Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

326 pm PST Tue Jan 21 2025

Synopsis

Issued at 325 AM PST Tue Jan 21 2025

Cold mornings will continue through much of the extended forecast with Frost and Freeze products likely to be reissued throughout the week. Daytime temperatures will see a slight warming trend Tuesday through Thursday before another pattern change brings a cooler airmass for the weekend.

Short Term

, (Today and tonight) Issued at 325 AM PST Tue Jan 21 2025

Upper level ridging pattern centered over coastal California will continue to amplify and build north today and tomorrow. A weak fetch of offshore flow near the surface will keep skies mostly clear with light winds today and tomorrow along with gradual warming of daytime highs, especially inland. The clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling to keep overnight lows mostly below normal with another round of Freeze/Frost products likely for Wednesday morning once this mornings products expire at 9 AM PST. Highs on Wednesday will increase slightly near the coast and around 5 degrees inland from todays values.

Long Term

..(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 325 AM PST Tue Jan 21 2025

The warming of daytime highs continues on Thursday after another cold start. Portions of interior southern Monterey County may see an impressive diurnal warming from the upper 20s early Thursday morning to upper 70s in the afternoon. A disturbance over the Pacific Northwest late Thursday into Friday begins to break down the amplified ridging across the west, with an upper low eventually splitting off from the Polar Jet on Saturday, then lingering over SOCAL for the remainder of the weekend into next week. The developing upper low will definitely bring cooler daytime temperatures for the weekend through the remainder of the extended forecast. Saw no need to change the slight chance PoPs from the NBM for the weekend , as it seems to capture the weak signal for rain/snow chances (snow chances confined to elevated locations in S Monterey, San Benito Counties and East Bay Hills). Widespread wetting rains are not expected, and locations fortunate enough to see some precip should expect less than a tenth of an inch.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 325 PM PST Tue Jan 21 2025

Satellite shows mostly clear skies with some high clouds funneling across the terminals. Therefore, high confidence that VFR will prevail through the TAF period as the offshore winds will continue to bring dry conditions, with the exception of KSTS. Models show a chance for low VIS/CIGs between 14-17Z, but confidence is low to moderate. Light to moderate winds through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Mostly light to moderate onshore winds through the TAF period, with a chance of southerly winds overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the TAF period. Moderate SE drainage expected overnight with onshore winds returning Wednesday afternoon.

Marine

(tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM PST Tue Jan 21 2025

Moderate northerly breezes persist through tonight, increasing to a fresh breeze by Wednesday afternoon. Winds ease Thursday into the late week before increasing again this weekend along with hazardous seas as a strong storm system approaches.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ502-504-505-508-510-512>515-517-518-528>530.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ506-516.

PZ, None.

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