Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

403 pm EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Synopsis

High pressure will build in quickly behind a departing cold front tonight, persisting through mid week. A strong coastal low is expected to impact the area this weekend.

Near Term

Until 6 am Wednesday morning As of 330 PM Tue, The primary band of precip behind an anafront/cold front that has passed offshore this afternoon will cross eastern NC through this evening. Strong post-frontal CAA is ongoing, and low level temp profiles below freezing will be moving in quickly behind the precip. A few areas of flurries or sleet cannot be ruled out, but the probability is too low to include in the official forecast, and accumulation is not expected. Additionally, several hours of mainly dry and breezy conditions are expected before freezing temps arrive, which is expected to be enough to dry out most ground moisture enough to preclude any significant black ice threat. Skies will clear from west to east overnight, and lows will dip well below freezing inland, with lows closer to the mid-30s near area waterways and the 40s along the beaches.

Along the coast, high pressure building in behind the cold front will bring windy conditions, with a wind advisory in effect for all of the OBX and Downeast Carteret County. Please see the Tides/Coastal Flooding section for more information on the minor coastal flood threat. Freeze Warning in effect for the remaining coastal counties outside the Outer Banks that have not yet had a hard freeze.

Short Term

6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday As 4 PM Tue, Gusty northerly winds continue, especially along the coast, Wednesday morning as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Wind chill values will be notably cold at sunrise, in the teens to lower 20s for most. Additionally, with a low level flow orientation parallel to the axis of the Chesapeake Bay, many hi-res models indicate the potential for some bay- effect precip for northeast NC early Wednesday morning into the afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the forecast. Overall, Wednesday will be characterized as an unseasonably cold (20-25 deg below normal) and dry day.

Long Term

Wednesday night through Tuesday As of 3 PM Tues, High pressure builds in Wednesday, then slides offshore Thursday followed with a low pressure system developing late in the week.

Thursday, High pressure slides offshore Thursday. As the high pressure moves offshore, an inverted trough developed late in the day Thursday leading to the increase threat of rain showers across our coastal counties. Temps moderate a bit Thursday as low- level thicknesses increases, expect highs upper 40s to low 50s inland and upper 50s along the coast.

Thursday night through Tuesday, Models are in better agreement than 24 hr ago with the evolution of a significant coastal storm developing off the Southeast coast. A complex weather pattern is evolving with a sharp northern stream shortwave trough digging into the Lower Miss/TN Valley and becomes in phase with a southern stream shortwave trough with a weak low. The result is a strong shortwave/closed low over the southeastern U.S. Late Friday into Saturday interacting with the stalled front/baroclinic zone, resulting in cyclogenesis off the northeast coast of Florida lifting northeast towards the Carolinas. There remains uncertainty with the models in regards to the placement and strength of the coastal low, but the confidence is increasing with the potential impacts Eastern NC will receive from this system. At this time, we can expect rainy and windy conditions, especially along the OBX with the potential for another round of coastal flooding for the southern half of the Pamlico Sound.

Afterward, the coastal low will gradually lift northeast, while another shortwave trough digs into the Gulf States developing another coastal low for early next week. Still too early say if this will transpire. Overall, temperatures gradually moderate through this period with highs in the 50s to 60s, except for Saturday as temps will be slightly lowers due to rainy, cloudy and windy conditions.

Aviation

20z Tuesday through Sunday Through Wednesday As of 1 PM Tuesday, Moisture overrunning an anafront will bring low ceilings and stratiform precip to the terminals this afternoon and evening. Mvfr to IFR ceilings prevail, while visibility restrictions will be confined to times of light-to- moderate rainfall. Vfr conditions ensue as drier post-frontal air fills in late this evening from northwest to southeast, prevailing through the end of the TAF period. Additionally, gusty northerly winds will develop early Wednesday, continuing through Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night through Saturday As of 315 AM Tue, VFR conditions continue through Thursday as high pressure dominates the region. A coastal low is forecasted to develop and impact the area late week; leading to sub-VFR conditions and low-level wind shear concerns.

Marine

Through tonight As of 4 PM Tue, Gales continue across most of the larger bodies of water into Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. Seas will respond, building to 8-12 feet overnight. Overall, hazardous winds and seas continue through most of Wednesday, with significant improvement not occurring until late in the day.

Wednesday through Saturday As of 315 AM Tue, Winds weaken to NE 10-15 knots by Thursday morning as high pressure builds into the area. Seas will remain elevated through Wednesday, and drop below 6 ft early Thursday morning.

The sfc high slides off the coast Thursday afternoon, allowing for winds to gradually veer E at 10-15 knots, then a coastal trough develops late Thursday. Winds will become northerly and slowly increase to Gale Force Friday night. Seas will build Friday night into Saturday with seas 13-15 feet with possible 16 ft along the outer coastal waters.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, freeze warning from 1 am to 8 am EST Wednesday for ncz081-094- 194>196-199. Wind advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ncz196-203>205. Coastal flood advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm EST Wednesday for ncz196-203>205. High surf advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm EST Wednesday for ncz203-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 1 pm EST Wednesday for amz136-137. Gale warning until 1 pm EST Wednesday for amz131-135-150-230- 231. Gale warning until 4 pm EST Wednesday for amz152-154-156-158.

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