Key MESSAGE 1, While seas have come down, minor soundside flooding (1 ft or less) is still possible for coastal areas adjacent to tidal rivers and sounds due to already elevated waters levels and high astronomical tides. The high astronomical tides peak on Tuesday, but seas have fallen substantially and winds will be significantly weaker than the past several days. At this time, no "new flooding," (i.e. Ocean overwash) is expected, but there still may be standing water on roadways, and in low lying or poor drainage areas, which would still have travel impacts. For areas along the Crystal Coast and areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound that saw flooding yesterday, we expect to see elevated water levels through Wednesday, but levels are not expected to be as high as they were on Sunday. This potential will continue to be monitored over the next couple of days, though, in case any coastal flood headlines are needed.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Upper level ridging is forecast to expand north and east from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast U.S. Coast through the week. Warming low-level thicknesses and the eventual return of southerly flow should allow temperatures to get back above normal to close out September and welcome in October. Moisture and humidity will gradually return as well, but it doesn't look like a quick return. This plus ridging aloft should help to keep the chance of precipitation low for much of the work week.
12z Monday through Friday Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.
During the day today, mostly clear skies are expected along with light and variable winds. Another round of mid-level CIGs may pivot south out of VA and into northern NC this evening, and a SCT to BKN mid-level cloud group has been added to KPGV and KISO for that time. South of those clouds, guidance suggests a better chance of MIFG/BR as low-level moisture may be higher than it was this morning, and there will continue to be good radiational cooling conditions.
Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of MIFG/BR, it appears that a mostly quiet period for aviation is in the cards through at least the middle part of the week.
Today begins an extended period of much-improved boating conditions. Over the next couple of days, winds will be light (5-10kt) and variable, which will be a noticeable change compared to the past several days. With the light winds, seas of 2-4ft this morning will lay down to around 2-3ft.
Outlook: Great boating conditions continue mid to late week with light and variable winds and seas of 2-3ft.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
