, Issued at 127 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025 (This evening through Wednesday)
No major changes to the ongoing forecast, however the widespread coverage of mid/high level clouds may limit the amount of warming we see today. However, dry conditions prevail across the region as the ridge aloft shift southeast and begins to flatten ahead of our next storm system.
Tonight we are expecting the affects from a weak to moderate atmospheric river to begin in the coastal ranges of the Bay Area and then across the Central Coast by early Wednesday morning. This will be due to orographic lift as southerly winds increase. However, inland valleys will remain dry Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday will be the day we begin to see the full force of impacts across the entire region as southerly winds will continue to increase as the atmospheric river approaches with PWAT values up to 1.50". As for winds, we have issued a Wind Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday through 10 AM Thursday for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast for southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Wind gusts up to 55 mph are expected along the coast and in the higher elevations. Gusts have the potential to exceed 60 mph in the region's peaks, favored gaps, and passes.
..issued at 127 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025 (Wednesday night through next Monday)
By Wednesday night, a strong surface low will advance towards the Pacific Northwest while a trough approaches the West Coast. This will be the driving force that pushes this system through at a decent pace without stalling. As such, we are expecting the greatest rainfall totals from 4 AM Wednesday through 4 AM Friday to be in the coastal ranges where we expect to see 2-3" of rainfall (as these areas are expecting to pick up rainfall ahead of the main frontal system). Rainfall totals during the aforementioned time frame look to be around 1-2" in the higher terrain elsewhere in the region and the North Bay, 1-1.25" in the City of San Francisco, and generally less than 1" in the interior valleys and around the Monterey Bay region. There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall).
There remains less than a 20% chance of thunderstorms mainly early Thursday morning across the North Bay and Bay Area. These chances shift southward into the afternoon as the boundary shifts inland and to the south. The main concerns will be strong gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. In wake of the frontal boundary we are expecting post-frontal rain showers to continue through the remainder of Thursday and into Friday. Drier conditions return for Saturday. Lower confidence now moving toward this upcoming Sunday with respect to the trough previously forecast to approach the region. Temperatures look to lean below average and precipitation above average heading into the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
Widespread VFR lingers into the evening with overcast high clouds. Expect light to moderate winds for the afternoon that will reduce for most areas into the evening and into the night. Low CIGs form along the coast in the evening and slowly move inland into the late night. Breezy to gusty south and southeast winds build in the north Bay and along the coast into Wednesday morning with spotty light rain and drizzle. These winds will become widespread later into the day ahead of a strong cold front. Expect moderate to at times heavy rains and stronger winds later into Wednesday night.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR lasts into early Wednesday. Winds stay light into the mid afternoon before becoming moderate and northwesterly then southwesterly into the evening. Winds reduce into the night and become light and variable. MVFR CIGS and southerly winds build into Wednesday morning with stronger south winds building into that afternoon along with spotty pre-frontal shower activity.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR lasts into the evening. Moderate westerly winds build into the afternoon with overcast high clouds. Winds reduce into the evening as IFR CIGs build around the bay and fill the terminals into the night. Low cloud cover looks to erode into the mid morning on Wednesday.
(today through Sunday) Issued at 1105 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
Light to moderate winds last into Wednesday before a strong cold front approaches the area. Winds before and along the front will produce gales, including possibly storm force gusts over the northern and inner coastal waters, while passing eastward across the coastal waters and bays late Wednesday and early Thursday. Heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. Strong winds combined with a building NW swell will generate hazardous seas across the waters. Winds will decrease Friday, but the larger swell continues to build with seas up to 15 feet before diminishing through the weekend.
Ca, Wind Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512>518-528>530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Storm Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
