Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1015 am PDT Thu may 7 2026

Update

Issued at 914 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026

Low clouds are well entrenched into the valleys across the Bay Area and Central Coast this morning. We do have reduced visibilities in the North Bay and the Monterey Bay region with a marine layer between 1800-2000 feet in depth. Expecting low clouds to retreat to the coast by early afternoon with clearing skies inland. As a result, temperatures will warm into the low to upper 70s across much of the interior Bay Area, low to upper 80s across the interior Central Coast, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s in the northwest facing coastal locations thanks to the depth of the marine layer. The ongoing forecast remains on track at this time with no updates anticipated this morning.

RGass

Short Term

, Issued at 1124 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 (Tonight through Friday)

Low clouds are building inland from the coast, covering the bays and working their way into some of the interior valleys. Expect chances for pockets of fog overnight, with the strongest chances in the North Bay. Because of the marine layer's influence and the covering of stratus, overnight temperatures look fairly mild with most areas seeing lows in the 50s and upper 40s. Only far interior valleys and higher peaks will fall further into the 40s.

Thursday will see a slow erosion of the lower cloud cover, keeping certain areas on the cooler side compared to the areas that stay clear. Inland cloud cover will start clearing in the mid morning, however areas around the bays will keep cloud cover into the late morning and early afternoon. The immediate coast looks to keep cloud cover through the day with moderate to breezy winds, making for much cooler highs than the rest of the area. Expect highs around 60 degrees along the immediate coast, then the 60s and 70s for areas more inland, and into the 80s for areas not experiencing the morning cloud cover. A few areas in the far interior portions of Monterey Co look to break 90 degrees.

Thursday night will offer fairly similar conditions to what we're seeing tonight, but with an earlier inland push of coastal stratus. This will lead to low clouds filling around the SF Bay and Monterey Bay in the mid evening and will cause a quicker cool-down. The lower clouds and the marine layer influence look to go slightly farther inland. This wont have too much of an effect in morning lows, but will make some areas a slightly cooler for Friday as they linger into the late morning and early afternoon.

While most areas will see slightly cooler conditions for Friday, a ridge builds to the north,leading to a small increase in temperatures for the interior North Bay. This will get things back

Long Term

..issued at 1124 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

Friday night will continue to see the affects of the building ridge with a compression of the marine layer and a reduction in the overnight inland push of coastal stratus. Cloud cover will still be prevalent along the coast, but will struggle to enter the SF Bay and reach more of the inland areas.

The reduction of marine influence along with the building ridge calls for much more of the inland areas to break into the 80s for Saturday, while the coast sits in the low 60s, and the slightly inland areas stay in the 90s. A few of the more inland areas look to break into the mid 90s.

The reduction of the marine layer and building of the ridge continues into Monday, which looks to be the hottest day of the current forecast. Most of the interior valleys look to break into the 90s with widespread 80s for all but the near-coastal areas seeing the 60s and 70s. A building of a thermal belt will also call for much warmer lows on the higher peaks (60s and a few 70s) and will lead the peaks into the 90s as well from that warm start. Again the hottest area of the CWA looks to be interior Monterey Co, which will have a few spots looking to break 100 degrees.

The longer term forecast shows good cooling for Tuesday, yet things will stay on the warmer side as the ridge begins to flatten and push east. This will call for a slightly more zonal flow, leading to weak onshore winds into the mid week. The national blend of models looks to continue the steady cooling trend in the late week, but the latest batch of long term model updates are hinting more at another ridge building, which will warm things up again in the late week. The current forecast follows the blend, but as things continue to update, more considerations may need to be made for the potential warming trend.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1004 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026

IFR/MVFR cigs have persisted into mid-morning with better clearing trends apparent for the South Bay and Monterey terminal at TAF issuance (1720Z). North Bay and Bay Area terminals will likely have to wait until 19z-20z for low stratus to clear out, with VFR expected for the remainder of the day and early evening. A robust marine layer will produce a return of low stratus tonight through Friday morning with similar clearing times as today.

Vicinity of SFO, Low stratus is expected to clear out by early afternoon with VFR expected for the remainder of the day and early evening. Expect similar timing for MVFR/IFR cigs returning tonight through much of Friday morning with persistent onshore flow, which will be breezy at times late this afternoon and evening, along with a healthy marine layer.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar as SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Salinas Valley drainage is almost complete at KSNS with VFR expected for the remainder of the day and early evening. KMRY may hold on to IFR cigs into early afternoon, however recent satellite trends show potential for clearing out earlier. Expect similar timing of a return of low stratus cigs this evening through Friday morning, and for clearing times as well.

Marine

(today through Tuesday) Issued at 914 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest winds will continue to increase through the day becoming strong tonight and continue strong through the weekend along with steadily building seas that will also persist through the weekend, and into the beginning of next week for our outer waters.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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