, Issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 (Today through Friday)
GOES nighttime microphysics imagery has very weak signatures of low clouds and fog in pockets of valley locations this morning. KSTS has had moments of reporting visibility down as low as 1/2 mile, but given the lack of fog on webcams it must be fairly shallow and localized. As temperatures continue to cool toward day break, localized pockets of fog may be possible, however, confidence in dense fog is low at this time and will be monitored closely.
The region remains under the influence of an upper level high that is centered near the northern Nevada/southwestern Idaho border along with a localized area of lower pressure almost 300 miles southeast of San Diego, as analyzed by SPC mesoanalysis. Clear skies dominate the area with light south to southeasterly winds. Minimum temperatures were nudged slightly warmer than the blend this morning for the Salinas and Santa Clara Valleys given the low level thermal ridge and the chance for downsloping winds warming temperatures slightly.
Once again looking at satellite imagery, a noticeable cloud bank out over the ocean is slowly drifting eastward toward the California coastline. This is associated with a 850-700 mb trough that is expected to continue to move east-southeast toward the California coast and phase with the previously mentioned low southeast of San Diego. This trough will drive cooler air advection which will limit temperatures to the 60s on Friday, with isolated far inland areas barely touching 70. Lastly, the NAM is showing a localized 700 mb vort maxima associated with the remnants of the San Diego low that drifts toward the Big Sur coastline on Friday as it phases with the incoming trough. With the increased moisture being lifted upslope in conjunction with this vort max, it cannot be completely ruled out that some light rain/sprinkles develop along the Big Sur coast on Friday. However, PoPs were limited to below 15 percent currently given the lack of consistency across the model suite to have any confidence in timing and occurrence.
..issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 (Friday night through Wednesday)
A weak ridge is expected to redevelop on Saturday, but the (relatively) cooler upper air will remain. Temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees above normal, but still cooler than they have been this past week. Other than some partly cloudy skies in the afternoons, dry conditions are expected for most of the weekend.
A longwave trough is expected to traverse the northeast Pacific over the weekend and move toward the British Columbia coastline by Sunday night. A weak, shortwave trough is expected to eject away from the parent wave and descend down the western coastline through Sunday evening. Ensembles continue to highlight the higher QPF in the Pacific northwest, but just enough moisture should move southward to provide light rain in the North Bay in the evening, with a 15 to 25 percent chance of moving southward overnight.
Beyond Monday morning, another more robust trough is expected to drop southward from the northeast Pacific. While ensembles are showing fairly good agreement with a system moving in next week, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the details. That being said, it looks like a pattern change that can lead to slightly wetter and cooler/more seasonable temperatures is expected.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 939 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
Currently most terminals VRF with some skies SKC and a few seeing FEW200 build in from off the coast. Some FG/HZ remains trapped in a few East Bay valleys (KLVK seeing MVFR conditions), and will take another couple hours to lift and scatter out (satellite trends do show gradual improvement). Winds remain AOB 10kts and generally off shore with some local influences. Gradients will weaken today, letting diurnal influences creep in for some sites (with winds remains AOB 10kts). Some mid/high level moisture will move in around/after 03Z from the west. This should curb chances for FG/HZ formation tonight/early Fri morning, however non-zero chances for KSTS exist. Lower cigs arrive near the end of the period.
Vicinity of SFO, Light E/NE winds will become NW this afternoon. Skies generally SKC, with SCT-BKN at 15kft or above morning in early Friday morning. This should curb chances for HZ forming Friday morning. Cigs will lower near 18Z Fri, potentially seeing MVFR/IFR impacts at times from 18Z through the end of the period. Could see some sprinkles during this time.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Mostly VFR conditions through the period. Mid to high level clouds will move in early Friday morning. Light southeast winds tonight through Friday morning.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
Light south and east winds today will shift to northwest by Friday. Seas will remain slight to moderate today then rapidly build into rough seas tonight to Saturday. Winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front from the Pacific Northwest.
Issued at 918 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from midnight tonight to 4 AM PST Friday at all Pacific Coast beaches, then upgrading to a High Surf Advisory through 9 PM on Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet, increasing to 17 to 22 feet on Friday.
Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
