, Issued at 1208 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)
Typical marine stratus is retreating to the coast early this afternoon with mostly sunny conditions across the interior for Independence Day. However, high clouds are streaming in from the southwest as a weak shortwave trough approaches the region. More on this later.
Today's forecast temperatures look to be near or slightly below seasonal averages. Maximum afternoon temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s near the immediate coastline, middle 60s to upper 70s just inland from the coast/bays, and 80s to lower 90s across the inland valleys. Breezy onshore flow is forecast to return this afternoon with wind gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph through the gaps, passes, and Salinas Valley. From the previous forecaster: "People planning to celebrate America's 250th birthday with fireworks or outdoor cookouts should remember their fire safety, obey any local burn bans, and keep a fire extinguisher nearby when playing with fireworks or cooking with open flames."
Stratus is likely to return late this afternoon near the coast, spreading through the Golden Gate into the evening (if they manage to clear out at all this afternoon), and into the inland valleys overnight and into early Sunday morning. Moisture associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to advect across the region overnight and into Sunday morning as the feature moves inland. Thus, there is generally less than a 15% chance of high- based convection across the region with less than 5% probability of thunderstorms from midnight through about 12 p.m. Sunday. However, the missing ingredient appears to be a lifting mechanism as Most Unstable CAPE remains less than 100 J/kg based off of convection- allowing models (CAMs). We will continue to monitor this closely and update the forecast accordingly. Tomorrow will feature cooler temperatures thanks to the high clouds moving across the region and look to be 5-15 degrees (especially across the interior valleys)
..issued at 1208 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 (Monday through next Friday)
The shortwave feature will be exiting the region by Monday with dry conditions and a gradual warming trend to resume throughout midweek. This will be as high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest with temperatures expected to be the warmest Wednesday and Thursday. We are expected afternoon temperature to range from the lower to middle 60s at the immediate coast (thanks to continued marine influences), upper 70s to middle 80s just inland away from the coast/bays, upper 80s to lower 90s in the inland valleys, and up to 105 within the warmest spots of southern Monterey County. Weak troughing returns toward the later half of the week cooling temperatures ever so slightly.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 936 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Stratus is moving back in this evening and has already made it to some of the terminals. It is expected to continue to expand overnight bringing mainly IFR conditions with some local areas of LIFR. Generally CIGS are expected to be similar in height to early Saturday morning. Sunday the clearing is expected to be similar as well with most sites clearing by mid to late morning. The immediate coast will likely remain MVFR with only a few short breaks expected in the afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, SCT-BKN high clouds continue through tonight and likely into Sunday. Stratus is expected to return around 08Z tonight, although the high clouds are making it difficult to monitor. Clearing may be slightly later than on Saturday, but still expect VFR conditions by 17 or 18Z. Breezy onshore winds are expected once again in the afternoon near 20 kts at times. Sunday night the MVFR CIGS (locally IFR) are expected to return from around 07-18z once again with moderate confidence in cig timing.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, SCT-BKN high clouds through the period. IFR (locally LIFR) cigs return near or after 02z Sun, clearing is expected again Sunday mid to late in the morning with moderate confidence in timing. Breezy onshore winds are expected again Sunday afternoon near 15 kts at times. Sunday evening a quick return of stratus is expected like we have been seeing.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 224 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026
Northerly flow will remain over the coastal waters over the weekend. Locally hazardous conditions will persist over the outer waters north of Point Reyes through early Sunday due to fresh to strong breezes. Calmer winds are expected later on Sunday and into Monday. A better chance for small craft winds will occur for many areas by Monday night into much of next week with building seas.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
