A high pressure system far to the northeast of the state will keep trade wind weather in the forecast through much of next week. We are closely monitoring an area for potential tropical cyclone development roughly 1100 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Based on the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center, further development is expected by the middle of this week. The long range Hawaii forecast could change dramatically if this system moves towards the islands.
Fresh trades expected for the next several days. Low cigs and SHRA expected over windward and mauka locations. IFR/MVFR conds possible in heavier SHRA, otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward areas of all islands due to a steady stream of showers carrying in with the trades.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb lee of terrain due to wind speeds.
Issued at 343 PM HST Sun Aug 9 2026 High pressure to the far northeast will remain nearly stationary through midweek as moderate to locally strong trade winds will persist through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Monday afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. Borderline conditions will likely continue through at least Wednesday, which may prompt further extensions of the SCA. Later in the week, the focus will shift to the deep tropics southeast of the state. Latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center has a high chance in 7 days for a tropical storm to form southeast of the islands. Depending on the track, it will have differing effects on local winds, seas and weather as early as Thursday.
Surf along south facing shores will remain near the August average through Monday as overlapping south swells impact the islands. Surf looks to slowly building through the week. A larger moderate long period south swell is expected to fill in Wednesday and remain elevated through Friday prompting the potential for a High Surf Advisory at its peak.
Surf along east facing shores will continue to remain moderate and rough due to moderate to locally strong trade winds. Later in the week, the potential of the developing tropical's track will dictate the potential for a swell from the southeast to east. Aside from wrapping trade wind energy, surf along north-facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the week.
Due to a combination of peak monthly high tides and water levels running higher than predicted in a few locations, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for minor coastal flooding possible around the afternoon high tide through at least Tuesday. Tides will be decreasing on Wednesday, but coastal flooding may continue to be possible around high tide for locations where water levels are running highest.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
