Key message 1, An elevated heat risk will be the name of the game over the next few days low level flow generally SW to W over the next several days. As a result, some weak WAA will allow low level thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based off the offices climatological study this is forecast to result in highs in the low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast through much of the week before a front impacts the region resulting in cooler temperatures late week into the weekend.
Heat indices are expected to peak around 100-110 each afternoon through Thurs, and potentially lingering into Fri with daily heat headlines probable for much of the area. For today, have expanded the Heat Advisory to include the Inner Banks, which leaves NW counties the the OBX out as they are expected to remain just below criteria. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated.
key message 2, A typical summer time pattern will remain in place through much the week with a series of shortwaves/MCS's moving through WNW flow aloft bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms across the region. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, could see daily seabreeze related storms developing each afternoon, however best forcing will occur as individual shortwaves move across the region, which at this time appears to be late afternoon and evening hours for the next couple of days and SPC has portions of the FA in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for both Day 1 and Day 2 as these systems push across the area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat with these storms. A stronger northern stream shortwave is progged to push across the Mid-Atlantic Friday with the attendant cold front pushing into the area bringing the best forcing and chances for widespread showers and storms across the area. High pressure build into the area over the weekend bringing bringing a drier airmass and minimal chances for storms.
07z Tuesday through Saturday AMD NOT SKED has been added to EWN again. Obs briefly came back yesterday but have disappeared again overnight. Have no knowledge at this time of cause of the issue. Tafs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. Nkt is the closest ASOS. Ewn is able to be dialed into to receive latest observations. Fog and low stratus concerns are low tonight with winds expected to remain elevated enough. However, locations that experienced enhanced rainfall today could be at risk of seeing some low stratus or very shallow, non-impactful ground fog with higher near surface moisture. Oaj briefly reported IFR vsybs and think this TAF site will have the best chance to sub-VFR conditions this morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening as a convective system pushes across the Mid-Atlantic. Some storms could produce strong wind gusts.
Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are expected mid to late week, but there will be scattered convection possible each afternoon and evening hours that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. A cold front is progged to push through the area late Friday/Friday night that will bring the best chances for prolonged sub-VFR conditions. In addition, there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning with best chances in areas that saw significant rainfall the previous afternoon/evening.
A typical summertime pattern across the waters with S-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well.
A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven over the Gulf Stream waters. A cold front is progged to push across the waters late Friday/Friday night with N to NE winds developing over the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.
Nc, heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz045>047-080-081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199. Marine, none.
