Key MESSAGE 1, Subtropical Storm Josephine, located approx 400 NE of Cape Hatteras, will begin to accelerate northeastward today as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Northeast CONUS. While winds will continue to diminish across the region today, large surf will continue to bring coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast, especially along Hatteras Island where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe. The next high tides are around 5 AM and 5 PM today. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras Island and a Coastal Flood Advisory for the Northern Outer Banks. Have cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory for Ocracoke Island. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for the beaches from Duck to Cape Hatteras where surf heights 8-12 ft will continue today.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Pleasantly cooler air mass will remain with us through the next several days with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast. Good radiational cooling conditions early this morning with clear skies and calm winds inland from the coast have allowed the coldest locations to drop into the upper 30s. Could see a few upper 30s again tonight with clear skies and calm winds expected. A bit more mixing ensues Friday night as strong high pressure builds in from the north preventing temps from cratering.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Strong high pressure building in from the north and low pressure well off the SE coast will result in a period of breezy to strong NE winds returning late Friday through the weekend with strongest winds along the coast, especially south of Cape Hatteras where gradients will be tightest. This, combined with developing King Tides could lead to additional minor coastal impacts (coastal flooding and rough surf).
12z Thursday through Monday Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period under mainly clear skies. Good radiational cooling conditions expected again tonight which may allow patchy shallow fog to develop with vsbys occasionally dropping between 1-3SM at times but little to no impacts expected. Winds will be lighter today, mainly around 5-10 kt. Coastal terminals could see gusts to around 20 kt
Outlook (Friday through Monday): VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next several days with strong high pressure building in from the north.
Conditions continue to slowly improve across the waters. Latest obs show N-NNE winds 5-15 kt across the rivers and sounds, and 10-20 kt across the coastal waters, with seas 3-6 ft south of Lookout and 10-15+ ft north. Subtropical Storm Josephine will accelerate northeastward today and expect seas to continue to slowly subside to around 2-5 ft across the southern waters and 5-9 ft across the central and northern waters by late tonight.
Outlook (Friday through Monday): Winds and seas increasing again Friday into the weekend as strong high pressure builds in from the north. This is expected to lead to extended period of SCA conditions, possibly gales across portions of the outer waters. Gradients will be tightest across the southern waters with highest probability for Gales across the outer waters south of Cape Hatteras as well as near shore Onslow Bay.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203-205. Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz205. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Monday for amz150-152-154. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT this afternoon for amz156- 158.
