Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

512 pm hst Thu Oct 8 2026

Synopsis

Showers will decrease in coverage and intensity tonight into Friday. After southeast winds Friday, trades will build back in this weekend and extend well into next week. This will be a relatively dry trade pattern. However, windward and mauka areas will still see occasional showers.

Aviation

Issued at 309 PM HST Thu Oct 8 2026 Light to moderate southerly winds will gradually shift southeasterly this afternoon and tonight. Showers will continue, with intermittent MVFR conditions over mainly Oahu, Molokai, and Maui. VFR should prevail elsewhere tonight.

At PHNL, wind gusts should gradually decrease, with winds shifting from southerly to southeasterly tonight.

At PHNY, IFR and LIFR conditions have persisted through much of the day. A shift to southeasterly flow and drier air should allow conditions to improve to MVFR, then VFR, by Friday morning.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across Kauai and Oahu, as well as south- through west-facing portions of Molokai and Lanai. Temporary IFR conditions are also possible in showers moving across central Oahu, with conditions improving tonight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence downwind of terrain. With southerly flow, the favored areas are north and east of island mountains.

Marine

Issued at 309 PM HST Thu Oct 8 2026 A low pressure system to the north will result in moderate south to southeast winds and enhanced showers across the state into Friday. Weak trades may nose in from the east this weekend and early next week, but a trough will remain west of the area keeping winds fairly light across the western half of the state.

Moderate south swell will continue into next week with a long period reinforcement arriving Saturday. Surf along south facing shores will remain just below advisory levels during this time before declining by the middle of next week.

Moderate surf is also expected along north and west facing shores through Friday and declining through the weekend. A slightly larger swell will arrive around Tuesday, boosting north shore surf but staying below advisory levels. West facing shores will be impacted by both the northwest and south swells, but surf should stay below advisory levels. Surf along east facing shores will remain small as local winds remain fairly weak.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

None.

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