Record highs will be threatened for some on Friday and Saturday as very warm high pressure dominates. A cold front will move through Sunday and bring showers to the area Sat night into Sun morning. A return to colder and drier early next week.
Overnight As of 945 PM Thurs, No significant changes to the forecast on this update as everything is tracking relativly well. Still think there remains an elevated chance for patch fog especially south of Hwy 70, so have left fog in the forecast for ENC generally away from the OBX and our NE'rn zones starting after midnight.
Prev Disc, Lows will be well above normal tonight with mild temps in the low to mid 40s across the coastal plain and low 50s at the beaches. With near saturated surface conditions and light winds overnight, fog and low stratus will be possible. Areas south of Highway 70 have the greatest chance at seeing fog late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but our coverage of mid and high clouds overnight will play a large role in whether or not fog is able to develop.
Friday As of 3 PM Thu, The dry cold front that moved through last night/early this morning will lift back north as a warm front tomorrow. This will bring increasing heights/thicknesses as winds return to the SW, which will send high temps into the mid 70s across interior zones and 60s along the coast. Some record highs may be possible for some (see record section below). With this front lifting north and a weak prefrontal trough developing along the coast, some light showers or sprinkles will be possible along the OBX, but PoPs remain below slight chance (<15%).
Friday night through Thursday As of 2:50 PM Thursday,
Saturday, The aforementioned prefrontal trough will continue to threaten the area with some light showers during the first half of Saturday with the immediate coast and inland zones having the best chances (30-50%). Cloud cover will dissipate some by the afternoon as stronger deep layer SW flow and brief riding takes over ahead of a strong cold front. Record highs will be possible once again with highs in the mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s at the beaches.
Sunday, Aforementioned cold front sweeps through on Sunday. Shower chances maximize during the morning, and although QPF not expected to be overly impressive, strong forcing and lift in place and have raised pops as a result into the low end likely range (50-75%). Caa during the afternoon with falling temps late in the day behind fropa.
Early next week, Cool but seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather is forecast for early next week as deep trough swings through with lowered hts/thicknesses. Highs in the 40s for Mon then 50s on Tue as moderating airmass ensues. Lows will be in the 20s to near 30.
02z Friday through Tuesday As of 715 PM Thursday,
Key Messages
- Patchy fog and stratus bringing sub-VFR conditions becoming increasingly likely tonight, most probable south of Highway 70.
High pressure near the Delmarva Peninsula will continue to slide offshore tonight as a warm front lifts north across the region Fri morning. As of right now VFR conditions persist across ENC under a mix of sct to bkn high cirrus and should continue over the next several hours. However, after midnight as skies clear a bit more, low level moisture remains in place, and winds remain light, fog and low level stratus become a concern. Latest Hi-Res guidance has trended slightly more aggressive with the fog threat with both RRFS and HREF showing a 40-60% chance at sub VFR fog and low stratus along and south of Hwy 70 with a 30-50% chance north of Hwy 70%. While the increase is minimal in nature as far as threat, then trend is noticeable, and with HRRR and NAM also showing a threat for a mix of fog/low stratus have elected to add fog and a SCT deck of IFR stratus into all TAF sites starting between 07Z-09Z and persisting into about 15Z Fri before VFR conditions return to ENC for the rest of the day Fri under steady S'rly flow.
Outlook: Fog and stratus bringing sub-VFR conditions possible once again Friday night into Saturday morning with HREF probs around 70% area-wide. Sub-VFR conditions possible again Saturday night into Sunday morning with showers associated with an approaching cold front. High pressure builds back into the area early next week bringing a much drier airmass and expect pred VFR conditions with limited fog potential.
As of 3 PM Thursday,
Key Messages,
- Sub-SCA conditions through Saturday morning - 25-30 kt winds develop Saturday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front (near Gale force gusts along the Gulf Stream Saturday night/Sunday morning)
- Cold front swings through on Sunday with gusty nwrly winds keeping SCA conditions through Sunday night.
- Seas peak Saturday night at 5-8 ft, dropping below 6 ft by Monday morning
Through tomorrow, 10-20 kt NE winds will veer to the SE overnight and to the SW by tomorrow evening as a warm front lifts north across the area. Seas will be 2-3 ft across all coastal zones.
Saturday through Sunday, Two rounds of strong winds are expected as a cold front impacts the area this weekend. The first round will occur Saturday afternoon - early Sunday morning, peaking Saturday night. Sw winds increase to 20-30 kt with gusts to near gale force along the Gulf Stream waters. Seas will build to 5-8 ft during this time. Early Sunday, there will be a slight reprieve in winds and seas as winds continue to veer towards the west, but hazardous boating conditions will continue. The second round of strong winds will start Sunday night as NW winds surge behind a potent cold front. Winds will once again be 20-30 kt with gusts to near gale force across the Gulf Stream waters (peaking Sunday night) and seas building back up to 4-6 ft during this time.
Boating conditions will improve to sub-SCA by Monday morning as high pressure builds back in.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
