Key MESSAGE 1, A weak shortwave is moving through the region early this morning, bringing some isolated to scattered showers, with better thunderstorm chances along the coast.
Another shortwave looks to impact the area ahead of an incoming backdoor cold front this afternoon and evening. Cams suggest a MCS moving into the region along the shortwave in the late afternoon and evening hours in addition to any sea breeze convection developing in the afternoon. With better upper level support compared to Saturday, this event has a shot at bringing some damaging winds as well. The 00Z RRFS suggests coverage similar to Saturday, where a cluster of storms initiate along the coastal plane, then congeal to form a more linear structure as it pushes east with the shortwave. Later on, a back door cold front looks to move through overnight Sunday. Precip with the shortwave out ahead of it will likely cap the atmosphere, bringing a lower thunderstorm risk along the front. Spc has us in a marginal (1/5) risk of severe weather today with wind the primary concern.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A WAA regime will persist through today with a high pressure centered offshore bringing continued SW winds. Latest guidance continues to show low level thicknesses generally around 1410-1425m which support highs into the low to mid 90s today. With temps in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s heat indices will likely peak around 95-103 today. Will note, given cloudcover and precip chances today it looks like we may remain lower than heat advisory criteria so currently not anticipating any heat headlines this weekend. With lows only getting into the 70s this morning and tonight there wont be much relief from the heat. If you have any extended plans outdoors this weekend make sure to stay properly hydrated and take proper precautions when outside.
KEY MESSAGE 3, No significant changes to the extended forecast as an omega block sets up across the Eastern CONUS with anomalous ridging persisting across the the midwest and eastern US next week. This will bring the potential for an extended period of dangerous heat to ENC starting around Thurs next week and continuing into the July 4th weekend. Nws probabilistic Heat Risk values of reaching major heat risk levels or higher are currently sitting at about, 60-80% on Thurs, and 80-90% on Fri/Sat which is fairly notable given the higher end values this far out. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside later next week should continue to monitor the forecast trends as this potential heat wave would have impacts on the holiday weekend.
06z Sunday through Thursday A period of light to calm winds early this morning brings some shallow fog and low stratus concerns until about 14Z. Later on, another round of TSRA is expected this afternoon and evening as yet another upper level disturbance moves through. Once again, there will be a risk of 30- 50kt wind gusts with any TSRA that develops today, as well as brief reductions in VIS to IFR/LIFR. Tsra threat moves offshore by 5Z Monday, with a generally rain free forecast for the remainder of the night. We will have to keep an eye on fog/low stratus behind Sunday night's convection.
Outlook (Mon through Thu): Showers and storms could be ongoing in the evening, with periods of sub-VFR. The front will move through Sun night, with conditions improving as N-NE develops. Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible each morning.
A low-end thunderstorm risk may develop early this morning as another upper level wave moves through the area.
25kt winds have started up again, most notably in the Pamlico Sound (where a MWS is in effect) and coastal waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout, where a SCA remains in effect. Winds are expected to lessen
Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Sunday. Any storm that develops would bring a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas, as well as frequent and dangerous lightning.
Outlook (Sun night through Wed): Gulf stream showers and thunderstorms possible through Sun evening with the shortwave and back door cold front. Winds will eventually shift from the SW to the NE on Sun night and Mon from N to S behind the aforementioned front. Ne winds then persist behind the cold front Tue into midweek.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for amz154- 156.
