, Issued at 120 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025 (This evening through tonight)
Showers remain confined to interior areas of San Bentio County as of this writing. By this afternoon and evening there will be chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the North Bay and Central Coast with potential for rain showers elsewhere across the Bay Area. This is as MUCAPE values reach up to 500 J/kg across the Central Coast this afternoon and North Bay this evening and into early Friday morning. The CAMs (Convection-Allowing Models) also show indications of this.
Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to range from the mid 60s near the coast to mid 70s across the warmer interior locations. Tonight, temperatures will cool into the upper 40s across the interior Central Coast and North Bay valleys with 50s elsewhere.
..issued at 1254 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025 (Friday through Wednesday)
The strong upper level low will move through the state through Friday, with drier conditions across the region with the moisture having moved off to our south. A strong pressure gradient over the Bay Area and Central Coast will enhance northwesterly winds across the region, with wind gusts reaching 25 to 35 mph at the immediate coast, within the Salinas Valley, and through favored gaps and passes across the region. Wind Advisories may prove necessary if confidence in more widespread gusty winds increases. Temperatures will be around the same as today for the Bay Area with a drop expected in the Central Coast, with the southern Monterey Bay region and northern Salinas Valley seeing highs in the lower to middle 60s, while the warmest locations in southern Monterey County reach highs in the lower to middle 70s.
The weekend features a warmup as the upper level low moves off into the Great Basin. High temperatures range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s in the inland valleys, the lower to middle 70s close to the Bays, and the middle to upper 60s along the Pacific coast. A surface high will develop in the northern Rockies, setting up the possibility for moderate offshore flow Saturday through Monday. These would usually raise fire weather concerns, but the antecedent rainfall and the limited strength of the offshore flow will mitigate the risk. The latest update of the PGE-WRF model shows the SFO-WMC gradient reaching -2 to -6 mb, which will cause some offshore flow, but keep it from being strong enough to warrant any critical fire weather threats.
Beyond Monday, upper level troughing is expected to persist over the western United States, at least through the middle part of next week. CPC outlooks lean towards temperatures and precipitation totals near the seasonal average into the middle part of October.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Lower clouds are scattering with lingering light showers beginning to exit the region. Expect mid-level clouds to prevail into the afternoon but push east and south into the late afternoon and evening. The afternoon brings moderate to breezy west winds that last into the mid evening and early night before becoming light again. Lower clouds build along the coast and the Monterey Bay, with MVFR CIGs expected. These CIGs filter into the SF Bay later into the night and STS gains IFR CIGs. Friday afternoon sees CIGS begin to erode for all but the immediate coast.
Vicinity of SFO, Scattered low clouds with overcast mid-level clouds continue into the mid afternoon but push east as breezy west winds arrive. Winds become less breezy and reduce into the early night with MVFR CIGs filling over the terminal into early Friday. Expect these CIGs to exit into the late morning on Friday as moderate winds build.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Light showers are dissipating and CIGs are starting to rise. Expect more moderate winds along with low clouds eroding into the mid afternoon, but mid-level clouds will linger. Expect winds to reduce into the evening as MVFR CIGs fill over the terminals. Light winds and CIGs last into the late morning and early afternoon on Friday.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1234 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Lingering shower activity stays in the souther waters through the day and into the night. Winds increase into the late night and through Friday, causing widespread hazardous conditions for small craft. These winds will support rough wind waves up to 10 feet through the weekend.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
