Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

712 am EDT Sat Jun 10 2023


High pressure will build in from the east over the weekend. A cold front will impact the area Monday and Monday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Tuesday before the front could lift back northward into our area mid-to-late week.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 0710 Saturday, Leftover patchy shallow fog this morning will continue to dissipate quickly over the next hr leading to a quiet day with conditions typical for early June. The upper level low over New England finally pushes Eward with NEerly upper level flow becoming Werly through the day. Height rises aloft and SFC high pressure transiting the area will allow for mainly sunny skies, although FEW-SCT diurnal CU expected to develop in the afternoon. Haze/smoke from CAN wildfires lingers early, but particulate concentration will be notably lower than Friday as flow aloft becomes more zonal through the day. Calm winds early become predominantly Werly while remaining light this morning, which will keep the seabreeze pinned to the coast through early afternoon. As the high drifts offshore and the seabreeze finally pushes inland, winds will become more Serly late afternoon into the evening. Maxts will be near climo in the mid 80s inland, low 80s coast, upper 70s OBX.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday As of 0400 Saturday, Milder night temp-wise on deck for Sat night with the high offshore leading to persistent, light Serly flow through the overnight period with the afternoon CU field scattering out through the first half of tonight leading to another clear sky night before upper level cloud coverage increases again in the early morning from SW to NE ahead of the shortwave approaching from the W. Lows around 60 most, upper 60s~70 beaches.

Long Term

Sunday through Friday As of 3 AM Sat, Dry and warm conditions will persist Sunday with high pressure over the area. Then, a cold front will likely bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area Monday and Monday night. Conditions then turn briefly calmer on Tuesday with only some isolated showers possible, but unsettled weather then returns Wednesday through the end of the week as deep moisture returns and a series of upper level impulses move through the area.

Sunday, Mostly sunny conditions expected Sunday with dry high pressure off the coast. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s across the forecast area.

Sunday Night through Tuesday, Stacked low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes early next week, with the associated slow moving cold front bringing widespread showers and storms to ENC. Ahead of the front, moisture will increase quickly overnight Sunday into Monday, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the area from the south and west. The arrival of the front will coincide with daytime heating, and growing instability Monday afternoon will help fuel the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms which will continue into Monday night as the front crosses through the area. There will also be a threat for severe weather as deep layer wind shear increases to 30+ kts, which will help organize convective clusters in the presence of ample instability. The main concerns will be damaging wind gusts due to micro-bursts and medium to large hail, while lack of updraft longevity is a potential limiting factor.

The cold front will briefly push through a portion of Eastern NC Tuesday morning before stalling, and then will lift back to the north or dissipate during the afternoon. Drier air over the area, and limited forcing, will lead to just some isolated sea breeze forced showers during the afternoon. Slightly cooler highs expected with readings in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday through Friday, Broad cyclonic flow will continue mid to late week with a deep upper level trough parked over the Eastern US. Locally, strengthening deep SW flow will bring increasing moisture to the area, and a series of upper level impulses moving around the longwave trough will tap into this moisture and bring several periods of showers and thunderstorms to the Carolinas. With large timing differences in the shortwaves present in forecast guidance, with keep broad 30-40% chances for rain each day. High temps will depend heavily on precip coverage, but with increasing low level thicknesses, we could come close to 90 if enough sunshine is seen, otherwise, mid to upper 80s are likely.


11z Saturday through Wednesday Through Saturday As of 0710 Saturday, Light winds and VFR conditions with FEW- SCT fair- weather diurnal CU field developing in the afternoon ahead of late seabreeze which will turn midmorning Werly winds more Serly by the evening. Hrrr smoke models continues to show smoke/haze persisting around ENC today but concentrations are forecast to be less than yesterday and don't expect VIS to drop below VFR. With Serly flow promoting low level mixing through the overnight, not expecting any meaningful fog development at TAF sites.

Sunday through Wednesday As of 345 AM Sat, VFR prevails through Sunday. An approaching cold front could bring lowering ceilings and the potential for flight restrictions Monday afternoon into Monday night, with widespread showers and some thunderstorms also expected. Conditions improve Tuesday, but unsettled weather likely returns midweek.


Through Saturday As of 0400 Saturday, High pressure will transit the coastal waters through the period with winds mainly below 15 kt. Light Werly winds persist through the morning, become Serly around 10-15 kt in afternoon with the center of the high moving offshore. Seabreeze circulation developing late leads to some gustier winds nearshore in the evening. Winds continue to veer through the overnight at 10-15kt. Seas 2ft across all area waters through the day build to 2-3 ft tonight in response to the strengthening Serly flow.

Sunday through Wednesday As of 330 AM Sat, Good boating conditions will continue Sunday with high pressure offshore. Winds will be SSE 10-20 kts, with seas 3-4 ft. Winds increase Monday ahead of a cold front, and Small Craft conditions will likely develop across most of the coastal waters by Monday afternoon. Winds will be SSW 15-25 kts, with seas 3-5 ft. Winds will peak just out ahead of the front late Monday night, and then weaken behind the front Tuesday morning as the front stalls across the area. Winds Tuesday will be mostly 5-15 kts out of the W/SW. Sw winds continue Wednesday at 10-15 kts, while seas remain 3-4 ft.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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