Key MESSAGE 1, No real changes to todays forecast at temps have already gotten into the upper 80s across our inland zones and mid 70s across the OBX with temps forecast to warm slightly compared to current obs. With dewpoints in the 50s, RH's have already dropped into the 20s to low 30s across portions of ENC this afternoon with MinRH's forecast to be around 20-30% today. Wind gusts could get as high as 20 mph at times especially behind the seabreeze as it works its way inland. With ongoing wildfires already occuring across ENC and the threat for easy ignition of fires given the dry and gusty conditions, in collaboration with the NCFS an Increased Fire Danger Statement remains out out across Martin and Beaufort Counties and points south until 8PM. With a cold front pushing through the area on Sunday and rain in the forecast, don't expect any additional Increased Fire Danger Statements out this weekend. But, the shift in winds will be noticeable on Sun as gusts get to about 20-25 mph behind the front.
ENC remains under widespread drought conditions with just about the entire area under severe drought (D2) conditions with a small sliver of Martin county under extreme drought (D3) conditions. The lack of rain continues to be rather noticeable across the Southeastern US, with rainfall amounts since March 23 running about 10-50% below normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period. To add some additional perspective, it would take roughly 9-12" of rain over the course of one month to end the drought here in ENC. Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Either way, a statewide burn ban remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.
key message 2, No real changes in forecast thinking over the next several days as ENC finally sees a more active precip pattern into next weekend. We are already seeing some isolated showers develop along the sea/sound/river breezes this afternoon, but the main show will be tonight into Sunday as a surface low and its associated frontal boundaries track E'wards across the Carolinas as a mid level shortwave quickly transits across the Mid- Atlantic. With low level moisture continuing to increase, expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across ENC starting from west to east this evening and becoming more widespread as the night progresses and this activity gradually pushes towards the coast. Guidance continues to suggest any storms that do develop will likely remain sub-severe as deep layer shear generally remains 25 kts or less, instability is meager, and greatest forcing from the approaching front is located to the north. Rainfall totals still look to generally remain below 0.5 inches overall, although could see higher amounts in thunderstorms with some HiRes guidance showing localized areas over one inch primarily along the coast and OBX. A decent N'rly surge of winds will move over the area Sun afternoon into Monday with high pressure ridging in from the north.
A progressive pattern will continue through the week with guidance showing another low pressure system pushing across the area on Wednesday followed by another southern stream system potentially impacting the area next weekend. Latest trends suggest an increasing rain threat for Wed and potentially a more suppressed system over next weekend. Will note, run to run consistency and agreement among the models continues to be poor, so confidence is not that high in the forecast details but it is encouraging to see a more active pattern emerging in the models. While rainfall amounts through the week will likely not have a tremendous impact with alleviating the drought, hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will help reduce the wildfire threat across the region.
18z Saturday through Thursday VFR conditions are present this afternoon across ENC, and are expected to continue through early this evening. Thereafter, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will lead to periods of sub-VFR conditions through late tonight. Eventually, low level stratus will overspread the area by early tomorrow morning as cold front enters from the northwest, and ceilings will lower from MVFR levels to IFR levels. Ifr conditions will then persist through at least mid morning, but could hold on longer with a low level inversion and NE flow behind a cold front.
Outlook: Sub-VFR ceilings will likely continue through most of tomorrow afternoon, with VFR conditions slowly returning from west to east tomorrow night with NE flow continuing across the area. Eventually high pressure builds close enough from the NW to bring all areas up to VFR levels Tuesday.
Sca's from this morning have come to an end and our best boating conditions for likely a large portion of the next several days is currently over the area. Warm front located to the north has begun to lift north, while a thermal trough has set up across the Coastal Plain this afternoon. This has brought 10-15 kt SW winds and gusts up to 20 kts across most of our waters today with seas generally around 2-4 ft along the coastal waters. This will last into tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes as a low pressure system passes by to the north. However, as we get into Sunday this low will deepen as it pushes offshore and as its associated cold front tracks across our waters the gradient will pinch between this departing low/front and incoming ridge of high pressure to the north. This will allow for winds to shift to a N'rly direction and quickly increase from north to south late Sun morning into Sun evening. Behind the front 20-25 kt N'rly winds with gusts up towards 30-35 kts at times are forecast across all waters by Sun evening. In response to the elevated winds, seas will build to 7-10 ft north of Cape Hatteras and 5-8 ft south of Cape Hatteras. The combination of winds and seas will bring SCA conditions to all waters. While we can't rule out a few gale force gusts especially across portions of the coastal waters south of Hatteras Island and in the Alligator River Bridge/Pamlico Sound, think gusts will be infrequent enough to preclude a gale warning across these waters.
Outlook: Northerly winds gradually diminish through mid week, becoming less than 15 kt Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds overhead and deepening low pressure pushes out into the central Atlantic. Seas will remain elevated, however, with SCA conditions persisting across the nearshore coastal waters into midweek.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 11 am Sunday to 2 pm EDT Monday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory from 2 pm Sunday to 8 pm EDT Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 4 pm Sunday to 8 am EDT Monday for amz136-137. Small craft advisory from 11 am Sunday to 2 am EDT Wednesday for amz150. Small craft advisory from 2 pm Sunday to 2 pm EDT Wednesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 2 pm Sunday to 2 am EDT Wednesday for amz156-158.
