Key MESSAGE 1, A couple of slow moving to stationary boundaries have been evident on satellite since this morning, and along these boundaries scattered showers are ongoing. Dry air at low levels (700-800mb) and at mid levels (~500mb) as denoted on the 12Z MHX sounding should help keep showers shallow and brief in nature, and as a result thunder chances remain low through today. With a loss of daytime heating once the Sun sets, coverage of shower should come down drastically.
We are pretty warm with temps in the low 80s inland, mid 70s along the coast. Highs shouldn't get much higher than this, especially with cloud cover increasing inland.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Friday - Still looks like widespread showers and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Ahead of the front, we could see more isolated to scattered showers moving SW to NE inland in the morning hours, still uncertain how much of an impact these have to instability later on in the day. Circling back to Friday afternoon, anomalous moisture and higher-than-normal instability (assuming morning showers have little to no impacT) for early November is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices inland, and where highest instability and shear will reside. Confidence is increasing on the best forcing lining up with peak heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas especially along and west of the Jacksonville/New Bern/Washington, NC corridor in the afternoon and early evening Main threat would be damaging wind gusts. With some weak helicity present a brief, weak tornado can't be ruled out. The front sweeps offshore late Friday with any remaining showers exiting the OBX around or shortly after midnight Friday night.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Good agreement amongst models with frontal passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of the normally colder spots. We will have to monitor the temp forecast for any frost concerns Sunday morning.
00z Friday through Tuesday Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers will continue for the next hour or so but gradually wane with loss of heating, leaving eastern NC under mainly a mix of mid and high level clouds. Tonight, guidance continues to remain unconvinced on low stratus (apart from the LAMP, which shows probabilities of MVFR cigs or worse tomorrow morning at 15-20%). Given little change in the pattern the past two nights, offered at least a SCT mention of lower cigs at IFR levels. More spotty -SHRA may begin encroaching on the area from the west in the morning hours as well, as a cold front slowly edges east through central NC. Once we get towards the afternoon, the front is at our doorstep and TSRA risk with some gusty winds increases. A few stronger storms are possible and these could produce gusts of 40+ kt at times.
Behind the front, low stratus will encroach under the resulting frontal inversion and an extended period of at least MVFR appears increasingly likely late Friday into Saturday.
Outlook: A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should support mainly VFR conditions from Saturday into much of next week as a cooler and more seasonable airmass anchors over the region.
Light to moderate southerly winds will continue through the period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters). Seas will persist at 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore through Friday. Scattered light showers will be possible through today. Friday, cold front moves through in the evening into overnight hours for our waters. Ahead of the front, strong thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and a brief waterspout are possible. Behind the front, winds switch to the north/northwest, gusting to near 20 knots.
Outlook (Friday night through Monday): Cold front pushes offshore, with north/northwest winds gusting to 20-25 knots behind it. Tstorm threat pushes offshore with the front. High builds in this weekend into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies rain-free. Waves also go down as a result.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
