Tropical Storm Nolo will intensity to a hurricane as it drifts northward toward Big Island during the next couple of days. Rainfall along the northern edge of the system will gradually increase across the Big Island and Maui, leading to the potential for significant to locally catastrophic flooding mainly on windward and southeast Big Island. While uncertainty in the track of the tropical cyclone is higher than normal, Big Island remains under a Hurricane Watch with the potential for damaging winds Friday and Saturday. Nolo is expected to move westward on Sunday, but all interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of the system as impacts could persist through the weekend.
Breezy and gusty trades for the next few days. Tropical Storm Nolo is about 300 miles south of the Big Island and moving WNW at 5 kt. As this gets closer expect winds to increase especially across the eastern end of the state. Showers will increase and be heavy at times. TSTMs are possible but confidence is low on exactly where as such elected not to include those in the TAFs at this time. While conds are MVFR/VFR now, conds will deteriorate as Nolo nears. LIFR to MVFR possible across the Big Island with areas on the western end of the state being MVFR/VFR.
TC SIGMET Series Oscar covers Tropical Storm Nolo.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for Maui and the Big Island. Expect this to expand as Tropical Storm Nolo gets closer.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turb lee of terrain.
Issued at 457 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2026 Main changes with the afternoon package are an expansion of the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for a combination of winds and seas over the next couple of days. The SCA continues for typical windier areas tonight, and expands to the central waters tomorrow, and then to Kauai waters Friday. Friday morning the waters near the Big Island transition from a SCA to the Hurricane Watch for Tropical Storm Nolo.
Tropical Storm Nolo is moving slowly northward towards the islands, and will bring increasing swell, winds and rainfall beginning Thursday. While waters near the Big Island are under a Hurricane Watch now, additional waters may need to be added to tropical watches or warnings, depending on the exact track of Nolo is determined with future model runs. Nolo is currently expected to continue on a northward trend, before a turn to the west, but is expected to impact the coastal waters through the weekend.
The current south-southwest swell continue to fade, and a moderate southwest swell will build in Friday, and last into the weekend, with surf peaking near advisory levels. Tropical Storm Nolo is expected to strengthen, and will likely produce a southerly swell that will bring large and rough surf particularly to the south facing shores of the Big Island.
A new small northwest swell will fill in this weekend keeping surf slightly elevated along north and west facing shores. East facing shores will maintain rough, short period wind waves generated from the breezy trade winds.
Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North- Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.
Hurricane Watch for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.
Hurricane Watch for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters- Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM HST Saturday for Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
