Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

353 pm PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Short Term

, Issued at 1231 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025 (This evening through Thursday)

The last round of rain for this week arrives this evening and will gradually spread from north to south overnight. Rain may be lingering during the morning commute hours depending on your location, with areas south of San Francisco and the East Bay having the best chance. Road will be slick and there is a possibility for n nuisance flooding, such as minor ponding of water on roadways, poor drainage, or urban areas. Once the front works through, there may be some post frontal showers though those will diminish as drier air works its way into the region. In addition to rain, some gusty winds of 30-40 mph are expected along the coasts and higher terrain. Rain amounts for this system haven't changed much with the terrain of the North Bay, Santa Lucia, and Santa Cruz mountains potentially seeing up to 0.25-0.50" while everywhere else is closer to 0.10-0.20" or less.

Long Term

..issued at 1231 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)

No major changes to the extended forecast. Friday will be the start of a drier stretch of weather, with temperatures warming up a few degrees for the weekend. Highs rise into the 60s for most locations on Saturday, with cooler temperatures in the 50s for those on higher terrain. Sunday looks to be warmer with the mid 60s to near 70s expected for interior valleys, the mid 50s to mid 50s along the coast, and from the 50s to upper 60s for those in higher terrain. The weather looks to mostly be on repeat through early next week.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 353 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR-MVFR along with areas of IFR in rain tonight and Thursday. Low pressure system departs to the south Thursday night.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR-MVFR. Rain tonight and Thursday morning then a few lingering showers Thursday afternoon and early evening. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable tonight then northwest 10 knots Thursday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR-MVFR. Rain tonight and Thursday. Mainly light southeasterly winds becoming west to northwest 10 knots Thursday afternoon.

Marine

(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 322 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Hazardous marine conditions return late tonight into Thursday with a weak storm system moving across the coastal waters. Rain redevelops tonight and Thursday with thunderstorms not anticipated. This system will bring a return of moderate winds with strong gusts tonight through Friday before winds abate over the weekend. Seas build to between 10 to 15 feet Thursday and remain elevated into early next week. Elevated seas will be prolonged by the arrival of two distinct rounds of long period northwesterly swell.

Beaches

Issued at 322 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

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