, Issued at 410 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026 (Today and tonight)
Satellite imagery this morning shows the area of low pressuring west of California, while a frontal boundary approaches the offshore waters of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Rain showers will continue to taper in, eventually becoming late in the day or early evening hours. Associated with that, will be an uptick in southerly winds throughout the day bringing widespread gusts up to 15-30 mph. The windiest areas will be along the coast and elevated terrain where gusts to 45 mph, perhaps locally higher will be observed. In terms of rainfall amounts for today, the highest amounts will be in the North Bay 0.6-2.5" and around 0.6-1.75" Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia. Elsewhere amounts will range from 0.25-1.0" for the San Francisco Peninsula, and about 0.1-0.5" for the interior Central Coast and East and South Bay counties. The WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall and the potential for flash flooding over much of the Bay Area, should we get moderate to heavy periods of localized rainfall. This would be conducive with the passage of the front and any stronger showers or isolated thunderstorms.
..issued at 410 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026 (Monday through Saturday)
Ensemble and cluster analysis show upper level troughing holding over the region. This will lead to additional storm systems moving through the area, bringing periods of rain and wind. The first round for the work week, will be on Monday as an upper level low swings into the central portion of CA. This will likely occuring in time for the morning commute, creating slick roadways and perhaps ponding on roadways or poor drainage flooding. Rain continues into the early afternoon, before tapering off in the evening. The WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall and the potential for flash flooding from the Gold Gate area southward, clipping Oakland and a good portion of the South Bay. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also painted over the Santa Lucia and Monterey Coast. And in terms of thunder, the SPC now has general thunder over the majority of the region.
Looking at the next system, we'll see see more wind and rain with a new flavor added to the forecast. Colder air. Precipitation will start off as rain, but by late Tuesday into Wednesday there will likely be some transition to all snow for the higher elevations across the region. Rainfall amounts Monday night through Wednesday: 1-1.5" most areas and up to 2-3" Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range. Snow levels from 4000-5000feet to about 2200-4300ft by Tuesday afternoon/evening and then down to 1500-2700ft by Wednesday morning. The lowest levels will be around around the North Bay by Wednesday morning. Snow accumulations for the highest North Bay peaks look to be around an inch or so at this time, and the for the Diablo Range perhaps a couple of inches on the highest peaks. For the Santa Lucia, 10-20" is not out of the question for the Santa Lucias. Will likely need a Winter Wx Advisory for this area Tuesday/Wednesday. Winds will also be periodically gusty during this time frame, likely hitting Wind Advisory criteria late Monday/early Tuesday into Wednesday.
With cold and wet conditions, we will need to assess for Cold Weather Advisories or Extreme Cold Warnings for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Chilly overnight lows linger into late week, which could lead to additional Cold products being needed.
As we head into the late part of the week and weekend, another storm system arrives. We may get a brief dry period here if weak upper level ridging is able to build.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 426 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026
Light showers are moving through the area along with building mid- level clouds as well as spotty MVFR CIGS. Winds turn south to southeast through the morning and become gusty into the afternoon as a cold front nears. Expect moderate, to at times, increased rain rates along the frontal boundary, leading to reduced visibilities. Chances for storms will build in the marine environment along as behind the front, with slight chances for these storms to move on land. Rain rates reduce in the wake of the front, but moderate to breezy southerly winds will continue as the low pressure approaches. Expect shower activity to last beyond the end of the TAF period with additional chances for storms arriving into late Monday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, Southeast winds last through the TAF period with mostly mid-level clouds. Expect breezy and gusty winds with passing showers through the morning. Rain chances and winds increase into the afternoon as the cold front arrives. Rain rates increase as the front passes over the terminal, reducing visibilities into the late afternoon and through the first part of the night. Expect rain rates to reduce, as showers become more scattered into the late night. Winds will also reduce, but stay moderate. Scattered lower clouds arrive into late Monday morning with longer breaks between showers.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Mid level clouds and light showers are moving through the area as southeast winds build. Stronger gusts arrive into the afternoon with increasing shower activity. A brief slow down in rain chances is expected in the evening, but the main rain band moves through in the early night, leading to breezier winds and reduced visibilities from increased rain rates along with MVFR CIGs. Rain rates reduce in the late night as gusts cut off, but showers continue beyond the TAF period.
(today through Friday) Issued at 410 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026
Light showers are moving through the waters with building southerly winds. Rain chances build through the morning with rain rates also increasing. This will be the start of multiple storm systems moving through the waters over the next week. Expect fresh to strong southerly breeze to generate rough seas. Southerly winds strengthen into the morning, becoming strong with gale force gusts along the coast. Stronger winds are likely to last through midweek as a high westerly swell arrives. Thunderstorm chances increase behind the initial front and linger through Tuesday.
Issued at 556 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026
The combination of spring tides and storm surge will bring minor high tide flooding to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay through Tuesday. Up to 1.0 ft of inundation is expected in the San Francisco Bay, with up to 1.5 ft in the Monterey Bay. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to at 9:34 AM Sunday, 10:16 AM Monday, and 10:58 AM Tuesday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and throughout the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
