, Issued at 1117 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025 (This afternoon through Saturday)
The radarscope is not nearly as illuminated as it was this time yesterday, though as we approach convective temperatures, there could be some pulse type shower activity. Not all locations will see rain this afternoon. This "lull" in precipitation is anticipated to last through this afternoon and into the first part of tonight. As our the main upper low responsible for Thursday's rainfall slowly inches to the east, it'll induce modest warm air advection over the relatively cooler/moist airmass. This isentropic ascent will result in a broad rain shield developing across the California Bight just before sunrise. This rain shield will expand into portions of the Central Coast after sunrise Saturday with rain showers as far north as potentially the South and East Bay as moisture pivots around the main upper low.
Forecast soundings between Monterey and Paso Robles show around 50 J/KG of MUCAPE with a moist adiabatic profile, supportive of largely warm-rain dominated cloud processes. This won't necessarily support an appreciable threat for thunderstorms, but it could mean a risk for heavy rainfall. Portions of the Santa Lucia Range received anywhere from 4-6" of rainfall on Thursday. While the potential for an additional 2" is around 50-60%, it's most probable that the axis of heaviest rainfall (over 4") will remain to the south of our Central Coast counties. If this upper low, however, remains a bit farther to the north, then there's the potential that this heavier rainfall axis could shift northward into a greater portion of the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges which would be impactful. For now, peak rainfall amounts are generally 1-2" (isolated 2.5") across the higher terrain of the Central Coast (Santa Lucia, Gabilan Ranges, and Santa Cruz mountains).
The PoP forecast required some alterations from the blended guidance as it's largely very broad-brushed. The higher-resolution NWP, however, is in decent agreement, with the placement of the greatest precipitation, however, and confidence is medium to high in this being a better starting point for Saturday's rain forecast. As it stands now, portions of the Central Coast, parts of the South Bay, East Bay, and extreme eastern portions of the North Bay should see rain chances between 50% and 90% on Saturday, largely through the morning and into the afternoon. Farther west, rain chances are 20 to 50% and in fact, there's a reasonable chance that during the daylight hours, most areas west of SF Bay remain largely rain-free. As noted above, there's uncertainty in the track of the upper low (and thus where precipitation will pivot), so I'll keep rain in the forecast here.
..issued at 1117 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
The initial upper low will be kicked eastward rapidly by our next, and likely more impactful system on Sunday and into Monday. There still remains some uncertainty with regard to the timing, but the current expectation is that an amplifying trough will skirt eastward during this time period. These types of troughs can present challenges in timing. If further amplification unfolds than currently thought, the east-west progression frequently slows down compared to initial forecast. This is reflected in the blends' PoPs which are largely broad and span multiple time ranges, when in reality a bulk of the precipitation may be confined to a smaller time period. This may be most noticeable on Sunday and while the current forecast carries PoPs through the entire day, it's probable that there will be a brief window of rain-free conditions across the area Sunday afternoon.
As it stands now, the most probable time for the heaviest precipitation appears that it'll be be Sunday evening and into Monday morning. In fact, some of the deterministic guidance suggest that even portions of the pre-dawn hours on Monday may be relatively "dry." Given some of the timing differences, it's wise to keep PoPs a little more general until 1) higher-resolution NWP arrives and 2) the evolution of the upper trough becomes more certain.
The wind field does not appear as expansive as our last event, however, there's a corridor of southerly 925mb winds of 40-45 knots ahead of the main upper trough on Monday. This could result in Wind Advisory caliber gusts across the Central Coast as well as encourage upslope flow across the Santa Lucia Range and Santa Cruz Mountain regions and this does appear to be reflected in the NBM very well. This system has the potential to be more impactful, however, as some of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) does indicate a higher end rain event compared to model climate. At this time, the aforementioned upslope regions are most probable for the heaviest of rainfall. with an additional 1-2" of rainfall.
As the main upper low swings through the region, snow levels could drop down to around 5400 feet. If enough moisture remains as the cooler air arrives, then it's possible that a few snow flakes mix in with the rain across the higher terrain of the Central Coast. At this time, no impacts are anticipated.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 357 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025
Currently VFR at all terminals. A well mixed atmosphere with offshore flow should be enough to stave off any sub-VFR conditions tonight with the exception of STS which has the potential for fog. Winds will be light and variable overnight. Rain showers return tomorrow morning and are expected to persist through the TAF period. Ceilings may lower to become sub-VFR towards the end of the TAF period, but confidence is too low to include at this time.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with southwesterly flow. VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will veer to become northeasterly tonight, backing to become westerly by tomorrow afternoon. Rain showers will approach the terminal by late-morning and are expected through the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach, Rain showers will impact the San Mateo Bridge Approach before they impact the terminal by approximately an hour or so.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at MRY and VFR with westerly flow at SNS. Winds will veer tonight to become easterly. Rain showers will approach the terminals by mid- morning, persisting through the TAF period. Ceilings may become sub- VFR by that point, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.
(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 357 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025
A gentle to moderate breeze with rough seas will prevail tonight. Moderate to rough seas and moderate to fresh breezes will prevail through Sunday morning. Conditions deteriorate Sunday afternoon with strong to near-gale winds, rough to very rough seas, rain, and a chance for thunderstorms lingering through Monday. Conditions begin to improve by Tuesday.
Issued at 1117 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will continue through tonight as long period westerly swell arrives. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet are expected and there's an increased risk for rip currents and sneaker waves. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Stay off the rocks and never turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
