Strong pressure gradient between Hurricane Lowell and the subtropical high will bring windy conditions through Friday, before tapering this weekend. Showers will focus windward and mauka. Hurricane Lowell will approach the western end of the main Hawaiian Islands late Sunday, bringing possible surf, rain, wind and flooding impacts particularly to the western portion of the state. The extent of impacts will be determined by the eventual track of Lowell.
Hurricane Lowell is 450 miles SSW of Hilo and 605 miles SSE of Lihue at the 5 am HST NHC advisory. Strong gradient winds resulting from the pressure difference between the storm and the subtropical high the north is resulting in strong trade winds across the islands today. Scattered clouds and showers moving in with the trades will focus across windward slopes today and Friday, but may occasionally reach leeward sides of the smaller islands. A Wind Advisory is in effect through tonight for portions of Oahu, Maui County and Big Island with sustained winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph. This advisory may need to be extended into Friday, but by Saturday, a weekend Hurricane Karina will begin to disrupt the trade wind flow and likely weaken the speeds a bit. Typical summertime trade winds and night/early morning windward showers are forecast Saturday and through the day Sunday.
Attention will shift late Sunday into early next week to the forecast track of Hurricane Lowell, currently a category 4 hurricane and around 600 miles southeast of Lihue. The National Hurricane Center track forecast moves Lowell slowly westward through Friday night with an abrupt northward turn and increase in forward speed on Saturday. While confidence is low whether a direct impact will occur or not, Lowell will likely bring some impacts to the state including storm surge, high surf, wind, and rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii, particularly as it moves closest to Kauai County Monday and Monday night. The extent of these impacts could range from minor to major depending on the eventual path of the storm, and more specifically when the abrupt turn to the north occurs. Regardless, Lowell is forecast to be a category 3 hurricane at its closest proximity. Coastal inundation could also be exacerbated by the peak monthly high tides that are expected to occur Monday. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to the advice of officials, and ensure they have their hurricane plan and supply kit in place.
Please visit the hurricanes.gov page for the official NHC forecast for Lowell.
On Tuesday, winds will weaken shift south to southeastly in the wake of Lowell, but lingering shower bands may occur through the day. Karina will weaken to a remnant low and eventually be absorbed into Lowell north of the state midweek. Winds will eventually shift back to trades during the second half of the week with no significant weather events expected.
Another wet start (wet runways for PHNL and PHLI) with VCSH to SHRA along windward sides of the islands into early this afternoon. Despite some showers mostly VFR with lower MVFR due to showers/clouds. Still projecting stronger winds today with wind gusts over 30 kts, especially PHNL, PHMK, and PHOG. VCSH returns to the same areas this evening and overnight with locally MVFR cigs returning.
Hurricane Lowell will continue to pass south of the island chain the next couple of days. On this westerly track, regional trade winds will remain strong per a tight pressure gradient between the hurricane and high pressure to the far north.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence south through west downstream of high terrain. AIRMET Tango will likely be in effect for the foreseeable future.
A strong surface high persists far north of the Hawaiian Islands. Hurricane Lowell is passing to the south. The interaction between the two will strengthen the trade winds across the coastal waters to fresh to locally near gale force. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all Hawaiian Waters through 6AM Friday and will likely be extended.
Confidence is growing in regards to the track of Lowell bringing hurricane conditions to the southwest and western offshore waters. How close it gets to the state, is yet to be determined. As for Hurricane Karina, confidence is increasing that Karina will pass to the north and northeast of the state.
Swells from Hurricane Lowell has filled in this morning and will remain at High Surf Advisory (HSA) level conditions potentially through early next week as swells from Lowell will gradually veer from southeast to south, then eventually towards the southwest early next week. While, the forecast for swells and seas for next week will highly depend on the eventual track and intensity of Lowell, confidence is beginning to increase for the potential of extra- large surf (exceeding warning levels) along south and western exposures early next week. Additionally, the current moderate long period south swell will decline through the rest of the week.
A large, medium-period east swell from Hurricane Karina will steadily fill in Friday into the weekend and will likely produce high end advisory level surf or warning level surf along east facing shores by this weekend.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai West- Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Waianae Coast-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West- Maui Leeward West-Kohala-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain- Koolau Leeward-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters-
