Key MESSAGE 1, NWly mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal tonight into Wed as weaker but quick-moving shortwave transits the Great Lakes. At the surface, cooler high pressure centered over the lower MS River Valley will continue to build eastward tonight. Increasing clouds this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds eastward and weak shortwave pivots through the Carolinas. Cool overnight, lows mainly in the 30s, with some locations likely seeing a non-diurnal temp curve, rising toward sunrise.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The next rainmaker for our area arrives Thursday into Friday as cold front approaches from the west, driven by a shortwave diving out of the northern Rockies. Precipitation will be all liquid with temps well into the 60s, with some limited thunder potential confined to near the Gulf Stream. There is still a healthy amount of spread on forecast rain amounts with the Euro ensemble sitting on the wetter side of the envelope and the Canadian ensembles making up the dry side. The forecast trend overall has been shifting towards modestly higher amounts, with the odds of at least a quarter inch now up to 70-80% and half an inch at around 50%. Still think these might be a bit generous given the consistent under- performance of precipitation as of late with ongoing drought conditions, but at least measurable rainfall is likely and maintained categorical PoPs.
00z Wednesday through Sunday VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the TAF period with increasing mid and high clouds. Strengthening low level jet will bring LLWS concerns late tonight across western terminals (incl. Pgv and ISO) until daytime mixing ensues, at which time SW wind gusts to around 20-25 kt through the remainder of the TAF period.
Outlook: LLWS may be a concern again Wednesday night with a strengthening low level jet above the nocturnal inversion. Gusty southerly winds are expected again on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front will bring an increased risk of SHRA and sub-VFR conditions Wednesday night through the rest of the week. Additionally, a northerly wind shift can be expected along the front as it moves through on Friday.
Have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the central waters as seas have subsided below 6 ft but continue the Gale Warning south of Oregon Inlet Wednesday as winds will be ramping back up late tonight and Wednesday.
Latest obs show W-SW winds 5-15 kt while seas have subsided to 3-5 ft north of Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south. High pressure will continue to build over the SE, gradually sliding offshore late Wed. Gusty winds will develop late tonight and Wed, as gradient tightens between low pressure moving through the Great Lakes the attendant cold front and high pressure to the south. Issued Gale Warning Wed for the outer central and southern waters with potential for several hours of gusts to 35 kt, along with SCAs for the northern waters and Pamlico Sound.
Outlook: Poor boating conditions likely to persist for offshore waters into Friday before the front crosses the region. The front moves through Thursday night and Friday, with winds becoming NE 10-20 kt late Fri into the weekend.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm EST Wednesday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 10 pm EST Wednesday for amz150. Gale warning from 9 am to 7 pm EST Wednesday for amz152-154- 156-158.
