Key MESSAGE 1, While seas have decreased considerably over the last 24 hours, there is still some potential for minor ocean overwash at the next high tide this evening (around 8 PM) for portions of the Outer Banks. In addition, minor soundside flooding (1 ft or less) is still possible for coastal areas due to already elevated waters levels and high astronomical tides. Cf Advisories continue through late tonight. No plan to extend coastal flood advisory at the moment; astro tide peaks on TUE, but seas have fallen substantially and winds overnight and MON will be significantly weaker than today. After tonight's high tide, no "new flooding," i.e. Ocean overwash is expected, but there still may be standing water on roadways, in low lying or poor drainage areas, which would still have travel impacts. Places that saw flooding this morning will still see elevated water levels through the early week, but do not think as high as today.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Southeast U.S. Later this week, but guidance has slowed down some on when this occurs. In light of this, the warmest temperatures of the week have trended towards the end of the week (Thursday/Friday). Beneath the ridge, warming low-level thicknesses and persistent southerly flow may allow inland highs to get back close to 90 degrees (roughly 10 degrees above normal as we head into the first few days of October). The humidity is forecast to steadily return as well, but with ridging in place, the chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to stay low for much of the week. The next front will approach the area next weekend.
00z Monday through Friday Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Light and variable winds with background windfield predominantly Werly becoming Nerly with FL050 Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to dominate moving into at least the first half of the week. Latest obs show W to WSW winds 10-20 kt with seas 3-6 ft north of Ocracoke and 2-5 ft south, highest offshore. Moderate winds will continue overnight with seas grad subsiding. W-wnw winds 5-15 kt early Mon, becoming W/SW by afternoon. Outlook: Several days of much-improved boating conditions are anticipated for much of this week. Light winds expected through Thursday. Seas of 2-3 ft are forecast for much of the week as well. Nc, coastal flood advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ncz203>205. Marine, none. Marine
Watches, Warnings, Advisories
