Drier trade winds will prevail into early next week with light showers on the windward side of the islands. A weak disturbance will lift out of the deep tropics towards the middle of next week bringing a slight uptick in trades, increased humidity, and a better chance for showers.
Morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a large upper level low well northeast of the state and generally dry northwest flow aloft as a weak short wave moves southeast over the area. Remnant moisture and showers remain west and southwest of the Big Island and will gradually dissipate through the morning.
Drier air in prevailing trade winds will continue through the weekend. Typical trades weather is expected over the next few days with occasional light showers across the windward side of the islands each day.
A tropical disturbance currently several hundred miles southeast of Hilo will move northwestward over the next several days. NHC forecast has dropped to a 10% chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next 7 days. Most likely scenario is for this feature to help pull tropical moisture into the area, though how much and when will depend on its track. For now expect precipitable water and dew points to increase once again with a small increase in trade winds and higher precipitation chances towards the middle of next week.
Tropical Storm Norbert is currently around 1820 miles ESE of Hilo, moving west-northwest at 9 mph. This system is now forecast to remain at Tropical Storm strength through Wednesday, when it will still be southeast of Hawaii. There remains higher than normal uncertainty on where this storm will track as it approaches, so confidence in impacts - if any - to the islands remains low.
A large area of low pressure centered approximately 1,200 miles northeast of the islands is disrupting the downstream pressure gradient back to the islands. This has resulted in weaker regional trade winds that will persist through the weekend. Winds may become light enough within more wind-protected leeward areas to initiate local breezes. Relatively drier northerly air is working its way in across the state and will limit shower activity.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for Big Island's north and east-facing slopes through 6 AM HST with improving conditions thereafter.
Moderate to locally fresh trades will continue through the forecast period. A tropical disturbance moving in from the trade winds may bring an increase of showers to the coastal waters by Tuesday into Wednesday.
Surf along south facing shores will gradually decline through the weekend as the small medium to long period energy slowly fades. A low in the south Pacific near Australia and New Zealand will bring the potential for a moderate long period swell for Hawaii late next week.
East facing shores will also remain at small to moderate through the forecast period due to the fresh to locally strong trade winds. Flat to tiny surf along north facing shores is expected through the forecast period.
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