, Issued at 342 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 (Today and tonight)
A long wave trough remains located over the west coast (north hemispheric pattern remains in winter mode, active with ~ 7 long wave troughs). Within the west coast long wave trough there is a weakening, vertically stacked surface to 500 mb low pressure center (occluded low pressure) offshore ~ 350 miles west of Santa Cruz. However, there is a secondary low pressure center continuing to develop this morning, it's currently 250 miles south of Santa Cruz and moving mainly northward. The second low will continue to bring rain and wind to our area today. A strengthening convergence of differing air masses will cause a strengthening of the front (frontogenesis) at 850 mb and 700 mb today, strengthening surface low pressure included in this process all will steepen the pressure gradients and winds. 200 mb jet stream winds are already at the base and forward of the larger scale trough, thus the development window of the second low will be short i.e. through late morning to early afternoon and mainly focused over the Central Coast before the low takes a more eastward motion. Precipitable water with the low peaks today between 0.75" and 0.80" which is near the 90th percentile for the time of year. Ouput from numerical weather prediction has varied as to how strong winds may get within this narrow window of time today; it's a good idea to be on the lookout for suddenly gusty winds today, including a wind shift to westerly and gusty later on today. A wind advisory remains in effect over the north Central Coast from 8 am to 8 pm today.
Moderate to heavy rain has prompted the issuance of a few flood advisories so far. With ongoing downpours, remember to turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. There is also a slight chance of convection today. We'll continue to monitor KMUX radar through today. Showers continue tonight (and Tuesday) with cold air advection moving in on northwest winds.
..issued at 342 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)
Deep long wave troughing means additional wet weather including lowering snow levels, maybe temporary breaks but otherwise we're catching up on recently dry weather. The over water trajectory of cold air this week will modify 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures along the way, but per recent NAM output for example we may still get 850 mb temperature lowering near -4 Celsius, near the minimum moving average for the time of year. Plenty of mixing, upward transport of sea surface heat and water vapor, instability, low pressure development will otherwise cause wet weather to continue, along with lots of snow in the high country.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 442 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026
The challenge for today will be ceiling and visibility reduction associated with the rain, in addition to the gustier winds as an area of low pressure moves over the region. Opted to go a bit more optimistic for the baseline for most TAF sites based on what we saw overnight. This means we should should generally vary from VFR to MVFR, though IFR conditions will be possible with stronger pockets of rain today. Winds should start to pick up later this morning and into the afternoon as main feature move onshore. Southerly flow should become onshore after this, which will lead to a renewed push for gustier winds and perhaps a pause or a reduction in precipitation. Moderate confidence in the forecast.
Vicinity of SFO, Mainly VFR conditions should prevail today, unless stronger pockets of rain move over the terminal. Then we could see ceilings or visibility drop to MVFR or perhaps IFR conditions. Winds will generally be from the east or south this morning before shifting onshore after the low moves over head. This will bring increasing onshore flow, with gusts up to 25 kt expected after 0Z. Tomorrow morning, rain showers should return. Moderate confidence in the forecast.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Rain will continue across the region, with conditions generally bouncing between VFR to MVFR conditions. Overnight and early this morning, heavier pockets of rain dropped visibility into IFR territory. The threat for reduced vis due to rain will continue until rain chances ease later today. Winds will gradually increase this morning from the south, before shifting onshore and remaining breezy.
(today through early Saturday) Issued at 255 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026
Scattered to widespread rain will continue across the waters today before becoming isolated to scattered late in the day. Strong southerly winds continue along the inner coastal waters south of Monterey Bay, while winds elsewhere increase throughout the day. Strong to near gale force winds are expected through midweek, with gale force gusts expected at times. Rough to very rough seas will prevail through the week. Thunderstorm chances increase behind the initial front and linger through Tuesday.
Issued at 556 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026
The combination of spring tides and storm surge will bring minor high tide flooding to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay through Tuesday. Up to 1.0 ft of inundation is expected in the San Francisco Bay, with up to 1.5 ft in the Monterey Bay. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to at 9:34 AM Sunday, 10:16 AM Monday, and 10:58 AM Tuesday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and throughout the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM PST this evening for CAZ516>518-528-530.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ517-518.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
