Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1011 pm EDT Sun aug 1 2021

Synopsis

An area of low pressure will move northeast pushing a weak front into the region overnight. This boundary will more or less remain stalled over the area through the rest of the week as several waves of low pressure develop along it.

Near Term

Until 6 am Monday morning As of 1005 PM Sunday, Most all of the precipitation has moved offshore at late evening, but some additional showers and tstms are impacting areas around Wilmington. All Severe Watches have been dropped in our area, but showers and a few thunderstorms are still possible overnight and will keep PoPs in until around or shortly after midnight, with PoPs then trending down from west to east. Rain-cooled air will lead to cooler low temperatures in the upper 60s far north to low to mid 70s coastal zones.

Short Term

6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday As of 255 PM Sunday, Quasi-stationary front will be off the coast Monday, with light N to NE low level flow prevailing across the area. Caa remains weak, so modest low level moisture remains in place on the north side of the front, but upper subsidence will limit storm chances. Scattered showers expected and poss a cpl storms along the sea breeze early afternoon, with limited inland activity during the day.

Long Term

Monday night through Sunday As of 330 AM Sun, Deep moisture arrives Monday night, bringing a very active period and heavy rainfall threat that will last at least through late in the week.

Monday night, upper troughing digging across the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians prompts deep layer moisture advection locally, signaling the beginning of a very wet several days. Scattered to widespread showers develop overnight, with a few thunderstorms possible, though instability is limited. Pwat values of 2+ inches arrive late Monday night, but the flooding threat will remain limited through the night.

Tuesday through Thursday, A very wet three days are on tap for the middle of the week. The unseasonably strong trough over the southern Appalachians remains in place (potentially cutting a low off at its base), ensuring that a deep tropical moisture belt remains over the area. Pwat values of 2-2.5 inches prevail through the period. At the surface, the boundary will generally remain along the coast, with several weak waves riding along it about every 18 to 24 hours, leading to periods of increased rainfall coverage and intensity. The heaviest rainfall is currently expected to fall along and east of the boundary, with 3 day QPF in the neighborhood of 6-8 inches along and south of US Hwy 17, with several inches still expected further inland. Given that much of the area has received around-to-well-above normal precip over the past couple of weeks, there will be a significant flash flooding threat that will require close monitoring midweek. Persistent cloud cover and rainfall will moderate temps through the period, and instability will accordingly be limited, with any severe threat currently seeming secondary to the heavy rainfall threat.

Friday and Saturday, A bit less confidence in the forecast toward the end of the week, but the strong upper troughing and potential cutoff low to our west looks to persist, with the surface low still in the area spelling continued unsettled weather through the end of the forecast period. Looking beyond the forecast period, the wet period could continue into early next week.

Aviation

02z Monday through Friday Through 00z Tuesday As of 720 PM Sunday, Will maintain VCTS at the TAF sites for another hour or so as the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms are moving east of the TAF sites. With a wet ground and diminishing wind overnight, some confidence in some fog and stratus toward morning and continue to indicate a short period of MVFR for now. Any lower ceilings/vsbys should improve quickly by mid-morning with VFR conditions expected through the day Monday. Widely scattered showers and storms are possible along the sea breeze, but nowhere near as widespread as today.

Monday night through Thursday As of 330 AM Sun, Beginning Monday night, an extended period of very active weather begins, with ample low level moisture and periods of heavy rainfall bringing the expectation of prolonged visibility and ceiling restrictions at all terminals, with the greatest confidence closer to the coast (EWN and OAJ).

Marine

Through Mon As of 1010 PM Sunday, Winds are mostly S/SW across all waters at 15 knots or less with seas 2-4 feet. Given observations and forecast trends, have dropped all SCA's in our area. Winds will likely veer a bit to West overnight. On Monday, with weak front to the S, expect NW to N winds to gradually become more NE at 5 to 15 kts. Seas continue at 2 to 4 ft Mon.

Monday night through Thursday As of 330 AM Sun, A quasi-stationary front will remain over or near the coastal waters through the long term period. Moderate NE winds are generally expected to prevail for the inshore waters and any coastal waters north/west of the front, but moderate to at times breezy SW winds can be expected south of the front, which generally includes the coastal waters near and south of Cape Hatteras beyond about 5 NM offshore. Scas are most likely for these southern coastal waters beginning mid-week, but timing remains uncertain at this point. Seas will vary in accordance with winds, but 3-5 ft seas generally prevail, with 6 ft seas possible in mainly SW windswell if the front meanders onshore or the gradient tightens as a wave is moving along the coast midweek.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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