, Issued at 1145 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026 (Today and tonight)
The effects of a progressive, short wave upper trough beginning to transect our area to the north overnight are already being felt over the North Bay with drier air mixing closer to the surface and likely to hold off a deeper marine layer push into some of the North Bay valleys for the remainder of the overnight into early Wednesday morning. Where the marine layer does make inroads tonight, we'll see clearing a little sooner than what we saw on Tuesday. While clearing is expected along the coast, the strengthening onshore flow will maintain influence across coastal areas, so dropped highs a few degrees from NBM for most of the immediate coast line, and may need to be lowered further based on trends later this morning. Otherwise temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer inland than Tuesday, except for the North Bay where the temps will jump into the 80s to low 90s.
As the upper trough shifts east later this afternoon, gradient forcing becomes better aligned for strengthening northwest onshore flow area wide, with gusty winds developing this afternoon into the evening hours, especially for higher elevations and channeled valleys. There's some uncertainty in just how far the marine layer will progress inland tonight into early Thursday morning. A drier airmass in the wake of the cold front and easing winds after midnight may somewhat limit the marine layer's inland progress despite the marine layer slightly strengthening just offshore.
..issued at 1140 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)
Not much change in the extended forecast with only subtle variations in daytime highs Thursday and Friday, especially inland. We begin feeling the influence of the deepening trough along the Pacific Coastline later in the day on Friday. H85 temps peak in the low 20s(C) Thursday and Friday and are down to around 14C-16C for the weekend into next week, which will result in surface temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal for the weekend into the beginning of next week. There is a signal for some potential unimpactful light rain later Monday into Tuesday, there is poor consensus in deterministic guidance evolves the timing and position of the trough. However, ensemble guidance provides high confidence in the overall synoptic troughing persisting beyond the current extended forecast.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 449 AM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026
Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR with high clouds streaming in from the north. A dry cold front will add complexity to the forecast with the aforementioned high clouds and an increase in onshore winds that'll result in mixing of the atmosphere. Onshore winds will increase through the day with gusts of 20-30 knots expected this afternoon and evening. Relatively lower confidence in the forecast, especially in the return of stratus tonight. Guidance/models suggest that it'll be a later arrival than what has been happening with ceilings likely in the low-end MVFR range. Highest confidence along the coast with lowest confidence in the interior.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently IFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR by late-morning in the 16Z-17Z timeframe. Westerly winds will increase through the day with gusts of 30-35 knots likely this afternoon and evening. Moderate (45%) confidence in a ceiling returning to the terminal tonight - it'll likely be low-end MVFR.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently LIFR with westerly flow at MRY and IFR with westerly flow at SNS. Fog is being observed across the Central Coast so there is the potential for both terminals to further deteriorate this morning, but confidence is low. Moderate (60%) confidence on ceilings on the cusp of IFR/MVFR returning to the terminals tonight.
(today through Monday) Issued at 449 AM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026
Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected at least through Saturday due to strong northerly breezes. Gale force gusts are expected for the outer waters and the coastal jet regions. Moderate seas will prevail today, building to become rough tomorrow and into the weekend. Conditions will slowly begin to improve Sunday.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0- 10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
