Key MESSAGE 1, Fog inland has quickly given way to a more summertime like pattern of an advancing sea breeze and developing cumulus fields, although sea fog remains stubbornly persistent especially along the immediate Crystal Coast and the Outer Banks. These visibilities may occasionally bleed onto the immediate coast, but will not penetrate far enough inland to necessitate Dense Fog advisories today.
Across the north, a weak backdoor cold front is attempting to push southwards towards the Albemarle Peninsula and northern Outer Banks with a healthy bank of low stratus and fog following behind it. Guidance generally agrees on this front getting hung up just north of the Albemarle Sound, but if it does manage to migrate farther south foggy conditions could return to the northern Outer Banks later this afternoon.
A similar pattern will continue into the weekend, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. The strongest signal for widespread inland fog is for tonight with Tds at their highest and winds still expected to be light. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight, and fog could extend inland from the coast at times.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones during the afternoons, especially through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast.
A weak front will enter the Carolinas Sunday and hang around through Monday, leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will keep temps a couple of degrees cooler, but still well above normal. Confidence in rainfall has increased with PoPs now categorical, although rainfall amounts do not look to exceed half an inch. After this front lifts back to the north, potentially even warmer conditions are likely to develop by mid next week ahead of a large frontal system.
00z Saturday through Wednesday IFR/LIFR flight cats are expected tonight through tomorrow morning due to dense fog and low stratus. All TAF sites should remain VFR until ~08/09Z when both VIS and CIGs will tank quickly. There is a better signal for LIFR conditions tonight compared to last night, and the best chance for this will be between 09 and 13Z. Cigs and VIS will improve through the morning and should return to VFR by ~17Z. Terminals will remain VFR through the rest of the period with a few clouds around 4 kft and 5-15 kt SW winds. Along the immediate coast, sea fog may linger well into tomorrow, and if it does eventually mix out, it could be very brief before it redevelops tomorrow night.
Outlook: A cold front will move into the area on Sunday, leading to a change in the weather pattern, but also bringing with it an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. This risk may linger into early next week.
Sea FOG: Sea fog has been slow to erode across the coastal waters from Cape Hatteras south through Surf City. Because of this, the Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been extended out through 3pm. We'll continue to re-evaluate this potential through the afternoon. Sea fog may also redevelop across the northern waters as a backdoor cold front struggles to push southward towards the Albemarle Peninsula.
A similar pattern will continue tonight, and sea fog will likely persist, or redevelop, in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight.
WINDS/SEAS: Pleasant boating conditions are expected (outside of fog) for the next couple of days with high pressure offshore. Winds will be SSW/SW at 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft.
Outlook: The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine area. A stronger front may cross the region in the middle of next week, although significant timing and intensity differences remain.
Nc, none. Marine, dense fog advisory until 10 am EST Saturday for amz131-150-152- 154-156-158-230-231.
