, Issued at 210 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025 (This evening through Monday)
Marine layer more solidly in place today as the weak offshore gradient reverses to weak onshore. Still some airmass compression going on with weak ridging in place in the wake of last week's system. Decided not to make any adjustments to high temps today in the North Bay despite persistent cloud cover keeping things cooler. There is some signal that they will mix out rapidly this afternoon and temps rebound a bit. Probably still remaining a bit cooler than forecast though. Tonight and tomorrow are basically persistence forecasts (copy/paste) with the weak ridge prevailing and 500 mb heights basically staying stagnant.
..issued at 210 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025 (Monday night through next Saturday)
If you've read the discussion for the past few days, you already know what's going on. It's a frustrating pattern, but one very important to keep an eye on. No noteworthy changes to the forecast today, so I'll give a general recap of what we're looking at. Very quiet through this week with a gradual warming trend as we go. Seriously, it's going to be a great week, weather-wise. However, by the end of the week things change pretty aggressively in the general upper level flow pattern. Still looking at a very deep upper low diving south into the Western US as a result of a very high amplitude ridge building up into NW Canada and Alaska. Ensemble guidance has come to a better agreement that we'll likely see the windy and dry side of this system. What are the impacts and when do they start? A bit too early to tell exactly the magnitude and location of the impacts, but right now it looks like we'll potentially start to see offshore winds increasing in the North Bay by the end of this forecast period, late Saturday.
Confidence in impacts will undoubtedly increase through the coming days, so be sure to keep up with the forecast for the most up to date information.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025
A mix bag of LIFR to MVFR conditions across much of the region this morning before conditions return to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Expecting weak onshore flow to develop by this afternoon becoming light and variable into Monday morning. Moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings to develop around the Monterey Bay terminals late this evening and Bay Area terminals early Monday morning. Greater confidence for the North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals to see LIFR/IFR conditions Monday morning before conditions return to VFR by Monday afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, MVFR currently, expected to return to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Onshore winds increase slightly during the afternoon before diminishing early Monday morning. Moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings to return early Monday morning before clearing by late morning or early afternoon. Onshore winds increase once again Monday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR conditions are expected to return late this morning and prevail through this evening before MVFR ceilings return. Ceilings and/or visibilities lower to LIFR/IFR early Monday morning with winds becoming light and variable.
(today through Friday) Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025
Moderate seas will persist through Sunday night with hazardous marine conditions. Seas then gradually ease through the middle of the week with gentle to moderate northerly breezes. Winds begin to increase along with building seas by the end of the week into next weekend.
Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
