Drier trade winds will prevail early this week with light showers on the windward side of the islands. Low level convergence along a surface trough will bring a modest increase in clouds and showers late Monday into Tuesday. More rain is expected through the second half of the week as remnants of Tropical Storm Norbert pass through the region.
No major changes to the forecast this morning as drier trade wind weather prevails. Shower activity should remain limited today thanks to these winds, with the windward side of the islands having a 15-40% chance for showers while the rest of the areas remain dry. If anything, we'll likely see cumulus clouds skirt by. In fact, satellite imagery this morning has shown cumulus clouds develop and generally migrate eastward or bank up along the windward side of islands. In terms of winds today, look for weak to moderate trades to continue. Winds may become light enough within more wind- protected leeward areas to initiate local topographically- driven breezes.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect. Will need to keep an eye on the clouds to see if we reach mountain obscuration criteria today.
Issued at 331 AM HST Sun Sep 13 2026
Moderate to locally fresh trades will continue through the week before gradually strengthening through the latter half of the week. Moisture associated with a weak trough moving in on the trade wind flow may bring a slight uptick in shower activity to the coastal waters Tuesday into Wednesday. While the current forecast has Tropical Storm Norbert dissipating before it nears the Hawaiian coastal waters from the east, remnant moisture from this system is expected to arrive potentially by Thursday, likely bringing more showers.
Surf along south-facing shores will gradually decline through Monday as the small, medium-period energy slowly fades. A series of long-period swells are expected during the second half of the week. The first pulse will gradually fill in Tuesday into Wednesday out of the southwest, followed by larger south-southwest swells Friday into the weekend. Surf could get near advisory thresholds over the weekend, but at this time it looks like it would peak just below advisory thresholds.
A small short-period northeast swell filled in overnight and will peak today and fade out on Monday. Surf along east-facing shores should see an increase during the second half of the week as the trades strengthen and the remnants of Norbert moves through the islands. Some small energy is expected along northern exposures today from the northeast swell, but otherwise flat to tiny surf along north facing shores is expected through the forecast period.
None.
