, Issued at 122 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025 (This evening through Tuesday)
Rain showers have returned to the North Bay and are moving inland across the San Francisco Bay Area. Rain showers will spread southward across the Central Coast with increasing chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Overall, thunderstorm chances remain about 25% across much of the region as the atmosphere becomes more unstable in wake of the frontal passage. CAPE values look to range between 250-500 J/kg and lapse rates around 7 C/km this afternoon and evening before lowering to below 250 J/kg. Ahead of the cold front, strong and gusty winds are expected from the southwest with gusts up to 35-45 mph in the higher terrain, gaps and passes around the Bay Area and 40-50 mph in the higher terrain of the Central Coast.
Post-frontal rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the night, but the thunderstorm threat drops to around 10% or less. However, a much colder air mass will filter into the region as the cold core mid/upper low moves inland over the Central Coast and/or Bay Area. However, the lack of complete clearing of clouds may limit low temperatures Tuesday morning. Generally expecting mid to upper 40's inland away from the coast to lower 50's around the San Francisco Bayshore and along the coast. Upper 30's will be possible in the highest peaks across the region, especially the Central Coast.
Rain showers may linger into Tuesday morning before tapering off by the afternoon and especially so by the evening. Given the cold air mass in place, afternoon temperatures will struggle to warm into the mid 60's. Generally speaking, temperatures look to peak in the upper 50's to lower 60's tomorrow afternoon.
..issued at 122 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)
The mid/upper level low will shift east by a building shortwave ridge nosing in from the eastern Pacific. This will result in a gradual warming and drying trend from Wednesday through Saturday. There has been a slight delay in the expected return of unsettled conditions to next Monday, however cooling is still anticipated on Sunday as a potential frontal boundary approaches. The 6-10 Day Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has temperatures leaning below normal and precipitation leaning above normal.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 444 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A strong band of showers is pushing through the Bay area, bringing heavy rain and erratic, gusty winds. After this line moves through conditions will quickly improve with only scattered showers expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, A very organized line of showers just moved through with steady rain expected for the next couple hours. The threat of thunderstorms has likely ended, however the showers are still bringing erratic wind and quickly changing flight conditions.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, The Monterey Bay terminals still have several hours of impacts as a second band of organized showers and thunderstorms is forming over the coastal waters. Conditions should improve by 0400Z with scattered showers through the rest of the TAF period.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 444 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A deepening low pressure system with a surface cold front will move southward across the coastal waters producing strengthening winds as high as gales around frontal passage through this evening. There is also the potential for thunderstorms which would bring localized gales, steep wind waves, reduced visibility and a slight chance for waterspouts associated with the strongest cells. Showers will persist through Tuesday morning, but will become more isolated while the winds decrease overall. Rough seas to 10 feet will persist into Wednesday.
Ca, None. PZ, Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
