Issued at 747 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
Patches of stratus around Monterey Bay and the western San mateo Peninsula should steadily dissipate through the morning with clear skies through the day. The main forecast issue today will be refining the strengthening winds across the region starting tomorrow through the weekend, as an inside slider pattern develops with an upper level low tracking from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. In particular, the need for any wind or surf products over the weekend will be investigated.
DialH
, Issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026 (Today and tonight)
Not much in the way of cloud cover overnight with only two little blips of clouds, but even those are fading. One of the main things at play here driving the clear skies - sfc pressure gradients. SFO- ACV is near -6mb, which is standard rule of thumb to keep stratus outside of SF Bay/SFO. SFO-WMC is near 2mb and is forecast to become negative by sunrise with a stronger offshore component and not just northerly.
For Thursday day, given warming 850mb temps, rising H5, and offshore flow expect a gradual warm up under sunny skies. About a 5 to 10 deg warm up over Wednesday and trending above normal for mid-May. Highs will be 60s/70s bays/coast and 80s to near 90 inland. Will say offshore flow does ease through the day and expect onshore to kick in again with an afternoon onshore gusty push.
Thursday night - onshore flow lingers at the immediate sfc, but higher elevations begin to shift offshore again with drier air working in. Could see some patchy coastal stratus, but a solid marine layer is looking less likely.
..issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
Friday will feature one additional day of warming as temps tick upwards a few more degrees. Still above normal, but nothing too crazy and HeatRisk remains Minor. The bigger story for Friday will be the winds. SFO-ACV gradient ramps again and this time near -7mb. That will bring some very gusty winds over the coastal waters making for a hazardous marine environment. Additionally, winds increase along the immediate coast and the higher terrain.
Over the weekend winds remain high and get a helping hand from a passing upper level trough through the PacNw/NorCal. This feature also pauses the warming trend for Sat/Sun. The passing trough finally deepens into a low Sun/Mon across the Great Basin. Pattern recognition shows this is decent for offshore push by early Monday. Hi-res guidance ramps up the SFO-WMC gradient to -11mb. That will translate to weakening N-S winds along the coast and coastal waters and increasing winds over the N Bay Mts and E Bay Hills. Borderline for Wind Adv Sun night/Mon AM as winds look to remain over the higher peaks. It goes with out saying that the offshore flow will leading to warming temps early next week. Still not buying the NBM output for max temps, but a return to the 80s near 90 is plausible. Will likely be warmer at the coast too with the offshore flow influence.
Last but not least, interior and higher terrain areas will see a noticeable drop in RH beginning Thursday and lasting into next week. The combo of bursts of wind (N-S and Offshore flow) and low RH will lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Latest Energy Release Component (ERC) charts show an upward trend toward critical levels for mid-May. These charts are taking into account temp/rh, but not wind.
Recapping - roller coaster for temperatures the next few days. Winds increase and remain impactful over the coastal waters and land. RH will decrease both day and night with a marked drying trend.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1101 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase by early afternoon before diminishing late in the evening and overnight. The greatest potential for sub-VFR conditions will be along coastal sites (HAF & MRY) late this evening and into early Friday morning. Elsewhere, high confidence of VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Onshore winds increase once again Friday afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. High confidence of onshore winds increasing this afternoon and will persist through late evening before diminishing slightly overnight and into Friday morning. Gusts are likely to exceed 30 kt this afternoon and into early evening. Onshore winds will once again increase Friday afternoon and evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Weaker onshore winds this afternoon compared to SFO. Otherwise, similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. High confidence of onshore winds increasing this afternoon and will persist through early evening before diminishing into Friday morning. Moderate confidence for sub- MVFR conditions to develop around 05Z at MRY late tonight and potentially lower to LIFR around 09Z Friday with SNS a TEMPO group from 12Z-16Z (IFR). Conditions are likely to return to VFR by mid-to- late morning on Friday.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 1101 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
Hazardous marine conditions have become widespread with gale force winds affecting the northern waters into Thursday afternoon. Gale-force gusts winds become widespread Friday morning and continue to gain strength over the weekend. Locally stronger gusts will be possible along some of the coastal jets where storm force winds will be possible. The strong winds will drive seas between 12 to 19 feet. Winds peak on Sunday and reduce steadily into the next work week.
Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
Strong winds build Friday and peak over the weekend over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the spray and sand.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
