Issued at 852 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
The much advertised and talked about storm system is taking shape currently off the NorCal coast this evening. In fact, latest satellite imagery and surface analysis puts the surface low due west of Arcata with a pressure of 995mb. Cyclogenesis isn't over yet. As the upper jet becomes even more amplified over the NE Pacific the surface is projected to bomb out near 980mb. So what does this mean for the Bay Area and Central Coast? Forecast still remains on track. The details will be fine tuned with the overnight update. The Bay Area currently sits in the warm sector of the system with a cold front slowing approaching from the west. We've had a few showers, but as of this update the radar is beginning to fill in a little more over the coastal waters and portions of the Central Coast. The cells are over Monterey Bay region and off Big Sur where a few thunderstorms have formed. Even heard thunder at the office. This trend will continue through the overnight hours, especially as the cold front moves east.
In addition to precip, the deepening low and surface gradient has really ramped up the winds. Pine Mountain in Marin Co. is already gusting near 60 mph.
No major updates needed at this time. Will focus on met watch in the near term as winds increase and thunderstorms form. Still expecting deteriorating conditions overnight through early Thursday.
, Issued at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025 (This evening through Thursday)
Light, pre-frontal rain is falling in the higher terrain of the North Bay and the Santa Cruz Mountains due to orographic lift as southerly winds increase ahead of the moderate atmospheric river. This rain will begin to fall over the Santa Lucia Range by this afternoon as the deeper moisture plume shifts southward. Rain will persist in these areas through tonight ahead of the main frontal band forecast to move into the North Bay around 4 AM Thursday morning. Rain will move through the heart of the Bay Area from 4 AM through 10 AM Thursday with a slight chance of thunderstorms, greatly impacting the morning commute. For those commuting in the morning, be prepared for rain and consider allowing extra time for your commute. Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue to progress to the south and inland with precipitation increasing in the Santa Cruz Mountains and areas of the South Bay by 7 AM through 1 PM Thursday. For the Central Coast, the main rain band is currently forecast to move through the region during the early to mid afternoon. Rainfall totals through Thursday afternoon are as such; 2"-4" with isolated up to 5" in the coastal ranges of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast, 1"-2.5" in the North Bay Valleys, 1"-1.5" around the San Francisco Bay Shoreline (including the City), and 0.5"-1.25" elsewhere across the region. There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall). There also remains a slight chance for thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday morning along and in wake of the frontal boundary.
South to southeast winds will begin to increase late this evening and into early Thursday morning, strongest just ahead of the main frontal boundary. From the previous forecaster: "The strongest winds will be along our coastline, especially from the North Bay Coast, including the Marin Hills, down the San Francisco Peninsula. Here we can expected to see wind gusts reaching 55 to 60 miles per hour, with gusts up to 70 mph possible at favored coastal and higher terrain locations. A High Wind Warning will go into effect from 10 PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday morning. Elsewhere a Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10 PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday morning 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph." The Wind Advisory/High Wind Warning very well may need to be extended out in time as we have seen a later arrival of the boundary in most recent model runs.
..issued at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Post-frontal rain showers will linger through Thursday night and into Saturday, especially across the Central Coast. This is as a mid/upper level trough meanders over southern California through Saturday, and potentially into the rest of the weekend. There after, the ensemble guidance indicates either weak troughing or zonal flow which would lead to continued unsettled weather and cooler temperatures region wide.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 939 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
Generally VFR conditions with mid- to high-level clouds and high-end MVFR continue through the next few hours. Southerly winds are expected to increase tonight, with their delayed arrival increasing the uncertainty over the current forecast for the peak wind intensity. Isolated showers are currently observed with the coverage increasing throughout the early overnight hours followed by the main frontal rain band combined with the strongest southerly winds and generally MVFR-IFR conditions progressing from the North Bay after midnight through the rest of the region through Thursday morning. Thunderstorms have already impacted the Monterey Bay terminals tonight. Further thunderstorms can not be ruled out, but confidence in timing and location of convection remains low. The likeliest chances for convection (15-25% probability) are in the coastal regions and the interior Central Coast. There are some directional LLWS concerns as the front passes through, and although the magnitudes remain too low to include in the TAFs, bumpy takeoffs and landings are still anticipated. After the front passes, southerly winds relax and lingering showers persist through the tail end of the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with mid-level clouds to high-end MVFR and isolated showers persist through the early overnight hours. Southeasterly flow will increase through the next few hours, with gusts of at least 30-35 kt expected overnight through Thursday morning. The delayed onset of strong winds has decreased confidence in the wind forecast. The main rain band passes through Thursday morning and brings generally MVFR conditions. After the front passes, expect improving conditions, relaxing winds, and lingering showers through the end of the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR conditions with mid-level clouds continue through early Thursday morning. Southeast flow will increase through the overnight hours and peak on Thursday morning and afternoon, as the main frontal rain band passes through the region. Generally MVFR conditions are expected as the main front moves through. The main band should be beginning to exit late Thursday afternoon, with lingering showers and decreasing winds through this period.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 939 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
Widespread hazardous marine conditions continue to deteriorate across the waters through Thursday morning. Rain showers will increase in coverage and intensity into Thursday morning with embedded thunderstorms possible. Widespread gale force gusts are expected through Thursday morning with storm force gusts expected for the northern waters. Winds will quickly diminish Thursday night. Moderate to rough seas tonight will build to become rough for the inner waters and very rough for the outer waters Thursday through Friday. Seas abate to become moderate by Saturday.
Issued at 414 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
Wave bulletins recently are showing potential for hazardous surf conditions developing late to very late Thursday night and Friday. However, currently it's a low confidence forecast as to whether we'll reach beach hazard criteria or possibly high surf advisory criteria. Complicating the forecast is in situ rapidly deepening low pressure development 400 miles northwest of San Francisco that has itself rapidly evolved just since the weekend, and part of potentially hazardous surf may be related to the local wind field in the vicinity of the storm developing in the nearest term. Wave model forecasts also currently show much of the wave energy over the offshore waters passing by to our west late this week which may help mitigate coastal hazards. Please stay tuned to further updates.
Ca, High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ006-502-505- 509.
Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ503-504-506.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ508-510-512>518- 528>530.
PZ, Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Storm Warning until 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm.
