Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

930 pm PDT Fri apr 26 2024

Synopsis

Showers will gradually taper off by a little after midnight, with decreasing winds overnight. Fair weather will return Saturday with higher pressure aloft. The marine layer will continue to bring at least some low clouds near the coast each night and morning, with mostly seasonal temperatures next week.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Update,

So far no thunderstorms have formed, but some showers were occurring, especially in the foothills on the north and east sides of the Inland Empire. Only local rainfall over 1/10" has occurred late this afternoon and this evening. The trough axis will move through in the next few hours, with precipitation ending after the passage of the axis a little after midnight. Otherwise, mostly clouds skies will continue through early Saturday, with HRRR/HREF showing good clearing over the region during the day Saturday and low clouds being rather patchy Saturday night near the coast. Regarding the winds, the high-res models/LAMP/NBM MOS suggest a gradual decrease in the winds overnight, allowing for an 11 PM expiration of the wind advisory, though some breezy conditions will continue in some mountain/desert areas Saturday afternoon/evening with a few gusts over 40 MPH. Fair warmer weather will prevail early next week.

Previous discussion,

The murky cloudiness and drizzle from this morning has lifted and busted up somewhat this afternoon, especially at the coast. Strong westerly winds continue in the lee slopes of mountains into the deserts with isolated gusts over 60 mph around San Gorgonio Pass. A vigorous shortwave of low pressure will shoot through interior SoCal this evening. This will continue to force strong winds in the mountains and deserts, but also boost coastal winds this afternoon. Isolated to scattered light showers will continue, mainly in foothills today. As the wave axis moves through this afternoon and evening, it will bring colder air aloft, destabilizing the atmosphere especially in the interior. That's why there's a small chance of thunderstorms over the higher mountains in SBD and RIV Counties and adjacent valleys late this afternoon and evening. San Diego County valleys will get an enhanced chance of showers during this time. Showers and winds decrease overnight and all that's left by sunrise Saturday will be the clouds from mountains westward. Clearing out Saturday should get an early start in Orange County before the rest of the area clears out by late morning, although some cumulus clouds will form over the mountains. Weak high pressure aloft will bring fair and warmer weather next week. High temperatures all week will be near normal at the coast and slightly above normal inland. A coastal eddy and a persistent marine layer will contribute coastal clouds during the nights and mornings. While uncertainty continues in the upper air pattern next week, the range of outcomes is rather small. A weak ridge pattern will prevail. For now it looks like fair and truly spring-like weather, with seasonal temperatures and low clouds near the coast during nights and mornings.

Aviation

270455z, Coast/Valleys/Mountains, BKN020-040 tops 6500 feet with ISO -SHRA through 15Z Saturday. Mountains obscd in clouds and fog at times. Gradual clearing 15Z through 19Z Saturday.

Deserts, Mostly clear with gusty northwest winds 20-40 kt decreasing overnight. Gusty desert winds of 20-30 kts returning Saturday afternoon.

Marine

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 7 AM Saturday for strong northwest winds of 20-30 kt and a short-period wind swell of 6 seconds that will produce hazardous boating conditions, especially beyond 15 nautical miles from shore.

Winds and seas subside Saturday. Lighter winds and seas are forecast Sunday through Wednesday.

Beaches

Elevated surf from a short-period wind swell on exposed west-facing beaches. Surf and swell will gradually subside tonight into Saturday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

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