Isolated light showers will occur throughout the day and night for areas along and west of the mountains. A weather system will approach the region this weekend, bringing periods of heavier showers and elevated southerly winds. The weather pattern will remain fairly active with chances for showers across the region through next Thursday with drier and warmer weather expected thereafter.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION,
A robust area of low pressure west of San Francisco continues to pull in clouds and light showers from the south and southwest. Most areas across the deserts will remain dry with models showing isolated light showers and greater cloud coverage today through Saturday morning as prefrontal showers ahead of the low pressure system move closer to the State. The main frontal band will push through our area by early afternoon on Saturday through the evening, though models still continue to struggle with the exact timing of this. This band will bring heavier showers across Southern California this weekend with probabilities to reach one inch of rain in total around 30-40% across Orange County and far western Inland Empire. Higher totals near 2-3" are expected across the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County Mountains. The deserts may receive some rain, but most areas will see below one quarter of an inch. Snow levels will once again remain high as the southern trajectory of the storm system moves through. Snow levels will peak around 9,000 feet on Saturday.
As the frontal band approaches, southerly winds will pick up primarily over the San Bern. Co mountains into the high desert from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon with gusts 25-45 MPH at times (locally over 50 MPH on the desert slopes). The desert slopes in other mountain ranges will also be gusty through the weekend as well. As the front passes, colder air will infiltrate behind it, where snow levels will drop closer to 6,500-7,500 feet by Sunday afternoon and evening. Accumulations will be light with places such as Big Bear receiving one inch or less. Rain showers will continue off and on on Sunday with amounts becoming lighter as you go south.
The weekend weather system will help to create an open wave pattern, where small surges of energy will be able to move from the northwest to southeast over our area through the middle of next week. This will lead to a continued unsettled weather pattern with cloudier skies and chances for more rounds of showers. Chances for showers decrease near 15-25% for areas along and west of the mountains by Monday, so many areas may see a completely dry day. Another shortwave moves through the base of the troughing pattern by Tuesday, which will help aid the formation of a closed low. Models depict this system moving toward our area, but are still having difficulty on the exact path of the low, where a track further off the coast or too far to the south would keep us drier. Nbm POPs increase for now near 20-40% across the region, where light amounts are expected. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Another shortwave may move near the region by the middle of the week, but we will have to see how far south this moves over SoCal, where a slight chance of showers remains Wednesday through Thursday. Models then show a potential ridge building across the West Coast after this departs, which will bring a warming an drying trend by Friday into next weekend.
.AVIATION, 022100Z, Currently fairly clear along the immediate San Diego coast, with SCT-BKN clouds inland and northwards at 2000-5500 ft MSL. A wave of -SHRA is continuing northwards into the northwest Inland Empire this afternoon, bringing local cigs 1500-2000 and intermittent vis 4-6 SM. As these pass, cigs trending back up towards high MVFR then VFR. A few more waves of -SHRA tonight and Sat morning, one moving south to north Sat 01-05Z, the second moving from north Orange Co from 06Z then slowly eastwards through Sat morning. This will bring more cigs 2000-2500 overnight and Sat morning, and intermittent vis 4-6 SM. Cigs/vis improve late Sat morning into the afternoon. More light/mod, widespread precip approaches from the northwest late Sat afternoon/evening.
022100z, Currently fairly clear along the immediate San Diego coast, with SCT-BKN clouds inland and northwards at 2000-5500 ft MSL. A wave of -SHRA is continuing northwards into the northwest Inland Empire this afternoon, bringing local cigs 1500-2000 and intermittent vis 4-6 SM. As these pass, cigs trending back up towards high MVFR then VFR. A few more waves of -SHRA tonight and Sat morning, one moving south to north Sat 01-05Z, the second moving from north Orange Co from 06Z then slowly eastwards through Sat morning. This will bring more cigs 2000-2500 overnight and Sat morning, and intermittent vis 4-6 SM. Cigs/vis improve late Sat morning into the afternoon. More light/mod, widespread precip approaches from the northwest late Sat afternoon/evening.
No hazardous marine weather conditions expected through Tuesday.
High tides of 6.5 to 7 feet this weekend could lead to minor coastal overflow/flooding for beaches and flood-prone beach lots and walkways. In addition, surf increases Sunday, with breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet with sets to 7 feet, which will lead to hazardous swimming conditions and contribute to potential coastal flooding. Surf decreases Monday but remains elevated in the morning. See the Beach Hazards Statement for more details.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for Orange County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
