Key MESSAGE 1, NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Winds will be a bit stronger than yesterday as the pressure gradient becomes pinched ahead of an approaching front. Rhs will be the limiting factor with hi-res guidance showing min-RHs in the 45-50%+ range across the coastal plain this afternoon. Fire weather conditions may return next week behind the front, but this will hinge on rainfall amounts Sunday and Sunday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Today will be our last round of mostly dry and above normal temperatures as high pressure continues to be anchored offshore. There's a low end chance for some isolated diurnal showers this afternoon, but this will mainly be away from the immediate coast. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s inland and 70s to low-80s at the beaches with some inland areas flirting with records (see Climate Section).
KEY MESSAGE 3, A cold front will approach the area on Sunday and cross ENC late Sunday/early Monday. Rain chances will increase through the day on Sunday with the potential for a few thunderstorms both ahead of and along the front. Shear will be plentiful but instability will be fairly muted with hi-res guidance generally showing < 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Spc has outlined all of ENC in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather with the main hazard of concern being damaging wind gusts. Qpf is 0.5-1" with locally higher amounts possible.
Once the front is offshore, guidance continues to depict a low pressure system developing and traveling along it early next week. The low is expected to pass far enough offshore to keep the area mostly dry through mid-week. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s before warming back into the 70s by late week.
06z Saturday through Wednesday VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period with upper ridging and sfc high pressure continuing to be centered offshore. Guidance does show low probabilities for seeing shallow fog development near southern coastal sections (around 20-30% at EWN and OAJ) between 8-12z this morning if winds decouple sufficiently, though impacts should be minimal. Expect S to SW winds with gusts around 15-20 kt and diurnal few-sct cumulus clouds late morning and afternoon. Vfr prevails tonight with sufficient mixing precluding fog development as gradients tighten ahead of an approaching cold front.
Outlook: A cold front will approach the area Sunday and push through Sunday evening bringing a chance for sub-VFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms, with the best chances for sub-VFR from Sunday evening into the pre-dawn hours Monday. Moderate SW winds continue Sunday ahead of the front with gusts around 20-25kt expected. Pred VFR expected Monday through Wednesday with high pressure over the area, through a dry reinforcing cold front will push through the area Tuesday.
Ssw winds at 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt and 3-4 ft seas will persist through this afternoon. Tonight, the gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching cold front. Sw winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt and 3-5 ft seas. Conditions will continue to deteriorate through Sunday with SW winds peaking in the afternoon at 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt and seas building to 4-6 ft. The cold front will cross the waters late Sunday/early Monday and veer the winds to the north. The northerly surge behind the front will be short-lived with gusts dropping below 25 kt by early Monday afternoon. Elevated seas, however, may linger a bit longer across the outer central waters. Given the above, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout and is in effect from 11 PM tonight to 11 AM Monday. Scas were not yet issued for remaining marine zones given that those conditions won't deteriorate until Sunday morning, but headlines will likely be needed with future updates. This front will produce showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong wind gusts.
Outlook: Once SCAs drop on Monday, we should remain headline free until late Tuesday when the next front is expected to pass. The latest forecast has NE winds at 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30+ kt and 5-9 ft seas Tuesday night through Wednesday. Wave heights will slightly improve on Thursday but will remain elevated through the rest of the week.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 am EDT Monday for amz152-154-156.
