Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

747 am EDT Thu may 24 2018


A cold front will move through the area early this morning followed by high pressure building in from the north today and tonight. The high will move offshore Friday with a Bermuda high pattern returning for the weekend. Tropical moisture will begin streaming through the region especially for the latter part of Memorial Day weekend through mid week next week.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 730 AM Thursday, The front has pushed south of highway 70s but remains north of Jacksonville and will continue to push south of the area this morning. Most of the shower activity has pushed just south of the area but a lingering isolated showers continue to occasionally pop up in Onslow County. Expect generally dry conditions across much of the area today as high pressure builds in from the northwest, although could see a few showers or thunderstorms continuing to develop across far southern sections, and mainly along the sea breeze this afternoon. Highs today expected in the mid 80s inland to around 80 coast.

Short Term

Tonight As of 3 AM Thursday, Dry conditions expected tonight with mainly clear skies as high pressure ridges in from the north while migrating off the mid-Atlantic coast. Lows expected to drop into the lower 60 inland to mid 60s closer to the coast.

Long Term

Friday through Wednesday As of 410 AM Thu, The first part of Memorial Day Weekend should be quite pleasant, then increasing chances for showers by the tail end of the holiday weekend.

Friday, Return south to southeasterly flow will ensue as sprawling high pres moves off the coast. Dry conditions expected with afternoon temps warming into the mid 80s interior to near 80 coast for highs. Only a very small chance for an iso shower or storm mainly for SW counties as some deeper moisture will be present here. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies expected. Conditions cont dry and mild Fri night with lows around 70 most areas.

Saturday, Continuing moistening and warming conditions expected, and some indications there will be sct showers around especially during the morning hours as some weak shortwave energy swings through. By afternoon, more of a typical summer time pattern with an iso or sct shower or storm for inland locales and rising hts.

Sunday, Tricky fcst as some model differences at play. Warm and humid conditions expected as southerly flow persists. However, weak ridging will be in place between tropical system in the GOM and Bermuda High offshore. The 24/00Z GFS is faster with bringing in surge of tropical moisture through E NC with widespread covg as early as Sun afternoon, though ECM/CMC slower with ridging continuing through the day. Will blend more heavily with the drier solns, and continue the inherited chc pops, though raise them to around 40% inland, as ECM MOS pops indicate.

Sunday night into Monday, Much better chances for showers/storms arrive this period as a piece of tropical moisture impacts E NC, indirectly associated with the main tropical system in the GOM. Layer streamlines from the ECMWF indicate deep moisture convergence over ENC maximized late Sun night into Mon, and will raise pops to 50-60%. Periods of heavy rain are possible as mix ratios inc to +14 g/kg and Pwats aoa 2 inches.

Tuesday into Wednesday, Fcst becomes less certain this period, as the area will still be under threat for showers and storms indirectly associated with the tropical system over the deep south. Will maintain higher chance pops but cap them at 50%, as timing of potential shortwaves interacting with frontal boundary in the area will dictate when precip moves through the region. Nevertheless, it still looks like an unsettled period as very warm and humid air mass will still be in place. Highs this period generally in the mid 80s inland to near 80 coast. Lows will be 70-75.


12z Thursday through Monday Through tonight As of 730 AM Thursday, The frontal boundary has pushed into far southern rtes and will continue to push south this morning. Areas of low clouds and fog have deloped across inland areas early this morning and is expected to dissipate in the next couple hours with VFR conditions returning through the rest of the TAF period. Could see an isolated shower develop along southern rtes this afternoon but generally expect dry conditions through most of the region.

Friday through Monday As of 410 AM Thu, Mainly VFR through Saturday. Some sct showers or storms possible on Sat and Sun, with much better chances for showers Sun night into Mon as deep tropical moisture arrives, and better chances for sub VFR conditions developing.


Through Thursday As of 730 AM Thursday, The front will push south of the waters shortly after 12z with N/NE winds around 5-15 kt this morning, becoming NE/E this afternoon, then E 10 kt or less tonight as high pressure migrates off the mid- Atlantic coast. Seas around 2-4 ft this morning will subside to 1-3 ft this afternoon and tonight.

Friday through Monday As of 410 AM Thu, Expect E winds at 10-15 knots winds veer to more SE/S by Friday, then inc 15-20 kt on Sat in response to a re- strengthening of high pressure offshore and increasing land/sea thermal gradient. Fetch of moderately strong southerly winds increases on Sunday, and in response seas will build to 6+ feet esp by Sunday night into Monday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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