A warm front will attempt to move through by this evening with next chance for rain followed by a weak cold front. An arctic cold front moves through late Monday with a return to cold through early next week.
Until 7 am Saturday morning As of 1920 Friday,
Key Messages,
- Patches of drizzle possible mainly E of HWY17
- Rain chances along OBX increase tonight
Primary focus tonight will be developing weak low pressure system traveling NEward just offshore of the Carolinas. Center of circulation just off the NC coast near Cape Fear. This low will lift northward off OBX overnight, dragging a warm front north with it, as shortwave trough dives out of the Midwest, and resultant low- level convergence will provide the focal point for modest shower risk predominantly along the immediate coast through Ocracoke and Cape Hatteras, though spotty activity is possible over the mainland E of HWY17. Qpf amounts shouldn't exceed more than a tenth of an inch or so. All precip expected to be completely offshore by 0300EST. For the evening update, HiRes guidance has picked up on a possibility of a pocket of moisture in the lower levels working NEward from the bottom half of the state with the front leading to fog and/or low level stratus development in SWern zones in the early morning hours. As the low lifts away to the NE and light SFC winds veer from SWerly to NWerly, this pocket of increased moisture will advect toward the coast before burning off and mixing out. Have added fog with VIS 1-3mi to show this potential.
Clouds will linger through the overnight period and diurnal curve into Saturday morning will be remarkably flat as lows hover in the mid 40s for the coastal plain and north of HWY 264, low to mid 50s elsewhere.
7 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday As of 225 PM Friday,
Key Messages,
- No impactful weather expected tomorrow.
Warm frontal passage overnight will quickly be replaced as boundary advances southward again as a cold front, this time with a surge of drier air in its wake. Mostly sunny skies expected inland, although increase of CAA-associated strato-cu offshore will likely make for more overcast and dreary conditions along the Outer Banks. Stark temperature gradient, typical of northeasterly flow regimes, anticipated with upper 60s to near 70 south and west of US 70, but only 50s for highs across NOBX and areas adjacent the Albemarle Sound.
Saturday night through Friday As of 115 AM Friday,
Key Messages,
- Above normal conditions Saturday, Sunday and Monday with temperatures in the 60s and 70s!
- A pattern changing arctic cold front will move through the area late Monday with well below normal conditions returning through early to mid next week
Saturday is looking to be especially nice. With high pressure ridging over our area, H925 temps climb to +8C, which will help part of our area making a run toward 70 for highs! 925 temps cool about 1.5 degrees Sunday, and with increasing high clouds, temps won't be quite as warm or generally in the 60s.
The main trend with our arctic cold continues to be to slow it down. At one point a later Sunday FROPA is now later Monday. With strong warm air advection (WAA) Monday, highs will surge into the middle 70s or roughly average highs for late December for West Palm Beach, Fl! A thin line of showers may accompany the front Monday evening, but the bigger headline will be the abrupt return to winter. Below temps expected Tuesday and beyond, with highs in the 40s to near 50 and lows mainly in the 20s. Ouch!
00z Saturday through Wednesday As of 1830 Friday,
Key Messages
- Current MVFR CIGs beginning to scatter out
- OAJ may see some fog and low level stratus in early morning hours
- LLWS impacts likely tonight into early Saturday morning
- Flight cats improve to VFR after sunrise with breezy NEerly winds SAT.
- MVFR CIGs tomorrow evening along Hatt and NOBX
Continued low-level moisture advection through the later afternoon and early evening has led to MVFR CIGs. Weak lift in tandem with the increasing moisture appears supportive of periods of -DZ as CIGs lower. At this time, the -DZ has been light enough to limit reductions to VIS, hence no mention in TAFs. The peak in lift and moisture is expected to occur between 00z and 06z tonight, and this is when IFR CIGs may develop, but the likelihood of this happening appears to have decreased from previous TAF iterations. Have continued mention of the SCT and FEW IFR deck just to keep the possibility in pilots' minds. One complicating factor in this pattern is a drying Werly flow that is developing tonight, allowing lower CIGs to begin scattering and limiting the potential for IFR in the 00-06Z timeframe. Hires guidance has picked up on a possibility of a pocket of moisture in the lower levels working NEward from the bottom half of the state with the front leading to fog and/or low level stratus encroaching SWern zones in the early morning hours. As the low lifts away to the NE and light SFC winds veer from SWerly to NWerly, this pocket of increased moisture will advect toward the coast before burning off and mixing out. Have added prevailing MVFR fog with TEMPO IFR for OAJ. Low CIGs are expected to mix out completely on Saturday as drier air continues to filter in from the west and north, lowering the risk of sub VFR conditions for TAF sites. Along the NEern coast of the FA (Hatteras Island and NOBX), lower CIGs around FL015 are expected to sink SWward from the NE on the backside of the departing low SAT evening and night.
Lastly, a strengthening westerly low-level jet aloft looks supportive of several hours of LLWS impacts tonight into early Saturday morning.
Outlook: Periods of sub-VFR CIGs will be possible SUN evening and into the overnight with moisture underneath the inversion and again MON ahead of the approaching cold front. A period of gusty southwest winds appears likely, with gusts as high as 20-25kt accompanying early week FROPA.
As of 235 PM Friday,
Key Messages,
- Multiple rounds of SCA likely through the weekend
- Still eyeing a risk of Gales for at least offshore waters early next week
Seas remain elevated this afternoon for most offshore waters despite easing northeasterly winds behind a stalled cold front, with seas around 5-7 feet especially from Hatteras northward. Weather regime over the area will be a bit chaotic as weak wave of low pressure lifts off the Outer Banks tonight, dragging a warm front with it and quickly veering winds south and then westerly by midnight. This will not last long as frontal boundary pushes back south Sat afternoon, bringing a renewed surge of northerly winds at around 20 kt sustained with higher gusts.
Offshore zones and soundside waters will likely experience multiple lulls in winds and seas with the rapid changing of winds. Water south of Ocracoke Inlet will have the longest lull and have them SCA free through 06z. Zones north of here have had their SCA extended through Sunday evening. Pamlico, Croatan and Roanoke sounds will feel post-frontal northerly surge Sat afternoon and have posted a short-lived SCA for these waters through late Sat.
Outlook: Winds temporarily improve over the weekend, but seas may remain at or above 6 ft as long period swell moves into marine waters, especially central waters off Hatteras. Winds increase again Monday morning in advance of a strong cold front with widespread Small Craft conditions and possibly Gale conditions developing. Waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke may be under continuous headlines for the next several days.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm EST Saturday for amz135-231. Small craft advisory until 7 pm EST Sunday for amz150-152-154. Small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 pm EST Saturday for amz156-158.
