Key MESSAGE 1, A mid level shortwave is currently making its way across central NC at the moment with isolated showers and thunderstorms noted across ENC (10-30%). More widespread precip is noted offshore (40-60%). This is forecast to continue into tonight before the mid-level shortwave pushes offshore and precip chances end from west to east. A second more widespread area of rain is currently noted well to the south along a stalled frontal boundary near SC/GA. This rain is forecast to remain to the south of the area tonight as well, keeping the area dry but cloudy. Next challenge for tonight will be how quickly cloudcover exits the region. This will have an impact on if we see any fog tonight across ENC given the expected light winds and moist boundary layer. If cloud cover sticks around shorter than currently expected a threat for patchy fog would increase (20-40%). We will continue to monitor the trends this evening to see which way the forecast leans.
For tomorrow, forecast continues to suggest the area remains mostly dry, with subsidence in wake of todays shower activity. Will note it does look like a seabreeze sets up tomorrow and we could see an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon but the bulk of the guidance remains on the dry side. Broad srly flow on Sunday will lead to MaxTs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Not much change in forecast thinking for now, though we have seen some trends in the 12Z guidance. Decent agreement on next stronger shortwave and attendant cold front moving through the region Monday. This system will have decently strong dynamics with fairly sharp troughing aloft pivoting over ECONUS to become more negatively tilted and potentially steeper lapse rates. Guidance has trended slightly later with the frontal passage with northern areas seeing the front move through by mid morning and the front then getting to the south of the region by the afternoon hours which would allow for most of the support aloft to arrive slightly later than the SFC front. A severe thunderstorm threat is possible with this system, with the main threats appearing to be severe wind gusts and large hail, along with heavy downpours. Cape values on the order of 0.5-1K J Kg per latest 09 2Z model suite which is slightly lower than the earlier 00Z guidance so this trend will need to be monitored. Given the timing for the front this would put the best chance at seeing any stronger storms closer to areas along and south of Hwy 70 Mon. Available model guidance suggests another quick half to one inch of rain for a lot of the area with the Sern coast potentially seeing up to an inch and a half this FROPA. Spc has maintained a marginal threat (level 1/5) for the Crystal Coast, which is where the greatest instability would be with the front approaching ~HWY70 during peak heating. Stout CAA out of the N (strongest winds over coast, 20-25kt gusts) will bring in cool air and keep skies mostly clear into mid- week. Upper 40s/upper 60s split TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 3, A stacked low cutting across the Sern extent of the Great Lakes and high pressure migrating offshore brings warm and moist air across the Carolinas mid week ahead of the next front set to cross the area around the Thursday time frame. Will need to watch this system for severe potential as well.
18z Saturday through Thursday Showers will be very isolated for the rest of today with greatest chances (15-20%) remaining roughly south of Highway 70. Scattered to broken mid-level clouds will lift this evening and we'll likely hang on to a broken deck of upper-level clouds overnight. Given that the boundary layer has been moistened today and winds are expected to decouple late tonight/early Sunday morning, there's potential for some patchy fog to develop. If it weren't for the broken deck that's forecast to linger overnight, denser fog could be expected. Therefore, if there are any breaks in the clouds overnight, some areas could radiate better than others and drop visibilities to lower than the 5SM that's currently included for all TAF sites from 08-11Z. Tomorrow, broken upper-level clouds will scatter out and diurnal cu will develop with easterly winds at 5 kt.
Outlook: The next opportunity for sub-VFR conditions looks to be focused Sunday night into Monday as a cold front sags south towards, and eventually through, ENC with an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA early Monday morning. Reduced VIS and lowered CIGs are expected as well.
Aforementioned low that has been bringing showers and thunderstorms to the offshore waters today will gradually push further out to sea ending any thunderstorm threat late tonight. As previously stated did see a brief period of 25 kt gusts across the central waters with seas reaching 6 ft as well this morning. But, this generally occured in conjunction with ongoing shower and tstm activity. Winds and seas are on the downtrend once again so not anticipating any SCA issuance this afternoon for those waters. Otherwise obs currently show widespread 5-10 kt winds with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds become SW-W at 10-15 kts tonight and persist through Sunday while seas remain around 3-5 ft.
Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): SWerly winds strengthen some Sunday night into Monday ahead of next fropa with SCA conditions becoming more likely with post frontal northerly flow of 25+ kt MON evening and into Tuesday. Scas likely for all coastal waters with inside waters potentially seeing SCA gusts. Offshore waters showing gale potential overnight MON night into early TUE morning. Winds diminish later Tuesday into Wednesday as high pres reestablishes itself with benign boating conditions forecast on Thursday.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
