Key MESSAGE 1, Quasi stationary high pres sprawling across the Mid- Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will result in cont northeasterly flow across the region today. The high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to additional minor coastal flooding impacts on the OBX.
For Hatteras Island, seas offshore are in the ~6 foot range, but the long period swells will continue to cause issues for vulnerable areas. For ocean-side: high tide is around 0900 AM EDT today. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe.
Minor coastal flooding of vulnerable locations will be likely well into this week despite the diminishing of winds, with "sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of coastal ENC around times of high tide, then slowly improve as the King Tides ease later in the week and into the weekend. Coastal flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle on Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Quasi stationary dry high pres cont to sprawl across the region. Weak coastal troughing offshore could bring a few showersto mainly OBX/Downeast today, but most areas remain rain-free, albeit with mo cloudy skies today. Late week into the weekend, hts/thicknesses build further, and temps climbing back to ~10 degrees above climo with highs upr 70s to near 80 inland to low 70s OBX. Low temps will warm above climo as well with readings in the mid 50s for most locales away from the immediate coast.
High pres ridge may begin to break down as early as Sunday, but recent runs from EC/AIFS cont to keep a stronger high in place. May have to wait until a stronger srn stream system sweeps across the Deep South and into the region later in the week to see next good chance for appreciable rain. For now, pops remain quite low for late Sun into Mon ~30% to account for the small shower chances.
06z Wednesday through Sunday A moistening northeast to east low-level flow atop a cool boundary layer is expected through early morning which is a favorable setup for low stratus and FG development. Guidance is mixed on whether stratus or FG will be the dominant source of sub-VFR conditions. Another tricky feature that makes for uncertainty in the LIFR fog/low stratus is an area of VFR strato cu that is advecting eastward off the Atlantic. These clouds would act to limit the LIFR/IFR later tonight into the morning Wed, and have trimmed back on ending time of LIFR early this morning. 4k ft stratus deck may linger for much of the day today. A few non-impactful showers or sprinkles are possible esp for coastal locales today, but shouldn't amount to much at all. Winds will cont light nerly today.
Outlook (Thu through Sun): Expect VFR conditions to continue during the daytime through at least Sun with quasi- stationary high pres over the region. Coastal sections could see ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic, as well as bouts of overnight fg and low stratus with winds quite calm the next several nights.
4-6 ft seas for the waters south of Oregon Inlet are expected to continue through Thur evening before swells finally subside for a time. Winds today will ramp up to 15-25 kt for the coastal waters s of Oregon Inlet as well.
Outlook (Thu through Sun): Winds/seas diminish by Thu evening, though respite may be rather short-lived, as building seas are possible once again later in the weekend into early next week.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 2 pm EDT Thursday for ncz195-196- 199-203>205. Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for amz152-154-156-158.
