High pressure slowly slides farther offshore today with seasonable and dry conditions continuing. Low pressure will approach the area tonight and slowly move across ENC Thursday into Thursday night bringing the potential for heavy rainfall across the region. The low will pull away from the area Friday with a cold front moving through ENC this weekend.
Through tonight As of 230 PM Wednesday, High pressure continues to shift offshore away from the coast today with a broad area of weak low pressure off the GA/SC coast, slowly lifting north closer to Eastern NC later tonight. Moderate to heavy rainfall will approach Duplin and Onslow counties in the early morning hours before sunrise. Southeasterly winds continue around 5-15 mph through the day, becoming lighter tonight ahead of the approaching low.
Thursday As of 245 PM Wednesday,
Key Messages:
- Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible Thursday into Thursday night
Weak low pressure is forecast to lift towards the area Thu and track across ENC Thu night, which will bring numerous moderate to heavy showers with a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms. Rain will increase in coverage for the swrn zones first, quickly spreading n and e through the rest of ENC during the morning into afternoon hours Thursday.
Periods of heavy rain will be the main threat with this low, as PW's surge above 2". See HYDROLOGY section for information on rainfall totals and flash flooding potential. Low level helicity ramps up as well Thursday evening due to backed low level winds. Very limited instability is present however, so no more than chance thunder is expected at this time. If instability creeps upwards from their current forecast values of around 500 J/KG, a tornado threat may be present during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday ahead of the low.
Thursday night through Wednesday As of 345 AM Tue,
Key Messages:
- Unsettled weather will continue through much of the long term.
- Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening.
Guidance coming into better agreement with the low pressure area moving offshore Friday morning and accelerating away from the area Friday afternoon and night. Heaviest precip is progged to be off the coast but scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible across the region Friday. Temps will be a few degrees below normal with N to NW flow behind the departing low.
A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate instability (SBCAPE values peak around 1500-2000+ J/Kg) and 0-6k wind shear around 30-35 kt. Pw values remain around the 90th percentile and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well. Most guidance shows the front stalling across the area Sunday into Monday. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the long term with highs in the low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast.
An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long term. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical moisture feed into the region with PW values around 1.75-2" most days,which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day. Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle of next week.
As of 500 PM Wed, A potential for heavy rainfall on Thursday as weak low pres approaches and moves through ENC. This is on top of parts of the region that have seen plenty of rainfall already over the past 2 weeks. Near record PWATs paired with the slow moving low is fcst to drop 1-3" of rainfall over much of the region, with a reasonable worst case scenario being localized maximums of 6-8". Wpc currently outlooks the entire eastern half of NC in a day 2 Marginal (1/5) risk of excessive rainfall with a Slight (2/5) risk bullseye centered over the Crystal Coast . Impacts depend on the convective mesoscale details as banding precipitation and training of storms will play a big role in the precip distribution. General rainfall totals (not including any training or banding) are expected to be less for NOBX and surrounding areas (0.5-1"), and highest along and south of hwy 70 and western Pamlico Sound (2-3")
21z Wednesday through Monday Through tonight As of 345 PM Wed, VFR flight cats through the evening and first half of tonight. As we approach daybreak, low clouds will start streaming in ahead of a weak low that will traverse through the region. Periods of heavy rain, VCTS, and MVFR to IFR cigs are expected tomorrow morning through the afternoon. Winds will remain SE'rly, decreasing as we get into tonight. Tomorrow, winds will veer through the day as the low progresses through the region.
Thursday through Sunday As of 345 AM Wednesday, A low pressure area will slowly move across rtes Thursday and Thursday night bringing periods of heavy rainfall and sub-VFR conditions. An unsettled pattern will prevail through the rest of the long term keeping periods of showers and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions across the region. There will also be the threat for late night/early morning fog each day as well.
Through Thursday As of 1700 Wednesday, Issued SCAs for Sern and Central waters starting tomorrow afternoon.
Previous disco, 4 PM Wednesday, SE winds 10-15 kt this afternoon as weak low forms to our south. These winds will persist through tonight. Seas will cont in the 2-3 ft range today, and inc tonight to 3-4 ft as srly swell inc with approaching low pres. Inc srly winds and waves through the day Thursday as low pres rides north through ENC, with SCA conditions becoming likely in the afternoon/evening hours for coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as winds inc to 15-25 kt and seas 6+ ft.
Thursday night through Sunday As of 345 AM Wednesday, A low pressure area will track across the waters Thursday night and pull away from the area Friday. Increasing probs for a period of SCA conditions continuing across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. A cold front approaches the area Saturday and could see conditions approach SCA conditions Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. The front stalls across the area Sunday bringing lighter winds and seas.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 5 pm Thursday to 11 am EDT Friday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 5 pm EDT Friday for amz156-158.
