Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

920 am EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Synopsis

A trough of low pressure will stall and dissipate near the southern sections today. High pressure will extend into the area from the northwest Friday through the weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to track between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 920 AM Thursday, No changes planned with sct convection expected mainly this aftn over SW tier.

Prev disc, Patchy fog continues and is mainly on the light side. The exception is across the northern Outer Banks and mainland Dare counties, where VSBYS have dropped below 1 mile at times. A rogue thunderstorm north of Greenville quickly showed a good core aloft about 30 minutes ago with hail likely, but is now in the process of falling apart. Aside from an isolated storm near here, most of this morning will be dry. Toward 18Z hi resolution guidance matches up well with our previous forecast of scattered thunderstorms re-developing. This will be most likely along the sea breeze and especially near or on a line from Morehead City to New Bern to Greenville, south and west. Spc keeps our area in general thunder and see no reason to expect more than garden variety thunderstorms through late today. Highs will once again be above average with upper 80s inland, about 6 degrees warmer than typical late September highs. It will be cooler near the beaches. This will be most pronounced over the Outer Banks with a cooler northeast wind holding temps in the lower 80s.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday As of 3 AM Thursday, Any thunderstorms early this evening should die down rather quickly. I did leave a slight chance mention in through midnight over the far southwest based on what happened last night, and continued good model agreement that an isolated storm may persist in the areas just mentioned. With lows dropping back into the 60s again, patchy fog will be possible especially in areas that see rain later today.

Long Term

Friday through Wednesday As of 3 am Thu, High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will extend down across the region through the period, while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track of Maria. Eastern NC residents and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC.

Friday through Saturday night, Surface high pressure and upper ridge will continue to build in from the north through the weekend, as Jose gradually weakens and meanders off the NE and Mid-Atlantic coast. Pred dry weather expected. Low level thickness values support temps near to slightly above normal through the period with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Sunday through Wednesday, Hurricane Maria is currently forecast to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week. Eventual track will be determined by several factors including the strength of the upper ridge and circulation of Jose. It is still too soon to determine specific impacts for Eastern NC, which will be very dependent on the track/how close to the coast it gets. Regardless of the exact track, rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely this weekend into next week, as large long period southeast swells build. Gusty N/NW winds, minor coastal flooding, and ocean overwash/erosion will be also possible.

Have introduced rain chances into the forecast beginning along the Outer Banks and adjacent coastal waters Sunday. Then, slight chance to chance PoPs gradually spread into the forecast area from the east Sunday night through early next week as Maria passes by off the coast. Rain chances then decrease Tuesday night into Wednesday as the system moves away.

Eastern NC residents and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC on Hurricane Maria.

Aviation

13z Thursday through Monday Through 00z Friday As of 920 AM Thursday, Mainly VFR through early evening. Scattered thunderstorms possible all terminals between 18Z and 22Z. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in heavier showers. After 09Z tonight fog is possible once again, especially where we see rain today. For now went with a MVFR forecast but IFR is a possibility again especially if we see some rain today.

Thursday night through Monday As of 3 am Thu, VFR conditions will dominate most of the period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across the region.

Marine

Through Thu As of 920 AM Thursday, Delayed return of 6 foot seas a bit however with guidance showing them back outer central waters by evening will maintain current SCA.

Prev disc, Seas running 4 to 5 feet and the small craft advisory has been allowed to expire north of Oregon Inlet as planned. Marginal seas with near small craft conditions continue through this afternoon across the central waters from Oregon Inlet south to Ocracoke Inlet. Could see a few hours of below small craft conditions later today but not a long enough period to change any headlines, before seas builds again toward 6-7 feet after midnight tonight. Winds north to northeast 5 to 10 knots through the period.

Fri through Mon As of 3 am Thu, High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build down into the region through the period, while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and next week. Mariners and interested parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC.

N/NE winds 5-10 kt Fri increasing to 5-15 kt Sat and 10-20 kt Sun and Mon. Nwps and Wavewatch in good agreement with elevated seas lingering across the central waters through the entire period. Will likely start seeing long period southeast swell build from distant Hurricane Maria Fri into early next week across all the waters. Small craft seas likely to redevelop by Fri evening in the waters south of Ocracoke and continue into next week, with double digit seas by Sunday and Monday. Too soon to determine specific impacts from Maria, but dangerous seas expected and strong N/NW winds will be possible. Large SE swells expected to build, Wavewatch currently showing swells 15-20 ft/15 seconds. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz095- 103-104. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Monday for amz152-154.

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