Trade winds will ease slightly on Monday as Tropical Storm Moke passes several hundred miles south of the islands. Moisture along the northern periphery of Moke will bring wet conditions and a risk of flash flooding on the Big Island, while less rainfall is expected to impact windward sections from Maui to Kauai over the next couple of days. Trade winds will drop to moderate strength on Tuesday as Moke moves westward away from the area, with drier trade wind weather returning for the remainder of the week.
Tropical Storm Moke was centered nearly 300 hundred miles south of the Big Island and continued on its westward track. Rain bands from the tropical storm will impact windward Big Island through the overnight into early Monday, which will bring MVFR and periods of IFR conditions to the area.
Trade winds are expected to be moderate to locally strong statewide. Outside of windward Big Island, showers embedded within the trade wind flow will primarily impact windward and mountain areas, bringing periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR will prevail.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turbulence downwind of terrain due to the strengthened trade winds. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations over windward portion of the islands. An AIRMET for IFR conditions over portions of windward Big Island is also a possibility tonight.
TC SIGMET series XRAY covers Tropical Storm Moke and its convection.
Locally strong trades persist through tonight as Tropical Depression Moke passes south of the island chain and broad high pressure remains north of the state. Convection associated with this system will remain over the southern portion of the offshore waters as it tracks west, exiting the region by Monday. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight but will likely be extended for the typical windy waters of Maui County and the Big Island. Locally strong trades return Monday night into Tuesday.
Elevated winds and short period fresh swell generated by TD Moke have peaked over the eastern half of the state. Surf along E and ESE facing shores will trend down through tonight as Moke advances westward. Conditions remain choppy, however, as trades persist.
Surf along S shores remains below summer norms but still slightly elevated due a lingering small, long period SSW swell. A 3-4 foot, medium to long period S swell will arrive Monday into Tuesday in maintenance of near-normal summertime surf. A similarly sized long period S swell is then poised to arrive midweek boosting surf toward the advisory threshold.
A small, medium to long period WNW swell originating from Hurricane Lala will fade during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
