Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1219 pm EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Synopsis

High pressure will ridge into the region through the weekend. A weak front will cross the area Sunday night. High pressure will build over the area early through mid next week.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 930 AM Fri, Latest sfc analysis shows 993mb low east of Long Island this morning with high pressure centered over the Gulf States. The low will continue to lift NNE today while the surface high builds in from the WSW. Skies have cleared and should be mostly sunny today. Good CAA continues in the wake of the low and cold front. Low level thickness values support highs several degrees below normal, in the mid to upper 50s. Gusty west winds continue along the coast this morning, but will diminish during the afternoon.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday As of 235 AM Fri, High pressure will build over the area tonight, allowing for excellent radiational cooling conditions to set up with mostly clear skies and light winds. A light freeze could be possible for inland sheltered locations, but not enough confidence at this point to go with a Freeze Warning. Added mention of frost for inland locations with temps dropping into the low 30s. Overnight lows in the low to mid 30s inland and low to mid 40s along the beaches.

Long Term

Saturday through Thursday As of 230 am Fri, High pressure over the southern Appalachians Saturday will slowly weaken and dissipate by Saturday night. A weak coastal trof will develop Sunday night then move off to the east Monday. Have the best chances of rain after midnight Sunday through early Monday morning. Dry weather expected for the remainder of the period as a surface ridge builds into the region from the northwest.

Temps Saturday into Sunday near climo reaching into the 60-65 range. Low temps will dip to the mid/upper 30s inland, and low to mid 40s along the coast (except OBX which will remain in upper 40s). High temperatures Monday through Thursday will dip down to a bit below climo, with readings in the mid/upper 50s, and lows in the 30s interior to 40s coast.

Aviation

17z Friday through Tuesday Through 18z Saturday As of 1219 PM Fri, No change to the previous forecast. Pred VFR expected through the period with mainly clear skies. W/NW winds around 10 kt today becoming light and variable after nightfall.

Saturday through Tuesday As of 230 am Fri, VFR conditions are expected through the long term as high pressure builds into the region.

Marine

Through tonight As of 930 AM Fri, Will allow the SCA for the Sounds to expire as forecast at 10 AM. Winds have diminished to 15-20 over the Albemarle Sound but are still gusting to 25 kt over the Pamlico Sound. All of the models, including the high resolution models, indicate that winds will diminish around 15Z so will not extend current SCA there. Low water levels over the western Pamlico/Neuse Rivers have risen above critical levels so will let the LWA expire at 15Z. Over the nearshore waters, westerly flow 20-25 kt was observed with seas 5-9 ft. Winds are forecast to gradually diminish to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon with seas subsiding to 4-7 ft. Caa continues overnight with NW winds 10-20 kt, but expect seas to subside below 6 ft by early Sat morning.

Saturday through Tuesday As of 230 am Fri, Winds will become the N/NE 5-15 kts Saturday and Sunday, and then a coastal trough develops Monday, and causes winds to turn to the NW at 10-15 kts behind it. Seas will then become mostly 2-4 ft in the long range.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 4 am EST Saturday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 4 pm EST this afternoon for amz158. Small craft advisory until 7 pm EST this evening for amz156. Small craft advisory until 1 am EST Saturday for amz150.

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