, Issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Today and tonight)
The system that brought precip over the weekend is now carving its way through the Four Corners region. In its wake upper level ridging is currently building over the CA. As such, expect warmer and drier conditions to kick off the work week. Speaking of the weekend rain, residual low level moisture may lead to some patchy fog, but widespread fog impacts are looking less likely this morning. High clouds associated with the next rain maker are spilling over the ridge, which is limiting radiational cooling potential. Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than Sunday and in the 60s to lower 70s.
The dry weather will be short-lived as the next rain maker will make is presence known after midnight tonight. The ridge weakens and moves eastward. Behind the ridge is another upper level low. This feature will bring precip back to the region. Rain chances initially develop over the North Bay late tonight.
..issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)
Will likely be a wet commute Tuesday morning as the associated surface low begins to move closer to the coast. Precip chances will spread S and E through the day, but loose some steam over the interior Central Coast. In addition to precip, instability increase over the northern coastal waters during the afternoon. Thunderstorms have been added to the forecast. Will leave them out of the forecast over land at this time, but some hi-res models suggest instability does briefly drift into Sonoma county during the afternoon. Thunder may need to be added on the next forecast update. Precip chances linger into early Tuesday before drier weather returns by Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will be greatest over the North Bay 0.10-0.50", Bay Area 0.01-0.25", Central Coast little to no accum.
Wednesday kicks off a warming and drying trend that will last into next weekend with quasi-zonal flow transitioning to ridging aloft. Temperature rebound will be impressive too as highs reach the 70s to lower 80s next weekend.
Looking out into fantasy land the Pacific stays active with additional rain chance on the horizon. Next rain chance return around Nov 10-11.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 319 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Currently VFR with high clouds streaming in from the west. Low confidence on fog development tonight with high clouds limiting radiational cooling; however, STS was briefly IFR earlier. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Towards the end of the 24 hour TAF period and into the next one, winds will increase and shift to become southerly ahead of the cold front. Rain showers will spread from northwest to southeast starting at 15Z tomorrow. Low probability for thunderstorms with the best chances farther north.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR through most of the TAF period. An approaching cold front will lower clouds through the TAF period and bring rain showers to the terminal as early as 15Z tomorrow. Brief reductions in ceiling and visibility will be possible with rain showers, likely MVFR. Winds will be light and diurnal today before increasing and backing tonight to become southerly ahead of the cold front.
SFO Bridge Approach, Low clouds below FL070 will begin to filter in as early as 07Z.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR with drainage flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period.
(today through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Rough seas will build into the outer waters tonight through Wednesday morning, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft. Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes will increase and back tonight to become moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain with a low chance of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday as a result with the greatest chances north of Pigeon Point. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas will prevail Wednesday through Friday.
Issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Monday and Tuesday as long period (15-19 second) northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!
Sarment
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
