Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1103 am EST Fri Jan 18 2019

Synopsis

High pressure will ridge into the area from the south today and tonight. A strong cold front will approach from the west Saturday and move through Sunday. Arctic high pressure will build in from the west early next week. Another cold front will impact the area mid to late next week.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 11 AM Fri, Forecast remains on track this afternoon, with primary primary adjustment with the late morning update accounting for clearing of stratus cloud cover across most of the area. High pressure building into the area under zonal flow aloft will keep a dry forecast in place, and highs in the mid 50s to near 60, which is a couple degrees above normal, are still expected in mainly light low level flow.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday As of 11 AM Fri, Relatively mild temps tonight as weak high pres remains overhead. A very weak back door cold front/wind shift will move through this evening, but this will be mainly unnoticeable as the gradient remains weak and the boundary layer will decouple quickly as solar insulation wanes. Another night of patchy fog possible as bndry layer moisture is rather high, though inc clouds from next system should prevent much in the way of dense fog. Lows tonight generally 35-40 degrees.

Long Term

Saturday through Thursday As of 320 AM Friday, Mild temperatures are expected through Sunday, with wet weather Saturday night into Sunday. Then it will turn sharply colder Sunday night and Monday as the coldest air to date of this winter barrels into the area behind a strong cold front. Another storm system will affect the region Wednesday- Thursday but timing differences continue.

Saturday through Monday, Phasing streams will lead to inland cyclogenesis over the southern plains today (Friday) with the low racing northeast into the mid Atlantic Sat night and along the New England coast Sunday. This low will push a strong cold front through our area Sunday. The models have trended a little faster with the front now pushing it off the NC coast by noon. The forecast area will get into warm sector ahead of the front on Saturday with highs upper 50s to low 60s, though the models cont to point to mainly dry conditions through Sat evening they are still indicating the threat for a few showers through the day Sat. Will remain warm early Sunday just ahead of the front with highs mainly 60 to 65 then temperatures should plummet through the 40s in the afternoon in the cold NW flow behind the front. Non diurnal temp curve expected Sat night, with temps and dewpoints increasing into Sunday morning. Mdls still showing some marginal sfc based instab ahead of the front, so added an isolated tstm mention after 09z Sunday morning mainly due to the strong forcing vicinity of the front. With guidance in pretty good agreement on this system will continue the categorical PoPs for all areas late Sat night and early Sunday with good band of shra expected along and ahead of front. Caa advection is extreme late Sunday/Sunday evening and may very briefly see a no impact snow shower or flurry with residual moisture Sunday evening.

Gusty SW winds expected ahead of the front Sat night into early Sunday, becoming NW behind the front Sunday afternoon. Wind gusts 35-45 mph expected along the Outer Banks, peaking Sun evening and Sun night. Minor water level rises will be possible for the soundside of the Outer Banks given the strong winds and high astronomical tides.

Very cold air will surge in Sunday night and cont thru Mon night. Lows Sun night will drop into the upper teens inland to the upr 20s central/srn beaches. Temps Monday will be bitterly cold with highs only be in the low/mid 30s with many areas staying below freezing. Gusty NW winds Sunday night and Mon will produce wind chill temps in the teens late Sun night into early Mon. Cool high pressure remains in control through Mon night with lows in the upper teens and 20s. Mid level heights increase behind the departing trough on Tuesday with forecast highs in the mid 40s most spots.

Wednesday through Thursday, The GFS and ECMWF are both developing another storm system with similar genesis to the previous two approaching the Carolinas mid to late week, although some model timing differences continue. Regardless, southerly low level flow combined with continued ridging aloft should help highs climb back into the upper 50s to around 60 Wed. Will continue chance pops Wed and Thu.

Aviation

16z Friday through Tuesday Through tonight As of 7 AM Fri, Some MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will persist over the next couple of hours before clouds lift to a VFR bkn/sct stratus deck. Winds will be very light through the fcst pd. By late tonight, some MVFR cigs may again build down through the lower atmosphere.

Saturday through Tuesday As of 320 AM Friday, Pred VFR conditions expected Friday night into Saturday, though some patchy fog will be possible Sat morning. High confidence in sub- VFR conditions Sat night and Sunday as a strong cold front moves through the area from the west with widespread showers. Gusty SW winds early Sunday will shift to the NW in the afternoon and remain gusty as intense cold advection develops behind cold front Sunday night into Mon. Pred VFR conditions expected to return Sunday evening and continue through Tuesday.

Marine

Through tonight As of 330 AM Fri, Light SW winds for this afternoon will veer to the N and NE tonight as weak back door cold front pushes through. Speeds will remain below 15 kt however, so fairly benign conditions on the waters with seas only 1-3 ft.

Saturday through Tuesday As of 320 AM Friday, High pres continues to slide offshore Sat with light E-NE winds early becoming S-SE 10 to 15 kt by evening. Seas mainly 2 to 3 feet Sat. Strong SCA conditions to low end Gales expected to develop Sat night into Sun night as SW winds increase to 20 to 30 kts and gusty ahead of a strong cold front with some gale force gusts. Winds will begin to shift to NW Sun afternoon as the front crosses with gale force NW winds likely most waters Sun afternoon and Sunday night as intense cold air advection moves in behind front. Seas will build 10 to 14 feet Sunday in the gusty winds. Winds and seas will gradually subside late Monday and Monday night. Waves subside late Mon to 2 to 4 feet srn waters but remain elevated AOA 6 ft for the cntrl and nrn waters through early Tue morning as winds slowly decrease to 15 to 20 kts srn waters and 20 to 25 knots cntrl and nrn waters. Northerly winds 10-15 kt early Tue becoming more E/NE 10 kt or less.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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