Key MESSAGE 1, Weak remnant front is dissipating early this morning as high pressure gradually builds in from the north and west. Low levels remain very saturated and local observations show a growing area of fog and low stratus developing over central and eastern NC. Coverage is likely to expand into dawn hours, and some locally dense fog is possible especially west of Highway 17 after 4-5 AM. A DFA may need to be considered for these counties later this AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Front will completely wash out later this morning, leaving weak high pressure in control and convective chances largely dictated by sea and sound breezes today. Aforementioned fog and low stratus will be slow to dissipate owing to weak mixing, which will probably hamper instability recovery. Still, guidance hints at MLCAPEs at around 1000-1500 J/kg by afternoon which should support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours. Activity is expected to quickly dissipate by sunset.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Shower and thunderstorm coverage wanes early this week as upper ridging builds into the region from the west. Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm through the period along sea and sound breezes although activity will likely be short-lived. The main story will be the building heat with highs expected to climb into the 90s early next week and peaking in the mid to upper 90s as we move into the middle of the week. Heat headlines may be needed as early as Wednesday with forecast heat indices climbing above 105, especially along the coast and inland counties along and south of US70.
06z Sunday through Thursday # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #
Front that has been stalled over area terminals for the past few days is dissipating this morning leaving area in a very moist airmass. With clearing skies and calm winds observations show a quick expansion of fog and low stratus over the past couple of hours. Vlifr conditions are possible across coastal plain terminals, but all sites appear likely to see at least a couple hours of IFR prior to sunrise. Fog will lift shortly after sunrise, but stratus may linger into late morning with weak mixing. Vfr returns by midday along with isolated to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon, with risk migrating northward into the evening.
Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west next week resulting in more benign flying conditions. Iso shower or storm cannot be ruled out along area sea and sound breezes.
A front stalled across the waters will continue dissipate today with light and variable winds mainly less than 10 kt and seas around 1-3 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist south of Cape Hatteras into this morning. Similar pattern expected Sun night into Monday, albeit with more isolated coverage of convection Mon AM.
Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west early this week allowing for more benign marine conditions and lower chances for precip. Although SCA conditions are not expected, with building heat inland thermal gradient winds out of the SW will return starting mid-week each afternoon and evening at 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt possible.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
