Key MESSAGE 1, Stalled front remains to the south of ENC this afternoon with ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity developing along it across the coastal waters. Seabreeze is currently moving inland this afternoon as well and have kept the SChc PoPs in the forecast along the NE'rn zones where best convergence is located. While the threat for a pop up shower or storm is low it is non-zero. While the front has remained to the south today, flow has begun to shift and become more onshore with SE'rly breeze noted across ENC this afternoon allowing for increased moisture to begin to advect into the area from S-N. Highs have gotten into the 80s to near 90 in places as well, resulting in a slightly more humid day today as compared to yesterday. The aforementioned front is forecast to begin to lift north later this evening as a wave of low pressure develops in the SE and rides NE'wards along the front resulting in increasing chances for precip lifting northwards tonight across ENC. Greatest chances to see shower and thunderstorm activity would be east of Hwy 17 and along the OBX. With cloudcover forecast to overspread ENC tonight, lows get into the low 70s. Key MESSAGE 2, The aforementioned low pressure system is forecast to lift NE'wards across the area along the stalled front in the early morning hours THU, pushing the boundary north toward, and perhaps over, the ENC coast, providing a better focal point for greater coverage of showers and storms ahead of a second front which will cross the area by Sat. Out of all the days, Thurs looks to have the least amount of activity with showers and thunderstorms being more isolated to widely scattered in nature, though this will still be an increase in precip chances as compared to previous days with PoPs generally around 30-50% through much of the day Thurs. Activity will likely be ongoing along the OBX and far eastern zones Thurs morning and then push inland as the day goes on. Biggest question marks for tomorrow will be how focused activity will be and how much instability can build through the day. Pwats do creep back north of 1.75" and likely get close to 2" as we approach the evening hours Thurs, but cloud cover may cap MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg max and with little to no wind shear in place, any shower or tstm that does develop is not anticipated to be very organized. The aforementioned front remains around the area Thurs night into Fri promoting even greater chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as moisture and instability continues to advect into the region.
With enough instability in place, and subtly increasing amounts of shear as trough aloft over Canada digs toward the Great Lakes Fri, a few isolated stronger storms aren't completely out of the question. In addition to this, any shower or thunderstorm that develops will be an efficient rainmaker, potentially bringing torrential rainfall and a risk for flash flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas. As such, SPC has a Marginal Risk (lvl 1 5) of severe tstorms and wpc has a slight risk (lvl 2 ) of excessive rainfall for Fri while the FA is warm sectored with the front that has been offshore then being stalled along or near the AppMts. Rain continues into the weekend when a front pushed by the digging trough from the Great Lakes will cross the FA on Sat. Temps through the weekend remain seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Behind the departing cold front, upper level and surface high pressure builds back over the area Sun into early next week. This will bring a return to more climatological precip chances along the seabreeze as well as rising temperatures, low to mid 90s/mid 70s splits and MaxAppTs in excess of 100deg from TUES onward next week.
18z Wednesday through Monday # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #
VFR flight cats persist across ENC this afternoon with just some diurnal Cu and steady E to SE'rly breeze over the area. Weak seabreeze will push inland today allowing for partly cloudy skies to clear out briefly by this evening. Continued VFR flight cats are forecast into tonight to start out. However as we get further into the overnight hours, stalled front to our south gradually lifts N'wards toward the coast as weak low pressure travels Nward from GA. In the early morning hours, this wave will be working through the FA over coastal zones, increasing rain chances 06z onwards THU from Hwy 17 east. This could bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions of the OBX and eastern most TAF sites. Have kept inherited VCSH mention and PROB30 groups for TSRA for OAJ and EWN in this timeframe. With in this activity brief periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible. Does look like we get a brief break during the late morning to early afternoon hours across the inland areas with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along the OBX terminals.
Outlook: Front continues to track Nward and stall around the area Thurs with the front remaining around the area on Fri. Shower and thunderstorm activity may be more widely scattered in nature on Thursday given the weak frontal boundary. But as we get into Friday, a stronger front will approach from the west bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms on both Fri and Sat. Some of which could be severe in nature Fri afternoon and evening. This will bring elevated chances at sub- VFR conditions. High pressure builds in from the west on Sun and beyond resulting in more benign flying conditions.
Light SE'rly winds at 5-15 kts are noted across all our waters this afternoon with 2-4 ft seas noted across our coastal waters. Winds will veer tonight and become more S-SW'rly but remains at 5-15 knots while seas across the coastal waters remain around 2-4 ft as well. The most significant change will be the increase in shower and thunderstorm chances as a wave of low pressure lifts NE'wards dragging a stalled frontal boundary currently to our south N'wards across our waters tonight into Thurs morning. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible in the strongest storms. Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Thursday. Sw'rly winds do increase some Thurs afternoon and evening to 10-20 kts with a few gusts around 25 kts forecast, primarily along the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. However, both HREF, and NBM probs for frequent wind gusts above 25 kts remain at or below 20%, across our central and outer waters. So while we can't rule out gusts to or near 25 kts Thurs afternoon into Thurs night gusts should be infrequent enough to preclude any marine headlines across our coastal waters.
Outlook: Cold front approaches from the west and acts to weaken the pressure gradient as it nears the area Fri into the weekend. This is forecast to allow for weakening winds back down to 5-15 kts. Seas maintain heights of about 2-4 ft through the extended period as well. Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances continue Fri into Sat with locally enhanced winds and seas possible within the strongest storms. As we get into Sun and early next week aforementioned front pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds in from the west allowing for more benign marine conditions and lower chances for precip.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
