, Issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026 (Today and tonight)
Not much in the way of cloud cover overnight with only two little blips of clouds, but even those are fading. One of the main things at play here driving the clear skies - sfc pressure gradients. SFO- ACV is near -6mb, which is standard rule of thumb to keep stratus outside of SF Bay/SFO. SFO-WMC is near 2mb and is forecast to become negative by sunrise with a stronger offshore component and not just northerly.
For Thursday day, given warming 850mb temps, rising H5, and offshore flow expect a gradual warm up under sunny skies. About a 5 to 10 deg warm up over Wednesday and trending above normal for mid-May. Highs will be 60s/70s bays/coast and 80s to near 90 inland. Will say offshore flow does ease through the day and expect onshore to kick in again with an afternoon onshore gusty push.
Thursday night - onshore flow lingers at the immediate sfc, but higher elevations begin to shift offshore again with drier air working in. Could see some patchy coastal stratus, but a solid marine layer is looking less likely.
..issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
Friday will feature one additional day of warming as temps tick upwards a few more degrees. Still above normal, but nothing too crazy and HeatRisk remains Minor. The bigger story for Friday will be the winds. SFO-ACV gradient ramps again and this time near -7mb. That will bring some very gusty winds over the coastal waters making for a hazardous marine environment. Additionally, winds increase along the immediate coast and the higher terrain.
Over the weekend winds remain high and get a helping hand from a passing upper level trough through the PacNw/NorCal. This feature also pauses the warming trend for Sat/Sun. The passing trough finally deepens into a low Sun/Mon across the Great Basin. Pattern recognition shows this is decent for offshore push by early Monday. Hi-res guidance ramps up the SFO-WMC gradient to -11mb. That will translate to weakening N-S winds along the coast and coastal waters and increasing winds over the N Bay Mts and E Bay Hills. Borderline for Wind Adv Sun night/Mon AM as winds look to remain over the higher peaks. It goes with out saying that the offshore flow will leading to warming temps early next week. Still not buying the NBM output for max temps, but a return to the 80s near 90 is plausible. Will likely be warmer at the coast too with the offshore flow influence.
Last but not least, interior and higher terrain areas will see a noticeable drop in RH beginning Thursday and lasting into next week. The combo of bursts of wind (N-S and Offshore flow) and low RH will lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Latest Energy Release Component (ERC) charts show an upward trend toward critical levels for mid-May. These charts are taking into account temp/rh, but not wind.
Recapping - roller coaster for temperatures the next few days. Winds increase and remain impactful over the coastal waters and land. RH will decrease both day and night with a marked drying trend.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 933 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
VFR is expected to prevail for all but the Monterey Bay terminals through the TAF period. There is a slight chance for MVFR cigs at the Bay Area terminals but confidence is too low for mentioning in the TAF. Coastal terminals should expect breezy to gusty onshore flow to pick up once again by late Thursday morning into the afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF period with a slight chance of MVFR cigs developing in the pre- dawn hours but confidence is too low for mentioning in the TAF attm. Gusty onshore flow will develop once again Thursday morning through the afternoon and into the evening hours.
SFO Bridge Approach, Same timing as SFO for gusty onshore flow to develop in the morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus is gradually developing in vicinity of both KMRY and KSNS at time of issuance. Good confidence in KMRY seeing MVFR cigs after midnight, with lesser confidence of IFR developing, so left it out of the forecast for the moment. KSNS is expected to develop MVFR cigs around sunrise but may develop earlier based on current satellite trends.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 933 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
Expect hazardous marine conditions to begin to develop rapidly later this afternoon, first across our northern outer waters and quickly spread south. Near gale-force winds tonight and Thursday morning will become gale-force by the afternoon, with widespread severe gale-force winds by Friday across our outer waters. Storm force winds will be possible over the inner water by Friday and continue into the weekend. The strong winds will drive seas between 12 to 17 feet. Expect hazardous conditions for mariners and dangerous conditions for small crafts the weekend into the beginning of next week.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Mry Bay.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
