Issued at 631 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
While Winter is certainly our busy season, the breaks between storms bring some of the nicest weather of the year. Clear skies, mild afternoon temperatures, and gentle winds. The 00Z sounding found mostly dry air below the persistent humid layer above 20,000 feet. Light offshore winds will continue to limit fog formation overnight despite the cold temperatures.
Clusters now show very high confidence in this ridging pattern surviving through the 20th. Starting on the 21st, we finally see some zonal or even weak troughing solutions, but more than 70% of the superensemble members still keep riding at 500 mb. In other words, the next chance for any rain is early next week, but there's a good chance the dry weather lasts even longer.
, Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 (This evening through Monday)
Another night of chilly weather is in the forecast as persistent ridging keeps the weather quiet for us. The deterministic NBM is improving in terms of the forecasted low temperatures in comparison to the previous few days. Temperatures this morning trended a few degrees cooler than even the adjusted forecast had. Given this, decided to blend in this morning's observed temperatures with the deterministic NBM to pull tomorrow morning's temperatures down slightly. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the North Bay Valleys, East Bay Interior Valleys, the southern Salinas Valley, and interior San Benito County from 1AM-9AM PST Monday morning. Not a fan of chilly mornings? Temperatures warm into the low 60s across the Bay Area, 60s across the Central Coast, and even some mid to upper 60s in the Salinas Valley. Winds remain light and offshore with locally gusty conditions along the coastline.
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. If you are going to the beach, use caution and never turn your back on the ocean! There is an elevated risk of sneaker waves, rip currents, and larger shore break.
..issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
Colder mornings continue through at least Tuesday. We'll have to see how the current blend does for low temperatures on Monday but a similar blend may be needed for Tuesday morning. This would most likely necessitate a few Cold Weather Advisories for the coldest portions of the interior but they would not be widespread by any means. Daytime temperatures warm throughout the week and will be in the mid to upper 60s by mid to late week. The Salinas Valley looks to be one of the warmer locations with highs reaching the low to mid 70s this week. Morning temperatures warm as well with a return of more seasonal low temperatures in the 40s expected. Winds remain light and offshore through the week as upper level ridging continues. Wondering when our next chance for rain will be? Models are hinting some rain may be possible towards the end of the month starting the 21st/22nd but models are not in agreement as to the placement of ridging vs troughing over the West Coast. Just know that rain is currently unlikely to return through at least mid-month with long range guidance indicating some increasing potential by late month.
While the Beach Hazards Statement is set to expire Monday evening, hazardous beach conditions are likely to return mid to late week. Another round of long period swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents Wednesday into the end of the week. If you're heading to the beach keep this in mind and make sure you never turn your back on the ocean.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 927 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
Mostly VFR conditions under a straight forward ridging pattern. The two exceptions are at STS and HAF, where patchy mist and fog are expected through Monday morning. Otherwise expect light diurnally driven wind and mostly clear skies outside of high clouds through the TAF period. Overall Monday will be a great day for VFR pilots to get some hours.
Vicinity of SFO, High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. With a decent offshore gradient, wnds may flip to NE sometime Monday morning, but should remain light.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR conditions and light diurnally driven winds. SE surface winds will become moderate Monday morning at SNS as the offshore gradient combines with typical drainage flow down the valley.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 927 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
A moderate northerly breeze and long period moderate-rough westerly swell will persist through the day Monday before gradual improvement on Tuesday.
Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through 6PM PST Monday for all Pacific Coast beaches. A longer period moderate swell will bring hazardous beach conditions with increased risk for rip currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore break. This will result in dangerous conditions along the shoreline. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue through Thursday with the issuance of additional Beach Hazard Statements likely.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Monday for CAZ506- 510-516-518.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
