, Issued at 152 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 (This evening through Sunday)
Pleasant, warm, dry weather continues today and again tomorrow. Upper level ridging weakens slightly across California as a shortwave trough moves into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. The only rain expected with this system is expected across far Northern California up through the PNW - in other words we remain dry as a bone. A weakening, trailing cold front associated with this system will, however, move through our CWA early Sunday morning. This will result in temperatures dropping up to 5 degrees between today and tomorrow. The largest drops will be from the South Bay into the Central Coast while temperature drops are relatively minimal across the rest of the Bay Area. Temperatures will largely be in the low to mid 60s with the exception of the interior Central Coast where high temperatures linger in the upper 60s to low 70s. We can also expect wind gusts over the marine environment and the higher elevations to strengthen Sunday into Monday. A few higher gusts may mix down into the lower elevations but they will largely be limited to the higher terrain.
High resolution models show a decent amount of fog developing tonight across the Bay Area but confidence is mixed on if this will occur. In favor of fog formation, winds will be light overnight and moisture will be decent. Fog is most likely to develop across the North Bay Valleys, East Bay Valleys, and the Delta/San Pablo Bay. The question then becomes how far into the SF Bay will fog/low clouds be able to develop and will it extend into the Bay Shoreline areas. HRRR and HREF guidance suggest that we will see a wider areal extent of fog cover tonight with fog extending into the Santa Clara Valley. Fog is most likely during the overnight/early morning hours. Anyone driving in the Bay Area, but particularly within the North and East Bay Valleys, should be prepared for sudden decreases in visibility and allow extra time to stop (if needed). A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Monday, for more information see the BEACHES section below.
..issued at 152 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
Slightly cooler temperatures continue into Monday with highs largely in the mid to upper 60s. The Salinas Valley continues to be a locally warmer region with highs in the low to mid 70s expected. Upper level ridging fully rebuilds over the West Coast Monday into Tuesday and firmly remains in place through the end of the forecast period. Notably, models are attempting to resolve a Rex Block (an area of high pressure/ridging directly north of an area of low pressure/troughing) that develops this week. In our case, we have a strong ridge centered over California/Nevada and a cut-off low to our south (near Baja California) that broke off from deep upper level troughing across the Central/Eastern US. We see this block develop around Tuesday but it looks to be short lived with models showing an incoming trough breaking down the ridge and picks up the cut-off low/reintegrates it into the jet stream Friday into next weekend.
So what does this mean for our weather this week? Essentially we can expect a continuation of our warmer than normal, drier than normal pattern for the rest of the week. Temperatures remain in the upper 60s to low 70s with the interior Central Coast peaking in the mid 70s. Urban areas across the South Bay and Central Coast are expected to experience Minor HeatRisk this week as warmer temperatures continue. This level of HeatRisk is not impactful to the majority of the population but, if you are extremely sensitive to heat or predominantly work outside, make sure to listen to your body, drink plenty of water, and take breaks as needed. Winds are generally light and offshore through the week. Additional chances for fog are likely overnight/early in the morning across the North and East Bay Valleys this week.
In response to a question we have received many times over the past few weeks, "where's the rain", it will hopefully return by mid- February. Models do show deep upper level troughing entering the West Coast around 2/9-2/10 timeframe with almost all the ensemble members for the ECMWF and GFS showing light rain across the region. Given that this is still 9/10 days out, we can't put too much stock in this just yet. If these rain chances continue to hold as it gets closer in time, which they may or may not, then our confidence in the end of this dry spell will increase.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 359 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026
The 500 mb high pressure ridge is to our east and high pressure over our forecast area will steadily weaken tonight and Sunday. Conditions favor VFR with exception of patchy valley fog /LIFR- IFR/ and areas of coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ tonight and Sunday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR except tempo IFR stratus ceiling 12z-16z Sunday. Mainly light N-NE wind becoming variable tonight and Sunday morning then northwest near 10 knots Sunday afternoon and evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Onshore winds near 10 knots becoming E-SE 5 to 15 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots possible in the Salinas Valley late tonight and Sunday morning. Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday afternoon and evening.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 353 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026
Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday morning and persist through Monday with seas building to become rough across the outer waters and northerly breezes increase to become fresh to strong. Conditions improve Tuesday with moderate seas and a gentle northerly breeze prevailing through Thursday.
Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
