Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

409 pm PST Tue Nov 25 2025

Short Term

, Issued at 120 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025 (This evening through Wednesday)

Low clouds persist over the North Bay and East Bay, yet are forecast to begin clearing later this afternoon. However, if they do not, temperatures will be cooler than currently forecast by up to 10 degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures are forecast to reach into the 60s across most inland areas while the immediate coastal areas of the North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula remain in the mid-to-upper 50s.

As offshore flow persist in the higher elevations across the region, the marine layer remains compressed. Thus, there is greater probability for less coverage of fog overnight. However, still expecting patchy to areas of dense fog across the North Bay valleys, East Bay valleys, and the Santa Clara Valley overnight. Temperatures overnight are forecast to be mostly in the 40s with the coldest interior spots potentially lowering into the upper 30s.

As the ridge axis shifts eastward into southern California, temperatures will continue to warm on Wednesday. This is when we are expecting temperatures across the interior Central Coast, Santa Cruz area, southern Santa Clara and Hollister valleys, and far inland North Bay valleys to reach or exceed 70 degrees F. These temperatures will be up to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Again, similar to today, areas that do not see afternoon sunshine will likely be a few to several degrees cooler.

Long Term

..issued at 120 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

On Thursday, an upper level trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest brining unsettled weather to that area. Locally, we are forecast to see similar temperatures as Wednesday for daytime highs. By Friday, this feature will shift into the northern part of the Intermountain West, thus cooling temperatures to near seasonal averages as a weak, dry back door cold front sweeps across the Bay Area and Central Coast. A reinforcing trough will drop out of British Columbia and act as an inside slider setup as in drops southward across the Intermountain West. This would lead to gusty offshore winds across our region. However, exact details reamin difficult to pin down at this time as there remains uncertainty this far out. Be sure to check back and keep up-to-date with the latest forecast information.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 409 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025

Currently VFR everywhere except STS where localized overcast conditions are continuing to clear. Moderate confidence that fog will return tonight with visibilities as low as 1/4SM. The most likely airports to receive fog are STS, APC, and LVK with SFO, OAK, and SJC having slightly lower chances. Guidance does show some drier air mixing in overnight but current thinking is that offshore flow will advect fog from the Central Valley into the East Bay and up the delta. Kept the general timing the same as in the 18Z TAFs but added in at least temporary fog to SJC and SNS. General clearing is expected by mid to late morning but may see fog lingering slightly longer across the North Bay Valleys.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR with MVFR conditions overnight. Low to moderate confidence that fog will push into the SF Bay and reach SFO. If fog does extend to SFO it is most likely to be between 10Z- 17Z with VFR conditions returning after that time. Winds generally stay offshore but shift back onshore towards the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR with some potential for fog to develop at SNS early tomorrow morning. Winds stay light at MRY through the TAF period but breezy drainage flow is expected to develop at SNS during the morning hours. Winds generally switch more offshore overnight and remain offshore through the rest of the TAF period.

Marine

(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 409 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025

High pressure over off the California Coast will maintain gentle to moderate northerly breezes through mid week. Patchy dense fog will be possible again Tuesday night, especially in the bays. Seas will gradually ease through the middle of the week. Winds will begin to increase again late week, building moderate to rough seas.

Beaches

Issued at 923 AM PST Tue Nov 25 2025

The Beach Hazards Statement has been allowed to expire at 10 AM. While the statement expires, the surf zone will be energetic today so still use caution if you're visiting beaches.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, None.

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