A cold front will pass through the area early this morning, bringing chances of rain to ENC today. Much cooler conditions return for early this coming week following the front. A low pressure system will then move through the Mid-Atlantic region mid to late this coming week.
Through today As of 215 AM Sunday,
Key Messages,
- Showers expected to push NW to SE through early afternoon as a cold front pushes across ENC
- Early morning highs (60s) with temps falling through the day (50s) behind the front thanks to strong cold air advection
Breezy southwesterly winds have kept WAA in place overnight tonight, with temperatures remaining in the mid-60s across ENC. A cold front currently analyzed passing through the Greensboro/Winston-Salem area will continue to push eastward across ENC, eventually entering the northwestern portion of the forecast area a couple of hours prior to dawn. Forcing for ascent from the approaching front coupled with jet streak dynamics aloft is expected to yield an increase in coverage of rain showers as the front approaches ENC this morning. This shower activity will gradually push eastward along with the front, eventually clearing offshore by mid to late afternoon today. Rainfall on the order of a couple tenths of an inch is expected, with locally higher amounts up to half an inch possible, especially across the northern portions of the forecast area. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder along portions of the Outer Banks or Gulf Stream where meager instability will be present, but limited CAPE values (generally less than 100 J/kg) will prevent more widespread thunderstorm activity. Sharp veering of winds to northwesterly behind the cold front will bring CAA, with temperatures falling from morning highs in the the 60s into the low-to-mid 50s by the afternoon/evening. Winds will remain breezy behind the front, with gusts up to 35 mph possible behind the front this afternoon (gusts 35-45 mph possible along the OBX later this evening).
Tonight As of 230 AM Sunday,
Key Messages,
- Cold air advection behind today's frontal passage will bring low temperatures in the upper-20s tonight
Skies will clear late this afternoon and into the evening as the front and associated precipitation slide offshore. Winds will gradually slacken through the overnight hours tonight as high pressure begins to build into the area, but CAA through today and into the overnight will bring falling temperatures, with lows expected in the upper-20s (low-30s Outer Banks).
Monday through Saturday As of 230 AM Sunday,
Key Messages
- Return to cooler temperatures early this coming week with dry conditions
- Low pressure system mid to late this coming week will bring the next chance of rain, with some potential (10-30%) for a wintry mix or light snow as it moves offshore
Early this coming week, High pressure builds back into the area behind today's cold frontal passage, bringing the return of cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Highs around 50 for Monday rise to the upper-50s Tuesday/Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the upper-20s Monday night. Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of the next frontal system Tuesday night, which will bring more moderate lows in the upper-30s.
Mid-to-late this coming week, The next front is forecast to push offshore, with the potential for multiple weak lows/waves of low pressure to travel along this front mid-week, which may bring the next chances of rain to ENC. There is a building signal that a stronger low pressure system will then move across the region Thursday or Friday bringing additional chances for precipitation. Guidance continues to struggle with the strength, timing, and location of the system, but there is potential (10-30%) for a changeover to a wintry mix or snow as the system pulls away from the coast, but it is still too early for any discussion on impacts or accumulation potential.
06z Sunday through Thursday As of 1 AM Sunday,
Key Messages
- Brief period of LLWS early this morning
- Another round of low stratus this morning
Primarily VFR ceilings and visibility are noted across much of ENC, except for some low stratus along NOBX. Cold front with scattered showers currently well to the west of ENC will sweep E'wards and track across the area through the morning hours on Sun. This is forecast to bring a period of MVFR ceilings 1.5-3 kft starting from W-E after 9Z. Mvfr ceilings should quickly progress E'wards and eventually push offshore by late morning Sun as the front pushes offshore. Occasional drops to IFR are possible in heavier showers along the cold front. Once the area goes VFR conditions will remain VFR through the rest of the period Sun into Sunday night. Sw wind gusts 15-25 kt through tonight, becoming NW gusting 20-30 kt Sunday. This could lead to crosswind issues on ISO and EWN runways Sun. Winds will decrease to 5-10 knots Sunday night with the loss of daytime mixing. We could also see a brief period of LLWS ahead of the cold front 6-10Z this morning given the very strong winds aloft and have included this at all TAF sites. Generally expect LLWS values of 40-45kt at 1 kft during this timeframe before concerns ease after 10-11Z.
Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through much of the period with high pressure in control. While there is still a lot of uncertainty, a low pressure system Thursday could bring precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.
As of 3 AM Sunday,
Key Messages,
- Gale Force winds expected over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet through this morning as SW winds increase ahead of a cold front
- A second round of Gale conditions will develop Sunday afternoon as NW winds surge behind a secondary cold front. These Gales will be more widespread, covering all the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound at least
Southwesterly winds have continued to pick up as the gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front, with gusts noted up to around 35 kts at Diamond Shoals and over the Gulf Stream waters. Gale Force gusts are expected to continue over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet through this morning. The cold front will then cross through ENC this morning, passing offshore around noon today. Winds will quickly veer to northwesterly behind the front. High-res guidance shows a brief dip in wind speeds and gusts to sub-SCA across the sounds/rivers and to sub-Gale across the coastal waters early this afternoon, but a northwesterly surge behind a secondary cold front will bring a rapid increase in winds/gusts beginning mid-afternoon today. These winds will be the strongest of the day, with gusts to 40-45 kts expected across the coastal waters and gusts to Gale Force expected across the Pamlico Sound. Currently have SCA's in effect for the remaining sounds and rivers, but some guidance depicts moderate chances (40-50%) for a brief period of Gales across the Ablemarle, Croatan, and Roanoke Sounds this evening. Will continue to monitor this potential for an expansion to the Gale Warnings.
In additional to elevated winds, showers and an isolated thunderstorm will accompany the frontal passage this morning through the early afternoon. Drier conditions then return later today, with winds gradually decreasing through Sunday night as high pressure builds into the region.
Current obs show seas 5-8 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 3-5 ft to the north. With the wind direction switching to offshore flow today, seas across the coastal waters will remain 5-8 ft through tonight, becoming 3-5 ft Monday.
Outlook: Marine conditions improve early week as high pressure builds over the region, with sub-SCA conditions expected to return Monday and last until mid week when another low pressure system will bring increased winds and seas.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 3 am EST Monday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory until 4 pm EST this afternoon for amz135- 150. Gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am EST Monday for amz135-150. Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am EST Monday for amz136-137. Gale warning until 1 am EST Monday for amz152-154-156. Gale warning until 1 am EST Monday for amz158.
