, Issued at 134 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 (This evening through Tuesday)
Another quiet day across the region, yet up to 10 degrees cooler across the interior as widespread onshore flow has returned ahead of our approaching frontal system set to move across the region on Wednesday. Mostly sunny sky conditions are forecast this afternoon with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s across the interior (approaching 80 degrees F in the warmest inland spots across interior Central Coast). Near the coast, temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s to 60s.
Low clouds are forecast to return late tonight and into Tuesday morning as the marine layer deepens. Cloud cover will retreat to the coast across the Central Coast while lingering over the North Bay. This will be as a cold front approaches the region and potentially brings rain to far northern Sonoma and Napa counties early Tuesday morning. This rain will be mostly driven by orographic lift over the higher terrain of the North Bay. How much rain we see out of this will be an important factor with regards to whether or not we experience any localized flooding across this region.
Tuesday will be a transition day before the aforementioned cold front moves across the region Wednesday.
..issued at 134 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Tuesday night is when winds are really forecast to pick up in strength as a surface low moves into the Pacific Northwest. As such, we have a Wind Advisory in place from 11 PM Tuesday through 4 PM Wednesday. This is in effect for the North Bay, East Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz Mtns. We are expecting southerly winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph in the the valleys with isolated gusts to 55 mph possible along North Bay coastal areas and ridgetops Wednesday morning as the cold front passes through. Wind gusts may exceed 60 mph in the region's higher peaks.
Rainfall totals look mostly beneficial outside of localized nuisance flooding across the North Bay, especially depending on how much warm sector rain falls across this region. The heaviest rainfall will be across the North Bay where we could see between 1.50"-2.50" in the coastal ranges and higher elevations of the North Bay and 0.75"- 2.00" in the North Bay Valleys (highest in places such as Cloverdale) by Wednesday night. Between 0.50"-1.00" in the City of San Francisco and the coastal ranges of San Mateo and the Santa Cruz Mountains. The Santa Lucia Range can expect between 0.25"-0.75". As one heads southward and inland, generally between 0.10"-0.50" can be expected across the Santa Clara Valley and across Monterey and San Benito counties.
There is also about a 20% chance of thunderstorms as the main frontal boundary moves through the North Bay (early Wednesday morning through the afternoon), with less than 10% as one moves southward into the Bay Area.
All this said, the Wednesday morning commute will be windy and wet, especially across the North Bay and Bay Area! So be sure to allow extra time to reach your destination if traveling.
Conditions begin to dry out by Wednesday night and into Thursday. Zonal flow will develop across the Bay Area and Central Coast and persist through late week. The North Bay is where we may see rainfall off and on at times through late week and into the upcoming weekend. However, forecast confidence remains low to moderate in the extended.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 323 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025
Lingering coastal stratus hovers around the northern Monterey Bay and the coast south of Point Sur, both supported by small scale eddies offshore. Mid-level clouds are also streaming into the Sonoma coastal ranges to the northwest of STS. Otherwise, the region remains generally VFR. Breezy onshore winds continue into the evening hours. Overnight, moderate confidence in the ceiling forecasts, as generally IFR-MVFR stratus will return to the coastal areas, with additional MVFR and mid- to high level cloud coverage possible from prefrontal flow across the North Bay and perhaps down to SFO and OAK. This is a complex interaction as the high clouds could interfere with the radiational cooling that would contribute to fog or low stratus, decreasing the confidence in the forecast for stratus formation tonight and dissipation on Tuesday morning. Current best forecast is for the stratus to retreat to the coastal regions through the morning. Southerly winds will increase through Tuesday, although with the strongest winds and best chances for widespread rainfall generally expected after the end of the 24-hour TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the rest of the day. Coastal stratus and prefrontal clouds combine to give the terminal a moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings in the early part of Tuesday morning, dissipating after sunrise. Northwest breezes continue through the rest of the day, turning light overnight before shifting to a more south-southwest flow on Tuesday in advance of the front. Some high resolution models depict chances for MVFR ceilings during the Tuesday evening timeframe, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR with light northwest winds through the evening hours. MVFR-IFR stratus returns tonight with moderate confidence on the time of arrival, gradually dissipating through Tuesday morning. Strong southwest winds will develop at MRY Tuesday afternoon, while confidence is moderate that winds at SNS develop from the northwest.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 203 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025
Moderate southwesterly breezes for areas north of Point Pinos, with moderate northwesterly breezes south of there will continue through tonight. Winds fully shift to the south Tuesday and will increase throughout the period. By late Tuesday and into Wednesday, near- gale force to gale force sustained winds expected. Widespread gale force gusts are expected during this time with isolated storm force gusts possible for the northern most waters. Seas will build to become very rough for the inner waters and outer waters Wednesday and Thursday. Rain showers Tuesday will turn into widespread rainfall and a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday.
Issued at 402 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025
A long period northwesterly swell will continue to bring an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of up to 20 feet to Pacific Coast beaches today. High surf conditions are possible, especially at the west and northwest facing beaches. Remember, sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Swimmers should always swim near a lifeguard. Stay off the rocks, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 3 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512-515.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
