Key MESSAGE 1, An impressive upper level trough will dig across the Plains on Sunday and will become more negatively tilted as it moves east across the Mississippi River Valley on Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through Sunday evening and into Monday. A pre-frontal surface trough will develop through the day on Sunday, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms and backing low level winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase through Monday and peak with the FROPA Monday night. This front will produce a strongly forced line of convection, and with ample deep layer shear and 0-3 km SRH, there remains potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes with a lesser risk for severe hail. Destabilization could be significantly inhibited due to cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms associated with the pre- frontal surface trough, but even meager instability could still produce strong to severe thunderstorms with the FROPA.
SPC has eastern NC in an uncommon 30% probability area for Day 4, and AI NWP forecasts remain quite bullish on severe potential. In fact, the probabilities here have trended upward slightly in the past 24 hours. The previously mentioned NSSL GEFS total severe probability remains at an elevated 15-30%. Users should keep a close eye on future forecasts as details come into better focus.
18z Friday through Wednesday Pred VFR conditions currently remain over ENC this afternoon as high pressure gradually pushes offshore this afternoon. Forecast calls for these VFR conditions to continue to persist through the rest of the period. One minor caveat to this is while winds will likely remain high enough to keep us well mixed through tonight, there is a low chance winds ease enough towards sunrise on Sat for some patchy fog mainly along our SW'rn zones. Href probs only put a <20% probability of visibility of less than 5 miles across portions of Duplin and Onslow Counties so will preclude any mention of fog in the forecast but will monitor trends on future updates in case chances increase.
Otherwise S'rly winds this afternoon gust to about 15-20 kts and eventually veer winds to the SSW by evening. Winds will ease tonight especially near sunrise on Sat but will continue to veer to more of a SW to W direction.
Outlook, Pred VFR conditions expected through Saturday. The next frontal system is expected to impact ENC Sunday through Monday bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms.
Boating conditions remain benign this afternoon as high pressure moves offshore, but an uptick in winds is expected as south to southwesterly winds increase ahead of powerful and compact low pressure crossing the Great Lakes this afternoon. Winds have trended down a bit from yesterday's forecast but still show a period of 15-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kt, primarily offshore. The odds of SCA over Pamlico Sound are now marginal, but will retain this headline given spread in some model guidance. Seas will respond by building back to 4-5 ft across the central waters with isolated six footers. Conditions will improve by overnight with winds becoming westerly and decreasing to around 15 kt by sunrise.
Outlook: Pleasant conditions will stick around through Saturday but deteriorate once again on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front forecast to cross the area on Monday.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 am EDT Saturday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Saturday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am EDT Saturday for amz156.
