Key MESSAGE 1, Strong high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure well off the SE coast will result in a period of breezy to strong NE winds through early this week with strongest winds along the coast, especially south of Cape Hatteras where gradients will be tightest. This, combined with upcoming King Tide cycle lead to additional minor coastal impacts (coastal flooding and rough surf).
For Hatteras Island, seas offshore continue in the 7-9 foot range and will remain in this range today, and then slowly subside through the coming week, but long period swells will continue to cause issues for vulnerable areas in conjunction with the building King Tides. For ocean-side: high tide is are 1930EDT tonight and between 0730-0800EDT MON. Soundside high tides lag from 2 to 3 hours behind the oceanside tides. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe.
Coastal flooding will be likely well into this week. Even with winds diminishing by mid week, "sunny day" coastal flooding across much of the tidal regions of ENC around times of high tide will continue through at least mid week, then slowly improve as the King Tides ease later in the week. The areas most susceptible to street flooding will be low lying areas along the Neuse and Bay rivers as well as Downeast Carteret County to North Topsail Beach which has already been seen during the last two morning's high tides. Some flooding occured with this morning's high tide in Beaufort County, so have added them to the advisories with water levels only getting higher through midweek.
There is still potential that the headlines for TUE and WED may need to be upgraded to coastal flood warnings. Will wait for this decision after we see what MON morning's high tide brings. In addition, if seas increase any further than currently forecast, a period of coastal flood warnings may be needed for parts of the OBX, and will need to monitor trends.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Pockets of moisture continue to be squeezed between the inland high and offshore low, though almost all guidance keeps the bulk of precip activity off the coast and perhaps skirting OBX. Most areas remain dry today, along with seasonably cool temps in the low 70s interior to 60s coast. Pleasantly cooler and drier air mass will remain with us through early this week, with near climo highs, to slightly below avg lows, esp Sun and Mon nights when good radiational cooling yet again sets up with lows well down into the 40s with some 30s again possible TUE morning when the high pressure center is closer to ENC allowing nocturnal winds to fall off harder and skies to clear more than the last few nights. Hts/thicknesses then begin to build by mid week, with temps climbing back above climo with highs in the mid 70s, then upper 70s by weeks end. Lows will remain closer to climo as dry airmass remains with a large diurnal temp range.
18z Sunday through Friday VFR conditions cont across ENC over the next 24 hours. Diurnal CU AoA FL040 so no significant impact to operations is forecast today. Ne winds 10-15 kt with gusts up near 20 kts during the daytime mixing period, 30kt over the immediate coast (MRH), then becoming light again by this evening. Fewer clouds and slightly weaker winds expected for MON as high nears the FA.
Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Generally, expect VFR conditions to continue through the next several days with strong high pressure building in from the north. However, coastal sections could see MVFR STCU at times. Winds become calm MON night/early TUE as strong inversion develops with high pres overhead with skc and calm winds, opening potential for impactful fog to develop.
High pressure building in from the north will act to tighten the pressure gradient across the region with NE winds 15-20 kt with gust cont 25-30 kt, 35-40kt gusts over coastal and offshore waters S of Cape Lookout. Lesser chances for gusty SCA winds for Alligator/Albemarle as wind fcst has eased here, but remaining nearshore waters including Pamlico and Neuse remain with SCA conditions. Winds decrease later tonight and Mon with approaching high pres, allowing for marine headlines to begin stepping down a few hours after sunset tonight.
Outlook (Mon through Thu): High pres will build in early to mid week with winds diminishing significantly, though seas will be slow to subside, and longer period high swells appear to cont as advected 6+ ft swells affect esp the southern/ctrl waters south of Oregon Inlet through mid/late week.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 2 pm EDT Thursday for ncz080-094- 194>196-199-203>205. Beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 199-203>205. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 am EDT Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory until midnight EDT tonight for amz137. Small craft advisory until 4 am EDT Tuesday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 5 pm EDT Thursday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for amz156. Gale warning until 9 pm EDT this evening for amz158. Gale warning until 2 am EDT Monday for amz188. Small craft advisory until 10 pm EDT this evening for amz231.
