Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure offshore continues ushering in a warm, moist sfc airmass, with stubborn ridging above 850mb keeping upper levels drier. As a result, a warm and dry pattern is forecast into mid next week. Maxts today will climb into the low 90s inland, low 80s for beaches. Temps will remain warm into mid next week, with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and 80s for the beaches. While we will likely remain below record high temps this weekend and into early next week, we will be close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks.
KEY MESSAGE 2, The next frontal system approaches the area late next week, with 00Z guidance suggesting it stalls across the mid-Atlantic with the ridge winning out. Rainfall probs will be maximized where the front ends up stalling, ranging anywhere from VA to SC. Some higher uncertainty exists for PoPs in the second half of a week given the reliance on the location of the stalled boundary. Severe threat looks meager at best with poor dynamics aloft thanks to the ridging. High sits over the Northeast US behind the front through Friday, and once it finally moves offshore the front will lift north and depart the mid-Atlantic region. Temp forecast also is dependent on the stalled boundary. If it sits near VA we may see temps warmer than fcst, and if it sits over the Carolinas we may see temps cooler than fcst (whether it be due to rain/cloud cover along the front or NE flow behind it).
06z Sunday through Thursday VFR SKC through today with just some sct cirrus. Winds light out of the SW early this morning, with a low end chance of some clouds at around 1 kft around sunrise in Duplin and Onslow counties. Probs are low enough where it is not mentioned in the TAFs. Today, winds light out of the SW ahead of the seabreeze, becoming S and increasing to 10-15 kt behind the seabreeze. Thermal gradient this afternoon and evening will bring southerly gusts of 20-25 knots in the vicinity of NOBX. Winds become light to calm tonight night, with fog and/or low stratus possible early morning Monday.
Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Continued moisture return in persistent southerly flow may lead to TEMPO periods of low CIGs/stratus each night into midweek between the late evening hours into the early morning hours. Otherwise, a daily seabreeze is expected with occasionally gusty winds. With dry high pres in place, no convection is expected with chances below 10%. The next chance of showers or a few storms is Thursday with a front settling into ENC.
Latest obs show light winds generally 10-15 kt with some higher gusts around 20 kt near warmer Gulf Stream waters. Seas are at 3-5 feet thanks to the thermal gradient yesterday afternoon and evening and it's associated higher winds. Similar pattern expected today, with S/SW winds at 10-20 knots, with a couple hours of 25 knot gusts possible near NOBX/Pamlico Sound with the thermal gradient in the afternoon and evening hours.
Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Typical summertime pattern will rinse and repeat the winds forecast with mostly dry and warming forecast into mid week. Mostly S-SW winds through the period with high pressure offshore. Light to moderate SSW winds in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes. Croatan, Roanoke, and Albemarle Sounds most likely to see 25kt gusts in the afternoon and evening, no SCA currently planned for these sounds despite criteria likely being met briefly. Seas generally remaining 2-4 ft, with 5 footers possible early in the night due to the thermal gradient.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
