Key MESSAGE 1, Strong cold front is steadily working its way off the Carolina coastline this hour with a decaying band of anafrontal precipitation passing over much of the area as seen on radar. Precipitation amounts thus far are averaging between a tenth to a quarter of an inch, and up to an extra tenth is probable before lift and moisture move offshore.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A deep, and dry, northerly flow will develop across the Carolinas today, and RH values will fall below 30% for much of the region. This will overlap with breezy conditions with gusts up to 25-30 kt at times, leading to an increased fire danger for roughly the western half of ENC. Increased Fire Danger statement (IFD) has been extended to Beaufort and Pamlico counties this morning, remaining in effect through sunset. Across the Outer Banks, the cool and more moist onshore flow off the Atlantic should limit the fire danger.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Cooler, below normal temperatures return for the weekend as high pressure asserts itself over much of the eastern CONUS. With calm winds and mainly clear skies, this will set the stage for an effective radiational cooling event for most inland areas of ENC. Nbm probabilities for frost are now above 80% for most inland areas, but freeze probabilities are still around 20%. This is likely an underestimation, as NBM has historically had too warm of lows in radiational cooling regimes. Because of this, a Freeze Watch has been issued for most inland counties for tonight into Sun morning.
06z Saturday through Wednesday Sub-VFR conditions will continue through later this morning as a cold front is currently moving through the Carolinas. Ceilings continue to hover right between IFR and MVFR conditions with most of the coast seeing IFR ceilings of 700-900 ft, and farther inland seeing slightly higher ceilings of 1000-1400 ft. As we go through the rest of the night, ceilings should trend slightly lower, and a couple hour period of IFR ceilings is possible at all the TAF sites before drier air quickly moves in behind the front. Flying conditions will quickly improve to VFR from north to south around sunrise, with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies continuing through tonight. Strong NE winds have developed early this morning with gusts to 20-25 kts possible for the remainder of the night. Winds will shift slightly to the north today, and become stronger, gusting 30-35 kts in the afternoon under peak mixing, before subsiding tonight.
Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend and into early next week with high pressure over the region.
Strong CAA is increasing in the wake of a passing cold front this morning, with area observations showing NE winds around 20 kt with higher gusts and seas rising to 6-7 feet already north of Cape Hatteras. Highest winds likely this morning into the afternoon with gusts of 35-40 kt offshore, and more scatter-shot Gale conditions across the Pamlico Sound. Seas will build to 6-10 ft today, then gradually subside through the weekend. Sub- SCA conditions for offshore waters will likely return Sun afternoon, but by Sun morning for soundside waters and rivers.
No significant changes were made to marine headlines.
Outlook: Mostly benign conditions expected for much of next week with high pressure centered off the coast.
Nc, freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz131- 230-231. Small craft advisory until 4 am EDT early this morning for amz135-152-154-156-158. Gale warning until 6 pm EDT this evening for amz135. Small craft advisory until 5 pm EDT this afternoon for amz136- 137. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for amz150. Gale warning from 8 am this morning to 4 pm EDT this afternoon for amz150. Gale warning until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz152-154-156- 158.
