Issued at 731 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025
A weak warm front is approaching the coast of far northern California this evening. The tail end of this feature could bring some light rain to portions of the North Bay overnight into early Friday morning. No rain has been recorded in the cwa yet, but the KBHX radar is showing some light to moderate in Humboldt County, slowly drifting south. Despite the mostly clear skies, atmospheric moisture remains high, with the 00Z balloon finding a PW of 1.07", easily in the top 10% for this time of year. The atmosphere will gradually dry out over the next few days, as weak offshore flow brings warmer temperatures and lower relative humidity across the cwa.
, Issued at 200 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 (This evening through Friday)
Sunshine, patchy coastal stratus, and fair weather cu popping over the terrain is a good way to describe this afternoon's weather. The increased sunshine has led to warmer temperatures with 24 hr trends running about 2 to 5 degrees warmer.
The bigger picture for the short term continues to show semi-zonal flow over CA with a deep low spinning off the BC coast. The frontal structure associated with the deep low will move through NorCal and brush the Bay Area. As such, there is still a chance for light rain showers over the North Bay later this evening through mid morning Friday. A few hundredths to a tenth or two in the wettest locations are expected through Friday. Higher accumulations of precip will be farther north. Golden Gate southward will remain dry tonight through Friday. Given the lingering low level moisture patchy valley fog will be possible across inland valleys.
Other noteworthy in the short term will be a burst of offshore flow across the Central Coast. 925 mb winds become more northerly Thursday evening and then northeasterly by Friday morning with gusts in the 25-40 mph range. Thankfully, fire weather concerns are very low given fire weather indices are well below normal for the Central Coast.
..issued at 230 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 (Friday night through next Wednesday)
Friday night into the weekend will see a change with the 500mb long wave pattern - a shift from zonal to highly amplified. A notable ridge of high pressure will build aloft and shift eastward over the Golden State and linger into Monday. At the surface, we'll see another push of offshore flow, but this time more standard and across the high terrain of the N and E Bay. As such, the offshore flow will dry out lower levels and allow for enhanced compressional warming. In other words, this weekend into Monday is shaping up to be Chamber of Commerce weather. Highs will max out well above normal with highs in the 60s/70s coast/bays and 70s/80s interior. Active thermal belts too with mild overnight lows in the hills.
For the longer range, Monday night and beyond, still not seeing a model "winner" at this time. That's ok, as the model "team" is coming into better agreement with a return to active weather. The ridge that will bring nice weather begins to fade by Monday night and is slowly replaced by trough on Tuesday. The troughing finally deepens off the West Coast on Tuesday with a low forming by Wednesday. Therefore, Monday and Tuesday look dry at this time with subtle cooling. Highest confidence (even with some model discrepancies) brings precip back to the forecast by early Wednesday. As is typical, light rain North Bay initially before spreading southward with increasing coverage and intensity. Initial rainfall amounts/intensity lean toward more beneficial rain and Atmospheric River guidance supports this too.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 931 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025
A weak frontal boundary will bring a small chance for light rain to the North Bay terminals through Friday morning. This feature will cause the marine layer to briefly deepen as it moves through the Bay Area before quickly compressing again Friday afternoon. The timing of this will likely allow most terminals outside of STS and HAF to dodge low marine layer stratus in the morning, but it could go either way, particularly for the more coastal terminals, and the confidence in this set of TAFs is low. Otherwise winds will remain mostly light before a gentle onshore breeze becomes established Friday afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, There is a 50-60 percent chance of MVFR stratus to move over the terminal for a few hours around sunrise as the weak boundary moves through. As such the confidence in the TAF is quite low, and there is a roughly equal chance that the ceilings don't form over the terminal in the morning. The marine layer will become more organized by midday, but will very likely remain cloud free through the afternoon hours.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, The latest observations and high resolution models are leaning more towards clear skies persisting through the TAF period for both MRY and SNS. There is still a chance for a sunrise surprise, but the probability of this is now less than 20%.
(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 931 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025
Rough seas are ongoing across the coastal waters dominated by a moderate period WNW swell. These seas will gradually diminish to moderate by Saturday with more favorable conditions persisting into next week.
Issued at 1118 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will persist through Saturday for all coastal beaches. Expect an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents as well as breaking waves up to 25 feet. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure, and never turn your back on the ocean! The increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents will linger Friday through early Saturday morning with westerly swell quickly rebuilding.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
