Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through early next week. These trades are relatively dry and stable, leading to typical summertime windward and/or upslope mauka light showers. Tropical Storm Lowell has formed well southeast of the state, and is currently forecast by NHC to eventually move W to WNW. It might approach the state between roughly Sep 4 and Sep 7, but at this time range, uncertainty is quite large. NHC will continue to issue forecasts every 6 hours as Lowell develops.
For 06Z - moderate trades will persist. Mostly VFR overnight with some MVFR conditions. For Friday - expect low cigs and SHRA over windward and mauka slopes most areas today and reflected as VCSH most TAFs. MVFR conds in heavier SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days.
Issued at 319 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026
Dominant high pressure will keep moderate to locally strong trade winds in place through the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island will continue through tomorrow and will likely need to be extended for the next several days.
Surf along south facing shores will hold just below advisory levels through tomorrow as a small, long period south southwest swell continues. The swell will gradually fade through the weekend. Then another similar sized south swell is expected by the middle to the later half of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to persistent trade wind swell. A small, medium period east swell from Tropical Storm Iselle may fill in Friday, peak Saturday before slowly fading into early next week. Additional medium period east swell is possible next week, resulting from Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell. This swell will depend on their track and intensity.
Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to flat.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
