Key MESSAGE 1, A progressive pattern will continue through the week with another low pressure system progged to push across the area late Wednesday followed by another southern stream system potentially impacting the area next weekend.
Ridging across the area early this week will breakdown Wednesday as shortwave energy rotating around an upper low north of the Great Lakes pushes across the area. The attendant low will pass north of the area Wednesday with the trailing cold front pushing across the area Wednesday night. A high shear/modest CAPE environment will be in place ahead of the front that could produce strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. 0-6km bulk shear progged to be around around 40 kt, however instability is a bit more uncertain with global models showing mainly around 500-1000 J/Kg, although some HiRes models are over 1000 J/Kg. Spc has the region in a Marginal Risk of severe storms for Wednesday (level 1 of 5). Best forcing will be north of the area and most guidance keeps precip amounts around a quarter inch, however could see higher amounts in thunderstorms.
Run to run consistency among the models continues to be poor for the system next weekend with the possibility for it to be suppressed to the south, so confidence is not that high in the forecast details but it is encouraging to see a more active pattern in the models. While rainfall amounts through the week will not have much impact with alleviating the drought, hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will help reduce the wildfire threat across the region.
07z Monday through Friday MVFR cigs are expected to last until late this morning, then rapid clearing is expected from W to E. Winds will remain out of the NE at 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt through this afternoon, becoming light 5 kt or less tonight.
Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): High pressure and generally VFR conditions are expected through early Wed. Another front and weak low may bring sub VFR with some showers and isolated storms Wed afternoon through evening, exiting later Wed night with a return to VFR through the rest of the week. Winds generally in the 5-15 kt range through the period.
N to NE winds around 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt with seas around 5-8 ft continues across the waters early this morning but conditions will gradually improve through tonight. Have cancelled the SCA for the inland rivers and expect the northern sound and Alligator River to drop below SCA early this afternoon with the Pamlico Sound this evening. Elevated seas will keep SCA conditions across the nearshore coastal waters into mid week.
Outlook: Northerly winds continue to ease on Tue becoming less than 15 kt as high pressure builds overhead. Seas will remain elevated, however, with SCA conditions persisting across portions of the nearshore coastal waters into Wednesday. Another low pressure system is progged to pass north of the area Wednesday night and could see low end SCA conditions over portions of the nearshore coastal waters redevelop Wednesday night into Thursday.
Nc, beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT this afternoon for amz131- 230-231. Small craft advisory until 10 pm EDT this evening for amz135. Small craft advisory until 10 am EDT Wednesday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Wednesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz156-158.
