Key MESSAGE 1, Warm and muggy with temps in the 70s across ENC and some debris clouds from shower and thunderstorm activity well to the west overspreading portions of the CWA this morning. These debris clouds likely have some impact on rain chances today as well as high temps. Either way, still expecting it to be hot and muggy across ENC for yet another day with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and mid 80s across the OBX. Temps will be slightly muted and how hot we get today will largely depend on how long debris clouds from overnight activity hang around the area this morning. For now, expect the area to be partly to mo cloudy this morning with some clearing this afternoon. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s expecting heat indices between 95-104F this afternoon. While this will be just below heat advisory criteria, it will still remain rather hot today.
Expecting hot and humid conditions to continue into the end of the workweek across ENC. Low level thicknesses will remain around 1430m and based off the offices climatological study, this is forecast to result in highs in the mid to upper 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast Thurs/Fri before a front impacts the region Fri evening into Sat resulting in cooler temperatures this weekend. Temps may briefly warm up once again early next week as well.
Heat indices are expected to peak around 105-110F Thurs and Fri with heat headlines possible for much of the area both days. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated.
KEY MESSAGE 2, There have been some changes to the precip forecast over the next few days. While we still expect chances for showers and thunderstorms each day across ENC into this weekend, chances look to have lowered a fair amount at least in the near term (today/tomorrow) given the latest trends. While we still expect several shortwaves to ride along the northern periphery of an upper level ridge centered across the Gulf Coast this week, a mix of cloud cover today and some subsidence aloft today and into the early part of tomorrow, may put a damper on precip chances with any MCS's that ride along the surface ridging remaining to our west today. Because of this have only kept SChc PoPs along the sea breeze this afternoon as a result. Have a slightly better chance tomorrow evening but even that has higher uncertainty than normal given it is highly dependent on if an MCS can track far enough east to bring precip to ENC. Either way, with a moist and unstable airmass in place, could see isolated seabreeze storms develop this afternoon and again on Thurs afternoon.
A stronger northern stream shortwave is progged to push across the Mid-Atlantic Friday with the attendant cold front pushing into the area Fri evening into Sat bringing the best forcing and chances for widespread showers and storms across the area. High pressure build into the area over the weekend bringing bringing a drier airmass and minimal chances for storms. However, a second frontal boundary looks to approach next week which could once again bring increased chances for showers and storms early next week.
12z Wednesday through Sunday AMD NOT SKED is kept for EWN with spotty observations. Tafs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. Nkt is the closest ASOS. Ewn is able to be dialed into to receive latest observations.
A primarily VFR TAF through the period as a mix of light S to SW'rly winds and high clouds persist this morning across ENC. Winds look to turn more westerly later this morning and into the afternoon, but will remain light. Outside of the daily seabreeze, diurnal Cu develops around 4-5 kft this afternoon. Recent trends also suggest precip chances remain low for today and as a result have precluded any mention of precip in the TAFs today. Expect VFR ceilings/vis to continue through tonight as well.
Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are expected Thurs and into Fri, but there will be isolated to widely scattered convection possible each afternoon and evening that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. A cold front is progged to push through the area late Friday/Friday night that will bring the best chances for prolonged sub-VFR conditions. Vfr conditions return Sun as high pressure briefly builds into the area. In addition, there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning with best chances in areas that saw significant rainfall the previous afternoon/evening.
No real changes to the forecast as rather benign boating conditions are expected through at least Fri morning across ENC. W-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, will increase each afternoon to around 10-20 kt and become S-SW today, Thurs, and again on Fri as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 1-3 ft into Fri. As we get into Fri afternoon and evening an approaching cold front will strengthen the gradient and while not explicitly stated, bring the potential for stronger and near SCA force wind gusts and 3-5 ft seas to our waters. Will have to monitor trends incase SCA's are needed in the coming days. A return to more benign boating conditions are then forecast Sat night into Sun as high pressure ridging builds into the area.
A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters through the end of the week continuing to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven over the Gulf Stream waters. A cold front is progged to push across the waters late Friday/Friday night bringing the best chance to see showers and thunderstorms.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
