Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

346 pm PST Mon Jan 26 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 136 PM PST Mon Jan 26 2026 (This evening through Tuesday)

Mostly clear skies across the board today under a building ridge of high pressure. Many locations running about 4-6 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, largely in part to the lack of cloud cover today. Winds remain light and variable with the exception of breezy offshore winds in the vicinity of the Delta. A weakening shortwave trough approaches the West Coast late Tuesday, bringing increased cloudiness ahead of rain chances overnight.

Long Term

..issued at 136 PM PST Mon Jan 26 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Rain chances overnight Tuesday do exist, but very limited on who will actually get measurable precip. With the system weakening and lifting toward the NE, most rain will likely only fall in the North Bay (0.05" to 0.25"), with lighter or even trace amounts across the SF Peninsula and immediate SF Bay region. Interior East Bay, South Bay, and areas south of Watsonville will likely only see drizzle at best. This all comes to an end by the middle of Wednesday morning, then ridging builds back in aloft promoting dry weather and temps near to slightly above average. The next mention of rain looks to be around the Sunday timeframe, but uncertainty is still high at this point.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 337 PM PST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR for most terminals with KLVK being the exception at MVFR to due ongoing haze. VFR conditions again tonight with decreasing offshore flow. Patchy fog will once again impact KSTS, KLVK, and possibly KAPC (20-30%). Toward the end of the TAF period cigs will lower and rain will lurk to the west with a front.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Easterly through tonight then gradually shifting S to SW Tuesday. Tail end of 30 hr TAF lowering cigs and some VCSH.

SFO Bridge Approach, Slantwise haze issues possible this afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR

Marine

(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 337 PM PST Mon Jan 26 2026

Southerly flow will prevail over the coastal waters as a weak cold front approaches from the west tonight through Tuesday. Winds will be moderate to breezy north of Point Reyes with locally hazardous conditions. Winds diminish on Wednesday and switch to northerly that night. Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday. Conditions deteriorate Wednesday as seas build to become rough to very rough. The passing cold front will bring light rain to the coastal waters early Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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