Key MESSAGE 1, A progressive pattern will continue through the week with another low pressure system progged to push across the area late Wednesday followed by another southern stream system potentially impacting the area next weekend.
Some guidance shows a weak mid-level shortwave developing just W of the FA through tomorrow morning and then crossing overhead in the afternoon to eject off the coast toward tomorrow evening. More excitable HiRes guidance suggest there may be some showers associated with this feature as it reaches the Inner Banks. Have increased PoPs in the afternoon but keep them below mentionable in the forecast.
Ridging across the area early this week will breakdown Wednesday as shortwave energy rotating around an upper low north of the Great Lakes pushes across the area. The attendant low will pass north of the area dragging a warm front from S to N through the morning hours WED with the trailing cold front pushing across the area Wednesday night. A high shear/modest CAPE environment will be in place ahead of the front that could produce strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. 0-6km bulk shear progged to be around around 40 kt, however instability is a bit more uncertain with global models showing mainly around 500-1000 J/Kg, although some HiRes models are over 1000 J/Kg. Current forecast sides with the development of OVC skies associated with the warm front, but there still remains a chance of at least some partial clearing later in the day ahead of the cold front, which could allow some of the higher CAPEs advertised to come to fruition. Spc has the region in a Marginal Risk of severe storms for Wednesday (level 1 of 5). Best forcing will be north of the area and most guidance keeps precip amounts around a quarter inch, however could see higher amounts in thunderstorms.
Run to run consistency among the models continues to be poor for the system next weekend with the possibility for it to be suppressed to the south, so confidence is not that high in the forecast details, but it is encouraging to see a more active pattern in the models. While rainfall amounts through the week will not have much impact with alleviating the drought, hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will help reduce the wildfire threat across the region.
18z Monday through Saturday MVFR conditions continue early this afternoon, but that is expected to quickly change as skies clear from north to south across ENC. Vfr conditions should return to all except the immediate coast in the next hour or two, and then by mid afternoon clear skies are expected along the coast. Ne breeze will persist through early tonight, but then calming winds and clear skies will bring the threat of some radiational fog development. With the late day clearing, there is some uncertainty with how much low level moisture will mix out, and therefore what the crossover temps may be. With good radiational cooling conditions expected, despite the crossover temp uncertainty, there is a good chance of at least patchy fog across interior ENC, with a chance for some more dense fog to develop if low level moisture does not sufficiently mix out. Any fog that does form should dissipate around sunrise, and light winds and VFR conditions are expected tomorrow.
Outlook: High pressure and generally VFR conditions are expected through early Wed. Another front and weak low may bring sub VFR with some showers and isolated storms Wed afternoon through evening, exiting later Wed night with a return to VFR through the rest of the week. Winds generally in the 5-15 kt range through the period.
N to NEerly 10-20G25kt winds with seas around 5-8 ft continue across the waters this afternoon but conditions will continue to gradually improve through tonight. Scas over Pamlico Sound and coastal waters remain in effect, stepping down this evening with PamSound scheduled to drop off by sunset, but odds are this will be able to be cancelled earlier than that. Elevated seas will keep SCA conditions across the nearshore coastal waters into mid week.
Outlook: Northerly winds continue to ease on Tue becoming less than 15 kt as high pressure builds overhead. Seas will remain elevated, however, with SCA conditions persisting across portions of the nearshore coastal waters into Wednesday. Another low pressure system is progged to pass north of the area Wednesday night and could see low end SCA conditions over the nearshore coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet redevelop late Wednesday afternoon night into Thursday.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 10 pm EDT this evening for amz135. Small craft advisory until 10 am EDT Wednesday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Wednesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz156-158.
