Moisture will decrease through the rest of this weekend. Light to moderate background trade winds will prevail, allowing sea breezes to develop in sheltered leeward areas. A brief increase in showers is expected Monday night on the Big Island before a return to relatively dry trades through the end of next week.
Light to moderate east trades will hold through the period. Low cigs and SHRA should primarily impact windward and mauka locations with some isol SHRA over leeward areas through this evening. MVFR conds possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for portions of all islands. Conds should improve overnight into the morning hours.
Issued at 357 PM HST Sat Oct 10 2026
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail this weekend, though weaker winds will remain in place over the western waters as a trough continues to linger west of the area. Trade winds then decrease this upcoming week into the light to moderate range through much of the week with slight day to day fluctuations. Strengthening trades are then possible towards the end of the week as high pressure builds north of the area.
A long-period south swell has been filling in today and will peak Sunday into Monday. This will maintain elevated surf along south and west- facing shores, but it will remain below advisory levels. South shore surf will decline slightly by the middle of next week, but will be followed by a new long period swell Wednesday night or Thursday.
A medium-period northwest swell declines through the weekend as the source low pressure northwest of the Hawaiian Islands continues to weaken through Monday. This will cause small surf along north-facing shores to gradually fade today. A smaller long- period northwest swell is also forecast to move through the islands this weekend, which could prolong small surf through Sunday, but will fade by the beginning of next week. A small, long-period northwest swell is forecast to arrive on Monday and peak Tuesday, boosting north shore surf back to moderate levels. A moderate north- northwest swell is possible by the end of the week, depending on the evolution of a projected low in the north Pacific. Due to model discrepancies at this time, confidence on size is low.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain small as local winds remain fairly weak with only slight variations each day. Small, moderate-period west and east swells generated by multiple Pacific tropical cyclones are also moving through the islands this weekend.
None.
