, Issued at 1214 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night)
Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches continues today. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. Stay off the beach and remain out of the water to mitigate your risk. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during high tide this evening for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay in Marin County. The warming and drying trend has already commenced with conditions notably warmer and drier than they were 24 hours ago. High pressure will build in from the east tomorrow, peaking Wednesday and Thursday. Uncertainty in the forecast stems from Marie's moisture. Fortunately from a fire weather standpoint, the mid-level moisture and associated rain/thunderstorm chances are expected to remain confined to our south and west. However, associated high-level clouds are expected to stream in Tuesday into Wednesday which could make highs lower and lows higher due to decreased solar insolation and radiational cooling, respectively. We aren't even going to have the marine layer to save us this heat event. Reason being, flow aloft has an easterly component as it wraps into Marie. If we miraculously get any sort of marine layer, expect it to be compressed below 500 feet which would bring dense fog to coastal locations. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all areas and will run from 10AM Wednesday through 10PM Thursday. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with minimal onshore flow. There are high probabilities for moderate and even major HeatRisk during this time; in fact, San Francisco has a high probability (70%+) that the eastern half of the city will reach or exceed a maximum temperature of 80 degrees on Wednesday. Onshore flow is expected to return on Thursday which may be enough to remove coastal locations from the Heat Advisory; however, we will likely wait to see how Wednesday's forecast fares before making any changes. To put this heat event into context, 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights are going to be between the 90th percentile and daily record values which indicates that we are dealing with an anomalously warm airmass with higher than normal heights. Two things that are preventing this from being a widespread record breaking event is September is climatologically the warmest month of the year for most of our area and we have benchmark records dating back to 1944.
..issued at 1214 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)
Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that the ridge will be tamped down by an upper-level low digging into the Pacific Northwest Friday. This will kickoff the cooling trend with temperatures moderating to near normal. The tightening of the pressure gradient will bring an increase in onshore flow and strong northerly breezes across the waters.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 442 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026
Northwesterly winds have developed this afternoon and are likely to persist through sunset before diminishing. Wind become light/variable overnight before becoming offshore at times early Tuesday morning. Low confidence for stratus to return early Tuesday morning around the Bay Area with the greatest potential being around the Monterey Bay terminals. VFR conditions are forecast regionwide beyond 16Z-18Z Tuesday. Onshore winds return Tuesday by early afternoon, yet may be delayed in timing and not occur until closer to 00Z Wednesday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Onshore winds have developed this afternoon and are forecast to persist through late evening. Winds ease into Tuesday morning and become light/variable or offshore at times. There is low confidence for stratus to return early Tuesday morning with generally less than 20% probability of reaching MVFR ceilings. Thus, have left out of the official forecast at this time. Onshore winds return late Tuesday morning and will persist through the evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, The potential for MVFR CIGs Tuesday morning is less than 10%. Otherwise, similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Onshore winds have developed this afternoon between 06-12kt. Winds ease late this evening after sunset and become light/variable early Tuesday morning. There is now a 30- 60% probability for IFR between approximately 06Z-17Z. Thus, have introduced IFR conditions into the official forecast overnight and into early Tuesday morning. Once any low clouds that do develop mixout, expecting VFR conditions to return by around 17Z.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 442 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026
Northwest winds gradually diminish to gentle to moderate tonight which then prevails through the remainder of the week. Winds look to increase late this week into the weekend. A long period southerly swell induced by distant tropical cyclone activity in the East Pacific prevails into next week.
Issued at 1213 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 11 PM this evening. Moderate to long period swell will increase the chance for sneaker waves, since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512>518-528>530.
PZ, None.
