Key MESSAGE 1, Strong high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will result in a period of continued large waves across the OBX. The high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to additional minor coastal flooding impacts.
For Hatteras Island, seas offshore continue in the 7-9 foot range and will remain in this range today, and then slowly subside through the coming week, but long period swells will continue to cause issues for vulnerable areas. For ocean-side: high tide is between 0730-0800 EDT today. Soundside high tides lag from 2 to 3 hours behind the oceanside tides. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe.
Coastal flooding will be likely well into this week despite the diminishing of winds, with "sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of ENC around times of high tide, then slowly improve as the King Tides ease later in the week and into the weekend. Coastal flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle on Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Pleasantly cooler and drier air mass will remain with us through early this week, with near climo highs, to slightly below avg lows, esp Sun and Mon nights when good radiational cooling yet again sets up with lows well down into the 40s with some 30s again possible TUE morning when the high pressure ridges into ENC allowing for excellent rad cooling under clear skies, calm winds, and low TD's. Hts/thicknesses then begin to build by mid week, with temps climbing back above climo with highs in the mid 70s, then upper 70s by Thursday into the weekend. Lows will remain closer to climo (50s) as dry airmass remains with a large diurnal temp range.
06z Monday through Friday VFR mainly SKC through the TAF pd. Chances for fg/br are very low through this morning With both HREF and REFS showing probabilities of vis below 5 miles sitting around 10-20% across the far western Coastal Plain. Winds will be much lighter today with high pres building in, and speeds in the 5-10 kt range, then becoming calm tonight with high pres building in.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): Generally, expect VFR conditions to continue through the week with quasi-stationary high pres over the region. However, coastal sections could see ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic. Winds become calm MON night/early TUE as strong inversion develops with high pres overhead with skc and calm winds, opening potential for some patchy fog to develop, though with dry airmass cont, widespread fog threat is quite low.
High pres has begun to move into ENC, and winds are responding by diminishing. All remaining SCA headlines are over for the Pamlico sound, and gales have ended for the outer southern coastal waters. High seas will cont today in the 6-9 ft range.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): Longer period swells are slow to subside this week with a tightened pres gradient remaining to the south of ENC, and SCA headlines cont for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet through Thursday morning.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 2 pm EDT Thursday for ncz080-094- 194>196-199-203>205. Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz196-199- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until midnight EDT tonight for amz150. Small craft advisory until noon EDT Thursday for amz152-154- 156-158.
