Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

324 pm EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Synopsis

High pressure will continue over the region into early next week. A cold front will cross the middle of next week.

Near Term

Until 6 am Saturday morning As of 315 PM Friday, A quiet and fall like evening is on tap with an increasing clear sky and cool weather. One band of lower clouds over the Pamlico Sound and Outer Banks will be fairly persistent this evening. Substantial clearing here may not be until after midnight, especially near Hatteras. Farther west some stratocu that has formed with our cooler air aloft will quickly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Temps inland will be as low as near 50 in the normal cool spots, to 60s along the OBX due to cloud cover and some wind.

Short Term

6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night AS of 315 PM Friday, High pressure will be in full control of our weather to start the weekend. With full sunshine and dry air in place, we will warm quickly Saturday with highs well into the 70s by afternoon. With dewpoints in the 50s, it will still feel quite comfortable. Another clear sky and calm night Saturday night will allow temps to fall back into the 50s again inland.

Long Term

Sunday through Friday As of 215 AM Fri, Strong ridge of high pressure continues to build into the region through the weekend and lingers into the middle of next week to bring a stretch of relatively cool and quiet weather.

Sunday, High temps will be near climo, gradually warming from to around 80 by Sun.

Monday and Tuesday, High pressure will move overhead early next week before sliding SE by midweek. Generally dry conditions will persist as a result, but temps will gradually warm above climo each day as heights inc, allowing aftn highs to return to the mid to upper 80s.

Wednesday and beyond, Global models pointing at a mid level trough developing across the East Coast mid week, possibly bringing a backdoor front through the region late Wed and into Thu. A few showers possible with this boundary, but the main impact is much cooler air moving in Thu, with aftn highs dropping from the mid 80s Wed to upper 70s to around 80 Thursday.

Aviation

19z Friday through Wednesday Through Saturday As of 140 PM Fri, VFR through most of the terminals through the end of the TAF period. Lingering MVFR cigs at KHSE will move off the coast by late this afternoon.

Elsewhere mainly SKC through the period with northeast to north winds this afternoon becoming backing toward the northwest Saturday. Generally less than 10 kts but a few gusts are possible this afternoon.

Saturday night through Tuesday As of 215 AM Fri, Dry high pressure builds into the region this weekend through the end of the TAF period, providing an extended period of VFR conditions.

Marine

Through Saturday night As of 315 PM Friday, Marginal small craft conditions continue on the waters north of Lookout, and over the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, with improving marine conditions heading into the weekend.

North to northeast winds that were quite brisk earlier today have already showed signs of decreasing. We may still see a few gusts to around 25 kts across the sounds this evening, thus the SCA continues here until 8 PM. It will be quite marginal however, with conditions improving by the hour.

Over the coastal waters winds will also subside this evening but elevated seas will be the issue for a good chunk of the night especially offshore from Hatteras. Sca continues here until near daybreak when seas finally come down under 6 feet.

Saturday will continue the improving trend on the waters with north winds 10 to 15 kts by afternoon and as a result, seas diminishing to 3 to 4 feet.

Sunday through Tuesday As of 215 AM Fri, N winds turn more Wrly Sun. High pressure shifts more over the Southeastern US Mon and Tue, turning winds from the SW at 10-15 kts. Seas remain fair around 2-4 ft through the forecast period.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz131- 135-156-230-231. Small craft advisory until 7 am EDT Saturday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until midnight EDT tonight for amz150.

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