Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1007 pm PDT Thu may 7 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 (This evening through Friday)

Low clouds are retreating to the coast as of early this afternoon with sunny conditions returning to inland areas. Thus, maximum temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low to upper 70s across much of the interior Bay Area, low to upper 80s across the interior Central Coast, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s in the northwest facing coastal locations thanks to the depth of the marine layer.

Stratus will once again return tonight and spread inland into the interior valleys by Friday morning before retreating to the coast by mid-to-late morning and early afternoon. Also, there is the low end potential for coastal drizzle or mist tonight into Friday morning. However, widespread rainfall highly unlikely. Friday, for most locations, will be warmer by a few degrees compared to today. Yet only expecting Minor HeatRisk across much of the interior.

Long Term

..issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

The warming and drying trend will continue into the weekend and peak on Monday of the upcoming workweek as high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds westward. This is when more widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the interior. The relatively cool overnight low temperatures will likely prevent us from reaching higher categories of HeatRisk. However, in the hills and higher elevations across the region, temperatures will remain warm during the overnight period with 60s and a few 70s Monday night into Tuesday morning. The marine layer and associated impacts will begin to compress through the weekend, but not completely go away. With this and onshore flow prevailing, conditions along the northwest facing coastal locations will remain cooler compared to inland locations. On Monday, afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the low to upper 90s across the interior with the greatest potential to reach or exceed 100 degrees F being around Pinnacles National Park (50%-65%) and the southern Salinas Valley (20%-40%).

Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however will still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The cooling trend is currently forecast to continue into the middle of next week as a more zonal flow returns as the ridge becomes centered over the Desert Southwest. However, the Climate Prediction Center maintains likely (roughly 60%) probability for above normal temperatures to persist through days 6-10.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 1007 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026

Another night of MVFR to IFR stratus is expected again tonight, with stratus building along the coast and into the valleys. Stratus will continue to build into the region tonight, with stratus clearing late tomorrow morning. Though there could be lingering stratus into the early afternoon for some sites. VFR conditions should prevail into the afternoon and into the evening. The marine layer tonight and into tomorrow morning is expected to be around 1500-1800ft. It is expected 1200-1000ft by tomorrow evening and into Saturday morning. So stratus arrival might be a little delayed tomorrow evening.

Vicinity of SFO, MVFR to IFR cigs are expected tonight and will clear by late morning. Winds may remain gusty with 18-22kt gusts expected over the next couple of hours, with 10-15kt winds expected overnight. Tomorrow, as cigs clear onshore flow returns. Expect breezy westerly winds around 15kt with gusts up to 25-30kt expected from 21Z to 4Z. There is some uncertainty if stratus will make it to SFO tomorrow night. Some guidance has this occuring around 9z, opted to hint at the possibility instead of locking in on it.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus has returned this evening, which is accompanied with onshore flow. MVFR to IFR cigs are expected through the overnight hours, with cigs lifting late tomorrow morning. Gusty onshore winds return for the afternoon, especially around KSNS where they may get up to 15kt. Stratus should return to the southern half of Monterey Bay.

Marine

(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1007 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026

Fresh to strong northwest breezes will persist through the weekend with steadily building rough seas. The rough seas will begin to ease late Sunday into Monday, which is winds begin to decrease to moderate to fresh northerly breezes.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

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