An increase of showers are expected over Oahu and parts of Maui county tonight and the Big Island Friday into Saturday as a band of moisture moves in from the north. Our moderate northeasterly trade winds will focus the showers over windward and mauka areas with brief downpours possible especially Friday into Saturday over the eastern half of the state. A drier airmass will return over the western half of the state over the weekend, while showery conditions could persist over the windward areas of the eastern half of the state. Our current moderate to locally breezy northeasterly trade winds will strengthen this weekend and become breezy to locally strong by Saturday evening.
Issued at 331 PM HST Thu Mar 26 2026
Visible satellite imagery show scattered clouds with embedded showers over windward areas and along the Kona coast of the Big Island where a seabreeze has set up. Showers have been mainly light with just .01 to .10 of an inch of rainfall reported in the past hour for the wetter locations. Leeward areas have been mostly sunny with a few clouds and light showers spilling over at times. Latest high resolution model guidance continues to show a slight uptick in showers as a shallow band of clouds and embedded showers moves over Kauai rest of this afternoon, then over Oahu and Maui County this evening into early Friday morning. Elsewhere mostly clear skies overnight will lead to cooler overnight temperatures. Showers will remain mostly light with modest accumulations being confined mainly to windward and mauka areas given the strong inversion heights around 6 to 7 kft. Breezy northeasterly winds will hold through Friday as a surface high remains northwest of state and a low remains northeast.
This pattern of mostly sunny days and cool nights will continue through the weekend. A weak front marked by another band of shallow clouds with embedded light showers is expected to arrive Friday night and will push through the state into Saturday with and area of moisture diminishing around windward Big Island through the day Saturday. Moisture availability will be less than tonight so again expecting modest precipitation totals and limited low level cloud cover with a few high clouds streaming overhead. Temperatures will be notably cooler behind this front and dewpoints will drop in the mid to upper 50's making for a cooler than normal weekend. Breezy northeasterly trades will become locally windy Saturday into Sunday as the aforementioned high strengthens and the low deepens and remains north of the state into early next week.
By middle of next week the low will have weakened and shifted far northeast of the state allowing the high pressure system to shift north of the state. Trades will become more easterly and ease to more typical breezy speeds. Clouds and showers will continue to be mostly confide to windward and mauka areas with the best chance of rainfall, if any, during the overnight and early morning hours.
Issued at 825 PM HST Thu Mar 26 2026
A stable trade wind pattern remains in place over the islands. Periodic showers with localized MVFR conditions are possible across windward sites, otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the period.
AIRMET Tango is in effect across the islands for moderate turbulence between FL270 and FL350. These conditions are expected to improve by tomorrow.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward Kauai due to shower activity. This may be expanded to Oahu by tomorrow morning, as overnight satellite imagery depicts moisture moving in from the north that may lead to a localized increase in showers.
Issued at 331 PM HST Thu Mar 26 2026
A low pressure system northeast of the islands and a high pressure system to the far northwest of the Hawaii region will keep northeasterly trade winds in the forecast through the rest of the week. Wind speeds will continue to ease through Friday before a cold front ushers in fresh to strong northeasterly trade winds. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to return from Saturday into the first half of next week as high pressure builds north of the state.
A combination of small medium-period northwest swells, one of which is peaking today (310-320 degrees) and the other arriving on Friday (320-330 degrees), will supply small surf along north- facing shores through Saturday. These swells will gradually fade through the weekend.
For east facing shores, short-period wind wave energy from northeasterly trade winds will gradually fade through Friday, then build into the weekend.
A large short- to medium-period north-northeast (010-020 degrees) swell will build into the region Saturday night through Monday, likely bringing advisory-level surf to north- and east-facing shores late this weekend into early next week.
Along south-facing shores, small background pulses will keep surf heights above flat conditions through early next week.
None.
