Issued at 416 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025
Main frontal band continues to move through the East Bay, South Bay, and Monterey Bay regions. Several reports of roadway flooding have been received from across the region. All wind products have been extended through 8 AM today, with high confidence of new wind products issued for tonight and Thursday afterward. Otherwise forecast remains the same. Operations team continues to be in warning operations.
DialH
, Issued at 208 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025 (Today and tonight)
The strong winds, offshore thunderstorms, and scattered reports of flooding through the night so far can all be traced to a cyclonic system off the North Coast, moving parallel to the West Coast as it crosses into the waters off Oregon. The associated frontal band is moving across the coastal waters, with thunderstorms along the narrow cold-frontal rain band prompting the issuance of Special Marine Warnings. On land, the strongest gusts reported so far tonight were 95 mph at the Pine Mountain Fire Road PG&E station in the highlands of marin County, 93 mph at the Lone Tree Towers PG&E station in the very northeastern corner of San Benito County, and 89 mph at the Oak Ridge RAWS in northwestern Sonoma County. The strong winds will continue through the next few hours with the winds decreasing rapidly once the front moves through the region. A High Wind Warning is out for the coastal regions, and a Wind Advisory for the interior, until 4 AM this morning.
There is also a slight, but non-zero, chance for severe thunderstorms across much of the region today, with the SPC outlook showing a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the coastal region and inland into the Salinas Valley, the area towards the west of the Diablo Range, and the Sonoma County valleys. The severe weather chances remain elevated through the pre-dawn hours this morning as strong ascent and a robust coastal jet will enable severe winds to mix to the surface within the strongest convection, resulting in damaging wind gusts. In addition, the special 6Z sounding from Oakland does show a little bit of directional shear near the surface, meaning that any cell able to tap into this helicity could spin up a brief tornado.
Finally, the system continues to bring chances for heavy rainfall, generally within the convective cells that develop through the morning hours. The Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday, but the outlook has transitioned from a multi-day period of steady, intense rain resulting in river flooding concerns, to an elevated risk of flash flooding across the region.
As the front moves through the region, the rain should diminish, winds should die down, and the chances for convection decrease for the rest of the day. This might be a good time to take stock and make any quick repairs or other necessary actions. Emphasis on the word "quick" though. Behind this system, another low pressure system will develop in the eastern Pacific and approach the West Coast. This will bring us a second round of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and convective chances for tonight through Thursday morning. It's likely that a new set of High Wind products will be issued for this coming storm period once the products currently in effect expire.
In a mostly academic concern, high temperatures today will range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s across the lower elevations, into the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the higher elevations.
..issued at 208 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025 (Thursday through Tuesday)
Strong winds and periods of heavy rain will persist into Thursday (Christmas Day) and Friday as the low pressure system meanders off the North Coast, and the Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms continues for the Central Coast through the day, with severe wind gusts and brief tornadoes being the main threats. The extended period of more moderate and heavy rain across the region will result in increased flooding concerns, especially within urban areas with rises in small creeks and streams and mainstem rivers likely, particularly within the North Bay where more antecedent rainfall has fallen. The return of the strong winds coupled with the more saturated soils will also increase the risk for additional power outages and downed trees into Friday. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings through Friday in case severe thunderstorms develop. This is especially important as the increased risk for power outages could mean that some communication systems could be impacted, especially in rural and remote regions.
Later on Friday, the low pressure system will degrade into a trough as it approaches the California coast, with lingering showers continuing into Saturday morning. Behind the parade of systems, cold temperatures will develop for the weekend into the early part of next week, with low temperatures dropping into the middle to upper 30s across the inland valleys. Meanwhile, the storm door remains open with long range guidance suggesting the potential for additional systems through the early portion of January.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 941 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025
A favorable weather window exists today in between 2 very intense wind storms. The initial front has moved through allowing winds to decrease significantly through the morning. In fact, the cloud shield will also clear out over the next few hours, bringing some sunshine and VFR conditions across the terminals this afternoon. The break won't last long, however, as a second rapidly deepening low pressure system moves up the coast. This will cause southerly winds to re-intensify overnight, reaching very similar speeds as last night. The difference is that the winds will linger longer into Thursday as the low stalls offshore rather than moving inland. High resolution guidance is also hinting at 2 distinct bands of precipitation overnight associated with the passage of the warm and cold fronts. Both of these bring a chance for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. Scattered showers could persist in the cold air mass into Friday as the winds gradually ease.
Vicinity of SFO..Fortunately the timing of the light winds and clearing skies lines up with the busy midday period at SFO, and the west plan should hold until at least 00Z before the stronger southerly winds return. The exact timing of this in a little uncertain. The 925 mb winds ramp up around 00Z, and the increasing sunshine may help mix them down to the surface. The TAF is a little more optimistic, suggesting it will take a couple hours before the terminal sees southerlies increase over 10 kts. After they do, conditions will gradually deteriorate through the evening with another round of very strong winds, showers, and possible thunderstorms overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Surface winds are surprisingly northerly at both MRY and SNS, but that will surely flip back to southerly over the next 3 hours as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the wind storm tonight. Before the storm gets here, there is a favorable weather window through the daylight hours with moderate wind and VFR conditions. As the Sun goes down winds will gradually ramp up and scattered, but persistent, showers will move through from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some of these showers will be strong, with a decent chance for thunderstorms at both MRY and SNS in the early morning hours.
(today through Monday) Issued at 941 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025
, HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY, After an intense wind storm overnight, winds have eased to a moderate SE breeze across the coastal waters, but will gradually re-intensify to sustained gales from the south by midnight. These dangerous winds will be accompanied by a good chance for thunderstorms and possible waterspouts through the early morning hours Thursday. Seas will rebuild to very rough from the choppy wind waves. These hazardous seas will linger through Friday, reinforced by a moderate westerly swell. If your vessel is not able to handle these conditions return to port or seek protected waters as soon as possible.
Issued at 355 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025
The strong winds along the coast will result in hazardous beach conditions. A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for the coast through 4AM Friday. The main concerns include:blowing and drifting sand and wind waves up to 20 ft. The drifting sand and increased sea spray will also result in poor visibilities, affecting water rescues. Increased coastal erosion will be possible as well.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Flood Watch through Friday evening for CAZ006-502>506-508>510- 512>518-528>530.
High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ006-503-505-509-517-528>530.
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ502-504-506-508-510-512>516-518.
PZ, Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
