A cold front will move through the area on Saturday and stall offshore. A coastal trough or coastal low may then develop along the stalled front early next week.
Through today As of 0300 Thursday, In the wake of the departing low, weakening winds and clearing skies are expected to support a fog and low stratus risk across parts of the area, especially inland where we have the best chance of calm conditions. The latest probabilistic guidance suggests the risk of dense, impactful fog is LOW (<=20% chance), but the pattern appears supportive of sinking stratus through the overnight. Kept patchy fog mentions for early morning. Mints fall into the upper 50s to low 60s where clouds clear. This should be the coolest night of the next week as a warming trend begins after tonight.
Weakness in local pressure gradient with low moving away and weak high pressure building in behind the SFC trough that crossed through yesterday/last night leads to light and variable winds through the day with the Crystal Coast seabreeze circulation becoming the dominant wind feature in the afternoon. Upper level clouds traveling through the weak jet of the upward leg of the trough aloft near the coast. Diurnal Cu field develops by the afternoon. Maxts mid 80s SWern inland zones, mid to upper 70s beaches and NEern zones.
Tonight As of 0300 Thursday, Bit of a col locally as we lie underneath departing jet aloft, ridging over Great Lakes, and locally high SFC pressure. This will lead to calming winds and clearing skies. Low level moisture advected in off the Atlantic by the afternoon's seabreeze will open door for fog development due to the rad cooling and calm winds. Expect fog to show up first along the WHY17 corridor and then expand through the overnight. Mints in low to mid 60s most, upper 60s to low 70s beaches.
Friday through Wednesday As of 200 AM Thursday,
Key Messages
- Warmer weather pattern to close out the work week
- Unsettled weather potentially returns late in the weekend or next week
Weak upper level troughing is forecast to reside over the Southern Appalachians through Saturday, then get kicked out to the east on Sunday as a more substantial trough develops over the central U.S. Multiple shortwaves are then forecast to eject out of that trough and move across the Southeast U.S. Next week. Guidance is in very good agreement through this weekend, then begins to show substantial differences next week.
At the surface, high pressure overhead on Friday will shift east by Saturday as a more notable high builds in across New England. Meanwhile, low pressure is forecast to develop offshore well to the south of ENC by this weekend. The tightening gradient between the high to the north and the low to the south will setup a modestly strong northeasterly flow regime once again across the Carolinas. Within this regime, temperatures are expected to take a brief drop back down after the very warm temperatures on Friday.
Late in the weekend and into early next week, guidance continues to suggest the potential for low pressure to the south to shift north in the general direction of ENC. While the signal for a coastal low is still present in the latest guidance, there has been a notably weaker trend seen. The pattern still bears watching, but for now at least, the trend has been towards a weaker low to move through. In fact, it may be more of an inland-advancing coastal trough vs a weak coastal low. Either way, an increase in moisture and instability overlapped with the trough or low should support a modest increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially along the coast.
Towards the middle of next week, medium range guidance differs substantially. The point of contention appears to be focused around the development, and evolution, of a cutoff low east of the Great Plains. This type of pattern typically carries lower predictability at longer ranges. For now, then, a blended guidance approach suggests warming temperatures and a continued potential for unsettled weather.
07z Thursday through Monday Through Thursday As of 0115 Thursday, Low pressure that has been over SE VA continues to weaken while quickly lifting to the NE. Low stratus is expected to develop after midnight bringing IFR/LIFR flight cats across most rtes. Href probs highest (60-80%) north of Highway 70, tapering down from 50 to 20% across southern sections of the FA. Cigs will lift to MVFR mid- morning with VFR expected to return by the afternoon. Winds will be light throughout the TAF period. Thursday night holds greater potential for fog development in light/calm winds and clearing skies.
Thursday night through Sunday As of 200 AM Thursday,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail Friday and Saturday. The risk of sub VFR conditions may then gradually increase Sunday into early next week as a coastal trough or weak coastal low offshore migrates towards the coast with better moisture, lift, and instability. This setup also carries a risk of scattered SHRA and possibly a few TSRA (especially for coastal areas).
Through tonight As of 0315 Thursday, Predominantly W/NWerly winds 5-10G15kt through the overnight relaxing through the near term as low departs to NE. Winds for coastal waters S of Lookout become Serly by afternoon as seabreeze circulation takes hold, but still remain AoB 12kt. Light and variable winds tonight across the board. As a result, seas continue to lay down through the period with buoy obs currently showing 2-4ft out of the NE @ 9-10sec with 1-2ft wind chop mixed in over the top. Swell from NE continues to weaken tonight with seas becoming 2-3ft everywhere by sunset and continuing to ease through the overnight.
Friday through Sunday As of 200 AM Thursday,
Key Messages
- Monitoring potential for SCA conditions this weekend into early next week
High pressure overhead on Friday will shift east on Saturday as low pressure develops well to the south of the ENC waters. The tightening gradient between this low and strong high pressure over New England should lead to building northeasterly winds over the weekend, with the potential for 20-25kt wind gusts. Guidance has backed off on the strength of the developing low to our south, but persistent, and building, northeasterly flow should lead to seas building to 5-8ft, especially by Sunday. It should be noted that the potential exists for a period of 8-10ft seas during this time, especially in the contraflow against the Gulf Stream south of Cape Hatteras.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
