Low pressure will depart farther out to sea today with high pressure building back into the region before sliding offshore early this week. A front will move through mid-week with a second front expected late this coming week and weekend.
Through Monday As of 12 PM Sunday, High pressure is building in from the west and supplying plenty of sunshine across ENC. Light winds are out of the northwest and with slightly below normal high temps expected this afternoon. Most of the CWA will max out in the upper 40s to low 50s with the NOBX being the coolest in the mid 40s.
Tonight, mid and high clouds will increase as a mid-level shortwave moves across the area. Winds will be light to calm, and temps will drop to around 30 (upper 30s to near 40 along the OBX). Although guidance is not showing it, a moistened boundary layer and calm winds will open the door for shallow fog to develop late tonight/early Monday.
Monday night through 6 pm Monday As of 12 PM Sunday, High pressure will move overhead tomorrow morning, which will kick off the new week with clear skies and light winds. As the high moves offshore through the day, cloud cover will increase and winds will veer from east to southwest. Highs will be about 10 degrees warmer than today with most of the area reaching the upper 50s to low 60s (low 50s NOBX).
Monday night through Sunday As of 12 PM Sunday,
Tuesday through Wednesday, Gradually strengthening southwesterly flow will prevail through mid-week. Temperatures will climb in response to this WAA regime, with highs increasing to the upper-60s Tuesday and around 70 Wednesday (low 60s OBX). A weak low traveling along a coastal trough could produce some light showers along the OBX on Tuesday, but no more than a few hundredths is expected at this time.
Thursday through Sunday, A dry cold front will push across ENC late Wednesday as a shortwave trough swings quickly across the mid- Atlantic. This front is then expected to lift back north as a warm front on Friday before another frontal system pushes through the region over the weekend. Pops remain at slight chance to chance during this period with the greatest PoPs currently stretching from Saturday to Saturday night (30-40%). A much cooler airmass will take over behind this FROPA, knocking highs back down to the 50s.
00z Monday through Friday As of 700 PM Sun, Pred VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic expands over the coastal Carolinas. Clear skies through this evening will see increasing mid and high clouds overnight and Monday as weak embedded shortwave in northwesterly flow traverses the Appalachians. Light/calm winds and sct high clouds tonight will allow for good radiational cooling conditions but guidance keeps prob for fog quite low with most guidance showing less than 20 percent chance.
Outlook: Pred VFR conditions are expected over the next few days as high pressure builds in. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions possible Tuesday.
As of 12 PM Sunday,
Key Messages,
- Improving boating conditions today
- Another round of SCA conditions will be possible starting late Tuesday and lasting through early Wednesday amidst strengthening southwesterly flow
High pressure is moving in from the west and improving marine conditions. Latest obs show 15-20 kt northerly winds and 4-5 ft seas. Diamond is the only buoy holding on to 6 ft as of this update, so the SCA for the central waters remains in place until 7 PM tonight but may be able to be dropped early. Tomorrow, light winds will veer from NE to SW through the day and seas will be 2-3 ft. Southwest flow will strengthen through the day on Tuesday, ramping up to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet Tuesday night. Seas will build through the day as well and are expected to peak Tuesday night at 4-7 ft south of Oregon Inlet (4-5 ft to the north).
Winds and seas will relax early Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front that will move across the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This FROPA will veer the winds from southwesterly on Wednesday to northeasterly by Thursday morning and then back to the southwest Friday-Saturday.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
