, Issued at 131 PM PST Thu Nov 13 2025 (This evening through Friday Night)
Widespread rain showers continue to stream in ahead of a potent upper low this afternoon. As far as wind headlines, we'll maintain a Wind Advisory for gusts near/above 45 mph across the Central Coast. The Point Sur VWP continues to sample 0-1 km flow of at or above 50 knots and this is generally in line with short-term model guidance that advertises around 45-50 knots around 925mb. Surface observations across this region also still indicate gusts of 45 mph across interior San Benito, with gusts near or just under 60 mph in a few spots along the Big Sur Coastline.
We'll continue to see our band of showers persist through the afternoon and into the early evening hours as forcing for ascent continues across our area. Taking a look at some of the SPC MesoA products, there still remains a small sliver of instability across the extreme eastern portions of the Santa Clara Hills and San Benito County, as well as far southern portions of Monterey County. The overall trend, however, is diminishing, likely due to the widespread rainfall that is flattening out mid/upper level lapse rates. With 40 to 50 meter height falls and mid-level CAA, there still seems to be a reasonable chance for thunder, at least across the aforementioned geographic regions, but even this potential is dwindling. Deep layer shear does remain plentiful, but with the instability waning, the likelihood of organized convective modes is on the decline. Still, we'll monitor for any transient low-topped organized convective modes.
For the rest of this afternoon and into the evening, our best rain chances (and thus flood risk) will shift southward. The time- lagged HRRR ensemble seems to align well with radar/satellite presentations and in fact some of the precip-object tracking items indicate that over the next 2-4 hours, the corridor of heaviest rainfall will shift to the southern Big Sur Coastline. This aligns well with short term NWP as the nose of the strongest flow at 925mb will be focused here.
Upper troughing remains in place through the day on Friday. With no real moisture being scoured out, we'll maintain opportunities for rainshowers. Not too atypical of these broadly forced scenarios, there are a variety of solutions, all which have reasonable outcomes (boom or bust). This results in a lower-confidence PoP forecast. What I can say with confidence is that many if not most areas will continue to have at least a 50 to 60 percent chance for measurable rainfall given that we'll still have broad ascent with a moist regime (though PWATs will decrease). While it won't necessarily rain continuously through the day at all locales, intermittent isolated to scattered precipitation will continue and this is supported by hi-resolution model guidance.
Rain amounts this afternoon and into Friday night are anticipated to average around 0.20-0.75" across the Bay Area to around 1" across the Central Coast. Higher terrain such as the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Diablo, Santa Lucia, and Gabilan Ranges could average between 1-2" with isolated +3.5" (Santa Lucia) amounts. This may support largely nuisance flooding across these areas.
..issued at 131 PM PST Thu Nov 13 2025 (Saturday through next Wednesday)
Confidence in a quasi-active weather pattern remains low to moderate as the current upper trough is expected to detach from the main flow and become a meandering upper low across the region. As the parent low jogs eastward through the Central Valley, low level 850-925mb theta-e advection will support ascent atop a cool/moist airmass. Blended guidance seems very reasonable a PoP gradient from near 10% or less across the North Bay to near 80% across far southern Monterey and San Benito County.
By the end of the weekend into early next week, a broad upper trough should kick our current low to the east. This next trough is highly amplified and with the mid/upper level speed maxima upstream of the main trough axis, there's a chance that timing could change. Cluster analysis indicates a wide array of solutions with some scenarios advertising a swifter movement of this feature to the east, while others delay the movement of the trough. At any rate, large scale ascent support PoPs through just about the entire outlook period. At this time rainfall amounts Sunday afternoon and into Tuesday appear to be largely under 1.5", however, we'll fine-tune this forecast as we venture through the weekend.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 331 PM PST Thu Nov 13 2025
The main frontal rain band is moving to the south and east of the main terminals, with MVFR-IFR conditions expected for those traversing the band through the rest of the day. Behind the band, scattered showers persist, diminishing in intensity and coverage farther away from the band, and generally VFR with mid-level cloud cover and MVFR conditions prevail. High-resolution models are not picking up on the stratus potential overnight, but given the recent rainfall and potential radiational cooling where breaks in mid- to high-level clouds set up, have elected to keep the previous forecast of MVFR-IFR stratus development overnight. Going for a more pessimistic 20-21Z clearing time for most terminals on Friday, although this is a lower confidence forecast.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with mid-level clouds to high-end MVFR and isolated showers persist through the evening. Light to gentle south breezes prevail through the TAF period. Low to moderate confidence of stratus development overnight, a slightly higher confidence at OAK. If stratus does form overnight, expect MVFR conditions and a late clearing time on Friday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR conditions with mid-level clouds mixed with MVFR conditions continue into the evening hours, with MVFR stratus developing overnight. A gentle southeast to south breeze will continue through the overnight hours, with light drainage flow overnight before onshore winds resume Friday afternoon.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM PST Thu Nov 13 2025
Hazardous marine conditions are gradually diminishing from north to south through the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will continue to steadily decrease through the evening and overnight hours, but remain hazardous for small craft into Friday morning. Rough seas for the inner waters and very rough seas for the outer waters continue through Friday. Seas abate to become moderate by Saturday through the weekend.
Issued at 124 AM PST Thu Nov 13 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from this afternoon through Friday evening. Long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet with the highest waves up to 23 feet in favored locations are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ516>518-528- 530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
