Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

921 am EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Synopsis

Low pressure and its associated cold front will impact the area late tonight into early Saturday morning. High pressure then builds in behind the front for the second half of the weekend. Fast moving low pressure may bring rain for Monday before high pressure builds back in through mid week.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 920 AM Friday, Low clouds and fog lingering inland but shld grad dissipate thru late morn. Adjusted init temps down a bit inland and up a bit coast. No other changes with patchy light shra drifting onshore currently with bit better cvrg spreading in from SW later today, bulk of rain will hold off til late tonight.

Prev disc, Patchy showers impacting mostly coastal and far southern portions of the CWA at daybreak. Clouds continue to increase across the region early this morning as precipitable water surges to over an inch by later today. Will continue with a small PoP during the early morning hours. Pops increase to chance this afternoon as precipitation moves into the CWA from the west with cold front. Showers will be scattered late in the day as the bulk of the precipitation arrives after dark tonight. Strong WAA will lead to a very mild day with highs in the mid 60s in most areas, except lower 60s on the Outer Banks. Some lower clouds and patches of fog will be possible, especially early this morning.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday As of 355 AM Friday, Good agreement amongst the short-range and high-resolution models showing line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms late tonight into early Saturday morning. Some moderate CAPE values are possible along the immediate coast in the vicinity of the front toward morning. Any thunderstorms that do form could be locally strong to severe, but the best instability and support for storms will remain just offshore. With deep moisture and precipitable water values around 1.25", will forecast categorical PoPs toward morning, with one-third to one-half inch of rain possible as the system passes. Gusty winds ahead of the front will hold minimum temperatures up in the low to mid 50s area-wide, with temperatures generally holding steady after a low around midnight.

Long Term

Saturday through Thursday As of 3 AM Fri, A strong cold front moves through the area Saturday morning, bringing a return to seasonably cool weather Sunday through the mid week period. Fast moving low pressure may bring some rain to the area on Monday before dry high pres builds through mid week.

Saturday, A cold front associated with stacked low pressure lifting from the Ohio Valley towards the Northeastern states will cross early Saturday morning. Strong prefrontal southerly LLJ (40+ kts) and WAA as a wave of low pressure developing within the front will lift across central NC toward the Mid- Atlantic coast. This low will provide kinematics necessary for some robust convection, if enough instability can be advected off the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Sfc flow will be SSE, so best chance of seeing a strong to marginally severe storm still appears to be Downeast Carteret through the srn OBX zones. Strong wind gusts are the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the slightly backed sfc flow providing some enhanced helicity. Areas further north and west should be stable enough to preclude thunderstorms, but some heavier embedded showers could still produce gusty winds. Dry and warm for Saturday following early morning showers with 60s for high temps.

Sunday, Deep layer subsidence will keep a dry forecast in place into mid week. High pressure building in from the southwest will generally be mild with quasi-zonal flow in place, and near normal temps expected with highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s.

Monday, 24/00Z global model suite now indicating a fast moving low pressure area embedded in a progressive shortwave may bring some -RA to the area, and have introduced rain chances for Mon. Qpf amts look to be light, generally around a tenth of an inch or less. Because of the rain and clouds, knocked temps down a couple of degrees, mainly in the low 50s.

Tuesday through Thursday, A tricky fcst this period as flow will continue to be progressive with quasi zonal flow in place. Models and their respective ensembles hint at energy moving through the main flow which may spur cyclogenesis over the SE CONUS, but detailing when/if this will happen is difficult in this flow regime, and will only retain 20-30% pops this period. Temps will continue near climo, with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

Aviation

14z Friday through Tuesday Through 12z Saturday As of 920 PM Friday, IFR/LIFR slow to lift inland but shld grad improve thru 18Z.

Prev disc, Mixed bag in aviation this morning with LIFR inland at KPGV and KISO at daybreak. Any LIFR ceilings should improve to VFR in the next couple of hours, before returning to MVFR/IFR by evening and through the overnight hours as precipitation moves in associated with cold front crossing the area.

Saturday through Tuesday As of 3 AM Fri, Return to VFR by 12-15Z Saturday behind the cold front, with VFR likely lasting through mid week with high pressure in control. There may be some sub VFR on Monday if light rain and clouds move into the area, but then VFR returns Monday night and through mid week.

Marine

Today and tonight As of 920 PM Friday, No changes with SE winds grad developing all wtrs today. E swell will keep seas elevated in 5 to 7 foot range today.

Prev disc, Winds continue NE/E at 10-15 knots at daybreak with gusts to 19 knots at Diamond Buoy and 30 miles southeast of New River Inlet. Seas are holding in the 5-7 foot range. Winds will gradually veer to ESE/SE later today and more S/SW tonight and increase to 15-25 knots, with some higher gusts, particularly over the central waters. Seas will build to as high as 9-10 feet over central and northern zones later tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all coastal waters with no major changes to the current marine forecast.

Saturday through Tuesday As of 3 AM Fri, Srly winds 20-30 kt continue early Sat for the ctrl/srn waters, then turn swrly and diminish during the day 5-15 kt with seas slowly subsiding, dropping below 6 ft by later Sat night into Sun morning. Generally good boating conditions return Sunday through mid week as 5-15 kt winds continue with seas no higher than 3-5 ft.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 am EST Sunday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 5 am EST Sunday for amz150-156-158.

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