Key MESSAGE 1, Latest surface analysis shows a weak surface low over the SC Pee Dee region, gradually lifting along a stalled frontal boundary draped across the coastal plains of the Carolinas. Aloft, stout mid-level trough remains in place with a particularly strong shortwave pivoting around its base this afternoon.
After some surprisingly strong convection this morning, eastern NC has cleared out nicely with ample sunshine allowing temperatures to rebound back into the mid to upper 80s with dew points, especially along the coast, in the mid to upper 70s. 18z MHX RAOB measured MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg and a whopping 6500 J/kg surface-based, plus effective shear of 45 kt. All told, this points to a more favorable pre- storm environment than yesterday, favoring a combination of multicell clusters and supercells (local RAOB measured a supercell composite of 18.7 and an STP of 2.1). Damaging winds are the primary threat for all modes with considerable dry air aloft inferring DCAPEs of 1200+ J/kg. Supercells will also pose a hail risk. Supercell interactions with sea/sound breezes and remnant outflow from morning convection could also spin up a tornado.
SPC has maintained most of the Outer Banks and coastal locales down to the SC border in a Slight (Level 2/5) risk, with a marginal risk (Level 1/5) farther inland. Given this morning's convection and resulting stabilization, the highest risk has now shifted to the south and west, focused from roughly New Bern SW towards the NC/SC state line. Convection is most likely from 17z through 23z today, with the bulk of activity dissipating after sunset. Any remnant activity should fully dissipate after midnight when the last shortwave pushes off the coast and SFC low departing to the NE, leading to a less conducive flow pattern through the column.
PWATs are down slightly but given the prolonged period of unsettled weather torrential rainfall could once again pose a flash flooding risk, especially in urban and poor drainage areas.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Guidance continues to suggest tomorrow will be primarily dry with only an isolated shower or storm possible on area breezes in the afternoon. On Wednesday, surface flow becomes more onshore kicking off a period of increasing moisture and instability across the Southeast U.S. Coastline with a modest uptick of shower and thunderstorm coverage. Another wave of low pressure is forecast to lift along the offshore frontal boundary Thursday into Friday, pulling it back towards the coast and providing a better focal point for more widespread coverage of showers and storms into the weekend.
18z Monday through Saturday # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #
VFR conditions expected through the majority of the period with an increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms through 00z as surface low slowly progresses along a stalled frontal boundary draped across the coastal plain. All terminals could see direct impacts but highest probabilities are for EWN and OAJ. The strongest storms could produce winds in excess of 50 kt as well as some hail. Convective coverage falls off considerably after 00z, with the area becoming completely dry by 04-05z.
Clearing skies and light winds will once again set the stage for a localized low stratus and fog threat early Tues AM, especially for areas that see rainfall this afternoon.
Outlook: Drier conditions expected tomorrow with a modest uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage Wednesday in increasingly moist SW flow. Front gets pulled back inland Thursday into Friday with even more widespread shower/storm coverage possible.
Benign boating conditions expected through much of the week as frontal boundary meanders across the region, being pulled back and forth by weak waves of low pressure progressing along it. Quiet conditions ongoing today with seas around 2-3 feet with a 12-13 second period peeking through wind chop, while winds are light and variable at generally 5 kt or less. Little change expected in these conditions today, although thunderstorm risk will increase this afternoon and evening as activity gets kicked up along the aforementioned frontal boundary. Stronger storms could produce winds in excess of 50 kt and also produce hail.
Outlook: Winds will become Nerly for a brief time on Tuesday before southerly flow returns by the middle of the week, and lasting into the end of the week. Seas should generally hold around 2-3ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft late in the week. The risk of thunderstorms may decrease some Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing again later in the week.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
