, Issued at 1253 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026 (This afternoon through Sunday)
The upper ridge of high pressure is nosing over North Bay today while an upper low is off the coast of Northern Baja. This is setting up rapidly warming temperatures across a broad swath in North Bay and beyond to the Northeast. As this ridge pushes on the top of the upper low, winds have been gusty across many part of the Bay Area. An upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska is starting to pressure on the ridge, forcing it farther south, thus pushing the cutoff low south too. As everything shifts southward over the next 24 to 36 hours we'll see the gusty winds shift from North Bay through the Bay Area and eventually into the Central Coast. This too will cause temperatures to follow the ridge axis farther southward too. While Sonoma County has been the warm place today, tomorrow it will be into South Bay and Central Coast. The NBM, for tomorrow, shows limited spread (~2 degrees) in the ensembles for North Bay with wider spread (~3 to 5 degrees) over South Bay and Central coast. This provides some comfort that models are handling the situation well enough. Still, with the forecast today the NBM 5.0 was used for temps tomorrow. This is about what NBM 4.3 75th percentile is at. In other words, the forecast is leaning a little warmer than the operational NBM deterministic.
..issued at 1253 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
Onshore flow returns to the service area Sunday and Monday. This will bring a broad scale cool down for Monday and Tuesday, more towards climatological normals. This a be a result of a synoptic scale pattern shift. The Jet Stream will take a dive south into Oregon, just close enough to impact our general flow. However, this will be brief hit as the Jet shifts quickly east and allows the next upper ridge to build. Models are projecting the next warm up to being on Wednesday, bringing us back to about where we are this weekend. By Friday there is, on average, a 10 degree spread in the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles, so there are still some details to be worked out. That said, the Friday 500 mb height anomaly clusters are in pretty good agreement. On top of that, the EFI and SoT are 0.90+ for South Bay and the Central Coast for Thurs and Fri. At this point, things are looking solid for the warmer side of the solutions during the second half of the week.
Teaser, You think this is warm? Wait until the week of the 15th. CPC has our area with 70-80% probability of being above normal between March 15-21. And the whiskers on some of the temp models out that far are starting to reach into the 90s for SJC. If you are a summer person, it's coming for you.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 356 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Offshore winds and high clouds will continue through the evening. The wind direction will trend more onshore overnight and through Sunday morning. With low dew points and high clouds, there is little chance for fog formation tonight.
Vicinity of SFO, The wind direction is hard to pin down here, but will remain light to gentle through the night. By Sunday afternoon the winds will become more consistent out of the typical WNW direction.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Onshore winds will decrease through the evening before flipping to gentle to moderate drainage flow overnight. There is about a 10 percent chance for low ceilings to develop around sunrise, but VFR conditions are most likely.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 356 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026
The remainder of Saturday will continue with generally light to moderate conditions South of Point Reyes and fresh to strong conditions to the North. Gale Warnings start Sunday for coastal waters North of the Golden Gate Bridge. Gale conditions will spread southward Monday through Wednesday.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
