Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

231 pm EST Fri Dec 1 2023


A warm front near the coast this afternoon will lift through the area tonight. Unsettled pattern then continues through much of the weekend and into early next week as a series of low pressure systems impact the area. High pressure will build in mid to late next week.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 2 PM Fri, Isolated showers will continue through sunset as the 850 mb warm front crosses the area, initiating modest low level moisture convergence.

Tonight, the approaching southerly LLJ will aid in lifting the coastal trough axis to the coast as a warm front by sunset, then across the area quickly through the early afternoon. Strong low level theta-e advection will prompt the development of increased shower activity through the evening, with greatest coverage and intensity near the coast overnight where some instability could being some locally heavy rainfall and a few rumbles of thunder. Further inland, lack of forcing will limit precip coverage through the early morning hours, but saturated boundary layer and modest diurnal cooling will result in lowering stratus, potentially building to the surface at times as fog, which could be locally dense. Conditions will be monitored for potential dense fog products.

Short Term

Saturday As of 2 PM Fri, LLJ will shift over the OBX in the morning, then offshore by midday as we become firmly entrenched within the warm sector of complex low pressure developing across the Southeast. While ample deep moisture will remain in place (PWATs near 1.5 in), a lack of dominate forcing mechanism will likely limit the precip coverage, and little more than low end chance POPs are justified through the day with only modest instability in place. Overcast skies continue with temps climbing near 10 deg above normal given the strong low level WAA.

Long Term

Saturday night through Thursday As of 2 PM Friday, Several lows will move across NC during the long term and bring multiple chances for showers and some thunder.

Sunday, Heights fall on Sunday as the trough over the Plains draws closer and develops a double barrel low. Several surface lows will move across North Carolina and sustain Chance to Likely PoPs across the FA with a continued chance for thunder mainly east of HWY 17. Highs once again near 70.

Monday - Thursday, Two more mid-level troughs and surface cold fronts will traverse the area late Monday and Wednesday afternoon. The highest PoPs associated with these FROPAs will be along the immediate coast with the majority of the coastal plain remaining dry. Winds will be gustier Wednesday (10-15 mph, gusts 20 mph) as the strongest front of the period crosses ENC. High temps will progressively drop through the week (60s on Monday and low 50s by Thursday). The next chance for near or below freezing lows will be Wednesday and Thursday night.


19z Friday through Wednesday Through Saturday As of 1 PM Fri, VFR conditions continue this afternoon with only isolated light showers through sunset. A surface warm front will lift across the area quickly this evening, with increasing shower activity mainly near the coast, but lowering ceilings and increasing fog coverage. Ifr conditions expected to develop through the early morning hours further west (PGV and ISO, a likely OAJ), with more uncertainty further east (EWN). Additionally, fog could develop given the saturated BL, with stratus building to the surface at least in some locations, and fog continues in the TAFs into mid morning given the expected slow onset of warming Sat AM. Sub-VFR ceilings scatter through the morning with mainly VFR stratus then prevailing in persistent WAA through the day Sat.

Saturday night through Wednesday As of 1 PM Fri, Sub-VFR conditions are possible at several times during the long term due to continuous low pressure systems moving through the area. Chance to Likely rainfall will bring additional impacts Saturday night. After the ground becomes saturated, early morning fog will be more likely.


Through Friday As of 2 PM Fri, Moderate SE flow continues this afternoon north of a warm front that is slowly approaching the beaches south of Cape Hatteras. Then, this evening, an approaching southerly LLJ will accelerate the warm front onshore, and breezy southerly winds will ensue. Winds will mainly be 15 to 20 kt through much of the night, with gusts to 25 kt mainly focused near the western wall of the Gulf Stream beyond 10-15 nm offshore near and south of Cape Hatteras. Llj pushes further offshore Saturday with SW winds trending more moderate in the morning through afternoon.

Southerly wind swell raises seas rapidly this evening, to 4 to 6 ft through the early morning hours. Then, conversely, seas fall quickly through the day Saturday as southerly windswell fades, back to 2-4 ft by late afternoon.

Saturday through Tuesday As of 2 PM Friday, Generally 10-20 kt winds out of the SSW with gusts nearing SCA by early Sunday morning. Sca conditions seem more likely later Monday and into Tuesday with NW winds 10-20 kt and 25+ kt gusts across zones south of Cape Hatteras. Conditions improve Tuesday as winds back to the southwest (10-15 kt) and seas drop to 2-3 ft.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 7 am EST Saturday for amz152-154-156-158.

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