Key MESSAGE 1, Vertically stacked low pressure will meander off the NC and Mid-Atlantic coast through mid week bringing prolonged strong north to northeasterly winds across ENC. The sfc low is approx 270 mi east of Cape Hatteras and will only very slowly drift northward over the next few days as the system remains cut-off from the mean flow aloft. It is not until Wednesday night or Thursday that the low will begin to accelerate away from the East Coast as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
There remains some variability among the models with the placement of the low as it drifts northward over the next couple of days, especially beyond Tuesday as some guidance now has the low a bit farther northeast of the area allowing the winds to diminish some. However, sufficient solutions keeps the low close enough to the coast that Gale Force conditions may persist along the coast through mid week.
Tight pressure gradients between the offshore low and high pressure across the Eastern CONUS will bring strong north to northeast winds across the region with the strongest winds across the Outer Banks where gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from Duck to Ocracoke, and continues through Tuesday.
The strong winds continue to bring large surf along the coast as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have recently reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 is now closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe, and ferry service remains suspended.
Each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the dunes, further, and the threat of additional impacts to Hwy 12 remain. Soundside flooding is also a concern along southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco, Ocracoke, areas of Downeast Carteret Co and locations along the Neuse and Bay Rivers. For some areas, water levels may reach the highest now that the wind direction has shifted to more of a north or even north-northwest direction (specifically for Ocracoke and Hatteras Villages). A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Outer Banks and several counties along the sounds and rivers where northerly winds will bring elevated water levels. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for Cape Lookout and points north through the OBX.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Pleasantly cooler air mass that has advected in will remain with us through at least mid week with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.
As the low meanders offshore, some wrap around rain showers may occasionally sneak back onshore, with best chances on the OBX over the next couple of days.
00z Tuesday through Saturday Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.
Satellite imagery, and surface analysis, this evening suggests the Nor'easter offshore east of the Carolinas is becoming better organized and has strengthened some. The pressure gradient around the system is the strongest along the coast of ENC, and this should keep winds gusty through the night at KMRH. For the TAF sites further inland, wind gusts shouldn't be as frequent. However, for those sites, a strengthening low-level jet overhead is expected to lead to an increased risk of LLWS impacts, especially from 06z-14z. The occurrence of 20kt+ gusts is then expected to increase for all TAF sites with daytime mixing on Tuesday. Dry air continues to get pulled south on the west side of the Nor'easter, and this should limit the risk of sub-VFR CIGs over the next 24 hours.
Outlook (Tuesday night through Saturday): VFR and continued breezy conditions are expected to continue through the week as the offshore low remains well east of the coast and high pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.
Very dangerous marine conditions will continue as low pressure deepens well off the NC coast but cont to supply a steady fetch of strong n-nerly winds into ENC, with east northeasterly swells. Latest obs show N-NE winds of 20-30 kt with gusts 30-40 kt. Seas continue 10-14 ft closest to shore and 12-18 ft likely offshore. Little change expected over the coastal waters through the period, though across the rivers and northern sounds winds will begin to grad ease overnight.
Outlook (Tuesday night through Saturday): Conditions will be slow to improve over the coastal and offshore waters, but by mid week will start to see some improvement. Breezy winds will continue through late week, with winds and seas increasing again this weekend. Gale force winds through Wed and Wed night, possibly returning to portions of the waters this weekend.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 2 am EDT Tuesday for ncz046-094- 194. Beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-203>205. Beach hazards statement from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for ncz195-196-199-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT Tuesday for ncz196. High surf advisory until 8 am EDT Wednesday for ncz196-204. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT Wednesday for ncz203. High surf advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for ncz203-205. Wind advisory until 6 pm EDT Tuesday for ncz203>205. Coastal flood warning until 8 pm EDT Wednesday for ncz204-205. Marine, gale warning until midnight EDT tonight for amz131-158-230. Gale warning until midnight EDT Wednesday night for amz135. Small craft advisory until 4 am EDT Tuesday for amz136. Small craft advisory until 6 pm EDT Wednesday for amz137. Gale warning until 2 am EDT Thursday for amz150-152-154-156. Gale warning until 6 am EDT Thursday for amz180-182-184-186. Gale warning until 8 am EDT Wednesday for amz188. Gale warning until 6 pm EDT Wednesday for amz231.
