, Issued at 211 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 (Today through Thursday)
Satellite imagery shows mid- to high-level clouds across the region. Low temperatures this morning will drop into the upper 30s to middle 40s in the inland valleys, with lows in the middle 40s to upper 50s along the coast and the bays. High temperatures today range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the coast and the valleys, and the upper 40s to middle 50s in the higher elevations. Light winds will continue for the rest of the overnight period, with the winds increasing through the morning in advance of an incoming low pressure system.
As of 1 AM today, a low pressure system was centered around 34N 130W, or around 500 miles to the west-southwest of San Francisco. This low pressure system is expected to approach the central California coast through the day, bringing the first substantial chances for rain in over a month, strong winds, and chances for thunderstorms. That part is certain. What makes the forecast challenging is the fact that with the low coming so close to the Bay Area and Central Coast, where exactly the low tracks later today, and whatever upper level support the low can generate, can greatly impact the magnitude of the impacts from the system. To give an example of the challenges involved, the HRRR model brings the low rather close to Point Reyes by 4 AM Wednesday morning, with an lower level jet supporting strong gusts across the SF Bay Area and parts of Monterey Bay, while the NAM model brings the low a fair distance away from Pigeon Point in southern San Mateo County by 4 AM Wednesday morning, cutting out the upper level support and producing less intense gusts across the Bay Area. Needless to say, this makes for a lower confidence forecast than typical for something arriving within the day or so, and a complex situation not only for the actual forecast, but in messaging the potential impacts. What follows is a element-by-element treatment of the impactful weather across the region, arranged in a roughly decreasing order of confidence.
As previously mentioned, the low pressure system will bring the first substantial rainfall to the region in over a month, with the rainfall starting sometime this afternoon or evening across the region. The southerly flow associated with the incoming system will bring in a long, thin plume of moisture that does come in from the subtropical waters near Hawaii, but is expected to quickly push through the area and progress down the coast into southern California. The setup of the low will favor the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia ranges, where rain totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected through Thursday morning. This setup also tends to enhance the rain shadow impacts commonly seen in the Livermore, San Jose, and Salinas Valley regions, and will also occur in the valleys of Sonoma County courtesy of the orientation of the incoming flow. Those areas could see around half an inch of rain, give or take a tenth, for the same time period. For the rest of the Bay Area and the immediate Monterey Bay region, rain totals will hover around an inch, maybe up to an inch and a half in the higher elevations. For context to all of this, Downtown San Francisco reported 2.65 inches of rain in the first 7 days of 2026, but has since recorded 0.15 inches since January 8.
The low pressure system is also expected to bring strong winds to the region, although how impactful those will be is a little uncertain due to the aforementioned differences in how the models are treating the track of the low and any upper level support. The default National Blend of Models is running closer to the lower end of the model envelope, so I have blended in the HRRR to bump up the expected wind speeds and gusts across the region. A Wind Advisory has been issued across Monterey and San Benito counties for 4 PM today through 4 AM Wednesday morning, due to southerly wind gusts up to 40-50 mph, with the highest gusts expected along the Big Sur Coast and the ridgelines across the Santa Lucias and the interior mountains, but even within the northern Salinas Valley wind gusts up to 40-45 mph are in the current forecast. The SF Bay Area and Santa Cruz County are the areas with the most uncertainty as of this time. The current forecast brings widespread wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph across the region with stronger gusts up to 40 mph along the coast and at the ridgelines. This is very much subject to change depending on the track of the low and the evolution of any upper level support that accompanies it.
Finally, there is a slight chance of thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon into Wednesday associated with the low pressure system. This is possibly the most uncertain part of the forecast. On one hand, lapse rates are steep across the region, and K Index values of 30-32 degrees C support the idea of scattered thunderstorms being possible. On the other hand, widespread cloud cover will tend to limit solar heating, limiting the chances for lift, which is one of the ingredients that are necessary for thunderstorms to form. If thunderstorms do form, lightning, localized strong gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and small hail are the main risks.
By Wednesday, the low will weaken and meander somewhere off the Bay Area coastline, with cold core showers continuing through the day. Showers linger into Thursday morning, and begin to diminish around midday into the afternoon.
..issued at 211 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 (Thursday night through Monday)
Behind the low pressure system, upper level ridging will develop late Thursday into Friday, bringing us a drier spell and slightly warmer temperatures to end the work week. An upper level trough returns to the West Coast beginning on Saturday, marking the return of a wetter pattern to the region. As the previous forecaster noted, weaker surface features will result in less impactful weather and a greater chance of beneficial light to moderate rainfall across the region. The upper level trough continues to deepen for the early part of next week, causing the cool and wet pattern to persist for the Bay Area and Central Coast.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 323 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026
Mid- to high level clouds across the region through the morning hours. Southerly winds will build through the afternoon hours in advance of a low pressure system coming close to the California coast before weakening and meandering overnight into Wednesday, bringing rain across the region. Showers will arrive to the region around 20-22Z, with steadier rain expected this evening through the end of the TAF period. LLWS is possible across the region, although the forecast magnitudes and confidence in those are not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. A slight chance of thunderstorms will arrive this afternoon lasting through Wednesday, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Confidence in wind direction and speeds across the SF Bay Area terminals is moderate, and can vary based on the strength and location of the incoming low; pilots should monitor future TAF amendments for updated information.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with mid- to high level clouds and light southeast winds through the morning, with winds beginning to increase this afternoon. Confidence in wind speeds is moderate and can depend on how the low evolves. Showers arrive to the terminal area around 21-22Z with steadier rainfall expected to arrive in the evening hours.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR with mid- to high level clouds and light winds through the morning. Winds increasing this afternoon with the approach of the low pressure system, but confidence in the wind speeds and directions is moderate, especially at MRY where local effects could shield the terminal from the strongest winds. In that case, LLWS is possible and even if the magnitude does not reach the threshold to include in the TAF, bumpy takeoffs and landings are expected. Showers are expected to come into the region sometime today, but confidence in timing is low to moderate as high resolution models disagree.
(today through Sunday) Issued at 323 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026
A low pressure system currently about 500 nm west of San Francisco continues to move eastward into the afternoon. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the incoming storm with gale force gusts possible south of Pigeon Point this afternoon through Wednesday morning, with the highest confidence between Point Sur and Point Piedras Blancas, along with periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms that will last through Wednesday.
Ca, Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ516>518-528-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
