Northeasterly trade winds will weaken through Monday. Brief passing showers will drift into the islands on the trade winds, favoring windward and mountain areas during the overnight to early morning hours. Deep tropical moisture will bring the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms across the state starting early Tuesday and lasting through at least Thursday. The forecast for next weekend is a return of trades but continued above-normal rainfall.
Gentle to moderate trades through the period. Low cigs and SHRA should impact windward and mauka locations through the overnight into the early morning hours. MVFR conds possible in heavier SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails. The next weather system arrives Tuesday through the rest of the week bringing heavier SHRA and TSTMs with IFR/MVFR conds.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc along windward Big Island. Conds should improve in the morning hours.
Issued at 321 PM HST Sun Oct 25 2026
A surface low far northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to dig south tonight and stall roughly 800 nm northeast of the state by Monday, resulting in relatively weak wind flow across the area this week. A low pressure trough will then approach the area from the southwest late Monday and bring heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms to the waters over the next several days. Winds may become locally breezy along the trough and around showers.
A short period north northwest swell will gradually lower over the next couple of days. An overlapping, moderate, mid-period northwest swell is expected to build through the day Monday, with surf reaching near advisory along north and west facing shores through Wednesday. A small north northeast swell should arrive during the second half of the week.
Overlapping south-southwest swells will keep surf along south-facing shores to around seasonal averages through Tuesday. A larger south swell may push surf up to near advisory levels Thursday and Friday.
Surf along most east-facing shores will be small through early next week, but areas exposed to wrapping northerly swells will experience periods of moderate surf through Monday. East-facing shores should also see a bump in surf if the north-northeast swell materializes during the latter half of this week.
None.
