, Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (This evening through Wednesday)
Morning stratus and fog has retreated back to the coastal areas early this afternoon with mostly sunny skies over much of the CWA. The marine layer remains around 100-1500 feet and should reamin in that range tomorrow. With a similar marine layer expected tomorrow an extensive area of stratus and fog, similar to this morning, is expected tomorrow morning. Stratus will start to move back inland around or a few hours prior to sunset tonight.
High pressure remains in place over Western CONUS with H5 heights (590-592 dm) similar to slightly higher than that of yesterday. With similar H5 heights temperatures this afternoon will be around, or a few degrees warmer than yesterday's afternoon high temperatures. Inland areas are forecasted to see afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s with coastal areas seeing highs in the 60s to low 70s. These temperatures will lead to widespread Minor HeatRisk, with localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Make sure to continue to practice smart heat safety (especially if you're more sensitive to the heat) by limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade (if outdoors), and staying hydrated.
Tomorrow the high pressure system will start to break down leading to the beginning of our upcoming cooling trend, especially for inland areas. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be around 2-5 degrees cooler tomorrow across the inland areas. Similar temperatures are expected along the coast due to the influence of the marine layer (which will be similar to today's).
Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell continues, which increases the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean!
..issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Thursday through next Tuesday)
On Thursday the aforementioned ridge will continue to break down with a weak upper level trough moving into the Eastern Pacific. This trough will then move across the region Friday and Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances with this trough will reamin in the higher terrain to the north and east of the CWA. Our area will remain dry with the exception of some areas of drizzle off the coast early Friday. Additionally this trough will cause a cooling trend as the marine layer deepens allowing for the cooler marine air to migrate further inland leading to cooler temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be in the 70s to low 80s, which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Weak troughing continues over the region on Sunday, with ridging starting to push back into our area early next week leading to a warming trend, especially for the inland areas.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding across the region and will impact most of the terminals tonight as breezy onshore winds continue to diminish overnight. Moderate to high confidence that LVK will remain VFR through the night, with some high resolution model output showing stratus impacts in the vicinity of the terminal. Stratus retreats back to the coast Wednesday morning, with the breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon, again with a southerly component as a mesoscale low develops off the North Bay coastline. At HAF, high confidence that ceilings continue through the TAF period. Stratus will begin to expand inland again by the end of the 24-hour TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions at present with breezy west- northwest winds diminishing through the early overnight hours. Moderate confidence in MVFR-IFR stratus timing at SFO, but ceilings are expected to develop by 10Z. Stratus will dissipate through Wednesday morning with breezy west winds returning to the terminal in the afternoon. Stratus will return to the terminal area late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Stratus may impact the approach path a little later than at the terminal tonight. Otherwise similar to SFO.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC, Stratus has taken hold at OAK with the breezy west winds diminishing through the evening. At SJC, there is low to moderate confidence on the timing of stratus impacts as radiational development is possible, but should no radiative stratus develop, MVFR ceilings should develop around 10-12Z. Stratus will dissipate in the afternoon with breezy northwest winds developing at OAK. Confidence in the wind direction and speed is lower at SJC for Wednesday afternoon as the terminal sits between a northwest flow from SF Bay and downsloping winds from the Santa Cruz Mountains. Have opted to lean more towards the climatological diurnal wind, but may need to carefully monitor observations and future TAF updates through the day. Stratus will return to OAK sometime late Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR-IFR stratus through the night into Wednesday morning as breezy winds continue to diminish through the evening and early overnight hours. Stratus should retreat to the immediate coast on Wednesday morning with the breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon, coming from the west at MRY and the northwest at SNS. Wednesday evening, stratus flow could impact SNS as early as 00-02Z, and MRY soon after.
(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 958 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Fresh to strong north winds across the northern outer waters result in hazardous seas through tomorrow morning. However, onshore pushes will bring moderate to fresh south to southwest winds for the San Pablo and San Francisco Bays during the afternoon and evening hours, as well as near the coast from Point Sur north to Point Pinos and Pigeon Point to the Golden Gate. Otherwise, generally light to gentle winds into the weekend. Seas will remain slight to moderate into the weekend with a low south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters.
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
