A warming trend will continue into Saturday with temperatures well above average. Locally gusty offshore winds will continue through this period in the mountains and foothills as well. Slightly cooler weather can be expected by Sunday and Monday as a weak area of low pressure moves closer to the region. High pressure regains control for the middle and end of next week, bringing more warm weather with increased Santa Ana winds.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
This evening, except for a few wisps of high clouds, skies are clear. Surface pressure gradients are still offshore with -9.6 mb SAN-TPH and -4.6 mb SAN-DAG. In the last hour, some wind-prone locations are reporting northeast to east winds gusting 25-35 mph and at least one location reported a gust of 44 mph. Conditions remain very dry and wind-sheltered areas in the inland valleys could once again see overnight low temps in the 30s.
From previous discussion, High pressure to our southwest over the Pacific is strengthening. This weather system will move northward, turning upper level winds eastward. This will favor greater wind speeds across mountains/passes of San Diego and Riverside Counties. Strongest winds will occur around sunset Friday evening, continuing a bit weaker Friday night through Saturday with wind gusts 25-45 MPH.
The bigger story will be the heat. The area of high pressure will build and expand over the Desert Southwest with 850 mb temperatures peaking near 15C. High temperatures across SoCal will locally go over 15 degrees above average. Light offshore flow will contribute to the highest temperatures in the valleys west of the mountains. Friday and Saturday will see similar temperatures with highs well into the 80s across the Coachella Valley as well as most valleys west of the mountains. The air mass over the region will be warmest by Saturday, where there is around a 50-50 chance of highs over 85 degrees, from northern Orange County, the western Inland Empire, and foothills of San Diego County (Ontario, Riverside, Anaheim, Poway, El Cajon). It would be quite the interesting day, making our area the warmest spot in all 50 states. Some record high temperatures for the days on Friday and Saturday are possible across some of our cities, including Lake Elsinore, Escondido, and Vista.
A weak low will form to the south, bringing increasing onshore flow and subtle cooling to the area by Sunday and Monday, though temperatures will still be well above normal for early February, with temperatures remaining near 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This "reprieve" will not last long though, as the ridge from this weekend becomes reinvigorated and anomalously strong as it parks itself over the western part of the country by the middle and end of next week. You know what that means, no rain in sight with more warm weather. Nbm forecast points to highs returning into the 80s across inland valleys with highs in the 60s/70s from the beaches into the high desert and foothill regions. Something we will also be watching is going to be the Santa Ana winds. As the area of high pressure moves northward into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, an area of low pressure will form to our south. The movement of these systems will act to funnel desert air into Southern California, increasing offshore flow by next Wednesday and Thursday. Model ensemble guidance points to a potential elevated to moderate Santa Ana wind event by this time, where highest winds would be over mountains/passes of San Diego and Riverside Counties.
300400z, VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Expect clear skies with breezy northeasterly winds continuing in the foothills and below mountain passes into adjacent valleys. Gusts up to 25-35 kts will be possible through Friday night, slowly decreasing into Saturday morning.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.
Elevated surf will combine with the high tide Friday morning, increasing the risk of strong rip currents and minor tidal overflow.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
