Issued at 916 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
Showers and isolated thunderstorms that moved through Napa and Contra County this afternoon and early evening have come to an end with some locations like Brentwood receiving 0.40" and some higher spots in Napa County getting around 0.25". Otherwise we'll continue to remain on the backside of the upper level low that will primarily stall through tonight and tomorrow. We will see a notable easing in winds through the remainder of tonight into Wednesday along the coast and the interior.
, Issued at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026 (This evening through Wednesday)
Cool conditions are forecast to prevail today in wake of the early morning frontal passage. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be in the middle-to-upper 50s to middle 60s near the coast with middle 60s to lower 70s across the interior with amble amount of sunshine. Speak of sunshine, there is also a chance of rain showers over Napa County through this evening as the forecast calls for generally 150-250 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Some of these rain showers (if they develop) may move across the interior East Bay this evening before the loss of daytime heating reduces the instability aloft. It will also remain breezy through the evening and into tonight, especially near the coast and in the higher terrain across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Onshore winds will continue with gusts of 30-40 mph with isolated gusts up to 50 mph across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills.
As the cut-off low pressure lingers over northern (today) and central (tomorrow through Thursday), we are forecasting unsettled weather conditions to prevail. However, wind speeds are forecast to diminish slightly. With similar conditions expected on Wednesday, the greatest potential to see more than 0.10" (15-25% probability) will be across the interior Bay Area and Monterey/San Benito County. There is also a chance of thunderstorms, yet they largely remain less than 15%.
..issued at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)
On Thursday, there is a greater potential for rain showers across the region with the mid/upper level cut-off low forecast to be just off of the Bay Area/Central Coast coastline. Thus, PWAT values are forecast to be around 1.00". However, the thunderstorm potential will be less as the atmosphere becomes more stable. The NBM probabilities of seeing greater than 0.25" remain around 10-25% from 11 PM Wednesday night - 11 PM Thursday morning. That said, the probabilities from the convective-allowing ensemble guidance is greater than 50% of reaching or exceeding 0.25" across places outside of the North Bay. All that said, looking like a wide range of possibilities with varying outcomes as far as rainfall amounts go, yet widespread flooding concerns remains very low. Just expect wet roadways across the region during periods of rainfall.
The low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather early this week will finally shift eastward with a shortwave ridge building in to the Bay Area/Central Coast. However, more zonal flow will bring a slight warming and drying trend to the region and is forecast to prevail into early next week.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
Primarily VFR conditions tonight outside of coastal areas. Guidance suggests some potential for MVFR CIGs to impact interior Bay Area airports tonight but confidence is on the lower end. High resolution guidance shows RH values around 80-90% in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This supports at least few to scattered low level clouds but not confident on BKN/OVC conditions. LAMP guidance shows a low chance for MVFR CIGs and leans towards keeping into sites VFR overnight. Winds are easing across the region but will remain locally gusty overnight. The SFO-WMC gradient will be weaker on Wednesday than it was on Tuesday but it will still be around -10 to - 12 mb at its afternoon peak. This supports another round of gusty winds tomorrow although gusts peak around 20-25 knots instead of 30- 35 knots today. Widespread showers return towards the end of this TAF period and continue into the rest of tomorrow night.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Not anticipating low clouds to develop at SFO tonight with CIGs staying above 3000 ft. Gusty westerly winds will diminish overnight before another round of breezy winds tomorrow afternoon/evening. Tomorrow's winds will be weaker with gusts peaking around 25 knots. Scattered showers approach SFO after 06Z tomorrow with shower chances increasing further around 12Z.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR CIGs continue through 17/19Z with VFR the rest of the day. Westerly winds are diminishing at MRY and SNS with winds to ease further overnight. Winds restrengthen during the afternoon/evening when gusts to around 20 knots are expected. Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of MRY tonight with shower chances becoming more widespread (impacting both MRY and SNS) tomorrow night.
(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 916 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
Fresh to strong northwest winds continue tonight with winds gradually diminishing across the inner waters heading into tomorrow. Occasional near gale to gale force gusts are possible across the far outer waters through Wednesday afternoon. Rough seas continue with wave heights between 12 to 16 feet through Thursday.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
