Issued at 836 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026
Picturesque satellite image this morning shows an occluded surface low just west of Cape Mendocino. The associated warm sector continues to produce popcorn showers or scout showers ahead of better forcing from the cold front. The region will still be in the warm sector into the afternoon. As such, scattered showers will persist. Some of these showers may produce brief heavy rain. Steadier rain and more widespread rain will accompany the cold front as it grazes our coastline later today and tonight.
We're seeing pressure falls and subsequent tightening of gradients with the surface low. Therefore, an uptick in winds is occuring over the higher terrain and immediate coastline. An impressive gust to 49 mph at Point Reyes with 40-45 mph interior N Bay Mts. Other wind spots are in the 25-35 mph.
No update needed this morning.
, Issued at 410 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026 (Today and tonight)
Satellite imagery this morning shows the area of low pressuring west of California, while a frontal boundary approaches the offshore waters of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Rain showers will continue to taper in, eventually becoming late in the day or early evening hours. Associated with that, will be an uptick in southerly winds throughout the day bringing widespread gusts up to 15-30 mph. The windiest areas will be along the coast and elevated terrain where gusts to 45 mph, perhaps locally higher will be observed. In terms of rainfall amounts for today, the highest amounts will be in the North Bay 0.6-2.5" and around 0.6-1.75" Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia. Elsewhere amounts will range from 0.25-1.0" for the San Francisco Peninsula, and about 0.1-0.5" for the interior Central Coast and East and South Bay counties. The WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall and the potential for flash flooding over much of the Bay Area, should we get moderate to heavy periods of localized rainfall. This would be conducive with the passage of the front and any stronger showers or isolated thunderstorms.
..issued at 410 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026 (Monday through Saturday)
Ensemble and cluster analysis show upper level troughing holding over the region. This will lead to additional storm systems moving through the area, bringing periods of rain and wind. The first round for the work week, will be on Monday as an upper level low swings into the central portion of CA. This will likely occuring in time for the morning commute, creating slick roadways and perhaps ponding on roadways or poor drainage flooding. Rain continues into the early afternoon, before tapering off in the evening. The WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall and the potential for flash flooding from the Gold Gate area southward, clipping Oakland and a good portion of the South Bay. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also painted over the Santa Lucia and Monterey Coast. And in terms of thunder, the SPC now has general thunder over the majority of the region.
Looking at the next system, we'll see see more wind and rain with a new flavor added to the forecast. Colder air. Precipitation will start off as rain, but by late Tuesday into Wednesday there will likely be some transition to all snow for the higher elevations across the region. Rainfall amounts Monday night through Wednesday: 1-1.5" most areas and up to 2-3" Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range. Snow levels from 4000-5000feet to about 2200-4300ft by Tuesday afternoon/evening and then down to 1500-2700ft by Wednesday morning. The lowest levels will be around around the North Bay by Wednesday morning. Snow accumulations for the highest North Bay peaks look to be around an inch or so at this time, and the for the Diablo Range perhaps a couple of inches on the highest peaks. For the Santa Lucia, 10-20" is not out of the question for the Santa Lucias. Will likely need a Winter Wx Advisory for this area Tuesday/Wednesday. Winds will also be periodically gusty during this time frame, likely hitting Wind Advisory criteria late Monday/early Tuesday into Wednesday.
With cold and wet conditions, we will need to assess for Cold Weather Advisories or Extreme Cold Warnings for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Chilly overnight lows linger into late week, which could lead to additional Cold products being needed.
As we head into the late part of the week and weekend, another storm system arrives. We may get a brief dry period here if weak upper level ridging is able to build.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 955 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026
Mostly VFR this morning with more moderate rain showers moving into the North Bay. As the frontal boundary approaches the coast and potentially remains offshore, expecting MVFR visibilities and/or ceilings at times when heavier rain showers move through the region. Southerly winds will continue to increase and become gusty at times throughout the afternoon before easing a bit late in the evening and into Monday morning. Slight chances for thunderstorms will build in the marine environment with slight chances for these storms to move inland. However, do not have mention of thunderstorms in the TAFs at this time. Greater probability for lowering ceilings to MVFR (potentially lowering to IFR at times especially across the Monterey Bay Area, North Bay, and coastal TAF sites) early Monday morning. Periods of rain showers will persist through the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Mostly VFR conditions are forecast to persist through much of the day with periods of MVFR at times of heavier rain showers. Southerly winds will also increase throughout the afternoon before easing late in the evening and into Monday morning. There is moderate confidence for visibilities and/or ceilings to lower to MVFR early Monday morning. Winds are forecast to become offshore early to midmorning on Monday as the surface low pushes into southern California.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Mostly VFR conditions are forecast to persist through much of the day with periods of MVFR at times of heavier rain showers. Southerly winds will persist with stronger gusts through the afternoon before easing late in the evening and into early Monday morning. By late evening, MVFR visibilities and/or ceilings are forecast to return. There is low probability for IFR conditions early Monday morning.
(today through Friday) Issued at 955 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026
Light showers are moving through the waters with building southerly winds. Rain chances increase through the afternoon with rain rates also increasing. This will be the start of multiple storm systems moving through the waters over the next week. Expect fresh to strong southerly breeze to generate rough seas. Southerly winds strengthen today and becoming strong with gale force gusts along the coast. Stronger winds are likely to last through midweek as a high westerly swell arrives. Thunderstorm chances increase behind the initial front and linger through Tuesday.
Issued at 556 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026
The combination of spring tides and storm surge will bring minor high tide flooding to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay through Tuesday. Up to 1.0 ft of inundation is expected in the San Francisco Bay, with up to 1.5 ft in the Monterey Bay. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to at 9:34 AM Sunday, 10:16 AM Monday, and 10:58 AM Tuesday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and throughout the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
