Key MESSAGE 1, Cold front has pushed S of the FA leading to a Nerly flow CAA regime through the bulk of the day today as SFC high pressure builds across TN and eventually ENC. This will result in a mild, dry day to end the work-week with MaxTs in the low 70s (60s OBX). The high shifts offshore this evening with seasonably cool overnight lows continuing in the 50s.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Guidance continues to trend slightly drier for the weekend, as several low amplitude and weakly sheared shortwaves sweep across the Mid Atlantic. Gom is cutoff from moisture with low pressure aloft currently over Sern AZ/NM eroding as it travels Eward across TX tonight, and thus precip looks to be much more spotty in nature. Continue downward trend in PoPs currently peaking around 40ish%. Low level moisture transport about the high pressure offshore and the afternoon seabreeze may get enough help aloft from the s/w discussed above to lead to weak isolated to scattered showers across the mainland with heavier showers and greater tstorm chances over coastal and offshore waters.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Decent agreement on next stronger shortwave and attendant cold front moving through the region on Monday. This system will have decently strong dynamics with fairly sharp troughing aloft pivoting over ECONUS to become more negatively tilted and potentially steeper lapse rates. Depending on diurnal timing, a severe thunderstorm threat is possible with this system, with the main threats appearing to be severe wind gusts and large hail, along with heavy downpours. Still outside of HiRes guidance resolution window, but global guidance suggest another half inch of rain or so is possible with this FROPA.
KEY MESSAGE 4, Stacked low cutting across the Sern extent of the Great Lakes and high pressure offshore brings warm and moist air across the Carolinas ahead of the next front set to cross the area midweek. Will need to watch this system for severe potential as well.
09z Friday through Tuesday The primary aviation challenge overnight will be the potential for IFR conditions and whether or not BR/FG can develop. Presently, a mid-level cloud layer continues to reside over much of ENC. Mid- level drying is expected to commence soon, which should lead to an erosion of the mid-level clouds. This will probably allow for some breaks in the clouds, which then favors low stratus/fog development thanks to a residually moist low- level airmass and light winds. We're already seeing evidence of this upstream across central NC. Through the overnight hours, I hit the IFR potential a bit harder, but used TEMPOs to message when the greatest risk appears to be. Stay tuned for amendments through the night.
VFR conditions should quickly return during the day Friday as high pressure moves overhead. The presence of the high will be short- lived as it quickly moves offshore by Friday night. Light southerly flow and weak lift may support low stratus or BR/FG development once again.
Outlook: On Saturday, a warm front is forecast to lift north through the area in the morning, and may be accompanied by isolated SHRA and TSRA. In the wake of this warm front, weak to modest instability and increasing moisture may allow for a continued risk of isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA through the weekend. A greater TSRA risk may develop with a frontal boundary on Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any SHRA or TSRA.
The cold front has pushed S of the FA with high pressure building in from the W. Nerly winds slowly diminish through the morning becoming 10kt or less around midday. Winds become SEerly with the seabreeze circulation getting going in conjunction with the SFC high pushing off the coast in the evening.
Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): The improvement will be short lived as SWerly winds approach, but expected to remain under SCA criteria SAT. Weak shortwaves aloft may lead to showers and storms, particularly over Gulf Stream waters. Winds and seas diminish on Sunday, with next fropa expected Monday with SCA conditions possible once again with this front.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
