Issued at 604 PM PST Sun Feb 15 2026
The rain has been steady in the North Bay, but has recently moved into the rest of the Bay Area in a more organized fashion. Rain totals so far are generally less than 0.5"; outside of roughly 1" in the Santa Rosa Area, the Santa Cruz Mountains, and the Santa Lucia Mountains; and up to 2" in the coastal North Bay mountains. That's more or less on track with the forecast. Since the system is moving so slowly, many locations have waited all day for the onset of steady rain. On the other hand, the slow speed is keeping a long rain duration as as the rain will linger through the night and well into Monday morning. The 00Z sounding didn't yield very impressive measurements for instability this evening. Despite good low level lapse rates, the MLCAPE is only 33 J/kg, less than the 35 J/kg of MLCIN. We did have a decent 16 kts of 0-1 km shear. High shear, low CAPE environments have historically proven to be tornado producers, but the CAPE is probably too low, and the current radar presentation looks fairly well behaved for now. I don't think it's going to happen during this shift. A thunderstorm here or there is still possible, but the instability will fall off with the setting Sun. If anything does spin up, CAMS are indicating the best chance for rotation is around 8-10 PM. The big question in the forecast remains how strong the low will be tomorrow, and when and where it will make landfall. Somewhere between Monterey County and San Mateo County seems likely, with the latest trends bringing the strongest winds and heaviest to the coastal mountains surrounding Big Sur. Cut-off lows are like Plinko chips though. It's really hard to predict where they will end up. By Monday evening the rain will likely transition to isolated showers in the cold, post frontal environment before the reinforcing front moves through Tuesday.
, Issued at 150 PM PST Sun Feb 15 2026 (This evening through Monday)
An occluded area of low pressure remains parked off the NorCal coast this afternoon. The "business" side of the surface low continues to produce rain, heavy showers, an occasional rumble of thunder over the waters, and gusty winds. Rainfall amounts over the last 12 hours shows less than a tenth across the interior locations and a 0.10-0.50 coastal mountains and locally up to 1.00 inch North Bay coast. Winds have generally been gusting 25-35 mph with local gusts 50-60 mph. Strongest winds so far have been Point Reyes and N Bay Interior Mts.
The next 12-24 hours will get real interesting as the longwave pattern and associated meso-scale features become more clear. Yesterday I mentioned the offshore low getting a boost from some upper level jet features. Well, today's CAMS show the cyclogenesis really tapping into the upper level jet. Today's guidance shows a cyclonic curved jet max rounding the base of the upper low off the coast late tonight and Monday. The left exit region of this curved jet will take aim at the Central Coast. Some guidance puts the focus more northward, but most keep it closer to Monterey Bay. This set up is a prime example to foster rapid cyclogenesis. Not a "bomb", but rapid nonetheless. Latest HRRR/HREF/WRF models drop the surface low to 995-ish mb. The newly deepened low will drift NE into the CEntral Valley following the path of the jet max overhead Monday and Monday night. This rapid deepening will facilitate very strong winds, heavy rain, and potential for tstorms. For the wind, didn't go all in as time/strength due to lower confidence, but felt enough confidence to issue a Wind Adv for the Central Coast. Highest peaks could see gusts up to 60 mph. Areas outside of the Wind Adv will still be windy, similar to today. As for thunderstorms, SPC still has the Central Coast in a Marginal risk. The combo of moisture, daytime heating, jet dynamics, and cold air aloft filtering in will allow for a few stronger storms. Given some weak shear will need to monitor for any rotating cells. Speaking of colder air aloft, the air mass will cool behind the low dropping snow levels across the region to less than 5k. Therefore, some high elevation snow will be possible over the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Issued a Winter Wx Advisory for area above 3k feet beginning Monday afternoon continuing through Wednesday.
