Cloudy skies with generally light winds and periods of showers will persist through midweek. Although widespread heavy rain is not expected during this time, deep tropical moisture will remain in place, particularly over the eastern end of the state. Conditions are expected to deteriorate again by Friday as another upper-level disturbance and surface low approach from the west, bringing increasing chances for widespread rainfall and moderate Kona winds. With soils already saturated from this past weekend, additional rainfall could quickly lead to runoff and flooding impacts.
Issued at 305 AM HST Tue Mar 17 2026
Passing showers continue over the entire state early this morning as a surface trough moves into the state with intermittent MVFR and IFR conditions at select TAF sites across Maui County and the Big Island. Conditions look to improve over Kauai and Oahu this afternoon as the trough pushes east to Maui County. The trough will keep some showers and MVFR cigs/vsbys around Maui County and the Big Island with isolated periods of IFR conditions through the forecast period.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for Kauai, Maui, Lanai, and the Big Island and will likely be extended this morning. Kauai will likely be clear of mtn obsc by this afternoon. No other AIRMETS are currently in effect.
Issued at 305 AM HST Tue Mar 17 2026
Light and variable winds will prevailing through midweek, with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes near the coasts. A brief period of light trades will be possible by midweek as a weak ridge builds north of the state, followed by light to moderate S winds late in the week as a new system approaches from the west.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores are trending up this morning as a fresh north-northwest swell builds down the island chain. This source should peak today through Wednesday (overhead to double overhead at peak spots), then ease into the second half of the week as it shifts out of the north-northeast.
Surf along S shores will trend up later today through midweek as a fresh long period south swell arrives. This swell will peak Wednesday through Thursday (head high), then ease into the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain well below average due to the lack of trades locally and upstream. The exception will be for east facing shores exposed to north-northeast swells expected later this week/weekend.
None.
