High pressure will continue to build over the Carolinas this weekend, as a front remains stalled offshore. A cold front will move through early next week with low pressure developing along it. High pressure will build back over the area mid week.
Through tonight As of 145 AM Sat, Latest analysis shows high pressure building over the Carolinas, front offshore with low pressure moving eastward along it. Areas of light rain, drizzle and fog will continue overnight into Sat morning. Boundary is forecast to remain stalled just south of ENC today. Given the close proximity, and waves moving through the region, there's the potential for areas of light overrunning precipitation esp across the southern forecast area, likely creating a sharp precip gradient. Rain chances taper off to chc to the north, and slight chance to none north of Hwy 264. Cloud cover and low level thickness values will keep temps well below normal, with highs generally 45-50 deg.
Sunday through 6 am Sunday As of 145 AM Sat, High pressure will continue to build over the Carolinas tonight with front well offshore, as waves move along it. Cloud cover will limit radiational cooling some, but still expect lows to fall below freezing for most inland areas. Areas of fog could also develop inland, leading to another isolated risk for patchy freezing fog.
Sunday through Friday As of 145 AM Sat, Mainly dry Sun, then small precip chances Mon, with dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker possible by week's end.
Sunday, High pressure center reaches the Carolinas from the N, keeping it mostly dry. Partial clearing of skies with a decrease in moisture and increasing heights allow MaxTs to reach back into the 50s.
Monday, The start of next week brings another chc of precip with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing through, and spur offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps tumble through late afternoon, but moisture is coming to an end. There may be some overlap where rain mixes with some snow, but very limited to no impacts expected even if this low end scenario pans out, as daytime highs will be in the 40s and a 'warm' ground would be in place.
Tuesday through Thursday, Dry conditions across the board return as high pressure builds back in at the surface behind Monday's front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the coast. Highs in the 40s Tue warming back into the 50s Wed as winds become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed morning.
Friday, Next chc for appreciable precip arrives by week's end, as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS in a cont active synoptic pattern. Due to uncertainty this far out in details and timing, pops kept at 20% or lower for now.
12z Saturday through Wednesday As of 0720 Saturday,
Key Messages,
- High confidence in IFR flight cats, or lower, through the morning - Flight cats slow to improve through the day SAT, VFR by late evening. - Improvements will be short lived with another round of fog expected overnight SAT into SUN am.
Precip shield expected to remain offshore early, creeping back NWward over the Crystal Coast during the day with a brief window of 20-40% PoPs over coastal TAF sites around midday. Reduced VIS and OVC stratus with moisture trapped under the frontal inversion keeps IFR in place through morning. Vis and CIGs will be slow to improve through the day, getting to MVFR in the afternoon and then VFR spreading from W to E through the evening. Winds remain light, generally out of the NW early becoming more Werly through the afternoon and evening. Skies expected to clear as high pressure builds in which will open the door for some radiational cooling and another bout of subVFR fog developing from W to E overnight tonight.
Outlook: VFR conditions likely persist across the area on SUN once fog clears out ahead of the next approaching front and coastal low pressure system. By Monday, pattern becomes wet again return to sub-VFR flight cats likely as the developing low pressure makes it closest point of approach. Vfr conditions are then once again expected Tue into Wed across ENC.
As of 445 AM Sat, Latest obs show N-NW winds 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt with seas 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-5 ft south. Extended SCAs for the northern and central waters through mid morning for lingering swell keeping seas around 6 ft. High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend with stalled front offshore. Nw winds 5-15 kt today, becoming N-NE tonight and Sunday. Seas will subside to mainly 2-4 ft tonight, occasionally up to 5 ft across the outer central waters.
Mon, Backdoor front passes through with a sharp ramp up in NNE winds. Solid SCA conditions expected, with the possibility for gales, esp the better mixed Gulf waters offshore south of Cape Hatteras. Seas will quickly inc to 5-9 ft during the day Mon and remain there through early Tue.
Tue through Thu, Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late Wed winds turn swrly and inc to near SCA (15-25 kt) for the Gulf waters, and 10-20 kt elsewhere.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 10 am EST this morning for amz150- 152-154.
