Key MESSAGE 1, A weak SFC low slowly lifting NE along the front from Sern NC will nudge the boundary from the coast toward the I95 corridor. Overall pre- storm environment will be similar to yesterday: ample instability, support aloft with multiple shortwaves rounding the base of the stout trough aloft over NECONUS, and additional bump in effective shear in the lower levels thanks to the development of the low to SW. This may provide a marginally better environment for supercell development. If the front does get pulled west as some HiRes solutions exist, the convective risk will also follow suit. The greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms remains E of HWY 17 with damaging winds remaining the primary threat, with hail possible in supercells. Because of this, SPC has the bulk of the area in some sort of Severe Thunderstorm Risk, coastal zones are under a Slight Risk (lvl 2/5) with Coastal Plain counties under a Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5). Some thunderstorms will enter coastal plain counties early this morning and waning through the morning hours. This afternoon, chances increased quickly over the coast and slowly progressing inland through the afternoon into the evening. The bulk of convection is expected to dissipate after sunset, especially after midnight when the last shortwave pushes off the coast and SFC low departing to the NE, leading to a less conducive flow pattern through the column.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Guidance slowly coming into better agreement with a drier period for TUE and WED, with the low expected to be somewhere offshore near the NC/VA border. However, iso storms will still be possible over Crystal Coast seabreeze locales. Wed, SFC flow becomes more onshore kicking off a period of increasing moisture and instability across the Southeast U.S. Coastline with the potential for another round of unsettled weather for late-week.
06z Monday through Friday # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #
VFR flight cats at issuance of TAFs, but confidence of seeing subVFR in the early morning hours has increased from previous TAF cycles. Light winds and clear skies will be present overnight save for debris clouds along the immediate coast. Guidance shows best chances for subVFR with some stratus and fog potential spreading over the area from the SW. Have included prevailing MVFR with TEMPO IFR for OAJ. Lower confidence for EWN so only have a TEMPO MVFR group here. Continue mention of prob30 groups for TSRA for all TAF sites. Inland sites may see some early morning showers/storms moving W to E. Afternoon convection is expected to develop around the coastal sites and then pushing inland into the evening.
Outlook: A front will remain over the area through at least Tuesday morning, when a low traveling along the boundary will finally be N of the FA, dragging the front offshore. This would up the TSRA risk some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. A risk of sub- VFR conditions would accompany any TSRA risk as well.
A cold front remains stalled over ENC today, but will get shunted toward the Coastal Plain this afternoon as a weak area of low pressure travels along it. Periods of thunderstorms expected to persist overnight and early morning. Varying wind directions are expected as the pair of lows move through, but neither low looks all that strong.
For the coastal waters, seas of 2-3 ft are expected through today.
Outlook: Winds will become Nerly for a brief time on Tuesday before southerly flow returns by the middle of the week, and lasting into the end of the week. Seas should generally hold around 2-3ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft late in the week. The risk of thunderstorms may decrease some Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing again later in the week.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
