, Issued at 1220 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025 (This evening through Saturday)
There almost isn't a cloud in the sky across our entire 11 county warning area this afternoon. Light offshore flow and large scale subsidence are paving the way for fair weather through at least the next 24 hours. Saturday looks like it'll be a copy/paste from today with the only exception being marine stratus filling in along the coastline Saturday evening.
..issued at 1220 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
Not much change in the long term today. Continued cool temps within a degree or two of normal through the rest of the weekend and early part of next week. High confidence in a broad ridge over the western US into Thanksgiving, which would allow fair weather to persist and result in a very gradual warming trend by a few degrees into late week. Probably not even noticeable by most. Looking at the end of the period is where we find our next interesting weather feature. Long term ensemble guidance continues to advertise a very deep, closed upper low digging into the SW US from Canada. At this point, the spread of model solutions diverges so much that it's not worth trying to pin down anything specific at this point. Possibilities range from a very prolific rain maker to a nothing burger with light offshore winds again. What's the take-away here? Confidence is high that there will be a strong storm system digging its way into the Western US sometime around next weekend. Confidence is very low regarding where it'll set up and how much it'll dig to the SW. One other feature that has been persistent in model solutions is a very high amplitude ridge over the eastern Pacific up into AK and northwest Canada. This reinforces the signal that there will be a deep upper low downstream over the western US. Be sure to stay tuned to the forecast over the next few days as details on this system become more clear.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 345 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025
It's warmer and drier per 24 hour trends, supporting high confidence VFR forecast for the evening. For tonight and Saturday morning VFR continues at most terminals, however longer night-time radiative cooling hours and residual boundary layer humidity may combine to produce fog patches, possibly including dense fog /VLIFR-IFR/. The WMC-SFO pressure gradient and nocturnal cool/cold air drainage winds support east to southeast winds which may also transport dense tule fog from the Central Valley to portions of the East Bay late tonight and Saturday morning. Patchy morning fog Saturday, otherwise VFR.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Mainly light and variable wind tonight and Saturday morning, becoming west 5 to 10 knots Saturday afternoon and evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light southeast tonight and Saturday morning then west near 10 knots Saturday afternoon.
(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 336 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025
High pressure will build in from the northwest through early next week. While winds continue to diminish, hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend as seas will remain moderate. Elevated seas will be prolonged by the arrival of long period northwesterly swell.
Issued at 919 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
