Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1213 pm PDT Fri aug 7 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1211 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)

The warming trend will begin today and persist through the weekend as high pressure over the Desert Southwest builds westward. Thus, Heat Advisories remain in effect for all of the Interior Bay Area and Central Coast from 10 AM Saturday through 10 PM Sunday. The exception is the North Bay Valleys where we have temperatures forecast to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s. However, places such as Cloverdale is forecast to be the hottest and are expected to exceed 100 deg F. Temperatures under the Heat Advisory are forecast to warm into the mid 90s and up to 105 deg F in the warmest interior locations where the most widespread moderate to isolated major HeatRisk are present. Overnight lows are also forecast to be warm in the mid 60s in the hills just above the marine influences to low 80s (especially in the higher elevations). Maximum temperatures closer to the coast are forecast to be in the 60s to mid 70s thanks to the continued onshore flow and marine influences. Overnight lows near the coast are largely forecast to be in the 50s over the weekend.

During this weekends heat event, remember:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight and light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

Minor coastal flooding is also expected at the time of peak high tide (evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays this evening through next Thursday morning. Please see the CFW product we have out for additional details.

Long Term

..issued at 1211 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026 (Monday through next Thursday)

Temperatures begin a cooling trend on Monday as the ridge starts to flatten, yet the interior will still be quite warm. Northerly winds are forecast to increase and will result in hazardous conditions to small craft early next week as well, especially across the northern waters. Temperatures are then forecast to cool to below seasonal averages late next week as troughing develops off of the West Coast.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected to settle in by noon today, except at KHAF where they have a low chance of scattering out this afternoon. Moderate onshore winds increase to 10-15 kt this afternoon and become light overnight. The marine layer returns to most terminals tonight after 02-03Z Saturday for coastal sites and after 06-07Z Saturday for inland areas. It has been around 1200-1500 feet the past few days, though there is potential for it to compress down to 1000-1200 feet as the upper-level ridge continues to move westward. If the marine layer remains at the same depth, MVFR ceilings may develop around 12Z at KSJC.

Vicinity of SFO, West to northwest winds increase to around 15-18 kt this afternoon and ease to around 5-10 kt overnight. Medium to high confidence for IFR ceilings to develop around 06-10Z Saturday as the marine layer gradually becomes compressed these next couple of days. Stratus should clear around the same time as today, 17-18Z Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO. May have more of a SCT cloud deck than a BKN/OVC ceiling. If KSJC develops a ceiling, the bridge approach may develop one as well.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the afternoon with NW winds around 10-14 kt. Borderline IFR-LIFR ceilings (OVC005-007) develop again tonight with visibility impacts (4-6SM) possible at KMRY. Medium confidence on stratus arrival as it may roll in between 02- 07Z Saturday and persist until 17-18Z tomorrow.

Marine

(today through Wednesday) Issued at 950 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Moderate northwest winds continue on a gradual increase towards fresh to strong breezes with moderate seas building to rough by Sunday. These conditions remain elevated through the middle of next week, particularly across the northern outer waters. A long period southerly swell around 15 to 17 seconds persists through Monday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-508-529-530.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ503- 504-510-512>518.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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