, Issued at 1254 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026 (Today and tonight)
Showers are spreading across the Bay Area and the Central Coast tonight as a plume of moisture reaches California. So far the focus of the rainfall has been the North Bay, but the rest of the region has also seen scattered rain showers building as the dry lower layer as seen on last evening's 00Z OAK sounding erodes away. Rain totals through Wednesday morning will range from 1 to 2 inches in the North Bay valleys and up to 4 inches in the North Bay mountains, and will progressively decrease towards the south, with rain totals of 0.5 to 1 inch expected to the west of the Berkeley-San Leandro Hills and the San Mateo-Santa Cruz Mountains, including the city of San Francisco, around 0.2-0.5 inches in the rain shadowed valleys of the South Bay and interior East Bay, and a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch in the Monterey-Salinas region. The interior Central Coast, and the southern half of the Big Sur coastline, will receive a few sprinkles in the wettest locations. Flooding concerns are minimal and are generally limited to nuisance flooding across the North Bay.
Through the rest of the day, high resolution modeling suggests that the North Bay will continue to get the most consistent rainfall with scattered to widespread showers across the Bay Area and isolated showers in the Monterey Bay region. As the axis of rainfall pushes to the south, it begins to lose its connection to the moisture plume, resulting in decreasing shower coverage across the Bay Area and terrain-favored regions within the Central Coast tonight into Wednesday morning.
High temperatures throughout the region will range from the middle to upper 50s across the North Bay, to the lower to middle 60s across San Francisco, Oakland, and the western San Mateo coast, the middle to upper 60s in the interior East Bay, South Bay, and Monterey Bay regions, and the lower to middle 70s in the valleys of the interior Central Coast.
..issued at 1254 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026 (Wednesday through Monday)
Behind the moisture plume, ridging should return to the region and result in a warming and drying trend for the latter part of the week, with high temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to the middle 70s through Saturday. In the wake of the rainfall, some morning fog is possible across the valleys on Wednesday morning. Otherwise conditions remain generally benign during this period with light to gentle northwest winds developing each afternoon and evening.
Attention then turns towards a cut-off low that will approach the West Coast Sunday into the early part of next week. The latest review of the ensemble model cluster analysis suggests slightly greater confidence that the low will impact California, and while there are still subtle differences over how the low will evolve, all clusters generally agree that significant rainfall is not expected, although some instability-driven showers remain possible. CPC outlooks suggest that temperatures above seasonal averages are likely through the first week of March, and precipitation totals lean towards values below seasonal averages for the same period. For context, from March 3 to March 9, high temperatures in downtown San Francisco hover around 61 degrees, and said station's average total rainfall for this period is slightly above three-quarters of an inch.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 324 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
MVFR ceilings have developed in the North Bay valleys and the immediate coast of the San Mateo Peninsula, but the bulk of the region remains at VFR with mid- to high level clouds. Southerly winds will build this afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 20 to 25 knots at favored terminals. Scattered to widespread showers continue across the North Bay into the SF Bay Area through the day, with MVFR-IFR ceilings possible with the strongest showers and most consistent rainfall. Shower coverage begins to decrease as the axis of rainfall moves southward this evening. Moderate confidence on the occurrence of showers across the Monterey Bay region in the late afternoon and evening hours. Behind the rainfall, mist and potential fog develop in the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, MVFR-low end VFR through the day with scattered showers developing into stratiform rain. Southerly winds will develop this afternoon gusting up to 20 kt. This evening, showers will begin to push south of the terminal, with the potential for stratus, mist, and potentially fog to develop overnight into Wednesday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR with mid-to high level clouds through the day. A moderate southerly breeze develops in the afternoon with winds at MRY taking a more westerly component while those at SNS funnel through the Salinas Valley. There is low to moderate confidence on how the rain holds up as it moves south from the SF Bay Area. If the rain holds together, expect some showers during the evening and overnight hours, dissipating through Wednesday morning near or after the end of the TAF period.
(today through Sunday) Issued at 324 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
Light to moderate rain will pass through the coastal waters into the overnight hours. Winds stay breezy then ease by Wednesday. Dry weather prevails late for the second half of the week with light seas.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
