Key MESSAGE 1, Post-Troppical Storm Arthur's remnants moving offshore of NC this afternoon. Subsidence in it's wake will limit any additional showers for the most part. May be some renegade showers across mainly nern zones, but majority of ENC will be dry rest of the late afternoon into this evening.
Drier and slightly cooler temps return for this weekend. Temps should be back to near climo, with highs in the 80s, and lows in the mid/upr 60s interior to low 70s beaches.
KEY MESSAGE 2, High pres shifts offshore early next week, while another shortwave swings ewrd acrs the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region. This will drag a cold front into the Southeast, but as is typical this time of year, the front gets hung up inland from the coast. Returning rich low level moisture in tandem with the inland front and sea breeze will act to kick off showers and storms Monday afternoon, mainly inland zones along and west of the sea breeze. Hot and humid conditions return as well, though heat indices should remain below the 105 degree threshold attm. The daily shower/storm chances remain through mid week with no higher than chc/sct mention (30-50%). Little shear in place so any storms should remain sub severe. Temps will be slightly above climo. Breeziest day looks to be Monday with aforementioned front to the west and tightened thermal gradient.
18z Friday through Wednesday Conditions improving as the low moves away and dry air moves in. Hanging onto a MVFR deck for another hour before the dry air infiltrates the lower levels. Mo skc tonight with light/vrbl winds. Light winds below 10 kt will cont on Sat with high pres in the vicinity.
Outlook (Sun through Wed): Overnight fog and stratus threat possible each morning. Weekend will be dry with high pres and predominant VFR expected. Next rain chances will be on Monday afternoon evening in form of typical diurnal thundershowers. The daily shower/storm threat will cont through mid week.
Will drop the gales and convert to SCA's for the coastal waters as winds have slacked behind the earlier convective line that moved through in association with low pres.
Winds will turn nwrly then nerly overnight behind the departing low. For this weekend, light winds and low seas bring pleasant boating conditions with high pres in vicinity.
Outlook (Sun through Wed): On Mon, s to swrly gradient inc due to front approaching from the west and tightening of the thermal gradient. This will kick up nearshore winds to 25+ kt with SCA's likely needed for much of the marine domain including inland sounds and rivers. By Tue winds and seas return to below SCA levels, with just a typical uptick in late afternoon, early evening winds due to daily weak thermal gradient.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-204-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz152- 154-156-158.
