Key MESSAGE 1, Today will be dry for much of the day as a frontal system approaches from the northwest associated with a parent low pressure system over eastern Canada. As the front moves through overnight tonight and into Friday morning, rain chances will increase, aided by moisture associated with the remnants of Post Tropical Storm Arthur. Late this evening instability will be decent with CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range although shear will be fairly low but increasing through the night. Some low level helicity values above 100 m2/s2 will mean that the primary threats for any severe weather would be damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado or waterspout. As such, SPC has the area in a marginal risk for severe weather through Friday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2, High temperature this afternoon are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. With Tds in the low 70s, heat index values will hover plus or minus 105F in many areas. Therefore have decided to go with a heat advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM for all counties outside of the Outer Banks. As far as fire weather is concerned, winds ahead of the approaching front will pick up (gusts 25-30 mph) and RHs 35-45% paired with dry fuels will present fire weather concerns today. An Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect for all of ENC except for Onslow and Carteret counties for Thursday.
The passing front will cool the region down briefly for the weekend, but medium range guidance suggests excessive heat will remain a concern early next week with heat index values once again reaching 100 degrees+.
12z Thursday through Monday Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Do have some MVFR cigs at KISO this morning but don't expect those to last long. Otherwise mainly clear conditions prevailing. There will be a steady increase in southwest winds as strong cold front approaches from the west Thursday morning, peaking in the afternoon with gusts 25+ kt likely. This will result in a crosswind component for KEWN runway 14R/32L. As the potential for precipitation and thunder moves in later this evening, added a PROB30 group for thunder very late in the TAF period, from 9-12z.
Outlook: More widespread TSRA threat and lower ceilings returns overnight tonight and especially Friday with a stronger front. Overnight fog and stratus threat possible each morning late this week into the weekend. Weekend is trending drier and more quiet with predominant VFR expected.
Increasing southwesterly winds this afternoon and Friday across all waters ahead of an approaching cold front. Gale Warnings remain in effect with this update. At this time winds inside the sounds may stay just below Gale criteria but will have to watch the observations for a potential expansion of Gale Warnings into the Pamlico Sound.
With the remnants of Post Tropical Storm Arthur moving through the area Friday, the track of the remnant low will be worth monitoring. An inland track, which is the current expectation, could bring a waterspout threat to waters Friday in addition to thunderstorms.
Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Periodic nocturnal and early morning risk of showers and thunderstorms is possible each weeknight, although most likely odds will be overnight tonight into Friday. Boating conditions improve over the weekend behind the passing front, with next threat window for mariners early next week ahead of another front.
Nc, heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz195-196- 199-204-205. Marine, small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 11 pm EDT this evening for amz131-136-137-230-231. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Friday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 am EDT Friday for amz150. Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am EDT Friday for amz152-154-156. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Friday for amz158. Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 5 am EDT Friday for amz180-182-184-186-188.
