Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

330 am EDT Tue may 26 2020

Synopsis

High pressure will continue to build in from the north while sliding offshore today. A trough of low pressure will move inland from the coast mid to late week and bring unsettled conditions to Eastern North Carolina. A cold front will cross this weekend followed by high pressure early next week.

Near Term

Through today As of 300 AM Tuesday, Continued mainly dry today as high pressure continues to ridge south into NC while moving offshore. A trough of low pressure will take shape late today offshore and link up with low pressure developing along or just east of the Florida coast. Similar to yesterday, widespread low clouds blanketing the region early this morning will lift and mix out this afternoon. The coastal trough will begin to advance toward the coast late today with a few coastal showers possible in the low level easterly flow. Highs similar to Monday with 75 to 80 inland, and cooler nrn cst with highs in the upper 60s.

Short Term

Tonight As of 300 AM Monday, The coastal trough of low pressure is forecast to be located along the immediate coast south of Cape Hatteras by 12Z Wed as the associated surface low moves into South Carolina. The best chance of rain with this system will occur south of Highway 70 late tonight. Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy and mild with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Long Term

Wednesday through Monday As of 315 AM Tuesday, A deep SW flow bringing abundance amount of moisture will leading to a wet pattern through the end of the week. Then a cold front will approach the area and push through late Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in and providing drier and cooler weather for early next weather.

Wednesday through Thursday, The mid to upper level ridge will continue to dominate across the Eastern CONUS as a broad trough settles over the Southern Plains with a mid to upper low cutoff from the flow and gradually wobbling eastward. This will lead to a deep SW flow bringing an abundance amount of moisture into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, at the sfc, a coastal trough becomes more define along the Southeast coast with a weak low developing around GA/SC and moving northward along the sfc trough axis. The synoptic setup will lead to widespread rain with heavy downpours at times as ENC will be in the region with good upper-level divergence, 850 mb moisture transport, and PWAT values above 2.00". Models are suggesting some instability to current, so we cannot rule out embedded thunderstorms. By Thursday, the sfc low will becoming an open wave, but the moisture fetch continues, but an increase of instability occurs, leading to more thunderstorms in the Thursday afternoon. Wpc has the most of the area in a marginal risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) with a slight risk across our southern zone. In general, if rainfall amounts increases, there can be a concern for flooding across our southern zones where soils are saturated.

Friday through Saturday, While the highest PWAT values lifts northward, PWATs will still remain btw 1.75 and 2.00". The deep SW flow will continue on Friday, though it starts to break down due to a northern stream shortwave diving down into the Northeast states, while a cold front is approaching the region from the NW. Scattered to widespread showers and afternoon thunderstorm will be possible as instability will be the greatest on both day, while on Saturday, shear increases in to around 30 kt.

Sunday through Tuesday, The cold front is forecasted to be offshore by Sunday morning, leading to high pressure building in and clouds clearing out late in the day. The high pressure will bring cooler and drier weather for the beginning of next week.

Aviation

07z Tuesday through Saturday Through tonight As of 300 AM Tuesday, Next 24 hrs looks to be similar to past 24 hrs. Widespread low clouds with IFR ceilings early this morning will improve to VFR in the aftn. More sub-VFR ceilings will will be possible tonight with MVFR ceilings developing after midnight and IFR ceilings possible by 9Z Wed. A few showers will also be possible overnight as trough of low pressure approaches the coast.

Wednesday through Saturday As of 315 AM Tuesday, A wet-pattern starts Wednesday leading to mostly MVFR conditions through the period. Scattered to widespread rain will occur Wednesday and Thursday as tropical moistures lifts into the area which will lead to MVFR conditions with brief IFR. Additional scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms continues Friday and Saturday.

Marine

Through tonight As of 300 AM Tuesday, High pressure will continue to ridge south into the NC waters while moving offshore today. A trough of low pressure will take shape late today offshore and link up with low pressure developing along or just east of the Florida coast. The trough will then move toward the coast late tonight. Current NE winds 10-15 kt will veer to E this afternoon then SE 10-15 kt late tonight. Seas will be 2-4 ft all waters through the period.

Wednesday through Saturday As of 315 AM Tuesday, SE winds 10-20 kt Wednesday, then veering to the south on Thursday and finally becoming SW Friday night ahead of the approaching cold front. Seas will build quickly to 4-6 ft Wednesday and peak to 5-7 ft south of Oregon Inlet Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas will slowly subside Friday, but the central water is expected to remain at 6 ft through Saturday. Small Craft Advisory will be in effect starting Wednesday afternoon--south of Oregon Inlet.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from noon Wednesday to 2 am EDT Saturday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 2 pm Wednesday to 8 am EDT Friday for amz156-158.

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