Arctic high will build in tonight behind a strong cold front that pushed offshore earlier this morning, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season thus far to the area tonight. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another strong cold front then moves through Thursday night.
Tonight As of 630 PM Sunday,
Key Messages:
- Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory is in place for all OBX zones through late tonight.
- Dangerous cold expected Monday morning with wind chills in the 5- 15 degree range. A Cold Weather Advisory is in place from late this evening through tomorrow morning.
An area of low-mid level convergence and modest moisture has led to the development of some light wintry precipitation over, and just to the west of, the OBX this evening. Short-term guidance suggests this precip should be short-lived (ie. Through about 9pm or so). The forecast was updated to add in a mention of scattered flurries through then. Accumulations and impacts are not expected. Additionally, after the initial plunge behind the front, the fall of temperatures has slowed some. The forecast has also been updated to show a slower drop in temps over the next few hours, but with lows still bottoming out as cold as previously advertised.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Strong cold front has pushed offshore of ENC as of noon Sunday, with temperatures rapidly falling across the area. Temperatures now reported in the upper-30s to lower-40s after nearing 60 earlier this morning. Colder air will continue to filter in through today/tonight, with temperatures falling into the low-to-mid 30s by this evening before falling into the upper teens inland tonight (low-20s beaches). This will be the coldest air of the season thus far, with wind chills dropping into the 5-15 F range tonight. Given this, Cold Weather Advisory remains in place for all of the forecast area from late this evening into early tomorrow morning. Strong northwesterly winds are accompanying this arctic blast, with gusts 20-30 mph inland and gusts of 35-45 mph expected along the OBX. A Wind Advisory is in place for the Northern Outer Banks and Ocracoke/Hatteras Islands until late tonight.
Monday through Monday night As of 1 PM Sunday, Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps (highs in the 30s area-wide) expected Monday. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day tomorrow. Monday night may be the colder of the next two nights, especially for the coastal mainland areas due to clear skies and decoupled conditions. Lows will be near 20 (25-30 OBX). Winds will be light (unlike tonight), so conditions are currently expected to remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, however.
Tuesday through Sunday As of 1 PM Sunday,
Tuesday through Thursday, High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-30%) and Thursday night (50-70%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region.
Friday through Saturday, Cold front pushes east by week's end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system is forecast to be weaker than tomorrow's system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front.
00z Monday through Friday As of 630 PM Sunday,
Key Messages
- Gusty winds (20-35kt+) to continue for much of the night
- VFR conditions expected through Monday
Gusty, post-frontal winds are expected to continue through the evening and, for most areas, into the overnight hours. During this time, gusts of 20-25kt will be common at all ENC TAF sites, with higher gusts of 30-35kt+ across the Outer Banks. Winds should finally decrease to less than 10kt by Monday morning, and become less gusty. For the TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. East of the TAF sites (ie. Near the Outer Banks), low clouds and scattered flurries will remain possible for several hours. No snow accumulations, or reductions to VIS, are expected. On Monday, periods of low clouds may continue to impact the Outer Banks.
Outlook: VFR conditions persist through midweek before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system.
As of 630 PM Sunday,
Key Messages:
- Gale conditions through tonight for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 35-40 kt expected.
- SCA conditions expected to linger through tonight for sounds/rivers and into Monday afternoon/evening for the coastal waters
Marine observations over the past 1-2 hours have shown a notable decrease in winds, which appears to be due to a temporary weakness in the pressure gradient. Guidance suggests this weakness will strengthen over the next few hours, with winds building once again. The forecast in the very near term was updated to reflect the lower winds for most waters, but given the expected increase, no headline changes will be made. Should the decreased trend last longer, some headline changes may be needed.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Today/Tonight, Winds have flipped to northwesterly behind the passage of this morning's strong cold front, with winds generally noted as 20-30 kts and gusts ranging from 25-35 kts across area waters with this initial northwesterly surge. Gale conditions are already noted across the coastal waters, with the sounds and Alligator River expected to reach Gales later this evening with a secondary northwesterly surge. Winds will peak overnight tonight before beginning to taper off late tonight/Monday morning. Seas have quickly built to 5-7 ft and are expected to peak at 8-12 ft tonight.
Monday, Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions Monday morning. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night.
Tuesday through Thursday, Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft, with the potential for some 6-footers across the Gulf Stream Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday night into Friday, Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. With warm offshore waters, gale conditions possible over the Gulf Stream with strong southwesterly flow in place ahead of next cold front.
Nc, cold weather advisory until 10 am EST Monday for ncz029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Wind advisory until 6 am EST Monday for ncz203>205. Marine, gale warning until 2 am EST Monday for amz131-230-231. Gale warning until 4 am EST Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 7 am EST Monday for amz136-137. Gale warning until 6 am EST Monday for amz150-152-154-156-158.
