, Issued at 1147 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026 (Thursday through Thursday night)
Cloud cover will increase through the day as a cold front approaches from the northwest. FROPA will occur this afternoon into this evening from northwest to southeast. The standard wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly will occur pre and post-frontal, respectively, with gusts up to 25 mph to be expected. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected through terrain favored gaps and passes such as The Delta, Altamont Pass, and Pacheco Pass, as well as down the Salinas Valley. For the North Bay, rainfall totals up to 0.25" with locally higher amounts up to 0.75" in the higher terrain are expected. South of the Golden Gate Bridge, less than 0.10" is expected with accumulation favoring the coast and higher terrain with the help of orographic lift. Overperformance is still a possibility with the struggles of guidance/models in the early season. While rainfall is expected to be beneficial, wet roadways will create slick driving conditions and increase stopping distance. With ample low-level moisture and post-frontal clearing, the marine layer will try to reform tonight. As a result, patchy fog/stratus will be possible for the Friday morning commute.
..issued at 1147 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
The most impactful weather phenomenon Friday through Monday will be hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches. Two sets of long period southerly swell from distant Hurricane Karina and Hurricane Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. With pleasant sensible weather expected, these are the type of days that are most deadly; with it being the Labor Day holiday weekend, that will likely only make matters worse. If you want an outdoor activity this weekend, hit the trails instead of the beach. There's good agreement through the weekend that there will be an upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest which will keep our region under the influence of troughing. As such, expect below normal temperatures and onshore flow to continue with the return of the marine layer. The forecast is now dry this weekend with the farther west track of Marie and dry air filtering in from the northwest. Uncertainty arrives Monday in terms of low versus trough, but global ensemble clusters are in agreement that the pattern becomes progressive again as the low begins to fill and move east. This will allow for ridging to build in from the Desert Southwest, kicking off the gradual warming and drying trend. It is now looking likely that at least some of Marie's remnant moisture will eventually be brought into our area as soon as Tuesday. Whether this transpires as clouds or rainfall will be dependent on the reinforcing low/trough and the strength of the flanking ridges. Right now, the official forecast has light rainfall Tuesday through Thursday favoring the Central Coast.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 1014 PM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026
The front is working its way through the Bay Area and into the Central Coast, with light rain being reported at the terminals around San Francisco. North Bay counties have dried out, leaving behind it clearing skies and mainly VFR conditions. The question for tonight will be, do we continue to clear or will be get some pockets of sunrise stratus and fog after the front passes? The latest guidance leans towards the latter with stratus and fog developing around sunrise and eroding a few hours after that. VFR conditions then look to prevail through the forecast period. Medium confidence in the forecast.
Vicinity of SFO, The front is here while writing the AFD and light rain is being observed around the San Francisco Bay terminals along with MVFR cigs. Expect these conditions to linger through the next few hours, with rain chances diminishing as the front moves south. The question for these KSFO and KOAK will be, does the stratus last. Guidance seems to be the most bullish here with cigs flirting around SF Bay. Opted keep the pessimistic forecast in, though it might be more of a TEMPO situation or just outside of the range rings. Conditions for sure look to improve around and after sunrise, with VFR conditions prevailing during the day. Onshore winds pick up mid to late afternoon, with sustained speeds around 12-15kt and gusts up to 22-25kt through sunset.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Low clouds are lingering around Monterey Bay, with high clouds passing overhead as the front arrives. Lower clouds should make it to KMRY and KSNS later tonight, with perhaps even some VCSH or -SHRA for a few hours seeing how well the cold front has held up. MVFR to potentially IFR cigs will be possible as the front passes through, with conditions gradually improving behind it.
(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1014 PM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Rain chances will continue to diminish tonight, with gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes expected in wake of the frontal passage. Diurnal fresh to strong gusts return within the Monterey Bay, the Big Sur Coast, and near Point Reyes Friday into the weekend. Widespread fresh to strong gusts return by early next week across the coastal waters, decreasing to moderate to fresh breezes by midweek. Long period southerly swell associated with tropical activity well to our south will reach the coastal waters Friday and continue into early next week.
Issued at 1010 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect Friday-Monday as the swell from both Hurricane Marie and Hurricane Karina reaches the coast. As these hurricane whip up the ocean, the waves travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM PDT Friday through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, None.
