Key MESSAGE 1, The latest surface analysis this morning shows a stationary area of low pressure near Cape Lookout. A stationary frontal boundary extends northeast up to Cape Hatteras, then turns southeast out into the Atlantic. A subtle upper level shortwave is forecast to cross the Carolinas later today and tonight which should act to lift the low and front north across the inner/Outer Banks of ENC this afternoon and evening. While significant deepening of the low is not anticipated, there may be just enough low-level turning along the track of the low and warm front to support an area of marginal 0-1km SRH of around 75-100 m2/s2. Meanwhile, SBCAPE of 1000- 2000j/kg and seasonably strong deep layer shear of 40kt+ should be more than supportive of thunderstorm organization. Guidance is mixed on if deep convection will develop. However, given the environment, any deep convection that manages to develop should have the potential to become supercellular in nature with an accompanying wind, hail, and tornado risk. Given the marginal nature of the environment for tornadoes, any tornado that were to develop should be weak/short-lived. This is definitely not a slam-dunk setup, but it's worth monitoring.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The next best chance for stronger storms remains Thursday night into Friday ahead of a stronger front where deeper shear will likely be present along with strong instability as temperatures soar back into the 90s and humidity remains oppressive. Like previous days, better kinematics and thus higher risk of organized convection will likely be to our north in the Mid- Atlantic. Medium- range AI NWP guidance still highlights much of the Carolinas for a severe risk during this period. The primary threat risk is damaging winds, but other hazards remain on the table.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Relatively cooler temperatures will prevail again today with more overcast skies and ENC on the cool side of the frontal boundary. This reprieve will end tomorrow as the boundary lifts northward tonight into Wednesday. As alluded earlier, increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the late-week front will boost low- level thicknesses and kick temperatures into the mid to upper 90s by Thursday. Paired with Tds in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will climb back to around 105+. The passing front may cool things down briefly for the weekend, but medium range guidance suggests excessive heat will remain a concern starting next week.
13z Tuesday through Saturday VFR conditions in place this morning for all TAF terminals under a thick cirrus deck, while a small sliver of MVFR cigs continues to plague MRH and vicinity. Primary focus today will be a wave of low pressure expected to migrate along a stalled frontal boundary to our south. This low will be the focus for a modest shower and iso thunderstorm threat. Starting to see some returns on radar across SC and far southeastern NC but very few obs are reporting precipitation, strengthening idea that this morning will see more virga than VCSH. Higher confidence remains in a thunderstorm threat, especially for terminals from EWN to the north and east with convergence ahead of the approaching surface low. T-storm threat will be diurnal but could see some on-and-off showers overnight as a surface trough quickly traverses the region. Confidence is higher in more widespread low stratus pre-dawn Wed, and added low MVFR cigs this cycle. Would not be surprised to see some periods of IFR, especially for sites south and west of EWN.
Outlook: Iso shower and thunderstorm risk will extend into Wednesday. More widespread convective threat returns Thursday night and especially Friday with stronger front. Overnight fog and stratus threat possible each morning. Weekend is trending drier and more quiet with predominant VFR expected.
Regional observations show a stalled frontal boundary sitting over Onslow Bay, with easterly winds of 5-10 kt to its north and around 10 kt to its south. Main focus today will be a weak wave of low pressure migrating along the frontal boundary, pulling it north through the day and ushering in more predominant southwesterly winds after sunset. A brief but strong surge of winds is possible overnight for outer portions of Onslow Bay in the wake of the passing low, with SCA conditions possible beyond 20 nm. This will likely boost seas here briefly to around 6 feet. Elsewhere, seas will build up to 3-5 feet south of Cape Hatteras, 2-4 feet north.
Outlook (Wed through Sat): Periodic nocturnal and early morning risk of showers and thunderstorms is possible each weeknight, although most likely odds will be Thursday night into Friday ahead of stronger front approaching area waters. This front will also be the next focus of widespread SCA conditions with an increasing risk of Gales across the outer waters.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
