Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

349 am PDT Tue Mar 26 2019

Synopsis

Warming will continue for the deserts today as cooling begins to spread inland from the coast as a low pressure system moves toward the West Coast. Through Wednesday, it will also bring some high clouds and some increase in coastal low clouds. As that low pressure system moves inland to the north, it will bring a slight chance for light precipitation for late Wednesday night. It will also bring stronger onshore flow with periods of stronger and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts for Wednesday night into Thursday evening. It will be dry with a warming trend for Friday through Monday. There will be periods of gusty north to northeast winds along and near the coastal slopes of the mountains and below passes and canyons for Saturday into Sunday.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Short Term

(today through Thursday), Early this morning, satellite imagery shows some patchy stratus near the coast. Satellite imagery also shows a large closed low pressure system off the West Coast directing some mostly thin high clouds across southern California. Warming will continue for the deserts today as cooling begins to spread inland from the coast. That cooling will continue through Thursday.

As that low pressure system weakens and moves inland, it will strengthen the onshore flow across southern California with periods for stronger and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts for Wednesday night into Thursday evening with strongest gusts to around 50 mph in the windier locations for Thursday into Thursday evening.

That low pressures system will also push a weakening cold front across southern California Wednesday and Wednesday night. A few light showers from that weakening cold front could reach portions of Orange and southwestern San Bernardino Counties late Wednesday night.

Long Term

(Friday through Monday, High pressure aloft will develop off the West Coast on Friday, then strengthen and move to near the West Coast for Saturday and Sunday, then begin to weaken and move inland on Monday. There continue to be some run to run and model to model differences with the strength of the high pressure and the timing of the movement from off the coast to inland. That doesn't have much impact on the general trends for Friday through Monday. It will be dry with a warming trend for Friday through Sunday with Monday nearly as warm for many locations. By Sunday, high temperatures for inland areas will be 10 to 15 degrees above average for inland areas and 5 to 10 degrees above average toward the coast with not that big a range between the warmer and cooler solutions through the period.

There will be some mostly weak offshore flow during the weekend with periods of gusty north to northeast winds along and near the coastal slopes of the mountains and below passes and canyons.

Aviation

260900z, Patchy coastal low clouds based near 1200 feet msl around KSAN and KCRQ through 16Z. Areas of low clouds developing after 03Z, increasing and moving partially inland overnight. Bases around 1500 feet msl. Otherwise, increasing high clouds above 15000 feet today and tonight.

Marine

Northwest winds gusting over 20 kts are possible Thursday afternoon and night over the outer waters, which could generate locally hazardous conditions. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is forecast through Saturday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.

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