Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

319 am EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

Synopsis

High pressure will build over the area mid to late week. Another cold front will approach the area this weekend.

Near Term

Through today As of 245 AM Wednesday, Surface high pressure will continue to build in from the northwest today, however, an unusually (for this time of year) amplified upper trough with 500 MB heights -2SD and 500 MB temps -3SD will be located aloft. A shortwave observed in the WV imagery over the central Appalachians is forecast to move through this trough and across NC this afternoon through evening and should help to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. This will be negated by downslope flow and deep mixing which will cause dewpoints to drop into the 50s inland, limiting convective coverage. Thus best chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be east of Highway 17 in region of higher surface dewpoints and in vicinity of local sea breeze boundaries. Could see some locally heavy downpours as PW values remain AOA 1.25". Highs will range from the mid 80s inland to low 80s beaches.

Short Term

Tonight As of 245 AM Wednesday, Ongoing isolated to widely scattered convection should wane in the early evening with the loss of heating and the passage of the shortwave. Radiational cooling will result in patchy fog developing late. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and upper 60s beaches.

Long Term

Thursday through Tuesday As of 250 AM Wednesday, Lower chances for showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Thursday, followed by a period of drier weather into the first part of the weekend. Saturday will be quite hot with highs well into the 90s. Our next shot of rain will come later in the weekend and especially early next week.

Thursday, Sfc high pressure will continue building into the region, but will still maintain a schc for a sct shower or tstm in the aftn. A coastal low will be pushed out to sea Thu, but a weak coastal trough could help fire some convection along the seabreeze. Kept POPs to a schc with low coverage expected. Highs in the middle to upper 80s.

Friday and Saturday, High pressure will build across our area Friday, and off the coast by Saturday, supporting a dry forecast. Temps will inch toward 90 Friday, and as the high slides off the coast Saturday, a strong southwest flow will support highs well into the 90s most of the area. With the southwest flow, 90s are even likely across the northern Outer Banks.

Sunday through Monday, An area of disturbed weather in the Gulf later this week, will gradually lift northeastward in the steering flow around a bermuda high off the coast. A general increase in shower chances later Sunday, but especially early next week, along with slightly lower temperatures can be expected.

Aviation

06z Wednesday through Sunday Through tonight As of 245 AM Wednesday, Patches of locally dense fog will produce MVFR to IFR conditions at KOAJ and KEWN early this morning, otherwise VFR conditions prevail with light winds. Isolated afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur east of the TAF sites today. Late tonight radiational cooling again should result in the development of patchy fog.

Thursday through Sunday As of 300 AM Wednesday, Mainly VFR conditions this period. Scattered storms possible again Thursday. Patchy fog will also be possible during the late night/early morning hours during this period, especially at terminals that see rainfall. Drier weather Friday and Saturday before more unsettled weather possibly Sunday.

Marine

Through tonight As of 245 AM Wednesday, Light winds and slight seas are expected through tonight as high pressure influences the marine weather. Winds will become NW 5-10 kt this morning, then S/SE this afternoon, and variable 10 kt or less overnight. Seas 2-4 ft today, subside to 2-3 ft tonight.

Thursday through Sunday As of 300 AM Wednesday, Good boating conditions on the waters continues through Friday with winds generally less than 10 kts and seas 4 feet or less. Conditions on the waters go down by Saturday as strong southwest winds develop over the waters.

A cold front will remain just south of our southern waters before pushing away Thu aftn. Winds expected to be light and variable Thursday before becoming more prominent from the south Friday. Winds start to pick up Friday night around 10-15 kts before becoming 15-20 kts by Saturday. With gusts up to 25 kts possible Sat and seas building to 4-6 ft, a period of SCA will likely be needed for the coastal waters. Some unsettled weather will begin to approach the area Sunday, with SW winds 15-20 kts. All data supports elevated seas and strong southwest winds into early next week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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