, Issued at 151 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)
Water vapor imagery this afternoon is quite fascinating as you can see the upper level troughing moving into northern California, while Tropical Storm Rachel moves towards Baja California. Visible satellite imagery shows some high clouds from TS Rachel starting to infiltrate the southern most skies in the Central COast while the majority of the region observes mostly clear skies due to drier air that has worked into the region. Though a few areas are still seeing some stratocumulus clouds lingering. The forecast generally appears to be on track as high temperatures generally sit in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, the low 60s to low 70s for interior valley locations, and the warmer temperatures, generally in the mid 70s for the thermal belts.
Tonight, skies should clear for much of the region. Coastal stratus might try to around and south of Half Moon Bay,sneaking into the northern Salinas Valley. Temperatures tonight will cooler than last, with the 40s expected for most interior valley locations, and the upper 40s to low 50s for those near the coast or influenced by the stratus. Some higher elevations in the Diablo and Gabilan Ranges, the Cholame Hills, Sierra de Salinas, and Santa Lucia could see lows dip into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Sunday and Monday, upper level troughing continues to dominate the weather. Unseasonably cool high temperatures are forecast for the entire region, generally ranging from 5 to 15 degrees below their normals. Sunday looks to be dry for much of the period. Some showers might try to sneak up into southern Monterey and perhaps even into southern San Benito counties late Sunday into Monday morning. Models from the 12Z suite still showed this, though the NBM had continued to pull chances southward and out of the region. This continues to be seen with the 18Z model runs, which means chances may continue to trend south of our region. For now, kept the 15-40% chance of rain in the grids, favoring the Santa Lucia and Monterey/San Luis Obispo county lines. Precip amounts continue to be light and have trended to 0-0.05".
..issued at 151 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 (Monday through next Friday)
Upper level troughing slowly exits the region on Tuesday as an eastern Pacific High builds. One more day of cooler weather is expected, though temperatures should be several degrees higher than Monday. As upper level ridging moves in Wednesday and is then expected to hold through the end of the work week with cluster analysis supporting ridging into the weekend. Warmer and more seasonal weather is expected for mid week, with above normal temperatures expected for the weekend. Currently, no record high temperatures are at risk of being broken.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
MVFR ceilings already developed at HAF and MRY which is expected to be followed by SNS later tonight. Conditions are expected to improve early Sunday morning at these terminals. Everywhere else should remain VFR through the TAF cycle with a few to scattered stratocumulus decks. Light winds prevail overnight before increasing to moderate (10 to 15 kt) by Sunday afternoon. Low confidence for MVFR ceilings to return Sunday evening at coastal terminals, moderate confidence for VFR to continue to prevail elsewhere.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period with potential for some scattered decks overnight. These are expected to be short-lived, therefore they were not mentioned in the official TAF. Lower chance for gusty onshore winds Sunday afternoon as winds shift southwest to southerly post-sunset. Medium confidence on the exact timing of wind shifts.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR conditions at MRY are expected to improve by Sunday morning. Low to medium confidence on exactly when MVFR ceilings impact SNS as they can roll in earlier than advertised. Overall, VFR prevails late Sunday morning as onshore winds increase to around 10-12 kt. Low confidence on whether MVFR stratus develops Sunday evening. If anything, it may be borderline MVFR-VFR.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Hazardous marine conditions persist through early next week. Fresh to strong northwest breezes are supporting rough to very rough seas across the coastal waters. Expect frequent gale force gusts north of Pigeon Point and near gale force gusts to the south. A low long period southerly swell and a moderate long period westerly swell combined with strong winds are contributing to a confused sea state.
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Heading to the beach this weekend? The Sun will be out, but beaches conditions will be less than ideal. A cold front will bring gusty winds over the coastal waters and nearby beaches. More importantly, the surf zone will remain very energetic. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves 13-16 feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!
MM
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
