Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure will continue to build across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas tonight into Tuesday with a cooler/drier NE-E flow over the area bringing seasonable and comfortable temps for early September, with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints generally in the 60s. Temps will begin to warm mid to late week as the high shifts offshore allowing southerly flow to re-develop ahead of the next front and high temps climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoint temps into the low to mid 70s late in the week. Mostly dry weather will prevail through mid week as upper ridging build in from the west and a drier airmass in place, however a few shower will linger across the offshore coastal waters through tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The upper ridge begins to break down for the latter half of the week as a shortwave and attendant cold front push across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states. Guidance continues to show the front pushing into ENC on Friday and stalling along the coast through the weekend bringing unsettled weather across the region.
18z Monday through Saturday VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region bringing a drier airmass. Diurnal Cu this afternoon will dissipate with loss of heating this evening. Nw winds will continue to gust to around 15-20 kt this afternoon, becoming light tonight. Inland areas are expected to decouple bringing good radiational cooling conditions overnight, but with a dry airmass in place fog development is unlikely but still cannot completely rule out patchy shallow ground fog at some inland terminals, however it will likely have very limited impact to operations. Vfr conditions continue Tuesday with sct diurnal Cu and lighter winds throughout the day.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).
Outlook (Tue night through Sat): High pressure will build in from the north through mid week, with pred VFR conditions expected. A front is expected to drop into the region Friday and Saturday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms with periods of sub-VFR conditions possible.
Ne winds around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt continue across the waters this afternoon, strongest across Onslow Bay, while the seas have build to 4-6 ft. Winds are peaking at this time and will gradually diminish overnight and Tuesday. Seas may build a foot or two into the evening, then will subside overnight. Made minor adjustments to shorten the end time of the current SCA's but some zones may be able to drop even earlier.
Outlook (Tue night through Sat): Winds and seas will continue to ease Tue night into Wed as high pressure builds in. Sw winds 5-15 kt return Wed night and 10-20 kt Thu with seas building 2-4 ft as a front approaches the area. The front is forecast to move into the region Friday and stall across the waters over the weekend bringing lighter winds and seas but greater chances of unsettled weather.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 10 pm EDT this evening for amz135- 137-150. Small craft advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 6 am EDT Tuesday for amz156-158.
