Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

343 pm PST Wed Jan 28 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 136 PM PST Wed Jan 28 2026 (This evening through Thursday)

Dry weather has returned to the region with ridging rebuilding over the West Coast. Patchy fog returns tonight across the North Bay and East Bay Valleys with locally dense fog possible along the bay shoreline. Morning low temperatures will remain chilly, particularly across the North Bay Valleys and interior Central Coast. Low temperatures will be in the 40s for most locations with the chilliest spots in the mid to upper 30s. High temperatures on Thursday will warm slightly compared to today. Most interior locations will be in the mid to upper 60s with portions of the Salinas Valley reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. The exception will be the North Bay and East Bay Valleys where fog will keep temperatures cooler and see high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Light offshore flow continues through the short term and into the long term forecast with no major changes.

Long Term

..issued at 136 PM PST Wed Jan 28 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Warmer and drier weather continues through at least Saturday with the potential for some light rain/drizzle across the North Bay Sunday night into Monday. Upper level ridging persists through Saturday when a shortwave trough reaches the West Coast and forces the ridge to exit eastward. Shortwave troughing will be short lived given its progressive nature and it will exit our area by early Monday morning. Ridging rebuilds by late Monday and remains entrenched over our area through the rest (and arguably past the end) of the long term forecast. Temperatures will be running between 5 to 15 degrees above normal this week with the warmest temperatures in the interior Central Coast. Friday and Saturday will be the two warmest days with highs in the low to mid 70s across the interior Central Coast, portions of the Santa Clara Valley, and the Santa Cruz Mountains. Everywhere else will stay in the 60s. Temperatures cool, becoming more seasonal, Sunday and Monday as shortwave troughing moves through. High temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the Bay Area and Central Coast. The cool down will be short lived with above normal temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s returning Tuesday and Wednesday. Light rain/drizzle is possible across the North Bay Sunday night into Monday as the shortwave trough moves through. Unfortunately for rain lovers, only a few hundredths of an inch is expected and it looks to be limited to the North Bay Coastal Mountains. Models are trying to show deep upper level troughing returning to the West Coast around mid- February but confidence is low at this time.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the SF Bay Shoreline Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. This will primarily effect low lying areas directly along the bay shoreline and is not expected to be as widespread as it was earlier this month. If your commute takes you directly along the bay shoreline, be prepared for potential impacts to your drive and local road/parking lot closures. A Beach Hazards Statement goes into effect at 9PM tonight and remains in effect through 9AM Friday morning. For more information see the Beaches section below.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 343 PM PST Wed Jan 28 2026

Moderate to high confidence VFR forecast tonight and Thursday with exception of patchy valley fog /LIFR-IFR/ developing e.g. KSTS between 14z and 17z Thursday.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR. N-NE wind temporarily shifting to NW then light and variable tonight and Thursday morning. West wind 10 knots Thursday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Onshore winds 5 to 12 knots early evening then becoming E-SE wind 5 to 15 knots tonight and Thursday morning. Onshore winds near 10 knots Thursday afternoon and early evening.

Marine

(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 332 PM PST Wed Jan 28 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail through Friday before winds veer to become southerly over the weekend. Moderate seas will build to become rough for the inner waters and outer waters with very rough seas expected Thursday for the northern waters.

Beaches

Issued at 347 AM PST Wed Jan 28 2026

Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches tonight and persist through Friday morning. Long period westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf, and never turn your back on the ocean!

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from 9 PM PST this evening through Friday morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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