Locally breezy trade winds will remain through the weekend, easing a bit early next week. A trend toward fewer windward and mauka showers, and more sunshine, is expected this weekend as drier air pushes in on the trades. Typical trade wind showers will return early next week.
Moderate trades will continue through Sunday, with just a slight decrease in speed tomorrow. Clouds and showers will be focused over windward and mauka locations. Conditions will be VFR apart from isolated MVFR over windward and mauka areas in clouds and showers.
No AIRMETs in effect. There is the possibility of an AIRMET for mountain obscuration during the afternoon and evening hours.
High pressure far northeast of the islands and a passing broad trough to the south will maintain fresh to locally strong trades across the region through at least this afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) currently in effect through 6 PM HST this evening has been expanded to include most waters surrounding The Big Island and Maui County, including the windward zones and Kaiwi Channel. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday into early next week as high pressure to the north starts to weaken, which should scale back and then eliminate the need for a SCA. Then as high pressure builds back to the north, trades will strengthen over the latter half of next week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain elevated keeping levels near average through the day today. A larger, moderate south swell is expected to build Sunday through early next week, bringing potentially High Surf Advisory level conditions Monday and Tuesday. As this swell slowly fades into the middle of next week, another moderate south-southwest swell is expected to arrive next Thursday.
A small, medium-period west-northwest swell will gradually fade through the weekend, causing surf along north-facing shores to drop to flat/tiny levels.
East facing shores will remain choppy today and then will gradually drop through the rest of the weekend into early next week as trade winds ease. Energy from Tropical Storm Elida may reach the islands during the middle of next week and bring a slight boost for east facing shores.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
