Breezy trades weaken during the weekend as they deliver clouds and showers windward and mauka. Winds further diminish next week.
A stationary upper-level low remains anchored northeast of the state and will enhance cloud and shower activity across windward and mountain areas, resulting in occasional MVFR/IFR conditions. Otherwise, moderate to locally breezy trades are expected to prevail under VFR conditions through the forecast period.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence across leeward sides of all islands below 8000 feet due to the breezy trade winds. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration over windward areas from Kauai to the Big Island, except for Lanai. Expect these conditions to last through today.
Issued at 340 AM HST Fri May 1 2026 Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist through tonight as strong high pressure remains north-northeast of the state. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Hawaiian waters today. Winds will gradually ease over the weekend as the ridge weakens in response to a front passing far north of the islands. This downward trend should allow winds to fall below advisory levels across most, if not all, waters by the end of the weekend, with similar conditions lingering into Monday. Trades are then forecast to ease further Tuesday through midweek, potentially allowing a land and sea breeze pattern to develop near the coasts.
Surf along exposed north and west-facing shores will build above early May averages this weekend due to a relatively active northern Pacific pattern for this time of year. Although offshore buoys have yet to detect this new swell energy, long-period northwest (320 deg) forerunners are expected to arrive later this morning, leading to a gradual increase by late this afternoon. Surf heights could approach advisory levels tonight into Saturday, particularly if the swell arrives larger than currently forecast. This swell will then gradually ease through the weekend. Another, slightly smaller northwest pulse is expected early next week, maintaining elevated surf along north and west-facing shores. Looking ahead, guidance indicates yet another long-period northwest (320 deg) swell may arrive late next week, generated by a developing storm near Japan that is forecast to lift northeast near the Kuril Islands over the weekend.
Surf along south-facing shores will trend up over the weekend as a long-period south-southwest pulse arrives. Expect a peak later in the weekend and into Monday before lowering.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough today in response to the strong trades locally and upstream. A downward trend is then anticipated as the trades ease over the weekend.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
