Issued at 920 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
The leading edge of the rain band is moving through the North Bay. The rain has been underwhelming so far. Both the radar estimation and rain gauges are only showing a couple hundredths so far. Cloud top temperatures are only around -40C. The 00Z sounding showed some weak CAPE, but it was all below the freezing level. This basically eliminates the threat of thunderstorms. The main band is expected over the next 6 hours, and high resolution models are holding steady with around 1/4" of rain for now. I wouldn't be surprised if the next forecast update revises the expected rainfall down. Either way this system will not bring any significant impacts.
, Issued at 1231 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025 (This evening through Thursday)
The last round of rain for this week arrives this evening and will gradually spread from north to south overnight. Rain may be lingering during the morning commute hours depending on your location, with areas south of San Francisco and the East Bay having the best chance. Road will be slick and there is a possibility for n nuisance flooding, such as minor ponding of water on roadways, poor drainage, or urban areas. Once the front works through, there may be some post frontal showers though those will diminish as drier air works its way into the region. In addition to rain, some gusty winds of 30-40 mph are expected along the coasts and higher terrain. Rain amounts for this system haven't changed much with the terrain of the North Bay, Santa Lucia, and Santa Cruz mountains potentially seeing up to 0.25-0.50" while everywhere else is closer to 0.10-0.20" or less.
..issued at 1231 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)
No major changes to the extended forecast. Friday will be the start of a drier stretch of weather, with temperatures warming up a few degrees for the weekend. Highs rise into the 60s for most locations on Saturday, with cooler temperatures in the 50s for those on higher terrain. Sunday looks to be warmer with the mid 60s to near 70s expected for interior valleys, the mid 50s to mid 50s along the coast, and from the 50s to upper 60s for those in higher terrain. The weather looks to mostly be on repeat through early next week.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 939 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
VFR-MVFR along with areas of IFR developing in rain tonight and Thursday. Low pressure system and surface cool front depart to the south during the day Thursday and Thursday night.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR-MVFR tempo IFR 10-14z Thursday. Rain tonight and Thursday morning then a few showers lingering to later Thursday. Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 knots Thursday morning after cool frontal passage.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR-MVFR tempo IFR as early as 15z and late as 20z Thursday KMRY and KSNS. Rain tonight and Thursday then showers lingering Thursday night. Mainly light southeasterly winds developing overnight then becoming west to northwest 10 knots Thursday after cool frontal passage.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 933 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
Hazardous marine conditions and rain returns late tonight into Thursday with a weak storm system moving across the coastal waters. This system will bring a return of moderate winds with strong gusts tonight through Friday before winds abate over the weekend. Seas build to between 10 to 15 feet Thursday and remain elevated into early next week. Elevated seas will be prolonged by the arrival of two distinct rounds of long period northwesterly swell.
Issued at 322 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
