High pressure builds over the Eastern Seaboard as a series of weakening dry cold fronts move through the area through this weekend. By early next week, another frontal passage will bring our next threat for precip to Eastern North Carolina with strong high pressure and noticeably cooler air building into the area by mid next week.
Until 6 pm this evening As of 850 AM Fri, High pressure will continue to ridge in at the sfc and aloft today, leading to another pleasant early fall day. An isolated shower will be possible this afternoon and evening, as shortwave approaches from the west. However given the lack of moisture and forcing, not expecting much other than possibly a few sprinkles. A weak coastal trough offshore may lead to sct showers over the southern coastal waters today. Low level thickness values, NE winds and mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies will keep temps near climo, with highs in the 70s for the Outer Banks and upper 70s to low 80s inland.
6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday As of 240 AM Fri, Sfc high pressure will remain in control tonight as upper ridging weakens over the Carolinas. Weak shortwave energy moving through the Carolinas will keep skies bkn to ovc with mid and high clouds. An isolated shower possible this evening, but expect area to remain mostly dry. Clouds should keep low temps in the low to mid 60s, also limiting the fog threat.
Saturday through Thursday As of 0330 Friday, High pressure into the weekend with a mostly dry FROPA expected Saturday and a wetter front early next week bringing the next best chance of rain.
Weekend, The weekend will start with a trough aloft working across the Great Lakes as the ridge that has been overhead erodes further. A cold front will slide across ENC this weekend, currently forecast to move through Saturday. The ridge, while weakening, will still keep moisture in the column lacking and with the greatest upper level support from the trough well to the N, continue to keep FROPA dry for the time being. Select guidance is starting to suggest the possibility of iso to sct showers associated with the front. Have increased Pops from mid morning Saturday into Sunday morning, but still think the column is too dry to support any meaningful precip so have kept them below SChc.
Next Week, Another front crosses through Monday, but this front is associated with a deeper upper level trough, and the column's moisture, while not anomalously high, will be greater than Saturday's front. Carrying SChc-Chc PoPs for this period to cover the possibility of very light rain for FROPA as well as a SChc of thunder assuming shower activity will be focused around and just after peak heating. The airmass behind this stronger early week front will be markedly cooler, mid70/low50 split, some sheltered spots inland may even see MinTs in the 40s by Wednesday morning. This strong ridging behind Monday's front is forecast to shunt any possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico to cross over Florida and then push out to sea over the Atlantic mid-week.
13z Friday through Tuesday Through tonight As of 630 AM Fri, VFR conditions currently across the terminals this morning, though there is potential for patchy fog over the coastal plain through 13z, with greatest chances at PGV and ISO. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through the period, with increasing mid and high clouds late today and tonight. Cloud cover should limit fog threat overnight.
Saturday through Tuesday As of 0330 Friday, VFR flight cats expected to prevail in drier airmass outside of early morning fog potential. A dry FROPA forecast Saturday which could bring reduced flight cats due to low level clouds. A stronger front crosses ENC early next week which will be our next best chance of rain.
Through tonight As of 850 AM Fri, Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt with seas 3-6 ft. High pressure will remain in control through the period, keeping NE winds 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the outer waters today and tonight. Scas continue for the central waters with seas 4-6 ft.
Saturday through Tuesday As of 0340 Friday, NEerly 10-15kt through the weekend. Sca seas for central waters likely continue through at least Monday. Winds flip around to become SWerly late Sun ahead of the next front to pass through area waters early next week, currently forecasting SWerly 10-20kt S of the front, Nerly 10-15kt N of it. Strong long period swell from distant Hurricane Kirk begins arriving Sunday, peaking early next week. Current forecast has swell on the order of 7ft@16sec.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 6 pm EDT Monday for amz152-154.
