Key message 1,
This afternoon, showers and thunderstorms have popped up along the sea breeze and some residual differential heating boundaries from earlier cloud cover. Some convection has been accompanied by frequent lightning and heavier showers but the vast majority of the activity is expected to stay sub severe this afternoon. Short term models have shower and thunderstorm activity decreasing through the evening and ceasing around 00z.
Taking a wider view for the upcoming period, an upper ridge and Bermuda high pressure will be centered off the coast through Saturday, becoming suppressed late in the weekend as shortwave energy pushes across the mid- Atlantic. More of a zonal pattern develops next week with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area. Precip chances will be near climo each day with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon, then dissipating with loss of heating during the evening. The severe threat appears minimal through the period with limited shear and forcing.
A gradual warming trend will continue through the period as well with highs in the lower 90s inland through the weekend, then warming in to the mid 90s next week. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat Risk increase to around 60-80% Monday through Thursday of next week.
18z Thursday through Tuesday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in play for all terminals this afternoon with more coverage currently in the vicinity of EWN and OAJ and then will progress northwestward as the sea breeze pushes inland bringing occasional sub- VFR conditions within heavier showers and storms. A similar set up with mainly clear skies and light winds will bring a chance for fog and stratus again late Thursday night with PGV and ISO the most likely terminals to experience MVFR/IFR ceilings.
Of note, AMD NOT SKED was appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing communications issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted.
Outlook (Friday through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning.
Bermuda high will remains in control as it sits off the coast. S to SW winds around 5-15 kt with seas around 2-4 ft continue to prevail. As we move into tomorrow, somewhat stronger winds are possible during the late afternoon and evening hours Friday through the weekend as temps warm inland, bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the inland rivers and near the Gulf Stream are expected to dissipate late this afternoon with quieter conditions into Friday night. Nearshore coastal waters should have less convective coverage this afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday into early next week as a trough of low pressure rotates around the Bermuda High and off the NC coast.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
