High pressure will continue to build over the area tonight, gradually sliding off the Southeast coast Friday with another frontal system expected to move across the area on Saturday. This front stalls just south of the area with a wave of low pressure riding along this stalled front on Sunday and Monday. High pressure then builds in from the west later next week.
Until 6 am Friday morning As of 710 PM Thu, Still holding onto some gusty winds across much of the area this evening as double-barrel cyclone over eastern Canada and the Gulf of Maine is slow to exit offshore while weak high pressure centered over the Gulf States struggles to expand eastward. Winds offshore and over the Outer Banks are slightly lower than forecast and make some downward adjustments in the near-term forecast in response. Strato- cu is now confined almost entirely offshore, leaving our area under clear skies. Chilly temps with lows around freezing inland and upper 30s/lower 40s along the coast.
6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday As of 225 PM Thu, Sfc high pressure will continue to build over the area Friday, gradually sliding off the SE coast, with nearly zonal flow aloft. Low pressure and shortwave energy moving through the Mid-West will allow for increasing mid and high clouds Fri afternoon and evening. Low level thickness values, pc skies and W/WSW flow support temps near normal, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s inland and mid 50s along the Outer Banks.
Friday night through Thursday As of 200 PM Thurs, While there still remains some uncertainty with the weekend forecast and the overall progression of a cold frontal passage, things are gradually coming into focus. A rather benign pattern is expected to set up by early next week with the next potential frontal system then nearing ENC after mid next week. There is a very strong signal in the long term guidance for above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day time from (March 11-15)
Saturday and Sunday, The most complex portion of the long term forecast will likely be this weekend as several interactions between upper an mid level features will determine what we see at the surface. Though some things are coming into focus for this weekends weather. Zonal flow aloft gradually pushes off the East Coast by Sun while aforementioned positively tilted trough in the western CONUS pushes E'wards. At the mid levels, shortwave tracks across the Mid-Atlantic getting stretched out on Sun while upper low in the Desert Southwest pushes E'wards across the Southern Plains on Sat eventually getting to the Southeast on Sun. At the surface, low and cold front track across NC potentially bringing some light showers mainly to northern portions of the area Sat afternoon before this front stalls to the south. Further west wave of low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast States and tracks ENE'ward along this stalled front pushing off the Southeast Coast Sun as high pressure builds in from the north and west. How deep and how strong the trough to the west is will help determine if the entire area gets any precip or not this weekend. As of right now GFS appears to be the outlier with a stronger trough and thus further north mid level upper low and widespread rain across ENC Sat night into Sun. While ECWMF and Canadian guidance and their ensembles are much more suppressed with this upper level pattern and surface low allowing most of the area to remain precip free this weekend. Given the latest trends have just kept ENC mo cloudy with Chc PoPs in the forecast for now. Highs generally range from the 60s to 70s on Sat to the 40s to 50s on Sun behind the aforementioned cold front while lows will also be on the downtrend this weekend.
Monday through midweek, Trends support a drier forecast through mid next week with warming temps. Weak S'rn stream trough lags behind Mid- Atlantic shortwave with uncertainty on just how these two troughs interact. Trended toward a drier forecast solution as SFC high and NWerly mid and upper level winds should advect solidly dry air overhead, keeping Wx quiet. With that said, some of the alternate possibilities are a little more wet and dynamic. High pressure then builds into the Carolinas allowing for more benign weather into midweek. Temps will gradually be on the increase each day next week as low level thicknesses gradually increase. The next chance for precipitation looks to arrive on Thu with the arrival of the next frontal system. Moderating temps are expected with highs in the 60s Mon and 70s Tue-Thu.
00z Friday through Tuesday Through 00z Sat As of 715 PM Thu, High confidence in VFR conditions this evening as weak high pressure over the Gulf states attempts to expand eastward while deep low pressure continues to linger over the Gulf of Maine and eastern Canada. Clear skies now hold over all but the Outer Banks and will remain clear through the night and most of tomorrow morning, before passing mid-level clouds as a weak mid-level impulse swings across the region.
Gusty winds continue for a couple more hours tonight before easing but remaining steady out of the west. Flow backs southwesterly tomorrow as high passes to our south and east, with occasional gusts to 15-20 kt mainly over the coastal plain.
Friday night through Tuesday As of 200 PM Thurs, Primarily VFR flight cats through the period. Exception may be this weekend as a cold front tracks across the area and stalls just south of ENC bringing a low end chance for showers and lower ceilings. As this occurs low pressure looks to develop along this stalled boundary and track E'wards just south of ENC on Sunday and could bring rain and sub VFR conditions to the region.
Through Fri As of 225 PM Thu, Latest obs show W-WNW winds 15-25 kt gusting 25-35 kt with seas 5-8 ft (highest across the outer central and southern waters). High pressure will build over the waters tonight into Friday, with conditions gradually improving through the day Fri. Wnw winds will be steadily increasing this afternoon, peaking around 20-35 kt this evening. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound, with SCAs for the northern sounds/rivers and western rivers. The offshore nature of the winds have allowed seas to subside some today, especially near shore where seas will be around 3-5 ft while outer portions of the waters will be around 6-9 ft. Wind and seas will then gradually diminish after midnight tonight. Nw winds 10-20 kt to start off early Fri morning, becoming SW 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Expect seas to subside below 6 ft by Fri afternoon.
There is potential for lower than normal water levels across the Pamlico/Pungo Rvrs tonight given the period of strong WNW flow. This could lead to localized navigational concerns, but right now looks too marginal for an advisory.
Friday night through Tuesday As of 2 PM Thurs, Small craft conditions will be ongoing Friday night and likely to persist into Sat night or early Sunday across our coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the interaction between a departing ridge of high pressure to the east and an approaching low and its associated fronts to the west. Sw winds 15-25 kt gusting up to 30 kt Fri night into Sat shift W/NW 15-20 kt later Sat or Sat evening as a cold front crosses the waters. Northerly flow 10-20 kt is expected behind the front Sat night and Sunday. Monday the flow should be N to NW 10-15 kt as high pressure builds in. 5 to 8 ft seas Fri into early Sat are forecast to subside to 4-6 ft later Sat into early Sunday then 3-5 ft later Sunday and Monday.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 7 am EST Friday for ncz203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until 6 am EST Friday for amz131-230-231. Gale warning until 4 am EST Friday for amz135-150-152-154-156- 158. Small craft advisory until 4 am EST Friday for amz136-137.
