High pressure builds in today through Christmas Day. A warm front moves through late Friday with next chance for rain. An arctic cold front moves through late Sunday with a return to cold by early next week.
Through today As of 2 AM Wed,
Key Messages,
- Above normal temps with abundant sunshine for Christmas Eve
High pressure will continue to build in from the southwest and northwest Christmas Eve. This will keep northerly flow at the surface while low level thicknesses remain above normal. Due to the strong N winds, there will be quite a temperature gradient due to onshore flow off the cold ocean/sounds with areas along the OBX and Inner Banks remaining in the upper 50s for highs, while the coastal plain and southern NC coast see highs climb into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tonight through 6 pm Thursday As of 2 AM Wed,
Key Messages,
- Clear skies and light winds will give Santa a smooth ride across ENC tonight
- Festively cool with lows in the 30s
- Increasing chances (20-40%) for a period of light rain late Christmas Morning (best chances across northern NC)
High pressure will settle nearly overhead tonight, and with light winds and clear skies, good radiational cooling conditions will develop. This will allow for temps to drop into the mid to upper 30s inland and lower 40s along the coast by Christmas morning.
Clouds increase quickly after sunrise Christmas Day as a weak disturbance moves across the NC/VA border and offshore. Forecast trends are showing an increasing chance of a period of light rain across northern NC (20-40%), with an isolated shower possible south of US 264. Temperatures will be slow to rise in the morning due to the clouds, but will jump up into the 60s to low 70s as skies clear in the afternoon.
Thursday night through Tuesday As of 2 AM Wed,
Key Messages,
- Light rain possible Friday night as a warm front moves across northern NC
- Above normal conditions Saturday and Sunday with temps reaching the upper 60s to low 70s
- A pattern changing arctic cold front will move through the area Sunday or early Monday with well below normal conditions returning through early next week
High pressure ridge over the SE US breaks down temporarily Friday as an area of low pressure moves across the Mid-Atlantic. This will bring widespread cloudiness to ENC, and a warm front will skirt northern NC Friday night with scattered showers developing along it. Very light precip amounts expected, but areas along the Albemarle Sound and NOBX could pick up to a tenth of an inch of rain overnight. It will be cooler due to the clouds, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 50s.
High pressure ridge rebuilds over the weekend with very warm and dry conditions expected. Temps will climb to the upper 60s to low 70s, though chillier conditions are expected along the OBX.
A strong cold front is likely to move through the area Sunday or early Monday, and will bring much colder conditions to the Carolinas through early next week. Limited moisture will be available with this front, and only scattered areas of light rain expected as it moves through.
06z Wednesday through Sunday As of 12:15 AM Christmas Eve, Clear skies and light winds persist overnight. Winds are currently out of the WSW at 5-10 kt and will become light to calm near sunrise. If fog were to develop, just before sunrise would be the most likely time, but probabilistic guidance has trended back from the 10-20% chance of sub-VFR VIS that it was showing earlier. Northern zones that received rainfall today would be the most likely candidates, but confidence in impactful fog is low at this time. Winds will continue to veer through the day as a dry front passes, eventually becoming easterly by the end of the period. Skies will remain clear until the evening when SCT high clouds will move in from the NW.
Outlook: Generally quiet through the end of the week with VFR conditions expected for much of ENC.
As of 2 AM Wed,
Key Messages,
- Small Craft conditions will continue today over the coastal waters and eastern sounds after a brief lull this morning
- Another round of Small Craft conditions will develop late tomorrow over most of the coastal waters through Friday
- Small Craft Advisories extended to Friday night/Saturday morning, but winds and wind directions will be quite variable through this period
- Additional rounds of Small craft conditions likely this weekend and into early next week Behind a cold front, winds will continue to slowly subside until later this morning when a secondary surge of northerly winds moves north to south across the marine waters and winds increase to N 20-30 kts with brief gusts to 35 kts. By this evening winds will be decreasing to under 25 kts, and then by Christmas morning winds will be E/SE at 5-15 kts. Winds will quickly restrengthen through the day tomorrow, becoming SW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts over the coastal waters. Winds shift to the north tomorrow night at 15-25 kts before subsiding to NE 10-20 kts by Friday morning.
Seas will be 3-5 ft until this afternoon, when waves increase to 5-7 ft. Seas then subside to 3-5 late tonight through Christmas morning. Seas increase again to 5-7 ft late Christmas evening, and remain high through Friday night.
Outlook: Conditions temporarily improve over the weekend, but seas may exceed 6 ft occasionally. Winds increase again late Sunday in advance of a strong cold front with widespread Small Craft conditions likely developing.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm EST this evening for amz135-231. Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 2 am EST Saturday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 7 am EST Saturday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EST Friday for amz156-158.
