High pressure moves offshore today ahead of a fast moving front that will push across the area tonight. High pressure builds in again Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night ahead of a potent cold front that will move through on Sunday.
Until 6 am Thursday morning As of 12 PM Wednesday,
Key Messages,
- Warmer with gusty winds ahead of a dry cold front
Latest surface obs show a surface low over southern Michigan with its cold front moving across the Mississippi River Valley. This front has slowed a little, and is now not expected to reach ENC until late tonight. The gradient will continue to pinch ahead of this front, causing southwest winds to become increasingly more gusty this afternoon and evening. Inland, winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph. Along the coast, winds will be 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Cloud cover will increase as the front approaches, but no precipitation is expected. Highs will range from the low 50s across the coastal plain to upper 50s along the coast.
Tonight, CAA will take over behind the front. Although skies will be clear, breezy winds will keep the boundary layer mixed and prevent us from radiating as well as we did last night, so lows will be slightly milder in the mid 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s along the coast.
6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday As of 12 PM Wednesday,
Key Messages,
- Cool, dry, and breezy
The front will be offshore by tomorrow morning with high pressure building in its wake. Most of the area will spend the day under sunny skies, save for some lingering scattered low clouds along the Outer Banks. It'll feel pretty chilly tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 40s paired with breezy northwest winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph at the beaches.
Thursday night through Wednesday As of 12 PM Wednesday,
Key Messages,
- High pressure brings cool temperatures and dry conditions through late week
- A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on Sunday
- Wind chills in the single digits to low teens possible Sunday night/Monday morning
Thursday night through Friday, Temps will tank Thursday night as the high becomes centered over the region and the winds go light to calm under clear skies. Coastal plain lows are expected to drop to the mid to upper 20s with the Outer Banks in the mid to upper 30s. High pressure will slide offshore on Friday as a shortwave trough moves across the area. Temps will be slightly warmer, ranging from the upper 40s across northern zones to low to mid 50s across southern zones. No precipitation is expected with this shortwave as the better forcing is displaced to our north. However, there will be an increase in cloud cover, especially across northern zones. Friday night lows will range from the low 30s across the coastal plain to upper 30s and low 40s along the coast.
Saturday through Sunday Night, A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Saturday will be very pleasant with sunny skies and the warmest temps of the week with highs in the mid to upper 50s area wide. The upper trough will dig across the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a potent cold front sending a blast of Arctic air well into the southern states. There are still some timing differences with the FROPA, and an earlier trend would result in cooler high temps, but the current forecast is for highs to reach the mid to upper 40s across the coastal plain and mid 50s at the coast. This airmass is fairly moisture starved, but there remains a slight chance to low end chance of rain or a rain/snow mix. Most notable will be the dangerously cold low temps Sunday night/Monday morning, which are forecast to drop to the upper teens across the coastal plain and mid to upper 20s along the Outer Banks. These temps, paired with the gusty NW winds behind the front, will drop wind chills into the single digits to low teens for most of the area.
Monday through Wednesday, Arctic high pressure will build in behind the front on Monday and temps may struggle to reach the 40s. Tuesday will begin our warming trend with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday.
00z Thursday through Monday As of 620 PM Wed,
Key Messages
- VFR expected through the TAF period with a window of LLWS concerns tonight
Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with sct high clouds early tonight ahead of an approaching cold front and SW winds. The cold front will then push through the area later tonight, but with limited available moisture, only expect some mid-level clouds to accompany the frontal passage. A few hours of LLWS will be likely early tonight with strengthening low- level jet. Flow becomes NW behind the front late tonight into Thu, transitioning to light and variable Thursday evening as high builds into the region.
Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period.
As of 1:15 PM Wednesday,
Key Messages
- Southwest winds increase today ahead of a cold front with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for most waters and Gales south of Oregon Inlet
Today through Thursday, Southwest winds will continue to increase through today ahead of a potent cold front and peak late tonight. A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet for southwest to west winds at 20-30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scas are in effect for all other waters (except the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers). Seas will build to 7-10 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 4-7 ft to the north. Winds will be out of the NW by tomorrow morning and will decrease through the day with seas following suit. By late tomorrow afternoon/early evening, all waters will have sub-SCA conditions.
Saturday through Monday, Better boating conditions are expected Friday and Saturday but will be short-lived as another potent cold front is set to cross the area on Sunday. The wind forecast has trended more pessimistic with this update with Gales expected to develop by Sunday evening. Conditions will improve on Monday as high pressure moves back in.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 am EST Thursday for amz131-137- 230-231. Small craft advisory until 1 pm EST Thursday for amz135. Small craft advisory until noon EST Thursday for amz150. Gale warning until 6 am EST Thursday for amz152-154-156-158.
