Key MESSAGE 1, The nor'easter is sitting well offshore, with the RAP MSLP at a minimum of 1009mb. As high builds in the wake of the cold front, strong CAA and gusty nrly winds continue, aided by the deepening low offshore. There continues to be high confidence that a strong Nor'easter will strengthen and linger well off the Carolina coast through early/mid this work week. Strong winds, high waves, and coastal flooding as well as extremely dangerous marine conditions will continue.
There is still model uncertainty beyond early week on where the low pressure area will be, but the trend in 18/00Z global guidance including ensemble packet has continued to show a shift a bit further offshore. Of note, quick strengthening of the low as it meanders offshore in addition to a slight westward shift is being indicated by CAMs and some synoptic guidance Monday. To account for this, wind gusts have nudged up a bit Monday. Further increases are possible if future guidance locks in on this trend. Confidence in coastal impacts is high, as long duration and long fetch nerly winds will bring large waves and pile up water along the coast, leading to coastal flooding well into the week.
High winds on the coast still expected. Have dropped the Wind Advisory for Mainland Hyde with the most recent forecast keeping the strongest winds along OBX. We will have to watch model trends in case the low deepens substantially and shifts a bit west Monday into Tuesday, in which case chances of stronger wind gusts near 50mph would increase.
2-4 foot above ground level coastal flooding will be possible with minor to moderate impacts throughout the Outer Banks, Core Banks and Downeast Carteret County. Impacts are expected to both sound and oceanside locales with potentially significant impacts to vulnerable areas on the ocean side. A mix of coastal flood headlines is in effect to cover these hazards. One recent addition to the suite of coastal headlines was to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for Tyrrell County. The Sheriff's office reported HWY 94 is flooded, with additional public reports of deep water along that stretch of highway. This is likely due to water piling up on the southern end of the Alligator River with strong, gale-force winds blowing straight south down the length of the river.
Additionally, a high surf advisory is in effect for the Outer Banks with breaking waves of generally 8-14 feet expected in the surf zone. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is also expected through much of the week.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Temperatures have cooled substantially with the northerly surge. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range with cooler values inland and warmer temperatures near the coast. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland just after the frontal passage to the 50s by the end of the week with coastal locations in the 50s early in the forecast period to near 60 by the end of next week. Winds will remain breezy, particularly in the afternoons depending upon the eventual track of the offshore nor'easter.
As the low meanders offshore, some wrap around rain may occasionally sneak back onshore, with best chances on the OBX over the next several days.
07z Sunday through Thursday Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.
The strong pressure gradient with a nor'easter strengthening offshore and a high over the Ohio Valley continues to support gusty north winds through the period. Gusts of 25-35kt will be common.
While VFR is likely to prevail on Sunday, SCT cumulus clouds on the NW side of the low may briefly reach BKN coverage with CIGs around 3-5k ft.
Outlook (Sun Night through Thu): VFR but windy conditions expected next week as the offshore low remains well east of the coast. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing.
Latest obs show northerly winds of 25-35kt sustained, with peak gusts of 30-45kt. Seas continue to build, with buoys east of the Outer Banks reporting 10-14 ft closest to shore and 12-18ft likely offshore. Periods have built to 9-13s. South of Cape Lookout, seas of 6-10ft at 7-9s are being reported.
Have converted remaining storm warnings to gale warnings, as surge of winds not expected to be widespread ~50 kt.
Very dangerous marine conditions will continue as low pressure is forming well off the NC coast but cont to supply a steady fetch of strong nerly winds into ENC. Gale warnings are in effect through Wed, and may have to be extended with oncoming fcst shifts esp if coastal storm stalls off the coast the middle of next week. There is large model spread beyond early week on how long the low will meander, as a blocking pattern remains to the north and east.
Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Wave periods will peak around 13-15s into mid week as waves build to 7-15 ft in the 0-20nm zones and 15-25 ft in the 20-60 nm zones. These hazardous conditions are expected to continue into next week, although the eventual end time is still uncertain.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 5 pm EDT Monday for ncz046-094- 194. Wind advisory until 8 pm EDT Monday for ncz047-196. Coastal flood advisory until 11 am EDT Monday for ncz195. Beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz195-196-199-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT Monday for ncz196. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT Monday for ncz196-204. Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm EDT Tuesday for ncz203. High surf advisory until 5 pm EDT Tuesday for ncz203-205. Wind advisory until 8 am EDT Tuesday for ncz203>205. Coastal flood warning until 5 pm EDT Tuesday for ncz204-205. Marine, gale warning until 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz131-156-158-188-230. Gale warning until 8 pm EDT Wednesday for amz135-150-152-154- 180-182-184-186-231. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz136. Gale warning until 10 pm EDT this evening for amz137.
