A dry cold front shifts offshore tonight. Cooler high pressure then builds back in from the northwest early this week, with another quick moving front pushing through the area by mid-week. Behind this system, a warming trend will bring increasing temperatures through late week.
Until 6 am Monday morning As of 640 PM Sunday,
Key Messages
- Red Flag Warning expired at 6 PM
- Brief cooldown tonight into Monday night
A cold front is progressing through ENC, about to shift offshore. Behind the front, strong CAA will send temperatures falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s, which is right around, or slightly below, normal for this time of year.
6 am Monday morning through Monday night As of 145 PM Sunday,
High pressure will build in from the west through the day Monday, which will eventually lead to much lighter winds. However, continued CAA and enhanced mixing during the morning and early afternoon hours will combine with a residually modest pressure gradient to support several hours of breezy winds from just after sunrise through around 1-2pm. The continued CAA behind the front will also help to keep temps down much lower compared to today, with highs topping out in the upper 50s to near 60. With high pressure squarely overhead Monday night, winds are expected to be very light, setting up decent radiational cooling conditions. Normally this type of setup would favor going below blended guidance. However, the potential for mid/high clouds suggests radiational cooling effects may be tampered some. Additionally, bias-corrected blended guidance is already below the 25th percentile of all guidance. Lows around the 25th percentile of guidance appears reasonable in this setup, especially given the potential for high clouds, so no change from guidance was made. Regardless, widespread low to mid 30s appears likely. The coldest locations with limited cloudcover could see lows fall below freezing. The areas most likely to get close to, or below, freezing are the same counties where the frost/freeze program has ended for 2025, therefore no headlines are anticipated.
Tuesday through Sunday As of 145 PM Sunday,
Key Messages:
- Elevated fire weather concerns possible again Monday afternoon
- Extended period of above normal temperatures appears likely from mid-week on
- Stronger frontal system possible late week/early next weekend
Another cold front will cross ENC Tuesday night, but this one also looks fairly moisture starved with only slight chance PoPs in the forecast for northern zones. Guidance has trended towards stalling this boundary across the region through the later half of the week, but this is only expected to bring increased cloud cover with no rain chances expected. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s Wednesday through Saturday.
Next weekend looks to bring a stronger frontal system that will bring a better chance of rain to the area (20-30%).
00z Monday through Friday As of 640 PM Sunday,
Key Messages:
- VFR conditions expected through the TAF period
- NW winds gusting to 15-20 knots Monday
High pressure builds in behind the cold front that is about to move offshore. This will result in clear skies and NW winds 4-10 kts tonight, gusting to 15-20 kts Monday during daytime heating.
Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through Tuesday with high pressure building across the region. A couple of weak systems transit the area Tuesday night through Thursday that could bring isolated showers across rtes with lower cigs, however guidance keeps VFR.
As of 145 PM Sunday,
Key Messages
- Elevated to strong winds to continue into this evening
- Elevated seas to last into Monday
- Elevated winds and seas potentially return late in the week
West to southwest winds of 15-25kt are ongoing at this time, with higher gusts. The strongest winds are currently impacting the warmer coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, where gusts of 30-35kt have been observed at times. Winds may lay down a bit over the next few hours, but a cold front will move through this evening, with a renewed round of enhanced mixing potentially supporting a continued risk of 25-35kt gusts. In light of this, the Gale Warning has been extended out through 10pm this evening. Elsewhere, wind gusts look to hold in the 25-30kt range, and SCAs will continue there. Winds will lay down more substantially by Monday afternoon, and especially by Monday night as high pressure builds in.
For the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout, seas of 4-8ft are expected to continue through tonight, then lay down to 2-4ft by Monday night. South of Lookout, seas of 4-7ft this afternoon are expected to lay down to 2-4ft by Monday afternoon.
Outlook: High pressure moves offshore on Tuesday, with southerly flow developing. Winds will then flip back and forth between south and north as a couple of weak fronts move through. At this time, these fronts are not expected to support 25kt, or higher, winds. By late in the week, strengthening southerly flow may support the next round of 25kt+ winds and 6ft+ seas.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 4 am EST Monday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory until 6 am EST Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory until noon EST Monday for amz150. Gale warning until 10 pm EST this evening for amz152-154-156- 158.
