Weak to moderate Santa Ana winds will continue through the weekend. High temperatures 5-15 degrees above normal for the coastal areas and valleys, warmest on Sunday. Winds weaken into next week as high pressure moves into the area, keeping temperatures above normal. A weather system may near the area by later next week, bringing cooler weather with a chance for rain.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
Today through Monday,
Current 500mb analysis plots an upper low swinging through northern Mexico this afternoon, with a ridge axis extending from central CA into the Great Basin. This is providing northerly flow aloft, with the surface high placed in the Great Basin. Surface pressure gradients look to have peaked earlier this morning, with -10.7 mb SAN-TPH at 15z (7AM) and -4.6 mb SAN-DAG at 17z (9AM), and are now beginning to relax. The offshore winds also look to have peaked compared to earlier this morning, but will still remain breezy into this afternoon. North-northeast gusts 15-20 mph across the inland valleys will continue this afternoon, with gusts up to 35-40+ mph within mountain passes and adjacent foothills. Temperatures are quite mild as a result of the offshore flow, with many coastal/valley locations in the mid to upper 80s, about 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages. As the upper level pattern progresses and the surface high slides southeastward toward the Four Corners into Sunday, the offshore pressure gradient will continue to gradually weaken and offshore winds turn more easterly. Stronger wind gusts will favor east-west passes in Riverside/San Diego counties as a result, with top gusts 30-40 mph in the mountains/passes. Occasional 15-20 mph gusts may stretch into the foothills and inland valleys Sunday afternoon. Persistent offshore flow will keep the temperatures unseasonably warm, with similar high temperatures to today, perhaps even a few degrees warmer. While offshore flow looks to stay in place into Monday, the weakening trend will continue, with elevated breezes (near 20-25 mph) remain restricted to the mountains/passes. The heat will stick around though, with highs on Monday being a few degrees cooler than Sunday.
Tuesday into the end of next week,
Come midweek, global ensembles are consistent with an upper ridge spreading into south-central California and the Southwest. This keeps our weather relatively quiet, with the main story being the persistence of mild conditions, high temperatures on Tuesday- Wednesday stay in the low to mid 80s for the coasts/valleys, maintaining the 10-15 degree departure from average.
Global ensemble cluster then feature an upper low to follow the ridge some time late week, but clusters diverge on the progression of this low. The clusters favor a pretty far south storm, with the GFS cluster being too far south to bring precipitation chances, and the Euro cluster being slightly less south, bringing slight precipitation chances. Timeframe would be late week, but uncertainty in any rainfall occurring remains quite high at this time. For now, rainfall chances would increase the further south you go.
071800, SKC and VFR regionwide. This afternoon, W/NW winds for coastal areas; E/NE winds gusting 25-35 kts to continue for coastal facing slopes and downslope of wind corridors, weakening gradually this evening. E/NE winds increase once again (gusts 25-35 kts) Sunday after 12z west of the Banning Pass and along west facing slopes, down to inland SD County and reaching the coast locally.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.
High tides will exceed 7 feet each morning through Tuesday, peaking Sunday and Monday at 7.4-7.6 feet. A northwest swell at 2-3 feet with a period of 14-15 seconds will keep surf at 3-6 feet along west- facing beaches through Tuesday, with 3 foot waves more likely along south-facing beaches. This NW swell will increase to 3-4 feet on Monday, which will bring sets to 7 feet on west-facing beaches.
The combination of high tides and elevated surf will generate minor coastal flooding, with chances for moderate coastal flooding along west-facing beaches where surf will be higher. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through noon Tuesday and contains more details.
Reminder, tides mentioned have been corrected to reflect the current trends in actual tide observations.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
