Key MESSAGE 1, There is little change in the synoptic setup as an upper level trough currently in the Tennessee River Valley has stalled across the area and will remain there into midweek before weakening and eventually getting absorbed by a passing northern stream trough Wed/Thurs. This should keep the moisture channel open from the Gulf into at least midweek as upper level S-SW'rly winds remain in place advecting moisture N'wards. This second trough should remain well enough to the north to preclude any impacts to the area later this week. At the same time we still expect a few shortwaves to transit around the base of this trough and lift north through the Carolinas today and potentially again on Wed. As the upper trough dissipates/gets absorbed later this week any mid level forcing does look to shift further inland away from ENC.
What does this mean for us as far as ambient weather goes through Wed? Stalled surface front to our west will move little before dissipating on Wed. A shortwave transits across the area this morning bringing a renewed threat for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, initially along the coast but slowly progressing inland. While the flooding risk is localized to areas where heavy rain rates stall, that does not mean it is zero as any shower or storm will have a chance to produce rainfall rates of at least 1-2" an hour which could yield an isolated and localized threat for flooding in slower moving storms. In fact, a Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Northern Hatteras Island as 3-6" inches of rain have fallen in the past 2-3 hours in the area. Any addition areas where localized flash flooding could occur are confined to along the Crystal Coast and along the OBX south of Oregon Inlet.
We are now in a Marginal (level 1/4) Excessive Rain Outlook for today.
KEY MESSAGE 2, By the end of the week it looks like we return back to climo or below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or significant forcing will be noted across ENC. This will likely result in chances for showers and thunderstorms along the daily seabreeze but once again these chances should be isolated at best given the overall setup. After a cool start to the week given widespread cloudcover and rain as highs only get into the low to mid 80s and lows in the low 70s through Wed, we do begin to warm back up with temps returning to the upper 80s to low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX.
09z Tuesday through Saturday VFR conds are noted across ENC early this morning. Much like last night another round of low stratus and maybe even some patchy fog inland appears likely with MVFR to IFR ceilings increasingly likely just before sunrise. Low stratus is forecast to remain in place once it sets up through the early morning hours before it lifts and MVFR to possibly VFR sometime in the afternoon. Finally yet another round of scattered showers and some thunderstorms are possible today keeping elevated chances of at least TEMPO sub- VFR conditions in place.
Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Periods of sub-VFR ceilings/vis are possible Wednesday with a chances for showers and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west. Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed and into the weekend as high pressure builds into the area.
Winds and seas have continued to ease this morning as a stalled front to our west has continued to weaken with high pressure ridging building into the area. Ongoing S-SW winds at 10-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft are noted across across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet early this morning. As the aforementioned front gradually dissipates today and high pressure ridging builds further over the area, winds and seas will ease with winds falling to 5-10 kts out of the S-SW and seas falling to 2-4 ft by this afternoon. Will note while winds and seas will decrease there will continue to be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across our waters.
Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Expect more benign winds and seas for the period as high pressure remains the dominant feature across the region. Winds generally remain below 15 kts and seas persist around 2-4 ft into the weekend.
Nc, beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz195-196- 199-204-205. Marine, none.
