, Issued at 422 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026 (This evening through Friday)
Scattered showers continue through this evening across the region before the next storm system arrives tonight. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will return tonight as our third system approaches. Rain intensity will pick up overnight with the heaviest precipitation expected between 3AM to 7AM Thursday morning. Frontal passage will occur between 4AM to 10AM (likely closer to 4AM-6AM period) with high resolution guidance showing a squall line moving through the Southern San Mateo Peninsula into the South Bay and Central Coast. This is supported by a strong 925 mb low level jet with a jet max near 70 knots (80 mph) moving into the Monterey Bay. This jet max is consistent across several high resolution models (NAM, RRFS, HRRR) and would support strong but short-lived gusts directly along the coastline. Highest confidence in widespread gusts between 30 to 40 mph with locally stronger gusts between 45 to 50 mph directly along the coastline and across the higher elevations possible. Portions of the Big Sur Coastline and where terrain promotes wind funneling (low probability Salinas Valley, Golden Gate Gap) may see gusts in excess of 50 mph. Short-lived gusts in excess of 50 mph are likely as the squall line moves through with winds to drop after frontal passage occurs. Forecast soundings show low level 0-1 km wind shear between 20 to 25 knots and 0-3 km wind shear in excess of 40 knots (particularly along the Big Sur Coast). High resolution guidance shows decent MUCAPE (100-450 J/KG) in the marine environment offshore of Santa Cruz down through Monterey County. The combination of strong low level shear and decent MUCAPE will result in a High Shear Low CAPE setup early tomorrow morning. Embedded rotation is possible within the squall line, particularly offshore over the marine environment, with the potential to impact coastal areas as the squall line moves ashore. Currently the SPC has a general mention of thunderstorms in effect for Thursday across our entire CWA. In addition, accumulating small hail is possible as the squall line moves through due to the cold airmass (850mb temperatures are below freezing across much of the CWA around the time of frontal passage). There is the potential for locally heavy downpours as the squall line moves onshore which may result in flooding particularly within coastal areas. Early morning commuters on the Central Coast be aware - this system will arrive around the time of the morning commute. Check the weather before you leave, allow extra time to reach your destination, and go slow. It would be advisable to avoid driving as this squall line moves ashore.
Rain chances and wind speeds diminish by late morning after frontal passage occurs. Widespread showers will become more scattered in nature (similar to today) by late morning/afternoon. High temperatures will not be particularly warm on Thursday with most locations staying in the upper 40s to low 50s. Across the higher elevations temperatures may not get out of the upper 30s to low 40s. As cloud cover dissipates late Thursday, overnight temperatures Thursday into Friday will drop rapidly into the upper 20s to low 30s across the region. A combination of Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings will be needed Friday morning.
..issued at 422 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)
Conditions briefly dry out on Friday as we get a break between systems but this will be short lived as another upper level trough and system arrives Saturday into Sunday. High temperatures on Friday will still be chilly in the low to mid 50s but if you need to make any outdoor preparations before the rain returns this is your chance. Rain returns Saturday with light rain spreading across the region during the afternoon/evening. Saturday night into Sunday will see the return of widespread moderate to at times heavy rain. The heaviest rain is expected Sunday and Monday as a possible atmospheric river develops. While the previous system (this week) originated from the Gulf of Alaska, this upcoming system has a more tropical moisture source with PWAT values in excess of an inch. While the heaviest rain is Sunday and Monday, light to at times moderate rain will continue through the rest of the week. From Saturday to next Wednesday - we are looking at an additional 4-6" across the North Bay Mountains, 3-5" across the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range, and 1-3" across the lower elevations. A return of strong winds is expected late Saturday night into early next week. Temperatures will warm next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region starting Monday. Morning low temperatures rise into the upper 40s to 50s by Monday morning. This is an active period of weather. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings this week and stay up to date on the weather
(00z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026
Spotty light to moderate showers are moving through the area, but shower activity is expected to reduce into the night. Mostly mid- level clouds are moving through the area, but these showers could offer short-lived MVFR CIGs. Winds stay westerly for most of the region into the evening but some areas look to turn more northerly overnight as winds reduce. Shower activity increases into Thursday morning with widespread rain and stronger winds arriving along a front. Gusts will approach 30 kts and above for most areas along the front and rain rates will reduce visibilities. Expect winds to turn westerly to northwesterly in the wake of the front. Storm chances will build in the post frontal environment and last into the afternoon. Rain chances reduce that evening, but showers linger into that night.
Vicinity of SFO, Shower activity continues with mostly mid-level clouds. Winds turn southwest overnight and reduce, but become southeasterly and breezy later into the night. The next band of moderate to heavy rain arrives int he late night bringing strong gusts above 30 kts form the southeast that will turn westerly as the band moves through. Shower activity reduces behind the rain band, but thunderstorms will be possible. Winds remain strong into the afternoon but will reduce as showers become more scattered.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Spotty showers last through the night with moderate winds turning southerly. The next rain band arrives into the late night and early morning with stronger winds building ahead of it. Gusts will peak above 30 kts and rain rates will reduce visibilities. Winds reduce slightly behind the rain band, but shower activity will continue through the afternoon. Chances for storms will increase behind the rain band, especially in the bay itself and along the Big Sur coast.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 521 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026
Light showers continue to move through the waters with moderate to breezy winds. Winds quickly become strong in the late night with widespread gale force gusts returning as moderate to heavy rains move through the waters. Chances for thunderstorms increase through the early morning on Thursday, but these chances reduce that afternoon. Rough to very rough seas will prevail through the week. Rain chances in general exit early Friday, but the next system begins to arrive Saturday afternoon.
Ca, High Surf Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530.
PZ, Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Thursday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
