, Issued at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 (This evening through Monday)
We're in between weather systems this afternoon as the upper level low from Saturday pushes east and the next system advances from the west. A cold front will bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain, spreading from north to south tonight. The heaviest rain should occur between midnight and 4AM, which will be accompanied with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms. Any storms that occur may bring with it heavier pockets of rain, gusty and erratic winds, and lightning. Rain chances begin to ease towards the morning though rain will still be occuring during the morning commute before tapering off later in the day. The North Bay Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains look to receive an additional 1-2.5" of rain Sunday night into Monday while the Santa Lucia Range receives an additional 2-3". For the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast, totals will generally range from 0.5-1.25" Sunday night into Monday. With the thunderstorm chances and the potential NCFR tonight, combined with already saturated soils, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1 of 4) has been issued for nearly all portions of the service area. The exception will be for the Santa Lucia where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2 of 4) is forecast. The most likely type of flooding we'll see is nuisance flooding, especially in poor drainage, low laying, or urban areas. If you encounter flooding while driving or encounter a road closure due to flooding, do not attempt to drive through it instead find a different route.
The last impact not covered yet is wind. Winds will slowly ramp up this evening, with a quick burst of stronger winds overnight. Peak wind gusts will generally be around 30-35 mph, with locally higher gusts possible along the immediate coast, the higher elevations, and mountain gaps/passes (Altamont Pass region).
..issued at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 (Monday night through next Saturday)
Brief upper level ridging builds into the region late Monday/early Tuesday and holds through most of Wednesday. This will bring a brief period of cooler and drier weather with high temperatures maxing out in the upper 50s to low 60s in the valleys and the mid 40s to upper 50s for the higher elevations. Overnight lows will be chilly as well, with interior Central Coast temperatures dipping into the 30s, while the rest of the area flirts in the 40s.
Another upper level trough is set to arrive to the west coast, which will bring renewed chances of beneficial rain to the region. Amounts generally look to be about 0.25-0.75" for the North Bay counties, Santa Lucia, and and Santa Cruz mountains. Elsewhere, amounts range from 0.10-0.40".
(06z TAFS) Issued at 915 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals with the cold front beginning to move ashore. Rain showers will increase in coverage and intensity as it does so with a couple/few hours of moderate to heavy rainfall expected at each terminal tonight/tomorrow morning. Southerly winds will continue to strengthen and become gusty ahead of and during the cold frontal passage. Behind the cold front rain showers will remain possible and winds will slowly veer to become onshore. MVFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period with further reductions possible in the heaviest rain. There's also a chance for thunderstorms with this system, but confidence is not high enough in timing and/or location to include in the TAFs at this time.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with southerly flow. Light rain showers will give way to moderate rainfall in the next couple of hours. The heaviest rainfall will be only a few hours long with post- frontal rain showers possible through the morning. Southerly winds will continue to increase up to and through the cold frontal passage, slowly veering to become westerly behind it. There's a general chance for thunderstorms in the area, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR with drainage flow at SNS. Light rain showers will give way to moderate rainfall in the next few hours. Southerly winds will increase ahead of and through the cold frontal passage, slowly veering to become westerly behind it. There's a general chance for thunderstorms in the area, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 915 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
Widespread hazardous marine conditions will prevail through tomorrow night. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected through mid-morning with rain showers expected through the afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible, especially during the cold frontal passage tonight and into tomorrow morning. Southerly winds will increase to become strong and gusty ahead of and through the cold frontal passage with isolated gale force gusts possible. Strong northwesterly winds will develop behind the cold front, slowly beginning to diminish Tuesday. Seas will build tonight to become very rough for the inner waters and outer waters, slowly beginning to abate by Tuesday.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
