A broad ridge of high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will dominate our weather with continued moderate to locally strong trade winds. An upper level trough east of the islands may help enhance trade showers the next few days. A new mid week upper level low moving in west of the islands may pass over the state Friday into Saturday. This feature may enhance showers.
Issued at 338 PM HST Mon May 25 2026
Moderate to breezy trades will continue for the next few days. Low cigs and SHRA possible over windward and mauka locations. MVFR conditions possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain across all islands.
Issued at 338 PM HST Mon May 25 2026
Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist through the first half of the week as a strong surface ridge remains north of the state. This will allow the Small Craft Advisory to continue across most Hawaiian coastal waters through midweek. Expect a gradual downward trend through the second half of the week and into next weekend due to a weakness forming in the ridge as a front passes far to the north.
Surf along south-facing shores will gradually lower tonight as a lingering medium-period south swell fades. A fresh long-period south swell will arrive Tuesday, then build to near the seasonal average through midweek before slowly easing Thursday. A more significant long-period south-southwest swell is expected by next weekend due to a storm-force low that passed southeast of New Zealand over the weekend. Satellite data showed a large fetch of 40 to 50 kt winds generating seas of 35 to just over 40 ft, focused toward, or just east of Hawaii along the 190-degree directional band. Expect surf to begin building locally Friday with 20+ second forerunners, then peak above/around the advisory level over the weekend. For the long range, expect a similar trend to persist through the first week of June as the active pattern persists within our swell window around New Zealand.
Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores will also continue to lower tonight as a small lingering north-northwest swell fades, but will trend up once again on Tuesday as the late season North Pacific activity continues. Although the bulk of the energy from this next swell will be focused northeast of the islands, expect long-period forerunners to arrive Tuesday, then fill in down the island chain through midweek. Above-average surf is likely by daybreak Wednesday near the peak before lowering Thursday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through midweek, then gradually lower later in the week as the trades ease.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
