Key MESSAGE 1), High pressure continues to slide offshore this afternoon with temps warming up nicely across ENC, getting into the 50s and 60s across our inland zones and 40s and 50s across the OBX where low clouds remain. Aforementioned high will gradually push offshore tonight into Wednesday bringing steady SW flow and WAA to ENC into the end of the week. As a result much warmer temps and a welcome break from the cold is forecast from Wed onwards. Highs inland are forecast get into the 70s each day through Friday. Across the immediate coast and OBX, cooler coastal waters may keep these areas closer to the 50s to 60s each day while low temps each night remain in the 40s to 50s. Some inland locations may approach record temps, which are generally in the low 80s inland. However, the one caveat to the rest of this weeks high temps will be the impact that periods of clouds and chances for widely scattered showers have on the temp forecast as a few weak systems traverse the area late in the week. This may result in slightly lower temps than currently forecast.
Key Message 2), Not much has changed since the previous update as powerful backswell from a strong low pressure system located in the central North Atlantic continues to impact the Outer Banks this afternoon bringing widespread 6-9 ft swell with wave periods of 10-13 sec to our coastal waters. Guidance has gradually gotten a slightly better handle on these waves so continue to expect this elevated surf to impact portions of the Outer Banks into this evening before subsiding. So continue to have a high surf advisory in place across Ocracoke and Hatteras Island through 10PM tonight. There remains the potential for some localized minor water level rises in the more vulnerable locations during times of high tide this evening before swell finally subsides across the area.
Key Message 3), Positively tilted shortwave will track across the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains late this week with the trough taking on a more negative tilt and deepening slightly as it reaches the east coast late this weekend. At the mid levels southern stream shortwave quickly traverses the CONUS reaching the Southeast by Sun/Mon while a northern stream shortwave dives S'wards at the same time potentially phasing with the southern stream as it pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, cold front will drop SE'wards across ENC on Sat and stall around the area with a wave of low pressure then riding along this stalled front and deepening after it pushes offshore bringing chances for rain to the region this weekend. Rain then gradually ends from west to east Sun night into Monday as temps fall. There is a chance for a non impactful rain/snow mix towards the end of the event this weekend Sun night into Mon. However, this will likely be the typical cold air chasing the moisture setup so have little confidence in any other ptype besides rain. Will note, while I have used a primarily NBM blend for the weekends PoPs as well, the NBM typically tends to struggle with holding onto moisture for far too long so precip could end much sooner than currently forecast. Biggest challenges with this setup is how deep the incoming trough will be as it moves over the area and will the northern and southern stream shortwaves phase as this will impact the strength of the cold air coming into ENC Sun into Mon as well as how strong the aforementioned surface low could get as it tracks across the region Sun night into Mon.
18z Tuesday through Sunday Conditions have improved to VFR just about everywhere finally early this afternoon. The remaining few sites, mostly along the eastern coast will be VFR with clear skies in the next hour or so. Vfr conditions will continue for the rest of the day and into tonight with just some increasing high clouds. By early tomorrow morning some patchy MVFR level fog development is possible, but the signal is far weaker than this past morning. While we still will have good surface moisture, an increasing wind gradient and good coverage of mid and high clouds should inhibit any type of widespread fog. Vfr conditions will then continue tomorrow with increasing SW winds, gusting to 25-30 mph in the afternoon.
Outlook: VFR conditions should continue into Thursday morning. Thereafter, some sub-VFR conditions will be possible as a weak front temporarily sink south into the region. Vfr conditions should then return, but only briefly as a cold front brings unsettled conditions Friday and potentially most of the weekend.
Small craft conditions continue for the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout as elevated long period swell impacts our waters. This will keep 6-9 ft seas across the area through tonight. As low pulls further away seas are forecast to gradually lower closer to 4-6 ft as winds remain light through tonight.
As we get into Wednesday, the pressure gradient is forecast to tighten as a system passes well to the north bringing 15-20 kt SW'rly winds and 25-30 kt gusts to our coastal waters as well as 5-7 ft seas. There is a low end possibility for a small craft advisory to be needed for the Pamlico Sound for Wednesday afternoon and evening, but forecast confidence is not high that we see 25+ kt gusts across the area so elected to hold off on any additional issuance of SCAs for Wed.
Outlook: Conditions improve Thursday into Friday but another round of SCA possible late in the weekend as a low pressure system traverses the region.
Nc, high surf advisory until 10 pm EST this evening for ncz204-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 am EST Thursday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 11 am EST Thursday for amz152-154- 156. Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 11 am EST Thursday for amz158.
