Key MESSAGE 1, A cold front will slide south through Virginia today and is forecast to reach NE NC by late this evening. Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible along the front tonight, generally in the Albemarle Sound/HWY 264 corridor, but the environment will become less favorable by this time, therefore minimizing the severe threat. The front will then continue to move south across ENC tomorrow, veering the winds to the NE through the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop tomorrow afternoon south of HWY 70, but modest instability and weak shear will keep the severe threat at bay.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Confidence is increasing for dangerous heat to impact the area later this week and into this weekend (Thursday - Saturday). An increase in humidity will make the feels like temperatures soar into the 100-105+ degree range, which could eventually lead to a Heat Advisory being needed for portions of the area away from the immediate coast.
00z Monday through Friday VFR flight cats expected through the TAF period. This evening, gusty SWerly winds ease to a breeze lasting through the first half of tonight becoming light and variable in the early morning hours ahead of approaching front. As the front approaches, winds veer to the north and a 15-35% chance of scattered showers and weak thunderstorms in the Albemarle Sound/HWY 264 corridor, moving SEward toward OBX through the first half of tonight. The E-W oriented front will be along a line from roughly PGV to HSE around 12Z MON, pushing Sward and off the Crystal Coast before midday. Winds become Nerly directly behind the front, but the strong 10G15kt winds out of the NE will be delayed until later in the afternoon. Expecting the bulk of the area to be dry through the morning hours with SChc of iso to sct showers and maybe some tstorms in over SWern portions of the FA ~noon to 1700EDT, only TAF site that has precip mention explicitly in the TAF is OAJ with a VCSH nod, though EWN may see something around midday. Modest instability and weak shear will keep the severe threat down, but thunder can't be ruled out. Expecting upper level clouds to stream overhead through the period with some lower clouds along and near the boundary around FL060-080, though showers and storms may bring some lower cloudbases but still remaining VFR.
Outlook: Low stratus may develop tomorrow night/early Tuesday with a more stable airmass behind the front expected to keep the area mostly dry through mid-week.
Sw winds at 10-20 kt with gusts to 15-25 kt will persist through this evening before relaxing a bit ahead of a southbound cold front that will veer the winds to the north overnight and into tomorrow. The latest guidance favors a quicker drop off of SCA winds tonight, so remaining headlines for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and Pamlico Sound have been adjusted accordingly. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will be out of the NE at 15-20 kt but gusts should remain below SCA criteria, though there is a window for 25kt gusts in the afternoon and into the evening for PamSound and SW-NE oriented portion of the Neuse River. 3-5 ft seas are expected across the 0-20 nm zones with 5-7 ft seas developing north of Cape Hatteras in the 20-60 nm zones tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook: High pressure will move in on Tuesday with good boating conditions expected for the next several days.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 1 am EDT Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 5 am EDT Monday for amz152-154-156.
