Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

124 am PDT Wed jul 15 2026

Synopsis

The heat is expected to peak today with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average. High temperatures will cool a few degrees on Thursday, then cool to around average for Friday into early next week. Drier today, then a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday, mostly for the mountains, and continue for each afternoon into next week.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Short Term

(today through Friday), The heat is expected to peak today with high temperatures around 5 degrees warmer for inland areas than Tuesday and around 5 to 10 degrees above average. High temperatures for today will range from the mid 70s to near 80 at the coast to the upper 90s to 108 for the Inland Empire with 110 to 114 for the lower deserts. High temperatures will cool a few degrees on Thursday. There will be greater cooling on Friday with high temperatures cooling to around average for Friday through Monday. High temperatures on Friday will range from the 70s near the coast to the 90s for the Inland Empire with 104 to 108 for the lower deserts.

The drying and stabilization trend of Tuesday will continue today with a slight chance of showers for this afternoon for the mountains. Some monsoonal moisture in south to southeast flow aloft will return for Thursday and Friday with a slight chance for afternoon showers, mainly in the mountains.

Long Term

(Saturday through Tuesday), High temperatures will remain around through Monday. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, mainly for the mountains.

Aviation

150500z. Coast/Valleys, SKC and VFR conditions expected through early Wednesday morning. Areas of low clouds based 600-1000 ft MSL are expected to develop over coastal San Diego County 10-12z Wed. Patchy clouds may briefly develop over coastal Orange County after 12z. Minor vis reductions (1-5SM) expected for elevated coastal terrain and western valleys (I-15 corridor). Low clouds scatter back to the coast by 15-16z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with FEW high clouds above 10 kft Wednesday afternoon.

Mountains/Deserts, SCT Cu based around 10,000 ft along with ISOLD SHRA over mountain ridges Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, FEW-SCT high clouds AOA 15,000 ft.

Marine

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.

Beaches

Astronomical high tides peaking 7.0-7.5 ft currently will peak again around 6.5-7.0 feet Wednesday evening. High tides combine with a modest south swell (2 ft swell at 13-15 seconds from 190 degrees) to generate surf of 3-5 ft for south-facing beaches and 2-4 ft elsewhere. This will produce areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Wednesday evening and contains further details. There will be an increased risk of rip currents through Wednesday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains- San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts.

PZ, None.

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