A stable summertime trade wind pattern will persist through the weekend with moderate to breezy trade winds. A relatively dry pattern is expected today, with a slight increase of passing showers possible towards the end of the week.
This morning's satellite and radar imagery shows mostly dry conditions across the state with a few light showers over windward and mauka areas. 12Z soundings from Hilo and Lihue show a strong tradewind inversion between 5000 and 6000 ft, which will limit rainfall amounts today. Today should be a mostly dry day across the state with mainly some light accumulation over the slopes of the Big Island.
Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to maintain moderate to breezy trade winds through early next week. A slight decrease of winds will be possible Thursday or Friday, but generally winds should remain at moderate to breezy speeds. While a mostly dry day is expected today, we should see some passing showers return over windward and mauka areas by Thursday or Friday. Rainfall amounts will continue to be light, but generally a slight uptick of shower coverage will be possible over the weekend, mainly due to a slight increase of low level moisture.
Looking into the long range forecast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking several disturbances in the eastern and central Pacific that could develop in the next several days to a week. Global models and the google deepmind continue to indicate the potential for a tropical cyclone in the Central Pacific some time next week. While it is way too early to know if Hawaii will be impacted, we will continue to monitor the tropics, especially the area between 130W and 140W.
Moderate trades expected through the period. Low cigs and SHRA possible over windward and mauka slopes. MVFR conds in heavier SHRA otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days.
Moderate to locally strong trades will persist as a broad high pressure remains far north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through tonight for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds will ease slightly late Thursday through the weekend.
A long period south swell will begin to fill in today and peak Thursday into Friday. This swell could push surf towards advisory thresholds before slowly fading over the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to persistent trade wind swell.
Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to flat.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
