Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

859 am hst Tue Feb 10 2026

Synopsis

High pressure north and northeast of the islands will continue to deliver windward and mauka showers on breezy to windy trades through early next week.

Aviation

A strong, broad area of high pressure remains north of the Hawaiian Islands and will continue to generate strong to near gale trades through the rest of today before gradually weakening to a more breezy trade wind pattern. Shower activity and increased cloud cover also continues, predominately favoring windward and mauka areas, which may create MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail across the remainder of the state.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc over all smaller islands and windward portions of the Big Island.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo mod isol sev turb below 070 for leeward sides of the islands and mod tempo turb between FL240 to FL380 over entire area.

Light icing is expected in cloud layer 120-FL250 across the state.

Marine

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift eastward over the next few days. Trade wind speeds will gradually weaken from strong to gale force today to fresh to strong from Wednesday onward. The Gale Warning for windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island and the Small Craft Advisories for the rest of the coastal waters were extended through the tonight time period. Expect the Gale Warning to drop back to SCA levels for windier coastal waters from Wednesday on into the weekend.

The strong trade winds will keep high surf and very rough seas along east facing shores of most islands today and tonight, and the High Surf Advisory was extended in time through early Wednesday morning to cover these conditions. Slowly decreasing easterly trade winds tomorrow will cause surf heights to fall along east facing shores below advisory thresholds by Wednesday morning. However, elevated surf heights along east facing shores will keep rough conditions in the forecast just below surf advisory thresholds into Friday.

Small to medium northwest swells will continue through the week with smaller surf lingering in the forecast along north and west facing shores for the foreseeable future. Small background medium period south swell energy will keep surf heights along the south facing shores on the tiny side lasting into early next week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kahoolawe- Kauai East-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast- Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South- Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South- Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward- South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel.

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