Key MESSAGE 1, Latest obs show a weak area of low pressure currently about 300 miles east of Cape Hatteras with showers wrapping around this low, mainly across the offshore waters. In addition to this, latest obs show widespread NE'rly winds gusting to 35-45 mph along the OBX and coast with winds decreasing the further inland you go to about 10-20 mph.
Overall not much change in forecast thinking as a mid level shortwave is forecast to round the base of an upper level trough currently located along the Eastern Seaboard today into tonight. This mid level shortwave will act to rapidly deepen the aforementioned surface low as it slowly shifts north in the coming days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty N/NE winds and dangerous coastal and marine conditions to ENC. Uncertainty still exists with the eventual strength and exact track of the low as it shifts off towards the New England coast as we approach this weekend. Latest guidance is still rather split with the Canadian and GFS deterministic and ensemble guidance further east than the ICON, ECMWF and its ensembles. This is mainly owed to the fact the the ECMWF and ICON have the low starting to deepen slightly earlier and these solutions have a more consolidated low today while the GFS and Canadian guidance suggests a complex low will remain in place today into tomorrow with the northern lobe becoming the dominant low over the next few days as it deepens. We look to get some further clarity today into tonight as we will see exactly where this low will set up as it deepens which will go a long way in determining exact duration of impacts for ENC. This results in continued low to moderate confidence on the end time of hazardous marine conditions and coastal impacts.
Regarding sensible weather, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast are expected to persist through today. Flooding risk remains very low.
By far, the greatest impacts with this coastal low remain across the Outer Banks. Here, continued moderate to strong northeast to north winds remain in place, and potentially last into Saturday morning, especially if the ECMWF/ICON solutions are correct. Probabilistic guidance continues to show a strong signal for reaching Wind Advisory criteria with both sustained winds and gusts, and the wind advisory for Dare County, Ocracoke, and Downeast Carteret County remains in effect. For the OBX from Cape Hatteras north, peak gusts could top out around 50 mph, and this may lead to some minor tree and power line damage, along with a risk of isolated power outages. Roads along the Outer Banks may be dangerous to traverse for high profile vehicles, especially along bridges.
The strong, and long duration, of the winds is also expected to support an increased risk of coastal impacts. Seas are already dangerous, reaching heights of about 13-16 ft at 13-14 seconds north of Cape Hatteras and already up to around 10 ft across the outer waters of Onslow Bay as of this update. Seas likely peak around 15-20 ft today into tonight creating dangerous surf conditions in addition to a risk of beach erosion, wave runup, ocean overwash, and minor to moderate coastal flooding. Of note, the highest wave energy appears to be aligned with the evening high tide today (which happens to be the highest of the two high tides today). This will likely result in impacts to vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks north of Ocracoke Inlet where dune structures are compromised or non-existent. At this point the 6-8ft+ wave heights in the surf zone may last into this weekend. A High Surf Advisory Remains in effect through Saturday evening.
For soundside areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, and the nearby Neuse River, persistent north to northeasterly winds may lead to minor coastal flooding through Friday. Already, some gauges in the southern Pamlico Sound are approaching or have reached minor flood levels. Eventually the winds are expected to turn more northerly, which may then allow the soundside coastal flooding risk to shift to portions of Ocracoke and Hatteras Villages.
Please continue to stay tuned for future updates as this is a complex and longer-duration coastal low event, with subtle changes in strength and path of the low leading to increased, or decreased, coastal impacts.
key message 2, As the low shifts to New England and eventually weakens, sfc high and ridging aloft builds into ENC early next week. This will bring lighter winds, sunshine, and warmer weather back to the region. Of note, despite the warming weather, light northerly to variable winds early next week are forecast to keep dewpoints in the 50s, making for more comfortable conditions despite highs warming up into the mid to upper 80s.
12z Thursday through Monday Biggest challenge this morning has been the more widespread IFR ceilings across ENC. For now have added in IFR ceilings at all TAF sites and surrounding areas until 13/14Z. At which point breezy NE'rly winds are forecast to allow this low cloud deck to lift to MVFR heights and remain at MVFR heights into this afternoon.
Otherwise, modest northeasterly winds continue at all TAF sites this morning as a coastal low continues to get organized offshore east of the Carolinas. These winds will continue through much of today with winds forecast to ease tonight at least across inland areas as the nocturnal inversion sets up capping wind potential. The one caveat to this will be across the OBX where gusty winds will likely continue into Fri morning given the areas proximity to the aforementioned low. Winds will be gusty at times, with gusts of 20-30kt expected. At times, crosswind impacts can be expected at KEWN, especially during the day today. Cigs are a mix of MVFR and IFR at this time, but predominantly MVFR CIGs are expected to move over all of ENC later this morning. By Thursday afternoon, slightly drier air moving in may allow CIGs to rise to VFR, especially at KISO and KPGV. Additional improvements to cigs are possible further east across EWN/OAJ tonight with much of the area potentially seeing VFR conditions return by early Fri morning given current trends.
Areas of very light RA or DZ will be possible this morning, but VIS should mostly stay at, or above, 5SM. Drier air eventually begins to work in later this afternoon, lowering the coverage of RA/DZ into tonight with much of the area outside of the OBX remaining dry tonight.
Outlook: The coastal low will continue to support periods of gusty winds, low CIGs, and SHRA through the end of the week mainly along the OBX. Cigs are forecast to eventually rise to VFR levels everywhere across ENC by the weekend as drier air begins to wraparound the western periphery of the low keeping skies partly cloudy. As this low moves away Fri into Saturday winds are also forecast to ease across ENC as well.
Dangerous conditions remain across ENC this morning with widespread gale force winds both sustained and gusts noted across our waters as a slowly consolidating low currently about 300 miles to the east of Cape Hatteras begins to deepen. In addition to this, seas are currently around 13-16 ft north of Hatteras at 13 14 second periods and 8-12 ft at 10 1 second periods south of Hatteras.
These dangerous boating conditions look to continue into at least Friday as the aforementioned low begins to rapidly deepen later today into tonight and slowly shift N'wards towards the Northeastern CONUS. As a result, gale force NErly winds are expected to persist into Friday across most of our coastal and inland waters with 20-30 kt winds and 35-45 kt gusts forecast for just about all of the waters outside of the Pamlico/Pungo/Neuse/Bay Rivers where SCA conditions will be noted. Seas of 10-20ft will be possible, especially for the waters from Cape Lookout north through Duck. The nearshore coastal waters sheltered in N and NE flow south of Lookout may only have seas peak at 2-7ft. Swell periods will remain around 10-13 seconds into this weekend as well. Marine headlines in effect nicely cover the expected hazards, with only minor tweaks to gale end times on this update. Of note, there is some uncertainty on the end time of the gale products, and hopefully confidence on an end time increases today.
Outlook: Based on the latest guidance, hazardous marine conditions may last well into the weekend, especially for the coastal waters as seas remain elevated. However, winds should gradually lay down over the weekend as the low pulls away and a high builds in with more benign boating conditions forecast by early next week.
Nc, wind advisory until 2 am EDT Friday for ncz047-196-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 11 am EDT Friday for ncz094-194- 196. Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz195-196- 199-203>205. Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm EDT Friday for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT Saturday for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until 11 pm EDT Friday for ncz204-205. Marine, gale warning until 8 pm EDT Friday for amz131-135-154-184-230- 231. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Friday for amz136-137. Gale warning until 2 am EDT Saturday for amz150-152-180-182. Gale warning until 8 am EDT Friday for amz156-158-188. Gale warning until 2 pm EDT Friday for amz186.
