High pressure builds in this afternoon through Christmas Day. A warm front moves through Friday evening with next chance for rain. An arctic cold front moves through late Sunday with a return to cold by early next week.
Until 6 am Thursday morning As of 1915 Christmas Eve,
Key Messages,
- Mild evening with increasing clouds late
Quiet weather expected for the rest of tonight as ENC finds itself sitting on the NEern periphery of a broad sub- tropical ridge centered over the Gulf. Dry conditions expected tonight as high pressure crests over the region. Should see some good cooling tonight, although more robust radiational cooling will likely be hampered by increasing clouds ahead of approaching shortwave embedded in northwesterly flow aloft. Lows expected to bottom out in the low 40s with typical cold/sheltered spots dipping into the upper 30s.
6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday As of 130 PM Wed,
Key Messages,
- Increasing chances (20-40%) for a period of light rain late Christmas Morning (best chances across northern NC)
Clouds increase quickly after sunrise tomorrow as a weak disturbance moves across the NC/VA border and offshore. Forecast trends continue to favor a period of light rain (generally amounting to less than a couple tenths) across northern NC, with an isolated shower possible south of US 264. Temperatures will be slow to rise in the morning due to the clouds, but will jump up into the 60s to low 70s as skies clear in the afternoon and southwesterly flow ramps up ahead of another quick-hitting front.
Thursday night through Wednesday As of 130 PM Wed,
Key Messages,
- Light rain possible Friday night as a warm front moves across northern NC
- Above normal conditions Saturday and Sunday with temps reaching the upper 60s to low 70s
- A pattern changing arctic cold front will move through the area Sunday or early Monday with well below normal conditions returning through early next week
High pressure ridge over the SE US breaks down temporarily Friday as an area of low pressure moves across the Mid-Atlantic. This will bring widespread cloudiness to ENC, and a warm front will skirt northern NC Friday night with scattered showers developing along it. Very light precip amounts expected, but areas along the Albemarle Sound and NOBX could pick up to a tenth of an inch of rain overnight. It will be cooler due to the clouds, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 50s.
High pressure ridge rebuilds over the weekend with very warm and dry conditions expected. Temps will climb to the upper 60s to low 70s, though chillier conditions are expected along the OBX.
A strong cold front is likely to move through the area Sunday or early Monday, and will bring much colder conditions to the Carolinas through early next week. Limited moisture will be available with this front, and only scattered areas of light rain expected as it moves through.
00z Thursday through Monday As of 1900 Christmas Eve, Carrying VFR flight cats through the TAF period. Skies will gradually become more SCT-BKN with mid level clouds later in the overnight hours into Christmas morning. Overnight, light to calm winds veer from NEerly to Serly as SFC high traverses the FA and slides offshore to the SE by early morning hours. Scattered -SHRA will be possible after 12Z with weak warm front lifting through the area in the afternoon and cold front eventually crosses overnight. Lower clouds increase likelihood of a brief period of MVFR CIGs with passage of the cold front overnight, but after the end of this TAF period.
Outlook: Generally quiet through the end of the week with VFR conditions expected for much of ENC.
As of 130 PM Wed,
Key Messages,
- Small Craft conditions will continue this afternoon over the coastal waters and eastern sounds after a brief lull this morning
- Another round of Small Craft conditions will develop late tomorrow over most of the coastal waters through Friday
- Small Craft Advisories extended to Friday night/Saturday morning, but winds and wind directions will be quite variable through this period
- Additional rounds of Small craft conditions likely this weekend and into early next week
Chaotic boating conditions expected in the short term as multiple fronts cross area waters in quick succession through the holidays.
Behind a cold front, winds will increase later this afternoon when a secondary surge of northerly winds moves north to south across the marine waters and winds increase to N 20-30 kts with brief gusts to 35 kts. By this evening winds will be decreasing to under 25 kts, and then by Christmas morning winds will be E/SE at 5-15 kts. Winds will quickly restrengthen through the day tomorrow, becoming SW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts over the coastal waters. Winds shift to the north tomorrow night at 15-25 kts before subsiding to NE 10-20 kts by Friday morning.
Seas will be 3-5 ft until this afternoon, when waves increase to 5-7 ft. Seas then subside to 3-5 late tonight through Christmas morning. Seas increase again to 5-7 ft late Christmas evening, and remain high through Friday night.
SCA headlines were extended through Friday except for central waters, which run through Sunday morning, to capture the close progression of the fronts and their associated surges.
Outlook: Conditions temporarily improve over the weekend, but seas may exceed 6 ft occasionally. Winds increase again late Sunday in advance of a strong cold front with widespread Small Craft conditions likely developing.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 7 am EST Saturday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EST Friday for amz156-158.
