Key MESSAGE 1, With a similar setup to the past couple nights, low stratus and areas of fog likely to develop over the SW portions of the area late this morning. Best chances are in Onslow/Duplin county, decreasing as you go further north and east. A weak meso low approaching the crystal coast will bring scattered cloud cover along the Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow, potentially dampening the fog threat in this region. As a result, there is some higher uncertainty for coastal counties on fog potential. Fog and low stratus will quickly scour out by 9 am.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The persistent ridging aloft will break down a tad today into the weekend, slowly increasing our moisture in mid and upper levels. As a result, we will have a bit more moisture to play with today as the front approaches from the north. The front has trended a bit slower with this update, now entering the CWA around 00Z. This will allow southerly flow through much of the day, warming us up to near 90F inland, 80s along the coast. The sea breeze will kick off late this morning, and we are expecting to produce isolated to scattered convection with the increased moisture in place. Best chances along the coast in the morning, then transitioning inland during the afternoon. While moisture is increased, we still have some dry air aloft which could inhibit deep convection. However, if storms overcome this dry layer, steep lapse rates could bring some gusty winds in the most organized of storms. Where the sea breeze collides with the approaching cold front in the NW portion of the CWA PoPs and QPF are maximized.
The front will drop into our CWA this evening and tonight, eventually stalling across NC through Friday as it encounters ridging. With the front stalling, easterly flow to the north of it will keep us a bit cooler and more stable. As a result, thunder probs are lower for the northern half of the CWA. Along the Crystal Coast, southerly flow may persist south of the stalled boundary, and thunder probs are higher here as instability builds. Weaker lapse rates should keep storms more tame on Friday and coverage should be more isolated to scattered compared to today and Saturday. Saturday the front lifts north again, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected along it.
Beyond Sat, the front becomes weak as it sits to our north and diurnal sea and sound breezes become dominant, focusing the highest shower and thunderstorm chances inland. Each of these days carries a low, highly conditional severe risk as well per ML guidance.
Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over urban areas, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought.
06z Thursday through Monday We have a similar set up as to the past few nights this morning with potential for another round of fog and low stratus, especially across the SW forecast area. Models have struggled with the fog and low stratus the past few nights, being too passive compared to what has actually occurred. Expect this to occur again in the morning, so continue to lean towards persistence. Best chances of VLIFR-IFR late tonight are for OAJ, decreasing as you go north and east, though some guidance does bring a greater extent of stratus across the coastal plain. Vfr will return for most of Thu, with sct showers and storms developing in the afternoon. Front approaches from the north in the evening, with showers and thunderstorms along it and low ceilings moving in behind it
Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions Thursday night into early next week.
Latest obs show SSW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Summer- like pattern will continue through today, with lighter winds in the mornings then increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evenings as the thermal gradient tightens. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening. A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area this evening/night, then linger near the waters into Saturday. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. Ne-e winds will develop behind the front, while remaining SSW ahead of it, generally 5-15 kt. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Monday.
Outlook: The front lifts back north Saturday, with southerly flow continuing through the rest of the period. A coastal trough is expected to set up late this weekend into next week, but winds are expected to remain below 25 knots through the period.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
