Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

325 am PST Wed Nov 26 2025

Short Term

, Issued at 319 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2025 (Today and tonight)

A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 11AM this morning for the North Bay and Easy Bay Interior Valleys. An upper level ridge axis will pivot W to E across the West Coast today. Locations with fog this morning will eventually join the remainder of our service area with mostly sunny skies, light winds and above normal temperatures (5-10 degrees for the interior). A meandering surface high over our coastal waters continues to pull weak flow offshore from the Bay Area south into the Central Coast, seen well in low level boundary layer wind fields. Fog is expected to develop once again later tonight, mainly across the North Bay and portions of the East Bay, however coverage should be less than what we've seen the past couple of nights.

Long Term

..issued at 319 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2025 (Thursday through Tuesday)

Thursday will bring slightly warmer temperatures than today, and will make for a banner Thanksgiving Day under sunny skies with light winds and pleasantly mild temperatures. A progressive, upper level disturbance well to our north takes aim at the Pacific Northwest Thursday night into Friday. The progressive shortwave trough will bring some precip to the Intermountain West, with its biggest influence on our area, a relatively weak and dry cold front that will bring noticeably cooler temps for Friday and the weekend. There's better consensus in deterministic guidance to help compliment the ensemble guidance, suggesting cooler temperatures for the 'inside slider' type pattern we may see Sunday into the beginning of next week. The most potent portion of the trough attm looks to be too far east to bring the elevated winds winds and other impacts we typically see in that type of pattern.

Aviation

(12z TAFS) Issued at 319 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2025

LIFR-VLIFR conditions have developed across the North and East Bay valleys, although high cloud cover has made it difficult to determine the spatial extent of the stratus layer. Gusty offshore winds have mixed out the stratus layer at APC, and have returned to terminal to a VFR forecast as a result with a TEMPO for fog should the winds diminish. For the rest of the region, there is low to moderate confidence of stratus development for the rest of the morning with the highest potential at OAK, SJC, and SNS. Light offshore winds will prevail tonight, with the speeds picking up and the winds getting a more northerly component in the afternoon, before turning light again with chances for fog in the North and East Bay valleys tonight.

Vicinity of SFO, IFR-LIFR ceilings continue through the morning hours, dissipating in the late morning around 17-18Z. Light easterly winds turn to a moderate northerly flow in the afternoon and evening, before winds turn light again overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Moderate to high confidence for VFR through the TAF period. Monitoring developing stratus at the very southern tip of the Salinas Valley for potential impacts to SNS down the line, but not expecting anything imminent and the impact time has been pushed back from the previous forecast. Light to gentle drainage winds will turn moderately onshore in the afternoon and evening before resuming tonight.

Marine

(today through Monday) Issued at 319 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2025

Dense fog has developed in the West Delta into the San Pablo Bay, and is expected to continue making hazardous conditions for mariners through the late morning hours. High pressure off the California Coast will maintain gentle to moderate northerly conditions through mid week. Patchy dense fog will be possible again tonight, especially in the bays. Seas will continue to subside through Wednesday. Winds will begin to increase again late week, building moderate to rough seas.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ502- 504>506-510.

PZ, Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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