Breezy easterly trade winds will persist through tonight, then ease into the light to moderate range from Thursday through Saturday. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with a period of increased shower activity through early Thursday as a band of moisture moves through the islands. A few afternoon clouds and showers may develop over interior and leeward areas Thursday through Saturday where localized sea breezes form. Trade winds are expected to strengthen again late this weekend and into early next week.
Trade winds will ease slightly over the next couple of days as a surface ridge north of the islands weakens. Low cigs and SHRA riding in on the trades should impact windward and mauka locations this evening. Some isol IFR to MVFR conds possible otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward locations of Oahu to the Big Island.
A surface ridge north of the area will weaken Thursday through Saturday as a front passes far north of the state. Moderate to fresh trades will ease into the gentle to moderate category during this time with localized land and sea breezes possible. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will return Sunday through early next week as the surface ridges strengthens north of the state.
A series of small pulses of south- southwest swells will fill in Thursday into Friday keeping near average surf along south facing shores.
Long-period energy from a storm that passed within our swell window around New Zealand earlier this week is expected to gradually fill in locally late Friday through the weekend. Wave models have this swell peaking Sunday into Monday that will drive surf heights near or above warning levels. This swell will coincide with the peak monthly tides and will likely lead to significant wave runup and minor coastal flooding during the first half of next week, particularly during the peak daily high tide cycles. South shore surf will remain elevated through much of next week due to the slow decline of this large south swell and a series of more overlapping southerly swells.
East shore surf will slowly decline below seasonal averages through the the weekend as trades ease, then pick up a notch next week as more breezy trades return. No significant swells expected elsewhere.
None.
