Key MESSAGE 1, Vertically stacked low pressure will meander off the NC and Mid-Atlantic coast through mid week bringing prolonged strong north to northeasterly winds across ENC. The sfc low was approx 200 mi east of Cape Hatteras last evening but has since drifted eastward to around 260 mi from Cape Hatteras early this morning allowing winds to diminish some across the region. However, guidance continues to wobble the low off the coast while deepening as it slowly lifts northward off the Mid- Atlantic coast as the system remains cut-off from the mean flow aloft. Winds are expected to increase again this afternoon and evening, with another surge potentially on Wednesday, so am reluctant to make many wholesale changes to the current headlines at this time. It is not until Thursday that the low will begin to accelerate away from the East Coast as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Tight pressure gradients between the offshore low and high pressure across the Eastern CONUS will bring strong north to northeast winds across the region with the strongest winds across the Outer Banks where gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from Duck to Ocracoke through this evening.
The strong winds continue to bring large surf along the coast as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have recently reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe, and ferry service remains suspended.
Each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the dunes, further, and the threat of additional impacts to Hwy 12 remain. Minor soundside flooding is also a concern along southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco, Ocracoke, areas of Downeast Carteret Co. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Outer Banks and East Carteret County. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for Cape Lookout and points north through the OBX.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Pleasantly cooler air mass that has advected in will remain with us through at least mid week with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.
07z Tuesday through Saturday Low pressure will continue to slowly lift nwd off the Mid- Atlantic coast bringing breezy northerly winds through the TAF period. Inland terminals have decoupled sufficiently with winds diminishing below 10 kt with early this morning bringing a risk of LLWS impacts with a strong LLJ in place. Wind shear threat will end by mid morning as deeper mixing ensues with gusts to around 20 kt inland. Coast terminals will see the strongest winds with gusts around 25-35 kt today, strongest along the Outer Banks.
Otherwise, pred VFR conditions are expected to prevail with mainly clear skies across most rtes, though the Outer Banks may see periods of STCU that may occasionally drop to MVFR.
Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): VFR and breezy conditions are expected to continue through much the week as the offshore low remains well east of the coast and high pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.
Very dangerous marine conditions will continue through the week as low pressure deepens well off the NC coast but continue to supply a steady fetch of strong n-nerly winds into ENC with large east- northeasterly swells.
The low has drifted a bit eastward early this morning allowing winds to diminish some and latest obs show N-NE winds around 15-25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. Seas continue 10-15 ft closest to shore and 12-20 ft likely offshore. While winds have dropped below Gales for much of the waters, guidance increases winds again this afternoon and evening and potentially again on Wednesday as the low will continue to deepen as it wobbles off the coast while slowly drifting northward over the next couple of days, so will maintain the Gale Warning for most of the coastal waters as well as the Pamlico, Croatan and Roanoke Sounds at this time. Will not see much improvement in the seas through mid week.
Outlook (Thursday through Saturday): Winds will diminish sufficiently Thursday that the sounds and rivers are expected to briefly drop below SCA criteria, however very large seas as high as 10-15 ft will continue over the coastal waters. Winds and seas increasing again Friday into the weekend as strong high pressure builds in from the north.
Nc, beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz195-196-199-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196. High surf advisory until 8 am EDT Wednesday for ncz196-204. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT Wednesday for ncz203. High surf advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for ncz203-205. Wind advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ncz203>205. Coastal flood warning until 8 pm EDT Wednesday for ncz204-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for amz131-230. Gale warning until 8 pm EDT Wednesday for amz135-186. Small craft advisory until 6 pm EDT Wednesday for amz137. Gale warning until 11 pm EDT Wednesday for amz150-152-154. Gale warning until 2 am EDT Wednesday for amz156. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for amz158. Gale warning until 2 am EDT Thursday for amz180-182-184. Gale warning until midnight EDT tonight for amz188. Gale warning until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz231.
