Key MESSAGE 1, Winds are light and variable to calm this across the region. Outside of some high clouds that encroach upon ENC early Thursday morning expect mo clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling. This will result in one last night of comfortable lows which get into the mid 60s inland and low 70s along the OBX tonight. Though this will also bring some patchy shallow ground fog especially across areas that saw rain Tuesday. Any fog is forecast to burn off a little after daybreak.
Otherwise we expect any leftover troughing across the region to lift north allowing for W-SW flow to develop aloft bringing a WAA regime back to ENC Friday into this weekend. With low level thicknesses generally around 1420-1430m, highs this weekend get into the mid to upper 90s each day which could be near or break records (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO). Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s heat indices could be around 100-109 each day. Heat indices of around 100F Friday increase to 100-109F Saturday. Sunday temps have a bit more uncertainty, as the timing of a back door cold front and associated cloud cover/precip will play a large role on temps. The current forecast though calls for Heat Indices of 100-105F south of hwy 264. Based on the current forecast and ensemble probs, Saturday looks to be the best chance of needing any heat advisory headlines.
Kept SChc PoPs Friday afternoon (20%), as SW winds bring enough moisture for PWATs in excess of 1.75" and increased instability ahead of the sea breeze.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Not much change in forecast thinking as a second and slightly stronger shortwave and associated surface backdoor cold front look to track across the region on Sunday as a high builds into the Great Lakes region. On top of the increased chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sat, increased chances for precipitation are once again possible on Sun as well. There are some slight timing and strength differences between available guidance during this timeframe for the shortwave and associated front, signs currently point to a more active weekend across ENC with trends generally being diurnal in nature (highest chances for precip in the afternoon and evening). Will note given the nature of shower and thunderstorm activity it will not be a washout either day with showers and storms likely being hit or miss across the area.
KEY MESSAGE 3, An omega block sets up with anomalous ridging persisting across the the midwest and eastern US next week. This will bring near record high temperatures to the region mid to late next week. Gefs and EPS probs of high temps > 100F are greater than 30% for inland locales during this time period. Temperature trends will be worth watching with the event still 6+ days out. Cpc has highlighted the Carolinas in a high risk of extreme heat July 2-4. For those with outdoor plans for the July 4th holiday this will be worth monitoring.
06z Thursday through Monday Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, but could see patchy shallow fog early this morning. Clear skies observed with light to calm winds, allowing for good radiational cooling conditions. With a fairly dry airmass across the region yesterday, temps are not expected to reach cross- over temps tonight, so not expected significant fog development. However, cannot rule out patchy shallow ground fog that will bring limited impacts to the terminals. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate after sunrise today with diurnal cumulus developing through the afternoon. Winds become light to calm again tonight, bringing renewed chances for shallow ground fog.
Outlook (Thurs night through Mon): Primarily VFR conditions expected into Sat as we remain mostly dry though could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze each afternoon Fri/Sat bringing a brief period of sub-VFR conditions to any area impacted by this activity. A front then tracks across the area on Sun bringing a bigger threat at sub-VFR conditions. However, by Mon VFR conditions return.
Benign boating conditions are noted across all area waters this morning as high pressure sits over the region. Latest obs show widespread 5-15 kt E-SE'rly winds across all waters and 2-3 ft seas across the coastal waters within 20 NM and 2-4 ft seas noted further offshore 20-60NM. With high pressure building overhead winds will continue to remain light into Thurs evening while becoming SE'rly, generally 5-10 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts at times. Seas into Thurs evening lower to 2-3 ft across the coastal waters and a foot or less across the inland waters. Will see a chance at some isolated to widely scattered showers and storms well offshore 30-60 NM out but other than that, boating conditions look to be rather pleasant heading into Thurs night. Winds eventually become SW'rly Thurs night into Friday.
Outlook (Thu night through Mon): Winds eventually become SW'rly Thurs night into Friday. Pinched pressure gradient and thermal gradient Friday and Saturday PM brings a risk of SCA conditions to coastal waters with SW gusts around 25 knots. Gulf stream showers and thunderstorms possible Friday morning with greater chances Sat/Sun with the shortwave and back door cold front.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
