Key MESSAGE 1, Any leftover fog this morning has since burned off and we are looking at a rather pleasant fall day today across ENC under light winds and partly cloudy skies.
Prev Disc, As a weak upper level trough exits the eastern seaboard today, it will be replaced by an upper level ridge with high pressure and southerly flow at the surface. Center of the SFC slides off the coast near the VA/NC border this afternoon. This will keep conditions dry but we will see a return of warmer temperatures and higher humidities each day, culminating with some very warm temperatures by the end of the week.
For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees, and forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s for much of ENC, with some 90s possible inland THU, likely low 90s MaxTs FRI. Next iteration of AFD will include CLIMATE section for FRI's record highs. Persistent southerly flow and increasing low- level moisture should help to keep overnight lows higher as well, and well above the normal lows of around 60.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Precipitation chances return for the weekend as Gulf moisture opens up and a cold front drapes across the southern Appalachians and pushes southeastward slowly on Saturday. This will squeeze moisture into eastern NC elevating rain chances for the weekend. While thunderstorms will be possible, the threat for severe weather is low at this time.
The front loses steam as it approaches the coast, potentially briefly stalling over Coastal Carolinas, ahead of a second reinforcing front spurred from the Great Lakes by a stronger trough aloft.
For now, ensemble guidance is showing about a 30-50% chance of exceeding 1" of rain with this system. Any rain will be helpful, especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is currently in moderate to extreme drought.
13z Wednesday through Sunday Cloud cover continues to linger along the cool side of a stubborn front analyzed just the Carolina coastline this morning, with background wind fields light but generally SEerly south of the boundary but east to northeasterly flow to its north. Modest uptick in low- level moisture and decoupled lower levels has led to some fog development this morning, mostly MVFR VIS but some bounces down to IFR or lower when the shallow fog lines up with the sensor just right. This will burn off quickly after sunrise, but have included a 1hr TEMPO group. Vfr prevails through WED with diurnal CU field and winds becoming SE through the day as high pressure slides offshore aiding the seabreeze circulation through. Another round of fog potential tonight, with winds going calm after being onshore adding more moisture, and mostly clear skies expect IFR VIS impairments early morning THU.
Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG, a low-impact aviation period is expected through the end of the work week. Precipitation chances increase for the weekend as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday with the potential for more extended periods of sub-VFR conditions.
Buoys across the area showing 2 ft seas prevailing across all waters with 9-10s periods common. Light easterly winds at around 5 kts gusting to 10 kts in most locations. In the wake of an exiting low pressure system, a 5-10kt easterly flow is expected to continue across all waters. Of note, some funneling through the Albemarle Sound may allow a period of 10-15kt winds there. East to southeast flow persists into Wednesday, but will remain light. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-3ft will be common through Wednesday.
Outlook: Good boating conditions are expected through at least Friday. By the weekend, a front will be approaching the area from the NW, and this is expected to lead to a modest increase in south to southwest winds, 10-15G20KT FRI afternoon. Increasing moisture plus weak instability may eventually lead to a risk of thunderstorms as well, especially on Sunday. At this time conditions look to remain below small craft advisory levels through the weekend, becoming increasingly more likely early next week behind a stronger reinforcing cold front on MON.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
