Key MESSAGE 1, A plume of tropical moisture characterized by 2"+ PWATs and dewpoints in the 70s will continue to overspread the Carolinas to the east of an advancing cold front through this evening. Special 11/18Z KMHX sounding analyzed a record high PW of 2.37" this afternoon. Tornado watch in effect until 8pm this evening as this rich tropical airmass in tandem with strong low level helicity with backed sfc flow will continue the tor threat. Overlap of best dynamics and supercell coverage will continue to be over the inland Coastal Plain counties, though a tornado cannot be ruled out further east as well through early this evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The remnants of Isaias are forecast to round the upper level ridge and move off the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast early next week. Drier air then moves in behind it with drying conditions developing through the upcoming week. With the drier air in place, overnight lows should be seasonbly cool, but building hts will lead to above climo high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s early in the week, and then even higher temps in the upper 80s to near 90 inland by mid week. Mostly sunny skies with high pressure will keep any rain chances away.
18z Sunday through Friday Widespread IFR conditions cont across all terminals as of 19z, and will be slow to lift through the rest of the afternoon, evetually becoming MVFR later this afternoon, and VFR this evening. A few thunderstorms possible through early evening. Upper low may bring a return of MVFR cigs Mon morning, before lifting to VFR though with strato cu linging through much of the day Mon.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): Pred VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure builds in.
Sca's in effect for much of the marine area, with the sounds seeing first improvement later this evening into Mon morning, then eventual improving conditions with seas subsiding below 6 ft for the coastal waters Mon afternoon. Winds turn from swrly this evening to wrly then nwrly on Mon.
For the convection threat, strong to severe thunderstorms containing waterspouts are possible through mid evening before cold front sweeps through overnight ending severe threat.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): High pres builds in Tue through the remainder of the week with pleasant boating conditions expected. Another front will push through the waters later in the week, likely Thursday, then a stronger front on Friday with SCA conditions possible behind it.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-203>205. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz204-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 am EDT Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 6 pm EDT Monday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Monday for amz152-154-156- 158. Gale warning until 2 am EDT Monday for amz182-184. Small craft advisory until 6 am EDT Monday for amz230-231.
