Issued at 958 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
The short term forecast is on track with no changes anticipated. Visible satellite imagery this morning shows the marine stratus and fog has begun to burn off and retreat back to the coast. It should be fully retreated back to the coast by 11am PDT. Temperatures today are expected to be very similar to yesterday with maybe only a degree or two increase as high pressure starts to build over the area. As a result, widespread Minor HeatRisk with localized areas (mainly San Jose Valley) of Moderate HeatRisk will exist today.
, Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 (Today and tonight)
An extensive stratus deck has made its way from the coast into the Sonoma County valleys, the Monterey Bay region, and the northern Salinas Valley with a patch of stratus developing near the Berkeley Hills. The stratus deck is expected to develop across the valleys with moderate to high confidence that the interior East Bay remains clear through the night. Stratus will retreat to the immediate coastal area after sunrise before it starts to build again this evening.
The weather pattern across California is dominated by the fringes of a ridge over the Pacific Northwest and adjacent waters in the Pacific. Temperatures will generally range from near to slightly above seasonal averages in the Bayshore and inland regions, to below seasonal averages along the coast. With the raw NBM model output continuing to overshoot observed temperatures, I have tamped down the temperatures within the marine layer influence, which extends around 1500 feet thick based on observations from the profiler at Bodega Bay. Highs in the inland valleys reach the 80s, up to the lower to middle 90s in the warmest interior spots, the upper 60s to the 70s across the Bayshore regions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Most of the area will see Minor HeatRisk, corresponding to heat that is common during the summer period and comes with a low risk for heat-related illnesses amongst extremely sensitive populations. Isolated regions within the area, including the southern side of San Jose, patches within the far interior portions of the East Bay, and favored high-elevation areas within the Central Coast, including Pinnacles National Park, will see Moderate HeatRisk, corresponding to a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses amongst sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration. We continue to encourage people taking part in outdoor activities big or small to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade.
Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. Tonight's high tide has passed at the San Francisco tide gauge, where a water level of 1.97 feet above normally dry ground, or 7.81 feet MLLW, was observed at 11:18 PM on Sunday, which breaks the record for the highest water level observed during the summer season (outside the winter storm season of November to March) which was just set on Saturday evening. The next high tides are expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft MLLW) at 12:02 AM on Tuesday, and 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean!
..issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)
The ridge should gradually fill in through Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing the temperatures to remain relatively stable through the middle of the week. Towards Thursday and Friday, troughing should develop across the eastern Pacific and move into the western United States, allowing temperatures to drop below the seasonal averages into the upcoming weekend. Highs will range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s across the inland valleys and the upper 60s to the middle 70s along the Bays. Chances for rain are confined to the offshore regions and the Sierra Nevada range to the east of the forecast area. Towards the beginning of next week, ensemble model cluster analysis suggests some form of ridging will return to the western United States, and the 8-14 day outlook features a lean (40- 60% probability) towards temperatures above seasonal averages for the region.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1020 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Widespread coastal stratus and inland intrusion of stratus that lead to IFR to MVFR conditions has begun to recede back to the ocean. Inland intrusion will clear becoming MVFR to VFR by 18Z lingering longer for the coastal terminals. Coastal terminals will become MVFR to VFR around 19Z. Surface winds are generally less than 12 kts with some terminals such as KSFO, KOAK, KAPC and KLVK 12-15 kts.
Vicinity of SFO, Stratus will mix out 18z today and redevelops early Tuesday morning. West to northwest wind 5 to 15 kts.
SFO Bridge Approach, MVFR conditions due to stratus is in the approach and is forecast to mix out to VFR by 18z today. Stratus redevelops late tonight and Tuesday morning.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, Lingering stratus at SJC and OAK will mix out to VFR 18z today. VFR for the remainder of the day to tonight then stratus will redevelop tonight. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 kts.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Lingering stratus at SNS and MYR will mix out to MVFR by 18Z becoming VFR this afternoon. Stratus will return and move inland this evening. Stratus prevails tonight and Tuesday morning. Mainly onshore winds 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the Salinas Valley in the afternoon.
(today through Saturday) Issued at 837 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Southerly breezes persist today transitioning to northerly this afternoon into the night with a low south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. Winds will shift back to southerly tomorrow afternoon for the southern outer waters. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters tomorrow and Wednesday.
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches has been extended through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530.
PZ, None.
