An area of low pressure is forecast will pass offshore of the Southeast U.S. Coastline and bring snow, arctic cold, and gusty winds across the area. High pressure briefly builds over the area Wednesday with another weak low offshore potentially impacting the area Thursday. High pressure builds back into the area late week bringing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend over the weekend.
Overnight As of 955 PM Tue,
key messages:
- Cold Weather Advisory issued for "Feels Like" temperatures below 15 degrees tonight into early Wednesday
- A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for all of eastern NC for heavy snow tonight
Light to moderate snow continues this evening, likely becoming heavy at times. Many locations already reporting a dusting to 1". Winter Storm Warnings continue for all of eastern NC through early Wed morning. The developing offshore low will circulate very moist air over the top of the arctic airmass. This will result in widespread snow through most of the overnight hours.
As the right entrance region of the upper jet approaches and ascent becomes maximized tonight, banded precipitation is likely to occur which will lead to locally heavier snowfall amounts of 6+ inches. 700mb frontogenesis will continue to increase, with 0.5-1"/hr snowfall rates possibly developing, esp for areas along the coast. Right now it is very difficult to predict exactly where these bands will form but they will most likely occur along and just inland from the coast. Thermal profiles also support potential periods of sleet occurring along the coast but still expecting primarily snow to occur.
The current snowfall forecast has changed little today calling for max amounts of 6-8 inches east of Highway 17. Gusty northerly winds will cause considerable blowing and drifting of snow with blizzard conditions possible along the Outer Banks where the strongest winds and heavy snow will coincide. Cold ground temperatures will allow the snow to rapidly accumulate which will make roads snow covered and slick. No unnecessary driving is advised tonight across the area. The snow should begin tapering off around 9Z inland.
Cold temps in the teens and 20s combined with the brisk winds will result in "feels like" temps around 10 degrees which is dangerous and could lead to frostbite and hypothermia if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures.
Wednesday As of 330 PM Tuesday,
key messages:
- Snow ending through the morning but cold temps will limit melting.
Snow expected to have ended across inland areas early Wednesday morning but snow showers may linger along the coast through the morning but little additional accumulation is expected. Skies will become mostly sunny across inland area but are expected to linger along the coast through much of the day. Bitterly cold temps will persist and highs will struggle to reach the low 30s. Travel conditions will be treacherous throughout the day across the region with little snow melt expected.
Wednesday night through Tuesday As of 3:15 PM Tuesday,
key messages:
- Very cold conditions Thursday morning with wind chills in the single digits.
- 15-20% chance of freezing rain Thursday morning
- Snow melt Thursday and Friday will refreeze Thursday night and Friday night, resulting in black ice concerns.
- Relatively warmer weekend in store
Thursday: A coastal trough will develop along the NC coast on Thursday while high pressure remains farther inland. With the low tracking slightly farther to the east, the forecast has trended slightly drier and probabilities for winter precip have decreased. However, with surface temps below freezing Thursday morning, a slight chance of freezing rain still seems probable. Warming into the afternoon will transition all precipitation to rain with PoPs decreasing from west to east in the evening.
Friday-Monday: Warmer and drier weather will follow Friday through the weekend with the next round of precip on Monday as a shortwave moves across NC.
03z Wednesday through Sunday Through Wednesday As of 630 PM Tue, Mix of VFR and sub-VFR across the sites early this evening, as light snow overspreads the area. Widespread snow, occasionally heavy at times tonight will result in LIFR/IFR conditions late in the evening and continuing through much of the overnight. Precip will be ending from west to east through the morning with skies becoming mostly clear across inland rtes, but cannot rule out occasional MVFR cigs through mid day. Northerly winds will gust around 15-20 kt inland and 20-30 kt along the coast.
Wednesday night through Sunday As of 445 AM Monday, VFR briefly returns Wednesday night, but a second coastal trough may bring another round of wintry precip, primarily FZRA, before turning all liquid during the daytime hours. Details on this system still remain very murky and confidence in its evolution remains low.
Through Wednesday As of 955 PM Tuesday, Latest obs show N/NNE winds 15-25 kt gusting 25-40 kt with seas 4-8 ft. Low pressure will pass well offshore tonight which will help tighten pressure gradients once again. Winds will continue to increase through the evening with strong SCA to Gales expected this evening through Wednesday morning. Guidance came in a bit stronger with the winds and now expect a period of Gales across the Pamlico Sound and waters north of Oregon Inlet and have expected the Gale Warning to include these zones. Snow will keep visibilities low, winds will gust up to 40 kts for portions of the coastal waters, and waves will peak at 10-11 ft along the gulf stream. As we get into Wednesday afternoon, winds and seas start there downward trend. Gale Warnings end 16Z Wednesday, with Small Crafts for other waters ending by 0Z Thursday. Small Crafts will have to be issued in the wake of the Gale Warnings, and these could linger into Thursday afternoon, with seas slower to subside.
Wednesday night through Sunday As of 415 AM Tuesday, As we get into Wednesday afternoon, winds and seas start there downward trend. Gale Warnings end 16Z Wednesday, with Small Crafts for other waters ending by 0Z Thursday. Small Crafts will have to be issued in the wake of the Gale Warnings, and these could linger into Thursday afternoon, with seas slower to subside. A secondary coastal trough is forecast to develop Thursday night into Fri which may introduce a period of elevated winds and seas at the end of the period, but evolution of this system remains of low confidence. Late Friday into Saturday winds pick up again as an upper level shortwave moves through the region.
Nc, winter storm warning until 7 am EST Wednesday for ncz029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Cold weather advisory until 10 am EST Wednesday for ncz029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 1 pm EST Wednesday for amz131-136- 137-230-231. Gale warning until 9 am EST Wednesday for amz135. Gale warning until 9 am EST Wednesday for amz150. Gale warning until 11 am EST Wednesday for amz152-154-156-158.
