Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

615 pm EDT Sat jul 20 2019

Synopsis

Hot and humid conditions continue through early next week as the area remains between subtropical high pressure offshore and weak troughing inland. A front will approach the area Tuesday before crossing Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing much needed relief from the heat for the second half of the week.

Near Term

Until 6 am Sunday morning As of 615 PM Sat, Latest surface analysis shows a typical summer pattern in NC with sharpening thermal trough over the coastal plain and high pressure offshore. Despite abundant instability this afternoon, no appreciable forcing mechanism appears to be likely to set off convection early this evening. Activity to the west has weakened considerably, while the sea breeze and outflow boundary from western storms remain inactive. Thus have removed PoPs/Wx from early evening forecast. Remainder of the night will see mostly clear skies and sultry conditions. Dangerous Heat Index values will diminish after 00Z only to increase again Sunday afternoon thus a continuation of the Excessive Heat Warnings for the northern tier and Heat Advisories for the southern zones are in place for Sunday.

Lows tonight will be similar to past few nights, mainly in the mid to upper 70s with some low 70s well inland and around 80 along the coast.

Short Term

6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday As of 345 PM Sat, The upper level ridge prevails on Sunday with surface high pressure remaining offshore and promoting SW to WSW flow across the region. Thus similar conditions are expected to today with a suppressed sea breeze and below normal PoPs for the period. Opted to keep the forecast dry with no clear forcing mechanism present for tomorrow.

The SW flow will once again encourage highs into the mid to upper 90s. On the other hand, it will also encourage slightly lower dew points (albeit still above 70 everywhere). Heat indices will once again reach 105+ across the entire region with areas north of U.S. 70 most susceptible to indices of 110 or higher where the warmest temperatures are forecast to overlap with slightly higher dew points. Thus issued an Excessive Heat Warning for areas north of the highway and kept a Heat Advisory south.

Long Term

Sunday night through Saturday As of 335 PM Sat, Oppressive and dangerous heat and humidity persists through Monday, then a slow moving and moist cold front will bring much needed rainfall and relief from the heat wave beginning Tuesday and continuing Wed. More pleasant temps are expected for the remainder of the week with highs mostly in the 80s. Sunday night and Monday, The oppressive heat and humidity continue with sultry lows in the mid to upper 70s (around 80 beaches) and Highs Mon in the mid 90s inland and around 90 coast. This will result in Heat Index values around 105 degrees again in the afternoon with Heat Advisories likely needed for one last day. While the subtropical high remains in control Monday, little to no convection is expected once again, and will carry barely a 20 pop for interior locales as most areas dry.

Tuesday and Wednesday, The upper pattern will undergo a significant change with major amplification of a western ridge and eastern trough. The amplification of the aforementioned trough will drive a cold front towards and through most of E NC by Tue night. Deep moisture convergence ahead of this front looks sufficient enough to justify the continuation of likely POPs Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. A severe threat may be present, as deep layer shear inc to 25-30 kt, and sfc based CAPE's aoa 2,000 J/KG by Tue afternoon. The progression of storms should be fast enough to limit a flood threat, but a couple inches of rain are possible in heavier convective bands. A few locations may reach or briefly exceed 90 degrees but most locations will be in the mid to upper 80s for highs Tue. The front is forecast to move just southeast of the area Tue evening and stall Wed with the boundary being close enough E NC to give coastal areas a decent shot of rain Tue night into Wed and will up PoPs Wed east of Highway 17 to likely with chance west. A drier and much cooler airmass filters into the region behind the front on NE flow with highs in the low 80s ending the long heat wave. Wed night lows finally back to near climo in the 65-70 degree range interior to low/mid 70s beaches.

Thursday through Saturday, Longwave troughing will be present across the Eastern CONUS through late week with surface high pres ridging into the region. Though as is typical for E NC in the heart of the summer, how far south the front remains this period will dictate precip potential. Looks the front, which will be washing out, will be close enough to warrant chance Pops eastern locales Thu and Fri through coverage should be scattered. Sat looking fairly dry attm so will forecast a "silent" 20% PoP. Ne flow is forecast to prevail through the period resulting in pleasantly warm temps and slightly below climo Highs in the 80s and more comfortable TD's mainly in the 60s.

Aviation

22z Saturday through Thursday Through Sunday As of 615 PM Sat, High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Low level mixing overnight will limit fog formation while lack of forcing Sunday should preclude afternoon/evening convective development.

Sunday night through Thursday As of 335 PM Sat, VFR conditions prevail through Mon night with gusty WSW to SW winds. A cold front approaching the area Tuesday will bring widespread showers and storms Tue afternoon through evening, with tempo restrictions to cigs/vsbys. Back to mainly VFR by mid week as NE winds and drier conditions expected vicinity of the TAF sites.

Marine

Through Sunday As of 615 PM Sat, A sharpening of the inland surface trough has led to an increase in southerly flow with speeds expected to remain 15-20 kt through Sunday. Differential heating has resulted in winds gusting at times to 25 kt early this evening. These gusts should taper off only to increase again late Sunday as conditions remain the same the next 24 hours. With the persistent, moderate southerly flow expected to continue, seas are forecast to remain 3-5 ft through Sunday.

Sunday night through Thursday As of 335 PM Sat, Tight gradient ahead of a slow moving cold front will result in enhanced SW flow of 15-25 kt with higher gusts Sunday night into Tue with elevated seas peaking at 5-7 ft late Mon and Mon night (highest outer central waters). The SW winds decrease slightly to 15- 20 kt Tue afternoon with seas 4-6 ft. The front is forecast to move south of the waters by Wed, with NE winds developing but only in the 10-15 kt with seas mostly 2-4 ft Wed and Thu.erm Sunday through Wednesday

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, heat advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195-196-199- 204-205. Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm EDT Sunday for ncz090>092-094- 193>196-198-199-204-205. Excessive heat warning until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203. Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 8 pm EDT Sunday for ncz029-044>047-079>081-203. Marine, none.

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