Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

936 pm PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Short Term

, Issued at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025 (This evening through Monday)

Subtle day-to-day change to start the week with Tule fog present again today across the delta and the interior East Bay, as well as persistent stratus across parts of the North Bay. Expecting this trend to improve going into Monday as an upper level disturbance approaches from the NE. Many locations may start the day with clouds and fog Monday morning, but anticipating a much better afternoon with clearing taking place earlier in the day. There is a chance of a light burst of offshore flow in the North Bay overnight tonight with breezy winds up to 20-30 mph along the interior high terrain. As such, high temps Monday are likely to be a few degrees warmer than today for these North Bay locations that have been in the soup for the last several days.

Long Term

..issued at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025 (Monday night through next Saturday)

Quiet through the early week, but high likelihood of gusty offshore winds in across the North Bay, East Bay, and Santa Cruz Mtns beginning early Wednesday morning. The stubborn high amplitude ridge to our west promotes a deep inside slider system digging into the Great Basin by midweek. The main impact from the winds will be the drying that will occur due the dry, continental nature of the airmass moving in behind the system, as well as a bit of compressional heating due to downslope flow. Daytime minimum RH in the 35 to 45% range can be anticipated across the interior North Bay, East Bay Hills and interior, Eastern Santa Clara, and the Santa Cruz Mtns. The RH range can also be expected across the Santa Lucia and higher terrain of San Benito county, but winds aren't likely to be as gusty here. In the aforementioned gusty areas, NE winds with gusts to 25-35 can be expected, with localized gusts up to 45 along the higher ridgetops. Offshore pressure gradient peaks late morning Wednesday, so we can reasonably anticipate winds winding down into the afternoon hours with a more neutral pressure gradient restored by the overnight hours into Thursday morning.

Beyond the Wednesday system, we return to a quiet, benign pattern into the weekend. By the weekend, there are some hints at things finally getting more interesting for us as the Pacific jet starts to ramp up over eastern Asia and the western Pacific. What this means for us is beyond the 7 day outlook and still holds some uncertainty. However, this looks like this the potential start to our next "active" pattern through the middle of the month. Stay tuned.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals. Generally an optimistic persistence forecast on tap. Fog/stratus will continue to be advected into Bay Area terminals tonight with an earlier clearing time tomorrow thanks to true offshore flow developing. The effects of high clouds overhead are going to be the wild card tonight. They seem too thin to stop fog/stratus expansion, but it may be enough to slow it down and not have the poorest flight conditions last as long. Slant range visibilities will be reduced due to haze.

Vicinity of SFO, Currently MVFR with northerly flow. A very generous BKN low-end MVFR ceiling is being reported. Satellite imagery shows it being on the western side of the terminal and not expanding much. Conditions will likely teeter on the edge of IFR/MVFR if a true ceiling does develop. Northeasterly winds will prevail through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR with westerly flow at SNS. Moderate to high confidence on VFR prevailing through the TAF period at both terminals if fog is not able to be advected up the Salinas Valley with the help of drainage winds.

Marine

(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 935 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas will prevail Monday through Tuesday morning. Hazardous marine conditions return Tuesday afternoon as northerly breezes increase to become fresh to strong and seas become rough to very rough. Conditions improve Thursday with moderate northerly breezes and moderate seas.

Beaches

Issued at 1228 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Tuesday evening with a very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Tuesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Visit this site often? Consider supporting us with a $10 contribution.
Learn more