Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

651 pm PST Sun Nov 1 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026 (This evening through Monday night)

An upper level low and associated cold front worked its way through the region this morning. Behind it a mix of Sun and clouds, with cool temperatures peaking in the 60s for interior valley locations, upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, and mid 50s to low 60s in the hills and mountains. As the sunsets, cumulus clouds should dissipate and onshore winds will ease. Guidance tonight shows high clouds moving in, which makes the forecast a bit interesting. Current thinking is that these will roll in and limit radiational cooling and radiational fog development. Kept the shot for patchy fog in the forecast for the interior valleys of the Bay Area, but it will be dependent on cloud cover and winds. High pressure continues to build in on Monday which will lead to slightly warmer temperatures and dry weather.

Long Term

..issued at 234 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)

A quick moving shortwave trough will bring light rain to Bay Area and Santa Cruz on Tuesday, with perhaps some showers making into northern Monterey and San Benito counties. Rainfall amounts look to be light and generally around 0.15-0.40" for the North Bay, and 0.05- 0.25" for the San Francisco Peninsula, East Bay, and Santa Cruz, and around 0.0-0.10" for Santa Clara County. south of that amounts in Monterey and San Benito are generally a couple hundredths of an inch or less. Once the this shortwave moves through, we'll see a mix of zonal flow and ridging builds behind it. This will lead to a warming and drying trend through the week.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

VFR and patchy fog /IFR-LIFR/ is forecast for the 00z TAFs. High clouds also moving in from the west tonight and Monday.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR. West to northwest wind 10 knots decreasing and becoming light southeasterly to easterly early Monday morning. West wind 5 knots redeveloping by early Monday evening.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Onshore winds becoming southeasterly 5 to 7 knots tonight and Monday morning. Winds onshore near 10 knots Monday afternoon and early evening.

Marine

(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 644 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds will continue with some fresh to strong gusts lingering through the evening. Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected and will ease from north to south. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will prevail, building to become rough in the outer waters Tuesday into Wednesday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM PST Monday through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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