Key MESSAGE 1, Low pressure will continue to meander off the coast into Thursday with high pressure building in from the NW. Sct fair weather cumulus will quickly dissipate this evening with loss of sfc heating with winds decoupling inland allowing for good radiational cooling conditions and expect another night with temps well below normal, but a few degrees warmer than last night, with lows in the 50s inland to low 60s along the coast. Some typically cooler locations may drop into the upper 40s tonight.
Surf conditions are slowly improving across the Outer Banks and have cancelled the High Surf Advisory for Hatteras Island as breaking waves have dropped below 6 ft, however it will remain hazardous in the surf zone with a high risk of rip currents and large breaking waves this afternoon. A high rip current risk is forecast for the beaches north of Cape Hatteras tomorrow as well.
Continued dry with less wind on Thursday as high pressure becomes centered over the area. The warming trend continues with high climbing back to near normal in the mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2, As we get into Friday and this weekend, low offshore is forecast to push further out to sea with high pressure becoming anchored off the coast this weekend. This will bring steady S-SW'rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses, and warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the 90s inland and 80s along the coast and OBX bringing a return to more summer like temps. Long term probabilistic guidance continues to suggest a probability of a Moderate or higher HeatRisk to be about 60-80%+ on Saturday/Sunday across portions of ENC, so those sensitive to heat issues are encouraged to keep an eye on the forecast over the next few days. Next potential frontal passage looks to occur early next week with typical longer range timing and location uncertainty with this feature. This could bring our next best chance at some wetting rainfall.
00z Thursday through Monday VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the course of the 00z TAF cycle. Generally light and variable winds are expected during this time as well. Of note, though, the seabreeze will lead to a southeasterly wind shift at OAJ and EWN tomorrow afternoon (similar to what has happened this afternoon).
Outlook: High pressure will gradually push offshore by the end of the week, with winds becoming S'rly by late Thursday and into Friday. Winds will remain light into this weekend. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period with high pressure in control of the ambient weather.
Low pressure will continue to slowly pull away from the coast tonight into Thursday as high pressure build in from the NW bringing gradually improving conditions through the end of the week. Currently seeing N to NE winds around 10-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt and seas around 4-7 ft across the nearshore waters this afternoon while guidance showing 6-10 ft seas across the 20-60 nm zones. N to NE winds will diminish to around 5-15 kt late tonight into Thursday morning, then will back to E to SE late afternoon. Seas will subside to 3-6 ft near shore water by Thursday morning with 5-9 ft seas across the outer zones, then to 2-5 ft nearshore and 4-7 ft across the outer zones Thursday night.
Have cancelled the SCA north of Oregon Inlet. The SCA continues through tonight for the waters south of Ocracoke Inlet and Thursday evening for the central waters.
Outlook: A return to more typical warm-season patterns late in the week and through this weekend with south to southwesterly flow and localized surges in the late afternoon and evening associated with thermal gradients.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. Beach hazards statement from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for ncz196-203-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT Thursday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for amz156-158.
