Key MESSAGE 1, Low pressure well offshore will continue to push N-E away from coast overnight. Trended towards the cooler temp guidance overnight with strong radiational cooling conditions expected, with lows generally 55-60 deg.
Friday into the weekend, low offshore is forecast to push further out to sea with high pressure becoming anchored off the coast. This will bring steady S-SW'rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses, and warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the low to mid 90s inland and 80s along the coast and OBX Fri, Sat, and Sun bringing a return to more summer like temps. Lows only get down into the 60s/70s each night not providing much relief from the heat each day. While we will stay below heat headline criteria, the culmination of hot temps in the day and warm temps at night are forecast to lead to an elevated risk of seeing moderate HeatRisk impacts which would affect those sensitive to heat and those without proper cooling or hydration.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Guidance is coming into better agreement that a cold front will track across ENC Sunday night into Monday. This front would bring our next best chance at some precipitation to ENC Sun evening into Mon/Tue. Depending on the exact timing of the front there would be an attendant thunderstorm risk as well, though latest guidance does suggest with a nocturnal frontal passage the thunderstorm threat would be minimal. Either way we are monitoring trends in the fronts timing in case the thunderstorm risk increases. Winds look to become NE'rly behind this front and with low level thicknesses also lowering, this will result in temps lowering towards the middle of next week closer to seasonal norms.
00z Friday through Tuesday VFR flight cats overnight. The afternoon seabreeze has pushed through the Inner Banks and is currently approaching inland TAF sites, winds shifting SEerly behind it, lasting through the evening. Winds become light and variable to calm as high pressure moves overhead and gradually shifts offshore. 00z sounding shows moisture starved atmosphere through the lower levels and with no recent rainfall, not expecting any fog formation despite the SKC, calm winds, and temps cooling below normal again through the overnight. Vfr continues FRI under SKC with light W-SWerly breeze developing by midmorning becoming more Serly behind the afternoon seabreeze.
Outlook: High pressure will remain centered offshore this weekend before pushing out to sea ahead of an approaching cold front. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the weekend with high pressure in control. As we get into early next week a chance at some sub-VFR conditions is noted as showers and tstms associated with an incoming cold front could bring some reduced vis/ceilings to ENC Sun night and Mon.
Latest obs show N-NE winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-5 ft (highest across the central waters). Sca continues for one more hour over the central waters with lingering 6 ft seas over outer portions of these zones. Low pressure will continue to slowly pull away from the coast tonight as high pressure builds in from the W. Winds will continue to veer and grad diminish tonight, becoming variable less than 10 kt with seas 2-5 ft. Light and variable winds to start Fri, becoming S 5-15 kt in the afternoon with 2-4 ft seas.
Outlook: A more typical warm-season pattern persists through the weekend with south to southwesterly flow and localized surges in the late afternoon and evening associated with thermal gradients. A frontal passage early next week will bring the next wind shift and threat for showers and thunderstorms to our waters.
Nc, beach hazards statement through Friday evening for ncz196-204- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz152- 154.
