Key MESSAGE 1, Unsettled pattern will linger through this weekend across eastern NC as upper trough continues to linger over the eastern CONUS and stalled front sits to our north and west. Ahead of the frontal boundary, a deep plume of Gulf moisture continues to stream northeastward along the coast of the Carolinas, characterized by PWATs of 2"+ per mesoanalysis. As is typical overnight, focus of convection is waning over the Albemarle Peninsula with loss of heating while activity begins to blossom offshore.
Main focus in the near term is development of low stratus and some patchy fog with very weak winds and saturated boundary layer. Observations are already showing some spotty development across the inner coastal plain and expect this to expand as we near dawn, with highest probabilities of low clouds west of Highway 17.
Later today, this will play a role in the amount of convective coverage. Stalled front will remain in the area and provide a potential focal point for development and upper troughing will linger (although it is forecast to begin lifting out of the area later in the day, limiting overall coverage). However, like yesterday, with very weak flow lower clouds will likely take their time eroding and could significantly hamper overall instability. Nbm probabilities for rainfall are likely too aggressive and capped at high-end chance for now. Best chances for more robust convection will likely be farther north along the edge of the stratus deck where differential heating zones will develop - this favors areas along and north of Highway 264 particularly in the afternoon and evening. Given weak shear, a strong storm is unlikely but deep moisture continues to point to a torrential rainfall threat. Wpc has retained our area in a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for today to account for this.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Shower and thunderstorm coverage gradually wanes next week as upper ridging builds into the region from the west. Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm through the period along sea and sound breezes although activity will likely be short-lived. The main story will be the building heat with highs expected to climb into the 90s early next week and peaking in the mid to upper 90s as we move into the middle of the week. Heat headlines may be needed as early as Wednesday with forecast heat indices climbing above 105, especially along the coast and inland counties along and south of US70.
06z Saturday through Wednesday # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #
Moderate uncertainty for this morning's forecast. Latest analysis shows stalled front displaced to the north and west of terminals with decaying precipitation, with plenty of low-level moisture already seeing an increase in low stratus and patchy fog observations across the coastal plain. Lamp guidance has been waffling on how low cigs get this morning, but most strongly favor MVFR for all terminals with the highest probabilities for IFR (20-25%) west of EWN. With weak winds, MVFR cigs may stick around well into the daytime hours like yesterday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely again today after 15-16z, although lingering lower clouds may inhibit more widespread coverage. Skies clear tonight into Sun AM, and with weak winds and lingering moisture another round of fog and low stratus is probable.
Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west on Sun and beyond resulting in more benign flying conditions. Iso shower or storm cannot be ruled out along area sea and sound breezes.
Regional observations show benign boating conditions continue with generally variable winds of 5-10 kts over soundside waters while further offshore a steady SW wind remains at 10-15 kt. Seas sit at 2-3 feet with a period of 8-9 sec. Weakening front will continue to linger near area waters through today, promoting ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms focused in the overnight and early morning hours. Cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm or two capable of producing gusts in excess of 35 kt.
Outlook: Latter half of the weekend and early next week, front pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds in from the W allowing for more benign marine conditions and lower chances for precip.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
