A cold front tracks south across the region and stalls just offshore on Saturday. An area of low pressure will lift NE along the front Sunday bringing rain across the region. High pressure briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold front with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the work week.
Until 6 pm this evening As of 745 AM Saturday, Fog is starting to thin out, so the dense fog advisories for duplin and onslow counties has been cancelled. Scattered showers and thunderstorms that went through southern counties will be moving offshore shortly.
Previous Discussion, As of 445 AM Saturday, Low stratus is over much of the area, and fog continues building through much of the CWA. Sps is currently out until 5:15AM, and will likely need to be extended or upgraded to a DFA shortly. Thunderstorms approaching Duplin County have quickly weakened, bringing scattered light to moderate showers. Fog is expected to become more dense over the next 2-3 hours, lifting from increased mixing after sunrise, albeit a bit delayed with the low cloud cover persisting. Temps are in the low 60s for inland ENC, and upper 60s for beaches, except for NOBX which has temps in the mid 50s from the northerly flow.
cold front sweeps southwards across ENC Sat afternoon shifting the winds behind this front to a NE'rly direction. Scattered showers moving through southern portions of the CWA will be quickly pushing out to sea Sat morning. Coastal Plain should remain dry in the afternoon, while a few showers and isolated thunderstorms pop up along the OBX and Crystal Coast as the front makes its way through. Temps get into the mid to upper 70s inland and into the mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX on Sat.
6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday As of 530 AM Saturday, Lows in the mid to upper 50s CWA wide, with calm winds and increasing sky cover ahead of a shortwave. Cam guidance showing the greatest potential for isolated showers along and east of hwy 17 ahead of the shortwave. Because of the low coverage potential, stuck with Schc for much of the region, becoming Chc for extreme SE portions.
Sunday through Friday As of 415 AM Saturday, Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS through the long term bring a progressive pattern with several frontal passages, including an area of low pressure lifting off the coast Sunday and Sunday night.
Sunday through Monday, Shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday and Sunday night with favorable jet dynamics over the area. Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and lift along the coast through Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday. Widespread rain to develop across the area Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts expected around a half to one inch with highest amounts occuring along the coast. Ne winds, clouds and rain will keep cooler temps across the area with highs expected in the low to mid 60s. The upper trough will push across the region Monday but guidance continues to trend southward and weaker with dry conditions prevailing. Below normal temps continue on Monday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Tuesday through Friday, High pressure builds into the area Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across the area bringing the chance for a few showers, though moisture appears to be limited with this system and will keep PoPs below mentionable. High pressure builds back into the area on Thursday and Friday with dry conditions prevailing. A warming trend will develop Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s, and a few upper 70s possible Wednesday. Temps cool back to the low to mid 70s Thursday with a few degrees of warming on Friday.
12z Saturday through Wednesday Through tonight As of 730 AM Saturday, LIFR ceilings dominate, and IFR to MVFR fog continues for all terminals. Fog is starting to lift as of 730 AM. Ceilings then begin to improve to MVFR/VFR briefly in the afternoon Saturday. Ceilings drop again to sub-VFR as we get into the evening/nighttime hours ahead of the shortwave bringing rain through Sunday. Light winds persist across the region through the period. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along hwy 17 and the Crystal Coast in the afternoon Saturday along a sea breeze.
Sunday through Wednesday As of 345 AM Saturday, Low pressure passes along the offshore front Sunday through Sunday night bringing widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes. Improving conditions will ensue on Monday with pred VFR through Wednesday.
Through Saturday night As of 740 AM Saturday, Pamlico Sound was added to the Marine Dense Fog Advisory, the DF.Y for waters off the Crystal Coast has been cancelled.
Previous Discussion, As of 538 AM Saturday, Foggy conditions for the Neuse/Pamlico Rivers and Coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Surf City have resulted in a Marine Dense Fog Advisory this morning. Outside of the fog, quiet marine conditions, with seas 3-5ft and winds light out of the south, backing as you go north with a sfc low approaching. After fog deteriorates this morning, winds shift to becoming northerly and strengthen behind a cold front moving south this afternoon. Current expectation is for gusts to remain below 25 kts, so a SCA will not be needed for this surge in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms along the sea breeze in the afternoon should remain away from coastal waters, cutting through the rivers and sounds. Saturday night winds are northeasterly10-15kts, and seas are predominantly 2-4 ft, with some 5 footers possible over the gulf stream.
Sunday through Wednesday As of 345 AM Saturday, A frontal boundary will be stalled offshore Sunday with a deepening area of low pressure lifting along the front Sunday into Sunday night. Ne winds around 15-20 kt Sunday morning will increase up to 25 kt south of Oregon Inlet including the Pamlico Sound in the afternoon through Sunday night. Seas will build to 4-8 ft across the waters south of Oregon Inlet in response, highest across the outer central waters. Seas up to 6 ft and gusts up to 25 kt will linger in this area Monday night. Ne winds around 15 kt or less Tuesday shifts to SW 10 kt or less Tuesday night, then increases to 10-15 kt Wednesday in advance of another cold front. Seas around 3-5 ft persist Tuesday and Wednesday.
Nc, beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz203-205. Marine, dense fog advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for amz135>137. Small craft advisory from 11 am Sunday to 5 am EDT Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 11 am Sunday to 5 am EDT Tuesday for amz152-154-156-158.
