Key MESSAGE 1, The backdoor cold front is sinking south across the FA and the remaining showers and thunderstorms are working their way off the coast. Cooler and drier air is moving in behind the front.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Tonight's lows will dip to the mid-50s inland and low-60s along the OBX. Below climo highs on Sunday will be in the mid/upper-70s inland and upper-60s/low-70s along the OBX. Dewpoints will plummet as well, making it feel quite refreshing.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Temps will start to rebound on Monday with inland highs around 80 as high pressure moves offshore and SW flow resumes. The next cold front will cross the area late Monday/early Tuesday and bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Good chances for rain with pops in the 60-85% range, peaking Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Some wrap around showers may be in the picture for Tuesday as a low pressure area forms off the front in the offshore waters. Some global guidance is showing a low developing off the GA/SC coast and moving northeast around mid-week, which could lead to PoPs trending higher in future updates. There's still uncertainty in whether or not a low will form, and if it does, its strength and track will greatly impact the precipitation and wind forecast.
18z Saturday through Thursday The backdoor cold front is moving south across the area with clearing skies and gusty NEerly winds moving in behind it. Vfr conditions are expected for the rest of the period with NEerly winds continuing to gust to 15-20+ kt through early tomorrow morning. Winds will relax tomorrow afternoon as they veer to the e.
Outlook: The next chance of showers will be on Monday into Monday evening ahead of another cold front. There's uncertainty in how unsettled the rest of the week will be due to a potential offshore low, which could introduce more showers and thunderstorms to the forecast.
Scas remain in effect for all waters except the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers. The backdoor cold front is moving south across the area and generating a NEerly surge of 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. These conditions will persist overnight with seas building to 5-9 ft. Ne winds will decrease to 10-15 kt tomorrow as they veer to the E through the day with 6 ft seas lingering across the central waters until late Monday.
Outlook: 6 ft seas may linger across the coastal waters between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke until late Monday. Another round of SCA winds and seas are expected to develop on Tuesday with a potential low forming offshore. Hazardous conditions could last through late week, but it's too early to determine specifics.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for amz137. Small craft advisory until 7 pm EDT Sunday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT Monday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Sunday for amz156. Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to noon EDT Sunday for amz158.
