High pressure will remain in place across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of a dry cold front Thursday, stalling across or to the south of the area, through late week. A weak area of low pressure traveling along the boundary passes just south of ENC this weekend, with high pressure building back in by early next week.
Today As of 0215 Wednesday,
Key Messages
- Below normal temperatures continue
Low pressure will move SE across the Great Lakes during the day, then move east across New England tonight. An associated cold front will move across the Ohio Valley during the day, reaching Virginia/WNC by Wednesday night. Ahead of that front, the pressure gradient will tighten some, especially as troughing develops in the lee of the Appalachians. It appears that this will lead to a slight bump up in winds during the day and continuing into the night. Please see the FIRE WEATHER section below for additional information regarding the combined impact of the wind and a dry airmass.
The west to southwest flow across the Carolinas should give highs a bit of a boost up thanks to downslope warming effects. Maxt in upper 40s N, low 50s SWern zones.
New year's eve As of 0220 Wednesday,
Key Messages
- Increasing SWerly winds overnight -> warmer MinTs, around or just below Normal
Shortwave traveling through the cyclonic flow aloft centered over CAN will act to bump the developing SFC troughing through the area, backing winds to be more SWerly, cutting down on radiational cooling efficiency and keeping slight WAA regime in place leading to a warmer overnight. Mints around freezing inland, upper 30s to low 40s watery locales.
Thursday through Tuesday As of 0230 Tuesday,
Key Messages,
- Seasonable temps mid week through early next week
- Chance of rain appears to be decreasing for much of the area this weekend Thursday through Friday, A series of weak shortwaves will push through the area for the latter half of the work week bringing periods of mid and high clouds. But, deeper moisture will be lacking and therefor expect dry conditions to prevail with zonal flow. A dry front will approach the area from the N THU, with some guidance keeping it N of the FA in VA while select models continuing to push through at least some of the area during the evening, and stalling anywhere from the Albemarle Sound to south of Wilmington, with brief high pressure building in N of the boundary. Current forecast reflects the front making it to, but not completely through the FA. Biggest impact to forecast on whether or not the front makes it through will be winds and MinT Thurs, as no rain is expected regardless of FROPA or not.
Saturday, Guidance has slightly slowed on what was previously forecast to be a quicker moving shortwave and an associated surface low. The system is forecast to traverse LA/AL/GA through the day Saturday, not reaching the SECONUS coast until about sunset. With THU's front potentially not making it all the way through the FA, the track of the low that will follow the boundary has shifted back N, cutting across the FA almost directly over the Crystal Coast and Hatt. The greatest chance looks to be along, and just inland of, the Crystal Coast.
Sunday through Tuesday, Low exits the area with high pressure rebuilding into the region bringing a return to dry weather and mo clear skies. Sfc high almost directly overnight MON night, pushing offshore TUE. Temps will remain near climo with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
06z Wednesday through Sunday As of 145 AM Wednesday, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A weak system with limited moisture will push across the area tonight bringing increased high clouds but mid and lower levels will remain quite dry. Westerly winds will gust to around 15-20 kt late this morning and afternoon, then decrease to less than 10 kt and back to SW late this afternoon into the evening. A slight uptick in winds at the terminals expected late this evening and through the overnight as gradients tighten with the approaching system, however coastal sections will see stronger winds with gusts 20-30 kt. A strengthening LLJ to around 30-40 kt will bring marginal LLWS concerns across northern rtes tonight with the greatest concern at PGV.
Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the end of the work week. A low pressure area is forecast to pass just south of the area Saturday and Saturday night bringing a chance rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.
As of 0300 Wednesday,
Key Messages,
- Next round of SCAs issued for all coastal waters and PamSound after sunset tonight into THU morning. Scas for Nern sounds may have to be added.
- Low pressure exiting SECONUS coast late SAT impacts the area with strengthening winds and rain.
- High pressure returns late SUN into early next week.
Winds become more westerly, but will remain in the 15-20kt range. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, west to west- southwest winds are expected to build to 15- 25kt as a stronger pressure gradient associated with developing SFC troughing pushes E across area waters. During this time, a more widespread area of 25kt wind gusts appears likely. First cut at SCAs have been added, though day shift may expand the area covered by these hazards. Have opted to leave Croatan, Roanoke, and Albemarle sounds out of this round of hazard issuance as conditions are more marginal over these zones. Seas 3-5ft build back to 4-7 ft this evening into THU morning as winds build.
Thursday through Friday, Back door dry front moves approaches late Thur. Guidance now more spread on just how far S the front makes it before stalling. Current forecast now has the front stalling somewhere around Cape Hatt as opposed to last night's forcast which had the front stalling further S toward Cape Fear. Nerly wind surge bringing SCA conditions to waters N of the boundary through early Fri morning.
Weekend, Strengthening low pressure works Eward from SECONUS, pushing off the coast somewhere from GA to SC at or after sunset SAT night. With THU front stalling further N, the track of the Low, which will work Eward along the boundary, has shifted back N with latest batch of guidance. Expecting elevated winds and seas and rain across the central and southern waters. High pressure builds back late SUN, pushing offshore TUE.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to noon EST Thursday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 1 pm EST Thursday for amz150-156-158. Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 2 pm EST Thursday for amz152-154.
