Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure builds overhead allowing for light N'rly winds outside of the inland moving seabreeze which has shifted winds at least briefly to a S-SE direction this afternoon behind it. Rather comfortable temps today behind yesterdays cold front as highs have gotten into the mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the OBX. As we get into tonight winds become E-SE'rly early on across the CWA eventually becoming light and variable to calm tonight across the region. Outside of some high clouds that encroach upon ENC early Thursday morning expect mo clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling. This will result in one last night of comfortable lows which get into the mid 60s inland and low 70s along the OBX tonight. Though this will also bring a threat for some patchy fog especially across areas that saw rain yesterday. Any fog is forecast to burn off a little after daybreak.
Otherwise as we get into Thurs and this weekend expect any leftover troughing across the region to lift north allowing for W-SW flow to develop aloft bringing a WAA regime back to ENC into this weekend. With low level thicknesses generally around 1420-1430m, highs this weekend get into the mid to upper 90s each day which could be near or break records (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO). Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s heat indices could be around 100-109 each day. Heat advisories may be needed Friday into the weekend if this trend holds. One caveat to all of this is the potential for convection as this could help to keep us below heat advisory thresholds. Kept SChc PoPs Friday afternoon (20%), as SW winds bring enough moisture for PWATs in excess of 1.75" and increased instability ahead of the sea breeze. Saturday moisture builds up even more, bringing higher precip chances (30-50%) with the sea breeze and a shortwave at play.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Not much change in forecast thinking as a second and slightly stronger shortwave and associated surface backdoor cold front look to track across the region on Sunday as a high builds into the Great Lakes region. On top of the increased chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sat, increased chances for precipitation are once again possible on Sun as well. There are some slight timing and strength differences between available guidance during this timeframe for the shortwave and associated front, signs currently point to a more active weekend across ENC with trends generally being diurnal in nature (highest chances for precip in the afternoon and evening). Will note given the nature of shower and thunderstorm activity it will not be a washout either day with showers and storms likely being hit or miss across the area.
18z Wednesday through Monday High pressure continues to build in from the west this afternoon with light winds noted across ENC. As a seabreeze pushes inland, expect winds to generally become SE'rly across all routes at 5 kts or less. Otherwise ongoing diurnal Cu field between 5-6 kft will dissipate near sunset tonight with just some high cirrus noted. As we get into late tonight, forecast calls for generally clear skies and higher low level RHs, resulting in a threat for patchy fog, mainly after about 08Z and have put at least a mention of 5SM BR into all TAF sites outside of PGV where a slightly lower risk is noted between 08-9Z and 12Z. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate after sunrise with VFR conditions prevailing Thursday with sct afternoon cu.
Outlook (Thurs afternoon through Mon): Primarily VFR conditions expected into Sat as we remain mostly dry though could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze each afternoon Fri/Sat bringing a brief period of sub-VFR conditions to any area impacted by this activity. A front then tracks across the area on Sun bringing a bigger threat at sub-VFR conditions. However, by Mon VFR conditions return.
Benign boating conditions are noted across all area waters this afternoon as high pressure continues to build in from the west today. Latest obs show widespread 5-15 kt E-SE'rly winds across all waters and 2-4 ft seas across the coastal waters within 20 NM and 3- 5 ft seas noted further offshore 20-60NM. With high pressure building overhead winds will continue to remain light into Thurs evening while becoming SE'rly, generally 5-10 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts at times. Seas into Thurs evening lower to 2-3 ft across the coastal waters and a foot or less across the inland waters. Will see a chance at some isolated to widely scattered showers and storms well offshore 30-60 NM out but other than that, boating conditions look to be rather pleasant heading into Thurs night.
Outlook (Thu night through Mon): Winds eventually become SW'rly Thurs night into Friday. Pinched pressure gradient Saturday brings a risk of SCA conditions to coastal waters, but at this point it is looking marginal, and the forecast calls for SW gusts 20-25 knots. Gulf stream showers and thunderstorms possible Friday morning with greater chances Sat/Sun with the shortwave and back door cold front.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
