Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

1116 am PDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Synopsis

Scattered mostly light showers will continue through this morning, decrease this afternoon, and end from the northwest tonight. Then dry and warmer for the weekend through Monday with high temperatures warming to around average. Then gradually cooler for next Tuesday through Thursday.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,

Short Term

(today through Sunday), The area of showers over the coastal waters moving into southern Los Angeles County, Orange County, and northern San Diego County will continue to move slowly southward along the San Diego County Coast through this morning. That area will clear southwestern San Diego County during the afternoon with some additional showers over the mountains of southwestern San Bernardino, Riverside, and and San Diego Counties during this afternoon. For this evening, there will be some additional showers from the coast to the mountains with those showers ending from the northwest late tonight. Additional rainfall through tonight from the coast to the mountains will be mostly 0.10 to 0.33 inch with locally greater amounts near the coast.

High temperatures will begin to warm today for the mountains and inland valleys, but with high temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees below average for the mountains. High temperatures for today will be mostly in the 60s and lower 70s for the coast and valleys and in the 40s and 50s for the mountains.

There will be weak northerly offshore flow on Saturday. North winds will gust to 30 to 40 mph along the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains and below the Cajon Pass from late tonight into early Saturday afternoon.

High temperatures on Saturday will warm around 5 degrees near the coast and in the deserts to 5 to 10 degrees for the valleys and mountains with high temperatures on Sunday warming another few to around 5 degrees. Sunday high temperatures will still be around 5 degrees below average for the mountains. High temperatures on Sunday will be mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s for the coast and valleys, in the 50s and 60s for the mountains, and in the mid 80s for the lower deserts.

Long Term

(Monday through Thursday), High temperatures on Monday will warm a few more degrees. This will be followed by a cooling trend for Tuesday through Thursday with Thursday high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the coast and valleys, in the 50s to mid 60s for the mountains, and in the lower 80s for the lower deserts.

There could be some light showers as early as Thursday as a lower latitude low pressure system moving across the eastern Pacific moves closer to the West Coast.

NBM chances for 0.01 inch or more of rainfall for the coast to the mountains increases from 10 to 20 percent for next Friday to 35 to 45 percent on Saturday the 31st to 40 to 50 percent on Sunday November 1st.

Aviation

231800z, SHRA coming to an end, with most locations VFR. VCSH may continue through the evening, especially for San Diego County. VIS 5- 6SM with any SHRA. Generally SCT-BKN 4000-6000ft MSL, clearing after 24/03z. Generally no widespread low clouds tonight or Saturday morning, with VFR prevailing. Weak northeasterly winds overnight for inland airports.

Marine

Isolated northwest wind gusts will occasionally exceed 20 knots today in the outer waters. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

Beaches

Astronomical high tides will create significant coastal flooding starting Sunday. Tides will be anywhere from 1 to 1.7 feet above predictions. Morning high tides could reach near 7 feet Saturday morning and are likely to exceed 7.5 or 8 feet by Monday morning. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the entire Orange and San Diego coastline Sunday morning through Thursday morning.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ, None.

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