Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

730 am EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

Synopsis

Strong high pressure will build in from the north today as low pressure moves offshore. The high will continue to extend across the area through Thursday then slide offshore Friday and Saturday. The next frontal system will impact the region Sunday into Monday.

Near Term

Through today As of 730 AM Tue, Have bumped up pops a bit through first half of the morning, as area of stratiform light rain continues to slowly drift south and east associated with post frontal lift. Light rain will end through the morning, and the Sun will make an appearance by this afternoon as a drying column ensues.

Previous discussion, As of 330 AM Tue, Sfc analysis indicates low pres/cold front has pushed offshore as of early this morning. Some light showers and/or drizzle will continue until around daybreak, then drying conditions today. The low will deepen rapidly as it pushes further offshore producing a tightening pressure gradient across the area today resulting in very windy conditions developing along the OBX. Winds will gust upwards of 50 mph at times. Gusty winds elsewhere on the coast could gust upwards of 40-45 mph, and further inland up to around 30 mph. See Tides/Coastal Flooding section below for coastal impacts. High temps quite a bit cooler than yesterday, only reaching into the upr 40s nrn OBX to the mid 50s SW zones.

Short Term

Tonight As of 330 AM Tue, High pres ridges into the Carolinas tonight, with centering over the Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic region. Tough temperature forecast tonight, and will be critical as E NC is now in the growing season. Expecting some bndry layer mixing to persist with NE gradient continuing. However, with low lvl thicknesses only around 1300M, these values would suggest freezing temps. With just enough mixing, do not expect more than an hour or two of some locations inland reaching freezing or below. If winds are less than currently forecast, chances for a freeze increase. So will have to watch trends carefully on later shifts to see if freeze headlines will be eventually needed. Td vals expected to drop into the mid 20s, which would preclude much in the way of frost.

Long Term

Wednesday through Monday As of 300 AM Tue, Dry with a warming trend Wed thru Sat. Next front will impact region late this weekend into early next week.

Wed through Saturday, The high pressure ridge axis will shift off the New England coast though continue to nose southwest over Eastern NC through the period with dry weather expected. Gusty coastal winds will cont Wed then grad diminish. Temps may be close to freezing again for minimum temps early Thursday morning inland, then moderate into the 60s by Thursday afternoon. Building heights and thicknesses will lead to temps rising above climatology by Friday into Saturday with lower 70s Fri and mid/upper 70s Sat inland.

Sunday thru Mon, Guidance indicates a strong trough will dig into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday, with a surface low moving from the southern Great Lakes into southern Quebec, dragging a cold front through Eastern NC sometime late Sunday into Sunday night. Differences cont amongst guidance with regards to location/timing and moisture assoc with the front so will cap PoPs at Chance. Temperatures remain mild Sunday with highs in the low/mid 70s inland to 60s beaches. Temps cool behind the front Mon with highs mid 50s to low 60s.

Aviation

11z Tuesday through Saturday Through tonight As of 730 AM Tue, Band of IFR stratus mixing out this morning as drier air filters in from the north and west. Skies become MVFR for several hours this morning, then VFR and mostly SKC by this afternoon. Winds will be gusty today out of the north and gust upwards of 20-30 kt. The gusty winds will abate by sunset, with generally around 5-7 kt winds expected tonight.

Wed through Sat As of 300 AM Tue, High pressure building N of the region will keep area dry with pred VFR.

Marine

Through tonight As of 730 AM Tue, Gales have commenced early this morning as expected, and are currently in the 25-35 kt range with gusts to around 40 kt. Gales will continue through the day today, and only slowly decrease through the evening, but remain strong SCA where they do decrease.

Prev discussion, As of 330 AM Tue, Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly this morning as gusty north to northeast winds develop behind the departing storm system. Winds across the marine area are expected to increase from around 15 kt to over 35 kt within only a couple of hours, between about 8Z and 14Z. Continue the Gale Warning for all waters except the inland rivers where the Small Craft Advisory remains. Seas will build rapidly today with guidance showing 10-15 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet to 6-10 ft south by this afternoon. These dangerous seas will continue through tonight with gale force winds continuing.

Wed through Sat As of 300 AM Tue, Gale warning continue for Pamlico Sound and Coastal waters thru mid to late Wed with SCA other wtrs. Nne winds 25 to 35 kts Wed morn will diminish slowly to 20 to 30 kts late. Winds will cont to grad diminish as high pres builds in with speeds 15 kt or less by late Thu. The high will be over region Fri with light and variable winds. As the high slides offshore Sat winds become S less than 15 kt.

Seas of 8 to 13 feet early Wed (highest N and outer wtrs) will very slowly diminish to 6 to 12 feet by Wed evening and drop further to 4 to 8 ft Thu. Despite very light winds Fri lingering swell will keep seas over the outer wtrs in the 4 to 6 foot range. The swell will slowly diminish into Sat but still looks like some 5 foot seas cont over outer wtrs.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, wind advisory until 6 am EDT Wednesday for ncz103-104. High surf advisory from 6 pm this evening to 11 pm EDT Wednesday for ncz095-104. High surf advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm EDT Wednesday for ncz103. Coastal flood advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 am EDT Wednesday for ncz093>095. Marine, small craft advisory until 6 pm EDT Wednesday for amz136-137. Gale warning until 8 am EDT Wednesday for amz135. Gale warning until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz130-131. Gale warning until 6 pm EDT Wednesday for amz152-154-156-158. Gale warning until 2 am EDT Wednesday for amz150.

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