Arctic high pressure crests over ENC today into tonight. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another strong cold front then moves through Thursday night with high pressure for the end of the week into the weekend.
Through today As of 3 AM Mon,
Key Messages:
- A Cold Weather Advisory is in place through this morning.
Winds chills dropped into the single digits as strong CAA brought breezy and cold conditions. Recovery will be slow today, as thicknesses on par with the lower end of guidance, with highs struggling to rise above freezing in the nern zones, esp areas that received light snow accums last night. Rest of the area should see temps rise through the mid 30s by this afternoon. The good news is that winds will be on the decrease as the day goes on with high pres approaching and full sunshine.
Tonight As of 3 AM Tue,
Key Messages:
- Coldest night of the season thus far for some as lows drop into the teens under clear skies and calm winds tonight.
- Possible record lows tonight (see climate section below).
Arctic high pres will crest over ENC tonight. The ridge axis will be centered over srn portions of ENC, and with very dry airmass in place and calm/light wind, ideal radiational cooling will be in place. Target of opportunity over model guidance as models struggle to depict temps cold enough under these regimes. Coldest areas will be swrn and srn zones near Croatan/Hoffman/Holly Shelter regions, and nern mainland zones. Temps drop to the mid teens here, and will be close to cold wx advisory thresholds once again. Followed close to the developmental NBM 5.0 which has shown strong performance in radiational cooling regimes.
Tuesday through Sunday As of 3 AM Mon,
Tuesday through Thursday, High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-30%) and Thursday night (60-70%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region. Left in a 20% thunder prob, but instability is very slim on latest 15/00Z model suite.
Friday through Saturday, Cold front pushes east by week's end, with dry conditions returning. Zonal flow ensues behind fropa, so temps will actually be above climo behind it, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
08z Monday through Friday As of 1245 AM Monday,
Key Messages
- Gusty winds (20-30kt+) to continue for much of the night
- VFR conditions expected through Monday night
No real changes to the forecast as gusty post-frontal winds will continue across ENC over the next few hours. During this time, gusts of 15-25kt will be common at all ENC TAF sites, with higher gusts of 30-35kt+ across the Outer Banks. Winds should finally decrease to less than 10kt by Monday morning, and become less gusty. For the TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. East of the TAF sites (ie. Near the Outer Banks), low clouds and scattered flurries will remain possible for several hours. No snow accumulations, or reductions to VIS, are expected. On Monday, periods of low clouds may continue to impact the Outer Banks.
Outlook: VFR conditions persist through midweek before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system.
As of 3 AM Mon,
Key Messages:
- Strong winds abate today as high pres approaches.
- Gale conditions possible for the Gulf Stream waters Thursday night to early Friday as next cold front approaches, with SCA possible rest of the marine waters.
Today, Winds die down quickly through the day, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions Monday morning. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Ocracoke today but dropping below 6 ft by late this morning.
Tuesday through Thursday, Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 5-15 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft, with the potential for some 6-footers across the Gulf Stream Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday night into Friday, Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. With warm offshore waters, gale conditions possible over the Gulf Stream with strong southwesterly flow in place ahead of next cold front. Winds turn nwrly on Friday behind the cold front and may remain elevated in the 15-25 kt range before diminshing prior to the weekend.
Nc, cold weather advisory until 10 am EST this morning for ncz029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 9 am EST this morning for amz131- 230-231. Gale warning until 4 am EST early this morning for amz135. Small craft advisory until 6 am EST early this morning for amz136-137. Gale warning until 6 am EST early this morning for amz150-152- 154-156-158.
