Key MESSAGE 1, A typical summer time pattern will be in place through much the week with Bermuda High pressure centered off the Southeast coast and a thermal trough across the piedmont. Near zonal flow aloft with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area will result climo precip chances for the next several days with best chances through peak heating and seabreeze related for the most part but will also depend on timing and exact location of individual shortwave troughs. The severe threat appears minimal for the next few days with limited shear, though somewhat better shear develops toward the middle of the week.
Hot temperatures continue through the week as well with highs in the lower 90s inland into Monday, then warming in to the mid 90s Tue/Wed and beyond. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat Risk increase to around 50-80% Monday through Thursday with highest probs on Tuesday and Wednesday.
07z Sunday through Thursday AMD NOT SKED continues to be appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing FAA comms issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. Nkt is the closest ASOS. Ewn is able to be dialed into to receive METARs.
Pred VFR across rtes early this morning, though seeing shallow fog bringing periods of IFR/LIFR conditions to a couple of terminals across far southern rtes, with OAJ the most impacted. Href probs for IFR or less conditions are around 40-60% for the Duplin/Onlsow Co areas but 20% or less elsewhere, so think most other areas will remain VFR. The fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise. Could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm develop along the sea breeze today but most guidance keeps probs around 20 percent or less. Href probs for fog/stratus development is a bit lower tonight at less than 25%.
Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into mid week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible each day that could bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions.
A typical summertime pattern will prevail with S-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft.
Scattered shower and thunderstorms across the offshore waters this morning associated with a trough rotating around the Bermuda High will pull away from the waters this afternoon. A series of shortwave troughs will then push across the coastal waters through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent bring nocturnal driven over the Gulf Stream waters.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
