A high pressure ridge to the north and Hurricane Lowell passing south of the Hawaiian Islands will keep breezy trade winds in the forecast on Friday. Expect decreasing wind speeds this weekend as a low pressure trough moving into the Central Pacific basin weakens the ridge north of the state. Expect continued passing showers favoring windward mountain areas with brief showers over leeward zones. Hurricane Lowell will begin to drift northward later this weekend, potentially bringing impacts to the western most islands from Monday into Tuesday. Please continue to closely monitor the weather forecast for early next week as the track and associated impacts with Hurricane Lowell will likely evolve over time.
Mostly VFR through the night with the exception of passing MVFR showers favoring windward mountain areas. Weakening trades will occur overnight with some sites gusting near 30 kts after 20z Fri. Brief showers return by Friday night with locally MVFR cigs.
Hurricane Lowell will continue to pass south of the island chain through Saturday. On this westerly track, regional trade winds will remain breezy per a tight pressure gradient between the hurricane and high pressure to the far north.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence south through west downstream of high terrain. AIRMET Tango will likely be in effect for the foreseeable future.
A strong surface high persists far north of the Hawaiian Islands and will slowly drift east through the weekend. Currently, Hurricane Lowell is passing near 450 nm south of the islands as it continues to track west. The interaction between the two will strengthen the trade winds across the coastal waters to fresh to locally near gale force. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all Hawaiian Waters through Saturday and will likely be extended.
The latest track from Hurricane Lowell from the National Hurricane Center is bringing Tropical Storm conditions to the far southern offshore waters. Although as Hurricane Lowell turns north, confidence is growing for hurricane conditions to the southwest and western offshore waters on Sunday. How close it gets to the state, is yet to be determined. As for Hurricane Karina, confidence is increasing that Karina will pass to the north and northeast of the state.
Swells from Hurricane Lowell has filled in and will remain elevated above High Surf Advisory (HSA) conditions through Saturday. A large, medium-period east swell from Hurricane Karina is filling in and will continue though the weekend, producing high end advisory level surf or warning level surf along east facing shores. The HSA has been extended in time and expanded to include east facing shores. The swell from Lowell will gradually veer from southeast towards the southwest early next week. While, the forecast for swells and seas for next week will highly depend on the eventual track and intensity of Lowell, confidence is beginning to increase for the potential of extra- large surf (exceeding warning levels) along south and western exposures early next week. Coinciding also with monthly high tides, this will create the potential for impacts to harbor entrances, channels, as well as coastal properties and infrastructure including roadways.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kona-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry- Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala-Koolau Leeward- Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
