Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1018 pm EDT Wed aug 12 2020

Synopsis

High pressure will ridge in from the Atlantic through the rest of the week, while a trough of low pressure remains across the Southeastern U.S. A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area over the weekend and stall. A series of lows will move along the front Sunday into early next week.

Near Term

Until 6 am Thursday morning As of 1015 PM Wed, The latest radar returns are showing isolated to scattered showers moving onshore from Onslow Bay, therefore slightly increased PoPs along the coastal counties, while most of the inland counties should remain dry slightly after midnight. A weak low/inverted trough off the Carolina Coast will creep northward after midnight with showers to spread northward towards the coastal counties prior to sunrise, with fairly decent covg of showers expected along the coast in the early morning. Pw's will be quite high generally 2-2.25" late, supporting the threat for some heavier rain rates developing.

Short Term

6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday As of 3 PM Wed, Aforementioned coastal trough/weak low will overspread E NC through the day, with sct to numerous showers and embedded thunder expected. While the threat for some gusty winds will exist with convection, the main threat is going to be heavy rain and minor flooding, as PW's aoa 2.25" will envelope the region. High temps will struggle into the mid/upr 80s due to the widespread clouds and showers.

Long Term

Thursday night through Wednesday As of 330 AM Wednesday, Wet weather along with seasonable temperatures are expected through the long term period, as a closed low currently over MO moves east and evolves into an open wave over the southeast this weekend. Ample mid level troughing is then expected to develop over the Eastern US for much of next week as a strong northern stream upper trough moves across southern Canada and the US northern tier. At the surface, the typical Atlantic high/inland lee trough pattern will persist through late week, then a wavy cold front will move into NC and stall while a series of weak lows move along it and enhance rainfall across the region. Several inches of rain will possible over this period with the potential for local flooding.

The air mass across Eastern NC will be supportive of locally heavy rains with cyclonic flow, dewpoints in the 70s, PW values AOA 2" and sufficient instability through the long term period. While timing individual rainfall events are still uncertain, there is enough confidence to forecast likely PoPs through the weekend with best chances during peak heating inland, then along the immediate coast overnights. Will cap PoPs at chance for early next week, but these may need to be raised with subsequent forecasts if current model trends continue.

Aviation

02z Thursday through Monday Through 18z Thursday As of 715 PM Wed, High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 6 hours. The daytime showers and thunderstorms are diminishing leading to a mostly clear start, then onshore clouds will start to move in after midnight. Taf sites at KPGV and KISO received rain this afternoon and will most likely see patchy fog and low stratus to develop after midnight, while the coastal sites (KEWN & KOAJ) will likely see low stratus. Scattered showers will start to increase from south to north after midnight, impacting the coastal TAF sites, first, then the inland sites late morning. Most TAF sites will start out around MVFR conditions around 12z, and will gradually increase to VFR conditions by early afternoon. Some showers can be heavy at times leading to brief MVFR or IFR.

Thursday night through Mon As of 145 PM Wednesday, As we enter a wetter pattern, sub VFR conditions are more frequent in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms which are forecast through the period, especially during peak heating. The greater rainfall chances increases the likelihood of patchy early morning fog and/or stratus.

Marine

Through Thursday As of 1015 PM Wed, The latest buoy obs are showing S/SSE winds 10-15 knots and seas 1-3 ft. Winds veer more to the S later Thu afternoon, and some inc in speeds possible esp for the ctrl/srn waters, though conditions remain below SCA levels. Some 4 ft sets develop by afternoon across the outer waters.

Thursday through Sunday As of 330 AM Wednesday, Good boating conditions will continue through most of the long term. Expect S to SW winds 10-15 kt, with occasional gusts to around 20 kt each afternoon/evening through Fri evening as the sea breeze develops and differential heating tightens the gradient a bit locally. A wavy cold front will move into the waters and stall over the weekend. Winds will become W around 10 kt Fri night, then N/NE 10-15 kt Sat and E 10-15 kt Sunday. Seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft through SAt then building to 3-5 ft Sunday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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