, Issued at 145 PM PST Thu Jan 1 2026 (This evening through Friday)
Rain showers with the potential for isolated thunderstorms will continue through this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes more unstable as peaks of Sun are starting to make an appearance. Thus, heating will result in up to 250-500 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Convection is starting to pop up across the Central Coast and in the Santa Cruz Mountains, so this afternoon could be get a bit interesting. Any heavier showers and thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing small hail, gusty erratic winds, and possible funnel clouds.
As we head into tonight and early Friday morning, conditions appear to dry out a bit as a weak shortwave ridge builds into the region. This will be short lived before an atmospheric river moves through Friday night into Saturday.
..issued at 145 PM PST Thu Jan 1 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)
A strong fold front will approach the coast with strong southerly winds developing Friday afternoon with the strongest anticipated to be ahead of and along the frontal boundary. These stronger winds will advect deeper moisture with PWAT values between 1.00-1.25" across the entire Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday morning. Additionally, strong showers or thunderstorms will also be likely through Saturday morning as a result of the stronger winds and lifting mechanism of the frontal passage. Wind gusts are forecast to reach between 40-50 mph along the coast and in the higher terrain. Thus, a Wind Advisory remains in effect for the aforementioned areas from 1 PM Friday through 1 PM Saturday. While these winds will not be strong as last week, downed trees/limbs may result in isolated to scattered power outages.
In wake of the frontal passage, 500 mb temperatures will drop to around -16C to -24C allowing for steepening lapse rates that may support deeper convection on Saturday. Another reinforcing front is forecast to arrive Sunday morning and into the afternoon and then again on Monday, which will bring additional rounds of moderate to heavy rain. However, southerly winds aren't expected to be as strong and those Friday night into Saturday. There is still a bit of uncertainty in the ensemble guidance for the rest of next week, however conditions look to remain cool and unsettled.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 405 PM PST Thu Jan 1 2026
An unsettled pattern continues to provide a mix of mostly VFR and MVFR cigs. We're entering a bit of a lull in widespread rainfall, but scattered on-and-off showers persist overnight through mid- morning Friday when a strengthening storm system begins moving onshore Friday afternoon. Expect strong southerly winds impacting all terminals by Friday afternoon and persisting through the remainder of the TAF period with light to moderate rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR is expected to persist through the forecast period with a slight chance of MVFR cigs when showers are in vicinity of the terminal. Strong southerly winds may pick up as early as late morning Friday morning out ahead of the advancing frontal boundary. Strong winds will then persist through the remainder of the forecast period with light to moderate showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar as SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR cigs are expected until early evening with low confidence in MVFR ceilings that may hover between the two categories. The advancing frontal boundary will be felt more to the north with lesser impacts for KSNS and KMRY. However, strong southeasterlies will increase through the Salinas Valley overnight and remain strong through the remainder of the TAF period.
(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 449 PM PST Thu Jan 1 2026
Small Craft Advisories are in effect through the overnight, however may be borderline at times especially for the western portion of our southern outer waters. After sunrise Friday, gale force winds quickly spread over our inner and outer waters as a strong storm system moves on shore over the course of the day. Along with the strong wind, expect light to moderate showers at times with a slight chance of thunderstorms and rough seas. Rain chances and breezy winds continue into next week.
Issued at 900 AM PST Thu Jan 1 2026
Perigean spring tides (King Tides) will impact the region through Sunday. This is due to the combination of the full moon on 1/3, lunar perigee on 1/1, and perihelion on 1/3. In other words all three planetary bodies are lined up and close to each other. In addition to the high astronomical tide, the incoming low pressure system will bring strong southerly winds, generating some storm surge. The combination of these factors will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways during high tide through Sunday. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 2.2 ft above normal at 9:34 AM Friday, 2.5 ft above normal at 10:26 AM Saturday, and 1.8 ft above normal at 11:18 AM Sunday. These predictions include up to 1.3 feet of storm surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-506- 508-509-529-530.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006- 502>505-509-512-515>518-528>530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Friday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning from 9 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
