Key MESSAGE 1, This afternoon, a stalled front stretches southwest along the coast of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, the MCV and an associated surface low that brought all of the rain to ENC earlier today is moving off the coast of ENC. Perhaps a bit of subsidence in the wake of that feature, plus reduced forcing, appears to be the reason for an overall lack of convection at this time. The one exception is along the Crystal Coast where low-level convergence is being maximized along the stalled front, supporting ongoing areas of moderate to heavy rain and a few thunderstorms.
The Crystal Coast convection should persist through at least sunset, but may wane some with the loss of daytime heating. Later tonight, the next shortwave to ride along the stalled front will encroach on the area. Guidance suggests the increased forcing amid a very moist airmass should support a renewed uptick in convective coverage and intensity, and guidance now shows this lasting through much of the day Saturday. Ensemble guidance differ on the placement of the heaviest rain, but there is a pretty solid signal for another 1-3" for much of ENC through Saturday afternoon, with a reasonable worst case of another 4-8" where rainfall rates are the most persistent/intense. Given uncertainty in the placement of the heaviest rain, and given how saturated parts of the area are, and how sensitive soils may now be, the Flood Watch has been extended out through 8pm Saturday for the entire area. Within the watch area, there will continue to be a risk of minor/nuisance flooding, but with a continued risk of a few instances of flash flooding. Additionally, we've received some reports of trees coming down in the absence of much wind, and this is likely due to saturated soils, not strong winds. This may continue to be a risk, especially for areas that have seen the most rainfall over the past 24-36 hours.
Lastly, right along the front there may continue to be just enough overlap of shear and instability to support a few weakly rotating updrafts with a gusty wind and weak tornado potential. The risk of severe weather looks LOW, but isn't zero.
KEY MESSAGE 2, With Sunday and Monday trending drier with the lingering front finally getting carried offshore, focus then turns to another front approaching the eastern CONUS next mid- week. This boundary appears weaker and more progressive than our current boundary but will still provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Ahead of the boundary, strengthening southwesterly flow and building low-level thicknesses will bring a return of oppressive heat with at least a couple days of heat indices approaching or exceeding 105F possible.
00z Saturday through Wednesday A break in widespread shra this evening, though ocnl IFR will linger in low stratus. Shra redevelop overnight, with IFR or even LIFR expected. The poor flying conditions will last through Saturday as frontal inversion remains in place. Bands of heavier rain possible at times and will lower the vsby to 1-2 miles at times.
Outlook (Saturday night through Wednesday): The stalled front is forecast to finally shift south of ENC from north to south Saturday night with gradually improving aviation conditions by Sunday. Next chance of rain Tue night into Wed.
Cold front is currently stalled over Onslow Bay this morning with regional observations showing winds at around 10 kt or less. Gradient will remain relaxed around the front as it moves little through today, perhaps lifting northward slightly later tonight. Winds and seas will remain safely below SCA through the period but multiple rounds of widespread rain and the occasional thunderstorm will continue to plague area waters into Saturday morning.
Outlook: A stalled front will finally shift offshore by Saturday night, with moderate northerly winds developing for all waters by Sunday. The risk of thunderstorms is expected to decrease on Sunday as well. A more typical summertime wind and sea pattern then returns next week.
Nc, flood watch through Saturday evening for ncz029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203. Marine, none.
