Lighter background winds will support daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes from Wednesday through Friday. Thus, most cloud cover and shower activity will favor interior and mountain areas during the afternoons. In addition, deeper moisture associated with a weak trough will move northward from the southeast Wednesday through Friday, and will briefly increase shower chances island-by-island as it weakens. A more typical trade wind pattern will return late this weekend.
Moderate trade winds continue through the evening before weakening tomorrow. A surface trough SE of the Big Island will progress northward, bringing enhanced shower activity to windward sections of the Big Island and possibly Maui tomorrow morning. Cloud and shower development is possible across leeward areas of the state as well tomorrow afternoon. Expect MVFR conditions within showers, and brief IFR conditions within heavier showers.
No AIRMETS are currently in effect, however Sierra may be needed as cloud and shower coverage expands with the aforementioned system moving in.
Issued at 356 PM HST Tue Jun 16 2026
A ridge of high pressure north of the state is driving moderate to locally fresh trades. Trades will ease to light to moderate speeds Wednesday as the trough pushes the ridge east of the state. The ridge will strengthen north of the area over weekend as the trough weakens and lifts far north, allowing moderate to fresh trades to return.
The large, long period south southwest swell that brought warning level surf to the state earlier this week will continue to slowly decline. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect through tonight for all south facing shores. Surf heights are expected to drop below advisory levels by Wednesday. Another moderate, long period, south southwest swell is expected to fill in Wednesday night into Thursday that could push surf back up to HSA levels along south facing shores. This swell will slowly fade Friday through the weekend.
Surf along north facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period. Surf along east facing shores will remain below average as easterly trade winds ease through the end of the week.
The Coastal Flood Statement has been extended through tonight for minor coastal flooding of vulnerable low-lying coastal roadways, docks, boat ramps and other coastal infrastructure due to King Tides. King Tides combined with water levels that are running higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding potential around the daily peak tide, which will be during the late afternoon and early evening hours. While minor coastal flooding is expected along all shorelines, the combination of the large south southwest swell and peak daily high tides will make low- lying coastal areas along south and west shores susceptible to more widespread coastal flooding through this evening.
A Marine Weather Statement has also been extended through tonight due to the moderate-to-long, long-period south southwest swell producing harbor surges and breaking waves near harbor entrances along south and west- facing harbors.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island South- Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro- Kahoolawe-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai Southeast-Niihau-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast.
