Strong high pressure to the north will slowly weaken over the next several days. As a result, the windy trade winds will gradually decrease back down to normal levels into next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas for the next few days before potentially increasing slightly during the middle of next week.
Satellite and radar imagery shows low clouds and scattered windward and mauka showers occurring across the state. Winds will gradually decrease over the next few days. By midweek, trades will further ease as Tropical Storm Genevieve weakens to a post- tropical depression and tracks far northeast of the state, disrupting trade wind flow. Bands of moisture will move over the state, returning typical scattered showers to windward and mauka slopes. Model guidance continue to show a tropical upper level trough shifting just northwest of Kauai by the middle of the week. In addition an area of enhanced moisture may move from east to west across the state. If this comes to fruition, expect a steady increase in low to upper level moisture/clouds and increasing chances moderate to locally heavy windward and mauka showers, especially for the western half of the state.
Generally VFR with breezy trade winds through the day. Occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities within more organized SHRA primarily over windward and upslope mauka exposures.
Breezy to locally windy trades resulting in moderate low level turbulence over and immediately S through W of mountainous terrain will keep an AIRMET Tango in effect this morning. Slightly lifted decks over Oahu and Kauai's higher terrain will allow AIRMET SIERRA to expire this morning.
A high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will weaken over the next few days, decreasing trade wind speeds from moderate to strong range today into the gentle to fresh range from Monday through Thursday. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) coverage was lowered this morning to the typical windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island, this SCA will continue through tonight and then likely be cancelled by Monday morning.
Surf along south facing shores will stay below seasonal averages as consecutive small south to southwest medium period swells impact the shorelines into Friday. The next small, long period south swell will arrive by Saturday with a slight bump in south shore surf heights through next weekend. Possibly a larger long period south swell arriving early next week.
East facing shores will remain rough and choppy today due to a combination of strong trade wind waves and a small, medium period easterly swell generated from Tropical Storm Genevieve that will linger for next few days.
Surf along north facing and west shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period except for areas exposed to the easterly trade wrap and the small south swell wrap around. near
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST early this morning for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters- Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
