, Issued at 1205 AM PST Sat Jan 17 2026 (Today and tonight)
Conditions are similar to last night, with a few subtle changes. First, the marine stratus has peeled off the coast. This is thanks to robust offshore flow. The SFO-WMC gradient is -12.3 mb, quite a bit stronger than most models have it analyzed. Mt. St. Helena is reporting ENE winds gusting as high as 47 mph tonight. This and several other mountain stations would actually be in Red Flag Criteria if the annual grasses were cured. This offshore gradient will weaken over the next 36 hours as both the strong surface high over the Rockies and the trough over California weaken. The other difference tonight is high clouds moving in from the south. These will help moderate both the min and max temperature by a degree or two and bring some color to the sunrise and sunset today. Otherwise it will feel very similar to yesterday.
..issued at 1205 AM PST Sat Jan 17 2026 (Sunday through Friday)
Sunday will be a rinse and repeat of Saturday. Expect a chilly morning, warm afternoon and some high clouds through the day. This pattern will stick around as the strong ridging that extends all the way to the jet stream will continue through the week. There is a chance for a short wave trough at 500 mb to bring some very light rain Thu-Fri, but it's looking more and more like that will just be a cloud maker. That little trough is important though. It's the first domino to fall in the gradual pattern change. The 500 mb flow will likely become more zonal by next weekend. There's significant disagreement in the ensemble clusters after next weekend, but some solutions bring a legitimate troughing pattern and possible wet weather back for the last week of January. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble IQR has between 1.0-2.5" of rain from the 27th to the 31st at SFO.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 403 AM PST Sat Jan 17 2026
VFR continues for most TAF sites through the TAF period. The exceptions will be STS and APC which will see fog this morning and again tonight. Winds will mostly say light through the TAF period with directions being mostly variable, although some localized effects will determine the wind directions at a few of the TAF sites.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Expect mostly light and variable winds through much of the day before winds turn northeasterly in the late afternoon, but become variable again into the night.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the TAF period. East to southeast winds last through into the afternoon before winds more variable. Winds turn easterly and southeasterly again into the night.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 403 AM PST Sat Jan 17 2026
Expect moderate to breezy winds across the San Pablo Bay, the delta, and through the Golden Gate through the weekend while light northeasterly to northerly winds persist across the rest of the waters. Light seas continue into early next week before the next round of long period swell arrives and brings light to moderate seas in the mid week.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
