An upper level trough over the islands will set the stage for an unstable environment lasting through Monday. A low level trough riding in from the north will trigger another round of moderate to heavy showers later tonight through Monday afternoon. Cool moderate to breezy northeasterly trade winds will blow across the region with decreasing shower trends as high pressure builds in from Monday night onward.
Issued 301 PM HST Sun Feb 22 2026
A few SHRA and some isol TSTMS are ongoing across mostly Maui and the Big Island this afternoon. The trough that moved north is expected to move back southward through the state tonight and tomorrow, bringing another round of SHRA and TSTMS with a return of breezy and gusty trade winds. IFR/MVFR conds possible within SHRA, otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is not in effect at this time but may be needed later tonight as the trough moves southward.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod upper level turb across the entire state.
Issued 301 PM HST Sun Feb 22 2026
A trough stretching from a surface low north of Maui across Oahu to south of Kauai will produce gentle westerly winds south of the trough, while fresh to strong easterly winds prevail north of the trough. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected near the trough. The trough will be pushed slowly southward by a strong North Pacific surface high tonight and Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds north of the trough will spread over waters north of the Big Island, with the strongest winds initially around Kauai and Oahu requiring a Small Craft Advisory (SCA). Winds should ease slightly Monday night and Tuesday, but a large north-northeast swell will produce seas in excess of the 10 foot SCA threshold over most waters into Tuesday night. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected on Wednesday, giving way to southeasterly winds Thursday or Friday as a front approaches.
Very small surf will persist across most shores through tonight, followed by a building north-northeast (010-030 deg) swell on Monday. This long period swell will build rapidly during the afternoon and will produce breaking waves at High Surf Warning levels across most north and east facing shores during the peak Monday night and Tuesday. Due to the direction of the large swell, exposed west facing shores of West Maui, western Molokai, and North Kohala on the Big Island will likely experience High Surf Advisory waves. A Coastal Hazard Message has been issued to highlight these conditions. The north-northeast swell will gradually decline Tuesday night through Friday. In addition to this swell, a small pulse of overlapping west-northwest swell is expected Monday through Wednesday.
Due to the direction of the large north-northeast (010-030) swell, some overwash will be possible along low-lying coastal roads and infrastructure in windward areas, and hazardous conditions and heavy surges are expected in north facing harbors, mainly in Hilo and Kahului. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued to highlight this threat.
Very small wintertime surf will continue along south facing shores this week.
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe and Maui.
High Surf Warning from noon Monday to 6 PM HST Tuesday for north and east facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island.
High Surf Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM HST Tuesday for west facing shores of Molokai, Maui and the Big Island.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for the Big Island summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
