, Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 (This evening through Sunday)
The 12Z sounding observed an 850 millibar temperature of 14.15 degrees Celsius which is above the 90th percentile (13.5 degrees Celsius) for the date and time. This warm air mass will result in above normal temperatures that will contend with daily high temperature records this weekend. Stratus that was advected via a southerly surge is beginning to pull back to the coast where it is expected to stay throughout the day. The shallow marine layer of 500 feet will likely undergo further compression as southerly flow veers to become northerly, promoting dry northerly flow. Stratus and patchy fog is expected to return to coastal locations tonight.
..issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
A passing upper-level shortwave trough and its associated dying cold front will encroach from the northwest Monday. This will crack the storm door open. Unfortunately, we will be far removed from the parent system in the Northern Great Plains; thus, only cooler conditions and wind are expected in the absence of rainfall. A gale force low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska will head towards the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. As it does so, it will pull in tropical moisture from the Northwestern Pacific Ocean that will overtop strong high pressure centered in the Northern Pacific Ocean. The strength of the aforementioned low will allow it to cut through the aforementioned high, renewing our chances for rainfall. The associated cold front will pass Wednesday into Thursday, bringing beneficial, light rainfall to the North Bay and locations along the bayshore and Pacific Coast. Interior higher terrain may get measurable rainfall with the help of orographic lift, otherwise the interior will remain dry. To put the month of March's precipitation into context we'll use San Francisco Downtown as an example. It has not rained there since March 2nd. If it rains on Tuesday, it'll tie 1923 for the longest dry stretch in March. 1923 is the driest March on record with 0.03", 2026 is the second driest on record so far with 0.06". Surface high pressure will nose in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Friday, rebounding temperatures near to slightly above normal.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 952 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026
VFR with a few high clouds across the region. Gentle onshore winds will diminish to light winds through Sunday morning. A shallow marine layer results in a moderate confidence for IFR-LIFR stratus overnight across the immediate coastal region, with patchy fog possible, especially at HAF. At STS, low probability and confidence for LIFR-IFR conditions early Sunday morning. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail through Sunday with breezy onshore flow resuming in the afternoon, with high resolution model data depicting stratus retreating away from the Bay Area coastline.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with thin high clouds through the TAF period. Gentle west-northwest winds gradually diminish through the next couple of hours with light winds Sunday morning, before the breezy west-northwest winds resume during the afternoon. Confidence in stratus impacts tonight, already low to very low, has decreased at the terminal, as well as to the east including at OAK.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, The stratus layer has not developed as robustly across the region as the earlier forecast had expected. Thus, confidence in stratus impacts tonight has decreased, and some model output suggests that MRY could remain VFR overnight. A compressing marine layer also results in the possibility of the stratus dissipating early, especially at MRY where some offshore flow could contribute to clearing. Any stratus that does develop in the region should clear late Sunday morning with breezy northwest winds resuming in the afternoon. Stratus return is considered unlikely on Sunday night through Monday morning.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 952 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Hazardous conditions for small craft persist across the northern outer waters due to moderate to fresh northerly breezes. This spreads into the inner waters and the rest of the outer waters on Sunday, when infrequent strong gusts are expected. Moderate northwesterly breezes on Tuesday will back to become southerly by Wednesday. Light rain returns Tuesday and Wednesday. Moderate seas will prevail through Thursday.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
