Issued at 954 PM PST Mon Feb 9 2026
Plenty of high clouds today but still a pleasant day temperature wise with most areas in the 60s while our Santa Rosa observer reported a high of 70 this afternoon. IR satellite shows plenty of mid and high level clouds streaming over the region tonight which will keep temperatures fairly mild overnight. Weak surface low pressure is trying to develop just offshore in response to upper level diffluence. No immediate impact for the Bay Area while rain and snow is starting to develop over the high Sierra as jet energy passes over the region.
All eyes then focus on the deepening surface low, currently measured at around 1005 mb located near 35N/131W. While not particularly deep, after what seems like weeks of high pressure this system gives us some rain, wind and possible thunderstorms to focus on over the next 2-3 days. Following the 00z guidance the surface low wont deepen too much more as it makes a beeline towards the Central Coast the next 24 hours. Latest trends have been to slow the timing of rainfall til late Tuesday afternoon/evening with some pre-frontal showers along the coast and especially the coastal hills from Santa Cruz mtns southward to Big Sur.
Main impacts will likely be wind related on Tuesday with Gale Watches up for the coastal waters west of Big Sur. Southerly wind gusts in the 40 mph range dont look like they will penetrate too far inland but will have to at least consider some targeted wind advisories for the Monterey coast on Tuesday.
Unfortunately the trajectory of the low will mean strong southeasterly wind flow out of the Salinas Valley as well as the Santa Clara valley. This is bad news for orographic lift with easterly component worse than normal that will really enhance rain shadowing for places like Livermore, San Jose and Salinas on Tuesday. Despite the steep lapse rates we wont ever get ideal SW or NW wind flow across the region which will keep rain totals in check for many valley and interior locations. Final wildcard and item to watch will be thunderstorm chances. As noted lapse rates will be steep but little or no solar heating expected with blanket of cloud cover as a limiting factor. By Weds the low will weaken and wobble around with plenty of cold core showers that will drag down much cooler air from aloft. After weeks of spring like sunny and warm temps this system will bring a return of much cooler winterlike temps both during the day and the next few evenings. Showers to linger through Thursday morning then drying trend for much of Thursday midday to afternoon.
High pressure to rebuild Friday and Saturday but a stronger and colder system looks to bring more welcome rains to region Sunday and followed by subsequent cold systems.
, Issued at 1057 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Mid to high level clouds are exist over much of the state today as the storm track under goes a shift. Near the surface a cold front existed the central coast of CA early this morning and ushered in cooler air, with 24 hour temperature trends generally around 2 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday. Light north winds behind the weak boundary have been able to succumb to local influences with terrain and coastal interactions, however a few higher elevation observations do show north to northeast winds with occasional gusts up to 15 to 20 mph (Santa Cruz Mts, Diablo Range, and some East/North Bay Mts).
Current satellite places an upper trough and surface cyclone around 600 miles off the coast of northern CA today. This upper trough will dig southeast and strengthen as the surface cyclone meets a stationary boundary located to the southeast. This places the location of these features around 300 miles off the coast of central CA tonight into Tuesday morning. The upper wave will become a closed low as these surface features phase and more moisture gets thrown in the mix. The upper closed low continues to deepen Tuesday as it rotates from positive to a more neutral tilt. This will also sling the deepening surface cyclone to the northeast as reaches ~1001 mb to 1005mb. Strong winds wrapping around these features will be reflected all the way down to the surface.. with a 925mb to 850mb jet of 35 to 45kts that moves over the central coast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The track doesn't quite align for stronger southeast winds down the Salinas Valley, and initial gradients from KSNS-KPRB remain around 1.6 to 2.2mb which points to lower confidence in winds trending stronger up the Salinas Valley as we get closer. The higher terrain is a different story with the stronger winds aloft. 12Z HREF probabilities 75% chances of at least 35 to 45 mph gusts in the higher terrain of the Santa Lucias and Diablo Range, with 25% chances for 45 to 55 mph. Winds will begin to strengthen midday Tuesday, but peak in these areas later Tuesday evening and night.
A little after winds start to strengthen (Tuesday afternoon and evening) the upper closed low and surface cyclone will eventually land just right off the coast. Through the afternoon upper heights will trend down and increase mid-level lapse rates, as well as a quick window of isentropic ascent should move in with ample moisture (PWATs increasing to ~0.8"). Some lighter rain and clouds could be realized Tuesday afternoon as things approach. As lapse rates increase, instability will also increase. Rain will eventually become more widespread Tuesday evening with embedded showers and storms. Wind shear does exist, and will generally have more of a speed shear component.. however local terrain and coastal influences will very likely generate enhanced directional shear. Cooler air aloft, will help with ice forming and therefore lightning/small hail potential exists with some storms. Gusty winds and a few water spouts are not out of the question either. Locally heavier rainfall with storms will be seen too, however storms will be moving and the low will be wiggling around Tuesday night, leading to low confidence in training or stalling issues of storms.
..issued at 1057 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)
Wednesday morning, another piece of energy will rotate along the west side of the upper closed low, which will keep it centered over central CA through early Thursday. Although the features linger over the CWA, they will weaken starting Wednesday morning. Clouds and light to occasionally moderate rain at times will be seen Wednesday into early Thursday. Wind will gradually weaken Wednesday morning, with the stronger gusts likely remaining confident to the central coast (more details in short term section).
As the upper troughing exits to the south, upper ridging will build in for later Thursday and into Friday. A break in rain chances will be seen, with more sunny skies and temperatures slightly warming.
Chances for a quick return to a wet pattern continue to increase. Starting Sunday, an upper trough will start to dig southward along the state returning beneficial rain and cooler temperatures. Weaker surface features look to accompany this system, resulting in higher confidence in light to moderate rain, beneficial rain. The upper trough continues to dig south and amplify into early next week, which should continue wet and cool conditions over the CWA.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 954 PM PST Mon Feb 9 2026
Mainly high clouds overnight through Tuesday morning. SE winds beging to increase on Tuesday. -Shra possible late morning through afternoon but steady rain likely hold off until after 00z. Thunder chances in the region but not specically in the tafs.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with light SE winds through 16z then increasing through the day Tuesday. A few showers possible Tuesday afternoon with rain more likely after 00z.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Strong southeast winds for Salinas increasing on Tuesday with gusts around 30kt. SE wind flow likely to keep -shra to a minimum over the airports through Tuesay afternoon.
(today through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026
Fresh to strong northwest breezes prevail across the coastal waters today. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday. Southerly gale force gusts are possible on Tuesday in the waters south of the Golden Gate depending on the strength and track of the low. Rain chances return next weekend.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from 9 AM PST Tuesday through Wednesday morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
