Key MESSAGE 1, Hot conditions are forecast for Saturday as temps get into the 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints mixing out into the upper 40s to low 50s tomorrow across much of our inland zones, Min RH's will reach 20-30% outside of the OBX where Min RHs of 40-60% will be found. Wind gusts could get as high as 20 mph at times Saturday afternoon especially behind the seabreeze as it works its way inland. With ongoing wildfires already occuring across ENC and the threat for easy ignition of fires given the dry and gusty conditions, in collaboration with the NCFS have hoisted an Increased Fire Danger Statement out across Martin and Beaufort Counties and points south.
ENC remains under widespread drought conditions with just about the entire area under severe drought (D2) conditions with a small sliver of Martin county under extreme drought (D3) conditions. The lack of rain continues to be rather noticeable across the Southeastern US, with rainfall amounts since March 23 running about 10-50% below normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period. To add some additional perspective, it would take roughly 9-12" of rain over the course of one month to end the drought here in ENC.
Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Either way, a statewide burn ban remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The biggest change in the forecast was to slow down the progression of the incoming front on Saturday with most precip now entering into the CWA by Saturday evening. The name of the game has been to follow trends in guidance. This includes potential for a stronger low offshore Sun night into Mon, lower rain chances on Tuesday with a slower progression of an incoming shortwave and some increasing potential for rain next weekend.
Weak mid level shortwave is currently transiting SE'wards along the periphery of an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface this will leave a stalled frontal boundary to the north of the area stretching from NW to SE across the Mid-Atlantic. With increasing moisture advecting into the Carolinas along this front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should persist through about 10pm before weakening with the loss of daytime heating and instability.
Further to the west, our next feature of note will be a surface low and its associated frontal boundaries which will track E'wards across the Carolinas on Sat night and Sun as a mid level shortwave quickly transits across the Mid- Atlantic. With low level moisture continuing to increase, expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across ENC Sat evening into the overnight hours and Sunday morning. Guidance continues to suggest any storms that do develop will likely remain sub-severe as deep layer shear generally remains 25 kts or less, instability is meager, and greatest forcing from the approaching front is located to the north. Rainfall totals still look to generally remain below 0.5 inches overall.
This will be the beginning of our more active pattern over the next several days with the upper low to the east pushing out into the central Atlantic and a southern stream jet stream overspreading the Mid-Atlantic and bringing several mid level disturbances quickly east into our area.
Guidance has come into some better agreement that as the front on Sunday pushes offshore a low will develop along this front and deepen as it slowly tracks east into the central Atlantic. While precip will finish by Sunday, a decent N'rly surge of winds will move over the area Sun afternoon into Monday as well and have increased winds and gusts to account for this.
Trends for Tuesday have become a lot drier, with precip chances and amounts dwindling. This is due to ridging in the wake of the low offshore lingering, substantially weakening the approaching front. There is a scenario at play now where we get no rainfall on Tuesday. Late week next week will also be worth monitoring for rainfall probabilities but given general uncertainty in the upper level pattern and surface features will continue to just monitor the chances.
00z Saturday through Wednesday A weak frontal boundary draped NW to SE across northeast NC this evening has been a focus for SCT SHRA and TSRA, mainly east of the TAF sites. This boundary may edge a bit more south and west this evening, but the expectation is for it to stall and then eventually lift back north as a warm front on Saturday. For OBX runways, the risk of TSRA should decrease by 02z with the loss of daytime heating and instability. Along that boundary, winds will vary from SW to E. Winds will eventually become predominantly southwest once the front lifts back to the north.
Like today, isolated to SCT afternoon SHRA and TSRA may develop during peak heating on Saturday, especially along the seabreeze.
Outlook: A wetter, more active pattern develops over the weekend lasting into early next week that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. Showers and storms accompany a cold front crossing ENC SAT night into SUN with sub-VFR VIS possible under heavier rain of stronger cells. Cigs decrease to MVFR, and perhaps IFR, early SUN morning. These sub-VFR CIGs are expected to remain in place through MON at least before becoming confined to the coast and offshore. These lower clouds could keep MVFR flight cats at OBX terminals into mid-week.
Biggest change in the forecast was to extend the ongoing small craft out until 5AM Saturday as the thermal trough is forecast to maximize once again tonight allowing for periods of SCA winds south of Cape Hatteras.
As of this evening, a weak cold front has moved about halfway through the ENC waters from the north. South of the front, southwest winds of 15-25kt are ongoing. North of the front, winds are generally out of the south or southeast at 5-15kt. The front is forecast to stall this evening, then eventually lift back north as a warm front by Saturday morning, with a more dominant southwest flow redeveloping areawide. Where southwest flow persists the longest is where the greatest risk of 25kt winds and elevated seas will be. In light of this, the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the night, but it should be noted that there will be a temporary lull in winds this evening, especially from Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet.
The localized gradient associated with a thermal trough is then forecast to weaken by Sat morning allowing for winds to also ease across coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras, thus ending the SCA conditions across these waters. As we get into Sat afternoon and evening winds will become S'rly at 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20 kts across all waters out ahead of an incoming cold front. Seas across our coastal waters from Sat morning onwards will lower to 2-4 ft as well given the slightly weaker winds.
Outlook: An area of low pressure and its associated fronts are forecast to move through the ENC waters Saturday night and Sunday with elevated winds and seas and the potential for thunderstorms. The greatest thunderstorm risk appears to be on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Behind the front winds shift to a N'rly direction Sun afternoon and evening and increase with the potential for strong small craft to near gale force winds. While no headlines have been issued just yet for this threat will be monitoring trends as the wind and sea forecast could increase depending on the exact track and strength of a developing low pressure to our north and east. Either way unfavorable boating conditions do look to set up from Sun afternoon through at least Mon evening if not longer.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 5 am EDT Saturday for amz154-156- 158.
