Issued at 806 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025
Light offshore winds have developed across the cwa. These winds will gradually dry the air mass. From 12Z Friday to 00Z Sunday the PWAT will drop from an impressive 1.31" to around 0.5". That's the top 0.5th percentile to near the bottom 25th percentile. In the meantime the marine layer is rebuilding tonight and there is still enough low level moisture for stratus to persist through the morning. By Saturday afternoon the skies will clear with warm and dry conditions persisting into Tuesday. High clouds are moving over the Bay Area, and will remain in place until a potential atmospheric river arrives mid to late week.
, Issued at 112 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 (This evening through Saturday)
Low clouds prevail across the North Bay and down into the Bay Area with less cloud cover south of these regions. This may limit the amount of warming this afternoon, but only by a few degrees or so. However, mostly clear skies are forecast over the Bay Area and Central Coast by this afternoon as weak offshore flow aloft continues. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the low-to-mid 70s across the interior with 60s closer to the coast.
For tonight, valley and wind sheltered locations will drop into the upper 40s with low-to-mid 50s elsewhere. Low clouds are forecast to return tonight and more so into Saturday morning in the North Bay, Bay Area, and into the Monterey Bay region as a shallow marine layer remains in place. Offshore flow will increase slightly in the higher terrain overnight, further drying out conditions. However, recent rainfall and generally weak north/northeast winds will limit fire weather concerns.
Warmer conditions are forecast for Saturday as mid/upper level high pressure builds in from the southwest. Thus, temperatures are forecast to be 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.
..issued at 112 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
The warmer and drier conditions are forecast for both Sunday and Monday as the ridge shift eastward and becomes positioned over the Bay Area and Central Coast. Thus, temperatures both days with be 5- 15 degrees above normal for this time of year with mid 70s to mid 80s across the interior, with the Bay Shoreline and the Santa Cruz region reaching into the low 70s to low 80s, with mid-to-upper 60s near the coast. Again, thermal belts will remain active through early Tuesday morning resulting in mild overnight lows and breezy offshore winds in the higher terrain.
From the previous forecaster: "Monday night into Tuesday will mark the start of the ridge eroding, allowing a deep upper level low to form in the east Pacific and impact the West Coast beginning Wednesday. All model guidance generally agrees that the rain should start light in the North Bay before spreading southward with increasing coverage and intensity. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact impacts of this system, and in particular, ensemble model cluster analysis is beginning to note a significant strand of model guidance that keeps rain chances around through Saturday the 15th. However, most model and Atmospheric River guidance continues to lean towards the beneficial side of the impacts to our region."
(06z TAFS) Issued at 918 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025
The forecast has trended more favorable with less chance for low ceilings reaching most terminals early Saturday morning. The exceptions are STS, APC, and HAF, which will be dealing with periods of LIFR ceilings and fog through the morning hours. There is still a slight chance for the other terminals to join the party, but the probability is decreasing quickly as the offshore flow becomes established and the lower atmosphere begins to dry out.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions are now expected to persist through the TAF period. There is still a 20% chance of ceilings developing around sunrise, but most impacts should be confined over the Bay without reaching the terminals. Winds will remain light and swirly at times through the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach, Despite the improving TAF, there is still a 50-60% chance for ceilings to form over the Bay and impact the approach Saturday morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals, The forecast has cleared up for these terminals as well as weak offshore flow begins. Weak drainage flow tonight will flip to a gentle onshore breeze Saturday afternoon.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 918 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025
Rough seas will gradually diminish to moderate by Saturday with more favorable conditions expected this weekend and into the first half of next week. The next storm will bring a fresh southerly breeze and rough seas to the coastal waters by Thursday.
Issued at 1048 AM PST Thu Nov 7 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will persist through Saturday for all coastal beaches. Expect an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents as well as breaking waves up to 25 feet. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure, and never turn your back on the ocean! The increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents will linger Friday through early Saturday morning with westerly swell quickly rebuilding.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
