Key message 1,
An arctic cold front will push through the area early this morning, with scattered areas of light showers out ahead of it, mainly along the coast. Temps are around 45 degrees where precip is falling and it is expected to move out before temps plummet behind the front, so not anticipating any impacts during the pre-dawn hours.
Arctic high pressure builds into the area from the north on today with very cold and dry airmass, while at the same time mid and upper level fgen inc ahead of next system to the west. With isentropic ascent increasing through the afternoon, light mixed precip may break out in the afternoon for all of ENC and cont the winter wx advisory for all zones except E Carteret and Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. While not guaranteed to precipitate, anything that falls will be freezing drizzle, light sleet, or snow and impacts may occur esp on bridges and overpasses with temps near or below freezing all day with the widespread cloud cover. Cold apparent temperatures will develop this morning and continue the cold wx advisory for apparent T's of less than 15 degrees through noon and did expand to include a few additional zones that are now forecast to meet criteria.
By tonight into Sunday, low pressure will develop along stalled front, coastal trough offshore and begin to more northeastward and penetrate into Eastern NC through the overnight. Substantial warming aloft begins in earnest Sat night, with 850mb temps fcst to reach between 5-10C by daybreak Sunday, while stubborn CAD remains at the sfc west of Hwy 17. Little change in 00z model guidance, which brings sfc warming above freezing from E to W across ENC through the overnight, limiting duration of icing for areas along and east of Hwy 17 and thus winter weather advisory ending during the evening to early morning hours. West of Hwy 17, the CAD holds strong through Sunday morning, leading to more prolonged QPF at below freezing temps. Icing totals remain in the .10-.20" range, which is just shy of warning criteria, though does not diminish the fact that travel impacts will be high in these zones. Cad still expected to erode further inland along with dry slot moving into ENC and ending the advisory early afternoon on track.
Sunday night all of ENC in warm sector with temps on the coast cont to rise through the 50s to low 60s, and inland areas remaining cool but above freezing in the upper 30s to near 40. Out ahead of sfc front, rain shower chances inc again with some instability on the coast, and QPF/pops raised as a result. Rain quickly ends by around sunrise Mon with CAA ensuing and temps falling through the afternoon to below freezing again by Mon evening.
Regarding winds with arctic front tonight and Sat morning, sustained winds of 30-40 mph on the OBX have prompted wind advisory to be issued along with gales for all waters except the Pamlico/Pungo Rivers. Water level rises may rise a bit above normal for southern areas of Pamlico Sound, but brief surge and below normal water levels due to drought conditions should limit any impacts.
key message 2,
Arctic high pressure will build in behind the departing system through much of next week. Temperatures will be quite a bit below normal, with highs in the 30-45 degree range, and lows in the 15-25 degree range. Wind chill values will be at or below 15 degrees for Monday night and Tuesday morning. A robust upper trough and reinforcing cold front will move through mid week. Moisture is somewhat limited but could see snow showers producing minor accumulations. The air mass behind this front appears even colder, with wind chills approaching 0 for Friday and Saturday mornings.
12z Saturday through Wednesday VFR flight cats forecast through most of day today. Winds becoming NNEerly increasing to 10-15G20-25kt behind strong cold front. These winds will pose crosswind concerns for EWN on RWY14/32. There may be some additional scattered light showers (all liquid) through the overnight hours, but bulk of this activity is forecast to remain along the immediate coast and offshore.
Winds will slightly veer to the NE with gusts to 15-20 kt continuing through the day. Sleet, snow, and freezing rain are possible at all terminals from SAT evening onward, though inland terminals may see spotty light instances of wintry precip in the afternoon. Precip will be scattered in nature, but even a small amount could become hazardous and create a glaze, especially on elevated surfaces. Iso and PGV are of greatest concern as the Wern edge of the FA is where confidence is greatest in impactful ice accretion. However, all terminals have the potential to be impacted. The bulk of freezing rain is expected to fall overnight tonight and transition back to rain through SUN.
VFR persists until sunset tonight when CIGs lower to MVFR, further lowering to IFR or lower in the early morning hours SUN.
Outlook: ISO and PGV are expected to receive the greatest ice accumulations while OAJ and EWN have less than a 10% chance of receiving a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will warm to above freezing by Sunday afternoon, changing any remaining precip back to rain. Widespread IFR or lower CIGs and LLWS concerns are expected through all of SUN. Flight cats improve MON as Arctic high pressure builds in lasting through much of next week with predominantly VFR flight cats expected.
An Arctic front is pushing south across the waters early this morning. Latest obs show N winds in the 25-35 kt range with gusts to around 40 with seas 3-6 ft across the northern half of the waters, while to the south winds are around 10 kt lower, however will quickly increase over the next few hours. Gale Warnings for all zones except Pamlico/Pungo rivers which are in SCA, with winds slowly diminishing from north to south through the day this afternoon.
Tonight through Tuesday: Winds become E-SE tonight then swrly on Sunday as low pressure tracks just inland from the coast. Strong SCA to low end gales redevelop with swrly strong gradient in WAA flow on the Gulf waters later Sunday, with SCA or lower winds on remaining waters. Next cold front moves through Sunday night into Monday morning with strong nwrly CAA winds redeveloping later Monday into Monday night. Winds and seas more benign into mid week.
Nc, cold weather advisory until 1 pm EST this afternoon for ncz029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-193-203. Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 pm EST Sunday for ncz029-044-079-090-091. Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am EST Sunday for ncz045-080-092-193-198. Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ncz046-047-081-094-194-195-199-203. Wind advisory until 9 am EST this morning for ncz203. Wind advisory until noon EST today for ncz204-205. Marine, gale warning until 8 am EST this morning for amz131-230-231. Gale warning until noon EST today for amz135-152-154. Small craft advisory until 10 pm EST this evening for amz136. Gale warning until 9 am EST this morning for amz137-150. Gale warning until 3 pm EST this afternoon for amz156-158.
