Key MESSAGE 1, Little change in the overall pattern this afternoon with the Carolinas remaining under zonal flow and high pressure, centered over the western Atlantic, expanding over much of the southeastern CONUS. Dense fog earlier this morning has since completely burned off over land with very little evidence of it over area waters on satellite.
Tonight, light to calm winds and low dewpoint depressions will bring another round of fog. Forecast trends this afternoon have now favored clearer skies, and thus likelihood of fog formation has increased slightly from the previous forecast. There is a stronger signal for dense fog mainly along the Crystal Coast, perhaps sea fog bleeding onshore, and explicitly show visibilities down to 1/2 mile here Thurs AM. Fog headlines may be needed here during the overnight shift.
For planning purposes, sea fog could continue to plague the coast the next few mornings through this weekend, but the exact location and intensity is hard to predict this far out.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some afternoons, especially tomorrow through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures.
Latest forecast trends show a weak front moving into the Carolinas late this weekend and into early next week, with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms as the well above normal conditions hold on.
00z Thursday through Monday Another round of fog is likely for terminals east of Highway 17 tonight. For EWN and OAJ, LIFR to VLIFR VIS and CIGs are expected to develop by ~09/10Z as the winds go calm. Dense fog should gradually dissipate through mid-morning, but CIGs may not return to VFR until early afternoon. For PGV and ISO, the chances for fog have decreased. Glamp MVFR VIS probs are ~20% around sunrise, so while brief drops are possible, multiple hours of dense fog is unlikely. Impacts from LIFR to VLIFR CIGs are more likely for PGV and ISO, but this is not expected to develop until ~12Z and should return to VFR by early afternoon. Once conditions return to VFR, scattered low and high clouds with SW winds at 5-15 kt will finish out the period.
Sea FOG: A rinse and repeat for sea fog expected tonight with visibilities dropping over the nearshore waters of Onslow Bay and the waters adjacent the northern Outer Banks later tonight, then bleeding into the sounds pre-dawn Thursday. With a stagnant airmass and little change in the pattern through the rest of the week, fog formation will likely continue to plague area waters for the next few mornings. Exact location and intensity will be hard to predict this far out.
WINDS/SEAS: Only zone with SCA level seas are the central waters off of Cape Hatteras where seas at Diamond Shoals continue to hover near 6 feet. This is expected to drop off by dusk, giving way to good boating conditions tonight with S/SW winds at 5-15 kts through tomorrow. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft.
Outlook: Pleasant boating conditions continue into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine area.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
