Cool dry air spills into the area as SFC high pressure passes over ENC tonight and tomorrow. A weak coastal low forms tomorrow night into Monday with light rain likely. High pres builds back in later Mon into mid to late week.
Until 6 am Sunday morning As of 2000 Saturday, Amplified upper air pattern across CONUS this evening as deep closed low continues to dig down the central MS River Valley, resulting in broad southwesterly flow across the Carolinas. Weak surface high pressure prevails over the southeastern states, and skies remain clear this hour over the region.
Skies are forecast to remain clear the first half of tonight as high pressure continues to be the dominant weather maker. We could see some increase in upper level clouds early Sun morning as upper trough and weak frontal surface reflection advance eastward. Given the skies and winds decoupling, temps crashed after sunset, quicker than previously forecast, which has led to a little bump down for hrly Ts and MinT. Temp decrease is expected to moderate but another night of MinTs in the mid 30s, maybe low 30s for typical cold spots, setting the stage for frost formation, especially west of Highway 17. Here, a Frost Advisory has been issued.
Closer to the coast, lows will sit in the 40s to around 50 directly on the water.
6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday As of 240 PM Sat, Dry and mainly clear start to Sunday, although clouds gradually increase through the day as aforementioned upper low digs further towards the southeastern CONUS. As is typical ahead of approaching upper lows, coastal trough expected to sharpen offshore and resultant increase in low level convergence will likely drive some light shower activity offshore, which may drift across the southern coastlines before sunset. Heavier rainfall, coinciding with strengthening IVT, will hold off until the overnight hours.
Temps slightly higher tomorrow despite strengthening easterly flow, rising into the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday night through Saturday As of 2 AM Sat,
Key Messages: - Low pressure system is forecast to impact ENC Sunday night into Monday bringing a threat for precip and breezy conditions
Overall a rather progressive upper level pattern sets up across the CONUS this coming week with multiple upper level troughs tracking across the Eastern Seaboard. Will have a chance at rain and breezy conditions Sunday night into Monday with the first trough with a much drier pattern setting up beyond that at the surface.
Sunday through Tuesday, Have continued to gain a further consensus on the upper level and surface pattern across the Eastern half of the CONUS over the next few days with just minor timing and location differences in the grand scheme of things. We will start the period out with a positively tilted upper level trough noted from the Interior Northeast S'wards into the Gulf Coast States. Latest trends suggests this upper trough will be rather progressive pushing offshore by Mon night/Tue. Associated mid level shortwave/closed low will be near the Tennessee River Valley on Sun eventually pushing off the Southeast Coast on Mon and then out to sea on Tue. At the surface, high pressure just to the north and east will track further out into the North Atlantic while surface cyclogenesis begins off the Southeast Coast Sun afternoon/evening. This will act to increase precip chances and NE'rly winds across the region Sun evening. Low pressure then begins to deepen as it tracks NE'wards Sun night into Mon, bringing a more widespread rain shield to ENC. Greatest chance to see precip will be east of Hwy 17 with lower chances further inland resulting in little help to the ongoing drought across the Coastal Plain. Latest guidance suggests general rainfall totals around 0.25-0.75" between Sun night and Mon night with high end amounts of 1-2" possible if low strengthens further than currently forecast and heavier rainfall spreads further inland. Low then pulls away from ENC Mon night into Tue morning bringing much drier weather to the area as high pressure ridging builds overhead on Tue. However, breezy winds especially along the OBX are expected through at least Tue evening as the gradient remains tight between the departing low and incoming high pressure system. Cold start to Sun with patchy frost likely mainly east of Hwy 17 Wed morning however we warm into the mid to upper 60s Sun and again on Mon. Highs are closer to the low to mid 60s on Tue as colder air filters into the region behind the departing low. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s Sun and Mon night with much colder temps expected Tue night with lows getting into the upper 30s inland and 50s along the OBX. This would once again bring the potential fro frost to portions of ENC Tue night into Wed morning
Wednesday through Friday. Progressive upper level pattern continues with next upper trough tracking across the Mid-Atlantic Wed night into Thurs and then yet another potential upper level trough tracking across the region by next weekend. At the surface, high pressure builds over the area Tue night and pushes offshore on Wed. A dry cold front tracks across the region Wed night into Thurs. Another ridge of high pressure then begins to build over the Mid- Atlantic Thurs into Fri. Temps remain about avg to slightly below avg to end the long term period.
00z Sunday through Thursday Through 00z Sun As of 1945 Saturday, VFR flight cats through the TAF period with SKC lasting through the overnight. Continued dry low levels prohibits any meaningful fog development. With that said, steam fog was seen on satellite last night over rivers further inland and with tonight's MinTs being slightly cooler, can't rule it out completely here. Hrrr and RAP biting hard on decreased VIS in swampy areas over Albemarle and Pamlico peninsulas, as low as IFR. Have added 6mi patchy fog to these areas to give the HiRes, quickly refreshing guidance a nod, but don't expect anything at TAF sites. Upper level cloud coverage increases from W to E Sunday morning onward with lower level clouds pushing in from offshore the latter half of the day Sunday, but remaining VFR through this TAF period. Rain chances begin to increase in conjunction with the timing of the low level cloud intrusion, but PoPs remain below 25% until ~22Z for coastal terminals. Winds out of the ENE AoB 10kts through Sunday.
Sunday night through Wednesday As of 2 AM Sat,
Key Messages,
-Next chance of sub-VFR conditions Sun night into Mon
As we get into Sun night and Mon, a developing coastal low pressure system brings a threat for sub-VFR conditions to ENC as widespread showers bring lower clouds and vis to the area. More benign weather and VFR conditions are then expected by Tue and into Wednesday as aforementioned low pulls away from ENC and high pressure builds overhead.
Through Sun night As of 250 PM Sat, Good boating conditions over area waters this afternoon as weak high pressure remains in place over the southeastern CONUS. Winds range from variable to westerly at around 10 kt with seas 2-3 feet with a 10-11 second swell. Conditions expected to slowly deteriorate, especially tomorrow afternoon, as coastal trough sharpens ahead of approaching upper low. Winds will gradually increase out of the east to east- northeast through Sunday in response, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt likely after sunset.
Given good model support and increasing confidence, issued SCA for offshore waters south of Oregon Inlet starting tomorrow night and extending through Tuesday. Additional zones will likely need to be added overnight.
Sunday night through Wednesday As of 230 AM Sat,
Key Messages:
- Small craft advisories becoming increasingly likely across our waters Sun night into Monday as low pressure impacts the area.
High pressure to the north and east pulls away from ENC through the day on Sunday bringing widespread 5-15 kt NE'rly winds and 2-4 ft seas to the area through Sun afternoon. By Sun evening and overnight, a surface low develops off the Southeast Coast tightening the pressure gradient and turning winds to a more E'rly direction at 15-25 kts with gusts up around 20-30 kts. With increasing winds, seas will also build overnight Sun to 3-5 ft and then 4-6 ft along our coastal waters once again bringing a return to SCA conditions to our waters. In addition to this, widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is also expected to begin by Sun night. Low then tracks NE'wards Mon into Tue morning keeping winds and seas elevated, but turning them to a N to NW direction with strong SCA to near gale force conditions currently forecast. High pressure then begins to build in from the west Tue pushing aforementioned low further out to sea resulting in easing winds and seas Tue evening into Wed as high pressure builds overhead.
Nc, frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am EDT Sunday for ncz029-044-079- 090-091. Marine, small craft advisory from 7 pm Sunday to 7 am EDT Wednesday for amz152-154-156-158.
