Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

934 pm PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Update

Issued at 851 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The forecast remains on track tonight with gradual warming through the end of the week, peaking on Saturday. With the pleasant weather expected to begin the weekend, please keep in mind that long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches on Saturday.

Short Term

, Issued at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 (This evening through Thursday)

Another cool day is expected across the region with lingering cloud cover. Temperatures will likely warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the region with isolated pockets nearing 70 degrees F. The mid/upper level low is now located over Nevada and will continue a east-northeastward track over the next 24 hours or so. In wake of the exiting trough, high pressure will nose in from the eastern Pacific. This will result in a gradual warming trend the next few days and weak offshore winds, mainly in the higher elevations beginning tonight.

With offshore winds aloft, only expecting FEW/SCT clouds tonight and may become BKN by late evening in areas that typically see overnight stratus. Temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday look to bottom out in the 40s across the interior and lower 50s around the San Francisco Bayshore and coastal areas. The highest peaks across the region very well may drop into the upper 30s, especially across the Central Coast where the offshore winds are expected to be weaker.

Temperatures on Thursday look to warm into the the upper 60s near the coast to lower 70s inland with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Again, these temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below average.

Long Term

..issued at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)

The warming and drying trend will continue through Friday as temperatures rebound to near seasonal averages as weak offshore flow persists. By Saturday, forecast to be the warmest day of the week, we are expecting temperatures to be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

By Sunday, what appears to be a dry frontal boundary will move across the region cooling temperatures slightly. Rain chances have been removed from the forecast as the a mid/upper level low drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and moves inland over the Pacific Northwest on Monday. Zonal flow is forecast across the Bay Area and Central Coast through the remainder of next week.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 934 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

It's currently VFR with a decrease in low cloud coverage since late afternoon. However, based on recent mesoscale model output it's not a high confidence forecast as to whether or not low clouds will continue to steadily diminish tonight and Thursday morning. 06z TAFs are a blend of VFR-MVFR for the overnight with night-time cooling also leading to patchy fog /LIFR-IFR/ by early Thursday morning. Diurnal surface heating and mixing results in VFR Thursday.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR-MVFR. West to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Light and variable winds to light southeast winds tonight and Thursday morning. Onshore winds near 10 knots redeveloping Thursday afternoon. Light and variable winds to light southeast winds redevelop Thursday night.

Marine

(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 851 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Light to gentle breezes persist across the waters this evening, building to a moderate to fresh breeze through the end of this week. A longer period northwesterly swell arrives this weekend 7 to 10 feet at 15 seconds.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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