Key MESSAGE 1, The Arctic airmass will keep temperatures below normal through Thursday. Today, highs will be in the upper 40s/low 50s with ample sunshine. Lows Thursday morning will again dip to the lower end of guidance (NBM10) as dry high pres will be centered overhead. Given that we've had very warm temps over the past several weeks, precautions should be taken to protect any vulnerable plants through Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2, We'll gradually warm from late-week through the weekend. On Thursday, temperatures will moderate to around or to only slightly below avg, in the upper 50s to low 60s (low 50s OBX). By this weekend, inland temperatures will be back into the upper 70s/low 80s with the beaches reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. Chances for precipitation will remain <15% through the weekend. While dry, fire weather concerns should remain rather low due to benign winds forecast through the weekend with high pres dominating.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Our next front isn't expected until later Sunday night or Monday, which will bring our next chance for showers and a resultant cooldown behind back door cold front. Models have trended stronger with aforementioned nnerly wind surge, esp near the coast. Pops have been raised into the 30-40% range early to mid next week behind the fropa.
12z Wednesday through Sunday VFR flight cats through the TAF period with light winds. Periods of inconsequential high based clouds through today and night. Nerly winds become more NEerly in afternoon, calming overnight. Lower level clouds, but still VFR, expected along OBX terminals through WED afternoon.
Outlook, Pred VFR flight cats will continue through the period with high pressure dominating the forecast through the remainder of the work-week.
The nwrly reinforcing surge has brought winds back up into the 15-20 kt range, but remaining below SCA levels. The exception is the ctrl coastal waters between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke Inlet, where ocnl seas of 6 ft are possible through today. Winds will Dec through the day today to 5-15 kt as high pres builds into the region.
Outlook (Thursday through Weekend): Good boating conditions are expected through the rest of the week as high pressure dominates. Winds will generally be 5-15 kt with 2-5 ft seas. The next best chance for SCAs will be late Sunday into early next week with the passage of a backdoor cold front with nerly winds inc to 20-30 kt and seas 6+ ft.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT this afternoon for amz152- 154.
