A relative decrease in shower activity in the wake of a departing surface trough associated with the remnants of Norbert is expected through this weekend. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through Monday before gradually declining by midweek. Another round of enhanced moisture will arrive by next Tuesday, which should increase shower activity statewide.
A surface trough associated with the remnants of former TC Norbert will exit the region to the west tonight. As a result, a drier trade wind pattern is expected on Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail for most locations, with the potential for passing MVFR ceilings and isolated showers mainly along windward and mountain areas. The Kona slopes of the Big Island could see some afternoon showers as well on Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out for the Big Island again on Saturday afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this time. Breezy trade winds will persist through the weekend.
AIRMET Tango has been issued for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of island terrain due to the breezy trade winds. This AIRMET will likely be needed through much of the weekend.
High pressure will remain to the northeast, therefore moderate to locally strong trade winds will continue through at least the first half of next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the typical windy waters around Maui County and Big Island through Saturday, and will likely be extended into early next week for these waters. A trough could move into the area next week.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain above average through the weekend as long-period south-southwest swell peaks tonight. Then another south swell will build in Saturday and both swell will decline gradually next week. A smaller long period swell could fill in late next week.
Moderate surf along east-facing shores will persist over the next several days as fresh to locally strong trades continue. Surf along north-facing shores will remain flat to tiny, with a minor bump possible Tuesday into Wednesday next week. Then a small long period west-northwest swell swell could build in late next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
