Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

900 pm PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Update

Issued at 857 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Low stratus clouds are slowly progressing onshore along portions of the North Bay, SF Peninsula, and around the Monterey Bay. Expect clouds to fill in around the remainder of the coastal Bay Area and Central Coast overnight with patchy fog possible as well. This is well represented in the current forecast and more information about it is included in the discussion below. No changes necessary this evening.

Synopsis

Issued at 134 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Dry weather conditions will prevail through Thursday with a gradual cooling trend. Expect periods of night time and morning low clouds in the favored coastal and valley locations. Then, unsettled conditions are projected to return by Friday and into the weekend.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 446 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Currently VFR across the board. Fog is exclusively forecast for STS with stratus forecast for the rest of the terminals. There is moderate-high confidence that all terminals will see some form of flight category reduction within the TAF period, with tonight generally looking to be more of a ceiling restrictor than a visibility restrictor. The signal tonight is quite similar to the signal from last night; however, since models/guidance did not handle last night's scenario well, forecast tonight is less bullish and more conservative while leaning on persistence. Widespread VFR will prevail by tomorrow afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly flow. Stratus will impact the terminal from the late hours of tonight into the mid-morning hours of Tuesday. The westerly wind direction during this time will facilitate a favorable environment for stratus to be fed through the San Bruno Gap. Breezy westerly winds will prevail tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly flow at both terminals. Stratus will impact the terminals overnight and into the mid-morning hours with MRY becoming IFR and SNS becoming MVFR. Breezy W/NW winds return to the terminals by mid- morning tomorrow.

Marine

(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 446 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

High pressure over the region will continue the pattern of fair and sunny weather through at least mid Thursday. Winds out of the northwest and light to moderate through at least Wednesday. Come late Thursday, chances of light rain begin initially over the northern waters and winds turn to become more westerly. Through the day Friday, rain begins to slowly move southward. Moderate NW swell gives way to a new longer period NW swell train late today.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, none. Pz, none.

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