Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard Ca

416 am PST Fri Jan 24 2020

Synopsis

24/317 AM.

High pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday, with above normal temperatures expected. A very weak cold front will bring clouds and a slight chance of rain for mainly northern areas Sunday, along with some cooling. Dry and breezy conditions are expected Monday through Thursday.

Short Term

(tdy-Sun), 24/346 AM.

There were a few patches of low clouds and locally dense fog on the Central Coast, in the Santa Ynez Valley and in the interior valleys of SLO County early this morning. That should dissipate by mid morning. Otherwise, some high clouds will drift across the region today, so expect a mostly sunny to partly cloudy day.

Pressure gradients were offshore this morning, and there were some locally gusty north to northeast winds in the mtns of L.A. and VTU Counties and across southern SBA County. Some of these winds could spread into the valleys for a few hours, but winds are expected to remain well below advisory levels this morning.

Although heights/thicknesses will rebound this afternoon after dropping slightly due to a weak fast-moving short wave trough passing across the region, they will not be quite as high as they were on Thu. In addition, W-E gradients are forecast to become neutral or possibly even turn very weakly onshore this afternoon. This may bring a couple of degrees of cooling to most area west of the mountains today, though it will likely be barely noticeable if it occurs, and temps should still be above normal.

Increasing N-S gradients across the Central Coast and through the Interstate 5 Corridor, along with some increase in northerly winds aloft and some subsidence, should cause a bump up in northerly winds across southern SBA county and through the Interstate 5 Corridor tonight. Winds will likely get very close to advisory levels in these areas this evening, before decreasing late tonight. A positively tilted upper ridge will linger across the region on Saturday. The WRF hints that some low clouds may try to form late tonight/Sat morning across southern L.A. County, but that it far from a sure thing. Low level gradients between KLAX and KDAG will turn a bit more offshore by Sat morning, so there could be some gusty NE winds in the mtns and valleys of L.A and VTU Counties, but well below advisory levels. Max temps could edge upward a bit on Sat, but the models all show more in the way of thick upper level cloudiness which could knock a few degrees off max temp potential.

The ridge across the region will shift to the east Sat night and Sunday as a weak trough moves into the West Coast. The WRF shows a more organized stratus field developing Sat night, with stratus likely pushing into at least most coastal areas south of Point Conception, and possibly getting into the valleys late Sat night and Sun morning. Otherwise, mid and high level clouds associated with the tail end of a weakening frontal system will move into areas north of Pt Conception Sat night and Sun morning. It really looks as though the only change of light rain from this system will be across SLO and possibly northern SBA Counties Sun morning into early Sun afternoon.

Behind the frontal system, sharpening N-S gradients, subsidence, cold air advection and decent northwest flow aloft should bring some gusty northwest to north winds to the region late Sun into Sun night, likely reaching advisory levels in some areas, particularly in the mtns, and across southern SBA County.

Skies should become partly cloudy in most areas late Sunday afternoon and Sun night, but moist northwest to north flow could allow clouds and possibly a few showers to linger on northern slopes of the mtns thru Sun night. It will be much cooler across the region on Sunday.

Long Term

(Mon-Thu), 24/410 AM.

A ridge will build into the region on Monday, then it will briefly flatten Tue as a trough passes by to the north. Following that, strong upper level ridging will build into the West Coast for Wed and Thu. Dry weather is expected through the period. Strong northwest to north flow is expected for much of the week, with advisory level winds (at least) likely at times through the I-5 Corridor and across southern SBA County. There will be some warming in most areas on Mon, with little change on Tue, then significant warming is likely Wed and Thu.

Aviation

24/1209z.

At 11Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX.

VFR conditions are generally expected through the period. There is a chance of LIFR conditions at terminals north of Point Conception through 17Z. There is a chance of LIFR to IFR conditions after 06Z for Los Angeles County coastal terminals. There is a chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after 00Z.

KLAX, VFR conditions are expected through 08Z, then there is a 40 percent chance of LIFR to IFR conditions after 08Z. There is a 30 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence between 03Z and 07Z.

KBUR, VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 40 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence between 00Z and 08Z.

Marine

24/415 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds and building seas above SCA level of 10 feet are very likely by this evening. Conditions will remain at SCA levels through the forecast period. There is a 50 percent chance of gale force winds Monday and Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Marginal SCA level winds could develop this afternoon and evening, but SCA level seas will be very likely by late this evening. A brief break in SCA level winds and seas could develop late Saturday night through Sunday morning, but there is a 70 percent chance of SCA conditions Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. There is a 50 percent chance of SCA level winds on Friday evening across the Santa Barbara Channel. There is a 70 percent chance of SCA level west to northwest winds and SCA level seas in excess of 7 feet Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

Beaches

24/401 AM.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY has been issued for all beaches between Saturday and Sunday morning. Surf and swell will increase throughout today along the Central Coast, then build into the southern California tonight. While there is a period where surf and swell could drop off between Sunday morning and Sunday night, there is a 40 percent chance that the advisory could be extended into Tuesday. Larger surf is possible between late Sunday night through Tuesday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Sunday for zone 39. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to noon PST Sunday for zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

Visit this site often? Consider supporting us with a $10 contribution.
Learn more

Share this forecast!