Key MESSAGE 1, Today and WED, less cloud cover and warmer temps as highs get into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s each day, AppTs will be near 100 for most of the area, though SWern zones could exceed 105deg for a few hours. Because of this, have issued a Heat Advisory for these areas this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers and tstorms and increased cloud coverage from debris clouds will end the heat threat earlier in the day than previous days, but heat for areas that don't see rain will likely exceed criteria. Greater coverage of storms WED keeps T/MaxTs at bay.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An unsettled pattern will persist over the next few days with several factors forecast to increase shower and thunderstorm chances this week.
Front that was stalled over the area yesterday has lifted back into VA last night, "warm- sectoring" the FA once again today until a strong front cross the area late WED/THU.
Today features a slight dip in available moisture with drier 850-700mb layer getting pushed up the SECONUS coast ahead of the next upper trough which will be pushing SE across the Ohio River Valley, leading to more typical summer-time PoPs of 20-40% through this evening, quickly coming to an end after sunset. Greatest dynamics and moisture lie to the north and west of the area where SPC has an Enhanced risk (lvl 3/5) centered across the MidAtlantic, with a slight risk (lvl 2/5) stretching SWward into Wern TN. Enc is clipped with a sliver of Slight and Marginal risks (lvl 2 & 1/5). These storms in our area are expected to be isolated to widely scattered, and relatively fast moving compared to the slow movers we've had lately. Faster storm motions and little bit less atmospheric moisture will lead to a lower flooding rain concern.
A strong front is forecast to approach and cross the area mid to late week. 00z HiRes model suite has come in slower with FROPA than previous days' runs. It now looks like the front will not arrive on our NWern doorstep until early morning THU. So WED night could be another scenario where convection built up during the afternoon and evening WED approaches from the NW and entering the area, but deteriorating some and losing momentum with loss of daytime heating, pulsing back up THU morning. These likely periods of showers and thunderstorms pose the next threat for severe weather. Upper level pattern for this frontal passage appears more supportive of stronger storms with a sharper trough aloft digging further S than this weekend's trough. Moisture increases ahead of this front with low to midlevel flow opening up moisture advection channel from the E side of what is now Tropical Storm Bertha. The National Hurricane Center continues issuing advisories for Bertha, but poses no tropical threat to ENC at this time, as it is forecast to meander slowly W across the Nern Gulf of America.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Wed/Thu stronger front is forecast to make it through the entirety of the land area of ENC, but still stall offshore. This will lead to mostly N-NEerly flow late week into the weekend, cutting down on the heat (low to mid 80s/upper 60s splits into the weekend). Severe threat appears minimal behind the midweek front, but the multi day period of showers in the forecast could lead to hydro issues.
06z Tuesday through Saturday VFR flight cats are expected to continue outside of convection tonight, though there is a slight chance of MVFR flight cats due to patchy fog and/or some low level stratus before light winds pick back up behind the warm front lifting Nward through VA. More climo PoPs today keeping VFR probs higher. 20-40% tsra this afternoon working from SW to NE. Shower activity ends shortly after sunset. Swern winds strengthen through the day becoming gusty this afternoon. Expect these winds to remain in place overnight, 10-15kt, keeping fog threat down. Low level stratus possible, but expected to remain SCT or less at this point.
Outlook (Tue afternoon through Saturday): A stronger front approaches late WED, renewing stronger shower and thunderstorm chances WED into THU. This front will stall offshore where it will linger into the weekend, keeping rain and subVFR flight cat threat up into this weekend.
Winds SWerly across all waters at 5-10 kts inside with 10-20kt outside. Seas predominantly wind waves 2-4ft@6sec. The pressure gradient tightens through the day as a strong front begins to approach from the N and W allowing winds to increase further to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts across all waters this afternoon with 4-7 ft seas. Have issued gale watches for overnight tonight for Pamlico Sound and offshore waters N of Ocracoke Inlet where a large chunk of these zones could see extended periods of 34-35kt gusts. There is potential for a few hours of localized 34kt gusts over coastal waters adjacent to Oregon Inlet from around sunset to 0200EDT, but the majority of these zones will stay around the 30kt gusts range. Showers and tstorm chances become confined to the GStream waters overnight tonight.
Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): For the outer waters, elevated winds and seas will continue into Thurs. This is in association with a stronger front that is forecast to approach and cross regional waters late Wed into Thurs, keeping elevated winds and seas in place and increased tstorm chances, mainly. Front moves through by Thurs with winds shifting to a NE'rly direction and easing to a 10-15 kts with seas falling to 2-5 ft thus ending the SCA threat by Thurs night.
Nc, heat advisory from noon today to 6 pm EDT this evening for ncz090>092-094-193-194-198-199. Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz195-196- 199-204-205. Marine, small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 6 pm EDT Wednesday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 pm EDT this evening for amz135. Gale watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for amz135. Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 2 am EDT Thursday for amz136-137. Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 am EDT Thursday for amz150. Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 2 pm EDT Thursday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 am EDT Thursday for amz156-158. Gale watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for amz180. Gale watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for amz182-184.
