Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard Ca

611 am PDT Sat Mar 28 2020


27/803 PM.

Cool and dry conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon. From Saturday evening through Sunday, a weak storm system will bring the threat of light showers to the area. For next week, dry and warmer conditions are expected with Tuesday and Wednesday the warmest days of the week.

Short Term

(tdy-Mon), 28/320 AM.

Skies were mostly clear across the area save for some low clouds working their way into southern LA county. That will quickly change as mid and high clouds streaming ahead of a very weak storm system will bring partly cloudy skies to the entire area. By this afternoon the trof will be across nrn CA there is a slim chc that some rain could fall north of Morro Bay. It will be another cool day with below normal temps. Max temps across the csts/vlys will only be in the lower to mid 60s.

The trof will move through the area on Sunday. It will be very weak and will really only affect SLO county, Nrn SBA county and the mtns of LA and VTA counties. There may be a few sprinkles elsewhere but they will be on little or no consequence. Even where it does rain rainfall totals will be under a tenth of an inch. Snow levels will likely remain above 5000 ft and there will not be any snow issues over the major mountain passes. The trof passage will also usher in gusty NW winds over the Santa Barbara South Coast and Antelope Valley. On Sunday night the winds will shift more to the N as the trof continues to move to the east. The strongest winds will occur over the SBA South Coast, I-5 corridor, and western Antelope Valley. These areas will likely reach advisory levels.

Dry NW flow aloft sets up on Monday. Skies will likely be mostly sunny or at worst partly cloudy. Hgts rise to 576 DM. These hgts along with moderate offshore flow from the north will lead to a 4 to 8 degree jump in temps. Coast and vly temps will top out in the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

Long Term

(Tue-Fri), 28/327 AM.

Both the EC and GFS agree that there will be dry NW flow over the area Tue and Wed and then weak ridging on Thu and Fri. It will be dry all four days.

There will be offshore flow from both the east and north on Tuesday and this will be the warmest day for the coasts and vlys. The warmest days for the interior will be Thu and Fri under the ridge.

All four days will have warmer than normal max temps and 70s will be the order of the day, but cannot rule out a few 80 degree readings in the warmest locations.



At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer at KLAX was around 3000 ft deep.

There were areas of low clouds in coastal sections of L.A. County and in the valleys of L.A. and VTU Counties this morning. Conds were mostly MVFR, except low VFR in some coastal areas, and locally IFR in the foothills. Skies should clear by mid to late morning in most areas, except possibly early afternoon near the coast. Expect widespread low clouds in all areas tonight, with cigs spreading into coastal areas this evening. Conds will be mostly MVFR. There could be some showers, mainly n of Pt Conception and in the mountains tonight.

KLAX, Low to moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. Low VFR or high MVFR cigs are expected to move back into the airport by 14Z. There is a 40% chance that this will not happen. There is a 20-30% chance of east to northeast winds reaching 10 knots between 14Z and 19Z. There is a 30% chance that MVFR cigs will hold off until 09z tonight.

KBUR, Low to moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 30-40% chance that MVFR cigs will scatter out as early as 15Z. There is a 30% chance that MVFR cigs will hold off until 11z tonight.


28/334 AM.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and short period seas will cont thru late tonight for the southern two zones (PZZ673/676). There is a 30-40% chance that winds will reach SCA levels across the northern zone this afternoon/evening.

There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Sun afternoon into Sun night, except SCA level winds are likely across the southern zone. SCA level winds are likely Mon thru Wed.

Across the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon/evening hours today and Sun. SCA level winds are likely Mon thru Tue, then there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds Wed.

Across the inner waters south of Pt Conception, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across western portions of the SBA Channel this afternoon/evening. SCA level winds are likely across much of the area Sun afternoon/evening, then there is a 40% chance of SCA level winds Mon afternoon/evening.

Overall, there will be an extended period of hazardous short period seas under 9 seconds through at least early next week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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