, Issued at 106 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025 (This evening through Thursday)
San Francisco and the immediate bay shoreline stayed mostly cloud free this morning while the North Bay, South Bay, and East Bay valley locations remain socked in with low clouds. This is as offshore flow just above the surface pushed tule fog and/or stratus into these areas. We have seen these clouds erode in the South Bay while they remain over the far interior East Bay and North Bay. We are expecting these clouds to mix out and give way to a few hours of Sun, except across the far interior East Bay and bay side parts of Marin County. This has made for a challenging forecast over the past week or so, especially with respect to afternoon maximum temperatures.
Look for more of the same overnight and into early Thursday morning with tule stratus and/or fog to return to much of the aforementioned areas. Elsewhere, we are expecting mostly clear skies overnight with temperatures dropping into the 40s across much of the lower elevations and mid-to-upper 30s in the interior Central Coast.
For Thursday, expecting temperatures to warm a degree or two in the non-cloud covered areas as a ridge of high pressure continues to build over the region. Again, places which happen to see full sunshine are likely to be warmer than currently forecast. But on the other hand, cooler than currently forecast if cloud cover holds on throughout the day.
..issued at 106 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Temperatures will warm by a few degrees each day through Saturday as the mid-to-upper level ridge axis shifts inland. This will be the beginning of the ridge breaking down over our region. Thus, we are likely to return closer to normal temperatures (still likely up to 10 degrees above seasonal averages) and potentially unsettled weather conditions as zonal flow returns to the region, especially across the North Bay. This would bring the potential for light rain to the North Bay and Bay Area by Monday or Tuesday with chances lingering through the middle of next week. However, the clusters do not point to a significant trough developing until around December 20th.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 443 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
It's VFR except for areas of fog and stratus /IFR/ in the East Bay and the North Bay. Strong thermal and height ridging continues aloft across the forecast area, while lower elevations in the East Bay and the North Bay will have either continuing or increasing fog (including possibly patchy dense fog) and stratus /VLIFR-IFR/ tonight and Thursday morning. Patchy fog and stratus redeveloping over the South Bay as well tonight and Thursday morning. Offshore winds continue due to currently WMC-SFO 3.3 mb and SAC-SFO 1.9 mb pressure gradients. Forecast mix out times of fog and stratus for Thursday are near persistence i.e. near today's mix out times. The highest probability of VFR for the 00z TAFs continues over the north Central Coast.
Vicinity of SFO, Near high confidence VFR forecast for the evening, then it's a low to moderate confidence VFR continues late tonight and Thursday morning. The latest Oakland upper air sounding does show a somewhat shallower layer (~ 540 feet) beneath the lower level temperature inversion, a result of additional large scale compressional warming aloft with the high pressure system. This layer depth is not ubiquitous across the Bay Area, but from data analysis/detection it does seem to be true from the East Bay nearest the Delta to the SF Peninsula vicinity KSFO and areas southward. Bottom line is, if stratus forms and advects toward SFO late tonight and Thursday morning it's likely it'll be IFR or lower, possibly including fog. Will monitor satellite, observations, etc. and amend the TAF if needed.
SFO Bridge Approach, VFR. Slantwise visibility issues possible especially during sunset and sunrise due to haze.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Surface winds mainly southeasterly 5 knots except up to 10 to 15 knots in the Salinas Valley late tonight and Thursday morning. Winds temporarily shifting to variable or locally onshore late Thursday afternoon.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 407 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
High pressure off the coast will maintain northerly fresh breezes across the outer coastal waters with light to gentle breezes near shore. Light offshore winds will continue from the Delta to the San Francisco Bay and through the Golden Gate. A new, long period northwesterly swell will last into this weekend.
Issued at 1224 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
Long period swell will reach the coast Wednesday - Friday. This energy brings strong rip currents, an increased risk for sneaker waves, and large breaking waves. The Bodega Bay Buoy is reporting a WNW swell of 9 feet with a 13 second period. That translates to breaking waves of 12-16 feet along west facing beaches. This coincides with nice warm weather, which will likely lure more people to the beach under a false sense of security. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through Friday evening. Respect the power of the ocean and never turn your back on it.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
