Key MESSAGE 1, Cool high pressure remains anchored over the Carolinas this morning, and as expected robust radiational cooling has taken hold over the forecast area. The coolest spots have fallen into the upper 30s, but widespread low to mid 30s are in place across inland areas. Freeze Warning remains in effect through 8 AM, before temps rebound later today into the mid 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2, NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide. Increased Fire Danger statement has been reissued for interior areas that get to less than 35% RH, despite the light winds, as fuels are very dry due to previous day's windy conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 3, A weak frontal boundary is forecast to approach ENC towards the middle of next week. This front will be running into notable ridging aloft, which makes its evolution less certain. Synoptically, this pattern tends to favor frontal boundaries weakening/losing support as they reach the Carolinas. Consequently, where models tend to differ is whether or not fronts in this pattern will stall over the area, or lift quickly back north as a warm front. The 00z model suite this morning has shifted quite notably towards a scenario where the front briefly stalls over ENC midweek, then lifts back north Friday. This would favor warmer temps and best rain chances late Wednesday into Thursday.
There is still some minor model support for a scenario where the front stalls over ENC for an extended period of time, potentially well into next weekend. This scenario favors an extended period of overrunning precipitation from mid-week into next weekend. With a strong CAD in place, this would also favor much cooler temperatures in the 50s to possibly 40s. This would be climatologically uncommon for early April. Currently, roughly 15-20% of total ensembles still support this solution.
Stay tuned for updates as significant forecast changes are possible in the coming days.
06z Sunday through Thursday VFR conditions are expected today and through tonight with high pressure moving offshore. As return flow develops, some moisture advection will result in clouds along the coast, and potentially as far inland as the US 17 corridor, but this shouldn't effect aviation as cloud bases remain 3500-5000 ft. Some coastal cloudiness continues overnight, but expect the TAF sites to remain mostly clear aside from areas of high clouds.
Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions are expected through mid week. However, with the moist, southerly flow regime in place, there could be early morning areas of patchy fog. Mid to late week, a weak frontal boundary may approach the area from the north, and this may introduce a chance of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions.
Regional conditions show diminishing northeasterly winds of 10-15 kts over sounds and nearshore waters, while over the Gulf Stream winds up to 30 kt are still in place. Seas are currently hovering at around 6 feet over central waters, but steadily falling elsewhere below 5 feet. Winds will diminish further as high pressure moves overhead and then offshore, resulting in winds veering easterly and then southerly by Monday morning, but at no higher than 10-15 kt. This will allow seas to subside, falling below 6 feet before sunset tonight.
Outlook: More benign boating conditions are expected to kick off next week thanks to high pressure offshore and light south to southwest flow developing around it. Eventually, the gradient is forecast to tighten by early to mid week, which may provide the next opportunity for 25kt winds.
Nc, freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for ncz029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198. Marine, small craft advisory until 6 pm EDT this evening for amz152- 154-156-158.
