, Issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)
As of 1 PM PDT, temperatures are running between 10-25 degrees cooler than this time yesterday with up to 30 degrees cooler in isolated locations. Needless to say, the cool down has arrived. Early morning stratus was slow to retreat to the coast, but with mostly sunny skies across the interior we are expected this afternoon to still be warm.
An upper level cut-off low pressure is approximately 400 miles southwest of the Monterey Bay. This has allowed for a deepening marine layer that is forecast to deepen further tonight and into Saturday morning to around 2000 feet. As such, have added coastal drizzle into the forecast south of the Golden Gate where there is about a 20-60% probability (based off of the HREF) of seeing greater than 0.01" of precipitation from 8 PM this evening through 8 AM Saturday. This is a typical pattern for which we see widespread coastal drizzle!
By late tonight and into Saturday morning, a mostly dry frontal passage (minus the drizzle) is forecast to move from north the south across the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will bring temperatures down to below seasonal averages Saturday, generally 5 to 15 degrees cooler. In wake of the frontal passage, winds will increase out of the northwest with afternoon and evening gusts between 35-45 mph in the favored gaps, passes, and wind-prone areas. Winds over the ocean will be even stronger with gale-force gusts likely!
..issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)
Winds ease a bit on Sunday with an even colder air mass settling into the region from the north. Temperatures will struggle to warm into the 60s to lower 70s across much of the region. By Sunday night into Monday, there is a chance for rain showers over the north Central Coast as mid/upper level remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel and an upper level cut-off low move across the region. Across the Bay Area and North Bay, there is a less than 10-15% chance of precipitation. This could change depending on the track of the cut- off low and remnant moisture.
Cooler conditions persist into midweek before a gradual warming trend takes palace towards the latter half of the week as ridging builds in from the eastern Pacific.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 929 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
The first half of the TAFs is focused on IFR-MVFR stratus developing and clearing. The second half of the TAFs is dealing with strong onshore winds. Currently STS, APC, HAF, MRY and SNS have IFR-MVFR ceilings, SFO and OAK may develop them for a few hours, and SJC and LVK are probably safe. A dry cold front coming from the north will bring drier air and strong onshore winds through the day Saturday.
Vicinity of SFO, While there is still a chance for ceilings overnight, the current satellite loop shows a pretty good hole over the terminal that hasn't been shrinking at all. OAK has a better chance of ceilings. The forecast is far from certain, however, as the SW winds will shift to a more westerly direction as the front approaches tonight. That, combined with the deepening marine layer, brings a chance for stratus to reach the terminal through the San Bruno Gap. On the other hand, the air behind the cold front is more dry, and the stronger winds should help mix out the lingering low-level moisture. Winds will increase through the day Saturday, with gusts up to 30 kts expected in the afternoon and early evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR ceilings are likely to persist through the night before clearing sometime around 18Z. The winds won't be as strong as the SF Bay Area.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 929 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Conditions are dangerous across the coastal waters this weekend. Strong NW winds have arrived in the northwestern outer waters and will spread south through the night as a cold front moves through. Frequent gale force gusts are expected in exposed waters. Rough to very rough seas will build in response to the strong winds. On top of the hazardous winds and rough wind waves, 2 sets of swell arrive this weekend, from both the south and west. The significant wave height will reach 15 feet in the outer waters.
Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Saturday through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves up to 16 feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!
Sarment
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.
Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM PDT Saturday through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
