, Issued at 215 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025 (This evening through Monday)
Yet another beautiful afternoon across the region with sunny skies and temperatures warming into the low to mid 60's near the coast and lower 70's across the interior. Breezy conditions are occuring near the coast and in the higher elevations with gusts between 20 and 30 mph, however stronger northwesterly winds are occuring just offshore. Tonight temperatures will cool into the upper 40s to mid 50s across much of the region. However, increasing cloud cover from an approaching cold front is likely which may limit radiational cooling.
Rain showers return to the region on Monday, first over the North Bay around or after sunrise and then over the greater San Francisco Bay Area by midday. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected as the front progresses southward into the Central Coast by early afternoon. This is as CAPE values approach 500 J/kg and lapse rates reach or exceed 7 C/km as the airmass aloft becomes more unstable late Monday morning through the evening. The front is currently expected to clear the Central Coast around 7 PM PDT with post- frontal rain showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing into Monday night and Tuesday morning.
..issued at 215 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025 (Monday night through next Saturday)
On Tuesday, lingering post-frontal rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist, especially over the Central Coast before the mid/upper level low pushes inland. Winds will be strongest over the Central Coast and into the Diablo Range Monday afternoon and into Tuesday morning with southwesterly gusts up to 50 mph, especially in the higher elevations. This does not appear to be long- lived or encompass enough of an area to warrant a Wind Advisory, however we will continue to monitor closely.
Rain chances will greatly diminish Tuesday night and moreso into Wednesday as the pushes into Nevada. In fact, most of the day on Wednesday will be dry across the region. Rainfall totals from Monday through Tuesday night: 0.25"-0.75" across the North Bay; 0.50"-1.00" across the Bay Area, East Bay, South Bay, and southern Salinas Valley; 1.00"-1.25" around the Monterey Bay; 1.25"-1.75" in the Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia Range, and Diablo Range. Isolated higher amounts up to 3.00" will be possible especially in the higher peaks of the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range. Any heavier showers and/or thunderstorms will be capable of producing lightning, brief heavy downpours, and gusty, erratic winds. This amount of rainfall would lead to minor/nuisance flooding concerns across much of the Central Coast.
Tuesday night will be a cold one, with the coldest temperatures expected across interior Central Coast with lows dropping into the upper 30's to lower 40's. From the previous forecaster: "With the recent rainfall, conditions will feel colder than what the thermometer reads - please take care of people, pets, and plants.
Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that the upper-level low will weaken and shift east Wednesday into Thursday with the help of upper-level shortwave ridging nosing in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This feature will quickly get flattened by an upper-level shortwave trough, putting the region under the influence of the eastern periphery of the high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will translate to a warming and drying trend Wednesday through Saturday."
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Gusty west to northwest winds are expected this afternoon before winds shift southerly overnight ahead of the incoming low pressure system. Rain chances increase early tomorrow morning with drizzle to light rain possible 12Z through 15Z. The first round of showers arrives around 15Z with moderate rain expected to continue into the afternoon. Temporary fluctuations in visibility and ceiling height are possible as showers move over TAF sites. For LVK, MRY, and SNS, rain chances increase after the end of this TAF period (late Monday morning into the early afternoon). Thunderstorm chances increase after 18Z with a 20-25% chance of thunderstorms across the Bay Area and a 20-30% chance across the Central Coast. Thunderstorms could develop as early as 15Z for portions of the Bay Area but confidence is lower as there is only a 10-15% chance at that time. Currently did not include thunderstorms in the TAFs but this may be adjusted in the next TAF issuance as confidence increases.
Vicinity of SFO, Gusty west to northwest winds expected with some potential for gusts to around 30 knots Monday afternoon/evening. Drizzle to light rain is possible at SFO as early as 12Z with higher confidence in moderate rain/showers reaching SFO by 15Z. Rain will then continue through the rest of the TAF period. There is a 20-25% chance of thunderstorms impacting SFO after 18Z Monday as the low pressure system enters the Central Coast. Currently do not have t- storms in the TAF but they may be added in the next TAF issuance as confidence continues to increase. The most likely timeframe for t- storm development at SFO will be 18Z Monday to 03Z Tuesday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Moderate west to northwest winds continue through the TAF period. Winds gradually shift southerly Monday morning as low pressure system moves inland. Rain chances increase as early as 15Z when showers approach the Monterey Peninsula. Higher confidence in more moderate rain reaching MRY and SNS Monday afternoon/evening with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are most likely just after the end of this TAF period (21Z Monday to 06Z Tuesday).
(today through Friday) Issued at 1123 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Hazardous conditions continue across the waters through Monday afternoon with rough seas and significant wave heights up to 12 feet expected. Gusty, strong to near gale, northerly winds continue to strengthen over the outer waters as a developing storm system approaches coastal California. Gale force to near gale force gusts will develop across the far northern outer waters and along the Big Sur coast Sunday afternoon. Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected Monday through late Tuesday over the coastal waters as a low pressure system moves into the Central Coast. Mariners can expect to experience locally rough seas, gusty winds, and steep waves if they encounter a thunderstorm.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Monday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
