03/119 PM.
Showers are likely today with possible thunderstorms across the mountains and spilling into the valleys and even parts of the coast. Though some areas, especially the coastal areas, will remain dry. Dry weather is expected starting Friday and lasting through next week. A strong warming trend will begin Friday and will continue through late next week with only a one day break on Monday. Well above normal temperatures are very likely next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s expected across the valleys.
(tdy-Sun), 03/143 PM.
Showers are blossoming across the mountains as of 1pm so things are on track for this afternoon with showers and isolated storms eventually spilling into coastal valleys and parts of the coast as well. HREF still indicating the potential for as much as a half inch per hour across the northern San Fernando Valley and San Gabriel Valley as the storms make their way south from the mountains. CAPE values between 400-600 J/km are pretty high for our area and certainly worth paying close attention to. Thunderstorms are a strong possibility as well with gusty winds and possibly small hail as well. Wouldn't want to totally exclude those rates from other areas but certainly confidence is a little higher there due to the mountain proximity and at least a few consistent runs favoring that area.
Outside of those areas, lighter showers are expected all the way from the Central Coast through Santa Barbara County, the Ventura Mountains and spilling over into the northern Ventura County valleys, the Santa Monica Mountains, as well as Downtown LA and possibly even towards the coast.
Shower chances tomorrow appear to be remote at best as models now are showing the upper low and the instability moving too far south and east. So for now the forecast Friday through Sunday is for dry conditions with a warming trend as high pressure builds in from the west. Possibly some breezy northerly winds at times through the Santa Ynez Range and I5 corridor.
(Mon-Thu), 03/221 PM.
The xtnd forecast is all about the heat. The ridge will peak on Sunday and then will be knocked down some on Monday as a trof passes well to north. The lower hgts will make Monday the only day of the 4 that does not see warming temps. A stronger ridge builds in starting Tuesday and peaking Wednesday and Thursday. Highs are expected to climb into 70s to low 80s for coastal areas and mid 80s to mid 90s in the valleys with at least a 5-10% chance of reaching 100 in the western San Fernando Valley Wed/Thu. There's reasonable chance of heat advisories at least in the LA/Ventura valleys both those days. Overnight lows will also be warming up, especially in the foothills.
Weak offshore flow will continue through the period. Skies will be mostly clear. The forecast does not contain any low clouds but there is 20 to 30 percent chc of some clouds each morning esp over Srn LA county and western SBA county.
03/2336z.
At 2326Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion or marine layer.
Low to moderate confidence in Ventura and Los Angeles County TAFs until 05Z. There is a 10-50% chance for thunderstorms at all sites through 05Z, with highest chances at KBUR and KVNY through 03Z, lower chances for coastal sites including KLAX.
High confidence in all TAFs after 05Z. There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR/IFR conditions 10Z-18Z at KSMO/KLAX/KLGB.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance of showers and thunderstorms through 03Z. For tonight, there is a 20% chance of MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs 10Z-18Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Low confidence through 05Z due to there being a 50% chance of thunderstorms through 03Z, then a 20% chance between 03Z to 05Z.
03/1217 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday night, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue. For Saturday and Sunday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. From Sunday night through Tuesday, a combination of SCA level winds and seas are expected.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight, there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds. On Friday, there is a 40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From Sunday night through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas (with the strongest winds in the afternoon and evening hours).
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Tuesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 70% chance of SCA level winds this evening, a 30% chance of SCA level winds late Friday afternoon/evening and a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds Monday and Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Dense fog may develop this upcoming weekend, especially in the evening to morning hours, in response to a ridge building over the region.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
