30/230 AM.
An extended period of gusty north to northeast winds is expected through through the end of the week. A warming trend will start today and continue through the rest of the next week especially mid week when the Santa Ana winds arrive and high pressure builds over the area.
(tdy-Wed), 30/252 AM.
An eddy spun up last evening and created a blanket of stratus that covered the LA/VTA csts and most of the vlys. A 3 mb offshore push from the north has produced some canyon winds through the Santa Monicas and this is clearing portions of the LA cst. The offshore push will create eratic clearing this morning but most areas should be sunny by late morning. The barest of front passed over the northern portion of the forecast area last night and while rainfall amounts were negligible or nonexistent (and confined to the Central Coast). It did usher in enough cold air advection that, when combined with the offshore flow from the north, to produce low end advisory winds through the mtns and SBA south coast. These winds will diminish later this morning. The offshore flow will bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming to the csts and vlys (the SBA south cst will be the exception where the lack of northerly winds in the afternoon will bring 5 to 10 degrees of cooling). Cool air advection from the north will cool the mtns and interior by about 10 degrees.
A little dry trof will ripple over the state tonight. It will do little except to increase both the mid level clouds and the offshore flow from the north. At the same time building high pressure in the Great Basin will bring offshore flow from the east. An eddy will develop first and low clouds are forecast to overspread the LA/VTA csts/vlys, although there is a chc (40%) that the offshore flow will keep them away. Advisory level gusts from the north will develop in the mtns in the wake of the trof.
As the offshore push for the east increases Tuesday morning the winds will shift from the N to NE. Advisory level gusts will likely continue in the mtns but right now there is only a 40 percent chc that advisory gusts will develop across the wind prone csts and vlys. Skies will turn sunny in the afternoon and max temps will bump up a couple of degrees across most of the area.
The offshore flow will peak on Wednesday. Low end advisories look likely for the Santa Ana wind corridor (about 10 miles either side of a Santa Clarita to Pt Mugu line). The bigger news for New Years Day will be the picture postcard weather with sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s (up 5 to 10 degrees from Tuesday and about 8 degrees over normal).
(Thu-Sun), 30/318 AM.
EC and GFS agree that on Thursday there will be a ridge overhead with 578 dam hgts. There will be 2 to 4 mb of offshore flow from both the E and N. 40 percent of the ensembles show that this will be strongest Santa Ana day but more likely it will come in weaker. Another 1 to 2 degrees of warming will make this the warmest day of the week for the csts/vlys with plenty of 70s and even some lower 80s.
The ridging will continue on Friday and this will continue the warming trend for the interior (aided but less cool air coming in from the high desert) The onshore flow will be much weaker and likely onshore to the E. This change in the sfc flow pattern will cool the csts/vlys by about 5 degrees. Despite the cooling max temps will remain above normal.
Another weak trof will pass over the northern 2/3rds of the state early Saturday. There is a chc of some light rain for SLO county but other wise it will just bring some clouds and 3 to 6 degrees of cooling.
Not much to say about next Sunday. It will be dry and coastal temps will be a little below normal while further inland it will be several degrees above normal.
A peak at the full 15 day runs of the EC and GFS show no appreciable chc of rain.
30/1141z.
At 2326Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 6000 ft with a temperature of 16 C.
Moderate to high confidence for KSBP, KSMX, KPMD, and KWJF. Wind gusts may be off by 5 kt during peak winds.
Low confidence in remaining TAFs due to uncertainty in timing of flight cat changes and flight categories (which may bounce frequently). There is a 20% chance of VFR conds from 12Z Mo -02Z Tue for KSBA, KSMO, and KLAX.
KLAX, Low confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of SCT008-SKC until 02Z Tue. There is only a 10% chance of the east wind component reaching 6 kt this morning until 20Z.
KBUR, Low confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance of VSBY as low as 1/4SM until 17Z Mon.
30/236 AM.
Most of the outer waters are seeing Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and/or seas that will last through tomorrow night. Isolated gusts of at least 35 kts are possible near the Channel Islands and south to San Nicolas Island early this morning, with local gusts to 35 kt are possible from Point Concpetion to the Channel Island and west to the Outer Waters during the day into evening today. Such strong winds will remain mostly isolated, but there is a 20% chance for a Gale Warning to be needed. Otherwise, a combination of SCA winds and seas will impact the Outer Waters through at least Tuesday night, with a 30-40% chance of winds extending into early Thursday morning. SCA winds and seas look to return late Friday into the weekend (70-80% chance) with Gales possible (30% chance).
For the Inner Waters along the Central Coast, a combination of SCA level winds and seas is expected through at least this evening. Seas will subside, but there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a high (60-70% chance) of SCA winds and seas over the weekend.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Concpetion, breezy offshore winds are expected each morning Tuesday through Thursday, with a 20-30% chance of reaching SCA conds for the Inner Waters from Santa Monica to Point Mugu. Otherwise, relatively benign conditions are expected, with a chance 30-40% for SCA winds this weekend across the SBA Channel.
Patchy dense fog may return for the southern inners waters this morning.
30/155 AM.
High surf will continue for the west-facing beaches of the Central Coast (8 to 12 ft) and Ventura County (5 to 8 ft) through at least today. Rip current risk will be high. Nuisance coastal flooding may continue to affect beaches on the Central Coast and Ventura County during morning high tide today and possibly Tuesday.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 88-342-345-349>353-372-375>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 7 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST Wednesday for zones 288-369>372-374-375-379. (See LAXRFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for zones 288-355-358-369>372-374>376-379. (See LAXRFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday afternoon for zones 354-362. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 1 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST Wednesday for zone 376. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST early this morning for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
