, Issued at 249 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 (Today and tonight)
Current observations show clear skies and dry conditions across the majority of the CWA as of 1 AM PST. However, this is set to change shortly with KMUX showing precipitation echoes on the verge of entering Monterey/San Benito Counties. Satellite shows a wider area of cloud cover and stratiform rain to our south off the coast of Southern California. This feature will progress northwards through the rest of today and bring us another round of rain. High resolution guidance from the HRRR shows rain reaching southern Monterey and San Benito Counties by 6 AM PST and spreading northward into the Central Coast during the morning hours. Showers will reach the South Bay and Santa Cruz County by late morning/early afternoon with scattered showers spreading into the rest of the Bay Area during the afternoon. Given the south to north progression of the stratiform rain, the highest precipitation totals this time will be in the Central Coast (1-2.5") with between 0.5-1.0" for Santa Cruz County and the majority of the Bay Area. The North Bay looks to receive the lowest amounts of precipitation with totals between 0.25- 0.5". High temperatures today will be in the 50s to low 60s across the Central Coast and 60s to low 70s across the Bay Area.
The Extreme Forecast Index is highlighting a substantial portion of the Central Coast (in addition to Southern California and the Central Valley) for extreme rainfall today. For our CWA, this is mainly a concern for Monterey and San Benito Counties where the heaviest rainfall is expected. If we see a stronger surge of moisture we may see rainfall totals closer to the 90th percentile of 2.5-3" across the Central Coast today. The Santa Lucia Range saw between 3-6" of rain from our last system with another 1.5-2.5" expected today. Given that soils are likely still saturated, we may see some localized nuisance flooding across the Central Coast today. A marginal risk (5%) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding has been issued for the Central Coast today with a slight risk (at least 15%) for far southeastern Monterey County in the vicinity of Parkfield. Thunderstorm chances are fairly contained to the interior Central Coast today where there is a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms. While we do have some MUCAPE (100-200 J/kg) and slightly conditionally unstable 700-500 mb lapse rates across the interior Central Coast, confidence is low that thunderstorms will develop. The main area of lift associated with the cut-off upper level low will be well to our south where thunderstorm conditions are more favorable over Southern California.
..issued at 249 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 (Sunday through Friday)
Scattered, light showers continue on Sunday before more widespread rain returns Sunday night into Monday morning. More widespread rain returns as a result of a deep upper level trough pushing into the West Coast and forcing the cut-off low over Southern California to progress east. Most interior areas will see between 0.5-1.0" while the coastal mountain ranges will see between 1-2". Locally higher totals are possible in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range. Higher end scenarios (NBM 90th percentile) more widespread totals between 1.5-3" are possible. A marginal risk (5%) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding has been issued for Sunday across our entire county warning area. Given that this will be our third system within a short time frame, soils are likely already or will be saturated by the time this system arrives. With that in mind, we are likely to see an uptick in nuisance flooding particularly in areas that have received heavy rainfall recently. If you encounter flooding on roadways, do not drive through it instead turn around, don't drown. Winds are expected to strengthen Sunday into Monday which, in combination with saturated soils, may result in downed trees or power lines across the area. While the winds are expected to be weaker than what we saw last week, we are still looking at gusts between 30 to 40 mph with locally stronger gusts in favored areas. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a general mention of thunderstorms for portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast on Sunday. Thunderstorm chances will be highest Sunday evening into early Monday when frontal passage is set to occur. High resolution guidance shows some MUCAPE, lapse rates around 7 C/km, and decent low level shear with cold frontal passage to act as a source of lift. If this system does slow down, we may see a shift to early Monday for the highest thunderstorm chances compared to late Sunday.
In the wake of our Sunday-Monday system, the region will dry out and a much cooler air mass will move in as ridging builds in. 850 mb temperatures showcase this cold airmass well with 850 mb temperatures forecast to be around 0C-3C for much of this week. For context, the SPC sounding archive shows the minimum 850 mb temperatures for mid November are around -2C to -1C with temperatures in the 0C-2C range in the bottom tenth percentile. What are we looking at temperature wise? High temperatures will effectively stay in the 50s to low 60s through late this week. Mornings will get progressively chillier starting Sunday with low temperatures dropping into the 40s region wide. The higher elevations and interior Central Coast will be particularly chilly with lows dropping into the low to mid 30s. By late next week, another upper level trough looks to arrive late Wednesday with widespread rain continuing through Friday. While we are too far out to discuss the exact details of this system, it is worth keeping an eye on as our unsettled pattern and wet start to the rainy season is set to continue.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 323 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
VFR conditions persist across the terminals early this morning. There is a chance STS gets hit with mist or fog, but the winds have been just strong enough to keep the visibility unrestricted for now. Through the TAF period MVFR ceilings and light rain showers will move in from the south. This system will also bring shifting wind directions as it approaches the terminals.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with increasing mid level clouds and a gentle northerly breeze. While overcast skies will persist, there is only a slight chance of ceilings dropping below 3,000 feet today. There is a much better chance overnight into Sunday as the light rain moves in from the south. Winds will remain light through the morning with a few hours of moderate onshore winds in the afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Since the rain is moving in from the south, the Monterey Bay terminals are first in line. While the TAFs don't bring rain in until 21Z, there may be a light shower or two before the more consistent rain starts. Drainage winds will flip back onshore this afternoon before synoptic forcing shifts them southerly this evening.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 323 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
Sunday will bring moderate to fresh north to NW winds, moderate seas up to 8 feet, and a few rain showers. A storm will bring strong to near gale force northerly winds Sunday night, quickly building very rough seas by Monday morning. Conditions will gradually improve Tuesday-Wednesday. Very high WNW swell moves in late week.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
