Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

953 pm PDT Fri apr 17 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1148 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 (This afternoon through Saturday)

Gusty offshore winds prevail across the Vaca Range, Mayacamas Range, and higher elevations of the East Bay Hills (such as Mt. Diablo). However, as the day progresses, wind speeds will gradually diminish as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific. Thus, a gradual warming trend will continue today with temperatures reaching the mid 60s to low 70s across the interior (potentially mid 70s in the warmest interior locations).

Overnight, temperatures will be chilly and lower into the 40s across most of the lower elevations and near 50 degrees F closer to the coast. However, these temperatures are near seasonal averages. High clouds are forecast to stream in from the west during the overnight hours.

These high clouds will persist into Saturday when we are forecasting the warmest temperatures of the weekend to occur. This is as the mid/upper level short wave ridge axis will become positioned over much of the Bay Area and Central Coast. There is a greater than 50% probability for San Jose, Gilroy, Hollister, and King City to exceed 80 degrees F on Saturday afternoon (but near 0% of exceeding 85 degrees F). Elsewhere, we are expecting mid-to- upper 60s on northwest facing coastal locations and low-to-upper 70s across the rest of the region.

Long Term

..issued at 1148 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)

A gradual cooling trend will begin on Sunday as a mid/upper level low drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and approaches the Pacific Northwest and northern California coast. This will bring unsettled weather to much of the region Monday and Tuesday with temperatures dropping to below seasonal averages. Rain chances begin across the North Bay late Sunday, yet rainfall amounts will generally be light (if any occurs). There are still differences in the deterministic models with the ECMWF bringing rain to the North Bay late Sunday while the GFS does not bring widespread precipitation in until Monday afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will also increase ahead of and along the frontal boundary, yet how strong they will be remains in question. Tuesday will be when the Bay Area and Central Coast will have the greatest potential for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. We will have a better handle on the evolution of this system once we get in the range of the high resolution and convection-allowing models. Post-frontal rain showers look to linger into Wednesday. There still is no clear signal of what the pattern looks like heading into late next week.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 953 PM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Breezy onshore winds are diminishing across much of the region with only relatively breezy conditions continuing at SFO. Winds remain on track to continue diminishing overnight and become variable. LAMP guidance continues to indicate stratus is possible at HAF but confidence remains low. If stratus were to develop at HAF it would likely be short lived between 12Z-18Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Stratus looks to return shortly after 06Z Sunday.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Breezy onshore winds continue to diminish tonight before becoming variable through tomorrow morning. Winds restrengthen during the afternoon/evening with winds around 15 knots expected. Some potential for stratus to return towards the end of the TAF period but confidence is currently lower.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Light, variable winds continue overnight with breezy onshore winds redeveloping during the

Marine

(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 953 PM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Fresh north to northwest winds will continue to diminish through Saturday with moderate winds expected Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Winds shift southerly Sunday ahead of an incoming low pressure system and cold front. Winds are expected to strengthen ahead of cold frontal passage Monday into Tuesday with localized strong gusts expected. Moderate seas, rain, and a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, None.

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