Issued at 921 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
A late day maritime push of stratus was running southeastward along the California coastline. Meanwhile the larger scale offshore pressure pattern development is currently underway with WMC-SFO 4.2 mb and SAC-SFO 1.7 mb. A dry cool front will produce increasing northerly winds through the Sacramento Valley with gusty winds over the North Bay and East Bay hills and mountains later tonight and Wednesday. Dry weather continues for the week and upcoming weekend with high pressure over the forecast area.
, Issued at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025 (This evening through Wednesday)
I would like to formally welcome the Sun back to Santa Rosa. What a long, strange Tule it's been.
Anyways, down to brass tacks. Beautiful weather today thanks to weak offshore flow and drier air in place compared to the last several days. This trend continues through midweek, and we're still looking at a stronger push of offshore flow overnight tonight. Timing remains the same with offshore pressure gradient peaking around mid-morning, so our strongest winds are still expected before 10 AM, but breezy conditions will likely last into the afternoon. Only notable change with this forecast update is a slight decrease in the magnitude of winds. Best forecast probability now depicts only a 30% chance of winds greater than 45 mph along the Mayacamas. For other lower elevations of Napa county and the interior East Bay there is a 50-70% chance of winds 30 mph or greater. Wrapping up probabilities, there is about a 60% chance of winds greater than 20 mph nearly across the board for the Bay Area and North Bay. We will see some notable drying with this event as daytime RH dips into the 30-40% range, but given non-critical wind/RH and moist fuels from the rain earlier this month, we do not have any major fire weather concerns.
..issued at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025 (Wednesday night through next Monday)
Quiet weather is restored again after the offshore winds on Wednesday. A boring pattern ensues once again into the weekend as a very resilient, some say "ridiculously resilient", ridge builds over the West Coast. There is high confidence in dry weather and above average temperatures through at least the early half of next week. Looking at longer term trends, there is a good chance that the West Coast will enter a more stormy pattern by the middle of the month, but there is high uncertainty in where exactly those storms would impact in latitude.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 356 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
VFR conditions continue with currently only STS expected to develop fog tonight. The wrench in the forecast could be a patch of marine stratus (currently offshore of the North Bay) that is expanding southwards along the coastline. Guidance shows some potential for lowered visibilities and ceilings from 06Z-012Z as marine stratus pushes in. Guidance remains in good agreement that offshore winds will strengthen around/after 12Z which will bring in drier air, improve any reduced visibilities/ceilings across the region, and suppress fog development overnight. For LVK- easterly winds overnight may support tule fog from the Central Valley being advected into Alameda County and potentially reaching LVK. Current models keep LVK clear overnight with current satellite imagery showing some clearing along the border of San Joaquin County and the East Bay. If fog is able to redevelop along the San Joaquin County/East Bay border and extends into Alameda County, then fog is likely to reach LVK. Winds remain north to northeasterly tomorrow with occasionally gusty winds expected from late tomorrow morning into the afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. For now kept light to moderate onshore winds returning this afternoon/evening but confidence is low to moderate given that winds have not shifted as of 00Z. Offshore winds return tonight with a weak sea breeze to return late tomorrow afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR at SNS, VFR with temporary MVFR conditions at MRY overnight. A patch of marine stratus is currently spreading southwards offshore of the North Bay. Moderate confidence that this stratus will extend far enough south to reach MRY and see a return of MVFR CIGs. Shortened the duration of MVFR CIGs with CIGs dissipating by 12Z as winds shift offshore and strengthen. Moderate offshore north to northeasterly winds are expected at both SNS and
(tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 356 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
Persistent high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will cause the moderate to strong northerly breeze to continue through tonight in the outer coastal zones. Winds will decrease to gentle Wednesday through Thursday before increasing back to a moderate breeze Friday. Rough sea heights will subside by Wednesday night as westerly swell abates.
(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 840 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
A moderate to strong northerly breeze continues through tonight over the outer coastal waters. Locally stronger, near gale force gusts are possible over the far northern outer waters through early tomorrow morning. Winds decrease to gentle late Wednesday through Thursday before a moderate to fresh breeze with occasional strong gusts returns Friday. Rough seas will subside by Wednesday night as westerly swell abates.
Issued at 834 PM PST Tuesday Dec 2 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
RGass
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
