Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1024 pm PDT Fri jul 24 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1206 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)

Stratus has cleared to the coast and out over the Pacific this afternoon. As such, temperatures are forecast to reach the 60s to lower 70s in the west/northwest facing locations near the coast, 70s to lower 80s across the bayshore and Santa Cruz region, 80s to lower 90s across the interior, and mid-to-upper 90s across the warmest spots in the interior Central Coast.

For tonight into Saturday morning, the marine layer is forecast to compress slightly to around 1,000 feet as high pressure over the Desert Southwest continues to strengthen. However, stronger winds above the marine layer will mix down and make for a difficult cloud cover forecast. That said, look for similar conditions as this morning with less of an inland extend into the interior valleys tonight. Patchy fog is also likely along the coast, in the Russian River Valley, and into Santa Rosa/Petaluma region. Looking like a rinse and repeat for Saturday and Saturday night.

Long Term

..issued at 1206 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)

The ridge over the Southwest is forecast to strengthen into early next week as the trough off of the Pacific Northwest coast weakens slightly. This will keep a shallow marine layer in place while also allowing for a slight warming trend across the interior into early next week. The ridge over the Southwest looks to expand westward into southern California allowing for additional warming across the interior mid-to-late next week. Given the shallow marine layer forecast to remain intact, expecting typical ebb and flow of stratus returning to the coast late in the evening and into the valleys overnight. Stratus will retreat to the coast by mid-to-late morning each day. There is the potential by late next week to see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026

VFR conditions for all terminals other than KHAF early this evening. Satellite looks remarkably similar at this hour as it did the same time last night, thus expecting similar outcome through the remainder of the TAF period. Dense valley fog may once again drop KSNS into IFR/LIFR but is not currently in the TAF.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR with some stratus development in vicinity of both terminals, however don't expect it to filling until late in the overnight period with mid-morning clearing. Breezy onshore flow will persist through the overnight and become gusty once again Saturday afternoon but shouldn't be as strong as this afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Guidance suggests higher confidence in MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop, however current satellite trend indicate otherwise, but that can change quickly. Have MVFR ceilings developing after midnight and lifting by late morning with VFR through the remainder of the forecast period.

Marine

(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 503 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Moderate to fresh northwest breezes with strong to near gale-foce gusts will continue through the weekend. Moderate wind driven seas will also prevail, resulting in potentially hazardous boating conditions, even across the portions of SF and Monterey Bays. Long period southerly swell from tropical cyclone activity will arrive tonight and persist into the beginning of next week.

Beaches

Issued at 830 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Hurricane Fausto in the tropical Eastern Pacific will generate a long period southwesterly swell which is forecast to reach the coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast this weekend. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points (like Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach). Sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. This can potentially catch beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the cold water; hence the name "sneaker". Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Saturday morning through Tuesday afternoon for all beaches along the Pacific Coast.

RGass

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM PDT Saturday through Tuesday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

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