Key MESSAGE 1, A weak area of low pressure will develop along the boundary the stalled frontal zone through today somewhere between Cape Fear and Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout. This low will act to lift the front E of its center Nward and consolidate the front W of its center. This combo of cyclo- and frontogenesis, and ample moisture will continue to support periods of rain today, with a few storms over the immediate coastal locales where this location will be in warm sector. Precip to the E of the low's center will be more showery in nature, and have allowed NBM's PotThunder to remain in the slgt chc range. Instability will be lower today with OVC skies throughout peak heating, so rainfall rates may not get quite as high and heaviest rain confined to the immediate coast but mainly offshore today.
KEY MESSAGE 2, In the wake of the weekend front, a stiff NEerly breeze will develop after midnight MON night and peak through TUE morning. This will lead to building seas and elevated water levels. Astronomical tide levels will luckily be on the way down, but seas building to 7ft, though relatively choppy periodicity of 7 sec, may be enough to lead to further beach and dune erosion concerns across the areas with severely diminished dune structures. However, this risk appears to be decreasing some due to the strongest winds and highest seas shifting south of Hatteras Island. This trend continued to hold with 04OCT 00/06Z model suites. Strongest winds of 20-25 kt with higher gusts expected TUE morning. Winds remain out of the N-NE into late- week, but speeds diminish to 10-15kt late TUE and beyond.
12z Sunday through Thursday All TAF sites currently showing LIFR flight cats as well as most terminals across the Carolinas. Ifr flight cats are expected to hold on for most of the area, terminals along the immediate coast and OBX have the best chances for some slight improvement later this afternoon. A cold front is currently situated just off the Crystal Coast. Low pressure develops along the front and lifts NE on today, which will allow the front to push back toward the coast. Some uncertainty with just how far inland the front pushes but CIGs will likely lift to MVFR, and potentially VFR, to the south and east of the boundary. Mrh has the highest probs of seeing improving CIGs during the day, OAJ and EWN has the most uncertainty whether any improvement will occur, while PGV and ISO has the highest probabilities to remain IFR throughout the day. With the 12z TAF cycle, have kept all TAF sites IFR through early afternoon with MVFR possible this evening (included MRH, OAJ, and EWN in improvement to MVFR). Any improvement will not be long lived with CIGs lowering again overnight to IFR or lower until MON morning when the low departs to the NE and strong high pressure builds over ENC behind a reinforcing front, allowing for clearing conditions.
Outlook: Winds will become northeasterly behind the front, surge peaking TUE morning. Cigs improve as skies scatter out with the incoming high with VFR conditions then prevailing into the middle of next week.
The front is slowing down and have pushed S of the Crystal Coast, but may not get all the way through the southern waters before completely stalling. The front then lifts back north as a weak area of low pressure develops and then moves NWard along it. As the low moves offshore, it will drag the cold front back south through all waters tonight into Monday. The northerly surge behind that front will be stronger than yesterday's surge, with marine headlines likely needed for some waters. Guidance has trended down some with the winds during this time, but still appear supportive of a period of 20-30kt winds. The threat of gusts to gale- force continues on the downward trend, with Southern offshore waters outside of 30nm the most likely. Gusts outside of this area will remain in the 25-30kt range. Seas of 2-3ft early today eventually build to 4-7ft by Monday and Tuesday as the above- mentioned northerly surge moves through.
Outlook: Northeasterly flow of 10-15kt continues into the middle of next week, but should be lighter than Monday/Tuesday.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
