Key MESSAGE 1, A hot and humid day out there today as temps have gotten into the mid 80s to low 90s this afternoon under partly cloudy skies with heat indices up around 100F. Some mid level dry air and subsidence aloft has kept the area precip free this afternoon for now, however, can't rule out a very isolated shower along the sea breeze today. Not much relief from the heat tonight with lows in the 70s. We could see some increasing cloud cover and maybe some coastal showers/thunderstorms late tonight into Sun morning as a weak mid level disturbance that is currently producing shower and thunderstorm activity in coastal SC will track north and east making its closest point of approach today. Will note there is a better than not chance at much if not all of of this activity staying offshore but kept SChc to low end Chc PoPs noted along the Crystal Coast and S'rn OBX to account for this threat.
As we get later into Sun and then next week upper ridging and Bermuda high become suppressed as shortwave energy pushes across the Mid-Atlantic with more of a zonal pattern developing next week with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area. Next potential trough that makes its way slightly further south looks to be around mid to late week timeframe with the typical uncertainty in timing for this to occur. As a result climo precip chances are forecast for the next several days with best chances through peak heating and seabreeze related fro the most part/ Though chances and timing for precip later in the week will also depend of timing and exact location of individual shortwave troughs. The severe threat appears minimal through much of the period with limited shear, though somewhat better shear develops toward the middle of next week.
Hot temperatures continue into next week as well with highs in the lower 90s inland into Monday, then warming in to the mid 90s Tue/Wed and beyond. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat Risk increase to around 50-80% Monday through Thursday with highest probs on Tuesday and Wednesday.
00z Sunday through Thursday AMD NOT SKED continues to be appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing FAA comms issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. Nkt is the closest ASOS. Ewn is able to be dialed into to receive METARs.
Currently VFR flight cats across all TAF sites with S-SW breeze and mostly upper level clouds AoA FL100, but some MVFR CIGs present along the coast and offshore impacting MRH and some OBX terminals. These low clouds offshore and along the immediate coast may try to make their way inland, but are expected to remain E of all TAF sites through the overnight. Winds become light and skies clear resulting in the potential for an additional round of patchy fog late tonight into early Sun morning with the greatest risk to see fog across the SWern zones (OAJ TAF site and adjacent areas). This could bring vis and ceilings down to MVFR/IFR at times into Sun morning. Regardless of fog development in early morning hours SUN, VFR flight cats prevail through SUN outside of any seabreeze convection which is currently forecast at 15% PoP.
Outlook (Sunday afternoon through Thursday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into mid week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning.
Not much change in the marine forecast for the next few days as a Bermuda high centered offshore will be the main weather feature of note. We start out each day with S-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft.
Minimal shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and early evening, then chances increase tonight as a trough of low pressure rotates around the Bermuda High followed by a series of shortwaves pushing across the coastal waters. Expect chances for precip to continue into next week mainly being nocturnally driven and with the highest chances over the Gulf Stream waters.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
