Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

425 am PST Wed Dec 3 2025

Short Term

, Issued at 141 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 (Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery this morning shows stratus in the valleys surrounding the Bay Area and the interior Central Coast; however, the growth of the stratus is slowly getting cut off as the offshore pressure gradient tightens bringing in drier air to the region. Offshore winds have already started to ramp up for the North Bay mountains, with the highest points in Mayacamas and Sonoma mountains peaking around 50-55mph. Winds will continue for the rest of the Bay Area and Santa Lucia mountains, peaking by mid morning and the gradually decreasing as we head into the afternoon and evening. Given the earlier rains this season, fire weather concerns remain low due to moist fuels.

Long Term

..issued at 141 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 (Thursday through Tuesday)

The extended forecast remains persistent, with quiet weather returning for Thursday and lasting into next week. Ensemble forecasts show mainly upper level ridging, with some quasi-zonal flow at times, holding into mid to late next week. High temperatures are seasonal for the start of the forecast period, and increase to above average for this time of year through mid next week.

Aviation

(12z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

Moderate to breezy easterly winds are building into the region. The increase in winds and dry air will erode cloud cover and fog across the region, leading to widespread VFR into the mid morning. North to northeast winds last through the day but ease into the early night. Low clouds fail to return again for Wednesday night

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Easterly winds are building and this dry flow has eroded the lower clouds. Winds build in and become breezy to gusty before the mid morning. Gusts reduce into the evening and winds become lighter into the night. Moderate northerly winds arrive into early Thursday.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the TAF period. Light to moderate easterly winds last through much of the morning before turning more northerly into the afternoon. Winds weaken and become light and variable into the evening before increasing and turning southeasterly into the late night.

Marine

(today through Monday) Issued at 425 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

Moderate to strong winds reduce into the afternoon and become light late Wednesday through Thursday before a moderate to fresh breeze with occasional strong gusts returns Friday. Rough seas will subside by Wednesday night as westerly swell abates.

Beaches

Issued at 425 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

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