A drier and more stable trade wind pattern is expected through the weekend and into at least the middle of next week. Showers should be mostly focused along windward and mauka locations through the period. Nights will be cool in sheltered areas this weekend.
Mostly dry and breezy northeast trade wind conditions will prevail across the island chain over the next 24 h. As a result, AIRMET Tango continues for low-level turbulence across leeward areas of all islands. Brief periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible in passing showers, mainly for windward sites.
A low pressure system east-northeast of the islands and a high pressure system to the far north-northwest of the Hawaii region will keep northeasterly trade winds in the forecast through the week. A scatterometer pass this afternoon showed more extensive small craft winds through the Kaiwi and Kauai Channels, which has prompted an expansion of the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) which remains in effect through early Thursday morning. Winds will briefly ease on Thursday and Friday, likely falling below SCA thresholds. High pressure drops south from the Bering Sea through this weekend, leading to a strengthening pressure gradient and stronger trade winds through and north of the Hawaiian Islands. Fresh to strong trade winds bring a return of SCA conditions from Saturday into the first half of next week.
The forerunners of a small northwest swell have reached the northwest buoys and will arrive along the north shores tonight. The medium period swell is expected to peak around 3 feet on Thursday before gradually declining through the weekend. For east facing shores, short period wind wave energy from northeasterly trade winds will hold into the weekend. Strengthening northeasterly winds this weekend and a swath of gales associated with a low around one thousand miles northeast of the islands will lead to the potential for high surf advisories along north and east facing shores from Sunday into early next week.
For south facing shores, small background energy pulses will bring surf heights back above flat conditions Thursday evening into early next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
