Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week behind the cold front continuing to push offshore. Temps will gradually warm through the week as heights build. By mid to late week highs will again be back into the 80s for most of the area. A backdoor front will eventually cross the FA THU, but at this time just looks to be a wind shift with the column ahead of, along, and near the front being almost completely devoid of moisture.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A stronger cold front will push through the area Friday night, with strong high pressure building in for the weekend. Front looks moisture starved, but could bring sct shower chances. Cooler and drier airmass will build into the region this weekend, feeling like fall, with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s/50s. N-NW winds continue to trend a bit stronger behind the front, which could bring dangerous marine conditions along with the potential for coastal impacts for vulnerable locations along OBX. Though too soon for any specifics.
00z Tuesday through Saturday
VFR conditions currently at all terminals. Models and crossover temperature analysis hinting at the possibility of fog, particularly at KOAJ and KEWN. Guidance is not sold on this but clear skies and winds decoupling this evening will allow for stout radiational cooling which could lead to saturation in the lowest levels evident in the 18Z Tds comparable to TUE morning's lows. Expect the possibility of MVFR at all sites outside of KMRH around 9z with a TEMPO for LIFR at KOAJ and KEWN.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): Pred VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure builds in.
Small craft advisories have been dropped at this time. Occasional six foot seas possible over the next hour or two over the northern waters but should be dropping off this evening as winds subside. N-NE winds will continue to diminish to 5-15 kt tonight with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): High pres builds in Tue through the remainder of the week with pleasant boating conditions expected. Another front will push through the waters later in the week, likely Thursday, then a stronger front Friday night. Strong N-NNW winds expected behind the second front this weekend, and will likely see SCA conditions with potential for Gales across coastal waters N of Cape Hatt.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
