, Issued at 118 PM PST Wed Nov 5 2025 (This evening through Thursday)
The bulk of the storm is beginning to wind down, but it's not over yet. Latest surface analysis still shows a slow moving cold front traversing the coastal waters with a squeezed warm front oriented N-S ahead of it. This set up is still producing some gusty conditions with scattered showers this afternoon. Peak winds have ended, but still seeing gusts of 35-55 mph. For simplicity sake will keep wind hazards as is through 4 PM with strongest winds over the North Bay and coast. Winds will gradually ease overnight, but still remains breezy. KMUX radar still shows widely scattered showers, especially terrain favored upslope regions. These showers will result in a few hundredths to a few tenths through this evening. Still have a low chance (15% N Bay) for thunderstorms through early this evening, but not looking likely given lack of thunder thus far. Much like the winds, showers will gradually diminish this evening and more so overnight.
As noted on previous discussions, clearing skies, decreasing winds, and ample low level moisture will lead to increased fog chances tonight. Highest probability for fog will be over the North Bay Valleys with a 30-45% chc.
Overall sensible weather for Thursday will be drier and much less windy. Expect some more sunshine too, leading to warmer temperatures.
Tail end of a another system well to the north will bring a few showers back into the North Bay Thursday night.
..issued at 230 PM PST Wed Nov 5 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Long wave pattern shows ridging developing on Friday with dry conditions developing and lasting into the weekend. The nice weather will be enhanced with a burst of offshore flow too. Latest guidance still advertises moderate offshore flow Saturday.
If you're making this weekend a beach day weekend read more below more information. The surf zone will be energetic.
Active weather returns to the region the middle of next week. Details among cluster analysis, ensembles, and deterministic guidance obviously vary at the 6-7 day timeframe, but all show some system developing off the PacNW with rain in CA. Current forecast brings rain back by Wednesday. FWIW CPC longer range outlook highlights a lot of CA for Slight to Moderate Risk for Heavy precip from Nov 13-15.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 854 PM PST Wed Nov 5 2025
Very light isolated showers gradually coming to an end this evening. Cigs mostly lingering just above IFR for most north of KSJC. Anticipated to remain this way with the exception of KSTS where lower cigs and some patchy FG is possible. Moderate-to-high confidence in clearing times to VFR Thursday.
Vicinity of SFO, Low confidence in stratus coverage through the next few hours, so included a TEMPO for patchy MVFR stratus. Anticipating more consistent marine stratus intrusion once higher level clouds move out by about 12Z. Moderate-to-high confidence in VFR clearing time.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Quiet conditions as far as winds and leftover showers go. Weather has basically been restored to a typical early morning stratus, mid-morning VFR pattern. Very slight chance of patchy FG before sunrise depending on how much skies stay clear during the early half of the night.
(today through Monday) Issued at 1123 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025
Gale force winds last across the waters through the late afternoon before reducing in the evening. Rain showers are forecast across all waters today and tonight, with a threat or thunderstorms near and north of Pigeon Point. The main hazards will be locally higher, confused seas. A waterspout or two cannot be discounted. Light to moderate breezes return late tonight into Thursday, though seas will remain elevated between 10 and 15 feet.
Issued at 248 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will persist through the end of the work week as westerly swell rolls in with breaking wave heights in up to 22 feet, particularly for west facing beaches. This will equate to an increased risk for rip currents and sneaker waves. In addition, higher surf may arrive on Thursday, potentially resulting not only an increase in the rip current and sneaker wave threat, but an increase in potential impacts to coastal infrastructure and beach erosion. Remember, sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Swimmers should always swim near a lifeguard. Stay off the rocks, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530.
Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM PST Thursday through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
