Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week with sunny skies. Building hts as upper ridge strengthens sends temps soaring through the 80s and nearing 90 for some interior locales (record high climate section below). A back door front moves into nrn parts of ENC later Thur, but quickly retreats north by early Friday with another surge of swrly flow ahead of much stronger front. No moisture with the backdoor front, and only temporary reductions in temps for nrn 1/3 of ENC.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The aforementioned much stronger cold front will sweep through ENC Friday night, and good model agreement with this system. Front still appears moisture stared due to it's very fast movement and no connection to the Gulf. Strong forcing is associated with it however, so a skinny line of showers may drop only a few hundredths at best for most areas in the span of less than an hour Fri evening. Coolest and driest airmass for the fall season thus far builds in behind this front with temps taking a nosedive with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s (inland) and 50s (beaches).
With this strong front, winds rapidly inc from the NW Fri evening with a short period of gales for most of the waters and sounds, and would bring a sharp increase in high seas especially on Sat as the winds turn northerly and persist to near gales on the coastal waters. Minor coastal impacts could occur too, though short duration of strongest winds may act to limit more appreciable impacts. It's still too soon for specifics on coastal flooding potential.
00z Wednesday through Sunday VFR flight cats with SKC currently. Only flight restrictions would come from fog development overnight, with the winds being the controlling factor, but it is not a slam dunk case either way for decoupled vs mixing. Background winds will generally be light out of the SW all night with weak high pressure located just off the Crystal Coast and relatively stronger SFC centered further W near the Apps. Biggest question will be if the low levels will decouple for long enough of a duration to allow the stagnant air to saturate. Not a single piece of guidance shows winds decoupled for more than an hr or two. However, OAJ, ISO, OCW, and DPL are currently showing calm winds. Have included 6sm MIFG prevailing for TAF sites that have the highest Tds currently and have included TEMPO MVFR lines for TAF sites that has the greatest chance of seeing winds AoB 2kt through the entire overnight. Vfr all day with light SWerly winds and SKC Wed.
Outlook (Thu through Sun): Pred VFR conditions cont with high pres nearby. Strong cold front brings brief showers Fri evening, along with gusty swrly winds ahead of it in the afternoon with gusts upwards of around 20 kt, then stronger nwrly gusts to nearly 30 kt briefly behind it Friday night. Winds diminish Sat and esp Sun with high pres building in.
Latest obs show light/variable winds around ~5 kt most locales with seas mainly 1-3 ft. High pressure will continue nearby tonight though ease offshore allowing for predom swrly flow but no higher than 5-10 kt. Swrly breezes cont for Wed with speeds of 5-15 kt and seas cont 1-3 ft.
Outlook (Thu through Sun): High pres cont with good boating conditions into Fri. A backdoor front will push through the waters Thursday briefly bringing nerly winds to nrn waters and sounds, then retreats Thur night with swrly winds ensuing. A strong cold front pushes through Friday evening, with swrly winds ahead of it inc to 10-20 kt Fri afternoon, then switching rapidly to NW behind the front and gusting 25-35 kt. Will likely see burst of gale force winds for the waters and sounds, then easing to near gales, esp for the coastal waters, late Fri night into Sat. Seas respond to the high winds by building 6+ ft.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
