Benign weather continues into Thursday. A Kona low then develops west of the islands bringing widespread rain and potential flash flooding Thursday evening through the weekend.
Issued at 936 AM HST Wed Mar 18 2026
Low cigs and shower activity will improve through the day as a system passes to the east of the islands. VFR conditions are expected to prevail as a result across all sites, with mainly light land-sea breezes and sct-bkn cigs as another system begins to move toward the islands.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over the Big Island at or above 020, but this is expected to shift later in the day with clouds expected to at least partially clear out. No other AIRMETs are in effect at this time.
Issued at 936 AM HST Wed Mar 18 2026
Light to locally moderate east to southeast winds will slowly strengthen to moderate speeds and veer south by Thursday as a ridge strengthens northeast of the state and a disturbance develops west of the state. By Friday, the disturbance will further develop into a low over or near the far northwest offshore waters before lifting north on Saturday. Winds will shift out of the south southwest during this time at moderate speeds. Winds will become light and variable as the low shifts northeast of state with a trailing trough draped over the state. A strong high will build in behind this disturbance with moderate to locally strong northeast winds returning during the first half of next week.
Offshore NDBC buoy northwest appears to have peaked and is currently subsiding. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon for north facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Maui. Surf will gradually decline later this morning through Friday as the swell shifts out of the north and north- northeast with a small reinforcing pulse Saturday. A new small to moderate long period west- northwest swell is expected to arrive late Saturday and hold through early next week.
Surf along south shores will see moderate surf just below High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria as a long period south swell peaks today and holds through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will remain well below average due to the lack of trades locally and upstream. The exception will be for east facing shores exposed to north- northeast swells Thursday through the weekend.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai North- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North- Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Windward Haleakala.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
