High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front may then impact the area late in the week.
Until 6 am Monday morning As of 1900 Sunday, No changes required to the near term.
Previous disco as of 400 PM Sun, Very quiet weather persists across eastern NC, which remains centered underneath a broad upper level ridge and Atlantic high pressure anchored to the east. Thick deck of strato-cu to our west is beginning to break up as drier air works its way into the picture, but it has been enough to keep temperatures suppressed in the mid 70s while north of Highway 64 upper 70s to low 80s prevail.
Little change in this pattern is expected through the short term. Southwesterly winds will diminish but not quite decouple tonight as weak front to our north keeps the gradient pinched. Combined with ever-increasing low-level thicknesses, lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last - mid to upper 50s inland, around 60 along the coast. If any areas do decouple, it will be likely along the coast south of Highway 70. Combined with clear skies, some low (10% chance) potential exists for patchy fog to develop early Monday morning.
6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday As of 400 PM Sun, Ridge and surface high will move little tomorrow, remaining the dominant weather features. Column will be noticeably drier than yesterday as PWATs hit a minimum of under an inch, and expect little if any cloud cover through the day apart from some thin cirri. With full insolation and higher low-level thicknesses, temperatures will rise around another 5 degrees. Widespread low to mid-80s expected inland, except 70s along the coast.
Monday night through Sunday As of 330 PM Sunday,
key messages
- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week
- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend
forecast details
Above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday with highs reaching the low to mid 80s inland with mid to upper 70s along the coast. Dry weather will prevail through much of the day on Tuesday with a fairly unorganized disturbance beginning to approach from the west.
The aforementioned weak disturbance will move across the area on Wednesday, and now looks to cross the area around peak heating. Higher confidence of shower and thunderstorm development is beginning to take shape and have increased PoPs during the afternoon to around 50%. Still, any severe threat looks to be minimal with little to no shear present. Thursday looks drier relative to Wednesday but another slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the western counties. Despite this moving through the area, temperatures will remain high during this time topping out in the upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.
A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms (25-40%) by Saturday afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still well above normal for this time of year.
23z Sunday through Friday Through 18z Monday As of 1900 Sunday, The probability of sub-VFR flight cats over the next 24 hours is low, but none zero.
High pressure sitting off the southeast coast continues to ridge into the southeastern CONUS this afternoon while broad mid-level ridge sits overhead. Skies clear after sunset tonight and remain so through tomorrow as column continues to dry.
Steady southwesterly winds this afternoon (with a few isolated gusts to 15 kt) will subside overnight but still hover around 4-5 kt as weak front approaches from the north. This should inhibit any fog formation, but if decoupling occurs would not be surprised to see some reports of MIFG - most likely south of a line from EWN to DPL. Have included a tempo MVFR VIS group for OAJ, where RH is forecast to be the highest, in the early morning hours.
Monday night through Thursday As of 330 PM Sunday, The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of VFR conditions through next week, with little to no aviation impacts. An approaching disturbance will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Through Monday As of 400 PM Sun, Benign marine conditions in place for area waters this afternoon as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Regional observations show broad southwesterly flow of 10-15 kt with seas around 3-4 feet. Guidance continues to hint at a localized surge of 15-20 kt with some infrequent gusts to 25 kt for the northern waters and Pamlico Sound with the tightening thermal gradient, but this will be too brief to warrant any headlines.
Weather pattern changes little tomorrow with predominantly southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt expected through Monday. Like today, there will likely be a thermal gradient tomorrow resulting in 15-20 kt winds across the northern waters and sounds, with a risk of infrequent 25 kt gusts. Seas remain at 3-4 feet through the period.
Monday night through Thursday As of 330 PM Sunday,
key messages
- Good boating conditions expected early next week
forecast details
High pressure will shift offshore early next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
