Key MESSAGE 1, Latest analysis shows strengthening low pressure currently about 300 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras with showers wrapping around this low, mainly across the offshore waters. Overall very little change in forecast thinking as a mid level shortwave is forecast to round the base of an upper level trough currently located along the Eastern Seaboard tonight. This mid level shortwave will act to rapidly deepen the aforementioned surface low as it slowly shifts north in the coming days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty N/NE winds and dangerous coastal and marine conditions to ENC.
Some uncertainty still exists with the eventual strength and exact track of the low as it shifts off towards the New England coast as we approach this weekend. If the slower and stronger guidance were to verify, stronger winds may linger along the coast a bit longer prolonging some coastal impacts. Regarding sensible weather, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast are expected to persist through through tonight, with areas of light rain/drizzle inland. Flooding risk remains very low.
By far, the greatest impacts with this Nor'easter remain across the Outer Banks. Here, continued moderate to strong northeast to north winds remain in place, and potentially last into Saturday morning, especially if the ECMWF/ICON solutions are correct. Wind Advisories continue for Dare County, Ocracoke, and Downeast Carteret County. For the OBX from Cape Hatteras north, peak gusts could top out around 50 mph, and this may lead to some minor tree and power line damage, along with a risk of isolated power outages. Roads along the Outer Banks may be dangerous to traverse for high profile vehicles, especially along bridges. Nc-12 from the Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe remains closed due to ocean overwash.
The strong, and long duration, of the winds is also expected to support an increased risk of coastal impacts. Seas are already dangerous, reaching heights of about 13-18 ft at 13-14 seconds north of Cape Hatteras and 8-12 ft south. Seas likely peak around 15-20 ft into tonight creating dangerous surf conditions in addition to a risk of beach erosion, wave runup, ocean overwash, and minor to moderate coastal flooding. Of note, the highest wave energy appears to be aligned with the evening high tide today (which happens to be the highest of the two high tides today). This will likely result in impacts to vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks north of Ocracoke Inlet where dune structures are compromised or non-existent. At this point the 6-8ft+ wave heights in the surf zone may last into this weekend. A High Surf Advisory Remains in effect through Saturday evening.
For soundside areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, and the nearby Neuse River, persistent north to northeasterly winds may lead to minor coastal flooding through Friday. Already, some gauges in the southern Pamlico Sound are approaching or have reached minor flood levels. Have had a few reports of water levels around 1 ft above normal. Eventually the winds are expected to turn more northerly, which may then allow the soundside coastal flooding risk to shift to portions of Ocracoke and Hatteras Villages.
Please continue to stay tuned for future updates as this is a complex and longer-duration Nor'easter, with subtle changes in strength and path of the low leading to increased, or decreased, coastal impacts.
key message 2, As the low shifts to New England and eventually weakens, sfc high and ridging aloft builds into ENC early next week. This will bring lighter winds, sunshine, and warmer weather back to the region. Of note, despite the warming weather, light northerly to variable winds early next week are forecast to keep dewpoints in the 50s, making for more comfortable conditions despite highs warming up into the mid to upper 80s.
18z Thursday through Tuesday Widespread MVFR conditions across the terminals this afternoon with areas of drizzle and gusty winds. Mvfr will likely persist through much of tonight with cigs gradually improving from west to east late tonight and early Fri morning. Drier air eventually begins to work in tonight, lowering the coverage of RA/DZ into tonight with much of the area outside of the OBX remaining dry tonight. Gusty NNE winds will continue through the period, slowly diminishing late tonight and Friday. At times, crosswind impacts can be expected at KEWN through late tonight.
Outlook: The coastal low will continue to support periods of gusty winds, low CIGs, and SHRA through the end of the week mainly along the OBX. Cigs are forecast to eventually rise to VFR levels everywhere across ENC by the weekend as drier air begins to wraparound the western periphery of the low keeping skies partly cloudy. As this low moves away Fri into Saturday winds are also forecast to ease across ENC as well.
Dangerous conditions ongoing across the waters this afternoon with widespread gale force winds both sustained and gusts with strengthening low pressure well offshore. Latest obs show NE winds 20-25 kt across the inland rivers and 25-35 kt gusting 35-40 kt across the sounds and coastal waters, with seas 10-20 ft north of Ocracoke and 8-15 ft south. These dangerous boating conditions look to continue into at least Friday as the aforementioned low continues to rapidly deepen tonight and slowly shift N'wards towards the Northeastern CONUS. As a result, gale force NErly winds are expected to persist into Friday across most of our coastal and inland waters with 20-30 kt winds and 35-45 kt gusts forecast for just about all of the waters outside of the Pamlico/Pungo/Neuse/Bay Rivers where SCA conditions will be noted. Seas of 10-20ft will be possible, especially for the waters from Cape Lookout north through Duck. Swell periods will remain around 10-13 seconds into this weekend as well. Of note, there remains some uncertainty on the end time of the gale products and may need to eventually be extended.
Outlook: Based on the latest guidance, hazardous marine conditions may last well into the weekend, especially for the coastal waters as seas remain elevated. However, winds should gradually lay down over the weekend as the low pulls away and a high builds in with more benign boating conditions forecast by early next week.
Nc, wind advisory until 2 am EDT Friday for ncz047-196-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 11 am EDT Friday for ncz094-194- 196. Beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm EDT Friday for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT Saturday for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until 11 pm EDT Friday for ncz204-205. Marine, gale warning until 8 pm EDT Friday for amz131-135-154-184-230- 231. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Friday for amz136-137. Gale warning until 2 am EDT Saturday for amz150-152-180-182. Gale warning until 8 am EDT Friday for amz156-158-188. Gale warning until 2 pm EDT Friday for amz186.
