Key MESSAGE 1, As of this evening, a deepening Nor'easter will continue to lift along the Mid-Atlantic and NE coast tonight. Eventually, the system will weaken and lift NE away from the U.S. East Coast early next week.
The dry airmass should keep most of ENC dry today. The one exception, though, is along the NRN OBX. There, increasing CAA on the western periphery of the Nor'easter should lead to steep low- level lapse rates along the length of the Chesapeake Bay. This plus a favorable trajectory down the length of the Bay could support a band of light showers extending southeast from eastern VA into NE NC, though little on radar at this time. Keeping PoPs from previous forecast here intact, just a slight chance, with the most likely scenario being iso showers confined offshore.
Despite winds and seas gradually decreasing today, coastal impacts will continue to plague portions of the OBX. Buoys currently show wave heights of 10-13ft at 12-13 seconds, and this should continue to lead to wave runup and ocean overwash impacts along vulnerable stretches of the OBX, with a continued focus on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Portions of NC-12 remain closed on both Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Adding to the impact of the wave runup and overwash is the already elevated astronomical tides ongoing through the weekend. Cf Warnings already in place were extended as well as the High Surf Advisory. In addition, as the Nor'easter pulls away from the area, a more moderate westerly wind is expected to develop by Sunday, and this may lead to a risk of very minor coastal flooding around Roanoke Island. Out of an abundance of caution, has extended the CF.advy through tomorrow evening's high tide cycle with up to 1ft of inundation possible on ocean-side locations due to the battered dune structures and localized minor sound-side possible through the day tomorrow due to the Werly winds and higher tide cycle mentioned above. The coastal flood warning will likely be replaced with an advy when the warning comes down tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2, By mid to late next week, a notable upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Southeastern U.S. This combined with rising low-level thicknesses in southerly flow should support warming temperatures, including the potential for a period of above normal highs once again. Moisture is forecast to be slower to return, and this should support mostly dry conditions for much of the upcoming week.
00z Sunday through Thursday VFR flight cats reported currently and likely to persist through the TAF period. Lower clouds centered around the Nor'easter, with debris clouds reaching ENC. Vfr persists SUN with a Werly breeze with some gustiness during peak heating.
Outlook: Winds will continue to gradually decrease over the remainder of the weekend as the Nor'easter pulls slowly away from the area and weakens. A dry airmass in the wake of that system should allow VFR conditions to prevail into at least the first half of next week.
Deepening Nor'easter continues to push towards the Mid-Atlantic and NE coast this afternoon. Latest obs show NWerly winds, 5-10kt inland rivers, 10-15kt larger sounds, with outside waters showing 10-25kt, strongest Nern waters. Seas 10-12 ft north of Ocracoke and 4-8ft south. All SCAs on the inside have been dropped slightly ahead of schedule with winds falling off quickly this evening. Scas continue for the coastal waters. Winds continue to relax tonight as the Nor'easter finally lifts further away from the local area. W-NW winds 10-20 kt Sun with seas slowly subsiding with the offshore flow.
Outlook: Boating conditions are expected to substantially improve as we move into next week. Northerly flow is forecast to shift to southerly flow by the middle of the week.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Coastal flood advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until midnight EDT tonight for ncz204- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Sunday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 5 pm EDT Sunday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for amz156-158.
