A little warmer today under mostly sunny skies then cooler through Monday. Mid and high level moisture from the tropics brings more clouds along with a slight chance of light showers for our southeastern regions for Sunday and Monday. Weak high pressure will bring dry and warmer weather for Tuesday into next weekend.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,
This afternoon, Temperatures are near or a few degrees higher than at this time yesterday. Today will likely be warmer than yesterday, with high temperatures anywhere from a few degrees above normal in the deserts to as much as 10-15 degrees above normal in the inland valleys of San Diego County. There were patchy marine layer low clouds this morning which have cleared out. Southwest flow aloft ahead of a low pressure system to the northwest has brought a few high clouds today.
Sunday and Monday, The low to the northwest will move southeastward into SoCal by Monday while hurricane Odalys (currently about 950 miles southwest of San Diego) slowly moves north and weakens, becoming a remnant low about 500 miles southwest of San Diego by Monday. The flow aloft will draw mid and high level moisture from Odalys into SoCal, resulting in slight chances for mostly light precipitation Sunday and Monday. The best chances for rainfall accumulations will be in the mountains during the afternoons. Current estimates are for rainfall totals range from 0.00 in Orange County up to 0.15 inch in the mountains. This scenario will bring lower temperatures, and Monday is expected to be the coolest day with temperatures near normal in the coastal areas to as much as 10-15 degrees below normal in the mountains. The increasing mid and high clouds could disrupt the marine layer and hinder the formation of low clouds tonight through Monday night. As the low pressure moves in from the northwest, it will bring stronger onshore flow on Monday, with westerly winds gusting 30-40 mph in the wind-prone locations of the mountains and adjacent desert slopes.
For Tuesday through the end of next week, The low pressure system begins to move eastward into AZ on Tuesday and high pressure aloft moves into SoCal. This will bring dry and warmer weather with the potential for weak offshore flow on Tuesday and Wednesday. The warming begins on Tuesday and peaks next Saturday with daytime high temperatures up to 7 degrees above normal in the deserts and as much as 10-15 degrees above normal in the low elevations west of the mountains. The lack of mid and high clouds with high pressure aloft could allow the low clouds of a shallow marine layer to return to the coastal areas.
270500z, Coast/Valleys, BKN-OVC high clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL continue to stream over the region, gradually lowering to about 10kft through the period. Low clouds will struggle to develop tonight with high clouds in place, and any clouds that do develop will be brief and intermittent. There is a 25% chance for intermittent cigs vcnty KCRQ/KSNA, so have maintained TEMPO groups through 12Z. For any clouds that do develop, bases will generally 800-1200ft MSL, with VIS 1-5SM in BR/FG for elevated coastal terrain, clearing out by 14Z. High clouds prevail throughout the day Sunday.
Mountains/Deserts, VFR prevails with BKN-OVC clouds 10-20 kft through the period. Pockets of -SHRA possible near the very end of the TAF period with little to no surface impact, but some brief lower cigs below 5000ft.
There will likely be northwest wind gusts of 20-25 knots in the outer waters Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by choppy mixed seas. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.
Southwesterly swell (3-4 ft at 13 seconds from ~200 degrees) from Hurricane Odalys persists through this weekend, bringing surf of 3-5 feet with sets up to 6 feet, highest along south and southwest facing beaches. The swell from Hurricane Polo (3 ft at 14 seconds from ~170 degrees) then increases on Monday. Given this direction, most of San Diego County beaches will be largely sheltered from this swell, but Orange County beaches (especially in north OC) should be impacted. Meanwhile, a northwesterly swell (3-4 ft at 7 seconds from ~290 degrees) arrives late Sunday and Monday. Between these two swells, surf of 3-5 feet with sets to 6 feet looks probable along south/southwest facing beaches with surf 3-5 feet along west-facing beaches through Tuesday. With this elevated surf, there is a high risk for rip currents through Tuesday.
Tides are already observed over 6.2 feet and are expected to gradually increase into early next week, peaking around 6.9-7.0ft for the late-morning high tides on Monday-Wednesday. A Beach Hazard Statement remains is in effect through Sunday night for due to the risk of minor tidal overflow and minor coastal erosion. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued, in effect from early Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon to account for the highest tides combining with the expected elevated surf. Primary impacts during the morning high tides Monday-Wednesday will be minor coastal flooding in low lying areas in addition to coastal erosion.
Please note - listed tide predictions have been adjusted to reflect actual measured tide observations.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late Sunday night for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
