A cold front will push across the area early this morning with high pressure building in today and Friday. High pressure pushes offshore Friday night ahead of a potent cold front that will move through on Sunday. The coldest air of the season arrives early next week with Arctic high pressure building into the region.
Today As of 2 AM Thursday,
Key Messages, - Cool and breezy today
A cold front currently across the piedmont will push across ENC during the pre-dawn hours. High clouds are moving offshore and the sfc front will push through with little clouds. Breezy SW winds keeping the boundary layer mixed with temps in the 40s most areas to lower 50s south coast. Caa will ramp up behind the front allowing temps to fall to the mid to upper 30s by daybreak.
High pressure builds in from the west today with CAA continuing through the day bringing breezy NW winds, strongest through mid day then gradually diminishing through the afternoon. Subsidence from westerly downslope flow will keep mainly sunny skies today. Highs expected in the mid to upper 40s.
Tonight As of 2 AM Thursday,
Key Messages, - Cold, increasing clouds after midnight
As of 1 AM Thursday, High pressure becomes centered across the area late tonight. Skies will mainly clear through the evening but will be see increasing mid and high clouds after midnight as a shortwave trough approaches. Temps will quickly fall into the 30s after sunset but increasing clouds will help inhibit additional cooling after midnight. Lows expected in the mid to upper 20s inland to 30s along the coast.
Friday through Wednesday As of 2 AM Thursday,
Key Messages,
- A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on Sunday
- Wind chills in the single digits to low teens possible Sunday night/Monday morning
Friday and Saturday, A shortwave trough will push across the region Friday bringing mid and high clouds across the region but moisture is limited with the system and WNW downslope flow will bring sufficient subsidence to prevent any precip across ENC. Temps will warm a few degrees, especially southern sections where clouds won't be as thick, with high expected in the upper 40s north to mid 50s south. High pressure becomes centered across the area Saturday with mainly sunny skies bringing additional warming and expect highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Sunday and Sunday night, A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend with a robust upper trough digging across the East Coast and an attendant cold front pushing across the area Sunday. Moisture is somewhat limited but favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area. There remains some timing difference with the front as well as precip coverage among the guidance but the trend over the past 24 hours has been to increasing PoPs and coverage across ENC. Any precip will begin as rain but the column cools quickly behind the front and could see a change over to a rain/snow mix or all snow before ending late afternoon and evening. Still much too early to think about potential accumulating snow, especially giving the inconsistency among guidance but will continue to monitor trends over the next few day.
Temps a bit tricky on Sunday and will be dictated by the timing of the cold front and there remains a large spread among guidance. Currently have highs Sunday in mid 40s inland to mid 50s coast but that may be optimistic if the front passes through earlier in the morning. Temps will fall through the afternoon as CAA ramps up behind the front with gusty NW winds. Caa continues Sunday night with temps expected to drop into the teens inland to 20s along the coast. Wind chills are expected to drop to the single digits to teens across the area after midnight into mid-morning Monday.
Monday through Wednesday, Arctic high pressure will build into the area Monday bringing the coldest airmass of the season and highs are expected to remain in the 30s most areas despite mainly sunny skies. Monday will be another frigid night with temps falling into the upper teens to lower 20 away from the coast. High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week with highs in the 40s Tuesday and 50s on Wednesday.
12z Thursday through Monday As of 605 AM Thursday,
Key Messages
- VFR conditions expected through the TAF period
Cold front has finally pushed offshore this morning leaving W to NW'rly winds in its wake. General expectation is for these winds to increase after sunrise with gusts up around 15-20 kts possible after about 10Z. After sunset winds ease and become light and variable to calm. With high pressure building overhead, clear skies will remain across ENC. Normally this would promote some kind of fog threat for the area but with ample dry air in place in the wake of the departing cold front don't expect any fog tonight. Otherwise VFR conditions will continue across ENC today and tonight. One potential caveat to all of this is across the OBX where a shortwave will make its way across the region this afternoon bringing a brief period of lower clouds closer to about 3-5 kft.
Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through Sat with a low end chance at some sub-VFR conditions on SUnday across ENC as a cold front moves across the area. Vfr conditions would return on Monday regardless.
As of 605 AM Thursday,
Key Messages
- Gales have ended across our coastal waters with small craft advisories now in place across all waters this morning.
- An Arctic front will push through the waters on Sunday with Strong Small Craft Advisory to Gales expected Sunday night into Monday.
Winds across our coastal waters have fallen below 35 kts and as a result have cancelled the gale warnings. However, as a shortwave moves across the region this morning, expect winds to bump up after sunrise resulting in widespread small craft advisory conditions with wind gusts up around 25-30 kts. Given this have replaced all gale warnings with a small craft advisory. These small craft advisories go out through this morning with all small crafts ending by this afternoon.
Prev Disc, Today through Friday night, Strong winds continue early this morning ahead of a cold front which is currently pushing across the piedmont. Currently seeing 15-25 kt winds across most of the nearshore waters and sounds but seeing Gales near the Gulf Stream where better mixing is occurring. Seas are currently 2-4 ft northern waters and 5-9 ft central and southern waters.
The front will push across the waters by dawn with winds becoming NW and gradually diminish through the day. Winds and seas are expected to drop below SCA criteria this afternoon. High pressure builds in Friday bringing light winds with seas around 2-3 ft. A weak shortwave will push through Friday night which may help to tighten the gradients some but guidance keeps conditions below SCA criteria.
Saturday through Monday, Good boating conditions are expected Saturday but that will be short-lived as another potent Arctic front is set to cross the area on Sunday with strong SCA to Gale Force winds likely behind the front Sunday and Sunday night. Conditions will improve on Monday as high pressure build back into the area.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 am EST this morning for amz131- 136-137-230-231. Small craft advisory until 1 pm EST this afternoon for amz135. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EST this afternoon for amz150- 152-154-156-158.
