A high pressure system will strengthen north of the Hawaiian Islands, producing moderate to locally windy trades. Light to moderate showers will focus over windward and mauka areas with brief showers spilling over to leeward areas, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. Winds will ease and possibly shift out of the southeast during the second half of the week and into the weekend as the high shifts northeast of the state and a weak frontal boundary approaches the state from the northwest.
Breezy trades will persist through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers will be concentrated mainly along windward and mauka locations, most numerous late at night through the mornings. Some of the showers may produce brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for north through east sections of the Big Island below 2500 feet due to low clouds and showers. Sierra will likely be canceled later this morning as conditions improve.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for for tempo moderate turbulence downwind of terrain below 9000 ft.
Robust surface high pressure centered far north of Hawaii will maintain fresh to near gale force trade winds into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters except windward Big Island through Monday morning but will need to be extended through at least early Tuesday. Trades will steadily decrease late Tuesday and Wednesday as the high weakens and is displaced eastward by an approaching low far northwest of the islands. Trade winds may lower to gentle strength or may become disrupted as the low passes to the north Thursday.
A north-northwest swell and a smaller overlapping west-northwest swell will slowly decline through Monday and fade on Tuesday. A very small northwest swell may arrive Thursday, followed by a moderate north- northwest swell next weekend.
The current south swell will continue a slow decline today. South shore surf will drop below seasonal average Monday and will remain relatively small through much of the week. A moderate south- southwest swell is expected next weekend.
Rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf just above seasonal average through Tuesday, then decline later in the week as trade winds decrease.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
