, Issued at 144 PM PST Mon Nov 24 2025 (This evening through Tuesday)
A mid/upper level ridge is building into the region from the southwest and will result in a gradual warming trend through Wednesday or Thursday. As such, temperatures this afternoon will warm into the 60s across inland areas while upper 50s are expected near the coast. Overnight, we are expecting less cloud cover and fog than the previous days as weak offshore flow persist in the higher elevations across the region and will work to compress the marine layer. However, cannot rule out patchy dense fog in the North Bay valleys in responds to drainage flow in the Russian River valley and East Bay valleys as tule fog spills in from the Central Valley. Temperatures overnight are likely to range from the 40s across the interior and lower 50s near the coast.
The warming trend will continue on Tuesday with the warmest interior spots in the southern Santa Clara Valley, Hollister Valley, and interior Central Coast reaching up to around 70 degrees F.
..issued at 144 PM PST Mon Nov 24 2025 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Wednesday and/or Thursday will be the warmest days of the week as the aforementioned ridge continues to build aloft. This is when we are expecting lower 70s in the Santa Clara Valley, Hollister Valley, and interior Central Coast under mostly sunny skies. These temperatures will be up to 10 degrees above seasonal averages.
From the previous forecaster: "Towards Friday into the upcoming weekend, a pattern change will occur as the ridge over the western United States breaks down, and one amplifies upstream across the Gulf of Alaska. As a result, cold Arctic air descends into the Mountain West and Central Plains states. Ensemble model guidance continues to point to this system following more of an inside slider like development in our region. In other words, the impacts of this trough fall into the windy and dry side rather than the rainy side. Still too early to tell how strong the impacts will be and where the greatest threats will occur, but the current forecast has a period of gusty offshore winds developing across the Bay Area and Central Coast late Saturday through, and somewhat beyond, the end of the 7- day forecast period. Confidence in the exact nature of the impacts will improve through the rest of the week, so keep in touch with the forecast updates for the most up to date information."
(00z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM PST Mon Nov 24 2025
It's mainly VFR along with a few areas of hazy conditions late this afternoon. Our forecast area is bookended by a shallow cool front and air mass moving southward over the coastal waters and low ceilings, fog and tule fog slowly advancing back close to our easternmost area of responsibility bordering our neighboring WFOs Sacramento and Hanford forecast areas. A stable air mass including a lower precipitable water (0.52") on the 00z (4 pm) Oakland upper air sounding compared to 0.72" 12z (4 am) this morning favors improving radiative cooling tonight and Tuesday morning. Light offshore winds per SAC-SFO 0.9 mb and WMC-SFO 2.0 mb both support a reversal of maritime influence we had over the weekend (which helped limit dense fog coverage), with an increasing continental influence reaching into our forecast area, including a tule fog intrusion from the east tonight and Tuesday morning; so far not seeing any numerical weather prediction mesoscale models showing any significant boundaries forecast to disrupt the light offshore wind pattern Tuesday morning which may allow any fog intrusion to the Bay Area to linger during the day, minus incoming solar heating Tuesday e.g. this may favor a positive feedback loop set up for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR continuing through the evening is supported by 24 hour trends warmer temp and lower relative humidity compared to this time yesterday. SF Peninsula is free from stratus clouds at this time per satellite imagery. There's an increasing probability 20%-30% of IFR per recent HREF between 09z-16z Tuesday, for the time being tempo IFR ceiling is noted 13z-17z Tuesday, but caveat is persistent light NE-E wind may transport even lower conditions to VLIFR-LIFR during this time. It's a low confidence forecast since it's still many hours from now, however weather conditions and the time of year (plus recent generous early season rain) are all favorable for aforementioned conditions and it needs to be closely monitored. As such, it is a low confidence forecast as to the return and duration of VFR Tuesday, if the model forecasts are under-forecasting the extent of fog it may take longer to mix out to VFR than currently 17z advertised in the TAF.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Moderate to high confidence VFR continues through at least mid evening here, with 24 hour trends neutral to slightly milder while humidities are essentially unchanged. Current satellite imagery also supports VFR forecast to mid evening. Nocturnal radiative cooling will set up cool air drainage winds for tonight and Tuesday morning, providing a mixing wind to help prevent the development of stratus and/or fog. Low to moderate confidence VFR continues tonight and Tuesday. Cool front and air mass passes by to our west, HREF/HRRR model ouput show dry, cool air drainage mixing winds and VFR prevailing tonight and Tuesday morning. VFR continues Tuesday afternoon with winds gently shifting back to light onshore in the mid to late afternoon.
(tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 436 PM PST Mon Nov 24 2025
The swell will continue to subside over the next couple days as high pressure brings favorable conditions across the area. Winds will begin to increase again late week, building moderate to rough seas.
Issued at 614 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
PZ, None.
