, Issued at 225 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026 (Today and tonight)
Fairly similar conditions to the previous night so far with slightly more consistent fog in the delta as well as in the North Bay Valleys. The fog around the Russian River in Sonoma Co looks to be more uniform than the previous night, and is more defined on satellite. This could hint at the fog lasting longer into the morning than the last few days.
After the fog clears, the region is set for another sunny day with this afternoon offering the warmest temperatures in the forecast. Highs around the Bay Area will mostly be in the 60s with a few 70s possible in the more interior areas. The Santa Cruz mts and southern Santa Clara Valley will see more 70-75 degree temps, but Monterey and San Benito counties will see widespread 70s. There is the potential for a few interior areas in southern Monterey Co to break 80 this afternoon. Temperatures will be quick to cool after sunset with the mostly dry airmass allowing for the warmest (and driest) valleys this afternoon to fall back into the mid to low 40s overnight. Some of the mountains will experience a weak thermal belt, leading to lows in the mid 50s among the peaks.
There wasn't much to tune in the overnight forecast package, aside from adjusting the mid to higher terrain winds. The national blend seems to be struggling with keeping up with some of those higher elevation breezes, so some of the local WRF and the NAM12 was added to the mix. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
..issued at 225 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
There hasn't been much in the way of changes in the mid to long term forecast. The ridge of high pressure narrows into the weekend, and allows for some slight cooling in high temps, while morning lows don't really see much movement. The orientation of the ridge could allow for a very weak onshore flow at the immediate coast in the late weekend. That, along with a slight easing of pressure shows signs for a return of a very shallow marine layer by Sunday. The marine layer and a feed of Tule Fog could offer some foggy mornings Sunday and into the next work week. However, the lingering dry conditions along with some thermal interference from passing high clouds could limit fog development. So that'll be something that will need finer tuning as the higher resolution models come into range.
The trend of cooling daytime temperatures looks to continue through the next work week, with overnight lows only seeing slight variations.
In the long, long-term forecast, models are coming to better agreement on the breaking of our current ridge pattern toward the end of the next work week. A strong trough deepens from the north, with its axis falling well to our east, but it looks to be enough to flatten the ridge over the west coast. Some model outputs place a weak low or a cold front through the area during this flattening, which could bring some rain. It won't be heavy rain by any means according to these models, but other models are placing the weak low much farther inland, which could mean stronger offshore winds and increased dry conditions. This all to say that while the longer term forecast starts to show a slightly clearer picture, there can still be some interesting variations that could lead to very different weather. So be sure to keep checking as more updates roll in!
(12z TAFS) Issued at 328 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. Tule fog from the Central Valley has intruded through the Delta and is encroaching the East Bay. Bay Area terminals (namely APC, LVK, and OAK) will be threatened by this. Even if the dense fog does not come to fruition, reduced visibilities can be expected and have already been observed at APC and OAK this morning. High confidence in VFR prevailing by this afternoon with a persistence forecast on tap for tonight. Haze will likely reduce slant range visibilities.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with southerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Easterly/Northeasterly winds will prevail through the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with drainage flow at both terminals. High confidence in VFR at both terminals. Winds may briefly back to become onshore this afternoon, but drainage flow is expected to prevail.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will veer through the morning to become offshore through Saturday before northerly winds return Sunday. Moderate seas will prevail through the week with the exception of the northwestern portion of the waters where rough seas are expected today.
Issued at 328 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
Hazardous beach conditions continue at all Pacific Coast beaches today. Hazards include sneaker waves, strong rip currents, and large breaking waves. Sneaker waves are potentially deadly waves that suddenly surge much farther up the beach than expected, overtaking the unaware. They can sweep beach-goers into the ocean, roll logs and heavy debris along the beach, knocking over or pinning down unsuspecting beachgoers, and can result in cold water immersion, which can be deadly with sea surface temperatures hovering around 55 degrees. Remain out of the water, stay off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.
PZ, None.
