Breezy trades will continue for one more day, but will ease by this evening. As a disturbance moves overhead today, expect increasing chances for heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms over the western end of the state, first for Kauai later today and then for islands farther east by Saturday. The wet weather will continue into early next week as a frontal boundary sinks back southward over the state. Strengthening trades will return a more typical windward and mauka-focused shower pattern, followed by more stable conditions by mid to late next week.
Issued at 356 AM HST Fri Feb 20 2026
Another breezy day is in store across the island chain today as a stationary front is located to the west of the state this morning with high pressure centered well to the north. It will not be as windy as previous days, however, and winds are expected to gradually decline by this evening. The front remains west of the offshore waters area at this time, and widespread cloud cover and a line of thunderstorms along this feature dominate the regional satellite imagery. Ahead of the front, thick high clouds have spread farther east over the island chain. Latest radar imagery shows a few showers embedded within the trades favoring windward and mauka sections of the islands early this morning. Upstream of the islands, an area of deeper moisture is forecast to move across the islands today, increasing windward and mauka showers, even as trade winds gradually ease and veer slightly.
An axis of deep moisture will approach from the west today as well as an upper-level trough swings overhead. The combination of increasing moisture and instability will bring the potential for localized flooding and isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon into Saturday, particularly across the western end of the state. Latest guidance continues to indicate cool temperatures aloft, with 500mb temperatures dipping down to near -13C. Although surface dewpoints may only reach into the mid-60s, continue to think there will be enough moisture, instability, and lift in the region to at least introduce a brief period of flooding potential across Kauai County, as well as some isolated thunderstorms. Additionally, the latest HREF guidance and CAMs do show the potential for heavy rain across Kauai during the evening, so the Flood Watch remains unchanged, and is in place for Niihau and Kauai from this afternoon through early Saturday morning. Hi-res guidance also suggests that there could be a brief window of heavy rain potential for Oahu as well early Saturday, but confidence is not high enough at this time to expand the watch.
Beyond the weekend, model guidance suggests that between Sunday night and Tuesday, moisture pooled along a horizontally-oriented frontal boundary will move back southward down the island chain as high pressure builds to the north between two nearby lows. This boundary will increase windward and mauka showers again as it moves through, followed by strengthening trade winds. By the second half of next week, mid-level ridging is expected to build overhead, supporting a more stable pattern with moderate to breezy trade winds.
Issued at 1000 AM HST Thu Feb 19 2026
Trade winds will weaken this evening as the pressure gradient weakens and a low pressure system moves toward the islands from the west. Windward showers are expected to increase today, with widespread activity moving in tonight and Saturday. We expect localized MVFR and isolated IFR as these showers spread eastward late today and tonight, reaching Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, and potentially effecting the rest of Maui county by daybreak Saturday.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration above 2 kft for east Maui and for north and east Big Island as shower activity increases across the area.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000 feet over leeward sides of the islands as a result of continued breezy low level winds, as well as moderate turbulence aloft between 20kft and 38kft. Conditions are expected to improve as winds weaken through the period.
Issued at 356 AM HST Fri Feb 20 2026
Strong trades will persist today, then begin to ease over the weekend as a gale nearby to the northwest lifts north- northwestward and away from the region. Winds may become light enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established over the weekend. Seas will respond by gradually lowering, likely falling below the 10 ft Small Craft Advisory level by Saturday. In addition to the winds and seas, expect a wet pattern with isolated thunderstorms to develop by tonight as an upper disturbance moves over the state.
Surf along exposed east-facing shores will remain rough, with heights hovering around advisory levels today. A downward trend will follow over the weekend as winds diminish locally and upstream of the state.
Surf along exposed north- and east-facing shores will quickly build through the day Monday as a long-period north-northeast swell from a broad storm-force low evolves off the northwest Pacific coast this weekend. A large area of northerly gales between this system and a 1048 mb blocking high centered over the Aleutians will expand southward Friday through the weekend, with the head of the fetch reaching less than 1,000 nautical miles from the state. Heights will reach warning levels for exposed north- and east-facing shores by late Monday through Tuesday. Although a gradual downward trend is anticipated by midweek, additional pulses from this same system will keep surf above advisory levels for east-facing shores through much of the week. This swell direction will bring surf into some typically protected areas such as Kua Bay, West Maui, and exposed shores of Lanai.
Other impacts from this north-northeast swell direction could include significant erosion along some coasts and accretion at other locations as sand shifts opposite the typical swell direction, particularly along north-facing shores. Additionally, overwash along vulnerable sections of coastline and roadways will be possible beginning Monday night during high tide cycles. Mariners can also anticipate harbor surges in Kahului and Hilo.
Surf along exposed west-facing shores will rise early next week as a long-period northwest swell arrives from a broad storm-force low currently located over the far northwest Pacific near the Kurils.
Flood Watch from 3 PM HST this afternoon through late tonight for Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Niihau.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island East-Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kauai East-Kauai South-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West- Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters- Pailolo Channel.
