Issued at 856 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
Forecast remains on track tonight, but what a difference 24hrs makes. We do still have some scattered light showers drifting south across our area, especially over the water. Despite the drier conditions tomorrow and Wednesday, temperatures will continue to be below normal. Tuesday will be mostly sunny, but on Wednesday we'll see cloud cover gradually increase as the next system makes its way south toward our area. This next storm will not carry the same punch that we saw last night. The weekend looks mostly dry, with deterministic guidance backing off the potential for another round of rain for the beginning of next week.
, Issued at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025 (This evening through Tuesday)
Isolated to scattered rain showers persist over the region this afternoon with thunderstorms showing up to our east. A surface low pressure is currently positioned over the North Bay with a mid/upper level aloft. This will result in increased instability with surface based and most unstable CAPE forecast to be up to 500 J/kg through the afternoon. Any heavier rain showers and/or thunderstorms will be capable of producing 0.25"-0.50" of rainfall per hour, yet these rates will be isolated in nature. Conditions begin to dry out by late tonight and more so into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will generally be in the low-to-upper 40s across the coldest spots across the region with upper 40s to lower 50s along the San Francisco Bay Shoreline and the City of San Francisco.
This drying trend will occur as the aforementioned surface and mid/upper level lows shift southward through the day on Tuesday. A short-wave ridge will build across the Bay Area and Central Coast through Tuesday with temperatures warming to near normal across the Bay Area and North Bay while up to 10 degrees cooler than normal across the Central Coast. Mostly sunny sky conditions are expected beyond the morning hours on Tuesday.
..issued at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Light to occasionally moderate rain returns late Wednesday night across the North Bay and then increase in coverage and intensity through Thursday early afternoon across of the remainder of the Bay Area and Central Coast. This system is forecast to move through rather quickly producing 0.50"-1.00" in the coastal ranges and higher elevations across the region, 0.25"-0.33" in the North Bay Valleys and around San Francisco, and generally less than 0.25" elsewhere. However, as things become increasingly saturated, the risk for shallow land/rock/mud slides will also increase.
Friday through the rest of the upcoming weekend look to be dry with temperatures rebounding closer to seasonal averages. This is captured by the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center showing conditions leaning below normal for precipitation and near normal temperatures.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 838 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals. Rain showers will follow the path of the surface low, sliding south and east through tomorrow morning. As such, high-end MVFR/low-end VFR with rain showers in the vicinity can be expected through the night. Winds will decrease and veer through the night as the effect of the surface low wanes. Order is restored tomorrow in the form of dry conditions and diurnal wind patterns.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently MVFR with westerly flow. Low-end VFR/high-end MVFR with westerly flow and rain showers in the vicinity will prevail for the next couple of hours. As the surface low exits to the southeast, rain shower activity will wane and winds will decrease and back. Diurnal winds return tomorrow afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY and VFR with southwesterly flow at SNS. Low-end VFR/high-end MVFR with westerly flow and rain showers in the vicinity will prevail through the night. Winds will decrease and back through the night with diurnal winds returning tomorrow afternoon.
(tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 838 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
A chance for rain showers will continue through the night. While conditions will slowly begin to improve, rough seas and strong northerly breezes will persist through Tuesday, especially for the outer waters. Conditions briefly become non-hazardous Wednesday. Fresh to strong northerly breezes and rough to very rough seas return Thursday and persist into Friday.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
