Breezy trade winds will persist through the weekend and at least the first half of next week, pushing showers over mostly windward and mountain areas.
High pressure far north of the islands will remain in place through the first half of next week, bringing stable breezy trade winds and showers to mainly windward and mountain areas. Showers will also favor the night time and early morning hours, and minor fluctuations in coverage are expected based on periodic areas of moisture moving through with the trades. With precipitable water values of around 1.2 to 1.4 inches, shower activity is expected to be fairly typical of this time of year.
By the later half of next week, a front passing by far to the north of the islands could push the surface high pressure east, decreasing trade winds.
Moderate to breezy trade winds with embedded showers are expected through the period. Showers are primarily expected to affect windward and mountain areas, but are capable of spilling over into leeward areas as well. Expect MVFR to even brief IFR conditions within showers, and VFR elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations across windward and mountain areas from Kauai to Maui. Expect these conditions to generally prevail through tomorrow due to upstream and ongoing showers.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence below 8kft for areas downwind of terrain due to breezy trade winds. Expect this to remain for the next couple of days, as trades remain steady.
Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail as high pressure remains anchored far northeast of the islands through the weekend and beyond. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island, and this SCA will likely need to be extended through at least Monday. Trade winds may ease slightly Tuesday as high pressure shifts away to the northeast.
The south-southwest swell that produced advisory level surf along south-facing shores for the past few days will slowly decline into this weekend. Nearshore buoys early this morning are reporting this swell to be near 3 feet, 14 seconds. As such, expect elevated (but sub-advisory level) surf along south facing shores today, which will gradually ease over the next couple of days. A new small, long-period south swell is expected to arrive late Sunday and peak on Monday.
Along north-facing shores, a small, medium-period north swell will peak today, then ease over the weekend. A tiny west-northwest swell is possible early next week. Surf along east-facing shores will gradually build to around seasonal average today. Near average east shore surf will prevail this weekend into early next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
