Key MESSAGE 1, NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Rhs have failed to drop below 40% this afternoon and winds have stayed just below criteria. Fire weather risk will be marginal for the next couple of days, and IFD issuance may still be needed in subsequent forecasts.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Dry and warming forecast through the remainder of the work- week, with model consensus keeping the high anchored offshore, precluding any precip associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast. Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids, will be later in the week (THU-SAT) as trough approaches from the west. This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with high temps mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches. Mints generally around 60. A few records could be threatened through the rest of the week - see the CLIMATE section for details.
KEY MESSAGE 3, A cold front will approach the area Sunday, moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday. Increasing shower chances Sunday and Sunday night, along with isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. Qpf amounts are trending somewhat lower from the previous forecast but forcing still appears strong enough to warrant continued categorical PoPs for the period.
NBM has caught on to the trend in deterministic guidance of the low pressure system expected to develop and travel along the front early next week, passing far enough offshore to keep the area mostly dry early next week. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early next week.
00z Friday through Tuesday ENC remains in a stagnant weather pattern with high pressure offshore and the primary storm track remaining well to the west and north of the area. Weak instability and moisture will be enough for some afternoon cumulus clouds FRI, but the diurnal CU field will remain VFR. South winds may occasionally gust up to 20kt during the daylight hours FRI, but sustained, and frequent, gusts to 20kt are not expected. Shallow moisture and relatively light winds may support a risk of sub VFR VIS in BR/MIFG early FRI morning. However, widespread impactful reductions to VIS are not anticipated. Href probs of MVFR are ~30% at their peak. Have introduced prevailing line of VFR minor fog to all TAF sites in the early morning hours. Highest confidence, albeit still low, for VIS reductions to MVFR levels are over coastal TAF sites (OAJ, EWN). Worth noting is sea fog over Nern coastal waters overnight may spread over NOBX terminals. This fog has a higher incidence rate within the model suite and may reduce VIS to IFR or lower over NOBX terminals like FFA and MQI.
Outlook: This same weather pattern will hold through Saturday, then it will begin to change on Sunday as a cold front moves through. That front will bring a chance of SHRA, TSRA, and sub- VFR conditions. Additionally, there will be a risk of gusty winds of 20- 25kt in advance of the front.
Latest obs show Serly winds generally 5-10kt inside, 10-15kt with some higher gusts over outside waters N of Cape Lookout with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the first half of the weekend, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place through the period. Serly winds remain in place FRI generally 10-15kt gusting up to 20kt during peak heating. With the evening update, have added sea fog to Wx grids based off latest guidance and previous VIS forecast iteration. This fog could be dense at times and conditions will need to be monitored for possible Marine Dense Fog Advisory issuance. Nern coastal waters are only area of concern, though in the early morning hours, fog may advect across NOBX and into Nern sounds.
Outlook (Saturday into Tuesday): SSW winds will increase through the day Sat into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Fropa is expected late SUN into MON, which is the next best chance of SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. Sca conditions could begin as early as Saturday night. A minority of guidance does depict a minor risk of gales (10-20%), although this is confined to the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Front will be accompanied with showers and tstorms. N-NE winds will develop behind the front and continue through mid next week.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
