Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

451 pm PDT Mon apr 13 2026

Synopsis

Scattered showers are possible through this evening across much of the region. Elevated winds will occur across the mountains and deserts through this evening as well. Drier weather will then take hold the rest of the week as a subtle warming trend occurs. Elevated winds will return to the region by Thursday into Friday.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Updated Aviation and Marine discussion,

An area of low pressure over the southern half of California will continue to move eastward today. This system will continue the chance for scattered showers across the region. Most areas will see a mix of clouds and Sun with these showers, though the chance for lower deserts seeing any measurable rainfall is below 15%. West winds will continue to remain elevated as the trough remains in the vicinity. West winds will gust near 25-40 MPH across most mountain and desert areas, with local gusts near 50 MPH in mountain passes. Satellite imagery shows a drying trend offshore. This trend will push onto land through the afternoon with more peaks of Sun from north to south into the evening. The weather system will push further inland over the desert southwest by Tuesday. This will lead to all areas warming about 10 degrees than that of today, with highs near to slightly below normal. Remnant clouds may stick around for areas west of the mountains in the morning with most areas clearing by the afternoon.

Slight warming with dry and mostly sunny conditions will occur on Wednesday as an area of low pressure tumbles into the Pacific Northwest. This system will traverse the Great Basin by Thursday, ushering in a broad troughing pattern. The system will stay far enough to the north to not provide any major impacts, but high temperatures will be up to 5 degrees cooler with elevated west winds across the mountains and the deserts. Winds will turn offshore late Thursday night into Friday as the system passes further inland, so we will continue to monitor how strong these winds will be which will be dependent on the exact location that this low pressure system goes. Subtle warming looks to occur by the weekend, though a large trough offshore could make things interesting as we head into the latter part of April.

Aviation

132350z, Coasts/Valleys, Multiple SCT-BKN cloud layers above 2,500 ft MSL expected through the TAF period. SCT -SHRA are slowly tapering off but could still drop cigs to 2,000 feet at times. -SHRA is expected to clear the area after 07Z. Cigs are not expected to drop below 3,000 ft MSL overnight along the coast but could get as low as 2,000 ft MSL in the valley areas. Any low clouds should SCT by 18Z-19Z.

.Mountains/Deserts, West to southwest winds are expected to continue gusting 35-45 kt through passes and on to desert slopes through 10Z. MOD up/downdrafts in lee of mountains. SCT SHRA/SNSH will be possible through 07Z in the mountains.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

Marine

Isolated westerly wind gusts will exceed 20 kt at times through this evening, generating choppy conditions. No hazardous conditions are expected Tuesday through Friday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, None.

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