An upper level ridge moving over the area has brought a return of trade winds and cooler, drier air. Trade showers, mostly windward and mauka, will continue through Thursday. An approaching trough will turn winds out of the southeast Friday, allowing warmer more moist air to move into the region. A wet cold front appears to be headed into the state Sunday and may linger for a couple days.
Issued at 356 PM HST Tue Feb 24 2026
Satellite shows mostly cloudy skies windward and mauka, and partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Radar is picking up trade showers, mainly windward and mauka, with rainfall amounts relatively light. Winds were averaging 10-20 mph, and mostly coming out of the northeast.
An upper level ridge axis will continue to move from west to east tonight through Thursday. As it finally moves off to the east Thursday night, we will begin to feel the effects of an approaching upper trough. This will help create lower surface pressure to our northwest, and veer our surface winds out of the southeast. Warmer and more moist air will be drawn into the area, and a land- and sea-breeze pattern will likely develop this weekend.
As the upper trough axis gets closer, a cold front will move close to the western part of the state late Friday. The latest guidance depicts this front as then stalling for 24 to 48 hours before pushing well into the state Sunday. Showers are expected to increase across western islands first, then all the way to the Big Island late Sunday into Monday. These system are always difficult for guidance to accurately forecast this many days out, so expect some changes to timing and location as we go through the workweek. At this time, the potential is there for periods of heavy rain this weekend and into early next week.
Issued at 356 PM HST Tue Feb 24 2026
Moderate NE tradewinds with embedded showers continue across the state today. Showers are primarily affecting windward and mountain areas, with some spillover into leeward areas. These showers are expected to continue through this evening, before gradually decreasing from Kauai through Maui tonight. The Big Island could see showers impacting windward areas through tonight. MVFR conditions are expected within showers, and VFR will prevail elsewhere. The trade winds are expected to start shifting to an easterly direction starting tomorrow afternoon while remaining at moderate speeds.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for windward sections of Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island. Oahu and Maui could be dropped out of this AIRMET tonight as shower coverage decreases over these islands, while the Big Island may remain in the AIRMET through tonight. No other AIRMETs are in effect nor expected.
Issued at 356 PM HST Tue Feb 24 2026
Strong high pressure remains far north of the state, while a weakening surface trough lingers near the southeastern coastal waters. Northeasterly trade winds look to strengthen to fresh to strong speeds through tonight before gradually easing to locally strong speeds primarily over the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island on Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect across all Hawaiian coastal waters through tonight due to a combination of winds and mainly seas above SCA criteria, thanks to the large north northeast swell currently impacting the islands. An approaching front will likely cause winds to decline and veer out of the southeast Thursday night into Saturday.
A large, long period north-northeast (010-030 deg) swell peaked early this morning and is expected to continue to gradually decline through the end of the week. This swell will produce breaking waves at High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels across most north and east facing shores through Wednesday. Due to the direction of the large swell, exposed west facing shores of West Maui, western Molokai, and North Kohala on the Big Island will also experience High Surf Advisory conditions through early Wednesday morning. In addition to this swell, a small pulse of overlapping west- northwest swell is expected through Wednesday.
Due to the direction of the large north-northeast (010-030) swell, some overwash will continue to be possible along low-lying coastal roads and infrastructure in windward areas, especially in the Kekaha area east of Hilo. Hazardous conditions and heavy surges will continue to be possible in north facing harbors, mainly in Hilo and Kahului, and a Marine Weather Statement remains in effect to highlight this threat.
Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny to flat through the end of the week.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Kauai East-Kauai North-Kohala-Koolau Windward- Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau- Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
