Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

836 pm PST Sun Jan 11 2026

Synopsis

Moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds will continue along the coastal mountain slopes, foothills, and into the valleys through Monday. Periods of weaker Santa Ana winds will continue through the remainder of the week. A warming trend continues, with temperatures peaking around the middle of the week. Wednesday and Thursday will likely be the warmest days.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Winds were still elevated at 8:30 PM with the strongest gusts at 45- 55 mph gusting near the mountain foothills and below passes. A peak wind gust report detailing the strongest winds today is headlined on our weather.gov/sandiego homepage. Winds will remain elevated overnight into Monday morning with those 45-55 mph gusts becoming more widespread on the coastal slopes and onto mountain foothills. Winds will weaken and become more localized through the afternoon Monday. Where the wind is blowing, overnight lows will remain elevated with wind- sheltered locations in for another chilly night. Weaker winds and warmer conditions are expected for the middle of the week.

From previous discussion issued at 2 PM Jan 11, 2025,

While offshore Santa Ana winds will continue through the rest of next week, the strongest period of winds is very likely to be this morning. Winds begin to diminish late this afternoon as the upper level low over central Baja California starts to move eastwards, and high pressure over the Great Basin weakens. Winds will still be moderate to locally strong through Monday afternoon, and the Wind Advisory remains in effect until mid-afternoon Monday for the mountains to the valleys. Winds continue to weaken through at least mid-week, so though offshore winds will linger they'll be in the weak to locally moderate range. Strongest winds will continue to be in the foothills and passes.

The warm, dry airmass will remain in place from the continued upper level ridge along with the offshore winds, and each afternoon will be slightly warmer through Wednesday/Thursday next week. Temperatures peak Wed-Thu at 5-10 degrees above average for the coasts and deserts and up to 15 degrees above average for mid- January in the valleys, where the forecast is for highs 70s into the low 80s. The dry airmass will make it difficult for anything but intermittent mid to upper level clouds to form through at least mid- week, and efficient radiative cooling each night will lead to cooler mornings this week for wind-sheltered areas.

By late next week (Friday-Saturday), while there are model differences, it looks likely that another wave will move into the northern Plains/Mid-West, which could provide the support to bump up the offshore winds again. At the moment, the more likely outcome is a fairly weak, brief increase in winds late Friday into Saturday, but not to the strength of today's winds. In any case, warm, dry, and mostly clear weather is very likely to continue through late next week.

Aviation

120345z, Coast/Valleys/Mountains, Mostly clear skies prevailing. Northeast and east winds easing slightly this evening with gusts near 30-40 kts along coastal slopes and 20-35 kts downwind of the Cajon/Banning passes into the Inland Empire and parts of Inland Orange County/eastern San Diego Valleys. Weaker winds expected by Monday afternoon with the strongest gusts more confined to the mountain slopes near 25-35 kts. Offshore wind pattern prevails through Tuesday, continuing to weaken and become more localized.

Periods of LLWS with mod up/downdrafts downwind of coastal slopes, notably between 06-15Z Mon when strong winds are more likely to separate from the surface.

Deserts, VFR conditions through Monday evening. Elevated northeast winds staying mostly confined to desert foothills with gusts up to 20 kts through Monday afternoon.

Marine

Localized easterly wind gusts near 20 knots sporadically through Monday morning. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions expected through Friday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Wind Advisory until 2 PM PST Monday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ, None.

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