Issued at 852 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
Though temperatures remained well-above seasonal normals today, afternoon readings came in several degrees cooler than yesterday, following our expected trajectory for gradually decreasing temperatures. The weekend will see additional cooling, with the region experiencing below-normal temperatures by midweek.
Otherwise, no changes to the forecast this evening. Slight (10-20 percent) chances of rainfall continue for the area Sunday afternoon and evening, with best chances in the North Bay. The most likely outcome is nuisance light rain / sprinkles, with minimal rain- related impacts expected. Rain chances further increase Monday and Tuesday as an offshore system ushers 0.90-1.10" PWATs inland. Storm Total Precipitation continues to fall in an envelope generally between 0.10" and 0.25" across the forecast area, with upward of 0.50" possible in the higher terrain, and as low as 0.05" in valley locations.
A High Surf Advisory continues through 9 PM Saturday for all Pacific Coast beaches, find details in the BEACHES section below.
, Issued at 146 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 (This evening through Saturday)
It's another Chamber of Commerce weather day across the central Cali coast with sunny skies and widespread temperatures in the 60s. However, the thin layer of stratocu that developed along the Big Sur coast is a sign of potential trouble for tonight. This is this sign of a bit of a marine layer working back on to the mainland. RAP Bufkit soundings highlight around a 1000 foot deep moist layer developing tonight, which means valley stratus and fog will become problematic. HREF/REFS are showing lower visibilities with fog developing for most of the major valleys in the region, with dense fog developing up through Salinas, the southern Bay into San Franciso Bay itself and up in the valleys of Napa and especially Sonoma county. This may lead to some fog/low stratus issues Saturday morning at all Bay area airports.
For the rest of Saturday, we'll spend the morning burning off what fog/stratus we end up with, with another stellar afternoon of weather expected across the Bay area and central coast.
..issued at 146 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
The big story for the long term is the much anticipated(?) pattern shift at the end of the period, with a western trough developing next weekend. Before that large scale pattern shift settles in, there will be a couple of blips to watch out for, late Sunday through Sunday night and Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
The first trough that we see finally starting to beat down the ridge comes Sunday. This will be heading for Washington and Oregon though, with central California seeing a weakly forced plume of moisture moving south along the coast Sunday through Sunday night. EPS QPF probabilities barely bring precip probabilities into northern Sonoma and Napa counties, so we continued to trim the southern extent of PoPs across the Bay area Sunday night from the NBM. In the end, this looks to be a cloud and sprinkle maker, but not much more than that in the MTR area.
Tuesday, a deeper trough starts working down the west coast. We'll see stronger onshore flow develop with this trough, with deeper moisture moving into California. Precip chances from the NBM Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night remain in the 40-60% range. A look at the individual members of the EPS for SFO, still shows about a 60/40 split between wet/dry members at SFO, so it's still not a lock that we see rainfall at some of the rain shadowed locations midweek. Even if we get rain, amounts still look light with up to 0.5" on the coastal ranges.
Behind this wave, we see another ridge build in across California Thursday/Friday out ahead of the deepening trough over the northeast Pac. This ridge will dry us out and bring some sunny skies again for Thursday and Friday, giving us one more break before the deep troughing arrives. When that deep troughing gets here, we'll see an uptick in rainfall for the second half of next weekend that will continue into the following week. Also happening mid-February with the trough moving (week of 2/16) is freezing levels will be dropping, with snow levels starting to move down as well. At this point, it doesn't look like freezing levels will be low enough to significantly impact higher elevations in the MTR area, but those that are hoping to just see snow in western mountains somewhere, there is hope for you with the current outlooks in mid-February!
(06z TAFS) Issued at 942 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
Marine stratus has increased in coverage along the coast and is beginning to push inland. Confidence remains high that mainly IFR/LIFR stratus and localized fog will continue to increase overnight, impacting all TAF terminals. Fog has already developed near STS and should continue into Saturday morning. Elsewhere, the potential for fog reducing visibilities below 1SM is lower, but not zero. Improving conditions late Saturday morning into early afternoon with stratus eroding back to the coast. Prevailing onshore flow will allow low stratus to advance into the terminals once again Saturday night. Winds through the period will mostly be light, with onshore or diurnally-driven winds overnight and primarily onshore winds on Saturday.
Vicinity of SFO, IFR stratus expected to push into the terminal by 08Z, with a low potential for LIFR fog or low ceilings overnight as well. IFR conditions continuing through around 20Z before improving Saturday afternoon/evening. Another round of low ceilings expected overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Winds mainly light WNW around 10 kts or less.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, IFR stratus will continue to push into the SF Bay overnight, reaching OAK around 07Z and SJC 08-10Z. Conditions mainly IFR, although there is a low potential for LIFR fog/stratus at both sites, with a slightly higher chance at SJC. Stratus eroding by 19-20Z with VFR conditions expected Saturday afternoon. More low stratus pushing back in from the coast Saturday night, mainly after 06Z. Winds mainly light NW to variable.
Monterey Bay Terminals, IFR stratus overnight, although short breaks in IFR conditions are possible. Conditions improving by early Saturday afternoon, with a few low clouds lingering along the coast. Winds mainly light NW to variable.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 942 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
A light to gentle north wind prevails across most of the coastal waters through Saturday, with light southwest flow developing in the far outer waters north of Point Reyes. Northerly winds will increase in the northern Monterey Bay on Saturday morning, with seas then diminishing into Saturday evening. A cold front moves southeastward over the coastal waters and bays gradually during the day Sunday and Sunday night, resulting in an increase in north-northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday. Rough seas will diminish to moderate seas by Saturday afternoon, persisting through Sunday before a new swell train comes into the region early next week.
Issued at 247 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
A High Surf Advisory will be in effect beginning 4 AM PST today at all Pacific Coast beaches, the High Surf Advisory continues through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to 22 feet.
Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
