Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

902 pm PDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 106 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)

An upper level trough moving across the Pacific Northwest will keep breezy to windy conditions in place through the evening across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Expect gusts 20-40 mph, except up to 50 mph through gaps and passes, through the evening before subsiding overnight. After this morning's drizzle, light rain showers, and widespread cloud cover, drier air moving in from the north will keep skies mostly clear through the evening. A much more shallow marine layer and drier air will greatly reduce the amount of stratus overnight into Sunday morning compared to the past couple of nights. However, stratus is still expected in coastal areas along the Central Coast as well as higher terrain due to uplift from northwesterly flow.

On Sunday, the center of the trough will move away from the area. This will keep the marine layer compressed with mostly clear skies by the afternoon. High temperatures will rise 5-10 degrees from today as a result, with 60s along the coast, upper 60s to 70s along the Bay shoreline, and 70s to low 80s in the interior. Despite the warming, HeatRisk is expected to remain Minor. Onshore winds will become breezy once again in the afternoon and evening, but weaker than today with gusts 15-30 mph, except up to 40 mph through gaps/passes. Stratus should increase Sunday night, but the shallow marine layer will limit inland development.

Along the Pacific coastal beaches, there is a possibility for marginal coastal flooding. Due to the upcoming full moon (Monday), thermal expansion of Pacific waters, and southerly swells, coastal flooding for low lying beaches at predominantly south facing beaches is possible at high tides through Monday. An uptick in long period southerly swell will result in a high risk of rip currents and sneaker waves. Never turn your back to the ocean! Beach hazards will be in effect through the weekend and into much of next week, see the beaches discussion for more information.

Long Term

..issued at 106 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 (Monday through next Friday)

Temperatures will continue their upward trajectory on Monday as an upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific nudges inland. Temperatures along the coast will hold nearly steady, while highs in the interior rise a few more degrees. However, the warming trend will end Tuesday as another upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring cooler, below normal temperatures once again by Wednesday and Thursday as the trough ushers in cooler air aloft. Onshore flow will also increase along with the potential for a deeper marine layer and coastal drizzle. Onshore winds will be breezy to windy each afternoon and evening. By Friday, ensembles are more split on the evolution of the pattern, but ridging becomes a possibility. This is reflected in the forecast by an uptick in temperatures.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 836 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Mostly clear skies will continue through the TAF period for northern areas. Elevated winds this evening will ease some into the night and early morning. Cloud cover will fill in a bit more over the Monterey Bay with MVFR CIGs tonight, eroding into the mid morning on Sunday, leading to widespread VFR. Onshore winds increase again Sunday afternoon, though not as strong as today. MVFR conditions returning to the Monterey Bay region and areas along the immediate coast Sunday evening and night.

Vicinity of SFO, Mostly clear through the TAF period. Winds will remain elevated into the night; winds increasing near 25 kts on Sunday afternoon. Confidence increasing VFR conditions remaining through Sunday night.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Winds gusting near 20-25 kts the next few hours with lighter winds overnight. MVFR CIGs will continue to fill in overnight. These CIGs look to scatter into mid Sunday morning (15-16z) with weaker onshore winds in the afternoon. MVFR CIGs filling in again around 03-06z Mon. with moderate to high confidence on timing and occurrence.

Marine

(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 836 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Stronger winds will continue at times through the night, ease slightly on Sunday morning and then increase again Sunday evening and night. These strong winds and rough seas will result in hazardous conditions for small craft across the waters at times well into the work week. Expect gale force gusts to develop in the northern outer waters and along coastal jet regions as well. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast.

Beaches

Updated at 100 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for the Pacific Coast Beaches through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

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