KEY MESSAGE 1, A few areas of fog have begun to form on nighttime visible satellite imagery this morning along highway 17 and in some locations across the Outer Banks. A swath of 1"+ of rainfall was observed yesterday generally west of hwy 17 in Martin, Pitt, and Greene counties. Ridging is building into the region, and we could see a period of light to calm winds with generally clear skies this morning. While the coastal plain has been in a drought, the recent rainfall could moisten our low levels enough for some patchy fog to form if winds go calm, which has already occurred in some locations. This fog will generally be fleeting and transitory in nature, but its worth paying attention to as we get closer to sunrise to see how long it may stick around.
KEY MESSAGE 2, High pres shifts offshore early next week, while another shortwave swings ewrd acrs the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region. This will drag a cold front into the Southeast, but as is typical this time of year, the front gets hung up inland from the coast. Returning rich low level moisture in tandem with the inland front and sea breeze will act to kick off showers and storms Monday afternoon, mainly inland zones along and west of the sea breeze. Hot and humid conditions return as well, though heat indices should remain below the 105 degree threshold attm. The daily shower/storm chances remain through mid week with no higher than chc/sct mention (30-50%). Little shear in place so any storms should remain sub severe. Temps will be slightly above climo. Breeziest day looks to be Monday with aforementioned front to the west and tightened thermal gradient.
07z Saturday through Wednesday Mainly VFR conditions through the rest of this morning as ridging brings a period of light to calm winds inland, which will be paired with generally clear skies. With the recent rainfall today, we could have some low level moisture present for patchy fog to form after 6Z. Best chances of this are for Martin, Pitt, and Lenoir, and Duplin counties where 1"+ has fallen today. Light winds below 10 kt will cont this afternoon with high pressure in the vicinity.
Outlook (Sun through Wed): Overnight fog and stratus threat possible each morning. Weekend will be dry with high pres and predominant VFR expected. Next rain chances will be on Monday afternoon evening in form of typical diurnal thundershowers. The daily shower/storm threat will cont through mid week.
All Marine hazard products have expired at this time.
Winds will turn nwrly then nerly this morning behind the departing low. For this weekend, light winds and low seas bring pleasant boating conditions with high pres in vicinity.
Outlook (Sun through Wed): On Mon, s to swrly gradient inc due to front approaching from the west and tightening of the thermal gradient. This will kick up nearshore winds to 25+ kt with SCA's likely needed for much of the marine domain including inland sounds and rivers. By Tue winds and seas return to below SCA levels, with just a typical uptick in late afternoon, early evening winds due to daily weak thermal gradient.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
