A cold front will continue to sweep across the area early this morning, with a reinforcing arctic front following tonight. High pressure then returns for the middle to latter half of the week.
Today As of 2 AM Mon, Latest analysis shows sfc low along the NE coast with attendant cold front moving through the coastal plain early this morning. Area of showers and isolated coastal thunderstorms continue to push through this morning ahead of the boundary. Svr risk still looks low, but could see isolated stronger wind gust over the coastal waters during the next few hours. Precip will taper off from west to east early this morning as drier and cooler air surges in. Cloudy skies this morning, will clear rapidly late morning and this afternoon from west to east with downsloping flow off the Appalachians. Low level thickness values and clearing skies support highs temps in the low/mid 50s inland and upper 50s to around 60 along the coast (about 10 deg below climo).
Tonight As of 2 AM Mon,
Key Messages
- The coldest air of the season arrives tonight into Tuesday.
- Freeze warning now in effect for most of Mainland ENC.
- Scattered non-accumulating light snow or flurries possible late tonight, with best chances across the northern tier.
A reinforcing arctic cold front will move through tonight. With this arctic wind surge, gusty winds and plummeting temps expected. A good chance for a freeze for much of inland ENC, with upper 20s to lower 30s expected. Freeze Warnings continue for most of the area (except Downeast and the Outer Banks). A strong breeze will limit optimal radiational cooling, but either way, areas that don't get a freeze will feel like they're well below freezing due to the gusty nwrly breezes.
Other than the cold, beneath the upper low which, in conjunction with a stout embedded midlevel shortwave traversing the region, may support brief -ra/sn to light snow or snow showers/flurries. Have cont 20-30% pops, highest along the Hwy 64 corridor, where a light dusting on grassy areas may occur. Certainly no impacts or accums on roads expected. Elsewhere, some snow flurries may make it to the ground all the way to the Crystal Coast.
Tuesday through Sunday As of 2 AM Mon,
Key Messages
- The coldest air of the season arrives Tuesday
Tuesday-Tuesday Night, Thicknesses/hts bottom out on Tue, with highs only in the 40s area-wide, some 20 degrees below climo. Some question on how quickly return flow can develop on Tue night. There is a window for the coldest night of the season to fall along the mainland coastal zones if winds can stay calm to light. Have lows around freezing for the Crystal Coast through Mainland Dare. If winds pick up too quickly, as they are expected to gradually inc out of the SW with swrly gradient picking up, a freeze here could be prevented.
Wednesday through Sunday, High pressure remains centered across the SE US Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming temperatures, but still ~5 degrees below normal with highs in the lower 60s. A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant sfc trough/front pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry and don't expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip, with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead of ridging sliding across Sern CONUS will actually bring a few degrees of warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s. High pressure builds into the area Friday before sliding offshore first half of the weekend with highs in the low to mid 60s. The next front will approach the area late next weekend and early next week, with increasing rain chances.
06z Monday through Friday As of 0045 Monday,
Key Messages: - Overnight FROPA - SHRA likely 6Z-10Z, coastal sites may see TSRA - SubVFR flight restrictions possible same time frame as SHRA - Winds switch to NW and become gusty behind front - Winds remain gusty through mid-week
VFR flight cats in place with SWerly winds of 5-10kt ahead of a cold front approaching from the W. Expectation is for SCT to NUM SHRA to overspread ENC the next few hours, with an embedded TSRA or two possible, greatest chance coastal terminals, but expecting lightning to remain E of TAF sites for the most part. There is a low chance (<5%) for a stronger thunderstorm that could produce a stronger wind gusts (40-60 mph) or small hail. Once cold front pushes through respective sites, winds become NWerly around 10 kts with gusts to 15- 20 kts. Guidance indicates there will be a brief period of MVFR conditions for coastal terminals of OAJ/EWN after midnight tonight, but do not expect these reductions to last more than a few hours. Chances for IFR ceilings are currently LOW. Drier air moving in behind the front will then kill convective showers and begin to clear skies from W to E. Vfr flight cats through the entirety of daylight hours MON.
Outlook: VFR conditions are expected for much of the upcoming work week. The one exception is Monday night as a secondary cold front moves through with the potential for a brief round of low CIGs and SHRASN. Should any SN occur, it is expected to be brief with no accumulations, and mainly confined from KPGV Eward through KFFA, though terminals S of the aforementioned line may see some flurries. A period of gusty Werly winds is expected Tuesday, followed by gusty SWerly winds on Wednesday.
Oday through Friday/, As of 2 AM Mon,
Key Messages
- Strong W/NW winds will develop late tonight and Tuesday morning - SCA conditions, possible Gales, expected again Wednesday
Latest obs show WSW-SW winds 10-20 kt and seas 3-5 ft. A cold front will move through the waters early this morning, with winds becoming NW 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. A much stronger reinforcing arctic front is still expected to move through the waters tonight, with W-NW winds increasing to 20-30 kt gusting 25-40 kt. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound, with SCAs for the inland rivers and northern sounds through mid day Tue. Seas build as high as 6-9 ft for the waters s of Hatteras. Winds relax a bit Tue night, but reinforcing gradient on swrly winds expected Wed, and could see some gales again south of Cape Hatteras once again. Winds and seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday as high pressure builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the coast first half of the weekend.
Nc, freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EST Tuesday for ncz029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199. Marine, small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 4 pm EST Tuesday for amz131-136-137. Gale warning from 2 am to noon EST Tuesday for amz135. Gale warning from 4 am to noon EST Tuesday for amz150. Gale warning from midnight tonight to noon EST Tuesday for amz152-154-156-158. Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm EST Wednesday for amz230-231.
