Key MESSAGE 1, Heat and humidity will continue to build into ENC from the north and west. The heat will peak today, as low level thicknesses soar to around 1440M, indicative of high temps around 100 for interior areas of ENC, threatening some record highs (see Climate section below). These temps combined with TD's around 70 will push heat indices into the 105-110 degree range, and heat advisory remains in effect for inland ENC and the NOBX. Beach locales will escape the high heat as a seabreeze develops by around noon and begins pushing inland, with heat indices expected to remain in the 100-105 range here.
Have continued to blend NBM with ECS/MAV/MET guide which is closer to reality as NBM cont several degrees to high with Max T's. Td's also running a bit high with NBM, and thus ENC will escape extreme heat warn criteria.
However, as we move into Sun and esp early next week, we will lose the extremely hot temps as bndry layer moistens and TD's creep higher. Despite the lowered temps only in the low/mid 90s, the higher TD's well into the 70s to approaching 80 on the coast by Monday will act to produce oppressively warm overnight lows, and may need to extend heat advisories through the overnight periods as little relief will be seen at night. Afternoon heat indices will cont aoa 105 due to the higher TD's even though max T's will be lower.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Return to a pattern of increased shower and tstorms chances early next week (Mon and Tue). A series of shortwaves, inland troughing, and a very slow moving backdoor front will converge to produce higher than climo coverage of showers and storms each afternoon to early evening, and have increased pops a bit into the 50-70% range, with much needed rain across a good portion of ENC expected.
Beyond Tue, pops return back to climo (20-40%) as more typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with heat indices 100-105 in the forecast.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Aforementioned ridging builds further towards the end of next week and esp next weekend, as ensemble mean hts rise back to above normal, and forecast temps reach the mid to possibly upper 90s, pushing heat indices to potentially aoa 105.
12z Saturday through Wednesday Mainly VFR SKC with only some patchy cirrus and diurnal cu expected. No fog is forecast, as any patchy fog that does develop will quickly dissipate by sunrise. Sea breeze picks winds up and turning them from SW to s during the afternoon hours Sat, but remaining below 10 kt
Outlook (Sun through Wed): Dry weather is expected to prevail with pred VFR conditions through Sunday, but could see patchy fog during the early morning hours. Upper ridge breaks down Monday with shortwave energy bringing good chances for showers and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions Mon into Tue. By Wed, more typical iso to sct showers and storms are expected.
Light winds generally 5-15 kt will cont, with the lightest winds in the morning, inc in the afternoon to evening as thermal gradient tightens, but gusts generally remain at or below 20 kt. Seas cont around 2-3 ft with up to 4 ft possible across the outer zones.
Outlook (Sun through Wed): The Bermuda high remains dominant through the weekend with light winds 5-15 kt and seas around 2-3 ft. Bermuda high pulls offshore late Sunday into Monday with a front slowly dropping south across the Mid- Atlantic serving to tighten gradients a bit and expect winds to increase to around 10-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft, but at this time no SCA conditions are expected through at least mid week.
Nc, heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203. Marine, none.
