Key MESSAGE 1, Near record temperatures are expected today and tomorrow thanks to warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This will equate to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with the only meaningful rainfall coming on Sunday, which only looks to be about 1/4" or less across the forecast area.
Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Over the weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There will be just enough low-level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, rainfall amounts do not look impressive, with only about 1/4" or less of rain. While instability will likely be modest, deep layer shear of 50-60kt would be supportive of organized convection, if deep updrafts can form. We'll continue to monitor this potential.
Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s to start the new week.
00z Saturday through Wednesday
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all sites. Winds this evening have become light and variable and should remain so through the overnight hours. On Saturday afternoon expect winds to gain a more southerly component as they pick up to 5-10 kts. No fog or low clouds outside of some patchy ground fog is expected at the terminals. Short term models are hinting at some lower visibilities over the northern Outer Banks, probably in the form of sea fog in the vicinity of FFA and MQI. Otherwise some cloud cover may move in from the west near the end of the TAF period but should not threaten MVFR levels until Sunday when a cold front approaches.
Outlook: A period of low stratus clouds may develop offshore and advect inland Saturday night into Sunday morning with a risk of sub- VFR CIGs. A cold front will then move through ENC between 13z-18z on Sunday with a chance of SHRA, TSRA, and sub- VFR CIGs. A period of gusty winds is expected as well, especially along and behind the front. During this time, wind gusts as high as 20-25kt are expected. Lighter winds return by early next week as high pressure builds back into the area.
Marine conditions continue to improve this afternoon as a weak cold front makes its way across the CWA. Winds are SWerly at 5-15 kt south of Cape Hatteras and light and variable to the north. Southerly flow will redevelop across all waters by tonight and increase to 10-20 kt by tomorrow afternoon. Seas will generally by 3-5 ft through today and then subside to 2-3 ft.
Outlook: Southwest winds will increase again late Saturday night ahead of a cold front. Small craft conditions are likely ahead of the front across the coastal waters, and then as the front passes, winds will veer to the N and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Sunday night with the potential for some Gale force gusts. Seas are expected to build to 5-8 ft in response, peaking late Sunday/early Monday. Scattered thunderstorms may occur with the front as well.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195. Marine, none.
