Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure over the Great Lakes vicinity continues to gradually slide SE'wards this afternoon, while aloft troughing remains overhead. This will keep enough dry air in place and subsidence aloft to preclude much in the way of a rain threat for the next few days outside of a stray seabreeze shower or two. Have kept the forecast precip free through Sat given lack of confidence in any precip occuring. Otherwise light winds and seasonable temps are forecast into the weekend. Highs today have gotten into the mid 80s and expect highs through Sat to generally remain between the mid 80s to low 90s while lows remain in the mid 60s to low 70s. Will note, with calm winds and mo clear skies tonight and low level moisture from the recent rains sticking around, can't rule out some patchy shallow ground fog tonight, though not expecting much in the way of impacts from this regardless of development.
KEY MESSAGE 2, We get into a more unsettled pattern starting on Sunday as an upper level trough dives SE'wards from the Upper Midwest and tracking into the Tennessee River Valley this weekend with multiple shortwaves then rotating around the trough axis from Sunday into midweek next week. At the surface, a weak warm front will lift north through the area Sat, while associated weakening sfc low approaches the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance has begun keying in on a weak coastal trough lifting north across the region on Sun bringing the first initial round of showers and thunderstorms to the area with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible into mid week next week as the aforementioned boundary likely stalls west of the area and eventually dissipates. Will note given the scattered nature of the activity showers and storms will be hit or miss.
18z Thursday through Tuesday Continued light winds and VFR conditions are forecast this afternoon as high pressure gradually nudges in from the north and west. Expect this to continue through the period. The one caveat to all of this is there is a low end chance for some patchy ground fog overnight tonight (after 06Z) across much of the Coastal Plain including all the TAF sites. Will note, while the HREF AND REFS are not too enthused with ground fog potential tonight, the GLAMP has somewhat higher probs and given the overall setup of light to calm winds, mo clear skies, and a moist near surface layer due to recent rains, I can't completely rule out some patchy ground fog. Given the uncertainty have not mentioned this in any of the TAFs outside of the discussion for now, but will monitor trends this evening and ground fog could be included on TAFs in future cycles. Either way not expecting any significant impacts to operations even if patchy ground fog does develop. After sunrise on Fri regardless of fog potential, expecting VFR conditions and light winds through the day.
Outlook (Friday night through Tuesday): It remains dry with primarily VFR conditions forecast Fri night through Sat as high pres builds overhead and eventually pushes offshore. Periods of early morning fog and/or stratus possible each night. Periods of sub-VFR may develop Sun into early next week with increasing precip chances ahead of an approaching front.
Benign boating conditions are noted across our area waters this afternoon as high pressure continues to build in from the north and west bringing widespread 5-10 kt winds coming from variable directions and 2-4 ft seas to ENC. Expect winds to remain variable in nature through Friday remaining around 5-10 kts while seas across our offshore waters remain around 2-4 ft with dry conditions forecast.
Outlook (Fri night through Tue): Flow becomes more southerly by Fri night and remains around 5-10 kts through Sat with seas persisting at 2-4 ft as high pressure pushes offshore. Southerly winds will strengthen Sunday to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts across portions of the coastal waters ahead of an approaching front. Seas will also respond building closer to 4-6 ft across the offshore waters bringing our next chance at SCA conditions to portions of our waters Sun into Mon. In addition to this, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible as well starting Sun. Conditions then ease Mon into Tue with weak high pressure building overhead and aforementioned front dissipating to the west.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
