Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1003 pm PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1243 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026 (This evening through Friday night)

A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM this evening for much of the interior Bay Area and Central Coast as 500 mb high pressure remains in place over the region. Temperatures across the interior will be in the some 10-20 degrees F above seasonal averages again this afternoon with cooler conditions near the coast given the shallow marine layer around 500 feet in depth.

Overnight temperatures will still remain warm in the higher terrain tonight with 60s to low 70s expected and generally in the 50s in the lower elevations. This is as a mid/upper level trough begins to develop off of the British Columbia coastline and allows for the marine layer to deepen.

Friday will be noticeable cooler as the aforementioned trough deepens along the West Coast bringing temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. Thus, expecting temperatures to cool into the low-to- upper 80s in the inland valleys and the warmest interior portions of the region to reach into the lower 90s. Breezier onshore winds are also expected on Friday afternoon and evening along the coast and wind-prone gaps, passes, and valleys. This will keep temperatures near the coast in the 60s to lower 70s.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for bayshore locations adjacent to the San Pablo Bay with up to 1.2 feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas during times of peak high tides. On Friday morning, the areas adjacent to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay are added to the advisory through at least 3 PM Tuesday.

Long Term

..issued at 1243 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday)

Additional cooling is expected by Saturday as a dry frontal boundary drops southward across the Bay Area and Central Coast and the mid/upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. Thus, temperatures will cool to below seasonal averages Saturday through early next week. Onshore winds will be a bit stronger than those on Friday with gusts between 30-40 mph along the coast and in the wind- prone gaps, passes, and valleys. Locally stronger gusts will be possible in these areas this weekend.

The NBM and global forecast models continue to indicate a chance for rain showers across the southern portion of the Bay Area and Central coast Sunday evening through Monday. This is as an upper level cut- off low pressure system and remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel push into the Central Coast. However, not expecting widespread measurable rainfall at this time. Winds ease late Sunday and into early next week as the through axis shifts inland. Cooler conditions are forecast to persist through midweek as troughing persists over the West Coast. Then, as we head into the latter part of the upcoming week, a gradual warming trend is forecast by the WPC Cluster Analysis as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 1003 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR everywhere except for HAF, MRY, and SNS where LIFR-IFR conditions prevail through Friday morning. Fog development is possible overnight at these sites, including STS, though low to medium confidence on the exact timing. Overnight, winds remain light and gradually increase to a moderate onshore breeze Friday afternoon with locally stronger winds at SFO. The anticipated cold frontal passage is complicating the ceiling forecast tonight and Friday evening. The marine layer will deepen, but it will likely remain too shallow to reach the interior East and South Bay valley terminals. Moderate confidence for IFR ceilings at OAK and LIFR ceilings at the coastal sites plus STS.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Northwest winds gradually ease overnight. Low confidence on stratus impacts at SFO with scattered decks more likely. OAK continues to have a higher chance of borderline IFR-MVFR ceilings that will mix out by late Friday morning. Northwest winds increase that afternoon and remain elevated through the evening as the cold front passes through the region.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, IFR ceilings will gradually drop to LIFR overnight, resulting in foggy/misty conditions through Friday morning. Low to medium confidence on the exact timing of visibility reductions. VFR prevails Friday afternoon once onshore winds increase to around 10 kt. IFR ceilings are likely to return around sunset again on Friday.

Marine

(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1003 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Hazardous marine conditions begin Friday through the weekend. North to northwesterly breezes increasingly become strong to near gale force as a cold front approaches the coast. Very rough wind driven seas build up to 15 feet with a low long period southerly swell arriving on Friday, which is then replaced by a moderate rough long period westerly swell on Sunday. Marine conditions gradually improve early next week as northwest winds ease.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-530.

Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

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