Moderate trade winds will hold through Saturday, bringing modest showers to windward slopes. An upper level trough will move overhead, producing some high clouds and triggering a few heavy showers and thunderstorms interior Big Island and around Kauai. Trades will weaken and veer out of the southeast across western half of the island chain late Saturday and Sunday as low pressure deepens several hundred miles northwest of Kauai. Another passing upper level trough will bring renewed chances for isolated heavy showers Sunday and Monday. Light winds favor chances for mainly afternoon showers Tuesday into Thursday.
Issued at 818 PM HST Fri Apr 17 2026
A mix of moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds with some land and sea breezes will be in place through the weekend. Most of the short term guidance indicates a slight veering of the winds as a trough approaches from the northwest tonight through tomorrow morning, which would lend to a more sea breeze driven pattern, while the remaining models have easterly trades persisting. With these model discrepancies, confidence on the wind forecast for Saturday and Saturday night is on the lower end.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail. Brief light showers will move into windward and mountain areas on the trades, and afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain possible over interior Big Island again on Saturday. Clouds and showers may also develop over the interior portions of the smaller islands during the day on Saturday as sea breezes develop.
AIRMET Tango is in place between FL230 and FL320 due to the potential for some moderate mid level turbulence. This AIRMET will likely be needed through the night and potentially tomorrow morning.
Issued at 818 PM HST Fri Apr 17 2026 A high pressure system far north of the state will slowly drift eastward this week. Easterly trade winds continue through Saturday with Small Craft Advisory conditions in effect for the windier waters and channels near the Big Island and Maui. A series of low pressure systems developing northwest of the islands will weaken the ridge over the state, causing weak southeasterly winds to develop over the Hawaii region lasting into early next week.
A small pulse of swell energy from the north should produce a slight bump in north facing surf heights on Saturday. A small to moderate, medium period northwest swell will move into the region by Monday night and continue through Wednesday. A moderate, medium period northeast swell will arrive by Tuesday, peaking early Wednesday, and then slowly declining through Thursday.
A series of overlapping small south swells will move into the region into next week. Surf heights along east facing shores remains on the smaller side due to weaker trade winds.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
