Key MESSAGE 1, A downsloping low-level flow beneath ridging aloft will combine with notably warm low-level thicknesses to support hot, above normal temperatures areawide through the weekend. Despite periods of high clouds overspreading the area today, highs should manage to reach the mid-90s inland, with 80s along the coast. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer (mid to upper 90s inland, low to mid 80s beaches) with inland temperatures flirting with records. See the Climate section for more information. While it will be hot, mixing of a dry airmass will keep dewpoints and humidity levels down, making it more of a "dryish" heat.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The combination of hot temperatures, seasonally low relative humidities, and ongoing drought conditions is expected to support an increased fire danger across all of ENC through the weekend. Of note, rainfall is running about 10-25 percent of normal over the past week across much of ENC. This, combined with the hot and dry conditions, is leading to dry fine fuels and less impact from live fuels. These conditions are noteworthy for this time of year, and is the reason for elevated fire concerns. In collaboration with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect for today, with a continuation into Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 3, An upper level shortwave will traverse the Great Lakes and New England over the next 48 hours. This will push a cold front south through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, reaching northeast NC by Sunday night/early Monday. The front is then forecast to cross ENC during the day Monday. On Sunday, the greatest chance of thunderstorms is expected to reside to our north where forcing along the front will coincide with reduced inhibition and moderate instability. Sunday is expected to remain dry until the evening when chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase to 15-30% across northern zones. It's expected that any convection to the north in Virginia will be moving southeast into a stabilizing airmass across NE NC. Despite increasing inhibition, some elevated/weak thunderstorms may survive into the Albemarle Sound vicinity after sunset. On Monday, the front is expected to be through most of ENC by the time peak heating rolls around, and this is expected to keep the convective risk more muted. If the front were to slow down at all, then the chance of thunderstorms would likely increase. However, for now the most likely scenario is that scattered, weak thunderstorms will develop across the far southwestern counties of ENC, with dry conditions elsewhere. Weak shear and modest instability should keep the risk of severe thunderstorms low on Monday.
00z Sunday through Thursday VFR flight cats are forecast through the TAF period. Gusty winds in place through the remainder of the evening easing overnight, but light breeze and dry low levels precludes fog development again tonight. Sun, almost a copy paste forecast with gusty SWerly winds during peak heating, SCT upper level clouds and maybe some FEW fairweather and non-impactful diurnal cu developing. Will see an increase in lower level cloud coverage from N to S as the front approaches, initially around FL070, SUN night into MON morning.
Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through ENC on Monday with a northeasterly wind shift and the potential for 3-4k ft CIGs. A TSRA risk may accompany this front as well, but mainly for areas in the vicinity of KOAJ.
This weekend will feature a very typical summertime pattern with elevated winds and seas during the peak thermal gradient each afternoon and evening. Given that winds trended up today, SCAs were issued for all zones except the Alligator River. This evening, SW winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. There will be a slight reprieve in the morning before the thermal gradient increases gusts back up to 25-30 kt tomorrow afternoon. These conditions are expected to last into early Monday morning with seas building to 3-5 ft in response.
Outlook: A cold front will move through area waters on Monday with a northeasterly wind shift. While a thunderstorm risk may accompany this front, the risk looks low, and mainly confined to the coastal and offshore waters south of Cape Lookout, as well as inland waterways around the Crystal Coast (New River, Bogue Sound, White Oak River, etc.). A typical summertime pattern returns by the middle of next week.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 204-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 6 am EDT Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for amz136-137. Small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT Sunday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Monday for amz152-154-156. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Monday for amz158. Small craft advisory until 9 am EDT Sunday for amz230-231.
