Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

918 pm PST Sun Feb 1 2026

Update

Issued at 903 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

The forecast remains on track with warm and dry conditions through the extended forecast. However, just beyond our extended forecast, there's some hope in the synoptic pattern for some rainfall. The Climate Prediction Center issued an updated outlook earlier today, indicating the potential for above normal precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook.

Short Term

, Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026 (This evening through Monday)

It's another warm afternoon with some passing high clouds and slightly better onshore flow to prevent highs from getting as warm as yesterday. Temperatures are set to peak in the upper 50s along the coast, 60s for the the areas more inland, and into the 70s for the far interior. Winds continue to be mostly light across the region.

The overnight offers more of the same compared to last night and this morning with lows reducing only by a few degrees across much of the area. Interior valleys do look to fall into the upper 30s while most areas see the 40s overnight. Small increases in overnight humidities look to offer better chances for North and East Bay fog overnight, with some hints for fog around the Santa Clara Valley later into the night. This fog looks to be longer lasting in these areas as well, with fog chances lasting into the late morning.

Despite of the late clearing, temperatures warm at a good rate for Monday afternoon with forecasted highs expected to be near or slightly warmer than our Sunday highs.

Long Term

..issued at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

The warming trend hits its stride in the mid week as the jet stream's ridge pattern strengthens and tightens while the ridge axis tilts eastward. This will lead to lighter to still winds, and a few areas of offshore flow. The mix of more stagnant air, clear skies, and drying conditions will lead to highs to peak in the 60s and 70s by Tuesday. Then a fairly well defined Rex Block will form over the west coast the mid week, with the high pressure portion centered over California. This will cal for even warmer temperatures, drying humidities, and weak winds. Wednesday afternoon looks to be the warmest of the forecast with Widespread 70s south of the SF Bay and in the interior North Bay, while the bay shoreline and Pacific coast see the upper 60s.

The Rex Block weakens and shifts east for Thursday, causing slight decreases in temperatures that day, and then increased onshore flow returns that night, leading to cooler temperatures for Friday and into the weekend.

Longer term model and ensemble guidance show a trough and front building in the Pacific and moving toward the coast into the weekend. Models are struggling with the depth of this trough, but some are showing that it's southward push will be enough to offer rain for the Bay Area along the cold front on Sunday or Monday. For now this rain doesn't look to be very impactful, and the spread of timing offered by the models hints that the time of arrival could be pushed further into the next work week.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 903 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period except for terminals in the North Bay and East Bay valleys that have seen patchy but dense fog develop in the vicinity of KSTS and KLVK the last few overnights into the morning hours.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with relatively light winds. Afternoon haze is expected to develop but not interfere with VFR conditions.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar as SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period. Weak onshore flow is expected to return toward the end of the TAF period, however any stratus development is expected to be limited.

Marine

(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 903 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

Hazardous marine conditions with moderate rough seas and a fresh to strong northerly breeze continue through Monday. Winds diminish by Monday afternoon and seas subside, becoming moderate, by Tuesday. Improved conditions continue through late week with seas to build starting Friday.

Beaches

Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PST Monday for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM PST Monday for CAZ506.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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