Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1239 pm PDT Mon jul 6 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night)

The marine layer was slightly deeper overnight which resulted in further inland extent into the valleys this morning. However, visible satellite imagery is showing gradual clearing back to the coast as of early this afternoon. That said, locations along the coast may very well not see the Sun at all today, or maybe just brief breaks in the cloud cover. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool this afternoon.

For tonight and into Tuesday morning, expecting coastal stratus to return back into the inland valleys. Once the low clouds retreat to the coast by Tuesday afternoon, expect slightly warmer temperatures compared to previous days.

Long Term

..issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)

A gradual warming trend will begin Wednesday, yet temperatures will still be a few degrees below seasonal averages. As high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest and southern California, temperatures will warm to near seasonal averages and potentially slightly above. That said, only expecting Minor HeatRisk with isolated pockets of Moderate in the warmest interior spots on Thursday. All in all, a typical summer time pattern with stratus keeping conditions cooler near the coast while the interior warms up.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Stratus is dissipating across the interior Bay Area but is expected to linger directly along the coastline. Moderate confidence that ceilings will be slightly lower tonight given high pressure building in to the region. Guidance shows a low to moderate chance of IFR CIGs developing at OAK and SFO overnight with slightly higher chances directly along the coast and in the North Bay Valleys. For APC, maintained a more persistence forecast and kept borderline MVFR- IFR CIGs overnight. Winds generally stay onshore with breezy afternoon winds between 10 to 15 knots expected.

Vicinity of SFO, Satellite shows overcast conditions clearing out across the San Francisco Bay/SFO. Maintained a tempo through 19Z for MVFR conditions as stratus clears but this may need to be extended if stratus does not clear as fast as originally thought. Expect an early return of stratus this evening with highest confidence in MVFR CIGs and low to moderate confidence that IFR CIGs will develop early tomorrow morning. Breezy onshore winds between 10 to 15 knots are expected during the afternoon/evening today.

SFO Bridge Approach, Stratus is starting to clear across the southern SF Bay but remains patchy in the vicinity of SFO. Stratus will continue to clear through the remainder of the morning with VFR expected this afternoon before stratus returns this evening/overnight. Otherwise, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Satellite shows clearing stratus within the Salinas Valley while it persists along the coastline. Ceilings return early this evening, starting out as MVFR before lowering to IFR overnight, and will continue into tomorrow morning. Not currently seeing any indications that fog will develop but some reductions in visibility (particularly within the Salinas Valley) may be possible. Breezy northwest winds are expected in the Salinas Valley with winds peaking around 15 knots this afternoon/evening.

Marine

(today through Saturday) Issued at 929 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Moderate seas persist with northerly winds gradually strengthening this afternoon into the evening. Strong northwest winds will develop Tuesday and are expected to continue into the weekend. In addition to strong winds, expect building rough waves mixed with a low southwest swell.

Beaches

Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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