Key MESSAGE 1, Subtropical Storm Josephine, continues to accelerate northeastward away from our area. As expected a marked decrease in winds have occurred with seas still running quite high off our coast, but lower than previous days. With continued large surf and longer period swell, coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast will continue through early tonight, especially along Hatteras Island where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe. The next high tides are around 5 PM today. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras Island and a Coastal Flood Advisory for the Northern Outer Banks. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for the beaches from Duck to Cape Hatteras where surf heights 8-12 ft will through early evening. Beyond tonight, aafternooncontinued lowering trend in waves and swell will gradually give us a lull Friday before conditions pick up again (see key message 3 below). It should be noted that although water levels may fall below typical values that would cause flooding, due to the extensive erosion and dune loss, impacts Friday may still continue.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Pleasantly cooler air mass will remain with us through the next several days with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast. Good radiational cooling conditions are expected again tonight. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 30s, lows in our typical cold spots should drop into the 30s once again. Model soundings do show just a few more knots of wind in the boundary layer compared to yesterday, so we may not be quite as cold as last night. A bit more mixing ensues Friday night as strong high pressure builds in from the north preventing temps from cratering.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Strong high pressure building in from the north and low pressure well off the SE coast will result in a period of breezy to strong NE winds returning late Friday through the weekend with strongest winds along the coast, especially south of Cape Hatteras where gradients will be tightest. This, combined with developing King Tides could lead to additional minor coastal impacts (coastal flooding and rough surf).
18z Thursday through Tuesday VFR conditions through early tonight. A few gusts over 15 kts possible for a time this afternoon but overall NE winds less than 10 kts. We may have some patchy fog after 06Z with brief MVFR vsybs possible. Too low of confidence to include in the TAFS now, especially considering our wind may be a few more knots higher than this morning. Vfr Friday.
Outlook (Friday night through Tuesday): VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next several days with strong high pressure building in from the north.
Conditions continue to slowly improve across the waters, enough so we were able to drop the SCA south of Ocracoke Inlet. Farther north, still seeing some long period swell especially north of Cape Hatteras, with 10 foot waves at 13 seconds east of Oregon Inlet. Waves north of Cape Hatteras come down especially after midnight but remain elevated Friday before increasing again late in the day. Sca conditions return to all coastal waters (that don't already have a SCA out) by afternoon.
Outlook (Friday night through Tuesday): Winds and seas increasing again Friday into the weekend as strong high pressure builds in from the north. This is expected to lead to extended period of SCA conditions, possibly gales across portions of the outer waters. Gradients will be tightest across the southern waters with highest probability for Gales across the outer waters south of Cape Hatteras as well as near shore Onslow Bay.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203- 205. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203. High surf advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203-205. Coastal flood warning until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz205. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Monday for amz150-152-154. Small craft advisory from 2 pm Friday to 8 pm EDT Monday for amz156-158.
