Discussion, UPDATED National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1021 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
, New AVIATION,
.KEY MESSAGES, Updated at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
- Rain showers with a slight chance for embedded thunderstorms today
- Unsettled weather returns Saturday and persists into next week
Issued at 927 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
The forecast remains on track this morning. A slow moving upper level low will wobble slightly south along the coast over the next 24 hours. Numerous bands of light to moderate showers will move onshore during that time, with the rainfall totals expected to be beneficial with little to no flooding concerns. Winds will be gusty at times primarily along the coastal ranges this afternoon, before easing this evening. The strongest gusts will be along the coast from Monterey south through Big Sur this afternoon with a 60% chance of gusts up to 35mph, and a 15% chance farther north in the East Bay Hills. Similar to the winds, the coastal ranges will see the most rainfall today and tonight with portions of the Santa Cruz mountains and the Santa Lucias receiving over an inch. Most inland areas and lower lying coastal locations will be lucky to see a 0.25" of rainfall. Beyond today and tonight, we mostly dry out for Thursday and Friday. Rain chances Saturday afternoon increase across the North Bay, then spread south across the remainder of our area Saturday night into Sunday.
, Issued at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 (Today and tonight)
A gale force low pressure system off the Central Coast will ride northward, parallel to the California Coast today. It will weaken as it does so, allowing the pressure gradient to relax and southerly winds to relatively diminish. Rain showers with a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms will continue today. The three ingredients needed for a thunderstorm of lift, instability, and moisture will all be in place, even if the instability and moisture are on the low end. The low shear environment and nearly uni-directional wind profile will result in a low potential for any kind of rotation. Impacts wise, drivers can expect slick roadways and ponding on roadways. If a thunderstorm were to develop, lightning, locally heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding, pea size hail, and erratic/gusty winds are all potential hazards.
..issued at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)
Dry conditions and near normal temperatures return Thursday and persist into Friday as the surface low dissipates and surface high pressure builds into the West. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that upper-level heights will begin falling Saturday. Upper-level longwave troughing will develop off the West Coast and be the primary driver of the weather for the rest of the long term. ECMWF Ens and GFS Ens are in agreement that an upper-level low gets pinched off the longwave trough and a surface low develops by Saturday. There is uncertainty after the weekend stemming from the progression and strength of the low feature. While confidence is still high that it will rain from Saturday on, there is about a half an inch of spread each day of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The official total rainfall forecast seems to be beneficial right now with no mainstem river flooding expected, largely in part to the recent dry spell. Winds will also increase Sunday into next week with low probabilities (less than 20%) for gusts in excess of 45 mph.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1019 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
VFR is forecast to prevail at most TAF sites, with the exception of intermittent MVFR ceilings at KSTS, KHAF, and KAPC. The main low pressure feature to the west will remain stationary and bring waves of SHRA and south to east winds. Confidence in precip is high, but confidence in wind gust magnitudes is medium and the latest TAF set adjusts winds downward by around 5 to 8 knots. By this evening, winds will trend more easterly and continue to diminish. In fact, at KAPC and KSTS, NE'ly winds are forecast in later periods of the TAF. The greatest coverage of SHRA is anticipated to between now and through 02Z, though areas such as OAK, SJC, and to some degree APC, may see a lower coverage due to terrain features to the west and south of these sites. TS cannot be completely discounted and the best chances, around 5-10%, reside at TAF sites along the Pacific Coast.
Vicinity of SFO, SE'ly winds near or above 13 knots will likely encourage a SE plan config through the afternoon hours. Some guidance has trended a little quicker with the potential for winds to drop down to or below 10 knots by 00Z, but the model consensus is closer to 02Z. In addition, brief wind shifts to more of an easterly wind cannot be discounted, with more erratic wind directions near SHRA. Confidence is high that between 01Z-03Z the coverage of precipitation will diminish and winds will subside such that there's more flexibility in runway configs. While VFR is anticipated, IMC due to cigs at or below FL050 are forecast.
SFO Bridge Approach, IMC due to cigs at or below FL050 are forecast through the TAF cycle.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Rain showers will continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours. IFR visibility, especially at MRY, cannot be discounted with brief stints of SHRA/+SHRA. South to east winds are forecast, though confidence in gust magnitude is low. I've opted to omit gusts from KSNS due to the weaker wind field. At MRY, however, gusts in the 22-25 knot range are advertised as winds aloft here remain stronger.
(today through Monday) Issued at 343 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
Gusty winds continue through late morning before diminishing. Gale force gusts remain possible across the inner coastal waters through late this morning. Winds will generally be out of east to southeast but will remain variable through Thursday thanks to a low pressure system linger offshore of California. Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms persist through early Thursday. Moderate seas continue before seas increase and unsettled weather returns over the weekend as the next storm system approaches.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
