Key MESSAGE 1, High cirrus will continue to stream in across the Carolinas through the morning in association with a low pressure system in the Gulf given the steady SW flow aloft. A dry cold front will track across the Carolinas and push offshore tonight with the low pressure in the Gulf then riding ENEwards along this boundary on WED. At the same time, a strong high pressure ridge will build into the Northeast. The combination of the strong high and departing front/ low will bring a rather strong pressure gradient to the area bringing cool NEerly winds to ENC. Winds may approach wind advisory criteria across the Core Banks, but this seems fairly marginal at this time, so have opted not to go with a headline here, but following shift may have to take another look at this possibility. Given the direction of the winds this will bring a relatively cool maritime airmass over ENC keeping temps below avg through Wed as high temps only get into the upper 50s to 60s today and then mid 50s to 60s on WED.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Mid to late week, low pressure passes offshore, though there are quite a few differences in depth of the low and how close to coast it gets before departing Eward out to sea. Some global guidance solutions keep the low further out to sea and suggest some subtle coastal troughing to develop across the Carolina Coast THU and FRI. Regardless of which solution ends up right, at least a SChc of light offshore showers skirting the coast from Oregon Inlet S through the Crystal Coast through FRI afternoon. Building low level thicknesses through the end of the work week allows warming temps despite the light NEerly flow regime, upper 60s THU, mid 70s FRI. Sun afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the Mid- Atlantic coast, veering local winds more Eerly SUN to become Serly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs into the upper 80s at the end of the forecast period (next TUE).
KEY MESSAGE 3, The strong NEerly winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore which will further build long period swell that will approach the coast will lead to building seas. This swell could lead to wave runup concerns and ocean overwash at particularly vulnerable locations along the OBX coast from Oregon Inlet S through Cape Lookout starting WED. How long the stronger swell hits the coast will be dependent on track and depth of the low, but could potentially last into late-week, and maybe even the weekend if the more pessimistic solutions play out. Adding this threat to the HWO product, but have opted not to go with a High Surf advisory nor any coastal flood headlines until we get a feel for where the front sets up once it sinks S of the FA, and therefor where the low will track.
06z Tuesday through Saturday VFR flight cats are expected through the period. Tonight, winds will be light and variable with broken high clouds. Winds will become northwesterly by tomorrow morning and veer to the northeast through the day, peaking during the afternoon/evening at 10-15 kt as a dry cold front crosses the area. Bkn to OVC mid and high clouds will develop tomorrow and stick around until nearly the end of the period when skies will clear behind the aforementioned front.
Outlook: Pred VFR expected through Friday with high pressure over the area.
Relatively benign boating conditions come to an end today as dry cold front sinks S across area waters. The front is forecast to push offshore by this afternoon and continue south tonight. While at the same time, low pressure currently in the Gulf eventually rides along this front and a strong high pressure ridge builds in from the N. Winds will quickly become N-NEerly and increase to 20-30 kts with gusts up around 30-40 kts across our waters bringing a mix of gale force and SCA criteria winds. All coastal water gale watches from Oregon Inlet S and the Pamlico Sound have been upgraded to Gale Warnings. Scas in place for all other waters. Seas will build given the elevated winds, seas forecast to peak at 7-12ft@8-9sec with wind waves on top of it, highest seas over the Gulfstream where swell direction will oppose the current.
Outlook: Once these hazardous conditions develop expect continued strong NE winds at 15-20 kts with gusts up around 25-30 kts across our waters from Wed evening into the end of the week as the pressure gradient will remain pinched between the aforementioned high and front/low. Seas will remain 6+ ft into the weekend as well. While Gales are forecast to come to an end by late WED, SCAs will continue into the weekend at least across our coastal waters.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 11 pm EDT Wednesday for amz131-230-231. Gale warning from 9 pm this evening to 3 pm EDT Wednesday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 5 pm EDT Wednesday for amz136. Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 2 pm EDT Thursday for amz137. Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am EDT Saturday for amz150. Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm EDT Wednesday for amz152-154. Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to midnight EDT Wednesday night for amz156-158.
