Key MESSAGE 1, A weak area of low pressure meandering off the NC coast will continue to slowly drift away from the region. Before that happens, light nerly flow and partly sunny conditions will make for seasonably pleasant temperatures the next several days. Highs will be in the mid 80s to around 90 inland to low 80s coast on Tuesday, and warm slowly into the low 90s inland by Wednesday and mid 90s on Thursday. Despite the warming, relatively low TD's in the 60s to around 70 will not make it feel much hotter, with heat indices no higher than the 90s through Wednesday, possibly reaching around 100 by Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The advertised heat and humidity build into ENC from the north and west Friday into the weekend. High impact heat and humidity is expected, as the peak of it will be during the busy 4th of July holiday weekend (Saturday through Monday) with highs expected to reach well into the 90s inland, possibly reaching 100 in some locales, with upper 80s to mid 90s beaches. The combination of the heat and humidity will push heat indices towards the 105 degree mark or slightly higher this weekend. Overnight lows will also be warm due to the increased TD's, with lows around 80 near the coast, and mid 70s interior.
NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values peak Saturday and Sunday in the major (coast) to extreme (inland) range. The chance for extreme heat risk has come down a bit on Saturday and Sunday to around 40-60% inland with the compounding days and little relief during the nighttime periods. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside this weekend into early next week should monitor the forecast trends.
With the ridge of high pressure building in, a cap will develop with little to no shower or thunderstorm relief esp on Saturday. On Sunday, the ridge may break down just enough for some scattered storms to develop mainly inland zones, but the chance for rain is only 20-40% at this time.
12z Tuesday through Saturday IFR stratus has expected across rtes and is affecting all TAF sites except ISO but is advecting toward them, so a period of IFR cigs is probable through 13-14z. Cigs will begin to lift and scatter out by mid morning with daytime heating. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with NE winds around 10 kt this afternoon. Probs for status are even lower late tonight, around 20-30% in the HREF.
Outlook (Wednesday through Sat): Dry weather is expected to prevail with pred VFR conditions, but could see patchy fog and low stratus each morning. Winds will be light through the period with high pres in vicinity.
The weak low offshore will continue to produce nerly winds around 10-20 kt early this morning, then will gradually diminish and veer to Ely late today and tonight. Seas will generally be around 3-5 ft but have seen occasionally up to 6 ft at Diamond Shoals Buoy so will continue the SCA for the central waters through Tuesday night with WNA wave and NWPS keeping 6-7 ft seas across the outer portions of the zones.
Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): The Bermuda high becomes dominant mid to late week with light winds 5-15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 5 am EDT Wednesday for amz152-154.
