Key MESSAGE 1, All convective activity has moved offshore but a few isolated showers remain possible across the coastal plain this evening. Strong northeasterly winds with gusts to 15-20 mph inland and 30-35 mph near the coast will persist through this evening as stout CAA builds in. This will knock tonight's lows down to the mid/upper 40s inland and 50s along the coast. High pressure will build in tomorrow with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s inland and 60s along the coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A stacked low cutting across the southern extent of the Great Lakes and high pressure migrating offshore brings warm and moist air across the Carolinas mid week ahead of the next front set to cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday. This system will have decent dynamics to work with but current timing is working against it with limited instability due to the FROPA being outside of peak heating. Will continue to monitor the potential for severe weather with this system. High pressure transits ECONUS and sets up offshore through late week leading to a warming trend and dry weather into the weekend.
06z Tuesday through Saturday Cooler high pressure continues to advance over ENC terminals this morning in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Winds remain elevated in most areas south of a line from PGV to OCW, but north of here conditions are light and variable. Upstream obs show fairly widespread fog developing along the NC/VA border, and reliable near-term guidance shows some of this attempting to advect towards the inner coastal plain (Martin Co. Airport is already reporting under 3 mi). Out of all TAF terminals, PGV looks like the most likely candidate for lower visibilities and maintained this from the previous cycle. For all other terminals, probabilities of sub-VFR conditions have declined considerably and shifted these TAFs in that direction.
More pleasant flying conditions expected today with northeasterly post-frontal flow becoming dominated in the afternoon by sound and sea breeze circulations. Vfr conditions prevail with only some spotty cu fields expected in the afternoon.
Outlook: Confidence is high on sub-VFR conditions mid-week when the next system will move through the area with additional showers and thunderstorms.
A strong northeasterly surge is spreading south across the waters and will continue into tonight. This surge will bring strong winds with gusts to 30-40 kt across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters. Frequent Gale force gusts across the 0-60 nm zones from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout will persist through around midnight, gradually relaxing into Tuesday morning. Gale force gusts are expected to be more brief across the 20-60 nm zones across the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet and south of Cape Lookout. Seas will peak tonight at 5-10 ft and subside to 3-7 ft by Tuesday evening.
Outlook (Tuesday night into late week): Winds will veer to the south Tuesday night and decrease to 10-15 kt. Scas will be needed once the coastal water gales drop off after midnight tonight with seas over outer portions of these waters remaining 6+ft through Tuesday. Today's front lifts back north through the region mid- week ahead of the next front to cross late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing yet another potential round of showers, storms, and SCA conditions to our waters. High pressure sets up offshore after the midweek front allowing for calming seas and relaxing winds with a dry and warming forecast lasting into the weekend.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 4 am EDT early this morning for amz135. Small craft advisory until 7 am EDT this morning for amz150. Small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz152- 154. Small craft advisory until 6 pm EDT this evening for amz156- 158.
