Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

425 pm PST Thu Nov 27 2025

Short Term

, Issued at 1235 PM PST Thu Nov 27 2025 (This evening through Friday)

~gobble gobble~

Sun for most and really frustrating stratus and Tule fog for a few others. Forecast today remains mostly on track, except temperatures in the North Bay and inland East Bay where I've lowered high temps to account for the lingering fog and stratus. Notable places like Santa Rosa, Napa, and Livermore have barely broken 50 degrees as of 1-2pm. This pattern is likely to persist into tomorrow.

Long Term

..issued at 1235 PM PST Thu Nov 27 2025 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

The persistence forecast is a good bet for the next few days as a very high amplitude ridge builds into the Gulf of Alaska and promotes downstream troughing into the continental US. This pattern results in light offshore flow for our region, which will mostly keep temps mild and skies mostly dry. On that note, there is no precipitation in our forecast through the next seven days.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 425 PM PST Thu Nov 27 2025

Currently VFR with potential for fog and stratus to return tonight. Moderate to high confidence in stratus reaching STS, APC, and LVK tonight with some potential for lowered visibilities and ceiling heights throughout the rest of the Bay Area. The marine layer looks to deepen to around 1200 ft tonight which may bring in some stratus coverage along the coastline. Highest confidence that stratus will reach HAF but some may reach MRY early tomorrow morning as well. Winds generally stay light and offshore overnight before becoming light and onshore during the day tomorrow.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the rest of the evening. Given the current fog/stratus setup, continued to lean towards a persistence forecast with MVFR-IFR conditions developing at least temporarily tomorrow morning.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Some potential for MVFR CIGs at MRY early tomorrow morning as stratus returns along the coast. Confidence is too low to include in TAFs with models keeping the stratus directly along the coastline/away from the airport.

Marine

(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 425 PM PST Thu Nov 27 2025

Moderate to fresh northerly winds through Friday as a weak front moves through the northern waters. Winds will be strongest south of Point Pinos tonight. Winds will decrease Saturday before increasing again early Sunday. Occasional squared seas will lead to hazardous conditions over the outer waters through Friday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

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