, Issued at 1211 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 (Tonight through Friday Night)
While dry conditions are forecast during the short term, there will be the potential for pockets of fog. Satellite imagery at this hour has revealed mostly clear conditions, outside of some developing stratocumulus due to daytime heating. All in all, it should be a very pleasant afternoon which is a nice contrast to the last several days rain.
Observed 72 hour rainfall amounts have ranged from 3-6" across the Santa Lucia Range, 1-3" across the Santa Cruz Mountains, and 0.25-2" elsewhere. Northerly 925mb flow of around 15 knots with surface winds largely under 10 knots in tandem with mostly clear skies should be sufficient to allow for radiational cooling. If these winds are a little stronger, however, this may limit cooling and thus fog production. That said, recent rainfall will contribute to the overall fog threat. Assuming winds diminish sufficiently and skies remain clear, additional moisture flux from recent rainfall will foster fog development. In some spots, fog may reduce visibility down to 1/4 mile. At this time, the most probable regions for fog will be across the North Bay, parts of the Santa Clara Valley, and interior portions of the Central Coast. Regardless of where you are, be sure to allow for extra driving time on Friday Morning as sudden changes in visibility may transpire along your route. Temperatures tonight will also be lower than the past few days, with some of the aforementioned regions most likely to see fog dipping down into the mid 30s. If winds really cease, some of the NBM 10th percentile may verify in spots with temperatures in the upper 20s. For now, the areal coverage of MinT regions below the mid 30s precludes the need for any cold weather products, but it may not be a bad idea to bring in or cover any sensitive plants and tend to any sensitive animals our crops.
Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast through the day on Friday as 500mb shortwave ridging builds and offshore flow increases slightly during the day.
..issued at 1211 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday)
Late Friday night into early Saturday, low level flow be become more southerly. As the winds shift, low level wind shear may tend to keep the boundary layer mixed to keep the areal coverage of fog in check. As noted above, if winds are stronger (or weaker) than advertised, the coverage of fog may be less (or more if winds are weaker).
PoPs re-enter the forecast as early as Saturday mid-morning, however, there are some caveats associated with this. A compact upper low is forecast to amplify and move closer to the CA coastline. As is frequently the case, the upper troughs/lows that are undergoing amplification will typically be a little slower to move eastward. NWP for the upcoming weekend seem to be following this trend with initial forecasts offering broad-brushed PoPs across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast by 18Z (10AM PST) Saturday, with the latest precip forecast confining 20 PoP to the western Sonoma Hills. Hi-res NWP is even less bullish with measurable rainfall before 18Z Saturday. For now, we'll roll through NBM PoPs for one more cycle, but alterations may be warranted such that Saturday is largely rain-free. Saturday MaxT are anticipated to be a few degrees lower than Friday as cloud cover invades and translates to filtered sunshine.
Sunday and into early next week will feature a more active weather pattern. The overall synoptic weather pattern yields high confidence that widespread rainfall will take shape through the day on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis should translate to a tightening of the MSLP/low-level high gradient. This should allow southerly winds to increase. 925mb flow ramps up to around 40 knots, especially along the Pacific Coast which could translate to the potential for gusty surface winds. The chances for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph (35 knots) on Sunday are greatest along the Big Sur Coastline, with probabilities around 70%. Low to medium probabilities (40-60%) of wind gusts above 40 mph span other Pacific Coast regions as well as across the higher terrain of the Bay Area and Central Coast for Sunday and Monday.
With the larger synoptic scale pattern favoring more in the way of storm systems through our region next week, we'll likely have to contend with cumulative effects from periods of rainfall. There do remain some differences with regard to speed and placement of various systems and this translates to a few scenarios that have near equal chances of panning out. What we are confident on is that most if not all areas will see measurable rainfall at some point next week as even low-end scenarios offer 48 hour QPF ending Tuesday Evening of 1-2", while the higher end (90th percentile) advertise a general 3-5" of rainfall with 4-6" across the Coastal ranges. Because storm systems will likely be occuring within close spatial proximity to one another, runoff and subsequent flooding may unfold. We will continue to fine tune messaging as we go through the weekend, but those across the area should be prepared for rainfall and potential flood issues as we progress through next week.
Finally, there will be an opportunity for snow across the peaks of the North Bay Mountains, Santa Lucia Range, and the Gabilan Range as we progress into next week. A little too early to determine exact amounts, but snow levels are forecast to drop down below 4,000 feet.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 407 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
Currently VFR at all terminals with cumulus in the higher terrain beginning to dissipate as the surface low moves off to the southwest and daytime heating is on the downtrend. Moderate to high confidence that all terminals will have sub-VFR conditions return tonight. With ample low-level moisture, light winds, and clear skies, the stage will be set for radiational cooling. Confidence is high that ceilings will be low, likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. There is a moderate potential for fog as well, with highest confidence of it happening within interior valleys.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with northerly flow. Moderate confidence on the return of sub-VFR conditions to the terminal tonight - likely IFR. Diurnal winds will prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with westerly flow at both terminals. Moderate confidence on the return of sub-VFR conditions to the terminal tonight - likely on the cusp of IFR to low-end MVFR. Diurnal winds will prevail.
(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 407 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
A fresh northerly breeze has returned to the region and will continue into Friday night. Moderate to rough seas are forecast Friday into the weekend, with 14 to 18 second period northwest swell coming through the waters. This will equate to hazardous boating and near-shore conditions. Southerly winds are then develop by Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system that is forecast to bring periods of rainfall across the coastal waters through much of next week.
Issued at 943 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
Hazardous beach conditions return to the Pacific Coast beaches, excluding the northern Monterey Bay, Thursday evening and continue through early Saturday morning. A moderate to long period swell will arrive late this evening and will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, in addition to breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. If you decided to visit the beach, remember your beach safety tips. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from 10 PM PST this evening through late Friday night for CAZ006-505-509-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
