Key MESSAGE 1, Near record temperatures are expected today thanks to warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This will equate to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with the only meaningful rainfall coming on Sunday, which only looks to be about 1/4" or less across the forecast area.
Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Strong SW winds ahead of this weekend's cold front quickly switching to strong N winds behind the front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Sunday, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There will be just enough low- level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, highest along the coast and offshore. However, rainfall amounts do not look impressive, with only about 1/4" or less of rain. While instability will likely be modest closer to the coast and offshore, deep layer shear of 30-50kt would be supportive of organized convection if deep updrafts can form. We'll continue to monitor this potential.
Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler and drier airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s to start the new week.
06z Saturday through Wednesday Little to no aviation concerns are expected until late Sunday morning when a cold front and scattered rain showers (and thunderstorms) move through the region.
VFR conditions are anticipated this morning and through the day with skies mostly clear, winds light out of the south. Increasing clouds are expected late tonight, but at first these will be mostly mid and high level clouds. Eventually, sub-VFR conditions will develop as the cold front crosses the region later Sunday.
Outlook: A cold front will move through ENC between Sunday with a chance of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR CIGs. A period of gusty winds is expected as well, especially along and behind the front. During this time, wind gusts as high as 20-25kt are expected. Lighter winds return by early next week as high pressure builds back into the area.
Winds are light and variable to SWerly at 5-10 kt. S/SW winds will increase to 10-20 kt by this afternoon. Seas will generally be 2-3 ft through today.
Sunday a strong cold front with scattered showers/thunderstorms will move through the region.
Ahead of the front Sunday morning, a tightened pressure gradient brings SW winds gusting to 15-30 knots, highest along the Gulf Stream waters. Through the day Sunday, the front moves through the region, with winds rapidly switching from SW to N behind it. The northerly post frontal winds will bring a quick hitting threat of wind gusts 25-35 knots with higher end of guidance suggesting wind gusts around 40 knots. Given the short duration of around gale force gusts with high confidence of at least Small Craft gusts, elected to issue a a small craft advisory for coastal waters out to 20 nm from Duck to Ocracoke Inlet and the Pamlico Sound. Gale force gusts are likely right behind the front for Coastal waters and inland sounds/rivers surrounding the Albemarle Sound, but with a lifespan of < 6 hours expected, this can be handled with a Marine Weather Statement of Special Marine Warning instead of any Gale headlines. Remainder of the waters not already mentioned are also capable of seeing small craft gusts, but lesser confidence and/or short duration prevents the issuance of a SCA at this time.
With the stronger winds, seas will also be quick to build Sunday. 3-4 ft early Sunday morning becomes 4-5 ft Sunday late morning with some 6 footers possible. Sunday afternoon, post frontal northerly winds kick in and seas build to 5-10 ft, highest along the Gulf Stream.
In addition to the elevated winds and seas, some scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this front. Highest confidence is along the warm Gulf Stream waters, where instability is the highest. Ample deep wind shear brings the the threat of well structured updrafts capable of producing strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Inland sounds/rivers will have less instability to play with, so probabilities of strong thunderstorms is less, but still not zero.
Outlook: Winds and seas quickly decrease Monday, but a back door cold front coming through Tuesday brings another round elevated northerly winds 15-25 knots. Another back door cold front approaches the Carolinas late-week bringing shifting winds and elevated winds.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 11 am to 11 pm EDT Sunday for amz135- 150. Small craft advisory from 5 am Sunday to 2 pm EDT Monday for amz152-154.
