, Issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 (Tonight through Sunday)
The longwave pattern over the region is mostly zonal flow aloft with a few embedded ripples, which are discernible on water vapor imagery. At the surface we're seeing a pattern shift. High pressure over the Great Basin and troughiness at the coast led to notable offshore flow yesterday. That has since faded as the surface high weakened and began to shift eastward toward the Plains. A quick look at the satellite fog product shows the fading offshore flow is being replaced by a slow advancing southerly surge. Low clouds and fog are slowly oozing northward toward along the Big Sur coast. Hi-res WRF/HRRR/HREF guidance bring the surge northward initially to Monterey Bay and then farther northward up the coast by mid to late morning. The surge of clouds are predicted to hug the coast for most of the day today. The cooler marine influence will keep coastal areas in check temp wise, but move a few miles inland and it will be much warmer with highs int he 70s and 80s. Those highs will be 10-15 degrees above normal with a few climate sites make a run at records again.
Tonight through Sunday, Shallow marine layer will hug the coast and nose its way inland Saturday night. Given the compressed nature some patchy fog will be possible along the coast. Expect clouds/fog to linger through Sunday morning. Stronger northerly flow ramps up through the day Sunday with a hint of offshore flow. As such, the marine layer clouds will dissipate and be most prevalent along the Central Coast. No big change in the airmass on Sunday and less marine influence will actually lead to warmer temperatures around the region. Temps will be 70s and 80s with a few interior Central Coast spots making a run for 90. Goes with out saying, a few records may fall.
..issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
To kick off the work week we'll begin to see a more noticeable change in the overall sensible weather. The persistent ridge of high pressure will get knocked down first by a weak upper level disturbance moving through the PacNW and much more robust upper trough deepening over the region by mid-week. Temperatures will initially drop by 5 to 10 degrees from Sunday to Monday. Despite the drop forecast highs on Monday are still a few above normal. Further cooling is expected through out the week with near normal or seasonably cool temperatures by Wednesday. While the drop in temps will be welcomed sight for some much for was is being put on rain chances. So will it rain midweek? Previous model runs were kinda split in two camps: one a deeper trough with more direction impact over Central CA or less deepening of the trough and more impact northward. If you're looking for precip the trend isn't your and tonight's model trend is drier. The developing upper trough midweek is looking more like an inside slider with less "down the coast" trajectory. We were also monitoring a decent tropical moisture plume/tap as well. Sadly, this plume does take a Central Coast path, but quickly gets shunted southward as the inside slider moves through. While rain falls amounts have lowered we haven't completely removed rain just yet. Current forecast still brings light rain back to the region on Tuesday with more widespread/steadier rain Wednesday into Thursday. Now for the rainfall amounts: Interior Central Coast and far E Bay nothing to a trace/0.01", coast, North Bay, and Bay Area a few hundredths, and coastal mts up to 0.25"
(12z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Stratus is making its way up the coastline with HAF reporting ceilings around 500 ft. Kept in fog chances for STS but it is looking less likely for other airports tonight. Stratus is arriving later this morning than originally forecast but it should fill in along the coastline within the next few hours. Guidance continues to indicate clearing by 17-19Z but there is some potential for stratus to last longer at coastal sites (HAF, MRY, SNS). A shallow marine layer looks to develop again tonight which will bring stratus back to coastal sites. Confidence is mixed as to the timing of tonight's stratus return. Guidance is favoring a later return of stratus (after 06Z) compared to an early return (00-06Z) like was in the 06Z TAFs. Given the later return of stratus tonight, I tended to agree with the later stratus arrival tomorrow night but this may need to be adjusted.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with a low potential for stratus to reach SFO this morning. Confidence is highest that the shallow marine layer (~500 ft) will keep stratus confined directly to the coastline and won't filter into the SF Bay. Breezy NW winds continue through this afternoon before winds ease this evening/overnight. Low chance for stratus to reach SFO again tonight but confidence is low given that the marine layer is forecast to be shallow and around 500 ft again.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus is filtering into the Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley. IFR ceilings are expected to reach SNS by 12/13Z and last through the late morning. Ceilings will take slightly longer to fill in at MRY but will at least temporarily arrive between 13-17Z. Moderate confidence that ceilings will clear 17/18Z but there is some potential for ceilings to last longer than in the current forecast. HREF guidance shows stratus hanging around along the coastline through this afternoon. If the stratus bank does not dissipate much during the day then we may see an earlier return of stratus tonight. For now leaned towards a later arrival of stratus but this may need to be adjusted.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 439 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue with localized strong gusts and moderate seas across the northern outer water. Light rain is possible early to midweek as upper level troughing returns with winds becoming more westerly to southerly. Strong to near gale force gusts are expected late Thursday into the weekend. Seas build late Thursday into Friday with significant wave heights between 10 to 12 feet expected across the outer waters.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
