Key MESSAGE 1, A nice summer afternoon today as temps have gotten into the 80s. Seabreeze is currently making its way inland as of this update without much fanfare besides a wind shift from E to SE. Onshore flow has allowed for continued moisture return today with PWATs nearing 1.5" this afternoon, with PWATs forecast to continue to increase through tonight. High pressure ridging overhead will gradually push offshore this afternoon while a wave of low pressure located along a stalled boundary offshore will lift NE'wards away from the area. Outside of some isolated showers and thunderstorms across our coastal waters and near Core Banks not much impact will be seen from this weak low and front.
As we get into tonight a WAA regime sets up across the area and persists into this weekend as troughing pulls away and high pressure becomes centered offshore. This regime will bring continued W-SW winds and increasing low level thicknesses to ENC. Latest guidance suggests low level thicknesses generally around 1410-1420m which is slightly lower than previously forecast. Regardless, highs this weekend get into the 90s each day which could be near records (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO) though given recent trends this is looking less likely, and given current temp forecast for Sunday have removed this day from the climate section. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s heat indices could be around 100-105 each day. Heat indices of around 100F Friday increase to around 105F Saturday with heat indices once again nearing 100F Sunday. Will note with an increase in precip chances especially Sat/Sun, mentioned in key message 2 below, there is larger than normal uncertainty in explicit heat index values. So while heat advisories are certainly possible Sat/Sun, it is not a given as these values will be highly dependent on thunderstorm timing and coverage. Based on the current forecast and ensemble probs, Saturday looks to be the best chance of needing any heat advisory headlines but will continue to monitor trends. With lows only getting into the 70s each night this weekend there wont be much relief from the heat. If you have any extended plans outdoors this weekend make sure to stay properly hydrated and take proper precautions when outside.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Multiple shortwaves will transit across the Mid- Atlantic this weekend bringing the potential for a few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Strongest shortwave looks to impact the area on Sunday associated with an incoming backdoor cold front which would bring the best chances for precipitation. On Fri we may have multiple focuses for shower and thunderstorm activity with one being along an inland moving seabreeze Fri afternoon and the second coming in from the west Fri evening associated with the incoming weak shortwave. While moisture will be on the increase we will not be at our highest moisture level just yet on Fri so chances are still isolated for showers and thunderstorms (15-20%). Will note while thunderstorm activity looks to remain sub-severe, we could see a few strong downbursts in the strongest storms with gusts up around 40-50 mph possible if they do develop.
As we get into Sat, a slightly stronger shortwave looks to impact the Carolinas with a surface trough setting up across the Coastal Plain. This is forecast to result in slightly more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity Sat afternoon and evening (40-60%). On top of that, with continued SW'rly flow, low level moisture will maximize on Sat/Sun and with ample surface heating MLCAPE values increase to 1000-2000 J/kg Sat afternoon with some guidance suggesting MLCAPE values as high as 1500-3000 J/kg. With deep layer shear also increasing slightly on Sat closer to 25-35 kts there is the potential for a few stronger thunderstorms to develop bringing a threat for downbursts and gusty winds (40-60 mph) within the strongest storms. Spc has introduced the area in a marginal (level 1/5) risk for this threat as well. On top of the increased chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sat, increased chances for precipitation are once again possible on Sun as well (50-70%). Front looks to track from N to S Sun afternoon and evening providing thee focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Once again can't rule out a stronger storm or two especially across the southern OBX and Crystal Coast where the best instability and shear axis will be but for now only expecting sub-severe thunderstorms. Will note given the nature of shower and thunderstorm activity it will not be a washout any of these days with showers and storms likely being hit or miss across the area.
KEY MESSAGE 3, No significant changes to the extended forecast as an omega block sets up across the Eastern CONUS with anomalous ridging persisting across the the midwest and eastern US next week. This will bring the potential for an extended period of hazardous heat to ENC starting around Wed next week and continuing into the July 4th weekend. Gefs and EPS probs of high temps > 100F are generally around 20-40%% for inland locales during this time period. Nws probabilistic Heat Risk values of reaching major heat risk levels or higher are currently sitting at about 30-50% on Wed, 50-70% on Thurs, and 60-80% on Fri/Sat which is fairly notable given the higher end values this far out. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside later next week should continue to monitor the forecast trends as this potential heat wave would have impacts on the holiday weekend. Cpc has highlighted the Carolinas in a high risk of extreme heat July 2-4.
18z Thursday through Tuesday VFR conditions continue across ENC this afternoon with just some diurnal CU noted at 5-6 kft. Coastal trough with a weak wave of low pressure will continue to pull away from the area tonight allowing for light S'rly winds to overspread the region with winds eventually becoming light and variable to calm later tonight across ENC. With skies once again forecast to become clear tonight there will be a low end threat for some patchy ground fog across the CWA. For now have capped vis at 6 SM to cover this threat given similar environment and the fact that some patchy ground fog briefly popped up last night. Any leftover fog would be quick to dissipate by sunrise . As we get into Fri morning winds once again become S'rly at 5-10 kts under mo clear skies.
Outlook (Fri night through Tue): Could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze Sat afternoon bringing a brief period of sub-VFR conditions to any area impacted by this activity. A front then tracks across the area on Sun bringing a bigger threat at sub-VFR conditions. However, by Mon VFR conditions return and persist into Tue.
Outside of ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity across the coastal waters near the Core Banks rather benign boating conditions are noted across ENC as E-SE winds at 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts are noted as a weak coastal trough and wave of low pressure gradually depart the area. Expect winds to gradually turn to the SW tonight at 5-10 kts and increase closer to 10-15 kts Fri afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas generally remain around 1-3 ft as well into Fri night given the lighter winds. Will see a chance at some isolated to widely scattered showers and storms well offshore (30-60 NM) but other than that, boating conditions look to be rather pleasant heading into Fri.
Outlook (Thu night through Mon): Winds remain SW'rly Friday night and increase further to 15-20 kts with occasional gusts to 25 kts, though threat for SCA's remains low so precluded any headline issuance for now. Pinched pressure gradient and thermal gradient Saturday PM brings a risk of SCA conditions to coastal waters with SW gusts around 25 knots. Gulf stream showers and thunderstorms possible Sat/Sun with the shortwave and back door cold front. Winds will eventually shift from the SW to the NE on Sun and Mon from N to S behind the aforementioned front.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
