Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

939 am hst Tue jul 7 2026

Synopsis

The tight pressure gradient draped across the islands, driven by an area of strong high pressure far north of the state, will continue to produce breezy to windy trades for the remainder of the week. Showers will primarily focus along windward exposures as well as along upslope higher terrain. An increase in shower coverage and frequency is anticipated later this week, with higher rain accumulations likely occurring during the nocturnal hours.

Aviation

Breezy to locally windy trades will continue through Wednesday and bring low clouds and scattered showers predominately to windward and mountain areas. There will also be isolated spillover into leeward sites. VFR will prevail for most sites, with occasional localized MVFR mainly for windward/mountain sites associated with the stronger showers.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days.

Marine

A strong high pressure ridge centered north of the state will help to drive fresh to strong trades across all local waters through this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters through this afternoon. Will continue to monitor to see if some zones may drop out of the SCA as winds shift more easterly and drop a notch this evening.

A moderate, long period, south southwest (190-200 degrees) swell will continue to generate surf along south facing shores just below advisory levels. This swell energy will slowly lower today through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend with mainly background energy. Another moderate, long period south southwest swell (210-220 degrees) may fill in Sunday, but due to the direction of the source, could be more inconsistent than this current swell.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A small, moderate period west (280 degrees) swell is expected to arrive this weekend and linger into early next week. No significant swells are expected out of the north or northwest.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

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