Key MESSAGE 1), Warm and moist SW flow across the much cooler coastal waters is bringing sea fog to our coastal marine zones. Visibilities have dropped as low as 1/4 mile across the affected area and extended the marine dense fog advisory through much of tonight for the coastal waters. Winds shifting to the E/NE early Saturday will help scour out any lingering sea fog.
KEY MESSAGE 2), An upper low is tracking across the Great Lakes today with an attendant cold front approaching from the west. Embedded shortwave energy is pushing across the region with warm and moist SW flow ahead of the front bringing a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The warm and moist conditions has allowed for modest instability across inland locations with RAP mesoanalysis showing CAPE of around 1000 J/Kg this afternoon while strengthening deep layer SW winds has brought 0-6 km bulk shear to around 50 kt. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain sub-severe but they could bring locally gusty winds up to 40 knots. This is reinforced by the 42 kt observed gust near Goldsboro at KGSB as the line went through. The greatest threat for wind gusts 30-40 knots is inland as the cold waters along the coast and sounds bringing much more stable conditions along the coast.
KEY MESSAGE 3), Increasing SW flow across the region today will bring low level thickness around 1390-1395m across inland locations this afternoon which brings the potential for temps to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s if sufficient insolation is realized. Clouds and showers moving through the region are helping bring temps down from west to east, so best shot of 80F would be for areas along hwy 17 where showers will move through later on this afternoon. Record highs are in the lower 80s inland from the coast and the record values for established climate sites can be found in the CLIMATE section below. Across the immediate coast and OBX, below normal water temperatures will keep these areas cooler with highs in the 50s to 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 4), Guidance remains in good agreement with a positively tilted shortwave tracking across the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains late this week with the trough taking on a more negative tilt and deepening slightly as it pushes off the coast early next week. At the mid levels southern stream shortwave quickly traverses the CONUS reaching the Southeast by Sun/Mon while a northern stream shortwave dives S'wards at the same time potentially phasing with the southern stream as it pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, cold front will drop SE'wards across ENC late tonight and stall south of the area on Saturday with a wave of low pressure then riding along this stalled front and deepening after it pushes offshore bringing chances for rain across the region this weekend. Precipitation gradually ends from west to east Sun night into Monday with strong CAA ramping up behind the departing low as it rapidly deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast allowing temps to fall into the 30s. There is a chance for a non impactful rain/snow mix towards the end of the event this weekend Sun night into Mon. While some of the more aggressive models are suggesting over an inch of snowfall for the northern tier of counties, this is expected to be the typical cold air chasing the moisture setup. For this reason, confidence is still moderate to high that we will see less than an inch of snow around the Albemarle Sound. However, with a large amount of ensemble members suggesting minor snowfall accumulations Along the Albemarle Sound, have added T-0.2" of snowfall accumulations with this update Sunday night/Monday morning. In addition, have introduced a couple hours of chc/schc snow in the forecast for this northern tier, as the previous forecast had rain/snow. A shortwave rotating through the departing low may keep low clouds and light precip lingering through much of Monday, although we will have dried up a decent amount at that point. We will need to be on the lookout for stronger winds on the backside of the low as it departs and deepens as this could bring additional coastal impacts as a worst case scenario.
Biggest challenge with this setup will be when the low begins to deepen as a weaker and more out to sea low track will result in lower impacts from this system while a stronger and closer to the coast track will bring greater impacts to the area.
18z Friday through Wednesday VFR conditions currently across the terminals this afternoon. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through 21z, which could bring tempo sub-VFR and gusts 30-40 kt. Sw gradient winds will continue to gust 20-30 kt through early this evening. Llws is a concern the first part of tonight with 40-45kt winds above the inversion around FL015-020. Sea fog will likely continue to be an issue for portions of the coast tonight before the frontal passage. Brief patchy fog will be possible inland as well before the frontal passage, though little guidance shows development right now. Will continue to keep VFR overnight. Lower cigs develop behind the front with light rain overspreading the area Sat, which will likely bring periods of sub-VFR with best chances after 15z.
Outlook: MVFR and IFR flight cats possible Sat night and Sun as an area of low pressure travels through the area along tonight's front that will have stalled to the south, bringing likely rain, lower CIGs/VIS, and stronger winds into early next week.
Warm and moist SW flow advecting over the cool SSTs is leading to patchy to areas of sea fog along coastal marine zones this afternoon. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal waters through tonight.
A stationary front located to our north has increasing SW flow doe ENC this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Sw winds around 10-20 kt across much of the cooler waters, but offshore near the warmer Gulf Stream waters have seen winds around 20-30 kt. Seas are forecast to build to around 4-7 ft along warmer waters in response with the stronger winds. Winds and seas will diminish tonight with a cold front pushing across the area and stalling offshore. An SCA remains in effect south of Oregon Inlet until late tonight.
Outlook: A strong low pressure system is forecast to impact the coastal waters on Sunday with strong SCA to Gale Force conditions likely Sunday night into Monday as the low rapidly deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The strength and location of the low will go a long way in determining what conditions our coastal waters see so continue to keep a close eye on forecast trends in the coming days in case the forecast trends more optimistic or pessimistic. It is worth noting, with this update the winds have trended up a notch, 35-40 knot gusts along much of our coastal waters, 25-35 knot gusts elsewhere.
Nc, none. Marine, dense fog advisory until 7 pm EST this evening for amz150-152- 154. Small craft advisory until 2 am EST Saturday for amz152-154- 156. Dense fog advisory until 4 am EST Saturday for amz156-158. Small craft advisory until 11 pm EST this evening for amz158.
