Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1047 am PDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Update

Issued at 930 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026

With increasing confidence in heat impacts continuing through Thursday, the Heat Advisory has been extended through 10 PM Thursday for the inland regions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Despite a couple degrees of cooling from Wednesday's highs, the cumulative heat impacts will continue and a moderate risk of heat- related illnesses continues into Thursday.

DialH

Short Term

, Issued at 1230 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 (Today and tonight)

The weak upper level disturbance embedded in the broader scale ridging can be seen on satellite shifting inland overnight. Unfortunately it offers no relief in cooling temperatures and will reinforce offshore flow as it continues to exit east during the day today. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of our area through Wednesday night, however the advisory for the immediate coastline from Sonoma County south to Santa Cruz County was allowed to expire on schedule. Todays high temperatures will continue to run 15-25 degrees above normal with overnight lows generally running 10- 20 degrees above normal, offering little to no night time relief to the moderate to major HeatRisk we'll see through Wednesday across the interior. Despite a return of stratus along the coastline, expect the marine layer to continue to hold primarily to the coast today while remaining compressed and fighting fetches of offshore flow.

Follow these tips to avoid heat exhaustion and heatstroke:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

Long Term

..issued at 1230 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

The synoptic scale ridging across our region will be reinforced through mid-week in the wake of the weak upper level system to our north exiting east today. Temperatures today through Wednesday will be very similar with little day to day variability for most locations. Another weak upper level system develops offshore for the middle to end of the upcoming work week, and will combine with a more potent disturbance embedded in the polar jet to begin to lower H50 heights by Thursday with a return to more normal temperatures for the end of the week into the weekend, when daytime highs are expected to fall back to or below normal by the weekend.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A shallow marine layer (around 500 feet in depth) has returned allowing for coastal stratus and fog to return to the coastal sites. As surface temperatures warm, expecting mostly VFR conditions to persist through the early evening before a return of stratus and/or fog returns to coastal sites late this evening and into Tuesday morning. The greatest potential for sub-IFR will be at HAF, MRY, and SNS with the rest of the region remaining VFR throughout the TAF period. Onshore winds will increase today and be slightly stronger than previous days before easing after sunset and more so into Tuesday morning. Any low ceilings and/or fog are likely to dissipate between 16Z-17Z Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Onshore winds will increase by late morning and persist into early evening before diminishing. West to northwest winds will be strongest this afternoon through mid- evening with winds forecast to be up to 16kt. While there is a low probability (generally 20-25%) of sub-MVFR from 12Z-17Z Tuesday, have these out of the forecast at this time.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Onshore winds will increase this afternoon before diminishing after sunset. Sub-IFR conditions are forecast to return to the region late this evening and persist into Tuesday morning with generally moderate to high confidence of occurrence. Low ceiling and fog will begin to dissipate between 16Z- 17Z Tuesday with afternoon heating.

Marine

(today through Saturday) Issued at 930 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026

An extensive low stratus and fog layer is steadily advancing eastward across the coastal waters and will reach much of the coastline throughout the morning and into the afternoon. A gentle to moderate breeze and slight to moderate wave heights persist into midweek. Winds increase and wave heights build, seas becoming rough across the outer waters, Friday into the weekend.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ503-504-506-508- 510-512>518.

PZ, None.

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