Above average temperatures are expected through Wednesday. Weak offshore flow will keep low clouds and fog absent from the coast through the middle of the week. A cooling trend will follow for Thursday into early next week. There are chances of showers at times for later in the day Friday through next Monday.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE,
Weak offshore flow and weak ridging aloft will continue through the middle of the week. These conditions will maintain mostly clear skies and above average temperatures. Highs will be 7 to 15 degrees above average, with the greatest departure from normal along the coast.
On Thursday, A low pressure system moving toward the California coast will weaken high pressure aloft with lower-level flow becoming onshore and strengthening. That will bring cooler conditions that will be maintained through the weekend and the return of onshore flow. There is low confidence in when any marine layer low clouds or fog would return, but they're expected as early as Thursday or Friday.
There is still a lot of uncertainty around the track and timing of the aforementioned low pressure system and the impacts it may bring to Southern California this weekend. Current forecast has periods of rain chances starting Friday evening and continuing into Saturday. There is still quite a bit of spread in potential rainfall amounts with some ensemble members remaining dry and other showing around an inch of rain. Nbm chances of rainfall totals exceeding 0.5 inch between Friday evening and Saturday evening are 15-25%, with the highest chances on the coastal mountain slopes. It's also possible that winds will increase over the mountains and deserts as the low passes Friday night into Saturday.
Global ensembles keep a troughing pattern over the West Coast continuing Sunday into early next week. This will continue our cooler, cloudier conditions with additional chances of precipitation. There is low confidence in any details of potential rainfall for early next week.
100515, FEW-SCT clouds at or abv 20000 ft MSL with unrestricted VIS through Tuesday. Local E/NE winds gusting 15-25 kts will continue through and west of mountain passes and along coastal slopes through the period.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.
A rise in westerly swell will generate surf of 3-6 feet, leading to strong rip currents and hazardous swimming conditions through Tuesday evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for San Diego County beaches through late Tuesday.
This mornings high tide reached around 7.4 feet and the Tuesday morning high tide will also likely exceed 7 feet before slowly lowering through this week. Minor coastal flooding is possible during Tuesday's high tide along west-facing beaches where surf will be higher. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through noon Tuesday for beaches in San Diego and Orange Counties.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
