A warm front lifts northward through the Carolinas tonight. Warm with brief showers ahead of a stout arctic cold front that will push through the area late Monday. A return to seasonably cool conditions through mid week before a dry cold front moves through. A low pressure area may bring the next appreciable rain to the region this weekend.
Until 6 am Monday morning As of 3 PM Sun, Partly to mostly cloudy skies expected tonight as southerly flow bring increasing WAA ahead of an Arctic front approaching from the west. Low temps in the low to mid 50s will be reached during the evening then will see temps slowly increase overnight with WAA bringing temps around 60 for most areas by sunrise.
6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday As of 3 PM Sun, Warm and breezy day in store with fropa late in the day. Ahead of it brief showers still expected, with highest concentration for the northern zones where 40-60% pops reside. Further south, forcing and moisture is less so pops remain 30-50%. Highs expected in the low 70s interior zones, but decent onshore flow over cold shelf/sound waters will keep the beaches cool in the low 60s for a better part of the day. A weak signal for sea fog due to the stable flow near the Crystal Coast and also OBX zones, though enough wind should prevent dense fog from developing.
Monday night through Sunday As of 1 AM Sunday,
Key Messages,
- A strong Arctic front passes through by Mon night with below normal temps into mid week.
- Dry with moderating temps for the latter half of the work week.
- Next appreciable chance for rain by the weekend with a low pressure system traversing the region. Monday night, Clearing skies and strong CAA develops behind the front with gusty NW winds. Temps will fall steadily overnight with low reaching the upper 20s inland to 30s coastal sections with wind chill temps in the low/mid 20s all areas by daybreak Tue.
Tuesday and Wednesday, Arctic high pressure ridges into the area mid week with cyclonic flow persisting across the eastern CONUS bringing mainly clear skies and cold temps. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the coldest period of the week with highs in the mid 40s and lows 20-25, even close to the coast as winds will be light to calm. The airmass begins to moderate Wednesday with highs low 50s.
Thursday through Friday, A series of weak shortwave will push through the area for the latter half of the work week bringing periods of mid and high clouds but deeper moisture will be lacking and expect dry condition to prevail with zonal flow. A dry front will push through the area Thursday night and stall south of the area Friday with brief high pressure building in.
Saturday through Sunday, The upper trough begins to lift out late in the week with a southern stream shortwave approaching the area over the weekend. Guidance indicating low pressure developing along the stalled front off or over the Southeast coast over the weekend and could bring accumulating rain to the region. For now timing and synoptic details yet to be determined so held pops in the 40-50% range. Temps near avg for early Jan with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the 30s.
00z Monday through Friday As of 730 PM Sun,
Key Messages
- Periods of sub-VFR conditions and LLWS expected overnight ahead of approaching front
- SW wind gusts to around 25-30 kt expected Monday
- Scattered showers Monday afternoon bring chances of sub-VFR conditions.
Moist S to SWly flow will continue into Monday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front bringing a mix of cigs across rtes. Currently seeing patchy MVFR across the coastal plain, with IFR in Duplin Co, and VFR along the coast this evening. Guidance is mixed with probs for sub-VFR cigs persisting overnight leading to a low confidence forecast. Href is most pessimistic with greater than 70% prob of sub-VFR spreading across most rtes late tonight and persisting through FROPA Monday afternoon, while the REFS keeps probs less than 20% through most of the period except briefly to around 60-80% Monday afternoon as the front pushes through.
A strengthening LLJ to around 40 kt will bring LLWS concerns through much of the overnight. A tightening pressure gradient will bring better mixing late tonight, after around 10z, easing LLWS concerns. Monday will see SW winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 25-30 kt ahead of the front, which will become NW after FROPA Monday afternoon and remain gusty.
Outlook: VFR conditions will return by Monday evening as the front pushes well offshore. Gusty NW winds up to 25-30 kt expected for several hours behind the front as CAA ramps up. Breezy W-NW winds with gusts to around 20 kt expected Tuesday. Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the rest of the week.
As of 3 PM Sun,
Key Messages,
- SCA continues through early Mon with elevated seas cont.
- A strong Arctic front will push through the waters Mon with gales over the Gulf Stream and SCA for the rest of the waters/sounds/rivers.
Through Monday, Lingering highs seas in long period swell continues off the coast north of Ocracoke. High pres slides offshore tonight into Monday with south to southwesterly winds increasing ahead of an Arctic Front. Strong marine inversion present tomorrow with warm airmass atop cold waters in the 50s creating stable flow and lighter winds, but should see winds reach 25 kt at times. Much stronger winds just offshore over the Gulf Stream south of Oregon Inlet where sst's in the 60s to 70s, and 35-40kt wind gusts should be no problem at being attained. Have upgraded to gale warnings for these zones from 9a to 6p.
Monday Night through Tuesday, Strong arctic front moves through Mon evening with CAA ensuing and keeping winds high due to good mixing. Gales will be more marginal as 925mb winds are lower behind the front, but some brief gales are possible on the coastal waters in the evening. Nbm/refs probs are not terribly high and thus will end gales at 6pm and will have strong SCA conditions with wnw winds to 30 kt expected.
Tuesday night through Thursday, Conditions expected to drop below SCA criteria by late Tuesday with W-NW flow around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4 ft. Winds become swrly mid week but remain below SCA for most. Could see marginal SCA winds for the Gulf waters with swrly winds inc a bit late Wed/Wed night ahead of dry cold front set to move through Thu.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 9 am Monday to noon EST Tuesday for amz131-135-230-231. Small craft advisory from 9 am Monday to 6 am EST Tuesday for amz136-137. Small craft advisory until 9 pm EST Tuesday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 9 am EST Monday for amz152-154. Gale warning from 9 am to 6 pm EST Monday for amz152-154-156- 158.
