Key MESSAGE 1, Previously mentioned cold front has moved offshore as of this update with lingering light rain along the Crystal Coast and OBX. Any leftover rain is forecast to move offshore within the next few hours as the area gradually drys out with high pressure building in from the north. As of 2PM, MRMS suggests around 1.5-2.5" with locally higher amounts in Downeast Carteret County and near the immediate coast have fallen along the Crystal Coast, 0.25-0.75" of rain has fallen along the NOBX and Inner Coastal Plain and 0.5-1.25" of rain has fallen across the western Coastal Plain bringing some much needed rain to the area.
Surface low associated with this aforementioned cold front has been recently analyzed about 200 miles east of Delaware. This low is forecast to deepen through tonight while moving little, tightening the pressure gradient between this low and a ridge of high pressure centered to the north and west. This will bring breezy N'rly winds and CAA to ENC this evening and tonight with gusts around 20-30 mph. Temps have already begun to lower this afternoon as ENC seeing temps falling into the 50s to low 60s. Temps will continue to fall tonight with lows forecast to be in the upper 40s to near 50 while highs tomorrow return are slightly below avg with temps only getting into the upper 50s to 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Not much change in forecast thinking going forward as a progressive pattern will continue through the week with another low pressure system progged to push across the area late Wednesday followed by another southern stream system potentially impacting the area next weekend. Latest guidance in best agreement with the mid week system while run to run consistency among the models continues to be poor for the system next weekend with the possibility for it to be suppressed to the south, so confidence is not that high in the forecast details but it is encouraging to see a more active pattern in the models. While rainfall amounts through the week will likely not have a tremendous impact with alleviating the drought, hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will help reduce the wildfire threat across the region.
18z Sunday through Friday Behind a cold front this afternoon, rain showers and low clouds remain along the NC coast. Ifr conditions and rain showers will continue for the next couple of hours along the coast, generally along and east of US 17, but may hold on for most of tonight across the Outer Banks. Across the coastal plain, ceilings have improved to low end MVFR levels, and that improvement is expected to continue the rest of the afternoon. Mvfr ceilings ranging from 1000-2000 ft are expected tonight for all the TAF sites, with conditions improving to VFR by mid morning across the coastal plain, and early afternoon along the US 17 corridor. Farther east and over the Outer Banks, MVFR conditions may persist for most of tomorrow.
Outlook: High pressure and generally VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Another front and weak low may bring sub VFR with some showers on Thursday, exiting on Friday.
As expected marine conditions have quickly deteriorated today as the pressure gradient tightens between a deepening low to our north and east and an incoming ridge of high pressure centered to the north. Rain and thunderstorm activity is gradually pushing further out to sea but could see a few rumbles of thunder across our far offshore waters into tonight before precip ends. In addition to this, much of the area is already seeing N-NE winds at 20-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts while seas have begun to build north of Cape Hatteras to 5-8 ft with 4-6 ft seas noted south of Hatteras. These hazardous marine conditions will remain in place through tonight keeping ongoing small craft advisories in place. Cannot rule out a few gusts approaching Gale force this evening but overall probabilities are less than 40%. Seas will continue to build this afternoon peaking around 7-10 ft north of Cape Hatteras and 5-8 ft south of Cape Hatteras tonight. Conditions will then begin to gradually ease on Monday as the gradient weakens as deepening low pushes further out to sea allowing for winds across the inland waters to decrease to 15-20 kts by Mon evening ending small craft conditions here. Along the coastal waters winds will take slightly longer to ease and with elevated swell still impacting the area, expect small craft conditions to last beyond Mon at these locations.
Outlook: Northerly winds continue to ease on Tue becoming less than 15 kt as high pressure builds overhead. Seas will remain elevated, however, with SCA conditions persisting across portions of the nearshore coastal waters into Wednesday. Another low pressure system is progged to pass north of the area Wednesday night and could see minor SCA conditions over portions of the nearshore coastal waters redevelop Wednesday night into Thursday.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Monday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory until 10 pm EDT Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 10 am EDT Monday for amz136-137. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Wednesday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Wednesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz156-158.
