High pressure aloft and some drying of mid level moisture will bring warming for today and Wednesday with widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk through Thursday except for the higher elevations of the mountains. Southeasterly flow aloft will bring a return of greater monsoonal moisture for Thursday into the weekend along with a chance of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, mostly for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures will cool to around average for the weekend.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF,
(today through Thursday), High pressure will bring warming through Wednesday, though with mid level flow becoming southerly with some drying of mid level moisture. High temperatures will warm 5 to 10 degrees for inland areas today and another 5 degrees on Wednesday with low temperatures warming a few degrees.
High temperatures on Wednesday will be mostly 5 to 10 degrees above average. Low temperatures on Wednesday will be around 5 degrees above average, to 10 to 15 degrees above average on the lower slopes of the mountains. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 70s to near 80 at the coast to the upper 90s to 108 for the Inland Empire with 112 to 116 for the lower deserts.
The warm nights will contribute more to the higher HeatRisk for the next few days. The Extreme Heat Warning has been expanded to the lower deserts for today through Thursday. The Extreme Heat Warning remains for the mountains and valleys for Wednesday and Thursday with a Heat Advisory for coastal areas on those days. After drying for today and Wednesday, precipitable water values will begin increasing again on Thursday with the higher values for Friday through next weekend not too different from this past weekend.
The daytime heat will be mostly not record setting. However, there could be a few records tied or broken in the mountains for record warm low temperatures.
(Friday through Monday), High pressure aloft will remain across the area with monsoonal moisture in southeast flow aloft bringing a chance of afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures will cool around 5 degrees for Friday and again on Saturday, then remain around average for Sunday and Monday.
141000z. Coast/Valleys, Low clouds based 1000-1400 ft MSL are lingering over coastal waters early this morning. Patchy clouds should briefly push into coastal areas up to 10 miles inland this morning after 12z. Chance of cigs is 60% at KSAN, and 50% at KCRQ and KSNA. Any low clouds that manage to develop will retreat back to the coast by 16-17z. VFR conditions expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. Similar to this morning, low clouds will struggle to reform Tuesday night. Greatest chance for patchy low clouds will be over coastal San Diego County after 09z Wed.
Mountains/Deserts, ISO SHRA along with Cu based near 10 kft over mountain ridges 19z Tue to 00z Wed. Otherwise, FEW-SCT high clouds AOA 15 kft.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.
Astronomical high tides peaking 7.0-7.5 ft each day through Wednesday. High tides combine with a modest south swell (2 ft swell at 13-15 seconds from 190 degrees) to generate surf of 3-5 ft for south-facing beaches and 2-4 ft elsewhere. This will produce areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. Highest tides each evening will generally occur between 8 and 10 PM. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Tuesday evening and contains further details. There will be an increased risk of rip currents through Wednesday.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains- San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts.
PZ, None.
