A slightly unstable trade wind flow will prevail today as a weakening upper level low produces isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly on the Big Island. Somewhat wet easterly trade winds will focus most rainfall along windward slopes Sunday into early next week. A more stable, moderate to breezy trade wind flow will develop Tuesday and Wednesday.
Conditions are generally expected to be VFR today as yesterday's weather system continues to weaken and move away from the islands. Periodic windward showers and MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out, however the trend for the rest of the weekend is expected to be a gradual return towards normal trade wind conditions.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration above 020 for Kauai, Oahu, and the Big Island, however conditions are expected to improve by the afternoon.
Winds will remain slightly east southeasterly this weekend at moderate to fresh levels. The upper level disturbance that gave us some severe weather yesterday will be moving northeast away from the state, with stability slowly returning to the region. As a result, expect decreasing showers and thunderstorms across the waters. A more typical easterly trade wind pattern will return next week.
A small, medium-period north northwest (320-330 degree) swell will continue to decline this weekend, with surf along north-facing shores following suit. A new, short period northwest swell will provide another small bump to surf along north-facing shores by mid-week. Surf along west-facing shores will remain mostly steady this weekend as the northwest swell influence gradually declines, but a new, long-period south southwest reinforcement arrives today.
A mix of small, medium to long period south swells will maintain small surf along south-facing shores for the next several days. The long-period south southwest swell described above will maintain small surf along south-facing shores today. Additional small, medium to long- period south swell reinforcements will arrive Sunday through mid-week. Surf along south-facing shores should lift to summer averages by Sunday and hold through Wednesday.
Moderate to fresh trades will maintain rough and choppy surf along east-facing shores for the next several days.
Tides will peak around 2.5 to 3.0 ft MLLW this weekend. Minor overwash of low lying coastal areas will be possible during times of high tide.
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