Key MESSAGE 1, As of 8pm, clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing from central into eastern NC, with occasional bouts of strong/damaging winds. The overall severe weather risk is expected to continue to lessen as the boundary layer stabilizes and as low- level lapse rates weaken with increasing CIN. The thunderstorm risk is expected to last until around/shortly after midnight until the upper level shortwave passes fully offshore.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Dangerous heat builds out of the central part of the United States and into our area by weeks end. No significant changes to the extended forecast as an omega block sets up across the Eastern CONUS with anomalous ridging persisting across the the midwest and eastern US next week. This will bring the potential for an extended period of dangerous heat to ENC starting Thursday and continuing into the July 4th weekend. Nws probabilistic Heat Risk values of reaching major heat risk levels or higher are currently sitting at about, 60-80% on Thurs, and 80-90% on Fri/Sat which is fairly notable given the higher end values this far out. This would be reflective of high temperatures above 100 inland, with heat indices potentially reaching or exceeding 110 degrees. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside later next week should continue to monitor the forecast trends as this potential heat wave would have impacts on the holiday weekend.
00z Monday through Friday An upper level disturbance is pivoting through the eastern Carolinas at this time, and until it moves offshore, will continue to promote a risk of TSRA impacts for all TAF sites. It looks like this risk should begin to decrease after 05-06z tonight. Where TSRA occur, there will be a risk of 40kt+ wind gusts. In the wake of the TSRA, guidance continue to suggest there will be a period of IFR/MVFR CIGs within the developing northeasterly flow. I kept the previous TAFs mostly unchanged, but adjusted the timing of the low CIG potential.
On Monday, heating of a residually moist airmass may support a few SHRA or TSRA in the late morning or afternoon hours, but confidence in this is too low to include a TSRA mention for now. Morning low CIGs are expected to rise to low VFR by late morning or early afternoon.
Outlook (Mon afternoon through Thu): Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible each morning.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will remain a risk through around midnight tonight, with areas of 40kt+ wind gusts and frequent, dangerous lightning.
Outlook (Monday through Friday): Winds will eventually shift from the SW to the NE into Monday from N to S behind a backdoor cold front. We will have a brief window of near SCA conditions Monday afternoon and evening, especially off Cape Hatteras and closer to the Gulf Stream where winds briefly may touch 25 kts with seas nearing 6 feet for a time. By Tuesday, winds wil begin to relax with east to southeast light winds through the end of the week.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
