, Issued at 100 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 (This afternoon through Thursday)
Our well advertised warm up is in full swing today with afternoon temperatures already climbing into the 70s and 90s. With clear skies and a dry airmass interior valley regions will experience mid to upper 90 degree heat this afternoon.
Tonight, more impactful weather is anticipated to take shape as a diffuse trough swings through Big Sky Country into the northern high plains. In the wake of this feature, 3 hour 5-7 mb surface pressure rises across the Great Basin will tighten the low level height/surface pressure gradient between building high pressure and the coastal trough. Subsequently the wind field is anticipated to respond with the latest NWP remaining consistent with a 30-40 knot 925mb jet extending from the northern Sac Valley down into the delta. Lower elevations/valleys will likely see the planetary boundary layer decouple from the free atmosphere and as a result, I'm not anticipating overly gusty winds in the population centers.
For locations at elevation (above 1500 feet), boundary layer decoupling is unlikely and this will be two fold. Firstly, temperatures will remain elevated and overnight humidity recovery will be poor (RH values likely not climbing above 40%). Secondly, the aforementioned momentum at 925mb will be transfered down to the surface (again at elevations at or above 1500 feet). This should translate to frequent gusts above 30 to 35 mph. Cross- sections from the 2km SJSU/PG&E WRF advertise tightly packed isentropes or lines of potential temperature downwind of higher terrain features such as Mt. Saint Helena. This implies a potential for mountain wave type activity as well as a greater threat for wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Fuels intelligence reveals that grasses (more of the 1 and 10 hour or fine fuels) are largely cured and with the combination of the forecast winds and RH, a critical fire weather threat is anticipated to materialize. A Red Flag Warning is in effect to capture the most likely time period for these conditions described above from 11pm tonight into 9am Thursday across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills. Individuals should obey any fire restrictions/burn bans, extinguish any camp fires, secure tow chains trailers/RVs, and NEVER toss cigarette butts out the window. Remember, one less spark, one less wildfire. While winds will abate after sunrise Thursday, RH will remain critically dry, especially interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. While winds remain below threshold, it's important for people to remain vigilant and avoid activities that could spark a wildfire.
The burst of offshore winds will keep the marine layer at bay (no pun intended) and result in a dry airmass. Both will promote a sharp diurnal temperature curve. With sunny skies and virtually non-existent onshore flow (except maybe at the immediate coastline). Thursday high temperatures are anticipated to soar 15 to 25 degrees above normal with widespread mid to upper 90s. Some locations may even exceed the century mark, especially across far interior valleys of the North Bay, East Bay, and South Bay. A handful of our climate sites may also flirt with or exceed daily record highs for June 11th. With the probability of moderate HeatRisk at or above 95% for these locales, a Heat Advisory is in effect for Thursday (and parts of the area on Friday). Heat of this caliber affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some impacts can be expected to health systems and in heat-sensitive industries. Be sure to hydrate with plenty of water and check on those vulnerable groups that are sensitive to heat (elderly and young). Never leave pets or children unattended in vehicles! Do your best to limit strenuous outdoor activity during peak heating. If headed to the coast, be sure to be mindful of the increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents! More details in the beaches section below.
..issued at 100 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Thursday Night - Friday morning lows may cool some, with the exception being across some of the higher terrain where the thermal belt may remain somewhat active. Offshore winds are not expected to be quite as stout, however.
Uncertainty in the MaxT forecast persist on Friday. With the upper trough responsible for driving the offshore winds moving farther east, the low level height/pressure gradient should ease. In fact, a very diffuse front/trough will approach from the north and try to encourage some onshore flow. The diffuse nature of this boundary, however, means that the wind field may not be overly impressive. While some high-resoultion NWP does indicate onshore flow, magnitudes are on the lighter side with speeds of 5 to 10 knots, though terrain enhancements may result in some accelerations across the coastal range. I would anticipate a more structured sea-breeze push on Friday afternoon and areas across the North Bay may experience a very weak frontal passage. Farther east and south, however, very little in the way of onshore flow may transpire. Probability of Moderate HeatRisk remains at or above 80% for interior sections of the East Bay and South Bay and as a result, we've extended the Heat Advisory for an additional day (Friday here). I wouldn't discount the need for at least continued heat messaging into the weekend, however, more diurnal offshore/onshore flow is anticipated which may give more areas relief from the heat. Afternoon conditions will likely remain very pleasant and as noted above, be mindful if headed to the beach as the sneaker wave threat will continue. In addition, higher than normal high tides (1 to 1.5 feet above normal) are advertised through June 15th. As a result, extension of the Coastal Flood Advisory is probable in subsequent shifts.
Morning fog/drizzle may need to be added as we get a little closer to the weekend. Ridging is expected across the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia through next week. There's some degree of broad troughing that is advertised in the ensemble means. Given the orientation of this upper trough (positively titled), we cannot discount a few more burst of offshore winds. Deterministic NBM guidance does appear to support this with a warming trend advertised for next week.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 913 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Widespread VFR lasts into Thursday evening with the exception of HAF which will see reductions in visibilities from haze. Winds are reducing and look to become light across the area overnight. Winds aloft over the North Bay, East Bay, and the SF Bay terminals will remain stronger and northerly, causing concerns for LLWS. Winds aloft look to weaken into the mid morning, reducing wind shear concerns. Expect winds to stay lighter through the rest of the morning, but become moderate to breezy for Thursday afternoon. Wind directions will not be as uniform across the area for Thursday, with much of the wind directions caused by localized effects.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Winds reduce into the night with some LLWS expected in the late night as winds around 2000ft AGL will be northerly and around 35 kts through the mid morning before reducing. Winds will be lighter and variable for the rest of the morning and into the afternoon before more moderate west winds build. These winds will last into the night before becoming light again.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO, but with weaker winds aloft.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR lasts into Thursday evening. Expect winds to become light into the night. In the late night and through the rest of the morning, winds look to be mostly variable. Expect west to northwest winds to build by the late morning and into Thursday afternoon. Winds reduce again Thursday evening as IFR clouds build in the bay and begin to fill over the terminals.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 913 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Gale force gusts linger in the norther outer waters but will weaken into the end of the week. In other portions of the waters, strong to near gale force NW winds will gradually decrease to a moderate NW breeze by Friday morning, and shift to a gentle southerly breeze this weekend. Rough seas will steadily diminish through early next week as the winds ease.
Issued at 100 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Long period swell will continue, likely during the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ006-508.
Heat Advisory from noon to 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ503-504-506- 508.
Red Flag Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ504-515.
Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ505-509- 529.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ506.
Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ510- 513>515.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
