, Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025 (Today and tonight)
Cloudy and cool to start the day around the Bay Area and Central. Today will be a transition day weather wise as one storm system exits SoCal and another storm system approaches from the northwest. Initially the region will be in a squeeze play with shortwave ridging overhead. Despite some ridging overhead, areas that are starting off cloudy have a high likelihood of remaining cloud through the afternoon. Through the afternoon the upstream storm system will inch its way closer to the coast. The associated cold front will also inch closer.
Latest forecast timing brings some pre-cold frontal showers to the North Bay just in time for the evening commute. The leading edge of precip will be warm sector scout showers. The main moisture push is still expected later tonight and early Thursday. Expect a rather wet overnight period as the fropa begins. The fropa will bring a brief period of moderate to locally heavy rain. Not expecting any rates to be high enough to cause issues on the Pickett Burn Area. Unlike the last system as the front slides S through the forecast area rainfall intensity will diminish.
..issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025 (Thursday through Tuesday)
Wet start to the day Thursday as the aforementioned cold front is traversing the forecast area. Biggest impacts will be to the Thursday AM commute. Minor ponding and a lower chance for nuisance urban flooding. By late Thursday afternoon precip will taper off from N to S behind the departing front. While there are some high PWATs associated with the fropa AR guidance doesn't appear to be high enough to be an AR. Overall, still looking like more beneficial rain than hazardous. Amounts are still roughly the same a tenth or two most areas and up to a half inch N Bay Mts and coastal mts. Weak instability will be present with the fropa, but current thinking is any thunder chances will be less than 15 percent so no thunder is in the forecast.
Outside of precip, the front will bring an uptick in winds, but no where near the wind conditions with the last two systems. Gusts of 30-40 mph will occur along the coast and higher terrain.
Drier conditions develop by early Friday. Dry and warm develop lasting into the upcoming weekend.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 356 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
MVFR at most sites as stratus spreads in across the Bay Area and Central Coast. CIGs are largely expected to stick around the entire day but will transition from MVFR to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. MVFR conditions return overnight as a weak cold front passes through the region. This front will bring light rain to the Bay Area and showers farther south. Guidance is indicating reductions in visibility to around 4SM as the rain starts up but this is more likely to be temporary with visibility fluctuating up and down. For now, reduced visibilities to 6SM as rain starts up but a tempo may be needed for lower visibilities as we get closer to front arrival time. Winds generally remain light out of the south to southwest before turning northwesterly after frontal passage early tomorrow morning.
Vicinity of SFO, Stratus has filled in over the SF Bay with MVFR conditions at SFO. Moderate confidence that stratus will prevail through late morning/early afternoon. VFR will persist through the rest of the afternoon/evening before rain and MVFR CIGs return tonight ahead of cold frontal passage. Southerly winds prevail for much of the day before switching to northwesterly tomorrow morning after cold frontal passage.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR at MRY, MVFR at SNS. Interesting stratus pattern over the Monterey Peninsula this morning. CIGs are largely MVFR but have started to rise at MRY. Confidence is low to moderate that CIGs will lower again at MRY this morning. VFR prevails late morning through tomorrow night with frontal passage to occur between 09-12Z. Rain chances increase and MVFR returns ahead of frontal passage. For now put the front arriving around 10Z in the TAF but some guidance suggests this could be pushed back closer to 12Z. Winds briefly become onshore during the afternoon before southerly winds return this evening into the overnight period.
(today through Monday) Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
Conditions improve across the marine environment today with winds diminishing and seas abating. Improvements will only be temporary with hazardous marine conditions returning late Wednesday as a weak storm system moves through the coastal waters. Rain is expected overnight Wednesday into Thursday with thunderstorms not anticipated. This system will bring a return of moderate winds with strong gusts Wednesday night through Friday before winds abate heading into the weekend. Seas build to between 10 to 15 feet Thursday remain elevated into early next week. Elevate seas will be prolonged by the arrival of two distinct rounds of long period, very high northwesterly swell.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
