Isolated light showers will continue for the coastal basin this morning. More widespread moderate showers develop late this evening into Sunday morning, becoming more scattered during the day Sunday before tapering off Sunday afternoon and evening. Dry and warmer for the remainder of the week with highs near to a few degrees below normal each day.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,
Satellite this afternoon depicts a broad region of clouds west of northern Baja streaming through a branch of the subtropical jet stream toward Socal. Radar is beginning to pick up on light rain west of San Clemente Island, set to arrive at the coast during the later afternoon hours, moving inland through the evening. High resolution models now agree that tonight's rainfall will be widespread and light region-wide, perhaps more intermittent in the high desert, with some brief pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall, especially for coastal areas and for San Diego County. Widespread rain turns into scattered showers and wrap up in the desert valleys Sunday morning. Showers become increasingly more isolated through the afternoon, tapering off for northern areas by Sunday evening, leaving behind a few isolated showers in San Diego County through Sunday night.
Rain totals for this system will generally be higher for southern areas; SD County up to the mountains is expecting 0.75-1" of rain with locally high end amounts above 1.5". Orange County and the Inland Empire can expect 0.3-0.6" (more south and along foothills), with slightly higher totals in adjacent mountains. The deserts can generally expect 0.10-0.40" (more south) of generally light rain. Given that the system is bringing along subtropical moisture, the warm sector will bring snow levels above 10,000 feet tonight before dropping back to 7,500-8,000 ft. A dusting is possible above 8,000 feet over the highest passes and peaks, otherwise, no snow is expected for any mountain communities.
As the upper level trough passes to our north Sunday afternoon, there will be a brief uptick in west/northwest winds over the waters, mountain ridges and desert slopes, with gusts 25-40 mph, weakening overnight into Monday.
As the storm exits the region, low temperatures will drop Monday/Tuesday morning to the upper-40s inland, upper 30s in the high desert and down into the low 30s and 20s in elevated mountain valleys. Patchy frost is possible in the high desert.
Next week, a series of weak, fast-moving ridges and troughs will keep temperatures fluctuating, though gradually increasing by late week to the low to mid-80s regionwide for lower elevations. These are near average temperatures inland but above average for coastal areas. Generally expecting sunny skies with a few passing clouds Tuesday and Wednesday.
010000, Unbroken OVC mid-high level clouds region-wide through Sunday morning. FEW-SCT low clouds in the coastal basin will increase in coverage as widespread -RA moves into the region this evening. Intermittent MVFR cigs (2000-3000 ft) and vis (3-5SM) expected 03-15z Sun from the coast to the mtns. Most persistent MVFR conditions will be in San Diego County. Also, localized +SHRA in San Diego County and along the coastline may produce brief IFR conditions. -SHRA possible in the desrts 10-16Z Sun, but little to no cig/vis reductions expected. -RA will become more SCT from west to east 15-18z Sun with mid-high level clouds also clearing. Thereafter, ISO/SCT -SHRA will linger through Sunday evening in San Diego County and in the mtns.
There is a 5% chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. Westerly winds increase for Sunday afternoon and evening with gusts 20-25 kt. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the outer coastal waters from 11AM - 9PM Sunday. Weaker winds expected Monday, followed by more elevated onshore winds Tuesday afternoon and evening, with gusts in the outer coastal waters potentially exceeding 20 knots.
An increasing southwesterly swell (3 ft at 15 seconds from 200 degrees) will bring elevated surf this weekend into Monday, with breaking wave heights 3 to 6 feet through Monday. While high tides will continue to wane through the weekend, tides will remain just above 6 feet which could still lead to local minor tidal overflow during high tides where breaking waves approach 5-6 feet, mostly on southwest facing beaches Sun.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.
