Key MESSAGE 1, Last day of above average precipitation chances as a stalled upper trough that had brought multiple days of heavy rain and thunderstorm activity to the area finally shifts north and gets absorbed by an incoming upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes region. At the same time, mid level shortwave energy shifts to the north and west as well. On top of this, for the rest of the afternoon, surface boundary to the north and west of the area continues to gradually dissipate while S'rly flow keeps PWATs around the 2-2.5" range today. Any leftover upper level forcing combined with the daily seabreeze should be enough to kick start additional rounds of isolated showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with heavy to torrential rainfall possible. While storm motions should be progressive, storms will be capable of dropping a quick 1-2", resulting in minor flooding concerns. After we lose daytime heating, rain chances go down drastically. Highs today have gotten into the mid 80s with lows tonight forecast to be in the 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A more zonal pattern aloft sets up as upper troughs and mid level shortwaves generally remain to the north of the Carolinas. This will result in a return to more avg to below avg rain chances across ENC from Thur on into next week as main forcing will be from the daily seabreeze. While chances will certainly be lower ample instability will build across the region given the partly cloudy skies and moist environment so wouldn't be shocked at a daily 20-30% chance of shower or thunderstorm activity from Thurs onwards along he inland moving seabreeze each afternoon. Given the lower precip chances the main story from Thurs onwards will be the return of the heat with highs getting into the upper 80s to low 90s each day into next week. Combined with dewpoints generally in the 70s each day will bring heat indices between 95-105F each day. While below heat headline criteria this will make it feel uncomfortably hot over the next few days. Not much relief overnight as lows get into the 70s each night.
00z Thursday through Monday A few remaining seabreeze SHRA and TSRA near KISO and KPGV should move away and weaken over the next 1-2 hours. In the wake of that activity, generally clear skies should prevail for the rest of the evening and potentially much of the night. However, early Thursday morning, guidance suggests areas of sub-VFR level stratus may develop. It's not clear yet how widespread these clouds will be, but we'll keep a SCT layer in the TAFs to reflect the potential. Where skies remain clear or mostly clear, some reductions to VIS may occur due to BR/MIFG.
On Thursday, guidance has trended a bit more active with the afternoon seabreeze TSRA potential, and a PROB30 has been added for KISO and KPGV where confidence in TSRA impacts is the highest. The environment appears supportive of 40kt+ gusts with the strongest TSRA.
Of note, AMD NOT SKED was appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing communications issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted.
Outlook (Thursday night through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning.
Outside of ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, benign boating conditions are noted with S'rly winds at 10-15 kts across all waters and 2-4 ft seas across the coastal waters. Conditions wont change much over the next few days as a Bermuda high nudges in from the east resulting in lower precip chances across our waters from Thurs into early next week and steady S-SW'rly winds at 5-15 kts with 2-4 ft seas. Will note there is a low end chance for a thermal trough to set up starting Fri and going through the weekend as inland areas heat up. This could result in brief periods of near SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times each afternoon and evening.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199. Marine, none.
