Northeasterly trade winds should slightly strengthen to moderate speeds today then gradually weaken Sunday into Monday. Brief passing showers will drift into the islands on the trade winds, favoring windward and mountain areas during the overnight to early morning hours. A significant change to our weather pattern is expected next week. Deep tropical moisture will bring the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms across the state starting around Tuesday and persisting through at least Thursday.
SIGMET Romeo remains in effect just north of the state for the possibility of severe turbulence between 25,000 and 38,000 feet.
Otherwise, expect increasing showers today over Kauai and windward and mountain areas of the rest of the islands where MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible in any shower that passes through. A moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern will persist today before weakening slightly on Sunday.
No AIRMETs in effect.
Issued at 350 AM HST Sat Oct 24 2026 A surface low far north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will dig southward through the weekend and will stall roughly 800 to 900 nm northeast of Oahu on Monday, keeping the subtropical ridge just north of the area rather weak. Trade winds will be at gentle to moderate strength during much of this time, though a brief period of fresh northeast winds may accompany a shallow band of showers moving over Kauai and Oahu this afternoon into tonight. An area of low pressure is expected to move over the islands from the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing variable winds and the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Small surf along north-facing shores will begin to build rapidly this afternoon and evening as a moderate, medium-period north- northwest swell arrives. Surf will reach near seasonal average during the peak of the swell tonight into Sunday. As this swell declines on Monday, a long-period northwest swell will arrive. This swell will generate moderate surf along north- and west- facing shores through Wednesday. A small north-northeast swell will be possible during the second half of next week.
A series of small overlapping south-southwest swells will push surf back to around seasonal average today into early next week. A larger south-southwest swell may push surf above seasonal average late next week.
Surf along most east-facing shores will be small through early next week, but areas exposed to wrapping northerly swells will experience periods of moderate surf late Saturday through Monday. East-facing shores should also see a bump in surf if the north- northeast swell materialized during the latter half of next week.
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