Issued at 902 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
The main rain band has exited to our east and scattered showers continue to move through the region. Additional rainfall is expected to be light but short periods of locally moderate rain are expected as showers move inland. Strong winds briefly developed this morning as the cold front passed through and in the wake of the front. Areas along the coast and across the higher elevations saw gusts between 40 to 50 mph with some of the windiest locations seeing brief periods of 60+ mph winds. Winds will remain breezy through the rest of today but should be on the downtrend. Highest confidence in gusts between 30 to 40 mph through this afternoon with winds diminishing late this evening into tonight.
, Issued at 1256 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 (Today and tonight)
A gale force low pressure system just outside of our marine zones will continue to strengthen as it approaches the Pacific Coast. The attendant cold front is expected to bring at least briefly hazardous conditions in terms of thunderstorms and wind. The three ingredients needed for a thunderstorm are lift, instability, and moisture. Multiple lifting mechanisms are in place with upper-level support. The instability can be characterized by conditionally unstable low- level lapse rates and low CAPE. Today's 00Z sounding observed a PWAT value of 0.52 inches (daily mean 0.59 inches) with the moisture confined to the low and mid levels. While not necessary for development, shear is another thing to look at for thunderstorms, especially for severe potential. Forecast soundings have 30 knots of 0-1 km shear, 50 knots of 0-3 km shear, and 90 knots of 0-6 km shear. This environment as a whole can be characterized as a high shear, low CAPE environment: 500 J/kg or less of SBCAPE, 1000 J/kg or less of MUCAPE, and 0-6 km shear of 35 knots or more. This environment will be capable of producing thunderstorms with lightning, locally strong to damaging gusts, accumulating small hail, and waterspouts. Strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the cold front and quickly veer after its passage to become northwesterly. Gusts up to 50 mph are likely across the Pacific Coast and in the higher terrain with 30-40 mph expected in low- lying interior locations. If you must drive this morning: keep your headlights on, keep your cruise control off, leave plenty of following distance between the car in front of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Post-frontal rain showers are expected with a low potential for thunderstorms. Post- frontal clearing will allow for widespread cold to very cold conditions to settle in Thursday night. These conditions will be impactful to people, pets, and plants - please take the necessary precautions for each. Damp conditions will have it feeling colder than the thermometer reads as well as pose the risk for black ice. The warm front associated with the surface low is adding some complexity to the snow forecast; nonetheless, high elevation snow remains possible, especially for the Central Coast where accumulation up to 10 inches is possible.
..issued at 1256 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
Friday will be cold and dry with temperatures well below normal. Rain returns Saturday as a rapidly intensifying storm force low pressure system encroaches the West Coast. Fortunately, it looks to stay in the Pacific Northwest which will keep our region merely on the periphery of it. Still, an increase in rainfall coverage and intensity and wind can be expected. The parent low in the Gulf of Alaska will persist, allowing for the entrainment of tropical moisture in the Sunday into Monday timeframe. Minor flooding in low- lying, poor drainage, and urban areas should be expected as a result. There's a low probability (20% chance or less) of mainstem river flooding; however, if the QPF forecast trends higher and/or the heaviest rainfall sets up over a watershed, probabilities will increase.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 341 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
The 500 mb trough is quickly moving eastward, the surface low and cold front will also move eastward across the Bay Area this morning. MVFR-IFR in moderate to heavy rain becoming showery during the day with gusty northwest winds. Clearing /VFR/ tonight and Friday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, Winds ahead of the cold front became gusty back at 11z with gusts to 35 knots. Post cold frontal winds will shift to the west and likely become gusty again near 35 knots during the morning and afternoon. Heavy rain tapering off to showers through later morning and afternoon. Clearing tonight and Friday morning. MVFR through morning then VFR this afternoon, tonight and Friday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Southeasterly winds increasing ahead of a surface cold front early this morning, winds then shifting to W-NW by mid to late morning. Heavy rain tapering off to showers by late morning and afternoon. MVFR through morning then VFR this afternoon, tonight and Friday morning.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 902 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
Northwest winds strengthening through today with widespread gale force gusts. Winds ease tonight into Friday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Rough to very rough seas prevail through the week. Rain chances return late in the day on Saturday and continue into early next week.
Issued at 351 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect from the coastal North Bay to coastal Monterey County until 9 AM Friday. Dangerous conditions with localized beach erosion can be expected. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Ca, High Surf Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530.
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ502- 503-505-508-512-513-528-529.
Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ504-506- 510-514>518.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Friday for CAZ517-518.
PZ, Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
