Key MESSAGE 1, As of 9pm, a weakening MCS is currently moving off the coast of NC. The strongest part of this MCS is moving through the Crystal Coast with 30-40mph winds and frequent lightning. Behind this MCS, regional radar shows a MCV moving east through southern VA. While ENC has been worked over from the departing MCS, the risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may linger for several more hours until the VA MCV shifts offshore. Any convection overnight should remain sub- severe due to an unfavorable environment.
On Sunday yet another shortwave looks to impact the area ahead of an incoming backdoor cold front. Cams suggest a MCS moving into the region along the shortwave in the evening in addition to any sea breeze convection developing in the afternoon. With better upper level support and more favorable timing compared to todays MCS, this one has a shot at bringing some damaging winds as well. The back door cold front looks to move through overnight Sunday. Precip with the shortwave out ahead of it will likely stabilize up a bit, bringing a lower thunderstorm risk along the front. Spc has us in a marginal (1/5) risk of severe weather Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A WAA regime will persist through this weekend as high pressure becomes centered offshore. This will bring continued SSW winds and increasing low level thicknesses to ENC. Latest guidance continues to show low level thicknesses generally around 1410-1425m which support highs into the low to mid 90s each day. With temps in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s heat indices will likely peak around 95-103 today and Sunday. Will note, given cloudcover and precip chances both today and tomorrow it looks like we may remain lower than heat advisory criteria so currently not anticipating any heat headlines this weekend. Sunday will see another day of near heat advisory criteria AppTs, 100-105F thanks to the slower progression of the back door cold front. With lows only getting into the 70s each night this weekend there wont be much relief from the heat. If you have any extended plans outdoors this weekend make sure to stay properly hydrated and take proper precautions when outside.
KEY MESSAGE 3, No significant changes to the extended forecast as an omega block sets up across the Eastern CONUS with anomalous ridging persisting across the the midwest and eastern US next week. This will bring the potential for an extended period of dangerous heat to ENC starting around Thurs next week and continuing into the July 4th weekend. Nws probabilistic Heat Risk values of reaching major heat risk levels or higher are currently sitting at about 30-50% on Wed, 60-80% on Thurs, and 80-90% on Fri/Sat which is fairly notable given the higher end values this far out. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside later next week should continue to monitor the forecast trends as this potential heat wave would have impacts on the holiday weekend.
01z Sunday through Thursday TSRA are quickly shifting offshore this evening, leaving behind a lowered risk through the remainder of the night. The one caveat, though, is an upper level disturbance moving along the VA/NC border. Until this feature moves offshore, there will continue to be a low risk of TSRA. After a brief reprieve, another round of TSRA is expected Sunday into Sunday evening as yet another upper level disturbance moves through. Once again, there will be a risk of 30- 50kt wind gusts with any TSRA that develops on Sunday, as well as brief reductions in VIS to ifr/lifr.
Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Showers and storms could be ongoing in the evening, with periods of sub-VFR. The front will move through Sun night, with conditions improving as N-NE develops. Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible each morning.
As of 9pm, a thunderstorm complex is impacting much of the coastal waters, offshore waters, and the waters near the Crystal Coast. This activity is expected to steadily push east over the next few hours, and will be capable of 30-35kt winds and frequent, deadly lightning. A secondary thunderstorm risk may develop overnight as another upper level wave moves through the area.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Ongoing 15-20 kt SW'rly winds with gusts up to 25 kts are noted across the coastal waters between Cape Lookout and Oregon Inlet and across the Pamlico Sound which is where ongoing small craft advisories are currently noted. Elsewhere 10-15 kt SW winds with gusts up to 20 kts are noted. These winds are forecast to continue into tonight before easing as the area will be between mid level shortwaves and well out ahead of an approaching cold front. This should end the last of the SCA's across our waters by about 5AM Sun morning. Afterwards do expect winds to ease further on Sun, lowering to 5-15 kts Sun morning and then shifting to a NE direction from north to south behind the front Sun night. Seas during this timeframe generally remain around 3-5 ft outside of some Gulf stream waters where 4-6 ft seas aren't out of the question especially today with the elevated SW'rlys.
Once again will mention the potential for scattered showers and strong thunderstorms into tonight and once again on Sunday. Already have ongoing activity across the inland waters which should make its way to the coastal waters tonight before a brief receive Sun morning followed by yet another round of storms Sun afternoon. Any storm that develops would bring a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas.
Outlook (Sun night through Wed): Gulf stream showers and thunderstorms possible through Sun evening with the shortwave and back door cold front. Winds will eventually shift from the SW to the NE on Sun night and Mon from N to S behind the aforementioned front. Ne winds then persist behind the cold front Tue into midweek.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz135- 152. Small craft advisory until 5 am EDT Sunday for amz154-156.
