Key MESSAGE 1, Storms have shifted offshore and no longer pose any immediate threat to land. Convective Inhibition has set up over much of ENC, and this keeps any additional storm formation unlikely over land.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Guidance continues to suggest tomorrow will be primarily dry with only an isolated shower or storm possible on area breezes in the afternoon. On Wednesday, surface flow becomes more onshore kicking off a period of increasing moisture and instability across the Southeast U.S. Coastline with a modest uptick of shower and thunderstorm coverage. Another wave of low pressure is forecast to lift along the offshore frontal boundary Thursday into Friday, pulling it back towards the coast and providing a better focal point for more widespread coverage of showers and storms into the weekend.
00z Tuesday through Saturday # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- #
Storms have pushed offshore and no longer pose a threat to terminals. Clearing skies and light winds will once again set the stage for a localized low stratus and fog threat early Tues AM, especially for EWN and OAJ, who saw rainfall this afternoon and evening.
Drier conditions expected with light northwesterly winds tomorrow as front sits just offshore.
Outlook: Modest uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage Wednesday in increasingly moist SW flow. Front gets pulled back inland Thursday into Friday with even more widespread shower/storm coverage possible.
Benign boating conditions expected through much of the week as frontal boundary meanders across the region, being pulled back and forth by weak waves of low pressure progressing along it. Quiet conditions ongoing today with seas around 2-3 feet with a 12-13 second period peeking through wind chop, while winds are light and variable at generally 5 kt or less. Little change expected in these conditions today, although thunderstorm risk will increase this afternoon and evening as activity gets kicked up along the aforementioned frontal boundary. Stronger storms could produce winds in excess of 50 kt and also produce hail.
Outlook: Winds will become Nerly for a brief time on Tuesday before southerly flow returns by the middle of the week, and lasting into the end of the week. Seas should generally hold around 2-3ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft late in the week. The risk of thunderstorms may decrease some Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing again later in the week.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
