Key MESSAGE 1, Light and variable flow across ENC this afternoon as the stalled front has for the most part dissipated. Convection beginning to wane with loss of heating. Pw values remain high, around 2.2" per 12z KMHX sounding, and given slow storm motions, isolated areas may pick up an inch or more of rainfall, but most areas will see much less with a majority of the FA receiving no rain.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Ridging builds aloft early this week and peaks over the area Wednesday and Thursday with H85 temps around 21-22C leading to temps well in the 90s most areas away from the immediate coast. Heat headlines may be needed Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly lingering into Friday with forecast heat indices climbing above 105 each day, especially inland areas and along the coast south of US70. Some locations may approach record high temperature values mid week and have included the current record values in the CLIMATE section below.
Subsidence aloft will limit thunderstorm activity for much of the weak with only isolated afternoon convection along the sea breeze at best, but most areas are expected to remain dry through Thursday. The ridge begins to retreat westward late in the week which NW flow developing aloft bringing the potential for MCV's diving from the Mid-West across the area, possibly as early as Thursday night but more likely late Friday into the weekend.
00z Monday through Friday # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #
Mostly VFR conditions across ENC early this evening with convection gradually waning. Iso showers could impact terminals through sunset, then dissipating quickly. Airmass changes little tonight with fewer high clouds leading to decent radiational cooling conditions and could see fog and low stratus develop once again. Guidance is mixed on the extent of fog but HREF probs for sub- VFR conditions are highest across western terminals at around 40-60%. All terminals could see period of IFR/LIFR conditions. Pred VFR conditions expected Monday after any fog burns off with only isolated chance of a storm along the sea breeze.
Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west next week resulting in more benign flying conditions. Iso shower or storm cannot be ruled out along area sea and sound breezes.
The front across the waters has dissipated and seeing light easterly flow across the waters this afternoon with seas around 2 ft. Expect benign boating conditions to start the work week with variable winds less than 10 kt and seas around 2 ft.
Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west early this week allowing for benign marine conditions to continue and lower chances for precip. Although SCA conditions are not expected, with building heat inland thermal gradient winds out of the SW will return starting mid-week each afternoon and evening at 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt possible.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
