Key MESSAGE 1, Vertically stacked low pressure approx 360 mi east of the NC/VA border will continue to slowly drift northward today, then will quickly accelerate northeastward Thursday as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Winds will continue to gradually east today as the low drifts farther away from the area but still could see gusts around 30-40 mph along the Outer Banks today.
The strong winds offshore continue to bring large surf along the coast as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe, and ferry service remains suspended in certain locations. Additionally, webcams last evening show at least one section of the Pea Island dune structure has been washed away. Each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the dunes further, and the threat of additional impacts to Hwy 12 remain. Tides are expected
Minor soundside flooding is also a concern along southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco and Ocracoke. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Outer Banks.
Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for Cape Hatteras and points north through the OBX where surf height up to 8-12 ft will continue. Have cancelled the High Surf Advisory south of Hatteras as seas have subsided below 8 ft.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Pleasantly cooler air mass will remain with us through the next several days with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.
06z Wednesday through Sunday VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with mainly clear skies. Northerly winds will continue with gusts around 15-20 kt at the TAF sites through daytime mixing. Coastal sections will see gusts up to around 30 kt, especially along the Outer Banks.
Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): VFR and breezy conditions are expected to continue through the next several days as the offshore low remains well offshore and high pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.
Dangerous marine conditions will continue through the week as low pressure deepens well off the Mid-Atlantic coast continuing to supply a steady fetch of strong north-northeasterly winds into ENC with large east-northeasterly swells.
Latest obs show N-NNE winds 10-20 kt across the rivers and 20-25 kt gusting 25-35 kt across the coastal waters, with seas 5-7 ft south of Lookout and 10-15+ ft north. Expect similar conditions to persist through the day today as the low very slowly drifts northward and deepens, but will see winds begin to decrease tonight as the low drifts farther away from the area. Seas will only subside by a couple of feet tonight with large swells persisting. Have dropped the Gale Warning for the Pamlico Sound but gusts to Gale will continue to be possible across the northern and central coastal waters into this evening.
Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Winds will diminish sufficiently Thursday that the sounds and rivers are expected to briefly drop below SCA criteria, however very large seas as high as 10-15 ft will continue over the coastal waters. Winds and seas increasing again Friday into the weekend as strong high pressure builds in from the north.
Nc, beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz196-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT Thursday for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz204- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz131- 230. Small craft advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for amz135. Gale warning until 6 pm EDT this evening for amz150-152-154- 186. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Sunday for amz156-158. Gale warning until midnight EDT tonight for amz180-182-184. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for amz231.
