Key MESSAGE 1, Slowly but surely fog is returning to ENC early this morning, as we remain under light southerly flow with high pressure offshore. Fog will become most widespread along the coast this morning, potentially lingering into the afternoon hours before dissipating.
A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight, and fog could extend inland from the coast at times.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some afternoons, especially today through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast.
A weak front will enter the Carolinas Sunday and hang around through Monday, leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will keep temps a couple of degrees cooler, but still well above normal. After this front lifts back to the north, potentially even warmer conditions are likely to develop by mid next week ahead of a large frontal system.
12z Friday through Tuesday Biggest change has been the lack of widespread fog overnight as SW'rly winds remained elevated enough to keep the area well mixed. Either way, have seen dense fog along the Crystal Coast, OBX, and across Onslow county (OAJ terminal) this morning with LIFR/IFR visibility noted here. Elsewhere (ISO/PGV/EWN) widespread low stratus is noted bringing fairly widespread LIFR/IFR ceilings across the rest of ENC this morning. Even with the lack of more widespread fog, the general trend remains as we expect ceilings and vis to lift over the next few hours to VFR (between 14-16Z). Once conditions become VFR, they will remain VFR into tonight before yet another round of LIFR/IFR ceilings/vis impact the region. Timing for this is very similar to last nights, occuring generally around or just after midnight and persisting into Sat morning. Winds will remain southwesterly at 5-15kt across much of the area into Fri night. The lone exception will be across the NOBX near KFFA where a backdoor cold front may shift winds to more of an E-NE direction.
Outlook: A cold front will move into the area on Sunday, leading to a change in the weather pattern, but also bringing with it an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. This risk may linger into early next week.
Sea FOG: Slowly but surely sea fog is returning to the NC coastal waters early this morning, as we remain under light southerly flow with high pressure offshore. Fog will become most widespread along the coast this morning, potentially lingering into the afternoon hours before dissipating.
A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight.
WINDS/SEAS: Pleasant boating conditions are expected (outside of fog) for the next couple of days with high pressure offshore. Winds will be SSW/SW at 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft.
Outlook: The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine area. A stronger front may cross the region in the middle of next week, although significant timing and intensity differences remain.
Nc, dense fog advisory until 9 am EST this morning for ncz195-196- 198-199-204-205. Marine, dense fog advisory until 9 am EST this morning for amz135-152- 154-156-158.
