A cold front will move through the area tonight. This front will be followed up by a reinforcing cold front late Thursday. High pressure then builds in over the weekend. High pressure shifts offshore early next week.
Through today As of 230 AM Wednesday,
Key Messages
- One more day of well above normal temperatures today
- Turning colder tonight
- Cold and dry conditions expected over Thanksgiving
A warm front will continue to lift quickly north early this morning, pushing well north of the area by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front (currently moving through the Ohio Valley), will be approaching the area by early this evening. Despite widespread cloudcover, continued southerly flow and building low-level thicknesses will support one more day of above to well above normal highs. Where breaks in the clouds occur, highs could near 80 degrees for some inland locations. For Crystal Coast beaches, warm air advecting over the cooler shelf waters may lead to a brief period of patchy, dense fog this morning before stronger southerly winds develop. Those cooler shelf waters may also temper highs in that area some as well. Still above normal, but not as warm as further inland.
During the daytime hours today, it still looks like an overall lack of appreciable forcing should limit the risk of deep convection, and severe weather is not anticipated. It may even be tough to get much in the way of showers to develop. The forecast will continue to reflect a chance of showers and thunderstorms, but it appears that rainfall amounts will be limited.
The above-mentionedcold front will move through tonight (10pm-1am timeframe), and will usher in much drier and colder air. Any shower or thunderstorm risk will quickly end from west to east in the wake of the front.
Tonight through Friday night As of 230 AM Wednesday,
A dry, cold airmass will settle into the Carolinas over the Thanksgiving holiday. Highs are expected to top out in the 40s and 50s Thursday and Friday, which is a solid 10-20 degrees below normal for late November. Overnight lows are expected to dip into the 20s and 30s. The coldest period of this airmass is expected to be Friday and Friday night. Of note, with high pressure overhead Friday night, excellent radiational cooling conditions may allow some inland areas of the coastal plain to fall into the upper teens.
Please see the Fire Weather section below for additional information on the dry and breezy conditions expected on Friday.
Saturday through Tuesday As of 230 AM Wednesday,
Key Messages
- Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall next week
The cold airmass from Thanksgiving is expected to begin to moderate over the weekend as southerly return flow develops. This will occur in advance of a positively-tilted upper trough that is forecast to develop from the Southwest U.S. Into the Central U.S. Within this regime, medium range guidance shows some significant differences regarding individual shortwaves that are forecast to traverse the Southeast U.S. It's a pattern worth keeping an eye on as there is a decent signal for coastal low development, especially early to mid next week. This signal shows up in both deterministic and machine learning guidance. This pattern typically carries a higher level of uncertainty, though, as guidance often struggles with the evolution of shortwaves as they eject out of the base of the trough.
At face value, the latest signal in deterministic and machine learning guidance suggests an increased risk of meaningful rainfall, and the forecast will reflect this potential.
Temperatures are expected to moderate by Sunday, but may then get pulled back down if more persistent northeasterly flow redevelops next week.
08z Wednesday through Sunday As of 1220 AM Wednesday,
Key Messages
- Periods of sub-VFR conditions tonight and Wednesday with increasing moisture and showers ahead of a cold front.
- LLWS possible late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Moist southerly flow will continue ahead of a cold front through the TAF period. Precip chances increase overnight and Wednesday bringing the potential for sub-VFR conditions, especially in heavier showers and thunderstorms. Sub-VFR conditions have already begun for areas along the coast and areas south of hwy 70 , progressing north through the night. Conditions are also favorable for sea fog development tonight and Wednesday morning that could impact terminals along the immediate coast but will not impact the TAF sites. Also, a strengthening low level jet overnight will bring the potential for LLWS concerns late tonight into Wednesday morning, mainly 9-13z. S to SW winds will gust to around 20 kt this afternoon and to around 25 kt late Wednesday morning and afternoon. Weakening cold front crosses WED afternoon bringing SChc of some showers and lower CIGs in a SW- NE band moving from W to E. Cigs could reach MVFR levels ahead of this approaching front. Terminals along the immediate coast should be spared from subVFR CIGs with the showers waning and clouds continuing to lift in the late afternoon/early evening.
Outlook: A reinforcing cold front will push across rtes Wednesday night bringing clearing skies and pred VFR conditions that will continue through the remainder of the week as high pressure builds across the area. The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip chances increasing on Sunday.
As of 230 AM Wednesday,
Key Messages
- Short duration of dense fog this morning
- Gale Warning now in effect from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras
- Elevated winds and seas to last into tonight, and then redevelop Thursday night into Friday
A warm front will continue to lift quickly north through area waters early this morning. Along and ahead of this feature, a period of 15- 25kt winds is expected. Just behind the front, the pressure gradient will relax, leading to a few hours of lighter winds. During the period of lighter winds, warm air advecting over the cooler shelf waters may lead to a brief period of dense fog, with visibilities less than 1SM. The best chance appears to be in/around the Crystal Coast and inland along the Neuse River.
Eventually, the gradient is expected to quickly restrengthen as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the front, a moderate gradient plus shallow to modest mixing should support a period of 15- 25kt southwesterly winds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters where 25kt wind gusts are the most likely. Over the warmest coastal waters (Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras), frequent gusts of 35-40kt are expected this afternoon and evening, and the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for that area. South of Lookout, and north of Hatteras, cooler shelf waters should limit the occurrence and duration of 35kt+ gusts. Therefore, I opted to cancel the Gale Watch and just go with a strongly worded Small Craft Advisory.
A cold front will cross area waters tonight, putting an end to the stronger southerly flow. Despite enhanced mixing behind the front, winds aloft are not expected to be as strong, which should limit the risk of 25kt+ winds. Because of this, the current marine headlines will only address the southerly, pre- frontal winds.
Seas of 4-6ft this morning are expected to build to 5-8ft through the day and into this evening, then gradually lay down to 3-5ft by late tonight.
Outlook: A reinforcing shot of cold air and enhanced mixing will likely lead to another risk of 25kt winds across much of the ENC waters Thursday night into Friday. Marine headlines are likely to be issued at a later time for this surge of northwesterly winds. High pressure then builds in over the weekend, leading to lighter winds (5-15kt) and lower seas (2-3ft).
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from noon today to 11 pm EST this evening for amz135. Dense fog advisory until 5 am EST early this morning for amz137. Small craft advisory until 4 am EST Thursday for amz152-158. Small craft advisory until noon EST today for amz154-156. Gale warning from noon today to 10 pm EST this evening for amz154-156.
