Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

917 am EDT Tue may 17 2022

Synopsis

High pressure returns for Tuesday through the end of the week. A cold front approaches late weekend.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 915 AM Tue, Quiet/dry weather today. The cold front passed south through the area late last night and now weak high pressure was building in from the west. The high will weaken late today as a lee trough/wind shift develops just east of the mountains. Skies are forecast to remain mostly clear with only patchy fair weather Cumulus expected. Light northerly flow this morning will be replaced by local sea breeze boundaries this afternoon. Temperatures will be pleasant reaching the 70s OBX to low/mid 80s inland for highs.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday As of 4 AM Tue, Lows tonight finally near climo after the very warm and humid conditions of the past several days. Clear skies and calm to light winds expected, and lows in the mid/upr 50s interior to low 60s coast.

Long Term

Wednesday through Monday As of 340 AM Tue, A ridge of high pressure pushes offshore Wednesday afternoon with a warm front lifting N'wards across NC Wednesday night into Thursday. We get a slight chance for showers and storms on Thursday before near record to record breaking heat overspreads the area late week. A cold front then impacts the area late in the weekend/early next week bringing a threat for some unsettled weather.

Wed and Wed night, Zonal flow aloft and ridging at the surface will keep ENC dry through the day Wednesday. As we get into Wed night a warm front lifts N'wards across NC. With this front bringing enough lift and moisture slowly returning to region once again, a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be accompanied by this frontal passage. Given the latest guidance the northern tier near the NC/VA border look to have the highest chances for seeing precip. For now have just kept in slight chance PoP's to the north of Hwy 264. Hi temps in the mid 80s inland with temps closer to the low 70s across OBX and lows in the 60s for Wednesday.

Thu, Upper level shortwave tracks E'wards across the Mid-Atlantic on Thu while at the surface, the warm front continues to lift N'wards making it well north of the area by late Thu night. Southerly flow at the surface will once again bring ample low level moisture N'wards across the CWA and as we get into peak daytime heating SBCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg are not out of the question especially along the Coastal Plain. Modest shear will also accompany this shortwave as well running a general risk for some thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The current fly in the ointment to this forecast is that we will be under a cap Thu afternoon and with a lack of strong forcing any thunderstorm coverage may be rather limited and activity will likely propagate from any boundaries left over from activity Wed night. Given this have kept PoP's at slight chance to chance for Thu aftn and evening. Hi's Thu get into the low to mid 90s across much of the area given the WAA regime with Lo's getting nearing 70 overnight.

Fri into early next week.. Ridging builds back into the Eastern Seaboard by Friday as the previously mentioned warm front exits the Mid-Atlantic Thu night. Onshore flow will return to the area once again with fair wx and mostly sunny skies forecast across ENC. These benign conditions will also be accompanied by a warming trend late this week into this weekend resulting in the hottest temperatures of the year with hi temps flirting with records on at least Fri. By Sun the next potential frontal boundary begins to approach from the west and tracks across the area Sun into Monday bringing our next chance for rain. Cooler temperatures are also forecast behind this frontal boundary to start out the workweek next week

Aviation

13z Tuesday through Saturday Through Tuesday night As of 7 AM Tue, Patchy br has developed in wake of earlier convection, as winds have gone calm even behind the weak fropa. Can expect TEMPO reductions in vsby to the IFR range or even LIFR through early morning, then sunshine will quickly burn off any FG/BR after sunrise. Winds light nrly will become wrly, then srly behind advancing sea breeze this afternoon. Dry air mass will preclude much in the way of cloud cover today.

Wednesday through Sunday As of 340 AM Tue, Primarily VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of this week and into this weekend with mainly fair conditions forecast across the CWA.

Marine

Through tonight As of 915 AM Tue, Light northerly winds this morning 5-15 kt behind the front as weak high pressure briefly builds over the waters. 3-4 ft seas this morning will cont to subside to 2-3 ft later today into this evening. Winds turn southerly/onshore later today as local sea breeze boundaries develop but remain light, only 5-15 kt through this evening.

Wednesday through Sunday As of 340 AM Tue, 10-15 knot N'rly winds are forecast to start out the period before onshore flow finally takes over Wed night as a warm front lifts N'wards. Onshore winds increase on Thu to 20-25kts in the wake of this N'ward lifting front as the pressure gradient tightens across the region with seas persisting at about 2-4 ft with occasional 5 ft seas across the deeper coastal waters. There is a chance for a brief period of SCA's primarily along our coastal locations on Thu given the stronger winds but confidence is low in the expected duration of stronger conditions so will keep them out for now. The gradient relaxes some across the area on Friday allowing for S'rly winds to once again lower down to 15-20 knots.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, coastal flood advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-203>205. Marine, none.

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