Key MESSAGE 1, A frontal boundary is currently stalled across the southern most section of the FA early this morning with isolated to widely scattered overrunning showers across the region. Guidance lifts the front back to just north and west of the area later this morning into the early afternoon hours with southerly flow and warmer temperatures returning. A moist and unstable airmass will remain in place with PWATS around 1.7" and SBCAPE peaking around 800-1200 J/Kg this afternoon. Limited forcing during peak heating with the front north/west of the area will keep shower and thunderstorm chances limited around 20-40%. Very little shear, 0-6km bulk shear around 10 kt or less, with poor mid level lapse rates will keep the severe thunderstorm chances to a minimum, but a few stronger storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and wind gusts to around 40 mph. With ENC back in the warm sector this afternoon, temps will be several degrees warmer today with highs in the mid 80s inland to upper upper 70s to lower 80s.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A subtropical ridge and Bermuda high pressure will remain centered off the SE coast through much of next week bringing moist SWly flow and conditionally unstable conditions across the region. A series of shortwave troughs will lift across the western periphery of the ridge bringing periods increased forcing and chances for showers and thunderstorms, with greatest chances generally during peak heating in the afternoon and early evening hours with additional forcing along the sea breeze. Pw values will be around 1.75-2" through the through the period which may lead to locally heavy rainfall at times. Guidance is suggesting that we would see 2-3 inches of rain over the next 5 days or so with a few showing around 4 inches, which will be helpful to curb the drought conditions, but we are 7-10 inches below normal for the year so it will take significantly more rainfall to alleviate the drought. The severe potential looks limited throughout the week with weak mid level lapse and lack of shear in place. Temps will be seasonably warm with highs in the mid 80s most days with humid conditions with dew point temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. It is not until late next week or next weekend that we could see a pattern break with a northern stream trough digging into the eastern CONUS bringing drier and cooler conditions, through guidance is not in best agreement with the timing of the pattern shift.
06z Saturday through Wednesday A front is stalled across far southern rtes early this morning with abundant low level moisture below the frontal inversion bringing widespread LIFR conditions across most rtes, though mainly seeing MVFR along the immediate coast. The front will lift back north later this morning into early afternoon hours with cigs gradually lifting to MVFR by mid morning with pred VFR expected by early afternoon, although isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across rtes this afternoon bringing occasional sub-VFR periods. Sub-VFR conditions expected to return late tonight with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms possible as a weak shortwave brings increased forcing across rtes. Wind will be light NE early today, becoming S to SE later today behind the warm front lifting north and west of the area.
Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): Chances for sub-VFR conditions and shra with ocnl thunder will persist each day into midweek next week as an active sea breeze will persist each day under a warm, moist airmass. Winds will be light, generally in the 5-15 kt range.
A frontal boundary draped across far southern coastal waters early this morning, will lift back north as a warm front later this morning into the early afternoon. Currently seeing NE winds less than 15 kt, but will become S to SE around 10-15 kt once the front lifts north. Seas are currently around 4-6 ft with a prolonged easterly fetch off the mid-Atlantic coast, highest north of Cape Hatteras. Wave guidance initialized too low with the waves and adjusted up a foot or two to align with reports. Have issued a SCA for the nearshore coastal waters north of Ocracoke Inlet through Sunday night. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across our coastal waters along a stalled boundary bringing a low end threat for locally enhanced winds and seas as well as a low end waterspout threat today.
Outlook: A more summer like pattern resumes across our waters as the area remains under the influence of the Bermuda high. This will bring 5-15 kt S'rly winds and 3-5 ft seas to our waters as well as chances for showers and thunderstorms to the waters into mid-week.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 10 pm EDT Sunday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 6 am EDT Monday for amz152. Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 am EDT Monday for amz154.
