Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

952 am hst Tue Oct 13 2026

Synopsis

Moderate trades will build back into the region today. A weak trough near the Big Island this morning is producing showers and clouds over the eastern end of the island chain. As this trough weakens and moves westward, expect showers to trend down by tonight. Elsewhere, drier conditions will prevail. Trade winds are anticipated to become breezy by the end of the week as high pressure strengthens north of the state. Slightly wetter trades will be possible this weekend.

Aviation

Gentle to moderate trades will persist today with localized sea breezes developing over sheltered leeward areas. This should allow for afternoon clouds and a few showers over select leeward areas. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the day with brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the afternoon.

No AIRMET's are in effect.

Marine

Issued at 358 AM HST Tue Oct 13 2026 Gentle to moderate trade winds will persist through Wednesday as as a surface ridge remains anchored far northeast of the state and a weak trough dissipates near the Big Island. Trades will strengthen to moderate to locally fresh Thursday as surface high pressure builds far north of the state. Trades will further strengthen to fresh to locally strong late Friday through the weekend and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will likely be needed for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui.

A fresh, long period northwest swell will build today, pushing surf along north and west facing shores to near seasonal averages through Wednesday. This swell will decline Thursday and Friday. By late Friday, a medium period north- northwest swell will build and once again help bring surf to near seasonal averages through the weekend.

South shore surf will remain elevated through Wednesday as a long period south- southwest swell slowly declines. Another long period south swell will help produce surf near seasonal average Thursday into early this weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Thursday as small wind waves and tiny east swell persist. Choppy surf will increase slightly as trade winds strengthen across the region Friday into the weekend.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

None.

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