While the prior coastal low shifts further offshore, coastal impacts, periods of light to moderate rainfall, and hazardous marine conditions will continue today. A frontal system will push through the area on Thursday with drier high pressure building in late week into the weekend.
Through today As of 230 AM Wednesday,
Key Messages:
- NE winds continue decreasing as coastal low moves further away
- Secondary weak coastal low brings rain, a wind shift, and a threat of waterspouts near OBX
- Minor soundside flooding and minor to moderate oceanside flooding and ocean overwash expected (see Coastal Flooding section)
Low pressure which brought us our gusty winds yesterday is now well offshore, with winds having subsided quite a bit this morning. A weak low should form this morning offshore of Cape Fear, reaching our coastline by late morning into the afternoon. Impacts will be low with this weak low, just bringing some rain and shifting winds from N/NE to S/SE. Lack of a strong pressure gradient keeps winds below any impact criteria later this morning. On the rainfall side, some moderate rainfall can be expected for OBX as the weak coastal low approaches with lighter rainfall persisting for the remainder of the CWA as another dreary overcast and rainy day is in store. Something of note, we do have pretty substantial low level helicities in the upper right quadrant of the coastal low, bringing a threat of waterspouts that can reach the shore of OBX and northern Pamlico Sound communities today.
See COASTAL FLOODING section for coastal flooding threats.
Cloudy, rainy conditions today keep highs near 60 inland, near 70 for OBX where coastal low bring some southerly flow and warmer air.
Tonight As of 3 AM Wednesday.. Surface low near Tennessee tracks NE'wards into the Mid- Atlantic and eventually the Northeast tonight into tomorrow with associated warm front lifting north across ENC tonight with winds becoming southerly behind it. This will likely put us in the warm sector briefly Thursday morning. However, given the lack of residence time instability only builds to about 500 J/kg max, though with widespread deep layer shear a few stronger storms wont be out of the question late tonight with the N'ward moving warm front. For now an isolated stronger wind gust (40-60 mph) would be the main concern, though a few waterspouts pushing inland near the N'ward lifting warm front tonight certainly isn't out of the question given favorable low level shear profiles.
Yet another cloudy night with light southerly winds keeps low temps moderated, upper 50s inland and mid 60s for OBX.
Thursday through Tuesday As of 3 AM Wed,
Key Messages:
- A cold front is forecast push across ENC on Thursday bringing period of rain, a low end chance of stronger thunderstorms, and potential for minor coastal flooding impacts behind this front
-Fair but cooler weather expected this weekend
Thurs, Negatively tilted upper trough will be tracking NE'wards into the Interior Northeast on Thurs while Jet streak over the region will push offshore. Mid level shortwave will be making its way across the Mid-Atlantic as well, while at the surface, low pressure system in the Northeast will continue NE'wards while its associated cold front quickly sweeps E'wards across ENC Thurs morning, pushing offshore by Thurs afternoon with high pressure building in behind the departing front. Out ahead of the front S'rly flow will continue to advect moisture and some instability out ahead of the front with MUCAPES noted around 500 J/kg Thurs morning across portions of ENC mainly east of Hwy 17. At the same time widespread deep layer shear of 50-70 kts and 0-1 km layer shear around 20-25 kts will also be noted. Combined with the stronger forcing from the surface front and favorable upper level pattern, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be noted out ahead of the front with a few isolated storms becoming strong in nature given the somewhat favorable environment. While lower instability values will likely limit lightning threat Thurs morning, ample shear should create an opportunity for some isolated stronger wind gusts (40-60 mph) and maybe a brief waterspout within the strongest storms along and out ahead of this front Thurs morning. By mid afternoon expect any precip chances to end across ENC as aforementioned front quickly pushes offshore with skies rapidly clearing behind the front and a steady W'rly wind noted behind the front. Highs get into the mid 60s to low 70s with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
Westerly winds Thursday will be on the increase Thurs night but will be weaker compared to previous days. This will bring a lesser threat for coastal flooding across the sounds but elevated waters levels will likely remain overnight Thurs soundside across the more vulnerable locations. With elevated swell remaining in place, another limited coastal flooding threat along vulnerable OBX beaches is possible as large waves continue offshore.
