, Issued at 1200 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026 (Today and tonight)
Tuesday's weather will be brought to you by a cold front. The associated lift has already done a number on the marine layer, making it too diffuse to support itself. Drizzle/light rain will be possible along and ahead of the cold front, especially along the coast and in the higher terrain with the help of orographic lift. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by clear skies and strong northerly winds. Widespread hazardous conditions for small craft are expected with gale force winds for the inner waters and Monterey Bay. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected with isolated gusts up to 50 mph across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills.
..issued at 1200 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026 (Wednesday through Monday)
The associated upper-level trough will dig into California, becoming a cutoff low Wednesday that is expected to remain near-stationary through Thursday. As such, Wednesday and Thursday will be very similar with below normal temperatures and diurnal winds. Of more interest and potential impact is the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. They will both rely on daytime heating as a trigger with accumulation dependent on where they develop. Chances are low (less than 15%) for thunderstorms with the relatively best chances for the far interior. The question is going to be if lift, instability, and moisture can overlap spatially and temporally. Conditionally unstable lapse rates will yield low CAPE on Wednesday. With PWAT values near average (0.60 inches) then, moisture will likely be the limiting factor. By Thursday, PWAT values increases to near one inch as the low drifts off the coast of the Bay Area; at the same time, the atmosphere begins to restabilize likely making instability the limiting factor for thunderstorms on Thursday. New wildfire starts will be a potential hazard due to fuels being about a month ahead of schedule. The low is expected to fill and become an open wave by Friday, leaving the region under zonal flow. A much warmer and drier airmass arrives over the weekend with upper-level longwave ridging moving in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026
This is the first morning I'm not writing about widespread stratus, but rather a cold front! This system is currently working its way down the Bay Area and into the Central Coast. Coastal and higher elevation drizzle is possible with the passage of this system in addition to brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Behind it, conditions are generally VFR with lingering pockets of MVFR cigs, but more notably are the gusty northwest winds. These will continue to gradually ramp up this morning and then peak during the afternoon and early evening hours. Gusts will generally be between 20-30kt for most TAF sites, though 30-35kt gusts are possible along the immediate coast and at KSFO. Guidance shows the potential for some 40kt gusts along the coast and at KSFO; however, confidence was not high enough to add anything greater than 35kt at this time. Later this evening and into the early overnight hours, winds ease and then fall at or below 10kt. VFR conditions should prevail, though a few models try to bring pockets of stratus back tonight. Low to medium confidence in the low forecast this morning and again later tonight. Medium to high confidence in the wind forecast.
Vicinity of SFO, A cold front passed through earlier this morning bringing a brief period of drizzle and IFR conditions. In its wake, westerly winds have started to pick up while MVFR cigs linger. Cigs should gradually lift/mix out over the next couple of hours, leading to VFR conditions for the late morning and afternoon hours. Onshore winds will hold throughout the day, and increase into the afternoon hours. Sustained speeds look to peak around 25kt this afternoon with gusts up to 35kt between 20-4Z. Winds will then ease through the evening, and then we look at the probability for stratus. Some hi- res models and MOS guidance suggest we could see a period of MVFR cigs tonight. This could arrive as early as 02-6Z or as late as 9Z. Opted to hint at the later start but didn't bring in the cigs at BKN or OVC. Medium to high confidence in the cloud forecast this morning. High confidence in the wind forecast. Low to medium confidence in the low cloud timing for tonight.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, A cold front will pass through the region this morning bringing MVFR and IFR cigs and coastal and mountain drizzle. Once the front passes, onshore flow increases and clouds lift to VFR criteria. The strongest winds look to occur late morning through the early evening. Low clouds look to make a return to the region tonight, somewhere between 3-6Z. Opted to go with the later start and then keep MVFR cigs through the overnight hours.
(today through Sunday) Issued at 247 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026
A cold front continues to pass over the waters this morning leading to fresh west to northwest winds with widespread strong gusts expected over the waters. Winds shift northwesterly and continue to increase today into Wednesday. This results in strong to near gale force winds across the outer waters, gale force winds across the inner waters, and fresh to strong winds across the San Francisco Bay. Rough seas build to between 12 to 15 feet Tuesday into late week.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from 9 AM PDT this morning through Wednesday morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
