Key MESSAGE 1, The latest surface analysis shows a stalled surface front south of the Crystal Coast this evening. Meanwhile, a secondary front (possibly an elevated 850mb front), is progressing SW across ENC. Boundary remains to our south for much of Sunday, but temperatures have trended slightly lower tomorrow with likely lingering convective debris and potentially earlier start of convection. No Heat Advisories issued for tomorrow, although spots from Lenoir County southward may get close to 105 for an hour or two. Higher confidence in dangerous heat remains on Monday as the front lifts north and re- entrenches ENC in a very hot airmass with 1000-850 mb thicknesses once again climbing above 1430m and widespread Tds in the mid to upper 70s. This could nudge max heat index values above 110 in many areas. We continue to encourage anyone planning on spending time outdoors to stay hydrated and to limit exposure to the heat, if able.
Another frontal boundary quickly pushes across NC on Monday evening before stalling along the coast. Like this weekend, SW counties will likely remain hot and humid while Albemarle and vicinity see some modest relief. A more widespread cooldown, however, is on the horizon late next week as a stronger cold front dives out of Canada and across the eastern CONUS.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The latest surface analysis shows a stalled surface front south of the Crystal Coast this evening. Meanwhile, a secondary front (possibly an elevated 850mb front), is progressing SW across ENC. It's this boundary where some lingering convection is ongoing, mainly from Carteret County offshore. Until the boundary clears the area, there will continue to be a risk of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly along, and just inland of, the Crystal Coast. However, the risk of strong thunderstorms is expected to remain low the remainder of the night.
Frontal boundary begins to lift northward on Sunday, shifting more robust convection threat closer to VA but still leaving a favorable environment for sea breeze activity, as well as some upstream threats once again making their way towards the area in the evening. Evolution will be heavily driven by mesoscale factors owing to continued higher than average forecast uncertainty owing to large spread in CAMs.
Another frontal boundary looks to approach on Monday. There will still be plenty of details to hammer out but both AI and trusted deterministic NWP guidance point to at least another marginal risk of strong to severe storms associated with this boundary. It will stall along our coast next week, keeping our area in an unsettled pattern through most of the work week.
01z Sunday through Thursday TSRA from earlier are quickly diminishing, with the focus shifting offshore. That said, there is a weak boundary moving SW through the area, and until it clears through, a low risk of a few SHRA and possibly a TSRA will remain. In the wake of the SHRA and TSRA activity, guidance suggest some low CIG potential. The strongest signal appears to be focused over central NC, but there is enough of a risk that we have continued to carry a SCT low cloud layer in the TAFs to reflect the potential. Amendments may be needed if this risk increases. Additionally, there may also be a risk of reduced VIS in MIFG/BR.
On Sunday, a stalled front offshore will lift back north as a warm front. Guidance differ on how quickly it moves back north, and this will be important as the location of the boundary should be where the greatest TSRA risk is focused. Given uncertainties in the location of the front, TSRA were left out of the TAFs for now. Where TSRA occur, sub-VFR conditions can be expected. Additionally, there will be a risk of LIFR VIS, small hail, and gusty/erratic winds of 20-40kt+.
Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): More isolated TSRA activity is possible Sun evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected into Monday. Then as we get into Mon evening and Tue more widespread threat for sub- VFR conditions is possible on ahead of the next front before VFR conditions return Tue into Wed.
Cold front has largely cleared area waters this evening and winds are primarily out of the northeast at 5-15 kt. Seas are around 2-3 feet with a 5 sec wind wave, although some underlying 12-13 second swell lingers. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger for at least a few more hours across Onslow Bay waters this evening, with lower probabilities farther north.
Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): Marine forecast, in terms of winds and seas, is largely benign with the next focus for SCA on Monday as another cold front approaches area waters. This, coupled with a healthy thermal gradient, will likely boost southwesterly winds back to 15-20 kt with some spotty gusts to 25 kt. At this time, coverage of SCA conditions appears too limited to need a headline but forecast trends will be monitored. Beyond this, next potential for SCA is late next week. Each day will bring a low to moderate risk (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms to area waters.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
