Locally breezy trade winds will weaken to moderate levels today and Wednesday, then strengthen Thursday into the weekend. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with showers more common today and Wednesday compared to later in the week or this coming weekend.
Trades will weaken slightly and veer out of a more easterly direction through tonight. Downstream radar and satellite imagery suggest that a band of moisture will focus more widespread showers over Kauai and Oahu today into tonight with periods of MVFR conditions likely. Showers will primarily impact windward areas, with some spillover into leeward sites possible. Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR is broadly anticipated with scattered windward showers.
AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for mountain obscuration over north through east facing portions of Oahu due to widespread low clouds and showers. This AIRMET may need to be expanded to include Kauai later this morning.
Issued at 240 AM HST Tue Jul 14 2026 Trade winds will gradually ease today as the high pressure north of the islands lifts northeast and weakens. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled as winds have dropped below criteria. These lighter trades should continue through Wednesday night, then may increase a bit Thursday and Friday as high pressure northeast of the islands drops a bit further south and tightens up the local pressure gradient.
The current small, long-period southwest swell will gradually decline through the middle of the week. A series of overlapping small south and southwest swell should produce some rideable surf through next weekend, with perhaps a more sizable south swell moving in early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will steadily decline through Wednesday. Surf will then hold steady at slightly below seasonal averages along east facing shores through the weekend.
A series of small, long to medium period west to west-northwest swells generated by former Super Typhoon Bavi will be possible throughout the rest of the week. Otherwise, no significant north or northwest swells are expected, so surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny.
Peak monthly high tides combined with water levels that are running slightly higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is possible around the daily peak tide, which will be during the afternoon hours. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through 6 PM this evening.
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