Key MESSAGE 1, Convection ongoing across portions of the area early this morning, extending from the Northern Outer Banks down through Jacksonville. Iso strong to severe storms with gusty winds will be possible through the next hour or so, but weakening trend expected with area fairly worked over and developing nocturnal CIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Cold front will push offshore early this morning, with sfc high pressure building in from the west while troughing continues aloft. This will keep temps seasonable and mostly dry through late week. Iso showers/storms possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly across the northern portions of the area as shortwave rotates through the base of the upper trough. The next frontal system will impact the area this weekend into early next week, with increasing precip chances.
06z Wednesday through Sunday VFR conditions across the terminals early this morning. Vfr expected to prevail, with tempo sub-VFR at OAJ for another hour or so. Front will move through early this morning, with SW winds becoming NW.
Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Much drier behind the fropa through the end of the week as high pres rebuilds. Periods of early morning fog and/or stratus possible each night.
Latest obs show W-SW winds 15-25kt gusting 20-30kt across coastal waters and PamSound and 10-20 kt across inside waters, with seas 3-6 ft. The front will push through the waters this morning, with winds becoming W-NW 10-15 kt. Scas continue for the next few hours ahead of the front. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue across the waters, bulk of activity now between Oregon Inlet and Cape Lookout. Convection will continue to push eastward over the next few hours.
Outlook: Light to moderate NW winds continue Thu with 2-4 ft seas. Flow becomes more southerly late Fri and Fri night.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 5 am EDT early this morning for amz131-135-137-230-231. Small craft advisory until 6 am EDT early this morning for amz152-154-156-158.
