Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

300 pm EDT Sat apr 13 2024

Synopsis

Tonight high pressure will move nearly overhead and then shift offshore Sunday. On Monday a cold front will push south across the Mid- Atlantic and stall, eventually lifting back north as a warm front on Tuesday. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the Southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the area late next week.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 3 PM Sat, High pressure will build nearly overhead tonight which will lead to calmer conditions overnight. Good radiational cooling conditions with clear skies present as winds become light to calm. With today's dry airmass overhead, lows will be efficiently chilly, with mid 40s interior to low/mid 50s beaches under clr skies.

Short Term

Sunday As of 3 PM Sat, High pres edges offshore, with return flow bringing warming temps. Thicknesses/hts swing back to above climo, translating to highs in the 75-80 degree range inland, with upper 60s to near 70 beaches. These vals are running some 5 degrees above normal for mid April.

Long Term

Sunday night through Saturday As of 320 AM Sat, Some minor tweaks to the overall forecast but in general a warm but pleasant week looks to be on tap.

Sun through Wed, We start the period out with upper level WNW flow as an upper level trough to the northeast pulls further away with this WNW to NW flow persisting through Monday as general broad troughing off the East Coast deepens and upper level ridging begins to build across the Central CONUS. As this occurs, a weak mid level shortwave will be riding along this flow Sun evening while a second weak s/w tracks across the Mid-Atlantic Mon night. At the surface, ridging centered over the Southeast will slowly push E'wards while to the north low pressure will quickly track E'wards across New England on Sun with its associated cold front tracking SE'wards into the Mid-Atlantic Sun evening and on Monday. While dry air will keep precip out of the forecast initially, a tightening pressure gradient Sun evening between ridging to our south and the front to our north will promote a brief uptick in SW'rly flow Sun afternoon and evening with gusts up around 15-25 mph expected. With RH's also around the mid 20s to low 30s on Sun as well, expect another day of elevated fire danger Sun afternoon across our Coastal Plain. As we get into Mon, cold front finally makes its way towards the Carolinas and recent guidance suggests enough moisture may pool along and out ahead of the front for a few iso showers to develop primarily along our northern tier before this front stalls across ENC Mon night. Temps Sun and Mon remain rather warm with highs getting into the 80s inland and 70s along the coast and OBX while lows only get down into upper 50s to low 60s.

By Tues upper level ridging builds over the Eastern Seaboard while upper level troughing enters the Central CONUS. At the surface stalled frontal boundary lifts N'wards as a warm front Tuesday bringing a threat for some shower and thunderstorm activity as lift and moisture begin to gradually increase across ENC with the area likely remaining dry on Wed as high pressure ridging briefly makes a reappearance across the region. Temps continue to remain well above avg across ENC through mid week. Thurs into the end of next week, Evolution of the late week forecast becomes a bit murkier with respect to exact details, but the overall evolution hasn't changed much. Expect an upper level trough with associated shortwave to approach the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday and move through the region by Fri. At the surface this will bring a cold front across the area by the end of the work week bringing our next best threat for some precip to end the period. Temps continue to remain well above avg through Fri before cooling off behind the front.

Aviation

18z Saturday through Thursday Through Sunday As of 2 PM Sat, VFR SKC through the TAF pd. Gusty westerly winds around 25 kt this afternoon will quickly become light late afternoon and then calm after sunset. Winds back sswrly on Sun, though much lighter with gusts only 15-20kt during the peak afternoon mixing.

Sunday night through Wednesday As of 330 AM Sat, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

Marine

Through Sun As of 3 PM Sat, Gusty wrly winds around 25 kt will diminish quickly late afternoon through evening, and will therefore expire SCA at or before 4PM. Winds will become 10 kts or less overnight with seas 2-4 ft. Winds back sswrly on Sun with speeds of 10-20 kt. Some gusts approaching 25 kt late in the day but should remain below, so no SCA headlines during the day Sun.

Sunday night through Wednesday As of 330 AM Sat, Expecting benign boating conditions to start the period with high pressure ridging extending northwards across our waters. Expect our next chance at some small craft conditions to occur Sun evening as the gradient tightens between ridging to our south and a front to our north allowing winds to become SW'rly Sun evening and increase to 15-20 kts with gusts in excess of 25 kts while seas build to 4-5 ft Sun night. The gradient will relax some on Mon as the cold front approaches and ridging moves off to the east allowing SW'rly winds to decrease closer to 10-15 kts while seas lower to 3-4 ft. Overall expect 10-20 kt SW'rly winds across all water and 3-5 ft seas across our coastal waters from Tue into the end of the period.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, coastal flood advisory until 5 pm EDT this afternoon for ncz203-204. Marine, none.

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