Key MESSAGE 1, After the second day in a row that the KMHX sounding broke a record high PW, some lingering coastal showers tonight will be shunted off the coast by early Monday as cool front pushes through. In the wake of the front, a reinforcing front from the north brings breezy nerly winds that usher in dry and seasonably cool weather. Mo cloudy to ovc skies on Mon will keep temps on the cooler side, with highs in the low/mid 70s despite dry weather ensuing. The reinforcing front Mon night will bring a much drier airmass in and clearing skies, and as high pres builds Tue into Wed, very pleasant mild and dry days with highs near climo in the 75-80 range (low 70s OBX), but cooler than normal lows well down into the 50s for the mainland, and perhaps a few 40s for the normally cooler sheltered locales as strong radiational cooling is maximized Wed morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Atms moderates Thu into the weekend as zonal flow ensues, and this will bring a warming trend back to ENC, WIth several days of warming, eventually upper level flow becomes swrly, and a return of Gulf moisture on tap by Fri or the beginning of the weekend. Timing in synoptic features becomes less certain this far out, so introduced only chc pops attm for the extended period.
18z Sunday through Friday Most TAF sites to remain IFR throughout the day, as sfc boundary is confined to the coast, and only KMRH scattering out to MVFR or higher. Any improvement will not be long lived with CIGs lowering again overnight to likely LIFR or lower as weak subsidence inversion builds with plentiful low level moisture lingering. Think the chance for dense fog is low however, and will be mainly driven by very low cigs 200-300 ft and 2-4sm BR. Cigs gradually lift through the late morning Mon, though may take till afternoon to finally lift to MVFR.
Outlook (Mon night through Fri): Winds will become northeasterly behind a reinforcing front Mon night, surge peaking TUE morning, though this will also usher in dry air and hence a return to mainly VFR conditions, both day and night with lowered dewpoints.
Wind fcst cont to trend down, though enough of a signal for SCA winds/seas south of Oregon Inlet, so have issued a SCA for these zones where probs for SCA conditions are greatest. Winds more marginal for Pamlico sound and nrn waters, so have left out of headlines, with just ocnl gusts to 25 kt poss. Seas of 2-4 ft cont through Mon, then build to 5-7 ft south of OR Inlet Mon evening, eventually subsiding back below 6 ft by late Tue afternoon.
Outlook: Northeasterly flow of 10-15kt expected mid week as high pres will be anchored to the north, and winds/seas remain below SCA thresholds.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 10 pm Monday to 2 pm EDT Tuesday for amz152-154-156. Small craft advisory from 10 pm Monday to 5 pm EDT Tuesday for amz158.
