A strong cold front will race through ENC today, with arctic high in place through early this week. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another strong cold front moves through Thursday night.
Through today As of 3 AM Sun, Very warm conditions early this AM as ENC is in pre-frontal warm sector. Arctic cold front analyzed racing sewrd through the TN Valley, and is progged to move through ENC mid/late morning. Rain develops in this strongly forced system, despite meager moisture return. Short duration likely/categorical pops remain in place mainly through the morning hours. Front blasts through with gusty nwrly winds and it will be very apparent, as rapid drying albeit rapidly falling temps expected this afternoon. Temps start in the 50-55 range early, dropping through the 30s this afternoon.
Tonight As of 3 AM Sun,
Key Messages:
- Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory in place for all OBX zones this afternoon through late tonight.
- Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range tonight - Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is remains in effect.
ECS/MET/MAV MOS and NBM blend for forecast lows tonight as strong mixing in place all night and thus pure NBM running too cold esp eastern half. Nevertheless, still forecasting lows in the 20s on the coast to the upper teens to near 20 interior zones. This combined with winds of 10+ mph overnight lead to wind chills 5-15 degrees and cold wx adv remains. Strong winds accompany the arctic blast, and windy conditions esp OBX where sustained up to 30 mph gusting 40-45 mph expected.
Monday through Saturday As of 3 AM Sun
Monday, Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day. Monday night may be the colder of the two esp for coastal mainland areas due to clr skies and this time atms will be decoupled. Lows will be in the teens to near 20, with 25-30 OBX. Unlike Sunday night, however, winds will be light to calm so no need for an extension of the cold wx adv.
Tuesday through Thursday, High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-20%) and Thursday night (50-60%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region.
Friday through Saturday, Cold front pushes east by week's end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system are forecast to be weaker than tomorrow's system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front.
08z Sunday through Thursday As of 1 AM Sun,
Key Messages
- MVFR ceilings develop early Sunday morning and linger into Sunday afternoon
- VFR conditions return Sun evening though breezy winds persist into Mon morning
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure offshore with a cold front currently noted along the Appalachians. This front will continue to move east as the evening progresses and move into ENC this morning. Out ahead of this front clear skies and light SW'rly winds are noted across the region, though some mid and high clouds have begun to stream into the far western Coastal Plain as of this update. Clouds will continue to increase from west to east, with ceilings lowering to MVFR levels (sub 3000 ft) by 6-8 am. At this time, scattered light rain will move into the area, leading to further lowering of ceilings to 1000-2000 ft through the rest of the morning hours. Most guidance has only low probabilities of IFR conditions developing (odds of 10-20% or less), but some brief periods are possible especially where rain is the steadiest, between 13-18z. To account for this chance do have a SCT deck at 800 ft between this time. Improving conditions expected tomorrow afternoon primarily after about 18Z to 22Z , however strong NW winds will develop with wind gusts 20-30 mph possible inland with 35-45 mph wind gusts possible along the OBX. Finally, increasing LLWS may bring issues to terminals overnight, mostly from 1-6 am.
Outlook: Gusty NW winds will gradually ease Sun night into Mon with gusts falling below 20 mph across the inland areas by daybreak Mon and falling below 30 mph along the OBX at the same time. Winds continue to decrease throughout the day Mon becoming light and variable by Mon evening. Vfr conditions persist through midweek before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system.
As of 3 AM Sun,
Key Messages
- Gale conditions Sunday afternoon through Sunday night for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 35-40 kt expected.
Today/Tonight, Strong CAA begins Sunday morning with passage of arctic front. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly with the frontal passage and quickly build to Gales across most of the area waters. Sounds and Alligator reach gales this evening with secondary main arctic air CAA surge. Seas peak in the 7-11 ft range by tonight.
Monday, Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions late morning/early afternoon. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night, and gusts may flirt with SCA again across the Gulf Stream waters, especially south and east of Cape Hatteras.
Tuesday through Thursday, Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft.
Thursday night into Friday, Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. With warm offshore waters, gale conditions possible over the Gulf with strong swrly flow in place ahead of next cold fropa.
Nc, cold weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am EST Monday for ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198- 199-203>205. Wind advisory from noon today to 6 am EST Monday for ncz203>205. Marine, gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 2 am EST Monday for amz131-230-231. Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 4 am EST Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 am EST Monday for amz136-137. Gale warning from noon today to 6 am EST Monday for amz150-152- 154-156-158.
