, Issued at 129 PM PST Sun Jan 4 2026 (This evening through Monday)
Quite the episode of rain this morning here at NWS MTR. A few areas from the Monterey Peninsula to Hollister reported 1-2 inches of rain this morning with Monterey Airport coming in at 2.15" since midnight. Elsewhere around the Bay Area reports range from about 0.5-1" depending on where you are north to south and in relation to rain shadowing terrain. Some lingering rain showers in the vicinity of the SF Bay are moving out this afternoon, and most people should see the Sun at some point this afternoon/evening.
Moving on to tomorrow, we're anticipating another round of rainfall beginning in the pre-dawn hours for the North Bay and Bay Area, then the Monterey Bay and Central Coast around sunrise. This does seem to be a more progressive line of showers as opposed to the training showers that we had this morning. However, with soils at or near saturation in some areas, flooding concerns will arise easily. We are NOT expecting any widespread, damaging winds with tomorrow's system, but as mentioned regarding the state of the soil, trees will be more likely to fall under lesser magnitude winds than would normally be required. After the main band of morning rainfall, we'll see some scattered showers into the afternoon with a small potential for an isolated thunderstorm over the waters. The showers at this point should be mostly unproblematic outside of one or two isolated strong showers that may exacerbate already existing flooding impacts. In terms of thunderstorms, there is some instability into the afternoon hours which could lead to more vigorous updrafts over the waters, but don't really see the threat really making it very far onto land. To that point, the wind field is nearly uniform up to almost 500 mb, so there will be very little, if any, shear to support persistent updrafts. The primary threat continues to be isolated nuisance flooding and shallow landslides.
..issued at 129 PM PST Sun Jan 4 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
Conditions dry out Monday night giving way to mostly clear skies Tuesday with just a few lingering light showers. Beyond this and through the rest of the week the story turns to cold overnight temperatures and absolutely gorgeous, albeit chilly, afternoons. Ensemble cluster analysis strongly supports broad, high amplitude ridging in the long term. For overnight lows, it looks like the coldest period will be Thursday through Monday mornings with the peak cold being Friday morning (Thursday night) where widespread 30s are likely inland with mid-to-lower 40s along the coast.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1001 AM PST Sun Jan 4 2026
Showers are continuing to move across the Bay Area and Central Coast with largely MVFR conditions expected. Rain rates are light to moderate with localized short periods of heavy rain. Winds are breezy but not as gusty as yesterday with peak winds around 15 knots through this afternoon. Expected CIG heights to rise by late afternoon/early evening before lowering again overnight as another round of rain aims at the Bay Area and Central Coast. Expect visibilities and ceilings to drop below what is listed in the TAF if a particularly strong shower moves over the airport.
Vicinity of SFO, Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds continue through the TAF period. Showers will become more scattered in nature by this afternoon as the main rain band moves further south. A second round of light to moderate rain arrives tonight with conditions staying on the border of MVFR-VFR. Expect temporary drops in visibility and ceiling heights if a stronger shower moves over SFO.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR. The main rain band is training over the Monterey Peninsula with moderate to at times heavy rain continuing through this afternoon. Showers become more scattered this evening before another round of light to moderate rain returns overnight. Confidence is low to moderate that MVFR CIGs will rise above 3000 ft late tonight. It is possible as the second rain band reaches MRY and SNS around 14/15Z that CIGs will lower below 3000 ft again.
(today through Friday) Issued at 1001 AM PST Sun Jan 4 2026
Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms continue today with showers expected to continue through Monday. Winds remain breezy through this evening before strengthening overnight. Hazardous seas between 12 to 16 feet continue for smaller craft before winds and seas diminish early next week. Winds and seas are expected to build again during the late week.
Issued at 117 PM PST Sat Jan 3 2026
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Pacific Coast, and Monterey Bay through 2 PM Sunday due to Perigean spring tides (king tides) and up to 1 foot of storm surge. The combination of these factors will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways during high tide late Sunday morning.
High tide is expected to be 1.9 ft above normal at 11:18 AM Sunday. These predictions include up to 1 foot of storm surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect Sunday through 10 PM. Large swell will impact the Pacific beaches, generating large breaking waves up to 20 feet, strong rip currents, and sneaker waves. Inexperienced swimmers should avoid the water. Nobody should climb the coastal rocks. Never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for CAZ006-506-508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
