Key MESSAGE 1, Despite high pressure overhead, combination of steady train of cirri aloft and stubborn north to northeasterly winds is likely inhibiting more widespread frost formation. Near-term guidance suggests there will still be a brief window for calm winds and therefore some frost formation pre-dawn, but coverage will likely be more limited to well sheltered areas. Frost Advisory has been retained for now, but trends will continue to be monitored for a potential early cancellation.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The next cold front to impact ENC is slated for late Friday through Friday night. Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to quickly rebound back above normal, especially tomorrow and Friday. Increased moisture advection along the southward- advancing frontal zone looks to support the next appreciable chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Instability continues to look meager, though, and the severe thunderstorm risk appears to be very low (less than 2%). Overall moisture does not look to be supportive of heavy rainfall, with average amounts a tenth of an inch or less save higher amounts in thunderstorms. Behind this front, another surge of northerly winds is expected, along with cooler, below normal temperatures returning.
06z Wednesday through Sunday VFR conditions are present early this morning, and are expected to continue through the next 24-36 hours. High pressure to the NE will slowly shift offshore today, which will eventually allow for light return flow to develop tonight. Outside of periods of mid and high clouds, the only low level clouds expected will come this afternoon and evening at around 4000-6000 ft but will likely remain scattered in nature. Lower level clouds may skirt the coast and Outer Banks as moisture increases tonight, but even there VFR conditions are expected to persist.
Outlook: The next cold front is forecast to reach ENC late Friday, pushing offshore by Saturday morning. Similar to this recent front, there will be a risk of SCT SHRA, isolated TSRA, and a notable northerly wind shift. Once again it looks like there will be a risk of 20-35kt wind gusts behind the front. Sub VFR conditions may develop as well, especially where SHRA develop.
High pressure building over area waters this morning will slide offshore later in the day. Sca conditions still holding on across central waters with gusts just above 25 kt and seas hovering around 6-7 feet. Conditions have improved across all other offshore waters and SCA headlines here have been dropped. Given the stubbornness of seas and winds over the central waters, opted to extend SCAs here into mid-morning. Benign boating conditions then expected for the rest of the day.
Outlook: Much improved boating conditions extend into Thursday with high pressure in control. The next round of impactful winds and seas is expected Friday into Saturday as the next cold front moves through. Once again, a period of northerly post- frontal gales will be possible. Seas will likely remain elevated into at least Sunday.
Nc, frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for ncz029-044>046- 079>081-090>092-193-198. Marine, small craft advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for amz152- 154.
