, Issued at 1251 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 (This evening through Sunday)
As of 1:15 PM, visible satellite depicts thin high clouds dispersed throughout the Bay Area moving into Central California with some additional patchy altocumulus and mildly hazy skies. As yesterday's weak upper low has moved southeastward, 500 mb heights are expected to increase slightly, making the marine layer slightly shallower (around 600-800 feet deep) than this morning.
Coastal stratus is expected to return back to the coast late this evening with ceilings below 500 feet, slowly moving inland throughout the night. As mid level clouds thin out, cooling in the inland valleys will allow fog to develop at the surface even before the marine stratus reaches into inland areas. Widespread visibility reductions and mist are expected throughout the Bay Area within the marine layer with patchy fog, especially in the North Bay Valleys. Coastal status is less likely in the Monterey Bay as clouds could be shadowed by the Santa Cruz Mountains with Northwesterly surface slow. Radiation fog could still develop in the Salinas Valley as winds will be light. Low clouds partially clear out to the coast late in the morning yielding to briefly partly cloudy skies for the East Bay and south of San Francisco. More widespread and deeper clouds surge into the Bay Area in the afternoon, associated with the weakening front moving southward from the Pacific Northwest. Cloudy skies overtake the Bay Area by evening with a slight (10-20%) chance for spotty drizzle through around midnight.
For this system, not much change in the rainfall forecast through Monday: 20-40% chance of measurable rainfall along the North Bay US-101 corridor into Santa Rosa. For totals above 0.10", around a 10% chance for the southern Marin Hills, with increasing chances farther northward, up to 50% chance for the hills north of the Russian River.
..issued at 1251 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
Partly cloudy skies linger Monday, with the next opportunity for rainfall beginning Monday night as a shortwave trough moves into Northern and Central California. Best chances for widespread light to locally moderate rainfall will occur during the day Tuesday with scattered showers possible Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Models are closing in on a moderate confidence rainfall range around 0.2-0.5" for coastal and valley cities across the region with higher totals possible locally in the coastal slopes.
An upper level ridge will create briefly quiet and less cloudy conditions Thursday and Friday with clouds returning Saturday and increasing model agreement on a colder and deeper trough from the Gulf of Alaska to bring another soaking rainfall throughout the region. The NBM brings high temperatures lower elevations into the mid to upper 50s. There remains uncertainty in the forecast though current 850mb temperatures appear cold enough to deliver a dusting of snow to the tallest peaks in Monterey County.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1018 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
Satellite imagery this morning shows the marine stratus being a bit more stubborn than forecast over the SF Bay so did start to delay the demise of the stratus at the bay terminals. RAP soundings still show us mixing out this afternoon so do think we loose the stratus at the bay terminals, but it's just going to take a bit longer than we were forecasting. Forecast soundings from the RAP show the boundary layer remaining dry through the night, but highlight the marine layer slamming back into the Bay area Sunday morning. Besides the marine layer, we'll have clear skies with calm winds, so more radiational fog looks to be a potential problem again as well for sites like SNS/LVK/STS. The RAP doesn't really show the marine layer moving back in until 15z Sunday, so did delay a little the return of IFR cigs. Once it comes back though, that marine layer may be with us for the rest of the day on Sunday.
The marine layer fog/stratus impacting the North Bay is expected to linger through late morning, but clear to VFR early this afternoon. High clouds expected to move into the region from off the coast through the period. High confidence in LIFR to VLIFR returning again tonight/Sunday to the North Bay valley areas and STS/APC TAF sites. Flight conditions reduce to MVFR beginning as early as 05-06Z Sunday, going down to IFR/LIFR/VLIFR conditions (1/2-1/4SM visibility with cigs down to 100-200ft) around 09-10Z. The severe reductions are expected to last through the morning and end of the TAF period in the North Bay, similar to today's conditions, though timing/intensity will need further refining in future updates. Sfc winds will be light and variable through the period, and generally west-southwesterly in the lowest 1000ft.
Vicinity of SFO, With a westerly wind, downsloping component of the wind will help clear out the field first, but will take longer to clear the stratus out in the bay. Lower confidence in what stratus will look like Sunday, though HRRR cig forecasts are supported by RAP soundings with low cigs developing over the Bay once again, it's just a question of how long does it take.
SFO Bridge Approach, SFO may be in good shape with the stratus, but will take closer to 21z for the bridge approaches to clear out today.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, SJC is near the edge of the stratus deck and will likely clear out next, with OAK taking the longest to lose the fog. We're expecting another round of valley fog/bay stratus on Sunday, though RAP soundings keep the low levels of SJC drier than OAK and SFO, so perhaps SJC may be able to have better conditions on Sunday than its neighboring bay airports.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus/fog lifted early this morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through the day today. Dense fog/low stratus is expected to develop again tonight; confidence in whether IFR vs. LIFR conditions will prevail, and onset/cessation timing and how long fog/stratus conditions might prevail is lower here, so left at TEMPO for now. Prevailing condition timing/intensity will be refined in future forecast. Surface winds will be more variable at MRY, but the sea breeze will keep 10-15 kt south-southwesterly winds at STS this afternoon before diminishing again tonight into early Sunday.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 348 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
Light to gentle northwest winds prevail across the coastal waters today while light southwest winds develop over the far outer waters north of Point Reyes. Seas mainly moderate through Sunday before slightly increasing early next week. A cold front gradually moves southeastward over the coastal waters and bays Sunday and Sunday night resulting in an increase in north-northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday.
Issued at 205 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today at all Pacific Coast beaches, through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to 22 feet.
Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
