Issued at 748 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
After reviewing the latest high resolution model guidance, we have upgraded the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning for the coastal North Bay and the Marin Hills, with the valid time remaining the same (10 PM Wednesday night through 10 AM Thursday morning). This is where we have the highest confidence for wind gusts reaching 55 to 60 miles per hour, with gusts up to 70 mph possible at favored coastal and higher terrain locations. The Wind Advisory will remain in place for the rest of the Bay Area, but some of the high resolution models are also showing gusts reaching 55 to 60 mph extending further southward, most notably along the Pacific coast of San Mateo County. The night shift will re- evaluate the need for a High Wind Warning for this region during the overnight forecast update. We have bumped up the wind speeds for the coastal North Bay and the adjacent waters to better reflect the incoming guidance, the rest of the forecast remains unchanged.
DialH
, Issued at 127 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025 (This evening through Wednesday)
No major changes to the ongoing forecast, however the widespread coverage of mid/high level clouds may limit the amount of warming we see today. However, dry conditions prevail across the region as the ridge aloft shift southeast and begins to flatten ahead of our next storm system.
Tonight we are expecting the affects from a weak to moderate atmospheric river to begin in the coastal ranges of the Bay Area and then across the Central Coast by early Wednesday morning. This will be due to orographic lift as southerly winds increase. However, inland valleys will remain dry Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday will be the day we begin to see the full force of impacts across the entire region as southerly winds will continue to increase as the atmospheric river approaches with PWAT values up to 1.50". As for winds, we have issued a Wind Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday through 10 AM Thursday for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast for southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Wind gusts up to 55 mph are expected along the coast and in the higher elevations. Gusts have the potential to exceed 60 mph in the region's peaks, favored gaps, and passes.
..issued at 127 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025 (Wednesday night through next Monday)
By Wednesday night, a strong surface low will advance towards the Pacific Northwest while a trough approaches the West Coast. This will be the driving force that pushes this system through at a decent pace without stalling. As such, we are expecting the greatest rainfall totals from 4 AM Wednesday through 4 AM Friday to be in the coastal ranges where we expect to see 2-3" of rainfall (as these areas are expecting to pick up rainfall ahead of the main frontal system). Rainfall totals during the aforementioned time frame look to be around 1-2" in the higher terrain elsewhere in the region and the North Bay, 1-1.25" in the City of San Francisco, and generally less than 1" in the interior valleys and around the Monterey Bay region. There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall).
There remains less than a 20% chance of thunderstorms mainly early Thursday morning across the North Bay and Bay Area. These chances shift southward into the afternoon as the boundary shifts inland and to the south. The main concerns will be strong gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. In wake of the frontal boundary we are expecting post-frontal rain showers to continue through the remainder of Thursday and into Friday. Drier conditions return for Saturday. Lower confidence now moving toward this upcoming Sunday with respect to the trough previously forecast to approach the region. Temperatures look to lean below average and precipitation above average heading into the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 939 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
A break in the high level clouds is revealing stratus over the coastal waters moving inland. This is reflected with terminals showing cigs. The inland March of stratus could have dz or patchy fog too, esp HAF and STS. Expect this trend to continue overnight with IFR to MVFR conditions. Conditions improve briefly late morning into early afternoon before the next storm brings really gusty winds, lowering cigs, and heavy rain Wednesday night and Thursday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR yielding to MVFR cigs by AM rush. Cigs lift around 18Z as winds increase. Much stronger SE winds arrive for evening rush with AWW likely for early Thursday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Lower cigs have arrived and will remain overnight. Some lifting of cigs Wednesday before returning early Wednesday evening.
(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 939 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
A potent storm system will bring hazardous marine conditions beginning Wednesday evening. Light to gentle south breezes give way to Gale Force winds, with locally stronger Storm Force winds north of Point Reyes by Thursday morning. The strong winds, coupled with rapidly building Northwest swell, will produce hazardous seas across all waters. Winds ease Friday, but the larger swell continues to build with seas up to 15 feet before diminishing through the weekend. Mariners are urged to use caution and check current conditions before departing Wednesday evening and Thursday.
Ca, Wind Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ006-503-504-506-508>510-512>518-528>530.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ502-505.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Storm Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
