Key MESSAGE 1, Drier air has infiltrated ENC and is evident by the low/mid 50s TD's in the Coastal Plain, with 60s TD's coast. This will make for a pleasant night tonight as light/calm winds expected and mo clear skies. Dropped temps to lowest guidance, with coolest readings interior zones, as well as areas in vicinity of Croatan and Hoffman forests. Temps in the low/mid 60s, with lows 70s beaches. Remaining dry on Sun, though temps warm up with highs in the low 90s. With TD's remaining low, heat indices will not be an issue with the cont low RH vals.
KEY MESSAGE 2, High pres shifts offshore early next week, while another shortwave swings ewrd acrs the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region. This will drag a cold front into the Southeast, but as is typical this time of year, the front gets hung up inland from the coast. The fcst has trended drier with 20/12Z model suite, and have undercut NBM pops, with only slgt chc (20%) inland, with dry coastal counties. More breezy on Mon as thermal gradient inc in addition to the cold front moving into the Piedmont. Some models indicate some weakening MCS activity arriving into interior ENC Mon evening, but this activity running into dry air should limit chances to no higher than 30% Mon evening.
With dampening shortwave exiting the Mid Atlantic region on Tue with nwrly flow in its wake, have dropped NBM pops to no higher than 30-40% for Tue and Wed, aligning with 20/12Z model output. Cont hot with the offshore flow and highs in the 90s again. Covg of showers/storms may inc for Thu as next shortwave enters the region.
KEY MESSAGE 3, With the return swrly flow, hot and humid conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices, though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with readings in the lower 100s each day early to mid week.
18z Saturday through Thursday VFR mostly SKC through the TAF pd, other than ocnl sct/bkn cirrus streaming through. With high pres overhead, flow will be quite light with winds remaining generally below 5 kt. On Sun, high pres shifts offshore, with strengthening sea breeze in the afternoon bringing wind gusts upwards of around 15 kt in it's wake as it progresses inland.
Outlook (Mon through Thu): Rain and storm chances have decreased for early next week, and have 20% or less for Mon, inc to just 30-40% for Tue and Wed. Chances may inc a bit for Thu as next shortwave trough approaches the region.
Pinned sea breeze will finally progress inland later this afternoon into evening, with onshore flow ensuing. Light winds tonight (5-15 kt) will inc only slightly into Sun afternoon as the sea breeze strengthens, though gusts will remain 20 kt or lower, so no SCA conditions anticipate the rest of the weekend.
Outlook (Mon through Thu): Tightening of the thermal gradient for Mon as conditions become hotter, and weakening cold front approach ctrl NC. The winds have Dec a bit with this forecast update, and widespread 25+ kt winds do not appear likely attm. However, with late afternoon/early evening thermal gradient inc, the areas that typically see these stronger gusts like eastern Pamlico and Croatan/Roanoke sounds, as well as the adjacent nearshore areas of the coastal waters may see ocnl gusts over 25 knots. Seas should remain below 6 ft.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
