A cold front will move off the coast today with low pressure developing along it, bringing a wintry mix to portions of the area. High pressure will build back over the area mid week. Another low and cold front move in late in the week.
Through tonight As of 3 PM Mon,
Key messages,
- Rain and snow this evening, with light snow accumulations for the northwest counties before midnight. Shortwave trough swings through the Southeast states and cyclogenesis occurs off the Carolina Coast through this eve. A combination of lowering thicknesses, along with column cooling through inc lift/uvv and precip loading will lead to rain changing to a ra/sn mix, possibly mostly snow for our nwrn counties. Latest obs indicate ra/sn line advancing south and east through the nrn parts of NC. Fcst on track with a ra/sn mix by the evening commute time, becoming predominantly snow before precip ends this evening. Snow showers possible as far east as the Hwy 17 corridor from J'ville to New Bern, northward towards Beaufort county, before precip comes to an end. Little to no (<0.5") accums expected outside of the advisory counties of Pitt, Martin, Washington.
Next threat for tonight will be patches of black ice, as temps drop through the 20s late tonight and into Tue AM.
Tuesday As of 3 AM Monday,
Key messages,
- Patchy black ice early Tue. Wet roads from rain and snow tonight become icy, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.
Areas most susceptible to black ice will be elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. Temps will be cold for early December, with highs generally only in the mid 40s for most locales. The good news is that the Sun will finally make an appearance, though brisk northerly breezes will keep it on the cold side.
Tuesday night through Monday As of 3 PM Mon,
Key messages,
- Dry and seasonably cold mid week.
- Another cold front moves through late week, though it appears to pass through on the dry side.
Tuesday night and Wednesday, Dry conditions expected as high pressure builds back in at the surface. Highs warming back into the 50s to near 60 Wed as winds become SW. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed morning.
Thursday through Friday, A couple of northern stream shortwaves push across the area during the latter half of the week but moisture remains quite limited and guidance continues to trend downward with PoPs. At this time, ptype looks to remain all liquid, but pops lowered to only 10%.
Saturday through Monday, Much colder air expected behind the front for next weekend with highs back into the 40s and lows in the 20s, and possibly teens inland on Sunday night.
20z Monday through Saturday As of 2 PM Mon,
Key Messages,
- IFR ceilings and visibilities developing late this afternoon/early evening as rain changes to snow across ENC
- IFR ceilings will hold on through most of tonight, until drier air finally moves in to the area early tomorrow morning and VFR returns
Light rain has developed across most of the airspace early this afternoon as a low pressure system moves across the Carolinas. This has brought MVFR ceilings to most of the area with some locations along the coast remaining VFR for now. As we go through the afternoon, rain will become steadier, and will eventually change to snow across the northern half of ENC, with ceilings dropping to IFR levels. Visibilities will also be reduced where snow mixes in with rain, or completely changes over, and this will vary between 1-4 miles. Snow/rain tapers off late this evening, however low level stratus will be stubborn to dissipate until drier air moves in early tomorrow morning. Vfr conditions will finally return to the airspace from west to east after midnight, and should persist through the rest of tomorrow.
Outlook: VFR conditions return until this weekend.
As of 3 PM Mon,
Key Messages
- Strong winds and dangerous seas expected through tonight.
- Southwest winds increase with Small Craft Advisories expected, with Gales on the Gulf Stream possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Through Tue, A cold front passing through this afternoon with area of low pressure developing along it across the offshore waters bringing strong north to northeast winds through tonight. Continue the Gale warning for all waters except the inland rivers with strong SCA conditions are expected. Seas build up to 7-11 ft across the northern and central waters and 5-9 ft south. Wind diminish fairly quickly Tuesday with seas slowly subsiding through Tuesday night.
Wed, The break in strong winds and high seas is short-lived, as a swrly gradient inc later Wed through Wed night, with speeds of 15-25 kt expected, and 25-35 kt over the warm Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet. Seas build back up to 6-10 ft south of Oregon Inlet.
Thu through Fri, Winds and seas relax as high pres builds back into the region, with NW winds generally 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft.
Nc, winter weather advisory until midnight EST tonight for ncz029- 044-045. Marine, gale warning until 9 pm EST this evening for amz131-230-231. Gale warning until midnight EST tonight for amz135-150. Small craft advisory until 2 am EST Tuesday for amz136-137. Gale warning until 2 am EST Tuesday for amz152-154-156-158.
