Issued at 918 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
Temperatures were a couple degrees cooler today compared to yesterday (albeit, still several degrees above-normal). Incoming cloud cover on Sunday continues to trend slightly later in the day, which will allow afternoon temperatures to reach their full potential, now resulting in Sunday's afternoon highs topping out 1- 3 degrees warmer than today. Otherwise, still expecting a cool down for the start of the work week.
Otherwise, no changes to the forecast this evening. Chances of precipitation have dropped to Minimal (5-10 percent) Sunday afternoon and evening in the North Bay and down to negligible amounts elsewhere, though occasional sprinkles are not out of the question. Precipitation chances ramp back up on Tuesday, with between 0.10 and 0.25 inches of rain expected areawide, upward of 0.50 inches possible in the higher terrain. Finally, precipitation chances return over the weekend as the region gears up for the approach of a cooler, wetter weather system.
The High Surf Advisory has been allowed to expire on time tonight at 9 PM PST. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM PST Sunday through 3 AM PST Monday. For more details, see the MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below.
, Issued at 1251 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 (This evening through Sunday)
As of 1:15 PM, visible satellite depicts thin high clouds dispersed throughout the Bay Area moving into Central California with some additional patchy altocumulus and mildly hazy skies. As yesterday's weak upper low has moved southeastward, 500 mb heights are expected to increase slightly, making the marine layer slightly shallower (around 600-800 feet deep) than this morning.
Coastal stratus is expected to return back to the coast late this evening with ceilings below 500 feet, slowly moving inland throughout the night. As mid level clouds thin out, cooling in the inland valleys will allow fog to develop at the surface even before the marine stratus reaches into inland areas. Widespread visibility reductions and mist are expected throughout the Bay Area within the marine layer with patchy fog, especially in the North Bay Valleys. Coastal status is less likely in the Monterey Bay as clouds could be shadowed by the Santa Cruz Mountains with Northwesterly surface slow. Radiation fog could still develop in the Salinas Valley as winds will be light. Low clouds partially clear out to the coast late in the morning yielding to briefly partly cloudy skies for the East Bay and south of San Francisco. More widespread and deeper clouds surge into the Bay Area in the afternoon, associated with the weakening front moving southward from the Pacific Northwest. Cloudy skies overtake the Bay Area by evening with a slight (10-20%) chance for spotty drizzle through around midnight.
For this system, not much change in the rainfall forecast through Monday: 20-40% chance of measurable rainfall along the North Bay US-101 corridor into Santa Rosa. For totals above 0.10", around a 10% chance for the southern Marin Hills, with increasing chances farther northward, up to 50% chance for the hills north of the Russian River.
..issued at 1251 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
Partly cloudy skies linger Monday, with the next opportunity for rainfall beginning Monday night as a shortwave trough moves into Northern and Central California. Best chances for widespread light to locally moderate rainfall will occur during the day Tuesday with scattered showers possible Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Models are closing in on a moderate confidence rainfall range around 0.2-0.5" for coastal and valley cities across the region with higher totals possible locally in the coastal slopes.
An upper level ridge will create briefly quiet and less cloudy conditions Thursday and Friday with clouds returning Saturday and increasing model agreement on a colder and deeper trough from the Gulf of Alaska to bring another soaking rainfall throughout the region. The NBM brings high temperatures lower elevations into the mid to upper 50s. There remains uncertainty in the forecast though current 850mb temperatures appear cold enough to deliver a dusting of snow to the tallest peaks in Monterey County.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 943 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
So far this evening, stratus has largely remained off the coast, with only localized development south of STS and pockets along the SF Peninsula. However, confidence remains high that marine stratus under onshore flow will move inland late tonight into Sunday morning. This will be a later onset than last night in many areas. IFR ceilings should be the dominant mode, but some areas of LIFR and fog will also develop. Fog is most likely near STS/APC. Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon with a return to mainly VFR conditions. A weakening frontal boundary will bring increased mid level clouds on Sunday, lowering during the evening. Light showers are expected along the North Bay coast with only sprinkles elsewhere. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected Sunday night with this weak front. Light NW to variable winds overnight, then W to NW on Sunday.
Vicinity of SFO, Patches of stratus have been observed on satellite/webcams north of the terminal, but have shown little inland progress. Marine stratus will expand along the coast overnight, impacting the terminal Sunday morning. IFR conditions due to low ceilings are expected, but can't rule out brief LIFR, along with reductions in visibility from mist. Should see improving conditions by 20-21Z on Sunday. MVFR or IFR conditions should return Sunday night as the weak front moves through. Winds will mainly be WNW around 10 kts or less.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, Marine stratus will make its way into SF Bay overnight, reaching the terminals around 09-13Z. IFR ceilings are expected, but a low chance of LIFR stratus or fog also exists. conditions improving around 18-19Z at SJC and 20-21Z at OAK. Low clouds returning Sunday night. Variable winds overnight, then light NW Sunday afternoon.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Mainly VFR overnight, with potential for IFR/LIFR low stratus or fog developing early Sunday morning. Winds variable overnight, returning to NW Sunday afternoon. Low clouds returning Sunday night.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 943 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
Generally light to gentle north to northwest winds across the waters persist through the weekend, with light west and southwest winds across the norther outer waters through Sunday. Generally moderate seas continue through Sunday. Moderate north winds off the Big Sur coast will strengthen to a fresh to strong breeze Sunday into early Monday. Winds continue to strengthen and seas build for most of the waters Monday into Tuesday.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
