A weakening trough near Kauai will continue to bring showers to the Garden Isle today. Additional moisture moving into the islands will continue the chance for showers statewide through the weekend. Southerly winds through the weekend will give way to returning trade winds Monday, which will carry showers into the islands early next week.
A weakening trough near Kauai will continue to bring showers to the Garden Isle today. Additional moisture moving into the islands will continue the chance for showers statewide through the weekend. Southerly winds through the weekend will give way to returning trade winds Monday, which will carry showers into the islands early next week.
A northeast to southwest oriented trough near Kauai brought showers and thunderstorms to the area overnight. While additional showers and even some thunderstorms remain possible, the main threat for flooding has diminished, and so the Flood Watch was cancelled this morning.
The forecast has been updated to trend towards the National Blend of Models (NBM), however there haven't been any significant changes with the morning package. A change for today has been an increase in PoP for the central islands (Maui County and Oahu). The NBM appears to have locked on to an area of clouds and showers a little over 100 miles south of Oahu at 330 am, that is moving north. Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for today over and around Kauai, however there are some indicators in the models to suggest that thunderstorms could still be possible tonight and tomorrow, and even over the central islands. However there is conflicting guidance, so confidence is low, so have left thunderstorms only in for today near Kauai.
The trough is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours, although southerly winds will continue over the region. This will continue to bring moisture up over the islands into Saturday. A surface low developing about 1100 miles northwest of Kauai on Saturday will help to bring additional moisture northward, however the low is expected to stay far to the northwest of the islands, so not expecting those showers to impact us.
Sunday should see our winds become southeasterly, and by Monday we expect to see trade winds filtering back into the islands. As the trade winds build back, moisture upstream will be carried in on the trades, bringing showers back to the more typical windward and mauka areas. During the second half of the week, the high pressure responsible for the returning trades is expected to be sinking southward, which will shift our winds to a more southeasterly direction. Will need to monitor future models runs to determine any significant changes in shower .
The trough near Kauai continues to bring clouds and showers to Kauai in the southerly flow near the islands. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for Kauai for the resulting mountain obscuration, and that is expected to continue through much of the day. Clouds and showers are possible today over the remaining islands, particularly over Oahu and the islands of Maui County. These clouds and showers could at times produce mountain obscuration or MVFR conditions, which could result in those areas being placed under an AIRMET. Anticipate the Big Island to remain mostly under VFR conditions today.
A surface trough, near Kauai, will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers to much of the coastal waters today with isolated thunderstorms possible over the western waters. Aside from any gusty winds associated with passing thunderstorms, generally gentle to locally moderate southerly winds will prevail east of the trough. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for waters surrounding Kauai and Oahu has been cancelled, as combined seas have lowered below advisory levels (10 ft). By late this weekend, easterly trade winds will gradually build from east to west with the potential for SCA conditions over the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. Expect trades to strengthen further early next week as surface high pressure builds to the north.
The current moderate, medium period, north northwesterly swell (340-350 deg) peaked yesterday evening and has been slowly fading since. Thus, the High Surf Advisory (HSA) for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui has been cancelled. However, this north northwest swell will remain elevated today and keep surf just shy of advisory levels through early Saturday. A moderate, medium period, northerly swell is progged to enter the waters late Saturday and may bump surf back up to near advisory levels Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday night into early next week, the swell fades and should allow surf to drop to below seasonal averages.
East facing shores will remain small given the lack of trade winds upstream of the islands, but areas exposed to the north swell will see an uptick through the rest of the week. As trade winds gradually strengthen later this weekend, east facing shores could become rough and choppy Sunday through early next week. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through remain flat to tiny through the weekend into early next week.
None.
