The subtropical ridge will slowly build back in over the Hawaiian Islands as Tropical Storm Nolo continues to draft westward away from the Hawaii Region. Higher pressure returning to the islands from Friday onward will produce easterly trade winds, increase atmospheric stability, lower humidity levels and decrease shower trends through the weekend. Brief passing showers will favor windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Increasing cloud cover and shower trends may return from Monday night into Thursday morning due to a passing disturbance.
Moderate southeast winds will continue through Friday across the state as Tropical Storm Nolo moves away. Showers loosely associated with Nolo will continue to track over Kauai and Oahu through Friday with MVFR conditions likely with brief periods of IFR conditions possible. Trade winds will push in a drier airmass Friday night.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet is in effect for all islands this evening. Conditions may improve later tonight for the eastern half of the state as land-breezes develop, pushing clouds and showers offshore.
Issued at 358 PM HST Thu Oct 1 2026
Moderate southeasterly winds will prevail across the region through Friday as Tropical Storm Nolo continues to slowly drift westward away from the Hawaiian Islands. Gentle to fresh east to northeast trades will fill back in across the waters this weekend, lasting well into next week.
The moderate, short to medium period west to southwest swell originating from Tropical Storm Nolo will continue for Niihau and Kauai through Friday night. Additionally, a small background south swell continues for other islands, holding surf mostly steady along south facing shores. A new small long period south swell, originating from a large fetch of gale force winds southeast of New Zealand earlier this week, is forecast to arrive beginning Sunday afternoon and peak Monday through Wednesday.
A slight boost in north shore surf is expected on Friday due to a brief, short to medium period northerly swell building into the region. Additional rounds of tiny northwest swell energy will reach north and west facing shores early next week as the storms tracking near the Aleutian Islands become increasingly active. Surf along east facing shores will see a slight boost and become more choppy as easterly trades build back into the region this weekend.
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