, Issued at 122 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 (This evening through Monday)
Not much change from the prior forecast, as the first round of rain showers traverse cross the North Bay. Rainfall amounts so far, as of 12:30pm range from 0.0-0.17" for the valleys of Sonoma County and between 0.15-0.55" for the mountains with the higher amounts being found across the coastal side. Showers will linger through at least the evening hours, before lifting north into Eureka's service area overnight hours. Showers may skirt by the North Bay on Monday, but the more likely scenario is that rain holds off until late Monday evening or into the overnight hours. That means much of the region will be left with partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 60s for most of the region, perhaps the low 70s for the valleys of the South Bay and interior Central Coast.
..issued at 122 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
The bulk of the rain will arrive on Tuesday, as a surface low sets up and taps into moisture from the southwest/tropics. This will bring periods of rain and gusty winds on Tuesday, with chances for rain dwindling late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. PWATs across the region look to be between 1.2-1.4", which combined with orographic lift may lead to some heavier bands of rain and nuisance flooding across the North Bay or San Francisco Peninsula and into the Santa Cruz Mountains. Valleys may be rainshadow a bit in these regions, with rainfall amounts decreasing as you move south and into the Central Coast. In terms of thunderstorm chances, they look to be null as CAPE is either extremely low or zero depending on the model, and lapse rates are stable.
As we begin to dry out on Wednesday, upper level ridging builds in from the south and will take hold of the forecast. A warming and drying trend begins on Thursday and continues into the weekend. Ensembles show ridging holding, but a low developing in the Eastern Pacific, perhaps trying skirt over or push it eastward by the beginning of March. PoP chances are low, but still reflect that non zero, more like 10-20% chance of rain. The CPC outlook for this period favors the drier scenario with leaning below normal (33-50%) chances for rain and likely above normal (60-80%) chances for above normal temperatures.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 352 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
It's VFR with exception of low clouds /MVFR-IFR/ and light rain across Sonoma County. Forecast is near persistence tonight with a drying trend returning to Sonoma County Monday then rain redevelops over the North Bay and spreads southward Monday night and Tuesday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Southwest wind 12 knots becoming light southeasterly to easterly tonight and Monday. Light southwest wind redevelops Monday evening with vicinity showers.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Onshore winds 10 knots becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 knots tonight and Monday morning. Winds shifting to onshore 5 to 10 knots Monday afternoon.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 342 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
Southerly winds and seas diminish across the coastal waters except across the far northwestern waters. Rain chances continue across the northern waters then spread farther south Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds and seas increase Tuesday then ease by Wednesday.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
