Issued at 911 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026
Largely quiescent conditions are forecast as we kick off the work week. Mostly sunny skies and a dry airmass should equate to mild conditions today. The current forecast MaxT appears reasonable, though there's a chance that highs could overachieve by 2-4 degrees in spots thanks to diminished onshore flow (with even some periods of 5-10 knot offshore flow). This doesn't really alter our sensible weather/IDSS messaging. If heading to Pacific Coast beaches to enjoy the pleasant conditions, be mindful of the increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. This threat may subside some after this evening, however, it'll elevate a times through the rest of the work week. We encourage those venturing to the beach to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, other water side infrastructure and NEVER turn your back on the ocean.
, Issued at 1214 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026 (Today through Sunday)
Cold Weather Advisory in effect for inland locations will expire this morning, and will likely be the last issuance of the week as temps warm under the building high pressure aloft.
Now check this out. Doing things differently this morning. For this discussion, I'm considering "short term" to be the current 7 day forecast period, then I'll discuss a bit more into the future in the long term discussion. This won't be a normal thing going forward. Just for now since there is really no notable change between days 1-2 and days 3-7.
Do you have outdoor chores to do, or enjoy a picturesque sunrise or sunset, or wondering if your outdoor plans are going to hold up this weekend. In short, do the chores, watch the sunset, and your plans are fine. The only thing you should double check this week are beach/surf conditions, should you find yourself there. There is an increased risk for sneaker waves along all Pacific Coast beaches this week, most notably in the early half of the week. Refer to the BEACHES section below for more.
..issued at 1214 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026 (Next week)
In the extended (looking out further than we normally do just for honorable mention), we're starting to see signs of this very strong ridge breaking down. Starting around the middle of next week (Jan 21-22), ensemble cluster analysis is start to better advertise some kind of shift in the large-scale pattern. This is still pretty uncertain given that there is still a good deal of spread among member solutions. However, if the pattern does shift more in our favor, a reasonable time window for the next rainfall would be mid-to-late next week.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 934 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026
VFR with the exception of fog at STS and haze at HAF. This will continue to be the case over the next 24 hours. Guidance brought fog back in for STS again tonight. Probabilistic guidance is greater than 40% for fog development. Therefore, will have a few hours of dense fog for STS. Less than 15% chc for fog elsewhere and left it out for the time being. Winds are relatively light with some diurnal pushes to moderate. Not really impactful for most aircraft.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR.
SFO Bridge Approach, Same as SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Stronger drainage push for SNS overnight.
(today through Saturday) Issued at 934 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026
High pressure over the Eastern Pacific and low pressure near the coast will maintain gentle to moderate northerly breezes over the waters through midweek. Additionally, a longer period moderate swell will impact the coastal waters leading to a more rough sea state and enhanced shoaling near the coast, harbor entrances, and bars.
Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through 6PM PST Monday for all Pacific Coast beaches. A longer period moderate swell will bring hazardous beach conditions with increased risk for rip currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore break. This will result in dangerous conditions along the shoreline. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue through Thursday with the issuance of additional Beach Hazard Statements likely.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
PZ, None.
