, Issued at 116 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026 (Today and tonight)
Surface high pressure will dominate most of today's weather with above normal temperatures and dry conditions prevailing. The only caveat to the dry conditions would be if an isolated rain shower skirts the North Bay. Nonetheless, no adverse impacts are expected from these rain showers.
..issued at 116 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)
A developing gale force low pressure system off the Northern California Coast will pull in moisture from the tropics as it heads toward the Washington/Canada border. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean IVT forecast peaks in excess of 500 kg/ms Tuesday morning, quickly decreasing as the moisture plume sinks south, with PWAT values forecast to break the daily maximum record. Even with rich moisture content, poor dynamics are expected to yield generally beneficial rainfall, especially south of the Golden Gate Bridge. Light to moderate rainfall is expected with low probabilities (10%) of exceeding 0.50"/hour which even then is exclusive to the North Bay. Ponding and slick roadways can still be expected. Any flooding will likely be more of a product of infrastructure (clogged storm drains, etc.) rather than the rain itself. No mainstem river flooding is expected. The pattern and the location of the low leads to high confidence that the North Bay will receive the highest rainfall totals as they will be under the influence of pre-frontal rain showers before the cold front progresses through. As such, minor flooding in low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas will be possible and if rain rates get high enough, shallow landslides will be possible. The source region of the moisture (off to our southwest) will result in the highest rainfall totals in southwest facing terrain with the help of orographic lift. Lee side valleys will get rain shadowed. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that surface high pressure in Baja California will quickly rebuild after Wednesday morning's cold frontal passage. A warming and drying trend will result, with temperatures climbing to 10 degrees above normal by Friday. Uncertainty arises this weekend in the evolution of the troughing over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The official forecast advertises a slight cooling trend with the passing of a system to the north of us.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM PST Mon Feb 23 2026
High clouds are building ahead of the next cold front. Expect mostly light winds through the day with wind directions being determined by local affects. These winds turn more southerly as the next front continues to approach into the night. Pre-frontal light showers arrive in the north bay into the evening and slowly spread South into the night. Expect more moderate rains to arrive in the North Bay into the early morning along the front. These rains will spread south through that morning, but weaken as they move south. Winds increase along the boundary, causing breezy to gusty southerly winds for much of Tuesday.
Vicinity of SFO, Light winds and passing high clouds last through the day. Expect southeast winds to build into the late night as light showers begin to move through the area. More moderate rain arrives into the mid to late morning with breezy to gusty southeast winds. These winds turn more southerly late Tuesday afternoon as rain rates increase.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, High clouds continue to build with mostly light winds. SNS sees southeast winds into the afternoon before they turn northwesterly, while MRY sees variable winds. Southeast winds build across the area into mid Tuesday morning as the front approaches.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1207 PM PST Mon Feb 23 2026
Rain chances and winds build the northern waters through the day and then spread farther south Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds stay breezy as the rains pass through the water, but ease by Wednesday. Dry weather prevails late for the second half of the week with light seas.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
