Light to moderate trades with local land and sea breezes will become moderate to locally fresh on Tuesday as winds strengthen a little. Trade winds then weaken on Wednesday, followed by restrengthening towards the end of the week into the weekend. Showers overall will be light and focus over windward and mountain areas with light leeward cloud buildups today. More shower coverage is expected tonight through tomorrow morning for the Big Island due to a weak trough transiting then dissipating tomorrow. Drier conditions take hold by mid week followed by slightly wetter trades this weekend.
Generally light to occasionally moderate trades will persist through the period. Lighter winds may allow localized sea breezes to develop during the daytime hours. Thickening afternoon clouds with scattered showers over windward-facing slopes is possible. MVFR ceilings and visibilities within periods of passing showers over eastern-facing Big Island regions will likely impact HTO. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over most terminals.
AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for mountain obscuration along Big Island's east and southeast-facing slopes until further notice.
Issued at 308 PM HST Mon Oct 12 2026
Gentle to moderate trade winds will gradually increase from east to west through Tuesday as a weak low fills northwest of Kauai and a surface ridge builds north of the state. Moderate to locally fresh trades will strengthen Thursday as surface high pressure builds far north of the state, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will likely be needed for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui. Trades will further strengthen Friday into the weekend and may require an expansion of the SCA to additional waters.
Small surf will persist along north facing shores into the evening. A fresh, long period northwest swell will build late tonight and Tuesday, pushing surf along north and west facing shores to near seasonal average through Wednesday. This swell will decline Thursday and Friday. A medium period north- northwest swell will build late Friday and will be the main source to produce surf around seasonal average during the weekend, though a small longer period northwest swell will also arrive during the weekend.
South shore surf will remain above seasonal average through the afternoon then gradually lower tonight through Wednesday as a long period south-southwest swell slowly declines. Another long period south swell will produce surf near seasonal average Friday and Saturday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Thursday as small wind waves and tiny east swell persist. Choppy surf will increase slightly as trade winds strengthen across the region Friday into the weekend.
None.
