A weak surface trough will continue to move west of Kauai today. This feature will bring a slight uptick in afternoon shower activity, especially over interior and northwest portions of Kauai and Oahu. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers will be mainly confined to interior regions and on mountain slopes as weak to moderate east southeast flow prevails. Through this weekend, expect weak to moderate east or east southeasterly flow statewide with mainly isolated showers along windward slopes. Monday into mid-next week, trade winds increase, along with a return of more consistent night and early morning showers for windward locations.
Gentle to moderate easterly trade winds will prevail today as a weak surface trough lifts north of the islands. Residual moisture from the trough is producing slightly lower than usual MVFR ceilings along windward slopes of Oahu and Kauai this morning. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration on these islands will likely be lifted later this morning if conditions improve as expected. Since trades will be slightly stronger than yesterday, sea breezes will be less extensive, though still able to produce isolated MVFR ceilings and SHRA across leeward terrain this afternoon. VFR should dominate at the terminals.
Issued at 356 AM HST Fri Jun 19 2026
Light to moderate trades will hold for the next few days as a weak surface ridge remains to the northeast and a broad surface trough lingers north of the island chain over the next few days. The weak trough, which moved across the islands over the past several days, is now north of Kauai, producing scattered showers over the offshore waters. Trade winds will begin to increase on Monday and trend upward through next week as troughing north of the island chain is replaced by a strengthening ridge.
A moderate, medium period south swell will steadily fade today into the weekend, allowing surf along south and west-facing shores to steadily diminish through Saturday. After this, a series of smaller south and southeast swells will fill in Saturday into the first half of next week, which will maintain surf near seasonal averages through next week.
Tiny surf will prevail on north shores through most of the coming week as only some limited short-period energy reaches the islands from the north. Trade winds remain lighter than normal through the weekend, keeping surf along east-facing shores below average. East shore surf will begin to slowly trend up beginning Monday as trade winds increase across the region.
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