Front has passed through the area with weak high pressure wedging in over ENC in its wake. A low pressure system will develop and travel along the boundary stalled offshore to the south, impacting the Carolinas this morning into Saturday. The front will remain stalled off the southern NC coast behind this system leading to unsettled weather through early next week.
Today As of 0200 Friday,
Key Messages
- A brief wintry mix possible, but not likely, across extreme NW sections of ENC Friday morning
- Below normal temperatures to continue into this weekend
Cold front has sagged south of the FA, currently located south of Cape Fear near the SC/NC border. T/tds behind the front are less than impressive than previously forecast, which has led to a higher MinT forecast, as well as a further decrease in likelihood of any wintry precip, which was already low to begin with. Overcast skies as moisture streams overhead from the Gulf on the Eern side of trough aloft from Wern MEX. Rain has been held at bay through the first half of tonight as sub-cloud layer air started the evening fairly dry, as evident on the 00Z MHX sounding. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the stalled front just off the GA coast, scooting quickly east to the south of ENC today. North of the stalled front, a quick- hitting round of WAA-driven precipitation is expected to overspread the area late in the early morning hours through this evening. In addition to the strong WAA, strong isentropic ascent and modest low-mid level frontogenesis within a deep layer of moisture should support a period of moderate precipitation rates today, with liquid equivalent amounts of 0.50"-1.50" expected. The highest rainfall totals (amts approaching one in) are expected along the immediate coast where the greatest moisture and strongest low- level forcing will overlap. Inland areas W of HWY17 are forecast to receive ~half in.
Given the Ts behind the front are a solid 5-7deg warmer than previously expected, the likelihood of precip freezing and sticking has gone down from their already low chances. For now, the forecast will reflect a categorical chance of light to moderate rain with an overly gracious SChc of snow mixing in across extreme Martin Co for only an hr or two just before sunrise this morning, allowing for possibility of CAA through the lower levels really ramping up. This is a cutback in both duration and areal coverage of the wintry mix.
By this afternoon, troughing offshore continues to sharpen eventually becoming a weak low pressure system working NEward along the stalled boundary to the S, passing ~60 SE of Cape Fear around 18Z, and ~50mi SE of Cape Hatteras by 21Z. Precip wanes from NW to SE through the evening as the low reaches our latitude. Maxts remain cool inland under OVC skies and NEerly flow, low to mid 40s inland, low to mid 50s Inner and Outer Banks.
Tonight through Saturday night As of 0245 Friday,
Low will continue departing to NE through the period starting ~60-80mi E of the coast somewhere near the NC/VA border. Some light rain/drizzle lingers along the immediate coast with moisture continuing to lift over the strengthening high pressure cool wedge entering the Carolinas from the N. Light winds back to become more NWerly as the low pulls away. Overnight Lows in the mid to upper 30s inland, mid to upper 40s coast.
Same boundary is forecast to remain stalled just south of ENC on Saturday. Given the close proximity, and various upper level waves moving through the region, there's the potential for areas of very light precipitation at times, mostly across the Crystal Coast and through Hatteras. All precip is expected to remain liquid with delayed arrival of subfreezing temps leading to a "cold air chasing the moisture" scenario.
Sunday through Thursday As of 0300 Friday,
Key Messages
- Lull in wet weather Sunday - Another round of rain starting Sunday night into Monday - Cold front passes Monday - Dry and warming through midweek
High pressure center reaches the Carolinas from the N on Sunday, providing a brief break in the wet weather. Partial clearing of skies with a decrease in moisture and increasing heights allow MaxTs to reach back into the low 50s Sunday. The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern half of the CWA with lingering PoPs with passage of cold front expected Monday and an area of low pressure passing well offshore. Dry conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure builds back in at the SFC behind Monday's front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the coast. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s MON/TUE with widespread sub- freezing MinTs away from the immediate coast each night, coldest MON night/TUE am with lows well into the 20s, to around freezing along the mainland coast. Warming into the mid to upper 50s WED and THU.
11z Friday through Tuesday As of 615 AM Fri,
Key Messages
- Prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions expected today and tonight, with periods of light to moderate rain.
VFR conditions currently across the terminals, with conditions gradually deteriorating this morning. Light to moderate rain and IFR/LIFR cigs will overspread the area today. Rain will grad taper off from west to east late this afternoon and this evening. However, expect sub-VFR conditions to continue with low stratus and areas of light rain, drizzle and fog.
Outlook: Widespread sub-VFR conditions likely to continue Saturday with periods to drizzle and rain. Vfr conditions likely to return Saturday night.
As of 0300 Friday,
Key Messages
- Rain lasting into Saturday evening - Elevated winds and seas through this evening - Lull latter half of this weekend with brief high pressure SUN - N-NEerly winds strengthen again early next week, possibility of Gale still exists, but trending downward
Cold front has passed well S of area waters and is expected to stall south of NC tonight. A weak area of low pressure is then forecast to ride along the front today, moving away from the NOBX tonight. The tightening pressure gradient north of the low appears supportive of a period of 20-25kt winds and elevated seas, mainly north of Ocracoke Inlet. While a bit marginal, the setup still appears worth keeping a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the central and northern coastal waters through this evening. Guidance did trend down with winds, though, and the forecast reflects a slight adjustment down. Lighter winds are then expected on Saturday as high pressure builds in.
Seas are forecast to build to 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet as winds continue to strengthen. South of there, seas of 3-5ft are expected. For all waters, seas should lay down to 2-4ft by late Saturday.
Outlook: Expecting rain through Saturday with stalled front to the south, and plentiful moisture lifting over the incoming high pressure. Sunday will be best boating day of weekend with drying trend and Nerly winds decreasing. Conditions deteriorate once again early next week with FROPA expected MON while a low pressure system also passing well offshore. Guidance has backed off on depth of MON's low and keeps it further offshore than previously forecast. While winds are still expected to strengthen on the backside of MON's low, the probability of Gales is on the downward trend. Scas remain likely over all ENC waters, inside and outside, with Gales possibility becoming confined to warmer Gulfstream waters offshore.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 7 pm EST this evening for amz135. Small craft advisory until 7 pm EST this evening for amz150. Small craft advisory until 11 pm EST this evening for amz152- 154.
