Issued at 841 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2026
Satellite imagery shows mid- to high level cloud cover moving through the region, and starting to exit parts of the North Bay. The short-term forecast remains generally on track, with some of the higher resolution models noting a slight chance for showers across the coastal waters beginning in the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning. Most of the high resolution models are not going far enough in time to capture the rain event later on Tuesday into Wednesday, but the couple that do are trending towards the wetter side for the North Bay coastal ranges. The latest runs of the PG&E WRF model and the experimental RRFS are showing the possibility for rain totals of around 0.1-0.3" in the Sonoma County coastal ranges. This is a little higher than what previous runs of those models were showing, so it will be interesting to see if the trend towards slightly wetter conditions continues through Monday, particularly as the HRRR and the 3 km NAM start to capture the event.
DialH
, Issued at 1210 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2026 (This evening through Monday)
Another cloud-filled, mixed-sky day as upper level moisture advances ahead of a weak upper level shortwave trough currently off the coast of Mendocino/Humboldt county. Current radar is picking up on some echos aloft, but there are not expected to make it to the ground as rain, especially the massive block of dry air in the mid-levels up to about 23 kft. One thing this might actually bring us that you'll want to pay attention to is a wonderful sunset this evening, if you're in an area without low clouds.
..issued at 1210 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
A couple more chilly nights ahead before another approaching shortwave trough promotes moist, southerly flow, which will bring temps up a few degrees for overnight lows and afternoon highs. This shortwave brings the only confident chance for measurable rain within the 7 day forecast, and amounts have been trending lower with each issuance. By late Tuesday, a 120 kt jet streak downstream of the trough axis becomes the driving force to lift the system towards the north. This likely thwarts any meaningful rain chances across much of our region. As of now, it looks like the North Bay counties are the only areas that would get anything worth mentioning (0.05-0.10"), and elsewhere may only see as much as a hundredth or two. Most of this looks to take place Wednesday morning. After that, ensemble cluster analysis exhibits high confidence that the rest of the week will remain dry. The next chance of rain doesn't enter the picture until the 1st of February where a deeper upper level trough may swing through the EPac, but uncertainty is high in N-S placement. As such, there is not much confidence in early Feb rain at this point.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 923 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2026
For the 06Z tafs fog arrived a little earlier for KSTS than previously forecast. Will keep MVFR with IFR developing later for KSTS. Otherwise, elsewhere mainly VFR through the night and early Monday. We'll see a weak boundary approach late in the taf period which will lower some cigs and have winds becoming more southerly.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with an offshore flow.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Breezy drainage flow for SNS Monday. Low chc (less than 20%) of MVFR cigs creeping into MRY by the end of the taf on Monday.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 923 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2026
Gentle to moderate southerly breezes will continue through early Monday. Winds will be strongest north of Point Reyes. Winds diminish and switch to northerly on Wednesday. Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday. Conditions deteriorate Wednesday as seas build to become rough to very rough. Additionally, a weak passing storm system will bring light rain to the coastal waters Monday through Wednesday.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
