Key MESSAGE 1, Multiple rounds of messy showers and thunderstorms are expected today, which will bring much needed rain to the area. A pre-frontal trough (and potentially an outflow boundary from an upstream QLCS) will serve as the forcing mechanisms for initial convection across the coastal plain late this afternoon/early this evening (~3-5 PM). The environment does not look overly impressive during this period as the best shear and instability will be with the front a few hours later. However, with model soundings showing an inverted-V signature, there's concern for damaging downburst winds. The synoptic cold front is not forecast to enter the CWA until ~8/9 PM. Cams are showing the best environment of the day to be along the front with MUCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg and 50+ kt of 0-6 km shear. Lapse rates appear to be too low to support a risk for severe hail and modeled hodographs do not favor tornado potential. Therefore, the main hazard of concern with any storm today will be damaging wind gusts.
There's potential for earlier convection to work over the environment before the front arrives, which would dampen further destabilization and lower the severe risk in the evening. Regardless, areas west of Highway 17 will be the best candidates to see stronger storms given the overlap of severe ingredients. Spc has our entire CWA under a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather.
All of ENC is experiencing severe drought conditions, so thankfully QPF has continued to trend up. The NWS PPP shows expected rainfall amounts ranging from 1-1.5" across the CWA (high end amounts nearing 2" across the coastal plain). Nbm precipitation probabilities have trended up as well:
> 0.5": 75-85% > 1.0": 25-55%
Higher amounts are likely in thunderstorms, potentially in excess of 2". Forecast rainfall amounts tend to be overstated in long-term drought conditions like ours, but the forcing and deeper moisture with this system appears strong enough to overcome the antecedent dry conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The front will move offshore early tomorrow morning and cooler high pressure will build in behind it, resulting in much cooler highs to kick off the new week (mid to upper 60s inland/low 60s beaches). A quick, moisture-starved reinforcing cold front will then move across the area on Tuesday. Although no rain is expected with this FROPA, the post- frontal air mass will bring the coldest high temps of the week on Wednesday (low to mid 60s inland/low 60s beaches). We'll moderate thereafter and be back to low 80s inland/low 70s beaches by next weekend.
06z Sunday through Thursday Main aviation concern through mid morning is the possibility for stratus to bring MVFR cigs across rtes. Guidance brings highest probs around 30-50% across western rtes between 08-13z while less than 20% along east of highway 17. However, latest satellite imagery showing sct to occasionally bkn MVFR stratus east of highway 17, so coverage possible across all rtes.
SW winds will gust to around 25-30 kt today as gradients tighten ahead of a cold front approaching the region. This could produce cross wind concerns at EWN runway 14R/32L this afternoon. Prefrontal showers and thunderstorms will move into the area this afternoon bringing the chance for sub-VFR conditions. There remains some slight timing differences in the models but generally show precip moving into western terminals around 18z give or take an hour and into eastern terminals around 20z. Sufficient instability and shear present for thunderstorms to bring the threat of strong wind gusts with an isolated severe storm possible and SPC has the region in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms. The cold front is progged to push across the region around 00-06z Sunday with the threat if thunderstorms diminishing quickly behind the front, but shower may linger into the early morning hours. Pred VFR conditions expected to return by late tonight.
Outlook: Pred VFR expected Monday through Thursday with high pressure over the area, through a dry reinforcing cold front will push through the area Tuesday.
Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate through the day ahead of an approaching cold front. By this afternoon, SW winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt and seas will build to 5-6 ft. Winds will begin to veer to the NW late tonight and will be out of the N by early tomorrow morning. A slight reprieve in winds is possible as they veer, but a northerly post-frontal surge will ramp winds back up to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30+ kt. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft tonight.
It should be noted that there's a fairly large spread in guidance in terms of how strong the non-convective gusts will be today, both pre- and post-frontal. The wind forecast has been trended up to honor the higher-end of guidance that shows a larger footprint of Gale force gusts across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters generally north of Cape Lookout, but all headlines have been kept as SCAs at this time.
Showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of and with the front, leaving the door open for convection between early evening and approximately midnight. Within thunderstorms, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts in excess of 40-50 kt will be possible.
Gusts should drop below 25 kt by early tomorrow afternoon but elevated seas may linger across the outer central waters into tomorrow evening.
Outlook: Once SCAs drop tomorrow, we should remain headline free until Tuesday evening when the next front is expected to pass. The latest forecast has NE winds at 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30+ kt and 6-9 ft seas Tuesday night through Wednesday. Behind this front, seas will likely remain elevated through the rest of the week.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 pm EDT this evening for amz131-136-137-230-231. Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 11 am EDT Monday for amz135-150. Small craft advisory until 5 pm EDT Monday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Monday for amz156. Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 2 pm EDT Monday for amz158.
