Trade winds will continue through much of the week with high pressure system far to the northeast. A potential area for tropical development remains about 1100 miles east-southeast of the islands. Conditions remain favorable for tropical development and we will continue to closely monitor how this could impact the islands.
Moderate to breezy trade winds are expected over the next several days. Showers will focus mostly over windward and mountain areas, with some lower ceilings over windward and mountain areas tonight into Tuesday morning. Conditions should improve during the day as slightly drier air moves in.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward areas of Kauai this evening. This AIRMET could be expanded to other islands through the overnight.
Issued at 356 PM HST Mon Aug 10 2026
High pressure to the far northeast will remain nearly stationary through midweek as moderate to locally strong trade winds persist through Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Tuesday afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. The SCA may need to be extended through Wednesday. Later in the week, the focus will shift to the deep tropics southeast of the state. Latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center has a medium chance in 2 days for a tropical cyclone to form southeast of the islands. Depending on the track, it will have differing effects on local winds, seas and weather as early as Thursday. Northeasterly winds appear likely to strengthen as the cyclone approaches during the latter half of the week, but impacts will be highly track- dependent and there is significant forecast uncertainty at this time.
Surf along south facing shores will continue to remain elevated as overlapping south swells continue to impact the islands. A slightly bigger swell will build in Tuesday as another moderate, long period south swell is expected to arrive late Tuesday, fill in Wednesday, and remain elevated through Friday. Surf may approach advisory levels at the peak of the swell.
Surf along east facing shores will continue to remain moderate and rough due to moderate to locally strong trade winds. Later in the week, the track of a developing tropical cyclone will dictate the potential for a swell from the southeast to east. Aside from wrapping trade wind energy, surf along north-facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the week.
Due to a combination of peak monthly high tides and water levels running higher than predicted in a few locations, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for minor coastal flooding around the afternoon high tide through at least Tuesday. Tides will be decreasing on Wednesday, but coastal flooding may continue to be possible around high tide for locations where water levels are running highest.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
