Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

728 am EST Sat Nov 18 2017

Synopsis

High pressure will gradually move offshore today. A strong cold front will move through the area early Sunday. High pressure will be over the area Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night followed by high pressure for mid to late next week.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 700 AM Saturday, updated for expiration of Freeze Warning/Frost Advisory. Rest of forecast on track.

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As of 300 AM Saturday, High pressure moving offshore and strong cold front will produce pre-frontal warm sector conditions over area today. Initial weak short wave will result in increasing high clouds this morning with some CU/SCU development this afternoon. Low level thicknesses increasing to 1360-1365 meters support max temps 65-70.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday As of 300 AM Saturday, Models remain consistent with positively tilted short wave and associated cold front moving into area late tonight and near coast by 7 AM Sunday. With main dynamics moving north of area, models continue to indicate main widespread precip over NW third of area and increased POPs to likely there with solid chance POPs rest of area. Bulk shear of 50-60 KT indicated but negligible CAPE/instability, this expecting only showers but any heavier activity could produce gusty winds. Stronger gradient winds of 25-35 MPH support wind advisory for Outer Banks and eastern Carteret County. Min temps from mid 50s inland to near 60 coast.

Long Term

Sunday through Friday As of 230 am Sat, A cold front will move off the coast Sunday morning. High pressure then builds in Monday and Tuesday. Another front will move off the coast Wednesday morning. Low pressure will pass by to the southeast Thanksgiving Day into Friday.

Sunday, The cold front is expected to cross eastern NC Sunday morning, with showers quickly ending from west to east before noon. Precipitation amounts will be light, mainly 0.10" or less in most areas. Low temps Sunday morning will be mild, in the 50s, as we will still be receiving strong warm air advection. Highs on Sunday will be cooler, with temps only rising 5-6 degrees from the morning lows behind the cold front.

Monday and Tuesday, High pressure will build in from the west Monday and then move off the coast on Tuesday. Cold air aloft will lead to much below normal highs on Monday, but then warmer southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder highs. Highs Monday will be in the mid 50s, and on Tuesday highs will reach 60-65. Low temps will be in the lower to mid 30s inland both Monday and Tuesday mornings, with mid to upper 30s further east, and low to mid 40s along the coast.

Wednesday thru Friday, Another fast-moving front will move off the coast Wednesday morning. After that, an offshore trough will develop and move over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday, and will bring showers to eastern NC. Have slight chance PoPs west of Highway 17 and chance east. Low pressure will pass by to the southeast Thursday and Friday. Gfs is much stronger with the low, while the ECMWF is much weaker. Consensus is favoring the ECMWF solution at this time. Will carry mostly slight chance PoPs Thursday and Friday.

High temps will be in the mid 60s Wednesday, and then the mid 50s Thursday and 55-60 Friday. Low temps Wed will range from the mid 40s inland to the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast. Lows Thursday will be around 40 on the coastal plain to 45-50 south coast and OBX. Lows Friday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s coastal plain to mid/upper 40s south coast and OBX.

Aviation

12z Saturday through Wednesday Through 12z Sunday As of 700 AM Saturday, VFR expected to prevail through this evening, then some MVFR conditions ahead of front overnight. High pressure moving offshore and front approaching from west will produce pre-frontal warm sector conditions today through evening with shower activity spreading in after 06Z. Will see increasing high clouds during the day with some SCU development this afternoon into evening, with some MVFR CIGs likely overnight. Sw winds will gust up to 25 KT during this afternoon and evening.

Long Term /Sun thru Wed/ As of 230 am Sat, The cold front will move quickly off the coast Sunday morning, with showers ending by mid-morning. After that, VFR conditions forecast through the rest of the period as high pressure builds back over the area.

Marine

Through tonight As of 700 AM Saturday, no changes with update.

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As of 330 AM Saturday, Latest guidance continues to indicate deteriorating conditions this afternoon into tonight with approach of strong cold front. Light and variable winds early will become SW by afternoon, increasing to 25-35 KT tonight. No change to headlines with Gales for coastal waters and Pamlico sound and SCA rest of waters.

Seas 2-4 feet early will build to 8-13 feet tonight.

Long Term /Sun thru Wed/ As of 230 am Sat, As the cold front crosses the waters Sunday morning, winds will weaken slightly and shift to NW 25-30 kts. Gales will end by late Sunday morning, with winds becoming 20-25 kts by late afternoon. Winds on Monday morning will be NNW 15-20 kts, subsiding to 10-15 kts in the afternoon. Winds Tuesday will be light and variable before becoming SSE 5-10 kts. Another front will cross the waters Wednesday morning, with winds becoming north 10-15 knots.

Seas will be 8-13 ft Sunday morning, subsiding to 6-9 ft Sunday afternoon. Seas will remain elevated through Sunday evening north of Ocracoke, then subside to 3-5 ft throughout Monday, then 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, wind advisory from 11 pm this evening to 10 am EST Sunday for ncz095-103-104. Marine, small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm EST Sunday for amz130-131-136-137. Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm EST Sunday for amz135-150-152-154-156-158.

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