Key MESSAGE 1, Latest surface analysis shows previously mentioned warm front just off the coast this morning with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity riding SE'wards along this front. A surface trough is also noted across the Triad vicinity which has produced some weakening showers and isolated tstms that are tracking west from central NC towards ENC this morning. While I have left PoPs sub mentionable this morning across the area, can't rule out a stray sprinkle mainly along northern portions of ENC before this aforementioned trough exits the region.
Overall the upper level pattern will remain the same in the coming days with upper ridging settled into the Southeast promoting westerly flow into midweek before flow backs and becomes SW'rly later this week out ahead of an incoming upper level trough. At the mid levels, shortwave currently in the Mid- Atlantic vicinity will push offshore this morning with next weak shortwave not approaching the area until this evening. From Tue onwards we likely see a series of weak shortwaves that track across the region and are diurnal in nature before the next significant shortwave approaches the region this weekend.
Well what does this mean for us at ENC as far as ambient weather goes? Low level thicknesses across the region today increase to about 1435-1440+ m under westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will pin the seabreeze closer to the coast today as a result. This will set the stage for highs in the mid to upper 90s inland with upper 80s to low 90s noted along the OBX. Any leftover debris clouds from overnight activity is forecast to quickly dissipate today allowing for mo clear skies into the afternoon. Current forecast reflects dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s inland and potentially nearing 80 behind the pinned seabreeze. There is some uncertainty with how much mixing occurs today as W'rly downsloping flow does tend to mix us out more than forecast, but even then, the most aggressive guidance only suggests dewpoints in the low 70s across the inner Coastal Plain worst case. Regardless of mixing, with highs in the mid to upper 90s today, widespread heat indices of 105-110F are expected across ENC with the heat advisory remaining in place across Lenoir, Greene, Beaufort, Washington, Tyrrell, Dare, and Hyde Counties. The one change I did make this forecast package was to upgrade portions of the heat advisory across Duplin, Onslow, Carteret, Craven, Jones, and Pamlico County to an extreme heat warning as heat indices look to get to about 110-115F this afternoon. This area has the highest pribability of reaching higher end heat impacts given its proximity to the seabreeze and is supported by HREF probs around 40-60% of HI greater than 109F this afternoon.
A weak frontal boundary quickly pushes across NC tonight before stalling along the coast. Like this weekend, southern counties will likely remain hot and humid while Albemarle and vicinity see some modest relief. A more widespread cooldown, however, is on the horizon late week as a stronger cold front dives out of Canada and across the eastern CONUS. Overall, this just means additional heat headlines will be likely Tue/Wed/Thurs across at least portions of ENC before the second stronger front approaches Fri into this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Latest surface analysis shows previously mentioned warm front just off the coast this morning with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity riding SE'wards along this front near the Albemarle Sound. A surface trough is also noted across the Triad vicinity which has produced some weakening showers and isolated tstms that are tracking west from central NC towards ENC this morning.
Upper ridging is settled into the Southeast promoting westerly flow into midweek before flow backs and becomes SW'rly later this week out ahead of an incoming upper level trough. At the mid levels, shortwave currently in the Mid-Atlantic vicinity will push offshore this morning with next weak shortwave not approaching the area until this evening.
A weakening cold front approaches from the north and west this evening. Aforementioned heat and humidity will easily boost instability with a forecast 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, but shear will once again be lacking, generally 20 kt or less, and the next shortwave will not approach the area until later this evening. Pwats remain at or above 2" so conditions will once again be favorable for a stronger storm or two to impact the area bringing a damaging wind, frequent lightning, and torrential rain threat. We may see slightly less seabreeze activity today given westerly downslope flow with any precip today primarily coming from the incoming front this evening. Any upstream convection associated with this front will sweep E'wards this evening into ENC with the potential for some organized complexes of thunderstorms to impact ENC before activity dissipates late tonight. This activity would pose a low end severe threat with damaging winds being the primary hazard within the strongest storms. Ai NWP guidance has elevated probabilities, which are plausible since northwest flow events tend to overperform across eastern NC.
KEY MESSAGE 3, No real changes for the extended forecast just yet as hot and humid conditions persist into the end of the week. A brief return to more climo PoPs is forecast Tue and Wed with the seabreeze and stalled front offshore being the main focus for showers and thunderstorms. Stronger front is likely to approach the region and stall late week, serving to both offer a reprieve from oppressive heat and humidity, and a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms as shear increases alongside the boundary with stronger troughing. Given how far out this is, there are still several details to hammer out but will be monitoring trends in the forecast for any adjustments in timing and strength of this front in the coming days.
06z Monday through Friday Primarily VFR conditions are noted across ENC this morning with just a few wisps of low stratus noted near the Crystal Coast under high clouds. Expecting a mainly VFR TAF through the period as the area remains mainly low cloud and fog free through this morning under light SW'rly winds. While some guidance suggests MVFR CIGs may develop the probability of this occurring is only around 20-40%. Therefore, the TAFs will only show a SCT009 to SCT015 layer to highlight the potential.
During the day on Monday, a southwest to west-southwest wind under diurnal Cu at 4-6 kft will develop. Slightly drier air and weak lift should keep the TSRA risk low for much of the day. The risk then looks to increase during the evening hours as a cold front approaches from the west. However, given inherent uncertainty with tstm impacts this evening have kept all TAF sites precip free for now. Will need to evaluate the threat in coming TAF cycles and a SHRA/TSRA mention may be added in coming updates, main threat time looks to be between 00-06Z Tue.
Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Expecting primarily VFR conditions from Tue through Thurs. The lone exceptions would be under isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven seabreeze shower and thunderstorm activity each day. No significant fog or low stratus concerns each night either but trends will have to be monitored in case the threat increases in the coming days. Yet another front begins to approach from the west Friday once again bringing increased shower and thunderstorm risks as well as increasing risks for sub-VFR conditions.
Boating conditions remain benign across our waters this morning with widespread 5-15 kt SW'rly winds and 15-20 kt gusts. Seas generally remain around 2-3 ft as well across the coastal waters this morning. Southwest flow will strengthen this afternoon and evening with tightening thermal gradient in the afternoon, and we may see some infrequent gusts to 25 kt across sounds and near- shore waters. While normally gusts to 25 kts would result in small craft advisories being issued across portions of our waters given the infrequent nature and lower probability of this occuring have elected to remain headline free across our waters today and tonight. Elevated SW'rly winds begin to ease late tonight into Tue morning back down to 5-10 kts. Seas likely climb up to 3 to 4 feet briefly this afternoon and evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms likely tonight as a front approaches our waters.
Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Benign boating conditions persist Tues and Wed with eyes to next potential SCA late next week with a stronger frontal boundary. Each day will bring a low to moderate risk (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms to area waters.
Nc, heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz029-044>047-079>081-091-203>205. Extreme heat warning from 11 am this morning to 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz090-092-094-193>196-198-199. Marine, none.
