Issued at 842 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025
After a few active evenings weather wise, tonight is a tad more mellow with lighter winds and a few high clouds passing overhead. Why the change? High pressure nosing in from the west and northwest is leading this change in the sensible weather. Temperatures along the coast were similar to the last few days, but once you moved away from any marine influence temperatures climbed into the 70s and near 80 degrees. While these temperatures are still below seasonable averages they were still 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday.
For the rest of tonight - a marine layer will form again, but it won't be like a June Gloom marine layer covering the coast and inland valleys. Coverage for Thursday morning will likely be patchy along the coast and locally inland.
As noted below pretty quiet weather through the short term.
Here a few weather impacts will be focusing on the next seven days and beyond
--Subtle warming trend to finish the work week --Much stronger northerly winds kicks in for the weekend. Wind advisories may be needed Saturday into Sunday with the strongest winds over the coastal waters, coastal areas, and higher peaks. --burst of northerly/offshore flow Sunday night in Monday --Solid warm up the middle of next week with far interior locations hitting moderate HeatRisk --8 to 14 CPC shows a warming and drying trend --CPC highlights portions of CA with a slight and moderate risk for Excessive Heat May 22 through May 28
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Issued at 1229 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025
Gradual warming trend into Friday before a slight cooldown over the weekend. Gusty winds will develop late Friday into Sunday. Warming trend resumes early next week.
, (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1229 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025
An upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific extends itself over the West Coast, resulting in benign weather for the next couple of days. Satellite imagery shows thin high clouds entering the North Bay, lingering stratus at the immediate coast of the San Mateo Peninsula, and fair weather cumulus popping up in the eastern Santa Clara Hills and the mountains of interior Monterey and San Benito Counties. Overall conditions remain dry and seasonably warm throughout the region with highs ranging from the lower to middle 70s inland and the middle 60s to lower 70s along the Bayshore, while onshore flow keeps the coastal regions cool with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Inland temperatures warm slightly tomorrow with the interior valleys reaching the middle 70s to the lower 80s, but otherwise the forecast is similar to today's weather with coastal stratus south of the Golden Gate that moves down the Salinas Valley and into the Morgan Hill-Hollister area.
..(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1229 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025
Seasonably warm conditions continue on Friday with the inland valleys remaining near the middle 70s to lower 80s, while the Bayshore sees highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs along the coastal regions remain relatively constant and cool, owing to the sea breeze influence.
Later on Friday through Saturday, an upper level trough will develop off the Pacific Northwest and deepen into a cutoff low in the Great Basin, causing a dip in temperatures for the upcoming weekend. Saturday's high temperatures will dip by around 10 degrees in the interior valleys, to around the middle 60s to lower 70s, while the Bayshore drops into the lower to middle 60s. Although the cutoff low will continue to move eastwards, leaving a classic "inside slider" scenario less likely, the pressure gradient between the cutoff low and a ridge in the eastern Pacific will still result in gusty winds across the region later on Friday into Sunday. The current forecast continues to show wind gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph across the region with gusts up to 45 mph possible at the ridgelines, along the coast, and through favored gaps and passes.
Warming temperature will return for the early part of next week with high temperatures rising to the lower 80s to lower 90s inland, or around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. On the backside of the cutoff low, northerly winds could develop in the interior regions, especially in Napa County and the interior East Bay, helping to reinforce the warmer and drier conditions in those areas.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 455 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025
Satellite shows patchy stratus developing along the Monterey Bay Shoreline and high level clouds building in over the Bay Area. The marine layer is expected to compress overnight which will help to limit stratus to coastal airports and along the Bay Shoreline tonight. MVFR-IFR CIGs will filter in to HAF, MRY, SNS, and OAK overnight with highest confidence in IFR CIGs at HAF and MRY. Elsewhere, patchy low level clouds may develop but confidence is low that a BKN/OVC layer will develop. Low confidence that fog/stratus will reach STS and APC overnight but probabilistic guidance indicates some potential for lowered VIS/CIGs to develop between 12Z- 16Z tomorrow morning. Onshore winds will ease and shift offshore through the overnight hours before moderate onshore winds, between 10-15 knots for most sites, returns during the day tomorrow.
Vicinity of SFO, CIGs look to stay VFR through the TAF period but NBM guidance suggests a period of MVFR CIGs are possible in the 09Z- 18Z timeframe. High resolution HRRR guidance keeps stratus on the eastern side of the bay (reaching OAK) but does not show it filling in over the SF Bay. Currently leaning more towards HRRR guidance with low confidence that CIGs will fill in over the SF Bay tonight. Breezy northwest winds will ease overnight before strengthening again tomorrow afternoon through the end of the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus is building in along the Monterey Bay coastline so bumped up stratus arrival at MRY by an hour. Low to moderate confidence that stratus will reach MRY prior to 02Z due to the offshore stratus bank starting to intrude inland. CIGs generally remain MVFR at SNS tonight but will drop into the IFR category at MRY late tonight through early tomorrow morning. CIGs look to improve mid to late morning with VFR conditions expected through the end of the TAF period. Moderate onshore winds will ease overnight before moderate northwest winds (10-15 kt) return tomorrow afternoon.
(today through Monday) Issued at 835 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025
Strong, gale force northwesterly winds continue across the outer coastal waters while fresh to strong northwesterly winds continue across the inner coastal waters. Moderate seas bringing steep, fresh swell will continue through Saturday with significant wave heights between 10 to 12 feet expected across the outer waters. Sunday into next week, gale force to near gale force winds will become more widespread over the coastal waters and seas will become rough. Hazardous conditions will continue through the end of the forecast period.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
