High pressure shifts offshore this morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest, and crosses through ENC tonight. High pressure then rebuilds offshore Christmas day and will remain in place into this weekend. Another frontal system will move through the region Sunday or early Monday.
Until 6 pm this evening As of 2 AM Tue,
Key Messages,
- 20-50% chance for light rain today, highest across NE NC, but rainfall amounts will be minimal
With high pressure still overhead, good radiational cooling has led to temps falling into the 30s, where they remain nearly steady thanks to a steady stream of high/mid based clouds over ENC. These clouds are finally sliding off the NC coast, and areas where skies clear could see temps quickly fall into the low 30s before low level clouds move in just before daybreak.
A weak cold front will approach from the NW today, with an area of light rain showers moving along it. Limited moisture return will result in only trace or minimal rainfall amounts, and the best chance to see rain will be across NE NC (40-60%). South of US 70, we'll be mostly dry today, aside from a small window for scattered light rain. Temperatures will be very slow to rise initially, despite WAA ramping up, due to widespread cloud cover and light rain. Eventually by this afternoon as rain moves out and clouds become more scattered, temps will rise into the upper 50s to low 60s.
6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday As of 2 AM Tue,
Key Messages,
- Mild temps tonight, and above normal temps with abundant sunshine for Christmas Eve
Behind the weak cold front CAA will be meager, and expect lows to remain in the mid to upper 40s as the boundary layer remains mixed. High pressure will continue to build in from the southwest and northwest Christmas Eve. This will keep northerly flow at the surface while low level thicknesses remain above normal. Due to the strong N winds, there will be quite a temperature gradient due to onshore flow off the cold ocean/sounds with areas along the OBX and Inner Banks remaining in the 50s for highs, while the coastal plain and southern NC coast see highs climb into the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday night through Monday As of 2 AM Tue,
Key Messages,
- Mostly dry conditions expected into this weekend with only some minor chances for light rain
- Above normal conditions continue through this weekend, with highs in the 60s to low 70s each day (except Friday which will be cooler)
- A pattern changing cold front will move through the area Sunday or early Monday and bring a return to below normal conditions early next week
A strong ridge of high pressure will develop across the Gulf States Christmas Day and remain in place into this weekend. This will give us mostly warm and dry weather, however at times disturbances moving along the periphery of the ridge will bring chances for light rain to ENC. The first will be Christmas Day when an isolated shower will be possible around the Albemarle Sound and points north. The second will be Friday night when a disturbance and associated warm front graze North Carolina. A stronger cold front is likely to move through the area Sunday or early Monday, and will bring much colder conditions to the Carolinas through early next week. There will also be chances for light rain for this system, but only light precip amounts are expected at this time.
12z Tuesday through Saturday As of 630 AM Tuesday, Generally VFR conditions will persist through the period. A 5-7 kft cloud deck is progressing through the region ahead of a cold front, bringing light rain or drizzle with it. Evaporative cooling processes may bring these clouds decks a bit lower through the morning, although there is only a 20% chance of reaching MVFR ceilings (<= 3 kft). As it can't be completely ruled out, I have a few030 deck mentioned in TAFs late this morning into the afternoon hours. We will also see LLWS concerns and wind gusts of 15-20 knots from the SW today. Ovc low/mid clouds will diminish to a few mid-level clouds by the evening. Tuesday night will bring clear skies and light winds. Where winds become calm, there would be a risk of fog and low stratus.
Outlook: Generally quiet Wednesday through the end of the week with VFR conditions expected for much of ENC.
As of 2 AM Tue,
Key Messages,
- Gale conditions will develop later today over the Gulf Stream waters between Oregon Inlet and Cape Lookout. Small Craft conditions will be seen over the northern coastal waters and Pamlico Sound
- Behind a cold front tonight, a surge of northerly winds will keep Small Craft conditions in place through Wednesday for the coastal waters and eastern Sounds
- On and off Small Craft conditions expected for the rest of the week and into this weekend Winds are currently light and variable early this morning but will soon begin to strengthen out of the SW. Winds will become SW 20-30 kts with gusts to 35-40 kts over the warmer ocean waters this afternoon, and SW 15-25 kts elsewhere. Winds will slowly veer tonight behind the front to the W and then WNW at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. A surge of stronger northerly winds are expected by early tomorrow morning at 20-30 kts with a few gusts to 35 kts.
Seas will be 3-5 ft through the rest of the morning and then increase to 5-8 ft by late this afternoon. Seas then subside to 4-6 ft tonight and remain in this range Wednesday.
Outlook: Conditions quickly improve Wednesday night with winds veering from NE to S by Thursday morning. Winds will again increase out of the SW Thursday afternoon with Small Craft conditions likely on most of the coastal waters. Conditions temporarily improve Friday, but winds come up again Friday night to Small Craft levels into Saturday morning.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm EST Wednesday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm EST Wednesday for amz150. Gale warning from noon today to 1 am EST Wednesday for amz152- 154. Gale warning from noon today to 8 pm EST this evening for amz156-158. Small craft advisory from 9 am to 7 pm EST Wednesday for amz231.
