Issued at 811 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
An upper level cut-off low pressure is approximately 400 miles west- southwest of the Monterey Bay and has allowed the marine layer to deepen to around 750 feet in depth. As such, this resulted in less fog this morning and further inland extent of stratus (ceilings between 500-1000 feet). Inland areas are likely to see clearing skies by late morning and more so into the afternoon. Meanwhile, coastal locations have the potential to see low clouds throughout much of the day. The aforementioned low pressure is resulting in cooling conditions today compared to previous days! The forecast remains on track with no updates anticipated at this time.
RGass
, Issued at 1157 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026 (Tonight through Saturday)
Coastal stratus will be on the increase tonight and Friday morning. The onshore SFO-SAC pressure gradient has increased to 2.5 mb. Strong thermal ridging aloft, a compressed marine layer combining with daily solar input resulting in well above normal October temperatures has essentially reached its peak. Inland daytime high temperatures will still be warm Friday, but closer to 30 year (1991-2020) normal highs for October 9th.
Later Friday, Friday night and especially Saturday northwest winds will result in cold air advection. A major pattern shift will usher in strong upper level troughing i.e. much cooler air arriving here Saturday. The marine layer lower level temperature inversion will fully erode Saturday allowing plenty of vertical mixing. This pattern shift will bring a noticeable cool down, especially for inland areas.
..issued at 1157 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
Much cooler air from the surface to aloft continues to arrive Sunday. The strong cold core 500 mb low will sweep southward over our coastal waters with land overlap, resulting in gusty winds over the coastal waters and areas of gusty winds over land as well over the weekend. There's limited moisture availability with the low arriving from the north and a solid southerly push of drier air and lower precipitable water values on the back side of the low will mainly influence our forecast area over the weekend and early next week. The depth of cold air with the low of course will be passing over increasing sea surface temperatures as it moves south, which may produce showers over the southern forecast area early next week. 500 mb high pressure ridging will then move in from the west with dry weather and an uptrend back to near mid October normal temperatures.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1036 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Strong onshore flow aloft is aiding in the retention of the LIFR- MVFR stratus deck across the region with clearing times generally later than the previous forecast. Still expecting inland terminals to generally clear around 18-20Z while the coastal region remains socked in through the day. Strong onshore winds will develop through the day with gusts up to 20 knots, with some diminishing possible overnight as the lower layers decouple. Some LLWS concerns are present in the interior overnight, particularly at LVK, but they are not strong enough to mention in the TAFs. Opted to keep the generally persistent forecast for stratus formation tonight owing to uncertainty surrounding an approaching cold front, which may allow stratus to dissipate or ceilings to lift. Beyond the 24-hour TAF period, expect stronger winds to develop through Saturday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR at the terminal through the day with a low to moderate confidence for ceilings around 11-15Z Saturday morning, held off on issuing a BKN line. Strong west winds will develop through the afternoon and evening hours, with low to moderate confidence in the wind speeds overnight as the surface winds decouple. Strong southwest winds are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, with the winds continuing to strengthen as they veer to the west-northwest Saturday afternoon. Gusts above 35 kt are not expected today or Saturday, but may need to see how the winds develop today.
SFO Bridge Approach, Stratus remains in the corridor north of SJC and south of the San Mateo Bridge, with moderate confidence of dissipation around 18-19Z. Otherwise similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, IFR stratus is expected to linger through the day at MRY with a brief scattering in the afternoon at best, and may clear out at SNS within the next couple of hours. Stratus is expected to return this evening with LIFR conditions possible overnight. A moderate onshore breeze is expected this afternoon and late Saturday morning, persisting after the end of the TAF period. Any influences from the incoming cold front will come after the TAF period ends.
(today through Wednesday) Issued at 1036 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Strong northerly breezes will continue to spread into the northern waters today with frequent gale force gusts expected by tonight. Widespread hazardous conditions are expected by Saturday morning through at least Sunday morning as strong to near gale northwesterly breezes spread across the waters and build rough to very rough seas. Long period southerly swell arriving today will collide with long period northwesterly swell Sunday, creating a confused sea state. Conditions will improve by Monday night as northerly breezes diminish to become gentle to moderate and seas subside to become moderate.
Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Saturday through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves up to 16 feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!
Sarment
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.
Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
