Key MESSAGE 1, Disorganized area of low pressure is forming along the offshore frontal boundary. There continues to be high confidence that the offshore low will develop into a potential nor'easter and strengthen while lingering well off the Carolina coast through mid week. Strong winds, high waves, and coastal flooding as well as extremely dangerous marine conditions are expected. What is more uncertain is where the eventual track and strength of the low will be beyond Tuesday, as is often the case with a low pressure system that has not become organized yet.
As the low finally becomes to take shape and organize over the next 24 hrs, a better handle on where and when it tracks will become more certain. There is some concern for the low to deepen somewhat rapidly and shift further west, to a position that is not so far off the OBX. This bears some weight, as a cluster of solutions from the AIFS Ens indicate, but is a lower likelihood at this point. Some of the CAMs continue to hint at this solution and would lead to higher winds, potentially in the storm force range Tue into mid week. For now have cont to forecast a middle-of- the-road solution.
Gusty winds cont on the OBX, and have cont the wind adv here. Have dropped the wind adv for Mainland Dare and Downeast Carteret, as the stronger winds will be confined to the OBX going forward.
2-4 foot above ground level coastal flooding will be possible with minor to moderate impacts throughout the Outer Banks, Core Banks and Downeast Carteret County. Higher values will be on the OBX ocean side, whereas the lower end values on the soundside.
Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for Cape Lookout and points north through the OBX.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Pleasnantly cooler air mass that has advected in will remain with us through at least mid week with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.
As the low meanders offshore, some wrap around rain showers may occasionally sneak back onshore, with best chances on the OBX over the next couple of days.
18z Sunday through Friday The strong pressure gradient with a nor'easter strengthening offshore and a high over the Ohio Valley continues to support gusty north winds through the period. Gusts of 20-30kt will be common, highest near the coast at KMRH.
While VFR is likely to prevail inland TAF sites with bkn low end VFR, MVFR will plague KMRH from time to time, esp as we head into late tonight and Monday.
Outlook (Mon night through Fri): VFR and continued breezy conditions are expected to continue next week as the offshore low remains well east of the coast and high pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.
Latest obs show northerly winds of 25-30kt sustained, with peak gusts of 30-40kt. Seas continue 10-14 ft closest to shore and 12-18ft likely offshore. These northerly winds will continue through the first half of Monday at these speeds, then inc slightly in the afternoon and Mon evening to 30-35 kt sustained, gusting up to around 45+ kt, though should remain below storm force even in the outer waters.
Very dangerous marine conditions will continue as low pressure forms and deepens well off the NC coast but cont to supply a steady fetch of strong nerly winds into ENC, with east northeasterly swells.
Outlook (Mon Night through Fri): Gales begin to taper off first in parts of the sounds and southern waters Monday night, then further east by mid week, though may have to be extended with oncoming fcst shifts for much of the coastal waters. There is large model spread beyond Tuesdsay on how long the low will meander and how much it strengthens, as a blocking pattern remains to the north and east through mid week.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 5 pm EDT Monday for ncz046-094- 194. Beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 11 am EDT Monday for ncz195. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT Monday for ncz196. High surf advisory until 5 pm EDT Tuesday for ncz196-204. Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm EDT Tuesday for ncz203. High surf advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for ncz203-205. Wind advisory until 6 am EDT Tuesday for ncz203>205. Coastal flood warning until 5 pm EDT Tuesday for ncz204-205. Marine, gale warning until midnight EDT Monday night for amz131-158- 230. Gale warning until midnight EDT Wednesday night for amz135. Small craft advisory until 4 am EDT Tuesday for amz136. Small craft advisory until 6 pm EDT Wednesday for amz137. Gale warning until 6 am EDT Thursday for amz150-152-154-156- 180-182-184-186. Gale warning until noon EDT Wednesday for amz188. Gale warning until 6 pm EDT Wednesday for amz231.
