Light to moderate trades will gradually weaken through Saturday, allowing for the development of localized sea breezes which will bring clouds and a few showers to leeward and interior areas each afternoon, and land breezes which will help to bring clearing overnight. Moderate to locally breezy trades will return early next week, bringing back the typical windward and mauka showers. A slight weakening and veering of the trade wind flow may unfold for the latter part of next week.
Trade winds will become weaker as a surface ridge north of the islands weakens. Low ceilings and showers expected, mainly over windward and mauka areas. MVFR conditions possible in isolated heavier showers, otherwise VFR.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for windward locations of Oahu, Maui, and Big Island. Conds may extend into the afternoon.
Issued at 311 AM HST Thu Jun 11 2026 High pressure far north of the area will weaken and move east as a front passes by north of the islands. This will cause trade winds to weaken into the the gentle to moderate category with localized land and sea breezes through Saturday. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will return Sunday through early next week as the surface ridges strengthens north of the state.
A small pulse of south- southwest swell will fill in today into Friday keeping near average surf along south facing shores.
Long-period energy from a storm that passed within our swell window around New Zealand earlier this week is expected to gradually fill in locally late Friday through the weekend. The peak of this storm had seas near 55 feet, and current guidance has this swell peaking Sunday into Monday that will drive surf heights near warning levels. The swell is hitting the Samoa Buoy this morning, so increased confidence in the size of the swell is expected later today as the swell fills in further there. This swell will also coincide with the peak monthly tides and will likely lead to significant wave runup and minor coastal flooding during the first half of next week, particularly during the peak daily high tide cycles. A marine weather statement is also anticipated due to the threat of harbor surges. South shore surf will then remain elevated through much of next week due to the slow decline of this large south swell and a series of more overlapping southerly swells.
East shore surf will slowly decline below seasonal averages through the the weekend as trades ease, then pick up a notch next week as more breezy trades return. No significant swells expected elsewhere.
None.
