Key MESSAGE 1, NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Fire weather risk will be marginal for the next few days, and IFD issuance may still be needed in subsequent forecasts. For tomorrow, RHs will likely be the limiting factor with a continuing slow but steady increase in Tds. Winds will likely be a few knots higher than today with stronger gusts as pressure gradient is pinched with the approaching front. Fire weather conditions may return next week behind the front, but this will hinge on rainfall amounts Sun and Sun night.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Mostly dry with above normal temps will continue through tomorrow, with high pressure anchored offshore. Marginal shower chances likely to persist the rest of this afternoon mainly across the inner coastal plain, as seen along the I-95 corridor on radar, and potentially return tomorrow. Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with high temps mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches. Mints generally around 60. A few records could be threatened the next few days - see the CLIMATE section for details.
KEY MESSAGE 3, A cold front will approach the area Sunday, moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday. Increasing shower chances Sunday and Sunday night, along with isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. Instability still looks meager, but shear will be marginally elevated at around 25 to 30 kt. Thus, if convection does develop a few stronger storm clusters may develop with a risk of downbursts. Spc has our area in a Day 3 Marginal risk to account for the threat. For rainfall accumulation, estimated probabilities are:
> 0.5": 50-60% > 1.0": 10-20%
NBM continues to depict the low pressure system expected to develop and travel along the front early next week, passing far enough offshore to keep the area mostly dry early next week. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early next week, then warming late week.
18z Friday through Wednesday There has been a slight increase in moisture and lift today compared to yesterday. For parts of ENC, this has supported increased cumulus development, with occasional CIGs around 4k ft. Regional radar even shows a few SHRA just west of the area. Some of these SHRA may come close to KISO and KPGV. Any SHRA that reaches those terminals should be very brief. Overnight into early Saturday morning, another round of BR/MIFG with reduced VIS will be possible. I added a mention of MVFR VIS to KOAJ and KEWN where confidence is the highest. On Saturday, slightly drier air and less lift should lead to less cumulus development, and a lowered risk of SHRA.
Outlook: The next opportunity for sub-VFR conditions is expected with a cold front on Sunday. The front is forecast to move through during the afternoon and evening hours with an increased risk of low CIGs and SHRA and TSRA. Additionally, there will be a risk of gusty southwest winds ahead of the front, with peak gusts of 20-25kt expected. A northerly wind shift is expected behind the front late Sunday night or early Monday morning, although the winds are not forecast to be as gusty by that time.
Latest obs show S to SE winds generally 5-15 kt with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the first tomorrow, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place through the period. Ssw winds 5-15 kt will continue into tonight, gusting up to 20kt during peak heating. Patchy sea fog will be possible across the northern waters overnight into later this morning. This fog could be dense at times and conditions will need to be monitored for possible Marine Dense Fog Advisory issuance.
Outlook (Sunday into Wednesday): SSW winds will increase through Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Fropa is expected late SUN into MON, which is the next best chance of SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. Sca conditions could begin as early as Saturday night, but will most likely begin Sunday morning. No SCA headlines will be issued this afternoon, but will likely be needed overnight. A minority of guidance does depict a minor risk of gales (10-20%), although this is confined to the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Front will be accompanied with showers and tstorms, a few which could be strong. N-NE winds will develop behind the front and continue through mid next week, which will likely bring more SCA conditions.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
