Key MESSAGE 1, A weak area of low pressure meandering off the NC coast will continue to slowly drift away from the region tonight. Temps will warm slowly into the low 90s inland by Wednesday and mid 90s on Thursday. Despite the warming, relatively low TD's in the 60s to around 70 will not make it feel much hotter, with heat indices no higher than the 90s through Wednesday, possibly reaching around 100 by Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The advertised heat and humidity will build into ENC from the north and west Friday into the weekend. High impact heat and humidity is expected, as the peak of it will be during the busy 4th of July holiday weekend (Saturday through Monday) with highs expected to reach well into the 90s inland, possibly reaching 100 in some locales, with upper 80s to mid 90s beaches. The combination of the heat and humidity will push heat indices towards the 105 degree mark or slightly higher this weekend. Overnight lows will also be warm due to the increased TD's, with lows around 80 near the coast, and mid 70s interior.
NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values peak Saturday into Monday in the major (coast) to extreme (inland) range. The chance for extreme heat risk has come down a bit on Saturday and Sunday to around 40-60% inland with the compounding days and little relief during the nighttime periods. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside this weekend into early next week should monitor the forecast trends.
With the ridge of high pressure building in, a cap will develop with little to no shower or thunderstorm relief esp on Saturday. On Sunday, the ridge may break down just enough for some scattered storms to develop mainly inland zones, but the chance for rain is only 20-40% at this time. Better precip chances expected early next week.
18z Tuesday through Sunday Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Probs for stratus are even lower late tonight, still less than 20%.
Outlook (Wednesday night through Sun): Dry weather is expected to prevail with pred VFR conditions, but could see patchy fog and low stratus each morning. Winds will be light through the period with high pres in vicinity.
Latest obs show NE-E winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-6 ft (highest across the outer central waters). Winds will continue to veer easterly overnight as high pressure builds in and weak low pressure lingers off the SE coast. Will continue SCA for the outer central waters through the overnight with seas up to 6 ft, though based on obs this seems a bit marginal at this time. E-SE winds 5-15 kt Wed with seas mainly 3-5 ft.
Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): The Bermuda high becomes dominant mid to late week with light winds 5-15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 5 am EDT Wednesday for amz152-154.
