Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

323 pm PST Wed Feb 4 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 (This evening through Thursday)

Mostly clear skies prevail throughout the San Francisco Bay Area and Central California Coast this afternoon. A broad, high- amplitude upper-level ridge remains anchored over California today, resulting in these exceptionally pleasant February conditions. 12 PM PST temperatures are generally near to several degrees above where they were compared to yesterday. Afternoon maximums will land in mid-60s to upper-70s region-wide, equating to around 7-15 degrees above normal for this date. Some locations will be close to daily record highs for the day; please refer to the Climate section of the discussion for more information.

Upper-level ridge begins to nudge inland more on Thursday as a weak low approaches the Baja California coast. For our area, expect only minor day-to-day changes with temperature and sky cover for tomorrow. Expect another potential foggy start to the

Long Term

Long Term

..issued at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Weak upper-level low approaches the southern California Coast on Friday. This will mark the beginning of a gradually cooling trend for the Bay Area and Central Coast as geopotential heights scale back. Brief ridging will return to northern California on Saturday before the pattern change unfolds for the second half of the weekend. Longwave trough in the eastern Pacific will progress towards the West Coast during the day on Sunday and into Monday. This will result in increased precipitation chances for the region beginning mid-day Sunday for the North Bay and late afternoon/evening south of the Golden Gate. Right now, total precipitation amounts appear to be light. In fact, the latest forecast package actually decreases totals for the entire region. Some breezy winds are expected to accompany this system, but still remaining low impact overall.

..Issued at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Weak upper-level low approaches the southern California Coast on Friday. This will mark the beginning of a gradually cooling trend for the Bay Area and Central Coast as geopotential heights scale back. Brief ridging will return to northern California on Saturday before the pattern change unfolds for the second half of the weekend. Longwave trough in the eastern Pacific will progress towards the West Coast during the day on Sunday and into Monday. This will result in increased precipitation chances for the region beginning mid-day Sunday for the North Bay and late afternoon/evening south of the Golden Gate. Right now, total precipitation amounts appear to be light. In fact, the latest forecast package actually decreases totals for the entire region. Some breezy winds are expected to accompany this system, but still remaining low impact overall.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 322 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the region through the daytime hours. Overnight, Tule Fog will redevelop into the far interior East Bay, with some chances for expansion to APC early Thursday morning. Radiational fog and mist could also develop at STS in the early morning hours, although timing is uncertain. Past experience has shown that this type of fog can be hard to handle and could show up as a thin layer of fog at the surface. High resolution models are also trying to develop some stratus near SJC, but confidence is very low and the TAF remains clear. Winds will be generally offshore across the region, with gusty conditions possible in the interior and near mountain ridges, while a light to gentle onshore push develops across the coastal regions this afternoon and again on Thursday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be light to gentle, with an onshore push developing on Thursday afternoon, otherwise remaining generally offshore.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the TAF period. Light onshore flow will develop through the afternoon, with drainage winds developing overnight, becoming gusty at SNS. Onshore flow resumes Thursday afternoon.

Marine

(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 322 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026

Light easterly winds today will turn southerly by Thursday as high pressure shifts eastward. Seas will remain small tonight into Thursday then rapidly build Thursday night through Saturday. Winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front dropping down from the Pacific Northwest.

Beaches

Issued at 319 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 12 AM PST Thursday to 9 PM PST Saturday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet.

Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from midnight PST tonight through late Thursday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ, None.

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