, Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025 (Today and tonight)
The forecaster's lament this morning, Many times in the summer this past season, we were humbled by fog and stratus. It seems to be the case again these past few days as the Tule fog and stratus have impacted a decent portion of our Bay Area forecast counties. In particular, the North Bay, but that doesn't mean the rest of the Bay Area hasn't been tricky. The forecast challenge for today will be the timing and the status of the stratus and its effect on high temperatures. Yesterday, many models were pointing to a few hours of afternoon clearing for the North Bay; however, that ended up being quite limited and late in the afternoon if any places saw Sun. This kept high temperatures lower than expected, even with the changes. Given there isn't much sign for a huge pattern change, opted to go with an even more pessimistic forecast than yesterday. Which means, little no to clearing again for the North and East Bay and that should keep temperatures similar to yesterday, perhaps a hair warmer if one holds out hope for a peak of Sun earlier in the afternoon. Any clearing that does happen, it should be filled back in by the evening, leading to another cloudy night.
..issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025 (Tuesday through Sunday)
You guessed, it not much change in the extended forecast. An inside slider is set to dig into the Great Basin midweek, leading to gusty offshore winds for the North Bay, East Bay, and Santa Cruz mountains. Look for northeast winds to gust to about 25-35 mph with locally higher gusts up to 45 mph for higher ridge tops and favored gaps and passes. Winds gradually increase late Tuesday night, peak Wednesday morning, and wind down during the afternoon and evening hours. After that fairly quiet weather remains on tap as upper level ridging noses into the region. Ensembles hold weak ridging through the weekend with more zonal flow returning after that.
The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook has us leaning above normal for temperatures, with near normal or just below normal chances for precipitation. Given the pattern, this leads to some uncertainty in the forecast so stay tuned in to see how the forecast evolves.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1014 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Again a mix bag of LIFR to VFR conditions across the region this morning with flight categories forecast to return to VFR by midmorning or early afternoon. Offshore winds aloft are helping to allow for drying conditions in the boundary layer with offshore winds prevailing over the San Francisco Bay terminals through much of the day. There remains low confidence for low ceilings and/or fog development overnight and into Tuesday morning. Onshore winds are have a greater potential to return to the Bay Area terminals by early Tuesday afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, MVFR forecast to improve between 19Z-21Z. Northeast to east winds 8-12 kt today, becoming light and variable tonight. Low confidence of sub-VFR ceilings early Tuesday morning. Greater potential to see northwesterly winds return Tuesday afternoon with VFR conditions.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, LIFR ceilings at KMRY, forecast to return to VFR by around 1930Z and remain VFR throughout the forecast period. Onshore winds increase by early afternoon before easing after sunset. Drainage winds are expected in the Salinas Valley again early Tuesday morning.
(today through Saturday) Issued at 1014 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas will prevail through Tuesday morning. Hazardous marine conditions return Tuesday afternoon as northerly breezes increase to become fresh to strong and seas become rough to very rough. Conditions improve Thursday with moderate northerly breezes and moderate seas.
Issued at 1014 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Wednesday evening with a very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
RGass
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
