Key MESSAGE 1, The next cold front to impact ENC is slated for late Friday into Saturday. Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to quickly rebound back above normal, especially tomorrow and Friday. Increased moisture advection along the southward-advancing frontal zone looks to support the next appreciable chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Instability continues to look meager, though, and the severe thunderstorm risk appears to be very low (less than 2%). Overall moisture does not look to be supportive of heavy rainfall, with average amounts a tenth of an inch or less save higher amounts in thunderstorms. Behind this front, another surge of northerly winds is expected Friday night and Saturday, along with cooler, below normal temperatures returning over the weekend. There is a potential for frost Saturday night with NBM probs currently around 50 percent across inland counties up to 70% across western Martin Co.
00z Thursday through Monday VFR conditions currently across the terminals early this evening with sct to bkn cu. High pressure to the NE will continue to slowly shift offshore tonight, which will eventually allow for light return flow to develop as the weak coastal troughing that was offshore pushes inland while dissipating. Outside of periods of mid and high clouds, the only low level clouds expected will come this afternoon and evening at ~FL040-060, but will likely remain scattered in nature. Lower level clouds may skirt the coast and Outer Banks as moisture increases tonight, but even there VFR conditions are expected to persist. Pessimistic guidance has taken into account the calming winds, fairly clear overnight skies, and added moisture from the onshore flow this evening and is highlighting the entire FA as having the potential for patchy fog development. Select models show VLIFR VIS conditions with this fog across the entire region, but confidence in the fog development at all isn't very high, let alone that dense. Because of this, have will continue to show MVFR fog developing, with best chances at OAJ and EWN. If fog does development overnight, it will dissipate quickly THU morning leading to VFR flight cats and strengthening SWerly flow through THU afternoon.
Outlook: The next cold front is forecast to reach ENC late Friday, pushing offshore by Saturday morning. Similar to this recent front, there will be a risk of SCT SHRA, isolated TSRA, and a notable northerly wind shift. Once again it looks like there will be a risk of 20-35kt wind gusts behind the front. Sub VFR conditions may develop as well, especially where SHRA develop.
High pressure has pushed off the Mid-Atlantic coast while a coastal trough resides along the coast. Currently seeing easterly winds around 15 kt or less with seas around 3-5 ft. Winds will continue to veer to southerly tonight as the high pushes farther offshore and the coastal trough dissipates with seas diminishing to 2-4 ft. S to SW winds will gradually increase Thursday afternoon as gradients tighten in advance of the frontal system. Pessimistic guidance is highlighting the nearshore and inside waters for fog development with the added low level moisture from the coastal trough pushing ashore while it dissipates. I have added 3-5mi VIS fog to the grids for THU morning, but confidence in sub 1mi VIS as advertised by select models is low.
Outlook: The next round of impactful winds and seas is expected to develop late Thursday night into Friday and persist through Saturday as the next cold front moves through. Once again, a period of northerly post-frontal gales will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning. Seas will likely remain elevated into at least Sunday.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
