, Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 (Today and tonight)
Offshore, a low pressure system continues to weaken and move southwards along the California coast. Precipitation associated with this system has largely ended over but KMUX shows a few scattered showers lingering over the region. Shower activity will continue to diminish through the remainder of the morning with largely dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day. As the low departs, ridging briefing rebuilds Thursday and Friday which will give us a brief break in the rain before it returns this weekend into next week. Temperatures warm, slightly, into the low to mid 60s across the lower elevations on Thursday while the higher elevations stay comparatively cooler in the 40s to 50s. Chillier overnight lows return Thursday night into Friday with lows dropping into the low 40s across the Bay Area and coastal Central Coast. Interior Monterey and San Benito Counties will get even cooler with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s. Portions of far southeastern Monterey County (Bradley and Fort Hunter Liggett) will reach the low to mid 30s Thursday night.
..issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
Dry weather continues into Friday with seasonally warm temperatures in the low to mid 60s. For anyone worrying about a prolonged dry spell, this does not look to be the case. The upper level ridge expected Thurs/Fri will be fairly progressive and is expected to exit eastwards Saturday as a deep upper level trough approaches the West Coast. This upper level trough and associated surface low will then linger offshore of the West Coast Mon/Tues before moving inland by mid-week. This will kickstart the return of rain Saturday afternoon/evening and will keep us rainy through at least mid next week. The question then becomes, well how much rain are we expecting? The answer is a little bit complicated as models have a large spread in forecast precipitation totals. The NBM alone shows quite the spread between the 90th percentile and the 10th percentile. For example, the 24 hour precipitation totals from 4AM Sunday to 4AM Monday under the 90th percentile show widespread 1.5- 3" with up to 5-6" in the coastal mountain ranges. Comparatively, the NBM 10th percentile is much more limited with totals ranging from 0.5-1.5". This hopefully provides some context for why QPF totals are uncertain and may change as we get closer to this system arriving. The initial precipitation forecast forecast shows a widespread 2-4" of rain with locally higher totals between 4-6" across the coastal mountain ranges from Saturday to Wednesday. This matches fairly well with the NBM 50th percentile and the NBM mean. All that to say, the upcoming week is likely going to be a wet one and the precipitation forecast will continue to be refined as we get closer in time to it. We can expect flooding concerns to increase this weekend into next week as we see successive days of accumulating rain. Soils are on the drier end now but will saturate quickly as this event begins.
Other concerns for the upcoming week include the potential for gustier winds Sunday into next week. We can expect gusts between 30 to 40 mph on Sunday and potentially again next Tues/Wed. Currently winds are below Wind Advisory criteria but can't fully rule out that one will be needed. There is a low chance (< 20%) for embedded thunderstorms starting Saturday as we see multiple rounds of rain move through the region. High temperatures will be seasonally cool in the upper 40s to 50s across the region for much of the upcoming week. Morning low temperatures generally stay in the 40s but we can expect cold mornings in the upper 30s to low 40s to return mid to late next week as a colder air mass moves in.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 335 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
Isolated to scattered showers persist over the mountains of the San Mateo Peninsula with a low pressure system weakening offshore. Shower activity is expected to diminish through the morning hours with the rest of the TAF period remaining dry. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions continue through the day with some mid- to high level cloud cover persisting across the region. Light to gentle offshore winds continue through the morning, with a shift towards a gentle to moderate onshore flow developing through the afternoon and evening. Overnight, the recent rainfall and clearer skies should promote the development of fog and low stratus, although the timing remains a little uncertain. This low cloud cover should persist to the end of the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, Isolated showers persist along the ridgelines to the west of the terminal but the terminal itself should remain dry through the TAF period. VFR conditions persist through the daytime period with some mid- to high level cloud cover continuing through the day. A gentle southeast wind this morning will shift northwesterly in the afternoon. Overnight, as winds diminish to a light and variable flow, low stratus and perhaps fog may develop, with low to moderate confidence on timing.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR with mid- to high level clouds through the day. Winds remain light and gently offshore through the morning before switching to a gentle onshore breeze this afternoon. As winds diminish overnight, low stratus and fog may develop early Friday morning, with timing and ceilings still uncertain.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
A weakening low pressure system spins around 50 nautical miles west of Half Moon Bay, generating cyclonic gentle to moderate breezes around the low with some fresh gusts to the north of the low. Winds should generally relax through the course of the morning with a shift to a fresh northerly breeze developing this evening through Friday. Moderate to rough seas are forecast Friday into the weekend, with 12 to 15 second period northwest swell coming through the waters. This will equate to hazardous boating and near- shore conditions.
Issued at 902 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
Hazardous beach conditions return to the Pacific Coast beaches, excluding Northern Monterey Bay, Thursday evening and continue through early Saturday morning. There is an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, in addition to breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. If you decided to visit the beach, remember your beach safety tips. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late Friday night for CAZ006-505-509-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
