Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week with sunny skies. Building hts as upper ridge strengthens sends temps soaring through the 80s and nearing 90 for some interior locales (record high climate section below). A back door front moves into nrn parts of ENC later Thur with some increasing cloud cover and slightly cooler temps behind it, but quickly retreats north by early Friday with another surge of swrly flow ahead of much stronger front. No moisture with the backdoor front, and only temporary reductions in temps for nrn 1/3 of ENC.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A trend towards a slower frontal arrival and progression, with low pres development along the frontal zone on Saturday. Followed closely to the ECM, which has been setting this trend over the last several runs, with the 14/12Z continuing this wet trend with high pops, but rather low QPF which is typical with ana fronts, where stratiform rain follows the sfc front. Gfs is now an outlier, with most of the global model suite on board with the wetter trend, so it has been discounted. Cold front finally passes through the coast around 12Z Sat morning, thus Fri night still quite mild in swrly flow. Non-diurnal temp trend Sat with temps cooling through the day with rain, clouds, and strengthening nrly winds.
Regarding the winds, model trends have also trended upwards with winds, with gales in frequent gusts now likely for most marine zones including the sounds, and favorably aligned Alligator River, as ECM probs for these gales now over 80%. Winds adv criteria fcst for the OBX zones, as well as perhaps portions of the adjacent coastal mainland. Will have to watch for minor coastal flood concerns for srn portions of Pamlico Sound and the coastal areas of the OBX.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Coolest and driest airmass for the fall season thus far builds in behind the front Sat night and beyond with temps taking a nosedive with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s (inland) and 50s (beaches). However, depending how offshore the front makes it, could keep things a bit milder than fcst if some clouds advect in from offshore keeping the nighttime mins a bit warmer than advertised.
00z Thursday through Monday VFR SKC continues with light swrly breezes. No guidance shows ANY fog development with all model suites showing winds remaining AoA 2-3kt through the overnight. Naturally, ISO, OCW, and DPL are showing that the winds have decoupled. Should the winds remain decoupled, fog development will be possible which could lead to flight restrictions due to VIS. Given how poorly models have done with the potential for winds to decouple overnight, have added a tempo MVFR VIS group for OAJ. That site has the best chance for winds to decouple long enough, plus there was a fire NW of the terminal in Duplin county as well as one NE of the terminal. Smoke plume was never dense enough to show on radar, and visible satellite showed the plume was thinning just before sunset. Did not include FU in the TAFs because of this, but lingering smoke could aid fog development/further dampen VIS should winds decouple. A dry backdoor front sags into the FA THU from N to S through the day tomorrow before briefly stalling somewhere between the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers overnight. No precip is expected, mostly just a wind shift and maybe some increased cloud coverage along and near the front. Flight cats still expected to remain VFR despite the front through daylight hours THU.
Outlook (Fri through Mon): Pred VFR conditions cont Friday with swrly breezes inc ahead of cold front. Strong and slow moving cold front brings widespread light rain on Sat, with sub VFR likely behind the front later Sat with frontal inversion developing, along with gusty north winds through the day Sat. Clearing skies Sat night with winds tapering off as high pres attempts to build in for the latter half of the weekend into next week.
Latest obs show SW winds 5-10 knots most locales with seas mainly 1-3 ft. High pressure will continue to the north allowing for predom swrly flow but no higher than 5-15 kt tonight with some gusts nearing 15 kt. Backdoor front oozes through the nrn waters and sound on Thu, though does not make it past Pamlico sound. To the north of the bndry, nerly breezes expected though remaining light, and to the south, generally swrly to srly continued light flow.
Outlook (Fri through Mon): A strong cold front has trended slower, now not expected to clear the waters until Sat. Strong nrly winds develop in it's wake on Sat, peaking later afternoon through Sat evening with gales appearing likely for all coastal waters and most of the sounds including Alligator river. Seas build quickly as well, with seas of 6-11 ft appearing more likely through the weekend, only easing slightly into early next week with SCA conditions appearing likely Sunday into early next week with stout nerly breezes and cont large swell.
Trend from the AIFS (Euro AI) indicates low pres development off the Southeast US coast early next week, which may bring winds to near gales and continue very large seas over 10 ft, and will cont to monitor this potential over the coming days.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
