Issued at 850 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026
It was a chilly morning across the interior valleys where temperatures dropped into the mid to upper 30s. Portions of far interior Monterey County (vicinity of Fort Hunter Liggett) dropped below freezing overnight. Temperatures are warming up with fog currently being reported at the Livermore Airport. Light rain remains on track to return to the North Bay this evening into the overnight hours. Precipitation totals remain light with between 0.25- 0.50" in the North Bay and up to 0.10" across San Francisco and portions of the East Bay/San Mateo County. No impacts are expected from this due to the substantial dry spell in between our last system and this current one.
, Issued at 319 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 (Today and tonight)
The 00z KOAK sounding recorded 0.43" PWAT last night with HiRes short-term soundings indicating similar or lower values until after sunrise this morning in the North Bay, with the boundary layer not beginning to saturate until later this morning into the afternoon that far north. Prefrontal drizzle or light rain is possible along the North Bay coastal ranges later this morning into the afternoon with the added lift. Otherwise, the bulk of the rainfall is expected to move inland after sunset tonight, and shift east by sunrise Wednesday morning. Slight chance PoPs extend as far south as the Santa Cruz mountains later today and tonight, however rain totals south of the North Bay are expected to be less than 0.1" where it does rain. Inland areas of the North Bay like Santa Rosa are likely to see around 0.20" (mean hi-res ensemble %) with higher end reasonable amounts near 0.30" (hi-res 75th%), thus little impacts beyond wetting rainfall are expected. Lesser amounts are expected farther east as the progressive shortwave trough moves out of our area to the east.
..issued at 319 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 (Wednesday through Monday)
The progressive upper level trough moving across the North Bay will shift east Wednesday morning with a ridging pattern developing quickly in its wake. Weak offshore flow will return as a result with another dry airmass filling in for the remainder of the work week into the beginning of weekend. Long period westerly swell and increasing wave heights will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and riptides along with breaking waves up to 19ft Wednesday night through Friday morning, with a Beach Hazards statement issued for that time period, see the Beach Hazards discussion for more details. Slight chance PoPs return as soon as late Saturday night into Sunday for the North Bay once again, however a lack in consensus of the location, depth and timing of the developing trough leaves far more questions than answers at this point.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1006 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026
Mostly VFR conditions across the region at this hour. As a weak frontal boundary approaches the region look for conditions to deteriorate around mid afternoon across the North Bay and then late this evening and overnight across the Bay Area terminals. At this time, mostly MVFR conditions are expected over this region with fog returning early Wednesday morning at STS and LVK. Looking less likely MRY and SNS will receive anything more than VCSH and brief MVFR conditions this evening and into early Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are expected by Wednesday afternoon in wake of the frontal passage.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions will prevail through around 03Z Wednesday when conditions become more likely to reduce to MVFR as rain showers move across the region. A greater probability will be in the 06-09Z Wednesday timeframe for MVFR (temporary IFR if and when RA is present) as the main rain band is forecast to move across the terminals. MVFR will persist through about 18Z Wednesday before improving to VFR as skies clear in wake of the passing frontal boundary.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Mostly VFR through the TAF period. Drainage winds (southeasterly) once again at SNS will become onshore by this afternoon. A weakening frontal boundary will approach late this evening increasing the probability for MVFR conditions. However, confidence is only moderate at this time. There is greater probability for VFR conditions by 18Z Wednesday.
(today through Sunday) Issued at 850 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026
Light to moderate southerly flow will prevail over most of the waters as a weak cold front approaches from the west today through early Wednesday morning. This will bring light rain to the northern coastal waters through Wednesday morning. Winds will be moderate to breezy north of Point Reyes with locally hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds diminish on Wednesday and switch to northerly that night. Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday, but build rough to very rough Wednesday night.
Issued at 359 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026
Long period swells with low wave heights begin to arrive on Wednesday, but wave heights begin to increase that night while periods stay long leading to hazardous conditions. A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued from 09 PM Wednesday through 09 AM Friday. Significant wave heights look to range from 14 to 19 feet. The main threat will be from sneaker waves and rip currents. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
