Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

250 am PDT Fri jul 31 2026

Synopsis

Strengthening high pressure will bring warming into the weekend. High temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees above average for inland areas during the weekend with moderate to major HeatRisk except at the beaches and for the highest elevations in the mountains. High temperatures will slowly cool early next week with some increase in humidity for inland areas during the middle and latter part of next week. Night and morning low clouds will spread into coastal areas with the marine layer a little shallower over the weekend.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Short Term

(today through Sunday), High pressure will continue to strengthen over southern California through Saturday, then begin to slowly weaken into early next week. High temperatures will continue to warm through Saturday with Saturday high temperatures around 5 degrees above average near the coast to 8 to 12 degrees above average farther inland. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s near the coast to 100 to 110 for the Inland Empire with 115 to 120 for the lower deserts. High temperatures on Sunday will begin to cool a few degrees.

Nights will be warmer for the weekend, mostly in the mid 60s to lower 70s for the coast and valleys, in the 70s to around 80 for the Apple and Lucerne Valleys and for mountain areas below 5500 feet, and in the upper 80s to mid 90s for the lower deserts.

The HeatRisk will peak on Saturday with widespread moderate or greater HeatRisk except at the beaches and for mountain elevations above 8000 feet. There will be moderate to major heat risk for the valleys and for mountain elevations below 5000 feet with major to locally extreme HeatRisk for the deserts.

Long Term

(Monday through Thursday), The slow cooling trend will continue for Monday and Tuesday with some model differences for Wednesday and Thursday with the strength and placement of the high across the central and southern Rockies westward to California. High temperatures for next Wednesday will be generally within a few degrees of average near the coast to 4 to 8 degrees above average for inland areas. High temperatures for next Wednesday will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s near the coast to the mid 90s to 105 for the Inland Empire with 110 to 114 for the lower deserts.

Low temperatures will cool a few degrees on Monday and again on Tuesday, then change little for Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures on Wednesday will be mostly in the 60s and lower 70s for the coast and valleys, in the 70s for the Apple and Lucerne Valleys, and in the mid 80s to lower 90s for the lower deserts.

There will be moderate HeatRisk for next Wednesday for the inland valleys and mountain elevations below 5500 feet with moderate to major HeatRisk for the deserts.

Depending on the placement of the high, there could be some increase in moisture from the east during the latter half of next week. Through Friday of next week, NBM chances for measurable precipitation are greatest over the mountains for next Thursday afternoon at 10 to 15 percent.

Aviation

310600z. Coast/Valleys, Low clouds based around 800-1200ft MSL continue to spread up to 15 miles inland by 14z. VIS 5- 6SM for inland spots with HZ and 2-6SM where clouds intersect terrain and in some valleys. Scatter back towards the coast by 16- 18z, with mostly SKC for the afternoon. Very patchy low clouds develop again after 03z Sat, but don't look to move inland or impact TAF sites until later, closer to 09-12z, with intermittent CIGs. Bases will be at or below 1000ft MSL.

Mountains/Deserts, SKC and VFR through Friday evening. FEW-SCT high cu AOA 20,000ft MSL possible.

Marine

No hazardous marine weather is expected through Wednesday.

Beaches

A southerly swell from Hurricane Genevieve will continue to generate elevated surf through Friday before diminishing over the weekend. Surf of 4-7 feet with sets up to 9 feet for south and southwest facing beaches. This will create conditions hazardous for inexperienced swimmers. In addition, high tides each evening will exceed 5 feet. The combination of high tides and high surf increases the risk of coastal flooding. Further information on all these hazards is found in the Coastal Hazard Message.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

High Surf Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for San Bernardino County Mountains.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ, None.

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