon and 5 AM Thursday morning. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras Island and a Coastal Flood Advisory for the Northern Outer Banks and Ocracoke Island. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for the beaches from Duck to Cape Hatteras where surf heights 8-12 ft will continue into Thu.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Pleasantly cooler air mass will remain with us through the next several days with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Strong high pressure building in from the north and low pressure well off the SE coast will result in a period of breezy to strong NE winds Friday into the weekend, mainly along the coast. This combined with high astronomical tides could lead to additional minor coastal impacts (coastal flooding and rough surf).
00z Thursday through Monday VFR conditions are forecast at all TAF sites through the period as light N'rly winds, dry weather, and mainly clear skies persist. One exception will be across the OBX where some MVFR ceilings may hang on until around midnight before skies clear. N'rly winds then increase slightly Thurs afternoon to 5-10 kts with gusts up towards 15 kts at times, but ENC remains dry and under partly cloudy skies.
Outlook (Friday through Monday): VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next several days with strong high pressure building in from the north.
Biggest change was to cancel the gale warnings along the outer waters as latest obs around the area suggest wind gusts have fallen well below 35 kts here. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.
Prev Disc, Conditions slowly improving. Latest obs show N-NNE winds 10-20 kt across the rivers and sounds, and 15-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt across the coastal waters, with seas 4-7 ft south of Lookout and 10-15+ ft north. Expect similar conditions to persist through this afternoon as the low very slowly drifts northward and deepens, but will see winds begin to decrease tonight as the low drifts farther away from the area. Seas will only subside by a couple of feet tonight with large swells persisting. Winds will continue to diminish Thu, though large seas will persist across the coastal waters.
Outlook (Friday through Monday): Winds and seas increasing again Friday into the weekend as strong high pressure builds in from the north. This is expected to lead to extended period of SCA conditions, possibly gales across portions of the outer waters.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT Thursday for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT Thursday for ncz203-205. Coastal flood advisory until 8 am EDT Thursday for ncz204. Coastal flood warning until 8 pm EDT Thursday for ncz205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz131- 230. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for amz135-231. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Monday for amz150-152-154. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Thursday for amz156-158.
