, Issued at 118 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 (Today and tonight)
Today's forecast attention turns 300 miles southwest of Point Conception where a low pressure system is bringing up to a 15% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms Wednesday across the Central Coast. This has the potential to be a low probability/high impact scenario and will bring near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon through Thursday early morning across Monterey and San Benito Counties. So far, lightning has remained confined to the circulation with mid-to-high level clouds beginning to stream in. An upstream upper-level trough, mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 degrees C/km creating sufficient MUCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg, and PWATs in excess of one inch are the thunderstorm ingredients. Confidence is lowest in the lift/trigger as guidance/models are struggling with the circulation and cutoff lows are notorious to forecast due to their independence from the jet stream. Uncertainty lies in what these two features will do when they collide, including track and potential dry air entrainment which would lower rain shower/thunderstorm chances. With moisture confined to the mid-to- upper-levels and a dry slot in the low levels, DCAPE values of 500- 1000 J/kg will be capable of producing erratic/gusty outflow winds of 35-45 mph with any rain showers/thunderstorms that develop. The main concern is lightning which will pose the risk for new fire starts and has the potential to hinder operations on the Timber Fire. Smoke from the Timber Fire will continue to be transported into the Central Coast via light southwesterly winds. The smell and appearance of smoke will be the worst under the inversion at night and in the morning. Sensible weather wise, the cooling and moistening trend will continue through Friday with temperatures well below normal and a deep marine layer bringing a chance of drizzle. Minor coastal flooding is expected during the highest high tide (evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning.
..issued at 118 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)
Cooling and moistening trend continues through Friday as global ensemble clusters are in agreement that upper-level troughing will remain over the West Coast. By the weekend, heights will begin to rise as upper-level ridging builds in from the Southeast while simultaneously a cutoff low develops off the Pacific Northwest. Sensible weather wise, this will result in a gradual warming trend and an increase in onshore flow; however, temperatures will remain below normal.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Another day, another marine layer. Stratus is making its way out of the remaining terminals and will retreat to the coastline for the rest of the day. VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon. Onshore winds, generally from the southwest, become moderate (10-15 kt) this afternoon across the majority of TAF sites. Winds remain around 7-10 kt overnight with mid to upper level clouds passing overhead. A deeper marine layer will make a push inland tonight likely impacting all sites with medium confidence on the exact arrival. Relied on persistence in terms of timing for locations that have gotten a ceiling the past few nights. A mixed bag of IFR and MVFR ceilings are forecast across the region with medium confidence for STS to go LIFR. Ceilings are expected to clear late Thursday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with mid to high level clouds present. Onshore winds increase through the afternoon with the potential for occasional gusts up to 25-27 kt. SW winds remain breezy overnight with the marine layer expected to impact both OAK and SFO with MVFR ceilings shortly after midnight. Clouds are expected to scatter out later tomorrow morning, around 18-19Z.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Smoke and haze from the nearby fire will still be prevalent today. Currently monitoring the potential for lightning from high-based thunderstorms nearby the airports, though confidence is too low to include in the TAF. Will update and amend as needed throughout the day. Gusty SW winds are expected at MRY meanwhile SNS remains more NW with a lower chance for gusts. Stratus is expected to bring low-end MVFR ceilings to both terminals before sunset tonight and persist into late Thursday morning.
(today through Monday) Issued at 525 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue into early Thursday with for the northern outer waters. Isolated near gale gusts will continue through Wednesday morning. Seas will be rough and around 9 to 11 feet, with wave heights slowly subsiding through Thursday. Long period southerly swell will gradually increase late in the week, peaking between 16 to 18 seconds late Friday through early Sunday. Expect haze and smoke to limit visibility at times along the Big Sur coast due to the Timber fire.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
