Issued at 902 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 10 AM for the North Bay Interior Valleys, San Francisco, and the San Francisco Bay Shoreline as we continue to see visibilities of less than 1/4 mile. While conditions have improved over Napa County, we continue to see dense fog in places such as Petaluma, KSFO, KOAK, KSQL, and KNUQ. The fog is forecast to mix out as surface temperatures warm into the 70s to lower 80s (especially across the interior Central Coast) this afternoon.
RGass
, Issued at 1147 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026 (Tonight through Thursday)
Areas of low clouds and fog redevelop tonight then it'll turn mainly sunny Wednesday. Clouds will then increase over our forecast area Wednesday night and continue mainly cloudy Thursday. It'll be dry Thursday except model forecasts do show a little light measurable drizzle or light rain developing closest to the coastline by later Thursday, with better chances for wet weather Thursday night.
Before discussing the long term weather, there is a trough of low pressure from the Pacific Northwest to our west that'll split and have little impact on our weather. The southern split energy will merge with the subtropical jet stream and remain well to our south. It's important to mention the passage of this low since it will free the mid-latitude westerlies and polar jet stream to send a series of well structured cold fronts (2 to 3) to move our way late in the week and through early next week.
..issued at 1147 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Farther upstream there is good agreement in the global models that strong polar jet stream winds and a low center will undergo rapid, deep cyclogenesis south of the Aleutian Islands tonight through Wednesday. During this time the surface cold front is forecast to move upwards to 50 mph to 70 mph, very fast for a cold front. Dangerously high swell will develop with this low and become a factor here with dangerous and potentially damaging high surf in our forecast area by late Friday and Saturday. Beach Hazards will precede the arrival of the high surf.
On the heels of this low pressure system, another low is forecast to undergo rapid, deep development Thursday into Friday. Both of these system's cold fronts will approach and move across our forecast area (though less quickly vs initial rapid development). The first cold front reaches our area with rain and wind Friday, the next cold front arrives with rain and wind Sunday into Monday. The first specific low center will reach the Pacific Northwest, the second low will reach the Gulf of Alaska and British Columbia late in the week and weekend respectively. Given how much strength is showing up in the upstream pattern, it is good that the low centers are forecast to pass by far to our north vs much closer to the Bay Area and north Central Coast. Bottom line, a very busy week is ahead with a quickly moving pattern and beneficial rain. Expect the rain and wind to affect Friday's commute. Since the upstream pattern is evolving very quickly, something to keep in mind is e.g. the first cold front may arrive sooner than the models calculate. Will soon be looking into and messaging about winds as well as high, damaging surf ahead for late week and weekend. Please stay tuned to the latest updates.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1003 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
VFR conditions and diurnal winds should prevail today. Moderate confidence IFR (potentially becoming LIFR) conditions return to Half Moon Bay, Santa Rosa, and Oakland. Low to Moderate confidence of MVFR returning across the bay area, with low confidence (under 30%) in IFR or worse. Cloud cover is likely to increase after 09-12Z with the potential for reductions in visibility if fog is able to develop. Fog chances are highest across the North Bay Valleys but may impact airports along the SF Bay shoreline. Conditions are expected to worsen through Thursday ahead of a low pressure system arriving on Friday.
Vicinity of SFO, Fog persists along the west San Francisco Bay shoreline, but should clear from radiation before 20z. VFR and diurnal winds to prevail afterward. MVFR conditions come in tonight; IFR is possible tonight, but light offshore flow may be enough to keep it away.
SFO Bridge Approach, Some fog/low lying clouds are hanging on between San Jose and SFO. These should clear out from radiation before 20z. Afterwards, VFR and diurnal winds for the rest of the day with the potential for MVFR conditions overnight.
Monterey Bay Terminals, IFR-LIFR conditions return overnight as low cloud cover returns ahead of an incoming low pressure system. Current thinking is that CIGs will be on the IFR-LIFR border for MRY/SNS with clearing to occur late tomorrow morning. Otherwise, winds remain light and onshore during the day before becoming light, offshore overnight. Drainage winds are likely to develop at SNS again tomorrow morning with SE winds peaking around 15 knots.
(today through Monday) Issued at 902 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
Conditions will steadily deteriorate Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches the coast bringing strong SW winds and moderate rain. Gale force winds are likely during the day on Friday with a low potential for short lived storm force gusts as the front moves through. By Saturday, high seas will move in from a hurricane force low moving through the NE Pacific. Significant wave heights will reach between 25 to 30 feet on Saturday. Small crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these conditions.
Issued at 332 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 9 PM Wednesday through 6 PM Friday, at which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker waves Thursday and Friday, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15-20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 30 feet. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In roughly 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.
Beach Hazards Statement from 9 PM PST this evening through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