..issued at 240 PM PST Sun Feb 15 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
The surface low continues to pull NE while another boundary arrives from the N Monday night into Tuesday. There maybe a brief lull in precip before another round of steadier precip arrives Tuesday and Tuesday night. Precip will ease once again early Wednesday before ramping back up with a third system late in the week. Lastest guidance from our hydro partners keeps our mainstem rivers in check with less than 10% for flooding, but urban/small stream issues will likely build through out the week as more rain piles up. Rainfall totals Tue/Wed: 0.50-1.0 inches most areas and 1.0-2.5 inches Santa Cruz Mts/Santa Lucia Mts. More rain Thurs/Sat: most areas 0.25-0.75 inches and locally 1.0-1.5 inches Santa Cruz Mts/Santa Lucia Mts. The subsequent system will also usher in much colder air with dropping snow levels. The bulk of the snow accumulation for the Winter Wx Adv will accumulate during this timeframe Tue/Wed. Especially the mts above Big Sur with 20 inches with in the realm of possibility. While the N and E Bay arean't in the Winter Wx Adv at the moment they'll likely see a few inches of snow. Given the lowering trend of snow levels would not be surprised to see minor accumulations along the Santa Cruz/Santa Clara county line above 2000 feet. Not buying off on it just yet, but for the snow lovers out there some guidance really drops snow levels across the N Bay later in the week with a few wet flakes below 1500 feet. Stay tuned for that.
In addition to precip we'll be holding onto gusty winds too. Instead of being focused over the Central Coast they'll become more widespread. May need to think about Wind Adv later in the week, but conf isn't high enough yet to issue it. The combo of wind and snow over the higher peaks will make for poor conditions with potential vsby issues and trees burdened by snow coming down.
Lastly, while snow levels drop it goes with out saying that overnight lows will drop. The combo of cold overnight lows Wednesday through Friday will lead to dangerous conditions for those without adequate shelter. A mixture of Cold Wx and Extreme Cold products will likely be issued with temperatures in the upper 20s and 30s.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 332 PM PST Sun Feb 15 2026
Generally MVFR to low end VFR with mid- to high level clouds across the region. Strong southerly winds will continue through the day with some IFR possible within a band of strong showers expected to come through the region through the next few hours. Winds will abate through the overnight hours but will remain rather breezy. Early Monday morning and beyond, high resolution models are showing possible cyclogenesis near the coast and heading across the Bay Area and Central Coast, making the forecast rather uncertain, especially for wind speed and direction, for the latter half of the 24-hour TAF period. The general trend is for the winds to shift towards the northwest through the day on Monday, remaining strong and breezy with widespread gusts of 20-30 kt while widespread rain continues in additional to a chance for thunderstorms.
Vicinity of SFO, Generally MVFR-low end VFR conditions at the terminal. Breezy south winds continue through the evening as a strong rain band approaches the terminal. Winds abate overnight with cyclogenesis making the forecast rather uncertain beyond this point, but in general expect a shift to a strong and breezy northwest wind through Monday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR to low end VFR across the region and through the TAF period. Breezy south winds, especially at SNS, with scattered showers continue through the evening. The main rain band arrives overnight with IFR conditions possible in the strongest showers. Potential cyclogenesis near Monterey Bay early Monday morning makes the TAF forecast uncertain beyond around 15Z, with a general shift to a more westerly wind with strong wind gusts at the terminals.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 332 PM PST Sun Feb 15 2026
A band of intense rain with embedded thunderstorms is moving through the waters with building southerly winds, in addition to light showers across the waters. This is the start of multiple storm systems moving through the waters over the next week. Expect fresh to strong southerly breezes to generate rough seas with gale force gusts along the coast. Winds will abate tonight but rebuild into a strong northwest breeze on Monday. Stronger winds are likely to last through midweek as a high westerly swell arrives. Thunderstorm chances increase behind the initial front and linger through Tuesday.
Issued at 556 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026
The combination of spring tides and storm surge will bring minor high tide flooding to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay through Tuesday. Up to 1.0 ft of inundation is expected in the San Francisco Bay, with up to 1.5 ft in the Monterey Bay. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to at 9:34 AM Sunday, 10:16 AM Monday, and 10:58 AM Tuesday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and throughout the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PST Monday for CAZ516>518-528- 530.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ517-518.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
