Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue to bring isolated to scattered showers to windward and mauka areas through this evening. Winds will begin to ease tonight, then turn out of the south by midweek as an area of low pressure develops to the north of the state. Rain chances and the potential for heavy rain will increase during the second half of the week.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds continue through tonight, but weaken Tuesday due to a nearby surface trough. This will cause a hybrid light trade wind and sea breeze pattern on Tuesday. Terrain sheltered areas will be more likely to see afternoon cloud and shower development as a result. Brief and isolated shower activity is expected over windward and mountain areas. MVFR conditions will occur within showers, while VFR prevails elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for portions of the Big Island this evening, though conditions should generally improve by early Tuesday morning.
Issued at 358 PM HST Mon Oct 5 2026 High pressure centered far northeast of Hawaii will drive moderate to fresh trade winds tonight. Winds are in the process of weakening as a low pressure system dig southward towards the state, therefore, the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled for all waters and should remain so through the rest of the week. The low will stall north of the islands and draw moisture out of the tropics and over the area through the second half of the week, so expect an increase in showers.
A long-period south swell will increase to slightly above seasonal averages through Wednesday. Surf is then forecast to drop to near or slightly below average for the rest of the week, maintained by a mix of new, small south swells.
A long-period northwest swell will arrive on Tuesday that will continue through the end of the week even as swell energy becomes shorter period as it is reinforced by a low to the north- northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Surf along east facing shores will diminish tonight through the rest of the week as winds weaken.
A small, long-period west swell originating from Typhoon Choi-wan is forecast to reach the islands Thursday into the weekend, which may produce moderate surf for west-facing shores.
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