Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

321 am PST Wed Feb 4 2026

Synopsis

Easterly Santa Ana winds will strengthen today along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains with gusts to 45 mph and isolated gusts to 55 mph. The winds will continue into Thursday before diminishing in the afternoon. A low pressure system off the northern Baja coast will direct mid and high level moisture and clouds into the area from the southeast for Thursday into Friday with a slight chance of showers for late Thursday night into Friday. The weekend will be dry and a little warmer. Another low pressure system may move to near the California coast during the early to middle part of next week with cooling and increasing chances for precipitation. Confidence is much lower on the timing and amounts of any precipitation.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Short Term

(today through Friday), Easterly offshore flow will strengthen today, then diminish on Thursday afternoon. Easterly Santa Ana winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains will strengthen today with gusts to 45 mph and isolated gusts to 55 mph. Through 2 AM, gusts have mostly been 40 mph or less with isolated gusts to around 50 mph. The winds will continue into Thursday with the winds diminishing Thursday afternoon.

A low pressure system off the northern Baja coast will direct mid and higher level subtropical moisture into the area from the southeast for Thursday into Friday. There is a slight chance of showers for late Thursday night into Friday. With lower levels of the atmosphere still quite dry, the most likely location for measurable precipitation, though light, is in the mountains.

High temperatures will warm for today and Thursday with Thursday high temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for the coast and valleys. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower to mid 70s near the coast to the mid 70s to lower 80s for the valleys and inland Orange County. The coast and valleys will cool around 5 to 10 degrees on Friday with Friday high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the upper 60s to mid 70s for the valleys.

Long Term

(Saturday through Tuesday), It will be drier and warmer for the weekend with Sunday high temperatures as much as 8 to 12 degrees above average for the valleys and lower coastal slopes of the mountains. High temperatures on Sunday will range from around 70 near the coast to the 70s to around 80 for the valleys and inland Orange County with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 80s.

Low pressure over the eastern Pacific will move to near the West Coast during the early to middle part of next week with lots of differences in the details. Chances for precipitation will increase for Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures for next Wednesday will cool to around 5 degrees below average for inland areas.

Aviation

041030z, Mostly clear and VFR conditions will continue today into tonight. Gusty easterly winds in the foothills will gradually increase in speed and coverage today, with surface gusts up to 40-50 knots through and below mountain passes. Moderate up/downdrafts and localized LLWS in lee (west of) mountains. Pockets of BLDU sporadically reducing vis 3-5SM in parts of the inland valleys.

Marine

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.

Beaches

Increasing long-period swell from the west-northwest will bring elevated to high surf of 5-8 feet with locally higher sets late Friday into Saturday. Impacts will be greatest at west facing beaches, especially across southern San Diego County.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Wind Advisory until noon PST Thursday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ, None.

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