Key MESSAGE 1..High pressure has shifted offshore and SW flow will continue to advect in moisture. Temps will warm through Wednesday in response, reaching the low/mid 80s inland and mid/upper 70s at the beaches.
If we're able to overcome the dry layer between 700-850 mb, Wednesday's seabreeze could produce some isolated showers and storms, but guidance is not excited about convective potential. Machine learning guidance shows low severe probs (10% or less), but decent bulk shear and a LLJ could help produce a few stronger gusts within any convection that's able to develop. Precip chances will continue to increase into the night as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday night. At the surface, a cold front will move into ENC late Thursday afternoon/early evening and push offshore by Thursday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day, and there's a low but non-zero chance for some storms to be strong to marginally severe. Forcing will be lacking in the morning, and depending on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the evening front, destabilization may be dampened. Ample bulk shear will be present throughout the day, however, and the low that's expected to form along the front could produce an area of enhanced lift, but chances for severe storms remain low at this time (< 10%). Current QPF ranges from 0.5-1" with highest totals west of Highway 17.
In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW winds with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and 25-35 mph along the coast.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Surface high pressure will briefly build in on Friday. This should help keep most of the precipitation associated with the low along the offshore front south of our area, but isolated light showers along the immediate coast can't be ruled out Friday night as the high moves offshore. As the aforementioned offshore low moves northeast off the coast of the Carolinas on Saturday, showers will be possible with greatest chances near the water.
06z Tuesday through Saturday VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. High pressure centered offshore keeps steady SW'rly flow over the area for the most part keeping ENC well mixed, thus limiting any fog threat. Will note, while it's a low chance, some areas of ENC could briefly decouple close to daybreak. If this occurs there would be a non-zero threat for some patchy ground fog development near daybreak across ENC. Either way, regardless if ground fog does develop it will bring no impacts to operations. Much like yesterday S to SW winds will increase through the morning from about 5-10kts to 10-15 kts with gusts to around 20 kt from mid morning through the afternoon.
Outlook: Our next notable chance at sub-VFR conditions looks to be around Wednesday night/Thursday with the approach of a low pressure system and its associated fronts. This is forecast to bring showers and thunderstorms to ENC and thus potential for reduced ceilings and
Latest obs show SW winds at 10-20 kt and seas at 2-4 ft. These conditions will persist through tonight.
Outlook: SW winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Wednesday night. These conditions will persist until Thursday evening when prefrontal SW winds will increase to 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. Winds will veer to the NW Thursday night behind the front with seas peaking at 5-9 ft. Winds will decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt by Friday morning with good boating conditions returning by the afternoon.
Thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusts, will be possible on Thursday as well.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
