Key MESSAGE 1, Heat will be the name of the game over the next few days as the Bermuda high centered off the coast will slide S'wards towards the Gulf Coast States while a thermal trough remains over the Piedmont. This will keep low level flow generally SW to W over the next several days. As a result, some weak WAA will allow low level thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based off the offices climatological study this is forecast to result in highs in the low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast through much of the week before a front impacts the region resulting in cooler temperatures late week into the weekend.
Heat indices are forecast to peak around 100-105 this afternoon, just shy of advisory criteria, but are expected to climb to around 105-110 Tue through Thurs, and potentially lingering into Fri with heat headlines probably for much of the area. Lows will be in the 70s which won't provide much relief from the heat either. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated. Otherwise, a typical summer time pattern will be in place through much the week. Near zonal flow aloft with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area will result climo precip chances for the next several days with best chances through peak heating and seabreeze related for the most part but will also depend on timing and exact location of individual shortwave troughs. The severe threat appears minimal for the next couple of days with limited shear, though somewhat better shear develops toward the middle of the week. We do look to have increased precipitation chances closer to Fri and into next weekend with the approach of an incoming cold front.
07z Monday through Friday AMD NOT SKED continues to be appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing FAA comms issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. Nkt is the closest ASOS. Ewn is able to be dialed into to receive METARs.
Pred VFR conditions expected through the morning with light mixing curtailing fog development. Href probs for sub-VFR vsbys less than 10 percent. Cannot completely rule out sub-VFR stratus developing across some areas with HREF probs around 10-30 percent, highest across far northern rtes. Guidance is mixed with convective coverage this afternoon with many HiRes models keeping the area dry. However, shortwave energy will be pushing across the area this afternoon and some guidance does bring scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with best coverage east of Highway 17. Given the uncertainly in the models kept prob30 for thunderstorms in coastal TAF sites.
Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into mid week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible each day that could bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions.
A typical summertime pattern across the waters with S-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well.
A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent bring nocturnal driven over the Gulf Stream waters.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
