Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1005 am PST Thu Feb 26 2026

Update

Issued at 842 AM PST Thu Feb 26 2026

Areas of dense fog persists across the North Bay and East Bay valleys, San Francisco, San Francisco Bay Shoreline, and the southern Salinas Valley. Thus, the Dense Fog Advisory has been extended until 11 AM PST this morning for these areas. The one place I felt comfortable canceling was the northern Salinas Valley as visibilities have improved over this region and visible satellite imagery confirms this. We will continue to monitor visibilities throughout the morning and adjust the Dense Fog Advisory accordingly. Surface temperatures will begin to warm by late morning and into the afternoon, lessening the fog threat.

RGass

Short Term

, Issued at 1252 AM PST Thu Feb 26 2026 (Today and tonight)

Mid-to-high level cloud cover streams over the Bay Area and Central Coast, below which low stratus and fog is developing in the wake of the widespread light rainfall from the last couple of days. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the North Bay interior valleys now through 11 AM due to reported visibilities below a quarter of a mile in the Sonoma and Napa County valleys. Will monitor observations closely during the night, with the possibility that the Dense Fog Advisory will need to be extended depending on how the stratus layer evolves overnight. The stratus is expected to clear late in the morning, although the high clouds will stick around to an extent, with the rest of the day rather warm for this time of year, with high temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 60s in the Bay Area Pacific Coast, to the upper 60s to lower 70s in the SF Bayshore, the Bay Area interior valleys, and the Monterey Bay region, and up to the middle to upper 70s in the southern Salinas Valley. Light winds overnight will build into a gentle onshore breeze this afternoon.

Long Term

..issued at 1252 AM PST Thu Feb 26 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)

Dry and warm conditions continue through the next few days with the warmest conditions expected on Friday, when highs range from the middle to upper 60s in the Bay Area Pacific coast to the middle to upper 70s in the interior valleys, even reaching the lower 80s in the interior Salinas Valley, Carmel Valley and possibly other warm spots in the Central Coast as well. A slight cooling will begin on Saturday as a cut-off low approaches, but temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages.

The approach of a cut off low on Sunday and Monday will interrupt this warming trend, with the low center expected to pass to the north near Cape Mendocino and the northern tier of the state. Light showers remain possible, but meaningful rain still remains elusive. The NBM continues to limit probabilities of 0.25" rainfall totals along the coastal ranges to around 10-20% for 24-hour periods ending on Monday 4 PM, and the 95th percentile rainfall total (where there is only a 5% chance of getting more than the stated amount) for the same period has dropped to below half an inch across the coastal ranges.

By Tuesday next week, shortwave ridging should bring a gentle warming and drying trend back. At and just beyond the end of the 7- day outlook, ensemble model cluster analysis shows the possibility of a weak trough coming through the West Coast, but the impacts are still uncertain. However, said cluster analysis suggests that as with the cut-off low this upcoming Sunday, major impacts are unlikely.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1005 AM PST Thu Feb 26 2026

Satellite shows fog and low cloud cover receding across the interior but continuing to linger for locations directly along the Bay Shoreline. Have pushed fog clearing times back to 19/20Z for OAK/SFO and APC due to persistent low clouds in those regions. Most recent observations are showing improving visibilities even as low clouds prevail. Guidance is going all in on fog developing again tonight but confidence is low to moderate. Current thinking is that a drier airmass and incoming high clouds will keep surface temperatures warmer/conditions drier, lowering the overall likelihood of fog development tonight. If fog does develop the North Bay and East Bay airports would be the most likely to see impacts to operations.

Vicinity of SFO, Satellite shows low clouds persisting over SFO and the SF Bay with some indications of low clouds receding across the South and East Bays. Pushed clearing times back to 20Z for SFO and 19Z for OAK with VFR persisting through the afternoon/evening. The 20Z clearing time is on the more pessimistic side for SFO with moderate to high confidence based on HRRR guidance and satellite trends that we will see clearing between 19-20Z. Guidance indicates some potential for fog again tonight but confidence is low due to incoming high clouds and drier conditions.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Moderate onshore winds through this afternoon with winds becoming lighter and more southerly overnight. There is some potential for fog to develop overnight in the Salinas

Marine

(today through Tuesday) Issued at 842 AM PST Thu Feb 26 2026

A moderate northerly breeze with localized fresh gusts across the southern waters prevails into the weekend before winds shift more northwesterly. Low to moderate seas continue into next week. Drizzle to light rain across the northernmost waters this weekend.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ006-506- 508-510-516.

PZ, None.

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