Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

505 am PDT Mon apr 13 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1136 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday)

The coverage in light shower activity continues to gradually shift south late tonight into early Monday morning. Earlier this evening the KOAK sounding reported a 23.0C temperature at H50 which is in the 10th percentile for this time of the year. That cold core aloft helped support continued light shower activity after sunset from the SF peninsula south to Monterey Bay. The upper low will become more unorganized as it moves farther inland, evolving into a positively tilted upper trough extending from the Great Basin southwest into SoCal today. Lingering offshore scattered light showers will occasionally drift into the Big Sur coastline through mid-morning today with maybe a trace to a few hundredths of rain. Mondays highs at lower elevations will run around 5F-10F degrees below normal, with higher elevations 10F-20F degrees below normal. Cooler than normal temperatures persist tonight into early Tuesday, especially farther inland with cooler than normal air aloft persisting much of the work week.

Long Term

..issued at 1136 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

A progressive shortwave pattern sets in Tuesday through Thursday behind the exiting trough defining the term 'gradual warming' with most locations seeing an increase of 1 or 2 degrees each day through the middle of the week. A developing trough shifts south from the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. There is a slight chance for rainfall across the North Bay Wednesday afternoon as the trough axis pivots east and south, but any rainfall will be measured in hundredths of inches with no impacts. Gusty winds will develop on the backside of the exiting trough later Wednesday through Thursday and into the early morning hours of Friday. However, updated deterministic guidance has shifted the disturbance farther east than this time last night with less of an 'inside slider' signal. Winds will still be gusty at times especially at higher elevations but impacts seem low. There is also a signal for the potential of another round of rainfall toward the end of next weekend into the beginning of next week.

Aviation

(12z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Lingering light showers last into the late morning for the South Bay and around the Monterey Bay. Pockets of fog look to affect portions of the North Bay into the mid morning before clearing. Winds stay mostly light through the late morning but these winds increase into the afternoon becoming breezy to gusty around the SF Bay and portions of the immediate coast. As winds increase, scattered mid- level clouds begin to thin with mostly clear skies expected into the afternoon. MVFR-level CIGs return to MRY into the evening as winds begin to reduce. CIGs look to build at HAF, LVK, and SNS into early Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Shower activity lingers south of the terminal through the mid morning. Scattered mid- level clouds clear into the late morning and breezy to gusty west- northwest winds build into the afternoon. These winds look to last through Monday night before gusts cut off and winds turn westerly into Tuesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Light showers continue to move through the area until the late morning. Expect northwest winds to build into the afternoon as cloud cover thins. MVFR CIGs build around the bay and at MRY into the evening as winds reduce. Scattered cloud cover will affect SNS into the evening, but SNS doesn't fill until early Tuesday morning.

Marine

(today through Saturday) Issued at 505 AM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Showers linger into the late morning before eroding. Winds stay light through the morning and early afternoon, increasing to a moderate to fresh breeze through Wednesday. Winds build again on Thursday leading to near gale force gusts into the end of the work week. Moderate seas continue through Wednesday before rough seas arrive on Thursday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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