KEY MESSAGE 1, A sea-breeze develops today as sfc high edges offshore and flow becomes onshore. A shortwave will swing through the Mid Atlantic tonight and push a weak backdoor cool front through ENC. This may trigger some overnight showers tonight, and rain chances remain in the 20-30% range, highest acrs northern zones where better forcing is located.
KEY MESSAGE 2, No major changes with forecast thinking as we will continue to gradually warm through the weekend. Upper level trough that is currently overhead will gradually push offshore with more zonal flow, albeit above normal heights, setting up across the Eastern Seaboard. Dry conditions expected this weekend. Sunday and Monday are the warmest days, reaching well into the 80s interior zones (70s coast). Fire weather concerns should remain rather low, despite the mainly dry conditions, due to light winds forecast through the weekend with high pressure dominating.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Stronger shortwave and deeper upper troughing then track across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Mon bringing a backdoor cold front quickly through the area. 20/00z models have converged on timing with fropa, all bringing it through between 18-00Z Mon afternoon. Pops have decreased with this update, as the front is moisture starved and GOM cut off. Instability is negligible due to lack of moisture, and thunder removed from fcst. The main sensible weather with this front will be a rapid increase of northerly winds behind it with temps dropping through the afternoon and into evening.
06z Friday through Tuesday VFR conditions expected through the period with clear and calm conditions tonight. Ideal radiational cooling conditions expected but fog potential low (probability < 10%) with a very dry airmass in place and crossover temps below forecast lows. Maybe we see some shallow patchy fog bringing obs down around sunrise, but it will be non-impactful and fleeting. Winds become southerly Friday afternoon around 5-10 kt with gusts to around 15 kt. Isolated showers possible Saturday morning ahead of a weakening front and will see lowering cigs but should remain VFR. The front will push through the area Saturday.
Outlook, A chance of lowering visibilities Sunday morning with clear skies, light to calm winds, and dewpoints in the low 50s. A frontal system Monday brings gustier winds, currently forecast to be around 20 knots out of the east/northeast along with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms with sub- VFR ceilings possible.
Seas cont to subside, and will retire the SCA at 9am this morning as the nerly swell subsides below 6 ft in several hours. Today, high pres edges offshore, allowing for onshore sea breeze to develop this afternoon. Winds will switch rapidly esp nearshore as inland heating commences and initiates the sea/sound/river breezes. Speeds should be in the 5-15 kt range, closer to 5 kt offshore closer to the high. Seas cont to subside to 2-4 ft. Tonight, with high shifting further offshore, swrly gradient will remain generally in the 10-15 kt range, though a bit higher and closer to 20 kt over the warm Gulf waters. Marginal SCA gusts (25kt) are possible here later tonight.
Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): This weekend, a backdoor front pushes through later in the day Sat with winds becoming nerly but remaining below SCA levels. Winds then turn swrly on Sunday once again. On Monday, SW wind increase with 10-20 kt winds expected, with some 25+ kt possible on the Gulf Stream waters, ahead of approaching cold front. Front passes through Mon afternoon with stout 20-30 kt northerly winds developing in its wake through Mon night into Tue, with seas rapidly building to 6+ ft behind the front later Monday. Some gale force gusts not out of the question, particularly on the Gulf waters.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for amz152- 154.
