Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week behind the cold front continuing to push offshore. Temps will gradually warm through the week as heights build. By mid to late week highs will again be back into the 80s for most of the area. A backdoor front will eventually cross the FA THU, but at this time just looks to be a wind shift with the column ahead of, along, and near the front being almost completely devoid of moisture.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A stronger cold front will push through the area Friday night, with strong high pressure building in for the weekend. Front looks moisture starved, but could bring sct shower chances. Cooler and drier airmass will build into the region this weekend, feeling like fall, with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s/50s. N-NW winds continue to trend a bit stronger behind the front, which could bring dangerous marine conditions along with the potential for coastal impacts for vulnerable locations along OBX. Though too soon for any specifics.
18z Monday through Saturday VFR flight cats present across all TAF sites, though lower cloud decks and some CIGs at MVFR levels will persist across NOBX into this evening. Nw winds will gust 15-20 kt this afternoon. Patchy inland fog will be possible overnight into early Tue morning. Guidance is not sold on this but clear skies and winds decoupling after sunset will allow for stout radiational cooling which could lead to saturation in the lowest levels evident in the 18Z Tds comparable to TUE morning's lows. Question is will be if today's sunshine is enough to completely dry out the rain received over the weekend. Have included MVFR VIS for all TAF sites in the early morning with tempo IFR groups for EWN/OAJ with their weekend rainfall totals dwarfing inland sites.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): Pred VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure builds in.
Latest obs show NW winds generally 15-20 with some gusts<25kt with seas 4 to 6ft. Cold front will continue to push offshore. Winds grad diminish and veer through the day. N-NE winds will continue to diminish to 5-15 kt tonight with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft allowing remaining SCAs for coastal waters N of Ocracoke Inlet to expire around or just after sunset.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): High pres builds in Tue through the remainder of the week with pleasant boating conditions expected. Another front will push through the waters later in the week, likely Thursday, then a stronger front Friday night. Strong N-NNW winds expected behind the second front this weekend, and will likely see SCA conditions with potential for Gales across coastal waters N of Cape Hatt.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz150. Small craft advisory until 7 pm EDT this evening for amz152- 154.
