A warm front lifts northward through the Carolinas through early morning leading to above normal temps today. Breezy SW winds and brief showers ahead of a stout arctic cold front that will push through the area this afternoon. A return to seasonably cool conditions through mid week before a dry cold front moves through. A low pressure area may bring the next appreciable rain to the region this weekend.
Through today As of 915 AM Mon, Updated to inc wind gusts this afternoon, as strong mixing on warm swrly flow will produce wind gusts up to 30 mph esp inland from the coast, with lighter winds immediate beaches and OBX due to shallow/strong marine inversion with cold water. Also adjusted max T's down a couple degrees immediate coast and OBX, and up a couple degrees inland. Highs range from low 60s ctrl OBX to low/mid 70s interior.
Prev disc, As of 0230 Monday, Warm and breezy day in store with FROPA late in the day. Ahead of it, a quick moving, thin band of waning showers is expected, with highest concentration for the Nern zones N of HWY70, where 50-70% PoPs reside. Further S, forcing and moisture is more sparse, so PoPs remain 20-40%. Highs expected in the low 70s interior zones, but decent onshore flow over cold shelf/sound waters will keep the beaches cool in the low 60s for a better part of the day. A weak signal for sea fog due to the stable flow near the Crystal Coast and also OBX zones, though enough wind should prevent dense fog from developing.
Tonight As of 0230 Monday, Clearing skies and strong CAA develops behind the front with gusty NWerly winds persisting through the overnight period. Temps will fall steadily tonight, dipping into the 40s just after sunset and continuing to cool to MinTs into the upper 20s inland to 30s coastal sections with wind chill temps in the low/mid 20s all areas by daybreak tomorrow.
Tuesday through Sunday As of 1 AM Sunday,
Key Messages,
- Below normal temps into mid week.
- Dry with moderating temps for the latter half of the work week.
- Next appreciable chance for rain by the weekend with a low pressure system traversing the region. Tuesday and Wednesday, Arctic high pressure ridges into the area mid week with cyclonic flow persisting across the eastern CONUS bringing mainly clear skies and cold temps. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the coldest period of the week with highs in the mid 40s and lows 20-25, even close to the coast as winds will be light to calm. The airmass begins to moderate Wednesday with highs low 50s.
Thursday through Friday, A series of weak shortwaves will push through the area for the latter half of the work week bringing periods of mid and high clouds but deeper moisture will be lacking and expect dry condition to prevail with zonal flow. A dry front will push through the area Thursday night and stall south of the area Friday with brief high pressure building in.
Saturday through Sunday, The upper trough begins to lift out late in the week with a southern stream shortwave approaching the area over the weekend. Guidance indicating low pressure developing along the stalled front off or over the Southeast coast over the weekend and could bring accumulating rain to the region. For now timing and synoptic details yet to be determined so held pops in the 40-50% range. Temps near avg for early Jan with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the 30s.
14z Monday through Friday As of 555 AM Mon,
Key Messages
- Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible early this morning
- SW wind gusts to around 25-30 kt expected today
- Scattered showers this afternoon bring chances of sub-VFR conditions
Moist SW flow will continue into this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front bringing a mix of cigs across the terminals. Mix of VFR and MVFR across the terminals this morning. Sub-VFR could linger through mid morning. Scattered light showers expected this afternoon, along with the potential for a few hours of sub-VFR cigs. Rapid drying expected behind the front with skies clearing from west to east and VFR returning.
SW winds will gust to 25-30 kt this afternoon ahead of the front, which will become NW after the frontal passage late this afternoon while remaining breezy. Breezy SW winds could lead to crosswind impacts for EWN runway.
Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W-NW winds with gusts to around 20 kt expected Tuesday.
As of 915 AM Mon, Adjusted winds down for Pamlico/nearshore waters through this afternoon as strong marine inversion prevents ideal mixing, while inc them over the Gulf waters where sst's are in the 70s. Winds will gust to 25+ kt on Pamlico and nrn waters while just offshore in the 35-40 kt range. No changes to headlines.
Prev disc, As of 0400 Monday,
Key Messages,
- SCA continues through early this morning.
- A strong Arctic front will push through the waters Mon with gales over the coastal waters and SCAs in place for all inside waters.
Through Monday, South to southwesterly winds increasing ahead of an Arctic Front. Early morning shower activity wanes after sunrise. Forecast remains dry from midmorning until a thin band of showers just ahead of the front crosses from W to E in the afternoon and evening; highest PoPs Nern zones. Forecast winds and gusts have increased slightly from previous iterations and have opted to add the Nern coastal waters to the slew of Gale Warnings. With the 0400 update, have put the Gale Warning in effect for coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout as Diamond has been showing that winds are already overperforming all guidance. Remaining gale warnings go into effect from S to N after daybreak. Far Eern portions of PamSound may see some Gale gusts this evening, but have opted to leave the SCA in place for this zone due to brief duration and limited areal coverage of the strongest winds.
Monday Night through Tuesday, Strong arctic front moves through Mon evening with CAA ensuing and keeping winds high due to good mixing. Strong SCA conditions with wnw winds to 30 kt expected after midnight behind the initial push of post-frontal winds.
Tuesday night through Friday, Conditions expected to drop below SCA criteria by late Tuesday with W-NW flow around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-5 ft. Winds become swrly mid week but remain below SCA for most. Could see marginal SCA winds for the Gulf waters with swrly winds inc a bit late Wed/Wed night ahead of dry cold front set to move through Thu. Winds generally 10-15kt with higher gusts in W-NWerly winds late week.
Weekend, Strengthening low pressure works Eward from SECONUS, pushing off the coast somewhere from GA to SC latter half of Saturday. Represents the next chance for rain and rapidly deteriorating marine conditions.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to noon EST Tuesday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory until noon EST Tuesday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 am EST Tuesday for amz136-137. Small craft advisory until 7 pm EST this evening for amz150. Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 am EST Tuesday for amz150. Gale warning until 1 am EST Tuesday for amz152-154-156-158.
