Key MESSAGE 1, Similar weather pattern expected today compared to yesterday, but this time with slightly better moisture as PWATs climb back to near 2". However, mid-level subsidence will be increasing as heights rise ahead of approaching ridge. This will likely quash more widespread activity, but with enough instability and sufficient lift from sea and sound breezes the more routine convection may briefly make an appearance this afternoon (Cedar Island and Stumpy Point cells come to mind). Any activity that does develop will quickly fall off around sunset.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Unusually strong mid-level ridge centered over the central MS River Valley this morning will continue to gradually build towards the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic into mid to late week. Underneath the risk, expansive area of anomalously warm low-level thicknesses will be in place across much of the southeastern CONUS as 850mb temperatures soar to between 20-25C, translating to surface highs well into the 90s to potentially 100 degrees. Additionally, persistent southerly surface flow as high pressure sits off the coast will keep dew points elevated in the 70s most days and evenings, especially from Wednesday into Friday.
The combination of the heat and oppressive moisture will make it feel like 105-110 degrees across a large portion of eastern NC mid to late week. Ecmwf's EFI continues to show a strong signal for anomalous highs for the period and even stronger for warm overnight lows, boosting confidence to this heat wave's impact. The NWS experimental Heat Risk puts a large portion of ENC in the "Extreme" impact category both Thursday and Friday but "Major" impacts as early as tomorrow.
Heat headlines will likely be needed starting Wednesday and run into late week. Heat headlines are very rare for our area in September - since 2005, the only time they have been issued for the month by our office was in 2020.
KEY MESSAGE 3, A strong cold front is forecast to move through the Carolinas on Saturday into Sunday. At minimum, this will knock down the heat, bringing a refreshing break from the anomalous heat and humidity. Additionally, guidance show a decent signal for convection with the front. Synoptically, the setup appears favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms depending on the timing of the passage of the front. Machine learning guidance shows a decent signal for this potential as well. From a probabilistic standpoint, the risk appears to be the highest on Saturday.
Behind the front, highs are forecast to drop back down into the 80s, with lows in the 60s. Adding to this will be dewpoints falling back into the 60s making it feel more comfortable.
06z Tuesday through Saturday Some spotty fog beginning to develop early this morning per satellite and observational trends, focused primarily across terminals south of EWN. Guidance continues to favor these areas early this morning for areas of fog especially after 10z with some localized drops to LIFR possible around dawn. Previous TAF forecasts were largely retained, although did drop visibilities down to 1SM at OAJ alongside EWN. Pgv and ISO are far less likely to see such restrictive visibilities and did not forecast anything worse than MVFR here.
Mostly dry conditions and a continued reduction in TSRA is expected today. Some spotty convection is possible along sea and sound breezes but probability of direct impact to terminals is less than 10%.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).
Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the end of the week along with a reduced risk of TSRA. Occasional sub-VFR conditions may occur during the early morning hours in BR/MIFG each day.
Good boating conditions are ongoing at this time with winds around 5- 10kt and seas of 1-2ft. This afternoon, a strengthening thermal gradient should lead to southwesterly winds building to 10- 15kt, with seas building to 2-3ft.
The risk of thunderstorms looks very low (<10% chance) through this afternoon for most waters. The exceptions are scattered tstorms across the far outer central and southern waters along the Gulf Stream, and isolated, weak, short lived showers/tstorms along the sea breeze capable of reaching inland rivers.
Outlook: Generally good boating conditions are expected through Friday. It will be breezy each afternoon and evening with the diurnal max of the thermal gradient, and some waters may come close to 25kt at times, especially Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend, a strong cold front is forecast to move through with a chance of thunderstorms and winds flipping around to northeasterly.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
