Issued at 918 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
It was a race between the incoming cloud layer and peak heating today, with some locations experiencing warmer temperatures compared to yesterday, and some locations experiencing cooler temperatures compared to yesterday. That said, most locations experienced an afternoon high ranging from 0 to 5 degrees above seasonal normals.
Locations across the North Bay down to the San Francisco Peninsula observed drizzle this afternoon and evening, with several locations measuring between 0.01 and 0.04 inches. Cannot rule out a couple more bucket tips over the next hour or two as the cold front pushes southward through our forecast area, but not expecting much in the way of impacts outside of slick roadways and ruined car washes.
No chance of rainfall on Monday, though expect mostly cloudy skies, which will keep afternoon high temperatures a few degrees lower than today. Rain chances (60-80%) return to the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday as details regarding the trajectory of the incoming weather system improve. Southerly jets, coupled with orographic lift, will encourage mountainous terrain precipitation totals in excess of 1.00 inch, while valley locations can expect storm total values generally between 0.50 and 0.75 inches. Expect a brief break on Thursday and Friday before additional precipitation moves into the region over the weekend.
Various Small Craft Advisories continue through Monday, with details in the MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below.
, Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 (This evening through Monday)
The main cold front this afternoon is visible on satellite as a line of cumulus that extends from Mendocino county southwest out into the Pac Ocean. The interesting feature though is the atmospheric bore that has ripping out ahead of the cold front, running out on top of the marine layer. As it moved across Point Reyes tower camera, the stratus came through with a bit of drizzle as well. RAP Bufkit soundings in the Bay area look to have picked up on this bit of moisture, with SFO/OAK/SJC all showing a brief uptick in saturation in the low level saturation, so you can't rule out a brief hit of stratus/drizzle in the Bay area as this bore moves in, though likely fizzles out as it begins to interact with the land.
As for the main precipitation shield with this front, water vapor imagery shows a deep plume of moisture moving into Oregon and Washington, with models continuing to keep the main synoptically forced rain region remaining farther norther. In addition, low and mid-level simulated WV imagery from special WOFs runs shows a wedge of dry air moving in across central California to the south of the main moisture plume up in Ore/Wash. This dry air shows up in forecast soundings as a wedge of very dry air from h85 to h7 that will keep it dry through this area. Also drying out on forecast soundings are the low levels, with fog looking much less certain tonight than what we had this morning. Adding a layer of complexity to the fog potential is that we will have that band of mid/upper clouds streaming south through the night that could really limit radiational fog potential for the north bay. Other than the potential for mid/upper clouds, Monday looks like another pleasant weather day before more active weather finally makes a return.
..issued at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
For Tuesday into Wednesday, the GFS has followed the ECMWF in being much stronger with the system that moves into the California coast, with closed lows from the surface up to h5. This includes 30-40 kt southerly jets at 925 and 850 mb that will crash into the Bay area that will help push a stronger moisture surge into the area, with a good wetting rain expected Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Precip amounts continue to creep up with this event, with most lower elevations forecast to get 0.5" to 0.75" of rain, with up to 1.5" of rain in the high elevations of the Big Sur region. Surface troughing will linger through Wednesday night, which will keep some light rain/drizzle going in coastal mountains into early Thursday.
Thursday and Friday continue to trend dry as a ridge moves through out ahead of our weekend trough that will be developing in the northeast Pac. As for that weekend trough, there are timing differences with when the firehose of moisture arrives, but whether it arrives Saturday afternoon (GFS/GEFS) or Saturday night (ECMWF/EPS), everything ends up in the same spot, a very wet end to next weekend, with PoPs in excess of 80% already in place a week out, indicative of this being a fairly predictable event. This will just be the start of a wet pattern, with numerous rounds of rain continuing through the following work week. As for snow potential, we do see freezing levels come down this weekend, but from the perspective of the MTR area, it's only the tops of our tallest peaks that show some snow potential. Freezing levels look to take a further step down next week (week of 2/16), which is when maybe we could see freezing levels low enough to start getting into the MTR mountains.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
Low ceilings will continue overnight as a weak front passes through the area. Showers and patchy drizzle associated with the front have largely ended. MVFR, with local IFR conditions near the coast, are expected overnight into Monday morning. Winds will turn northerly overnight into Monday, bringing drier air into the area. This should erode stratus earlier than previous days, with gradual improvement from north to south and most sites returning to VFR by 14-18Z. Light northerly flow should prevent the return of stratus through Monday evening, although a switch to southerly winds along the coast Tuesday morning could bring stratus back into coastal areas. Winds light N-NW or variable through Monday.
Vicinity of SFO, Mainly MVFR conditions overnight, but periods of IFR late this evening as stratus continues to move inland. Conditions improving Monday morning, with clearing to VFR anticpated 14-18Z. Light N-NE winds may keep stratus banked along the terrain to the southwest before it clears. VFR should prevail through Monday night. Winds light NW overnight, becoming N on Monday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO, except clearing may occur an hour or two earlier as N-NE winds push stratus to the southwest and bank up along the terrain.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, Mainly MVFR conditions overnight, except IFR late this evening at OAK. Brief reductions to IFR overnight at SJC/OAK are possible with low cloud layers lingering around SF Bay. Conditions improve early Monday morning (around 13-17Z). Fog potential is lower tonight than previous nights. Winds light variable to N-NW.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Confidence has increased that IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist over MRY/SNS overnight. Conditions gradually improve Monday morning, clearing to VFR by 16-18Z. May see a return of stratus late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Winds light NW to variable.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 940 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
A cold front will continue to move southeastward over the coastal waters and bays overnight through early Monday. Northwest winds will strengthen to a fresh to strong breeze today into Monday. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday. Rain chances return next weekend.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
