, Issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 (This evening through Saturday)
A mid/upper level low pressure system remains about 100 miles off of the northern California coast. This feature has resulted in widespread rain showers across our region the past 24 hours with the North Bay picking up between 0.25"-1.25". Lesser amounts have been reported south of the North Bay, but some coastal and mountain locations have received up to 0.75". Overall, this has been greater than originally forecasted. This band of rain showers continues to shift inland and the threat for rain showers and thunderstorms will persist throughout the afternoon and evening, especially as day time heating increases surface based CAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing lightning, locally heavy rainfall, erratic/gusty winds, and small hail. Weak low-level wind shear does not support a mention of rotation that would lead to tornadoes and/or waterspouts through this evening. Rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue into the night, yet chances for both trend downward overnight.
An approaching mid/upper level low is forecast to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday and move inland Sunday afternoon across northern California. This is when we have all three ingredients for thunderstorms: lift, instability, and moisture. Some of the higher resolution and conviction-allowing models (CAMs) such as the RRFS indicate the potential for a narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) to move across the Bay Area and Central Coast Saturday afternoon and evening. This will be when we have the greatest potential for rotating cells that may produce waterspouts and/or weak tornadoes. In coordination with the Storm Prediction Center, we have been upgraded to a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday. The greatest potential being the threat of wind exceeding 40 knots.
From previous forecaster: "Anglers should take special note of the expected weather and have a plan to reach safe harbor quickly when the weather turns. Even without thunderstorms, the marine conditions will deteriorate through the day Saturday. If thunderstorms develop, the associated wind gusts are capable of capsizing small vessels. Fishing leads to more lightning deaths in the U.S. than any other activity. When thunder roars, head indoors!"
..issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
The rainfall amounts continue to trend higher today through Sunday with 0.50"-0.75" in the southern Salinas Valley, 1"-2" across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast, and up locally up to 4" in the coastal ranges. However, this rainfall will be mostly beneficial with no widespread river flooding anticipated. However, we can still see ponding of water on roadways, minor urban and small stream flooding, and flooding of poorly drained areas. This will be especially so if any heavier showers and/or thunderstorms develop and train over any one given area.
Post-frontal rain showers and isolated thunderstorm will continue into Sunday as a colder air mass settles into the region. This is when we may see snow fall across the higher peaks across the region, however little to no snow accumulation is expected. Lingering rain showers and isolated thunderstorms may persist into early Monday morning before a warming and drying trend resumes by Monday afternoon. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected Monday afternoon before rebounding to near seasonal averages by Thursday and Friday.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 428 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Conditions across the region remain rather messy as convective showers, with some isolated thunderstorms, develop across the interior regions, but the terminals are generally VFR with ample mid- to high cloud cover. Winds are generally from the south and southwest with the potential for strong gusts, especially in favored regions and the vicinity of thunderstorm development. In general, wind speeds and storm coverage will gradually diminish after sunset and through the overnight hours, with showers returning on Saturday. Southwest winds will increase through Saturday, with a narrow cold frontal rain band (NCFR) approaching the region towards the end of the 24-hour TAF period. While this NCFR will bring the strongest gusts and most intense precipitation, higher than those in the forecast, opted to not try to time out the NCFR arrival with this issuance.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions with mid- to high level clouds and a chance for showers continue through the day. MVFR conditions will develop early Saturday morning with the some showers through the morning, with ceilings lifting to VFR after sunrise. Winds will come from the southwest through the TAF period, with the winds dramatically strengthening through Saturday afternoon and evening as the narrow cold frontal rain band approaches the terminal. Wind gusts of 35 kt or above as the NCFR passes can not be ruled out. Winds will slightly diminish once the NCFR passes, with showers continuing around the terminal area.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR conditions with mid- to high level cloud cover and scattered showers through the evening hours. MVFR conditions are possible early Saturday morning, with VFR conditions returning after sunrise. Showers will come into the region on Saturday morning, with the narrow cold frontal rain band expected after the end of the TAF period. Winds will come from the southwest through the TAF period, with breezy winds through the evening, winds becoming gentle overnight, and breezy winds with strong gusts returning Friday afternoon.
(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 428 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Isolated to scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms remain in the forecast today. The next round of precipitation arrives late Saturday into Sunday, as the next weather system arrives. Increasing winds are expected, with isolated gale force gusts from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos. High pressure builds behind the system with fresh northwest winds developing early next week.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
