Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

441 am PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Synopsis

The remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will bring increasing moisture and clouds for Wednesday into Thursday along with increasing chances for showers along with a chance for thunderstorms. There will be some drying for Friday into the weekend with chances for thunderstorms mainly for the mountains and deserts each afternoon and early evening. A second tropical system could bring another increase in moisture for early next week.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Short Term

(today through Thursday), Satellite imagery shows increasing coverage of low clouds over the coastal waters, extending locally inland into coastal areas. Fog could be locally dense near the mesas in San Diego County and near higher terrain for the Orange County coastal plain.

Today will be warmer with high temperatures for the coast and valleys around 4 to 8 degrees above average with the deserts a few degrees above average. High temperatures will range from around 80 near the coast to the mid 90s to 102 for the Inland Empire with 100 to 105 for the lower deserts.

There could be some isolated showers or thunderstorms over the mountains for this afternoon with the chance for measurable rainfall of less than 15 percent. The remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will bring increasing moisture for Wednesday into Thursday along with increasing chances for showers along with a chance for thunderstorms. The moisture is expected to peak on Thursday along with chances for showers. NBM chances for one-half inch or more of rainfall is around 25 percent for the coast and valleys to around 45 to 55 percent for the mountains.

With the increase in moisture and clouds, high temperatures for inland areas will cool several degrees for Wednesday and again on Thursday with high temperatures on Thursday as much as 8 to 12 degrees below average for the mountains with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s near the coast to the 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower to mid 90s for the lower deserts.

Long Term

(Friday through Monday), The moisture will decrease for Friday into the weekend with decreasing chances for thunderstorms, limited mainly to the mountains and deserts each afternoon. There could be another influx of tropical moisture early next week from a second tropical system. High temperatures for inland areas will warm around 10 degrees from Thursday through Sunday with Sunday high temperatures mostly a few to around 5 degrees below average. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 70s near the coast to the upper 80s to mid 90s for the Inland Empire with the mid 90s to around 100 for the lower deserts.

Aviation

160930z, Coast, Low clouds based 400-900 feet MSL will continue to cover most coastal areas through sunrise. Areas vis 1-5SM in BR, especially around KSNA. Scatter out to happen by 16Z. Low clouds generally not expected tonight into Wednesday, just very patchy, isold clouds with bases 300-700 feet MSL.

Valleys/Mountains/Deserts, VFR conditions today and tonight. Clouds over mountains developing after 18Z and leading to a slight chance TSRA 21-01Z. CB bases AOA 10000 feet MSL, with tops reaching 30000 feet MSL. Lightning, gusty winds, and reduced VIS expected where any TSRA develops.

Regionwide, SCT to locally BKN clouds around 10000 feet MSL increasing after 00Z.

Marine

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday, with a better chance Thursday afternoon and evening. Any storms could briefly produce lightning, gusty winds and choppy seas. Otherwise, no additional marine weather hazards are expected through Saturday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, None.

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