Issued at 855 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
KMUX radar is showing some showery echoes, mainly off the coast, but also within the Santa Cruz Mountains and along the Big Sur Coast. A couple of weather stations within terrain-favored locations have shown some measurable rain, with the Oak Ridge RAWS in the Sonoma County coastal ranges reporting 0.05" of rain in the last couple of hours. Shower activity continues through the night before the main rain band comes through in the morning hours.
DialH
, Issued at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026 (This afternoon through Friday)
The Bay Area and north Central Coast remains placed between high pressure extending into the Northern Rockies and a through about 450 miles to the west-northwest. Meanwhile, a cut-off low pressure is forecast to develop in the next 12 hours and head towards southern California and Baja California; moving inland by Friday morning/afternoon. That said, high clouds from the approaching weather system will be positioned over the region by this afternoon. This, along with cooling temperatures aloft, will result in a slight cool down compared to previous days.
Tonight and into early Friday morning, expect light to moderate rain in the coastal ranges and favored upslope regions along the coast ahead of the frontal boundary. Southerly winds are forecast to increase ahead of the cold front overnight with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity between 8 AM - 1 PM Friday across the North Bay, between 10 AM - 3 PM across the Bay Area and South Bay, and 12 PM - 5 PM across the north Central Coast. With the cold air mass advecting in from the north, surface CAPE/most unstable CAPE values of up to 100-300 J/kg will result in around a 15% potential for thunderstorms. Any heavier rain shower and/or thunderstorm will be capable of producing brief heavy downpours, strong and erratic winds, and lightning. Wind gusts have the potential to reach or exceed 45 mph just ahead of the cold frontal passage, but are forecast to be short lived as winds becoming westerly and/or northwesterly in wake of the frontal passage while also easing. These stronger winds can cause trees or branches to fall and may result in isolated power outages.
Rain totals from this system (Friday through Saturday afternoon) are expected to be around 0.5-1.25" for the North Bay (greatest in the coastal ranges), 0.3-0.8" for the San Francisco Bay Area and Monterey Bay region, up to 0.75-1.25" for the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range, and 0.1-0.5" for the inland portions of Monterey and San Benito Counties. Post frontal rain showers are forecast to persist into Friday evening and early Saturday morning.
Please check the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory.
..issued at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)
The storm door remains open through the 7 day forecast period! We are expecting another system to move through the region Sunday into Monday and a third system to arrive in the middle of the upcoming week. These systems are not forecast to stall over any one given area, thus reducing the potential for widespread flooding concerns. It is a bit to far out in time to talk about thunderstorm potential and rainfall amounts, yet current forecast do not seem much greater than the Friday system (1st system to impact the region). Be sure to stay informed on the latest forecast information as we the storm door remains open.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
MVFR conditions are expected as the cold frontal passage moves in to our forecast area. Moderate to high confidence of ceilings lowering to MVFR just prior to or shortly after midnight. Strong southerly winds are expected to persist into mid-day Friday, with gusts in excess of 35kts possible. Rain is expected to move in to our forecast area after midnight, most likely in the early morning hours, expected to slow down as we head into the afternoon. After frontal passage, rain will become more showery in nature and winds will start to decrease.
Vicinity of SFO, There is moderate confidence of VFR conditions shifting to MVFR as we move into the overnight hours and the front approaches. Southerly winds are expected to continue to increase overnight, with gusts up to 35kts as we head into Friday morning. Rain chances are expected to increase to 50% after 15Z, but confidence on the exact start time continues to remain low. Late afternoon rain chances will diminish, and winds will start to decrease into the overnight hours.
SFO Bridge Approach, Winds will be gusty, in excess of 34 knots, across the SF Bay Friday morning with a Gale Warning in effect from 9AM to 3PM Friday. Otherwise, similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with conditions to deteriorate overnight as a moderate band of showers approaches the region. Scattered showers ahead of the main front will reach MRY and SNS closer to 15Z with the main band arriving between 18-20Z. It is possible the band could slow down which would likely delay arrival by another 1-2 hours. MVFR ceilings, strong southerly winds gusting to around 30 knots, and light to moderate rain are all expected as the band arrives. Reduced visibilities, particularly during heavier showers, are expected during the main frontal passage. Conditions improve after frontal passage occurs with winds shifting more west to northwest and decreasing. Scattered showers remain through the end of the forecast period.
(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 955 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
Strong to near gale force gusts will continue to strengthen tonight into Friday morning with gale force gusts becoming more widespread by mid to late morning as a cold front pushes through our coastal waters. Localized, occasional storm force gusts are possible within portions of the Monterey Bay Friday morning into the afternoon. After frontal passage, winds will shift westerly and decrease to a moderate breeze by Friday evening. Significant wave heights will gradually build to up to 30 feet by Saturday with high seas to continue through much of the weekend due to a distant hurricane force low. Wave heights decrease slightly Sunday before increasing again Monday. Small crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these extreme sea states.
Issued at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker waves through Friday, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 35 feet. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft are likely at favored breakpoints. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Thursday through Friday):
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):
The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly during high tide.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