Fri through Sun, A brief zonal pattern will be in place across the Eastern Seaboard over this weekend as a positively tilted trough begins to move across the Plains Fri/Sat. This trough will bring our next forecast challenge later in the long term as model guidance continues to remain spread on the eventual evolution of this trough. However, recent trends suggest this trough will cut off into a closed low in the Deep South Sat/Sun and near the Southeast early next week. This is supported by the GFS/ECWMF and AI guidance with the Canadian being the outlier and more progressive with the trough. Either way, any impacts from this trough likely wouldn't be felt until next week given latest guidance. At the surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic bringing lighter W'rly winds by Fri night as well as clear skies this weekend. During the days highs get into the 60s and with light winds and clear skies expected each night, went towards the lower end of guidance Fri/Sat night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and 40s to 50s along the OBX.
Mon through mid week next week. All eyes will be on the eventual evolution of the closed low in the Deep South, latest trends suggest this upper low gradually pushes across the Southeast Mon night through Tue, then pushing off the coast by midweek. At the surface this could promote cyclogenesis in the Southeast either in Georgia or just off the coast with this low then tracking NE'wards. This low would bring the potential for more unsettled conditions to the area Mon night into Tue. However, given uncertainty in exact evolution in the upper level pattern surface low impacts remain unknown at this time. For now, its something to keep an eye on. Temps remain about avg to slightly below avg next week.
07z Wednesday through Sunday Through tonight As of 315 AM Wednesday, Widespread light rain and IFR cigs (600-900 ft) are expected to persist through morning hours. As we get into the afternoon, brief rises to MVFR are possible, but I could also see a scenario where we remain IFR through the day. Tonight, warm front lifts through the region bringing additional moderate rainfall and continued IFR to potentially LIFR conditions. Winds start off N/NE this morning, becoming S/SE this evening and tonight behind the warm front.
Thursday through Sunday As of 315 AM Wed,
Key Messages:
- Adverse flying conditions expected Thursday morning as low pressure and its associated fronts impact the region.
Sub-VFR conditions will continue as a cold front will track across ENC Thurs morning/afternoon once again bringing another round of showers and storms and some breezy S'rly winds. Winds do shift to a W'rly direction behind the front and will be on the increase with gusts up around 15 to 25 mph Thurs night into Fri before winds ease Fri night. However, behind the front VFR conditions return to ENC after days of sub-VFR conditions. Mainly VFR conditions then forecast through this weekend.
Through tonight As of 330 AM Wednesday,
Key Messages:
- N/NE Winds lessening as pressure gradient relaxes
- High, treacherous seas linger despite the decreased winds
- Winds shift to the south this evening and tonight
Gale warnings have been dropped, replaced with Small Craft Advisories for coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound. Other sounds/rivers are seeing winds below 25 kts, so they are now headline free.
Guidance and observations continue to suggest that a secondary, weaker area of low pressure will linger south of Cape Lookout this morning before meandering northward towards the OBX later today. High- res guidance suggests that this will allow the coastal trough axis to pivot closer ashore, which may allow gusts to SCA levels to persist (or ramp back up after a brief reprieve) along coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound today. This may also lead to some variation in wind direction, with northeasterly winds west of the trough axis and east/southeasterly winds east of the trough axis.
Buoy obs currently shows waves 10-15 ft at 11-13 seconds across the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout, with waves 8-10 ft reported at the Onslow Bay buoy. Waves will be slow to subside, remaining dangerous through the short term. By tomorrow morning, they should be 6-10 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet, 4-8 ft south of Ocracoke Inlet.
Thursday through Sunday As of 315 AM Wed,
Key Messages:
- Poor boating conditions continue across our waters into this weekend as a cold front tracks across the region Thurs
-While winds ease this weekend seas along our coastal waters remain elevated into Sat promoting SCA's into this weekend.
Cold front will be nearing our coastal waters Thurs morning promoting 5-15 kt S'rly winds and 20 kt gusts as well as scattered showers and storms across our waters. Strongest storms could bring a localized threat for damaging winds and a brief water spout. With the weaker winds sub SCA conditions will be noted across the inland waters but with seas around 6-10 ft north of Cape Lookout and 3-7 ft south of Cape Lookout, coastal waters will have ongoing SCA's in place. Front will push offshore by Thurs afternoon with high pressure building in behind it. This will shift winds to a W'rly direction, but increase them Thurs night into Fri to 20-30 kts once again bringing SCA conditions to just about all our waters. Winds finally ease Fri evening to 5-15 kts as high pressure builds overhead lessening the pressure gradient. However, with seas remaining above 6 ft along our coastal waters SCA's will remain here until at least Sat morning.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for ncz080- 094-194-196. Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz196-199- 203>205. High surf advisory until 2 pm EDT this afternoon for ncz196. Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203. High surf advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for ncz203>205. Coastal flood warning until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz204- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz135. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Friday for amz150-152-154- 156-158.
