, Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (This evening through Thursday night)
Seasonally cool to seasonal temperatures continue through the remainder of today before a warming trend kicks off tomorrow. Upper level high pressure will continue to strengthen over the desert southwest as we head into Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm by 2-5 degrees across the interior with most locations reaching the mid to upper 80s. Far northern North Bay and East Bay may reach the low to mid 90s with the interior Central Coast reaching the upper 90s to low 100s. If you're looking for cooler weather, coastal areas and the bay shoreline will stay in the 60s to 70s. HeatRisk remains Minor for most of the region with patchy Moderate HeatRisk forecast across the far interior Central Coast. As temperatures start to rise again, make sure to take breaks in the shade and stay hydrated while outdoors. Diurnally breezy winds continue in the afternoon and evening with gusts between 20 to 30 mph possible in favored windy locations (Altamont Pass, Salinas Valley).
..issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday)
The warming trend continues through the extended forecast period as high pressure remains in place over the desert southwest. Interior high temperatures may fluctuate a degree or two each day but will generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. Hot spots in the far North Bay, East Bay, and Interior Central Coast will be in the upper 90s to low 100s. Coastal areas and the bay shoreline warm up slightly but will stay in the 70s (coast) to upper 70s/low 80s (bay shoreline). By late this weekend, the center of the upper level ridge will shift slightly northeastward over the Intermountain West where it will continue to strengthen heading into next week. Temperatures look to warm further early next week with Moderate HeatRisk forecast across portions of the Bay Area and higher elevations. Conditions do not currently meet Heat Advisory criteria but this may be reevaluated as we get closer in time.
Thunderstorms remain possible late this weekend into early next week as monsoonal moisture moves into California from the Gulf of California/Baja California. The moisture source remains good with PWATs in excess of 1", about 150-200% or normal for this time of year. The 700-500 mb lapse rates remain around 7 C/km which is decent. The question becomes how much instability (MUCAPE) we will have. Current models show isolated pockets of minimal MUCAPE across our region but this is by no means widespread or a substantial amount. Longer term models can sometimes struggle with instability across our region so we will be able to better assess this parameter as we move into the range of higher resolution/short term models. While we are still expecting little to no precipitation with this moisture surge, the ECMWF is showing the potential for some light rain (< 0.1") along the coast Sunday into Monday. Fire weather concerns remain if thunderstorms are able to develop with storms possible across the Bay Area and Central Coast. It is recommended to stay up to date on the forecast especially as we get into the range of higher resolution models and get a better idea of the overall setup.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 432 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026
The marine layer has compressed from about 1,500 feet yesterday to about 1,000 feet today. That brings good news and bad news for aviation weather. The good news is that the spatial and temporal stratus coverage will be reduced. The low clouds won't push as far inland or last as long. The bad news is that where ceilings do form, they will be closer to the ground. There is a good chance for IFR ceilings and even visibility impacts early Thursday morning, particularly where the winds ease overnight (looking at you, STS).
Vicinity of SFO, The clouds are currently banked up against the Peninsula mountains. It's hard to say if they will spill over the ridge like we saw the last couple days, or if they will have to fill in the Bay side first. If they can't get over the ridge, that would delay the onset by several hours and the terminal could stay scattered until 08Z or so in the best case scenario. On the other hand, the clouds could be there as soon as 02Z if they spill over, which is my best guess based on the current satellite loop and marine layer depth.
SFO Bridge Approach, With either scenario described above, the approach should stay clear several hours longer than the terminal before the ceiling arrives early Thursday morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals, With the shallower marine layer the ceilings should be 200-500 feet lower than last night, and there is an outside chance for visibility impacts if the winds die down more than expected at either MRY or SNS.
(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026
Northwest winds remain fresh to strong as embedded near gale force gusts increase into the weekend. Wind driven moderate seas (5-8 ft) build to rough (9-11 ft) this evening into the weekend paired with a long period southerly swell.
Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
