Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue tonight, with periods of showers favoring windward mountain areas. An upper level low will briefly move over the region on Friday, enhancing threats for locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms. While widespread heavy rain is not anticipated, pockets of heavy rain with localized flooding impacts are possible through Friday night. Wetter than normal conditions will linger into Sunday.
Moderate to locally breezy trades. Low cigs and SHRA possible along windward and mauka locations with some spillover possible into leeward areas. MVFR conds in any heavier SHRA but VFR should prevail. An upper low near the state may provide the potential for periods of +RA and isol tstms, especially over western side of the state. Conds may deteriorate to IFR/MVFR in those locations.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward locations of all islands due to clds and SHRA.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for low-level turb lee of terrain due to the breezy trades.
High pressure far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades through this evening. An upper level low and its surface reflection of a surface trough north of Kauai this afternoon will turn weakening winds more east southeast from tomorrow into the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for the windier zones of Maui County and Big Island through 6 AM HST Friday morning. The close proximity of the upper low, along with disturbances coming up around the low from the south southwest, will increase the threat for widespread rain with periods of locally heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms across the entire island chain and surrounding waters tomorrow.
A small, moderate period north northwest (320-330 degree) swell will continue its peak this evening and produce near to slightly above head high surf along many north-facing shores. This swell will gradually fade from late tonight through the weekend.
A mix of small, medium to long period south swells will maintain small surf along south-facing shores into the weekend. A series of gale lows passing south of New Zealand should send a series of small south swells to the Hawaiian Islands through next week. Surf should lift to near summer averages around Sunday and this will hold through the week. Locally moderate to fresh trades will maintain rough and choppy surf along east-facing shores.
Tides will peak around 2.5 ft MLLW this weekend. Combined with ongoing trades and a small south swell bump, water levels will peak near 3.0 ft early next week. Minor overwash of low lying coastal areas will be possible during times of high tide.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
