Key MESSAGE 1, Weak low pressure off the coast of NC will gradually shift away from the area tonight, but with a not-as- hot northeasterly flow lingering for one more day. Showers have mainly shifted south of the area late this afternoon, and expect decent clearing overnight. This could lead to patchy inland fog development.
After today, southerly flow returns for the rest of the week. This will support warming temperatures, rising humidity, and an increasing heat risk. The heat risk is expected to peak Thursday- Sunday, although the return of a more convectively active pattern may hold the heat risk down some, especially from Sunday into early next week. Heat headlines may be needed.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning guidance continue to show a strong signal for a more convectively active pattern returning by the weekend, and potentially continuing into next week. Additionally, machine learning and analog guidance suggest a pattern that is also favorable for strong to severe convection. This is supported by deterministic guidance, especially Saturday-Monday. Pwats are forecast to rise back above 2" as well, suggesting a pattern favorable for heavy rain and potentially some hydro concerns.
18z Tuesday through Sunday VFR conditions currently across the terminals. Showers have now shifted south of the TAF sites, with still about 10-20% chance for OAJ through late afternoon. If sufficient clearing occurs late tonight, the setup appears favorable for patchy fog development, potentially with a risk of IFR/LIFR conditions. If any fog develops overnight, conditions should improve shortly after sunrise returning to VFR.
Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): A drier and more muted TSRA pattern is expected through Friday. Eventually, a more active TSRA pattern should develop this weekend, bringing periods of sub-VFR. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night.
Latest obs show NE-E winds 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft. Low pressure south of ENC will gradually weaken and shift away from the area tonight. Winds lay down tonight to around 5-10 kt. Variable winds 5-10 kt Wed morning, becoming S-SSE 5-15 kt by late afternoon. Seas will grad subside to to 2-4 ft tonight and 2-3 ft Wed.
Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Southerly flow continues on into the upcoming weekend, steadily building each day. Winds are expected to peak over the weekend along with elevated seas. The next opportunity for marine headlines is expected with the building winds and seas this weekend. A more active thunderstorm pattern is expected over the weekend as well.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, none.
