Key MESSAGE 1, Front remains stalled offshore to the S of the FA. Convection overnight has been blossoming along the boundary, and this will likely continue through the day today. Surface flow becomes more onshore latter half of the day with the seabreeze, kicking off a period of increasing moisture and instability tomorrow onwards across the Southeast U.S. Coastline with a modest uptick of shower and thunderstorm coverage as a wave of low pressure meandering over GA along the boundary nudges the front toward the coast after sunset tonight. Expecting a dry day for most of the area though a generous 15-20% PoP has been kept from previous forecast iterations in typical seabreeze convergence zones over the Albemarle Peninsula and Crystal Coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The low pressure currently over SECONUS is forecast to lift along the stalled front in the early morning hours THU, pushing the boundary north toward, and perhaps over, the ENC coast, providing a better focal point for more widespread coverage of showers and storms ahead of a second front which will cross the area by Sat. Given the multiple days of onshore flow, PWATs do return back closer to 2" tomorrow onwards. With enough instability in place, and subtly increasing amounts of shear as trough aloft over CAN digs toward the Great Lakes, a few isolated stronger storms aren't completely out of the question for FRI. In addition to this, any shower or thunderstorm that develops will be an efficient rainmaker, potentially bringing torrential rainfall and a low end risk for flash flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas. As such, SPC has added a Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5) of severe tstorms and WPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk (lvl 2/5) of excessive rainfall for FRI while the FA is warm sectored with the front that has been offshore then being stalled along or near the AppMts. Rain continues into the weekend when a front pushed by the digging trough from the Great Lakes will cross the FA on SAT. Temps through the weekend remain seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 3, SFC high pressure builds back in behind SAT's front on SUN with ridging aloft in place over SECONUS early next week. This will bringing a return to more climatological precip chances along the seabreeze as well as rising temperatures, low 90s/mid 70s splits and MaxAppTs in excess of 100deg from TUES onward next week.
12z Wednesday through Sunday # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #
VFR flight cats currently though patch fog is in place over SWern zones. Have kept a courtesy 1hr tempo group for MVFR fog over OAJ. Vfr conditions are forecast to remain in place through the day today with light SEerly breeze developing. Overnight, stalled front offshore inches toward the coast as weak low pressure travels Nward from GA. In the early morning hours, this wave will be working through the FA over coastal zones, increasing rain chances 6z onwards THU. Have included VCSH mention and PROB30 groups for OAJ and EWN in this timeframe.
Outlook: Front gets pulled back inland late WED night/early THU into Friday with increasing shower/storm coverage possible ahead of another front to cross the FA SAT.
Benign boating conditions continue with light Eerly early becoming more SEerly to around 10-12kt in the afternoon. Stalled front remains S of our waters where convection has been occurring through the overnight hours. This boundary will begin slowly lift toward area waters and eventually toward the coast later tonight. Seas remain at 2-4 ft through this evening. Best chances for rain will be over the waters south of Cape Hatteras.
Outlook: Southerly flow remains in place from Wed night into the end of the week. Winds will increase slightly on Thurs night into Fri with the approach of a cold front closer to 10-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts. Winds then ease for the weekend as high pressure begins to build in from the north and west behind the front on SUN. This brings a low end chance of SCA conditions mainly along the coastal waters, but confidence is too low for SCA headlines currently. Seas should generally hold around 2-4ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft on Fri. The risk of thunderstorms will be elevated on Thurs, Fri, and Sat as a wave of low pressure pushes a stalled boundary north back toward the coast with another front crossing the area Sat.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
