Key MESSAGE 1, Weak low pressure off the coast of NC will gradually shift away from the area today, but with a not-as-hot northeasterly flow lingering for one more day. We should see more sunshine by this afternoon which will help boost highs into the mid to upper 80s, which is near or slightly below normal for mid-July.
After today, southerly flow returns for the rest of the week. This will support warming temperatures, rising humidity, and an increasing heat risk. The heat risk is expected to peak Thursday- Sunday, although the return of a more convectively active pattern may hold the heat risk down some, especially from Sunday into early next week.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning guidance continue to show a strong signal for a more convectively active pattern returning by the weekend, and potentially continuing into next week. Additionally, machine learning and analog guidance suggest a pattern that is also favorable for strong to severe convection. This is supported by deterministic guidance, especially Saturday-Monday. Pwats are forecast to rise back above 2" as well, suggesting a pattern favorable for heavy rain and potentially some hydro concerns.
06z Tuesday through Saturday Recent guidance have trended less pessimistic regarding the potential for sub-VFR CIGs overnight. The potential still appears to exist, but the 06z TAFs have been adjusted to reflect a lowered risk of IFR conditions. It's entirely possible that some sites may not even get down to MVFR. We'll continue to closely monitor trends through the night in case IFR/MVFR becomes more likely. Otherwise, SHRA and TSRA activity should mostly stay offshore through the night, but may develop inland towards KEWN/KOAJ for a short time before drier air moves in from the north by the afternoon. Of note, if sufficient clearing occurs Tuesday night, the setup appears favorable for BR/FG development, potentially with a risk of IFR/LIFR conditions.
Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): A drier and more muted TSRA pattern is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Eventually, a more active TSRA pattern should develop by the end of the week and into the weekend.
Low pressure south of ENC will gradually weaken and shift away from the area today. Until then, a modest east to northeast wind of 10- 15kt will continue today. Winds lay down tonight to around 5-10kt. Seas of 3-6ft this morning will gradually lay down to 2-4ft by tonight.
Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Southerly flow continues on into the upcoming weekend, steadily building each day. Winds are expected to peak over the weekend along with elevated seas. The next opportunity for marine headlines is expected with the building winds and seas this weekend. A more active thunderstorm pattern is expected over the weekend as well.
Nc, beach hazards statement from 6 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz196-203>205. Marine, none.
