Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure in the process of sliding offshore to set up offshore over the weekend persisting into next week. Temps will crash after sunset with mostly clear skies and light winds, but once the high is completely offshore, light Serly breeze should cut down on cooling effects. With that said, still room to come down for the forecast MinTs should areas stay decoupled longer considering the afternoon Tds of upper 30s/low 40s and only thin upper level clouds streaming overhead during the overnight not having much dampening effect on the radiational cooling possibility. Current forecast calls for low 50s inland, upper 50s to low 60s beaches. Once the high becomes established offshore SAT morning, S'rly flow sets up and allows for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA. As a result, a warming and drying trend is forecast into early next week. Maxts SAT in the mid to upper 70s areas cooled by the afternoon seabreeze, low 80s inland, upper 80s to low 90s inland SUN, and 90s to start next work- week. While we will likely remain below record high temps this weekend and into early next week, we will be close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The next frontal system approaches the area late next week. Schc of precip WED afternoon and evening with increasing moisture possibly being enough to lead to some seabreeze activity. Still quite a bit of model spread in regard to timing and moisture available for FROPA this far out, but this will bring the next best chances for precip. Front currently forecast to cross THU.
18z Friday through Wednesday VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Even with light winds and a slowly moistening return flow tonight, BR/FG appears unlikely. On Saturday, southerly winds should get a bump up with the seabreeze as it develops and moves inland.
Outlook: Continued moisture return in persistent southerly flow may lead to periods of low CIGs/stratus over the weekend, especially at night into the early morning hours. Otherwise, a daily seabreeze is expected with occasionally gusty winds. The seabreeze is likely to be TSRA-free through early next week, but the chance isn't zero. The next appreciable TSRA risk looks to be the middle of next week.
Nw winds will grad diminish through the day, as high pressure builds over the waters, mainly 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. Winds will grad back overnight becoming SSW 5-15 kt.
Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): High pressure sets up offshore, allowing for typical summertime pattern along with a mostly dry and warming forecast into the weekend. Mostly S-SW winds through the period with high pressure offshore. Light to moderate SSW winds in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes. Seas generally remaining 2-4 ft.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
