Key MESSAGE 1, The CAD wedge is keeping us cool and overcast with breezy northeast winds. Temps likely won't make it out of the 50s today for most of the area (40s Northern Outer Banks). With a few shortwaves moving through aloft and a developing coastal trough, chances for light rain will increase this afternoon and peak late tonight with greatest chances across northern NC (40-60%). A few light showers (15-25%) may linger into tomorrow along the Outer Banks as a weak surface low develops along the offshore boundary and it pivots closer to shore. The wedge will break down tomorrow as the surface high to our northeast moves farther out to sea and an upper ridge starts to creep in from the west. Cloud cover will decrease and temps will rebound into the mid/upper 60s inland and mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches.
KEY MESSAGE 2, An anomalously strong ridge will set up over the southeast US later this week. This will bring quite the pattern change to ENC with near record temperatures possible for some inland zones Thursday-Saturday (see Climate Section below). Highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s/low 80s inland and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there's potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons.
18z Monday through Saturday Much of the CWA at overcast MVFR skies through the entire day today with cigs 1.5 to 2.5 k ft. Tonight, a shortwave moves into the mid- Atlantic and brings lower ceilings and spotty light rain, with all sites forecasted to reach IFR ceilings, with KEWN and KOAJ first to drop to IFR, then interior sites KPGV and KISO. Cigs should slowly lift late morning into early afternoon Tuesday.
Tuesday night through Saturday: Improving aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week. As we get into late week, moist southerly flow moves into the region as high sits offshore. If radiational cooling conditions occur during the night thanks to clear skies and calm winds, fog potential will be worth monitoring.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound.
Latest obs show NE winds at 15-25 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt and 5-7 ft seas. Winds and seas will start to relax tonight with conditions improving to sub-SCA criteria for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of Ocracoke Inlet. Winds will weaken tonight to around 10-25 kts as a coastal trough offshore pivots into the nearshore waters. Winds will be 10-15 kts tomorrow but wind direction will vary from NE to SE depending on the location of the trough. Lingering elevated seas will keep the SCAs in place for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet through late tomorrow night with the central waters potentially hanging on to 6 ft seas through most of Wednesday.
Outlook: Pleasant boating conditions are expected for the rest of the week and into this weekend. Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 1 am EST Tuesday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 3 am EST Wednesday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 7 pm EST Wednesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 5 am EST Tuesday for amz156-158.
