Key MESSAGE 1, The advertised heat and humidity will build into ENC from the north and west Friday into the weekend. High impact heat and humidity is expected, as the peak of it will be during the busy 4th of July holiday weekend (Saturday through Monday) with highs expected to reach well into the 90s inland, possibly reaching 100 in some locales, with upper 80s to mid 90s beaches. The combination of the heat and humidity will push heat indices towards the 105-110 degree range or slightly higher this weekend. Overnight lows will also be warm due to the increased TD's, with lows around 80 near the coast, and mid 70s interior.
NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values peak Saturday into Monday in the major range with some extreme risk areas inland. The chance for extreme heat risk has come down a bit on Saturday through Monday with probabilities peaking around 40-60% across northern sections and 20-40% south with the compounding days and little relief during the nighttime periods. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside this weekend into early next week should monitor the forecast trends.
With the ridge of high pressure building in, a cap will develop with little to no shower or thunderstorm relief through Saturday. On Sunday, the ridge may break down just enough for some scattered storms to develop mainly inland zones, but the latest guidance has decreased rain chances to 25% or less. Better precip chances expected Monday into Tuesday as a series of shortwaves impact the area.
06z Wednesday through Sunday Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Could see shallow ground fog develop in some locations during the pre-dawn hours but it should have little impact to operations and dissipate quickly after sunrise. Few-sct cumulus develops this afternoon with daytime heating with SE winds generally around 5-10 kt.
Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Dry weather is expected to prevail with pred VFR conditions, but could see patchy fog and low stratus each morning. Winds will be light through the period with high pres in vicinity.
Latest obs show SE-E winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Winds will continue to veer a bit to SE to S less than 15 kt today into tonight as high pressure builds in and weak low pressure dissipates off the SE coast. Have cancelled the SCA for central waters as seas have subsided.
Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): The Bermuda high becomes dominant mid to late week with light winds 5-15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
