Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

213 pm PST Sun Jan 11 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 (This evening through Monday)

Another night of chilly weather is in the forecast as persistent ridging keeps the weather quiet for us. The deterministic NBM is improving in terms of the forecasted low temperatures in comparison to the previous few days. Temperatures this morning trended a few degrees cooler than even the adjusted forecast had. Given this, decided to blend in this morning's observed temperatures with the deterministic NBM to pull tomorrow morning's temperatures down slightly. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the North Bay Valleys, East Bay Interior Valleys, the southern Salinas Valley, and interior San Benito County from 1AM-9AM PST Monday morning. Not a fan of chilly mornings? Temperatures warm into the low 60s across the Bay Area, 60s across the Central Coast, and even some mid to upper 60s in the Salinas Valley. Winds remain light and offshore with locally gusty conditions along the coastline.

A Beach Hazards Statement goes into effect at 5PM this evening and will remain in effect through Monday evening. If you are going to the beach, use caution and never turn your back on the ocean! There is an elevated risk of sneaker waves, rip currents, and larger shore break.

Long Term

..issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

Colder mornings continue through at least Tuesday. We'll have to see how the current blend does for low temperatures on Monday but a similar blend may be needed for Tuesday morning. This would most likely necessitate a few Cold Weather Advisories for the coldest portions of the interior but they would not be widespread by any means. Daytime temperatures warm throughout the week and will be in the mid to upper 60s by mid to late week. The Salinas Valley looks to be one of the warmer locations with highs reaching the low to mid 70s this week. Morning temperatures warm as well with a return of more seasonal low temperatures in the 40s expected. Winds remain light and offshore through the week as upper level ridging continues. Wondering when our next chance for rain will be? Models are hinting some rain may be possible towards the end of the month starting the 21st/22nd but models are not in agreement as to the placement of ridging vs troughing over the West Coast. Just know that rain is currently unlikely to return through at least mid-month with long range guidance indicating some increasing potential by late month.

While the Beach Hazards Statement is set to expire Monday evening, hazardous beach conditions are likely to return mid to late week. Another round of long period swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents Wednesday into the end of the week. If you're heading to the beach keep this in mind and make sure you never turn your back on the ocean.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 934 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR. Broad ridge of high pressure resulting in clear conditions across the board through this TAF period. The exception being isolated dense FG invof KSTS overnight through sunrise Monday. Winds generally light and variable.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Clear conditions anticipated through the TAF period. NE wind component through the morning hours, but very likely to stay under 7-8 kts.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Clear skies with light and variable winds. SE drainage flow out of the Salinas Valley during the mornings.

Marine

(today through Friday) Issued at 934 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026

Expect mostly light winds and swell today. A longer period and larger northwesterly builds this afternoon producing a rough sea state through early Tuesday. Seas rebuild in the late work week. Winds stay mostly light to moderate through the week.

Beaches

Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026

A Beach Hazard Statement will go into effect at 4PM PST this evening and continue through 6PM PST Monday for all Pacific Coast beaches. A longer period moderate swell will bring hazardous beach conditions with increased risk for rip currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore break. This will result in dangerous conditions along the shoreline. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue through Thursday with the issuance of additional Beach Hazard Statements likely.

Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Monday for CAZ506- 510-516-518.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Visit this site often? Consider supporting us with a $10 contribution.
Learn more