01/101 PM.
Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night and morning. However, increasing pressure will mean weaker onshore flow, decreasing clouds in valleys further inland from the coast, and gradually warming temperatures. Expect a return to near-normal temperatures by early next week with 90s for many valley locations by that time.
(tdy-Sat), 01/1258 PM.
Daytime temperatures will continue to run around 10 degrees, give or take, below normal the next couple of days. As pressure heights begin to increase on Thursday, temperatures will gradually warm through the middle of next week. While the Antelope and San Luis Obispo Valleys will likely see 90 plus degrees as early as Friday/Saturday, valleys elsewhere won't see similar temperatures until early next week. The marine layer will also be thinner/quicker to dissipate, especially further inland, meaning more sunshine to help facilitate daytime warming across many valleys further from the coast. Heat risk will remain little to minor with slightly higher risk once we get into early to middle of next week when daytime temperatures in our valleys warm into the 90s. Expect breezy, sub-Advisory winds daily across the Antelope Valley with gusts to around 35 mph.
(Sun-Wed), 01/100 PM.
Pressure heights over southern CA will generally rise throughout the extended period, maintaining relatively weaker onshore flow and warming temperatures. The thinning marine layer will be quicker to recede off the coast, meaning increased daytime warming in areas further from the coast. Come early next week we will likely observe widespread near-normal temperatures and more widespread valley locations reaching 90 or more degrees. While the Antelope and San Luis Obispo Valleys will have already warmed into the 90 plus degrees range by late week, probabilities suggest that valleys elsewhere will most likely not observe similar warmth until next Tuesday. During the weekend timeframe, southern CA will be between an area of low pressure to the northwest and a ridge of high pressure to the southeast. After that, ensembles show different scenarios regarding our upper-level pattern heading into the middle of next week. There is also the potential for some breezy sundowner winds early next week in the Santa Barbara area, although speeds don't look to be very impactful at this time.
01/1628z.
At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 5500 feet with a temperature of 16 degrees Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPMD and KWJF. For all other sites, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs as timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30% chance that CIGs will drop to IFR levels tonight. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30% chance that CIGs will drop to IFR levels tonight.
01/1218 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds.
For the Inner Water north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds Saturday through Monday, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
