Issued at 852 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025
No update to the forecast, with light rain over the North Bay expected to taper off after midnight. We're going to start to dry out tomorrow with warmer temperatures through the remainder of the week. As far as rainfall over the past twenty-four hours, interior locations across the Central Coast, at higher elevations generally saw between 0.75" to 1" with two sites near Pinnacles National Park getting just over an inch. We also received reports of two funnel clouds, one near Salinas around 130pm and another near Hollister shortly after.
, Issued at 1228 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025 (This evening through Wednesday)
The 12Z sounding found very cold air aloft. The 850 temp was 2.35C and 500 temp -25.35C. Both near the minimum daily values. Most notable was the 500 mb height of 5460m. That shattered the daily record. For context the average for this date is 5787, 10th percentile: 5667, old record: 5572. In fact, 5460 is tied for the second lowest 500 mb height ever measured in the month of October, beaten only by 5457m measured on 10/28/56. While this cold air is keeping lapse rates steep, the moisture has plummeted and the surface front has passed into southern California keeping the impacts much lower today. That being said, there are still scattered showers expected through the evening. Some of these could be strong with possible lightning, hail and brief downpours. By Wednesday the atmosphere will restabilize and the chance for rain will drop to near zero. The wet soil, combined with clearing skies tonight and cool temperatures will bring a chance for fog Wednesday morning if a shallow inversion forms.
..issued at 1228 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025 (Wednesday night through next Monday)
Over the next several days the bowling ball mid level low will fill and move NE, returning back to the jet stream over the central US. While this happens, ridging from the subtropical high will nudge in over California. This will kick off a warming trend starting Wednesday, with temperatures returning to comfortable seasonal average by Friday. Saturday will be a few degrees warmer than normal before the pattern breaks down. A new, more typical trough is set to approach the coast by Sunday, bringing a slight cool down into early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis suggest there is a good amount of uncertainty regarding how deep this trough gets, complicated in part by a left-over cutoff low off the coast of Mexico. If these 2 features combine there is a chance for rain, otherwise the trough likely won't be deep enough to bring more than clouds and cooler weather.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 945 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR-MVFR with widely scattered showers and patchy fog and low clouds /LIFR-IFR/ tonight and Wednesday morning. Dry weather and VFR Wednesday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR-MVFR. Vicinity showers tonight otherwise drier conditions Wednesday. West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable tonight and Wednesday morning. West to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots late Wednesday afternoon and evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR-MVFR. Mainly onshore winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight and Wednesday morning. Onshore winds near 10 knots redeveloping Wednesday afternoon.
(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 852 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Low pressure and cold air aloft will result in a few additional showers across the waters through sunset. Otherwise dry northerly winds will return to the waters tonight through the weekend.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
