Limited showers windward and mauka into next week. More widespread rain develops over the western end of the state by Wednesday. Periods of heavy rain will be possible over and around Kauai and potentially Oahu.
Trade wind pattern will continue today, with isolated morning showers observed on a couple windward and mountain areas, with the most likely MVFR conditions at the Lihui and Hilo terminals through morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail the rest of the day.
No AIRMETs in effect.
Gentle to fresh northeast to east trade winds has filled in today as high pressure strengthens gradually to the north. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued, in effect beginning this evening, when locally strong trades are forecast to develop for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. Locally strong trades may persist into early next week before high pressure to the north weakens again and winds start to diminish. By the middle of next week, troughing developing northwest of the islands may cause winds to veer out of the southeast once again.
A small background south swell will surf mostly steady along south facing shores through the weekend. A new small, long-period south swell, originating from a large fetch of gale force winds southeast of New Zealand earlier this week, is forecast to arrive beginning Sunday and peak Monday through Wednesday. This will push surf to slightly above seasonal averages for the first half of next week.
A small bump in surf along north-facing shores will decrease today as a small, short period north swell fades. Another small bump in north shore surf is possible early next week as a small, medium-period northwest swell arrives late Sunday and peaks on Monday. This will be followed by a slightly larger long-period northwest swell peaking on Wednesday, giving a good boost to north shore surf for mid-week. Surf along east facing shores will increase and become more choppy through tonight as easterly trades build back into the region.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
