Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

259 am EDT Fri Sep 22 2023


Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 develops off the Southeast coast and moves toward eastern North Carolina through Saturday. The system will move away from the area Sunday, with improving conditions.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 3 AM Fri, Potential TC 16 is currently about 380 miles S of Cape Hatteras, and is forecast to gradually strengthen and lift NNW towards the NC coast through tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for all of eastern NC. Impacts will quickly increase through the day and expected to continue into the weekend. See Hurricane Local Statement for additional details and timing.

Storm Surge - Storm Surge Watches and Warnings remain in effect with the potential for life threatening storm surge. Main threat through tonight is for areas adjacent to the Pamlico/Pungo/Neuse/Bay Rivers, the southern Pamlico Sound, and oceanside areas. This threat will then transition to the soundside Outer Banks late Sat and Sat night as the winds shift. See Hurricane Local Statement and Coastal Flood section below for additional details.

Rainfall - Rain along the coast this morning will continue to push westward, increasing in coverage and intensity. Flood Watch continues with widespread rainfall amts 3-5 inches with isolated amts up to 7 inches today into Saturday. This could lead to localized flash flooding. Wpc has upgraded eastern portions of the area to a Moderate Risk for excessive rain.

Wind - Conditions will deteriorate through the day with strong NE-E winds expected through tonight and into the first part of Sat, then shifting SW-W Sat afternoon and night.

Severe Weather - The severe weather risk increases tonight, esp after 06z, along with the risk for tornadoes, primarily east of the low track.

Short Term

Saturday through Saturday night As of 3 AM Fri, Potential TC 16 is forecast to make landfall along the NC coast Sat then track northward through eastern NC, and towards the Delmarva Sat night. Impacts will continue across the area Sat and Sat night including: storm surge, heavy rain, strong winds and severe weather threat. Heavy rain and severe weather threat will likely end by Sat afternoon, though other wind driven impacts, surge in particular, expected to continue into Sat night.

Long Term

Sunday through Thursday As of 4 PM Thu,

Sunday into next week, Low departs the area to the N and NE, after this, forecast remains especially murky. Aloft, area lies in the shear axis between departing troughing associated with the coastal low and a weak shortwave approaching from the W crossing through the area late Monday with more zonal flow aloft slated for Tuesday. Potential for developing weak upper level troughing over NECONUS sending a cold front through the area which could lead to a cooler couple of days midweek.

Rain Forecast

As of 3 AM Fri, Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will impact eastern NC today into the weekend. Widespread rainfall accumulations of 3-5 inches with isolated totals up to 7 inches. Heaviest rain today into Saturday afternoon. This could lead to localized flash flooding. A Flood Watch continues for all of eastern North Carolina. Wpc has upgraded eastern portions of the area to a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall.


06z Friday through Tuesday Through tonight As of 3 AM Fri, VFR conditions currently across the terminals, with high confidence in conditions deteriorating quickly after 12z this morning. Low pressure developing over the southwestern Atlantic (Potential Tropical Cyclone 16) will lift north towards the coast of North Carolina over the next 24 hours, potentially taking on tropical or sub-tropical characteristics prior to moving ashore. Cigs will gradually lower to IFR from south to north late this morning and afternoon as bands of RA begin to move into the area. Increasingly gusty E to NE winds will develop, with 30-35kt gusts expected close to the coast, and 25-30kt expected further inland. These gusts will increase as the low moves closer, but those higher gusts will occur beyond the current TAF cycle. The risk of TSRA may eventually increase this afternoon and tonight, but will still looks isolated.

Saturday through Monday As of 4 PM Thursday, Conditions expected to improve Saturday night as drier air fills in behind PTC 16. Vfr then generally prevails Sunday into early next week.


Through Saturday night As of 3 AM Fri, Very dangerous marine conditions expected through the period as Potential TC 16 develops off the SE coast and moves towards eastern NC. Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and seas 5-7 ft. Tropical Storm Warnings continue for all of the waters. Seas will continue to build, peaking at 15-20+ ft tonight and Sat.

Sunday through Tuesday As of 4 PM Thu, Winds eventually becoming WSWerly early Sunday as the low departs to the NE. Nerly winds 10-15kt Monday become NEerly late Mon.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, tropical storm warning for ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094- 193>196-198-199-203>205. Storm surge watch for ncz045>047-195-199-203>205. Storm surge warning for ncz080-081-094-194-196. Beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz195-196-199-203>205. High surf advisory from 8 am this morning to 6 pm EDT Saturday for ncz196-203>205. Marine, tropical storm warning for amz131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158- 230-231.

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