Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

315 am PST Fri Nov 16 2018

Synopsis

A return of weak onshore flow will spread cooling into the valleys today and farther inland on Saturday. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog are expected to return near the coast late tonight into Saturday morning with greater coverage the following nights. A weakening low pressure system moving inland through northern Baja and southern California on Tuesday is expected to bring more cooling, but little or no precipitation. For the latter half of next week, onshore flow will prevail with Pacific weather systems moving inland along the West Coast with uncertain timing, track, and intensity. There is a chance for precipitation during the latter half of next week, but with low confidence in timing and any amounts.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Weak onshore flow will return near the coast today and strengthen slightly on Saturday with a return of the marine layer. Low humidity will continue for inland areas today, but with weak winds. The onshore flow will spread cooling into the valleys today, and farther inland on Saturday with a return of patchy low clouds and fog near the coast late tonight into Saturday morning. Weak high pressure aloft across California will bring a slight decrease in marine layer depth for Sunday and Monday with slightly warmer high temperatures for coastal and valley areas.

For Tuesday, a weakening low pressure system will move inland through northern Baja and southern California with decent agreement among the global models with the timing, track, and intensity of this system. While this system is expected to bring stronger onshore flow and some cooling, chances for any precipitation of significance are quite low.

For the middle to latter part of next week, there remain greater differences among the global models with the timing, track, and intensity of Pacific weather systems as they approach the West Coast and move inland. In general for Southern California, onshore flow will prevail with temperatures around average. While there will be some chances for precipitation during this period, confidence is low in the timing and any amounts.

Aviation

161000z, SCT-BKN high clouds with unrestricted VIS through this afternoon. Patchy stratus, with bases around 800 ft MSL and tops near 1500 ft MSL, will develop tonight along the coast and push around 20 SM inland by early Sat morning. Stratus is not expected to be widespread tonight. VIS of 2-4 SM BR is expected where low clouds near higher terrain.

Marine

No hazardous marine weather is expected through Tuesday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.

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