Key MESSAGE 1, The strong to severe thunderstorms have pushed offshore and the threat has ended for ENC. The cold front is currently pushing through the area with scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm through the evening, then will see clearing skies overnight as a drier airmass builds into the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2, With the return SWerly flow, hot and humid conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices, though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week. Brief break from the heat expected on Wed behind the fropa, when afternoon highs only in the low 80s OBX zones to upper 80s inland with lowered RH's as well. Heating back up Thu into the weekend. Typical summertime diurnal convective chances return Sat into early next week. Have added CLIMATE section below to advertise Record High temps for FRI and this weekend when heat increases again in the Serly summertime pattern. Heat headlines may be needed SAT.
00z Wednesday through Sunday A cold front is currently pushing across rtes with scattered showers and potentially an isolated thunderstorm chances continuing through the next few hours. The remaining showers may bring occasional sub-VFR conditions this evening, but will see clearing skies overnight with pred VFR conditions expected. The probs for stratus or fog are less than 10 percent in REFS and HREF guidance, however winds will become light inland with skies clearing and cannot rule out shallow ground fog given the precip this afternoon and evening bringing wet soils. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate after sunrise with VFR conditions prevailing Wednesday with sct afternoon cu. Winds will be light N to NE shifting to E to SE in the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland.
Outlook (Wed night through Sat): Pred VFR conditions expected. Mostly dry through Thu with high press over the area. Next precip chance on Fri night into Sat with another system approaching.
The cold front is pushing across the waters early this evening. Sw winds around 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt continues ahead of the front while winds are becoming NW to N behind the front and diminishing to 10-15 kt. The post frontal Nly surge around 15-20 kt will develop late this evening, then diminish late tonight. Seas are around 3-6 ft across the northern waters and 6-8 ft across the central and southern waters will slowly subside late this evening and overnight. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue this evening, then push east of the waters after midnight, however the threat for severe storms is very low. Have cancelled the SCA for the sounds and rivers but they continue over the nearshore coastal waters until late tonight.
Outlook (Wed through Sat): Moderate N-NE winds Wed, grad veering becoming light Wed night into Thu. S-SW winds return Thu night into Fri though looks to remain below SCA conditions. Sw winds increase to 10-20 kt Sat.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 5 am EDT Wednesday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Wednesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until midnight EDT tonight for amz156-158.
