Moderate to locally breezy southeast winds continue through Tuesday night, followed by a return of trades. Showers, mainly windward and mauka, are forecast to be with us through Thursday. Drier weather and continued trades are expected by next weekend.
After increasing briefly in coverage and intensity Friday evening, showers have become isolated and light early this morning. Satellite images show partly to mostly cloudy skies over most of the state as of 2:30 AM HST.
A cold front will approach the western islands today and tonight, but stall before it reaches Kauai County. It will then remain nearly stationary Sunday before withdrawing to the northwest Sunday night through Tuesday. Aloft, a weakening trough will slide north of the area today into tonight. The waning strength of this trough is why the front will stall out and then recede.
Southeast surface winds are forecast to continue through early Wednesday. This will allow for a seabreeze to develop on the lee side of the Big Island, much as it did Friday. And therefore some enhancement of inland showers there is to be expected. These will be replaced by trades as a surface high pressure system moves close enough to exert its influence. Trades are then expected to continue through at least next weekend. Throughout this period, mainly windward and mauka showers should persist. During the southeast winds, showers will also focus a little to the south of areas typically considered windward. Once the trades return Wednesday, showers will fully return to the standard windward areas. The best chance for showers over western islands will be today through Tuesday. Early indications for Friday and beyond is for drier weather with continued trades.
Southeast winds will continue in most areas. PHKO will be a notable exception, where southwest winds are forecast in the afternoon as a seabreeze develops. Otherwise, showers focused mainly windward (shifted southeast somewhat) and mauka will continue today into this evening. VFR except for brief MVFR in heavier showers.
No AIRMETS are in effect or expected.
A cold front approaching the islands from northwest will allow winds to veer southeasterly and weaken through this weekend. Thus, the Small Craft Advisory Criteria (SCA) for the typical windy waters around Maui county and the Big Island has been cancelled. The front is then forecast to stall west of Kauai late this weekend and dissipate by early next week. Surface high pressure building back north of the region will bring a return to moderate to locally fresh easterly trades by mid-next week.
The current small to moderate, medium-period, north-northeast (020-040 degree) swell has been steadily dropping overnight, as noted on both Hilo and Pauwela buoys. Thus, the Marine Weather Statement highlighting moderate harbor surges at select north facing harbors will not be extended beyond early this morning. A moderate to large, medium- to long- period, northwest (320-340 degree) swell is expected to arrive late Sunday into Monday and last through mid next week. This swell could generate surf near High Surf Advisory levels during its peak along north and west facing shores from Monday night into Wednesday.
Small surf expected along east facing beaches this weekend due to the lack of any trade winds. Rough and choppy surf will begin to return to east facing shores by early next week as easterly trades strengthen. Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny to small through the forecast period.
None.
