, Issued at 1215 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 (This evening through Thursday)
We have already seen showers and an isolated thunderstorm develop late this morning across the Eastern Santa Clara Hills and in the Mountains of San Benito County. As daytime heating continues, we are expecting convection to fire up in the East Bay Hills, Eastern Santa Clara Hills, the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Central Coast (County of Monterey/San Benito) this afternoon and evening. This is as the atmosphere becomes more unstable with CAPE values between 100-400 J/kg. However, vertical wind profiles don't favor organized convection, with little to no 0-6km wind shear. Therefore, probabilities for thunderstorms remain less than 10% through the afternoon and early evening. Any stronger cell (shower and/or thunderstorm) that develops over any one given location has the potential to produce 0.25"-0.50" per hour of rainfall.
The mid/upper level low will begin to retrograde back over the Pacific tonight into early Thursday morning and begin to pull in PWAT values of around 1.00". This will increase rain chances offshore late tonight and then will move onshore along the Central Coast through Thursday morning. However, with the loss of daytime heating, the thunderstorm threat will lessen. Forecast rainfall amounts have increased in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range now having a greater than 60% probability of seeing more than 0.25" through Thursday afternoon (this would include rainfall from today). These probabilities of seeing greater than 1.00" (40%-75%) remain confined to the Santa Lucia Range.
Conditions begin to dry out from north to south during the day Thursday as the mid/upper level low shifts further inland. However, rain showers look to linger over the Central Coast through the early evening.
..issued at 1215 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Cannot rule out rain showers to linger across the North Bay late Thursday night into early Friday morning as deeper moisture (PWAT values approaching 1.00") move across this region. In wake of the exiting trough, a warming and drying trend will kick off by Friday afternoon with temperatures gradually returning to near average this weekend as zonal flow develops over the region. Temperatures are currently forecast to warm above seasonal averages by Sunday and into the middle of the upcoming week.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 453 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across the Bay Area and interior Central Coast. Have added VCTS to the APC TAF but may need to be added in to LVK and SJC as well. Breezy onshore winds continue this afternoon before winds diminish overnight. Widespread rain returns by early tomorrow morning and continues through much of the TAF period. Cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms again tomorrow afternoon/evening but confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this time.
Vicinity of SFO, Gusty onshore winds diminish by late evening/overnight with breezy conditions expected again tomorrow afternoon/evening. MVFR CIGs are possible overnight but confidence is low to moderate. Rain chances increase as early as 06Z with more widespread rain arriving closer to 10Z. Rain chances decrease by the afternoon with a low potential for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR CIGs and gusty onshore winds through this evening. Overcast conditions continue through late tomorrow morning with winds to strengthen again during the afternoon and evening. Rain chances increase around 03 to 06Z with more widespread rain arriving around 10Z. Rain continues through the end of the TAF period.
(today through Monday) Issued at 1005 AM PDT Wed May 27 2026
Northwesterly winds continue to diminish through today and overnight into widespread gentle to moderate breezes over the outer and inner waters. Wind gusts also become more moderate, with the outer northern waters experiencing locally strong gusts through Thursday morning. Rough seas with heights of 11-16 ft continue to abate through today and become more moderate (5-9 ft) by Friday morning. Another round of strong to near-gale force winds are expected to develop over the weekend with building rough seas again.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
