Key MESSAGE 1, This afternoon, a stalled front stretches southwest along the coast of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, the MCV and an associated surface low that brought all of the rain to ENC earlier today is moving off the coast of ENC. Perhaps a bit of subsidence in the wake of that feature, plus reduced forcing, appears to be the reason for an overall lack of convection at this time. The one exception is along the Crystal Coast where low-level convergence is being maximized along the stalled front, supporting ongoing areas of moderate to heavy rain and a few thunderstorms.
The Crystal Coast convection should persist through at least sunset, but may wane some with the loss of daytime heating. Later tonight, the next shortwave to ride along the stalled front will encroach on the area. Guidance suggests the increased forcing amid a very moist airmass should support a renewed uptick in convective coverage and intensity, and guidance now shows this lasting through much of the day Saturday. Ensemble guidance differ on the placement of the heaviest rain, but there is a pretty solid signal for another 1-3" for much of ENC through Saturday afternoon, with a reasonable worst case of another 4-8" where rainfall rates are the most persistent/intense. Given uncertainty in the placement of the heaviest rain, and given how saturated parts of the area are, and how sensitive soils may now be, the Flood Watch has been extended out through 8pm Saturday for the entire area. Within the watch area, there will continue to be a risk of minor/nuisance flooding, but with a continued risk of a few instances of flash flooding. Additionally, we've received some reports of trees coming down in the absence of much wind, and this is likely due to saturated soils, not strong winds. This may continue to be a risk, especially for areas that have seen the most rainfall over the past 24-36 hours.
Lastly, right along the front there may continue to be just enough overlap of shear and instability to support a few weakly rotating updrafts with a gusty wind and weak tornado potential. The risk of severe weather looks LOW, but isn't zero.
KEY MESSAGE 2, With Sunday and Monday trending drier with the lingering front finally getting carried offshore, focus then turns to another front approaching the eastern CONUS next mid- week. This boundary appears weaker and more progressive than our current boundary but will still provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Ahead of the boundary, strengthening southwesterly flow and building low-level thicknesses will bring a return of oppressive heat with at least a couple days of heat indices approaching or exceeding 105F possible.
19z Friday through Wednesday SHRA and TSRA will mainly be focused from KOAJ to KEWN over the next few hours. Then, after 00z this evening, the SHRA and TSRA risk should begin to expand back north again to include all TAF sites. During this time, LIFR/IFR VIS will be possible where RA is the heaviest. Additionally, periods of LIFR/IFR CIGs will remain possible due to widespread low stratus. Outlook (Friday night through Tuesday): Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA and low CIGs will continue to plague ENC through tomorrow as a frontal boundary remains stalled over the area. The front is forecast to finally shift south of ENC from north to south on Sat with gradually improving aviation conditions by Sunday.
Outlook (Saturday night through Wednesday): A cold front is forecast to finally shift south of ENC from north to south Saturday night with gradually improving aviation conditions by Sunday.
Cold front is currently stalled over Onslow Bay this morning with regional observations showing winds at around 10 kt or less. Gradient will remain relaxed around the front as it moves little through today, perhaps lifting northward slightly later tonight. Winds and seas will remain safely below SCA through the period but multiple rounds of widespread rain and the occasional thunderstorm will continue to plague area waters into Saturday morning.
Outlook: A stalled front will finally shift offshore by Saturday night, with moderate northerly winds developing for all waters by Sunday. The risk of thunderstorms is expected to decrease on Sunday as well. A more typical summertime wind and sea pattern then returns next week.
Nc, flood watch through Saturday evening for ncz029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203. Marine, none.
