Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

117 pm PDT Fri apr 3 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 107 PM PDT Fri Apr 3 2026 (This evening through Saturday)

Breezy offshore winds continue through early tomorrow morning. The strongest wind gusts have largely been confined to the higher elevations of the North Bay Interior Mountains and the Diablo Range. The strongest gust reported so far was 67 mph at the Mt. St. Helena West Station (elevation of 4340 ft) at 7:30 AM this morning. At that time the SFO-WMC pressure gradient peaked at -10 mb. Winds have since come down slightly but are likely to increase again during the afternoon and evening hours. The SFO-WMC gradient has regained strengthen over the last few hours (after initially weakening from early this morning) with the 11AM observation coming in at -9.80 mb. GFS guidance most closely resembles the observed SFO-WMC gradient and keeps offshore winds continuing into Sunday. Another, brief, round of breezy winds is possible across the higher elevations early Saturday morning before winds decrease through the remainder of the day.

High temperatures today are seasonably warm in the 60s along the coast and 70s across the interior. This is running about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year and is the result of upper level ridging and surface high pressure building in. The warming trend continues into Saturday with high temperatures in the 70s to 80s expected (15-20 degrees above normal). Currently only Minor HeatRisk is forecast today and tomorrow thanks to good overnight cooling. Light, offshore winds prevail on Saturday which will play a role in keeping coastal areas warmer thanks to an effect called downsloping. Downsloping occurs when wind is forced down the leeward side of the mountain with an air parcel compressing (and warming) as it sinks. This type of setup is favorable for bringing much warmer and drier temperatures directly along the coast compared to the normally cooler temperatures we observe. For the afternoon forecast package, did adjust high temperatures up slightly for Saturday and Sunday given that the deterministic NBM was running much cooler than other models. Given the very dry atmosphere, fog is not expected to develop tonight with HREF only showing high clouds moving through.

Long Term

..issued at 107 PM PDT Fri Apr 3 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)

Above normal temperatures continue into Sunday with highs remaining 15-20 degrees above normal. This keeps temperatures in the 80s across the interior and 70s along the coastline. There is a little more uncertainty with regards to Sunday's high temperatures than Saturday's. On Saturday, the center of the upper level ridge is centered more over California while on Sunday the ridge is progressing rapidly eastward. As the ridge departs, the SFO-WMC pressure gradient is expected to reverse (becoming positive) and onshore flow returns. Currently, offshore winds are likely to remain through at least Sunday morning but potentially into early Sunday afternoon. The longer offshore winds stick around, the more surface temperatures are able to warm. The current thinking is that temperatures will peak early to mid afternoon and start decreasing as the sea breeze/onshore winds kick in. Another factor is the potential for the marine layer to redevelop, bringing a return of coastal stratus and fog. The marine layer now looks to return overnight Sunday into Monday than Sunday afternoon/evening. This limits the impact it would have on Sunday's high temperatures but it's worthwhile noting that the signal is there for the marine layer to redevelop heading into next week. There is the potential for some daily high temperature records to be broken Saturday and Sunday (one site being Half Moon Bay) depending on how high temperatures warm.

Temperatures cool slightly, becoming seasonably warm, into the 70s to low 80s across the interior Monday and Tuesday as upper level ridging progresses eastward and zonal flow returns. The coast will be noticeably cooler with seasonal high temperatures in the 60s expected. The cooling trend continues through late next week as an upper level trough moves through the West Coast. This system will bring us our next chance of beneficial rain. Totals are still light with the majority of the region seeing less than a quarter of an inch. The higher elevations of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range may see between 0.25 to 0.5" of rain. There is also the potential for this system to bring locally gustier onshore

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM PDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Dry air and offshore winds support VFR for the 18z TAFs.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Northeast wind near 5 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and early evening. Wind shifting to light southeast tonight and continuing Saturday before shifting to northwest near 10 knots late Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. East to southeast winds 5 to 15 knots shifting to northwesterly 10 knots in the afternoon and early evening. Winds shifting to east to southeast 5 to 15 knots tonight and Saturday morning.

Marine

(today through Wednesday) Issued at 1052 AM PDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Fresh to strong northerly breezes will persist over the northern outer waters through today. Winds and seas will abate tonight and through the weekend. Light to moderate northerly breezes prevail this weekend and into next week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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