Key MESSAGE 1, An anomalously strong upper ridge will build over the Southeastern US through Wednesday. Strong south to southwesterly flow beneath the ridge will increase low-level thicknesses and support record to near-record temperatures today and Wednesday (see the Climate section below). Today, highs are forecast to reach the low/mid 80s inland and upper 60s/low 70s at the beaches. A few isolated light showers are possible this afternoon as a shortwave moves through aloft, but most of the area should remain dry. On Wednesday, inland zones are forecast to reach the upper 80s while the beaches will be in the low/mid 70s. It'll also be quite breezy as the gradient tightens between the ridge over the Southeast and the trough approaching from the west. Southwest winds will be sustained at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 15 to 25 mph.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A cold front will cross ENC on Thursday afternoon driven by an upper level shortwave. Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm into the low/mid 70s inland and low/mid 60s at the beaches. High PWATs (1-1.5"), frontal forcing, and enhanced upper level dynamics will support scattered to numerous showers along the front. Showers will occur within a high shear/low CAPE environment, so while a few thunderstorms with gusty winds are expected, the severe threat remains low. A notably cooler airmass will build in behind the front, dropping temperatures by about 20-30 degrees by Friday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Temperatures will rebound through the weekend, reaching the upper 70s inland and mid 60s at the beaches by Sunday. An impressive upper level trough will dig across the country late this weekend and into early next week, bringing chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm chances will peak with the passage of a strong cold front on Monday, which will bring a noticeable airmass change. High temperatures behind the front early next week will in the 40s and 50s.
06z Tuesday through Saturday VFR conditions across the terminals early this morning. Areas of fog may develop over the next few hours with light to calm winds and mostly clear skies. We do have some drier air with a very shallow inversion, so expecting the nature of fog to be more patchy and shallow, but x-over temps have been reached for most of the area. Href probs for IFR or lower are above 70%, so will continue fog and low stratus for KEWN and KOAJ, with tempo restrictions at KPGV and KISO. Fog and low stratus should lift by 15Z, leading to another day of light SW winds and VFR conditions. Areas of patchy sea fog may also continue.
Outlook, Sub-VFR may return Thursday with scattered to numerous showers, isolated storms and gusty winds. Pred VFR to return Fri into the weekend.
Sea Fog: With moistening srly light flow cont today into tonight, sea fog may return and become dense again, and will continue to monitor cams and obs for potential for additional DFA. Probabilities from ensemble guidance indicate a 60-80% chc of visibilities dropping below a quarter mile again this morning and through the day.
Outside of sea fog impacts, fairly benign boating conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday afternoon with southwest winds at 10-20 kt and 2-4 ft seas.
Outlook: Conditions wil deteriorate Wednesday afternoon/evening as the gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Ahead of the front Wednesday night/early Thursday, southwest winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Winds will veer to the northwest as the front passes Thursday afternoon and some Gale force gusts will be possible. Seas will build to 4-8 ft during this time as well. Conditions will improve behind the front Thursday night/Friday.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
