Key MESSAGE 1, There is little change in the synoptic setup as an upper level trough currently in the Tennessee River Valley has stalled across the area and will remain there into midweek before weakening and eventually getting absorbed by a passing northern stream trough late Wed into Thurs. This should keep the moisture channel open from the Gulf into at least midweek as upper level southerly winds remain in place advecting moisture northwards. A few shortwaves will transit around the base of the upper trough and lift north through the Carolinas through Wed. As the upper trough dissipates/gets absorbed later this week, any mid level forcing shifts farther inland away from ENC.
A stagnant surface front to our west will move little before dissipating on Wed. Given moist, southerly flow across the region combined with high PWATs (2.3+ inches), any thunderstorms that do form have the potential to produce heavy rainfall. Any addition areas where localized flash flooding could occur are confined to areas along the Crystal Coast and along the OBX south of Oregon Inlet.
KEY MESSAGE 2, By late week the area returns to climo or below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or significant forcing will be noted across Eastern NC. This will likely result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along the sea-breeze, but once again these chances should be isolated at best given the overall setup. After a cool start to the week temperatures begin to rebound back into the upper 80s to low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX.
00z Wednesday through Sunday Mainly VFR has returned to the TAFs early this evening. Moist southerly flow with nearly calm winds continues across the area tonight which may support shallow fog development. Have capped at 5SM but if winds can sufficiently decouple late, fog and low stratus may become a greater concern before sunrise. A few showers on Wed but few and far between and have not included in the forecast attm.
Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed and into the weekend as high pressure builds into the area.
Winds and seas continue to subside this afternoon as a stalled front to our west has continued to weaken with high pressure ridging building into the area. Ongoing S-SW winds at 10-15 kts and seas 2-4 ft are noted across across the coastal waters. As the aforementioned front gradually dissipates today and high pressure ridging builds farther over the area, winds and seas will remain sub-SCA, with SSW winds 5-10 kts and seas 2-4 ft through tonight.
Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Expect more benign winds and seas for the period as high pressure remains the dominant feature across the region. Winds generally remain below 15 kts and seas persist around 2-4 ft into the weekend.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-204-205. Marine, none.
