Issued at 855 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026
The short term forecast is in good shape with just a few passing high clouds anticipated during the overnight hours. Winds remain elevated at this hour, though speeds continue to diminish. Clear skies and a dry airmass should promote ideal radiational cooling, however, this won't be the case everywhere. Across the North Bay, sufficient winds just above the surface may be sufficient to keep the PBL coupled with the free atmosphere. As such, overnight temperatures are forecast to be several degrees greater than what was observed this morning. In fact, 24 hour temperature departures are anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees greater than this time yesterday. Across the Central Coast, however, winds are much lighter and with the persistent offshore flow drying things out, temperatures here will likely crater into the mid 30s. At this time, the areal coverage needed for any type of Cold Weather headline seems marginal (though it is close). As such, we'll continue to monitor and mention the potential here in the AFD.
, Issued at 150 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 (This evening through Saturday)
All focus remains on the warm up over the weekend. High pressure is dominating the Eastern Pacific while an upper trough and cutoff low linger across the desert Southwest and Southern California. This pattern is having a two fold affect on the Bay Area and Central Coast forecast. First is the broad area of high pressure over the East Pacific. While typically a summertime pattern, it is having summerlike influences on our early spring time. Under this pattern we expect clear skies and warming conditions. This pattern also sets up winds out of the North along the coast. When this happens the area can experience coastal upwelling of cooler subsurface water. In turn this can lead to sea/land breeze circulation as well as some low clouds and fog to form in the lowest layers in the late day and overnight hours. The surface high pressure is being analyzed by the ocean prediction center at 1037 mb, which is a decently stout high for March. The second item is that of the upper trough/cutoff low. This is more of a wind steering items than anything else. When this pattern sets up, adjacent to the high pressure over the East Pacific, it takes the winds that would normally come from the North and veers them toward the Northeast. This means we can get a bit more offshore flow across the region. Offshore winds can bring adiabatic warming (downsloping) for many portions of the area.
This pattern over the weekend will bring the warmth that is associated with a strong area of high pressure combine with offshore winds will cause temperatures for Saturday and Sunday to run anywhere from about 10-20 degrees above normal. Models typically handle this pattern decently well, but can run a few degrees too cool at times. Looking at the ensemble envelope we leaned more towards the 75th percentile of the NBM, but did this with the NBM EXP. The place that models do not handle well in this pattern is San Francisco. This is for a few reasons, but the biggest is being a small piece of land surrounded by water on three sides. We look at wind direction carefully to give us an idea of what will happen in SF during these pattern and Saturday morning (some degree Sunday morning) will see winds at 925 mb from the Northeast at about 30 knots. So far models have been a little weak on the 925 winds. Even so, with 30 knots and a coupled atmosphere, high temperatures for SF on Saturday have a good probability (greater than 70%) of exceeding 80 degrees in a few locations. No models will pick this up and forecast was manually adjusted to account for this. The piece to watch will the minimum temperatures for early Saturday and Sunday morning. If we start near 60 degrees in SF, it is almost a sure bet that SF will pop into the low to mid 80s. If we do it again on Sunday morning, the pattern is similar enough that we could pop again for a short time on Sunday.
Everyone else around the Bay Area, rest assured, you were not forgotten. Numerical models handle your locations better than they handle SF. In short, it's going to be a warm weekend.
..issued at 150 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
By the time we get late into the weekend and into early next week, the pattern will shift. The stout high will retreat farther offshore, the upper trough over the Southwest will pinch off into a cutoff low over Northern Baja, and a bagginess in the jet stream will start to encroach upon the Northern portions of our service area. This will be short lived though as high pressure starts to reassert itself during the middle of next week. Model really start to diverge late next week with a few going back to a trough and bringing the area a chance of rain and several others holding on to the ridge and maintaining the string of sunny days. As we get through the weekend we'll have more to say about late next week.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026
VFR is forecast to prevail at all TAFs over the next 24 to 30 hours. A corridor of stronger winds aloft is forecast between 09Z-15Z across the North Bay. As surface winds continue to subside, the potential for LLWS will increase. Currently, KSTS stands the best chance as the core of the strongest winds aloft stretch from NW to SE. 1-2 hours of LLWS are possible at KAPC, but confidence isn't high enough to include. The LLWS potential is low, but non-zero at KOAK and KHAF. Otherwise, N'ly to NE'ly winds will increase some through the day on Saturday, but speeds are anticipated to remain less than 20 knots. Occasional gusts to above 25 knots cannot be ruled out, but the frequency precludes mention in the TAFs at this time.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with WNW'ly winds becoming N'ly to NE'ly through the day on Saturday. NE'ly winds may persist a little longer than typical, but speeds are anticipated to remain below 10 knots. A very weak sea-breeze may attempt to progress eastward by late in the day, but confidence is low to medium. Winds should become WNW'ly after the passage around 21Z Saturday. Speeds are still expected to remain below 10 knots, with an occasional gust to 20 knots.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR conditions with a SE wind between 5-7kts are expected through the morning at KMRY. Around 16Z Saturday, a light easterly flow between 4-6 kts will push through before switching back to the NW onshore flow that we've been seeing the past few days.
VFR is also expected at KSNS though there is low confidence on the wind direction in the beginning and end of the TAF period. However, there is high confidence that the winds will remain very light between 1-3 kts until 00Z Saturday. The winds will pick up slightly and shift to the NW around 5-7 kts before becoming variable and light again around 03Z.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 855 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026
Hazardous marine conditions are forecast to persist through the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. While winds abate through this time, seas will remain elevated near or just above 10 feet. Seas and winds will subside on Sunday before elevating on Monday. Strong northerly breezes and rough to very rough seas are forecast.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
