Key MESSAGE 1, Warm and dry conditions this afternoon with sunny skies and temps around 80 inland and 70s along the coast. A dry back door cold front will push through the region tonight bringing a cool down over the weekend with temps dropping to near normal and lows near to slightly above normal over the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2, High pres ridge begins to break down by Wednesday as an amplified upper trough over the central CONUS approaches the region. The attendant sfc low lifts into the Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday with a warm front currently progged to lift across ENC Thursday followed by the trailing cold front Thursday night. There is decent spread in QPF amounts among the models with this system but blend of models is currently showing around a quarter to three quarters of an inch, which won't make much of an impact to ongoing drought conditions across the region.
22z Friday through Wednesday Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There is a chance for a brief period of shallow fog to develop late this evening into the early morning hours ahead of a backdoor cold front. Probs are highest at around 30-50% near the Crystal Coast. Increasing NE winds behind the front will scour away any fog. Winds will gust to around 20-25 kt on Saturday. Could see MVFR STCU develop along the coast Saturday but should remain east of the TAF sites with KMRH having the greatest potential to see MVFR cigs.
Outlook (Sat night through Wed): Expect VFR conditions expected over the weekend into early next week as strong high pressure builds in from the north over the weekend into early next week.
Light winds across the waters this afternoon with seas around 3-5 ft. A backdoor cold front will push across the waters overnight with a NE surge 15-25 kt developing bringing SCA conditions across the coastal waters, with seas building to 4-8 ft. Added SCA for the sounds. Winds and seas diminish Sat night with the nearshore coastal waters expected to drop below SCA criteria.
Outlook (Sun through Wed): Conditions gradually improve early next week, though next rounds of high seas as early as Tue with next system approaching from the S and W.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 11 am EDT Saturday for amz131-135-230-231. Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 9 pm EDT Saturday for amz150. Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 1 am EDT Sunday for amz152-154-156-158.
