, Issued at 134 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 (Today and tonight)
Widespread light, stratiform rain continues across the southern Bay Area and Central Coast with around 0.5-1.0" having fallen with this system so far. Moderate rain will gradually become more scattered and lighten by mid to late morning as the cut-off low progress eastward. Showers will become more scattered by the afternoon as weak, shortwave ridging moves through but this is short lived as another, deeper, upper level trough moves in the Bay Area. This system is associated with a strong surface cold front which will bring moderate to heavy rain, potential for thunderstorms, and gusty winds ahead of it.
Compared to Saturday, we can expected a more typical north to south progression of the rain band ahead of this cold front. Moderate to heavy rain will reach the North Bay Sunday evening before spreading into the Bay Area and Central Coast Sunday night into early Monday morning. The North Bay Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains look to receive an additional 1-2" of rain Sunday night into Monday while the Santa Lucia Range receives an additional 2-3". For the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast, totals will generally range from 0.5- 1.25" Sunday night into Monday. High resolution guidance is relatively consistent that a period of moderate to heavy rain will develop ahead of the cold front as it passes through the Bay Area/Central Coast. Nuisance flooding and rises in small creeks/streams are likely as this band passes through. Given the amount of rain the Bay Area and Central Coast has had over the last week, soils are either saturated or close to saturation which increases surface runoff and, consequentially, the risk of nuisance flooding. If you encounter flooding while driving or encounter a road closure due to flooding, do not attempt to drive through it instead find a different route.
The other two impacts to consider this evening will be winds and thunderstorm potential. Winds will strengthen this evening and remain gusty overnight. Wind gusts will generally peak between 30 to 35 mph with locally stronger gusts across the higher terrain and mountain gaps/passes (Altamont Pass region). As the main rain band and cold front pass through, it is possible that temporarily stronger gusts will develop. Winds will gradually diminish throughout the day on Monday after peaking overnight Sunday into Monday. Now for thunderstorm potential, thunderstorm potential increases late Sunday afternoon into the evening across the marine environment. The NBM is highlighting a 30-35% chance of thunderstorms across the northern waters Sunday evening/night with a 20-25% chance of thunderstorms throughout the Bay Area/Central Coast Sunday night into Monday. The NAM shows a relatively unstable environment with 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 700-500mb lapse rates between 7-8C/km. Thunderstorm potential peaks ahead of of cold frontal passage with chances diminishing to 10-15% by Monday morning. This is not to knock the chances of thunderstorms in the post-frontal environment but know chances are highest ahead of/with cold frontal passage.
..issued at 134 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 (Monday through Saturday)
Periods of moderate rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms continue through Monday morning as a deep upper level trough pushes through the West Coast. Rain and thunderstorm chances generally diminish Monday afternoon into the evening with rain to fully exit the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Shortwave ridging will build in Tuesday to Wednesday which will allow us to dry out across the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will be short lived before another trough pushes into the West Coast late Wednesday and brings light rain Thursday and Friday. Precipitation totals for this event have trended downwards over the last few days with the center of the upper level trough now positioned further east/inland. This system is still several days out so continued fluctuations in precipitation are likely but, for now, this storm looks to produce light, largely beneficial rain fall across the region. Drier conditions return by mid to late Friday and continue into the weekend.
In the wake of Sunday-Monday's system a much cooler airmass will move into the region. This will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s and overnight lows in the low 40s. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the coldest morning's with lows in the 30s across the interior Central Coast. Pockets of near freezing temperatures are small so no frost/freeze products are likely next week at this time. The combination of cooler temperatures and lingering moisture in the Central Coast may result in some snow flakes across the Santa Lucia
(12z TAFS) Issued at 340 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
Ongoing light rain across the South Bay and Central Coast will gradually taper off over the next few hours. There will be a brief reprieve in rain today before a stronger cold front brings another round this evening. Winds will increase to a strong southerly breeze ahead of the front before shifting to westerly towards the end of the TAF period as the front moves through. High resolution guidance is indicating a narrow band of heavy rain showers with possible thunderstorms will push though around 06-09Z.
Vicinity of SFO, The light rain has pushed south with only a small chance for an isolated shower in the short term. Ceilings will remain high MVFR or low VFR through the day. The approaching cold front will start to be felt around 00Z as southerly winds start to increase. The rain should arrive by 03Z and will come in showers. The heaviest band looks to be around 08Z with periods of IFR visibility, strong gusts, and thunderstorms possible. After the front passes, winds will quickly shift back to the more standard WNW direction, but remain elevated through the night.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Still dealing with light rain for the next few hours. Most of the daylight hours will be dry with MVFR ceilings and increasing southerly winds. The showers are scheduled to arrive around 03Z and last through the end of the TAF period. The cold front should move through around 10Z, bringing a stronger band of showers and shifting winds back to westerly.
(today through Friday) Issued at 340 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
Moderate southerly winds will gradually increase in strength through the day before a cold front will bring widespread hazardous marine conditions this evening. Winds will shift to a strong NW breeze with occasional gale force gusts, very rough seas, and poor visibility in heavy rain. There is also a good chance for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Conditions will improve Wednesday before very high WNW swell rolls in Thursday night through Friday.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST Monday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
