Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure will continue to slide offshore today, persisting into next week. Once the high becomes established offshore SAT morning, S'rly flow sets up and allows for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA. As a result, a warming and drying trend is forecast into mid next week. Maxts today will climb into the upper 70s for the beaches and into the low/mid 80s inland. Temps will continue to warm into mid next week, with highs in the 90s inland and 80s for the beaches. While we will likely remain below record high temps this weekend and into early next week, we will be close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The next frontal system approaches the area late next week, currently forecast to slowly cross the area later THU into FRI. This FROPA brings the next best chance of rain that may linger into the weekend with the front potentially stalling off the coast and a coastal trough setting up behind it, maybe a weak low pressure system forming along/near the boundary. Severe threat looks meager at best currently with poor support aloft and nocturnal timing. Cooler temps expected behind the front, returning to near climo with a semi cold wedge setting up to the NW.
18z Saturday through Thursday Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Mo clear skies this afternoon with just some mid and high clouds streaming in from the west. Given the lack of moisture not expecting much diurnal Cu to develop this afternoon but can't rule it out. 5-10 kt SW winds today should become more S'rly at about 10 kts with a few gusts up to 15 kts behind todays seabreeze before easing tonight.
Otherwise, our attention turns to tonight as moistening S'rly low level flow could bring some low stratus to the area near daybreak on Sun. Kept similar thinking with FEW/SCT010 across all TAF sites with this issuance, but a reasonable worst case scenario would be IFR/LIFR ceilings. Either way, even if low stratus developed it is forecast to dissipate by mid morning with VFR conditions then forecast for the rest of Sun.
Outlook (Sunday afternoon through Tuesday): Continued moisture return in persistent southerly flow may lead to TEMPO periods of low CIGs/stratus each night into midweek between the late evening hours into the early morning hours. Otherwise, a daily seabreeze is expected with occasionally gusty winds. With dry high pres in place, no convection is expected with chances below 10%. The next chance of showers or a few storms is Thursday.
Latest obs show light winds generally 10-15 with some higher gusts with seas 2-3 ft. Northern sounds showing some stronger winds where the thermal gradient is tightest and may experience some 25kt gusts for a couple more hours this afternoon, subsiding this evening. Winds begin to relax after sunset, dropping back to 10-15kt through the overnight, allowing seas to ease back to 2-3ft again.
Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): Typical summertime pattern will rinse and repeat the winds forecast with mostly dry and warming forecast into mid week. Mostly S-SW winds through the period with high pressure offshore. Light to moderate SSW winds in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes. Croatan, Roanoke, and Albemarle Sounds most likely to see 25kt gusts in the afternoon and evening, no SCA currently planned for these sounds despite criteria likely being met briefly. Seas generally remaining 2-4 ft.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
