Issued at 952 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
The forecast remains on track so far. A few showers are being observed on radar this morning, with mainly cloudy skies being observed. Showers should continue to become more isolated to scattered in nature for the afternoon.
, Issued at 134 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 (Today and tonight)
Widespread light, stratiform rain continues across the southern Bay Area and Central Coast with around 0.5-1.0" having fallen with this system so far. Moderate rain will gradually become more scattered and lighten by mid to late morning as the cut-off low progress eastward. Showers will become more scattered by the afternoon as weak, shortwave ridging moves through but this is short lived as another, deeper, upper level trough moves in the Bay Area. This system is associated with a strong surface cold front which will bring moderate to heavy rain, potential for thunderstorms, and gusty winds ahead of it.
Compared to Saturday, we can expected a more typical north to south progression of the rain band ahead of this cold front. Moderate to heavy rain will reach the North Bay Sunday evening before spreading into the Bay Area and Central Coast Sunday night into early Monday morning. The North Bay Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains look to receive an additional 1-2" of rain Sunday night into Monday while the Santa Lucia Range receives an additional 2-3". For the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast, totals will generally range from 0.5- 1.25" Sunday night into Monday. High resolution guidance is relatively consistent that a period of moderate to heavy rain will develop ahead of the cold front as it passes through the Bay Area/Central Coast. Nuisance flooding and rises in small creeks/streams are likely as this band passes through. Given the amount of rain the Bay Area and Central Coast has had over the last week, soils are either saturated or close to saturation which increases surface runoff and, consequentially, the risk of nuisance flooding. If you encounter flooding while driving or encounter a road closure due to flooding, do not attempt to drive through it instead find a different route.
The other two impacts to consider this evening will be winds and thunderstorm potential. Winds will strengthen this evening and remain gusty overnight. Wind gusts will generally peak between 30 to 35 mph with locally stronger gusts across the higher terrain and mountain gaps/passes (Altamont Pass region). As the main rain band and cold front pass through, it is possible that temporarily stronger gusts will develop. Winds will gradually diminish throughout the day on Monday after peaking overnight Sunday into Monday. Now for thunderstorm potential, thunderstorm potential increases late Sunday afternoon into the evening across the marine environment. The NBM is highlighting a 30-35% chance of thunderstorms across the northern waters Sunday evening/night with a 20-25% chance of thunderstorms throughout the Bay Area/Central Coast Sunday night into Monday. The NAM shows a relatively unstable environment with 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 700-500mb lapse rates between 7-8C/km. Thunderstorm potential peaks ahead of of cold frontal passage with chances diminishing to 10-15% by Monday morning. This is not to knock the chances of thunderstorms in the post-frontal environment but know chances are highest ahead of/with cold frontal passage.
..issued at 134 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 (Monday through Saturday)
Periods of moderate rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms continue through Monday morning as a deep upper level trough pushes through the West Coast. Rain and thunderstorm chances generally diminish Monday afternoon into the evening with rain to fully exit the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Shortwave ridging will build in Tuesday to Wednesday which will allow us to dry out across the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will be short lived before another trough pushes into the West Coast late Wednesday and brings light rain Thursday and Friday. Precipitation totals for this event have trended downwards over the last few days with the center of the upper level trough now positioned further east/inland. This system is still several days out so continued fluctuations in precipitation are likely but, for now, this storm looks to produce light, largely beneficial rain fall across the region. Drier conditions return by mid to late Friday and continue into the weekend.
In the wake of Sunday-Monday's system a much cooler airmass will move into the region. This will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s and overnight lows in the low 40s. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the coldest morning's with lows in the 30s across the interior Central Coast. Pockets of near freezing temperatures are small so no frost/freeze products are likely next week at this time. The combination of cooler temperatures and lingering moisture in the Central Coast may result in some snow flakes across the Santa Lucia
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
Mid-level clouds with spotty MVFR CIGS linger through the day with some passing light showers into the afternoon. Expect light winds into the afternoon but southerly winds build through the afternoon and continue to increase into the night ahead of the next cold front. Winds and gusts peak as the front passes over the terminals overnight and into Monday morning, with gusts ranging from 25 to 25 kts possible. The main rain band of the front will offer moderate to, at times, heavy rain, leading to reductions in visibilities. Lighter showers linger behind the front and winds weaken, but stay moderate to breezy later into Monday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, MVFR CIGs scatter into the afternoon but mid-level clouds last through the day. Winds turn southerly for the afternoon and increase into the night as the first few pre-frontal showers arrive. Strong winds and gusts affect the terminal later into the night with gusts above 30 kts. Winds reduce in the wake of the main rain band
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Scattered low clouds and broken mid-level clouds last through the day. Light to moderate southwest winds build into the afternoon but turn more southerly and southeasterly into the evening and become breezy and gusty. MVFR Clouds build into the night. CIGs rise as the main rain band arrives into the night. The rain band will cause reduced visibilities and offer the strongest winds. Behind the front, winds turn westerly and stay breezy with lingering light showers.
(today through Friday) Issued at 952 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
Passing light showers linger through through the day. Expect building southerly winds that become breezy to gusty into the night. Winds will shift to a strong NW breeze as a new cold front arrives. This front will cause occasional gale force gusts, very rough seas, and poor visibility in heavy rain. There is also chances for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Conditions will improve Wednesday before very high WNW swell rolls in Thursday night through Friday.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
