As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday,
KEY MESSAGE 1, Increased fire danger statement is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM across the interior coastal plain.
No change with regards to the forecast or the ongoing burn ban, as NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Despite moistening return flow which has brought MinRHs levels above usual IFD criteria, given the ongoing drought conditions, dry fuels, and strengthening afternoon winds, another IFD has been collaborated for today through NCFS and neighboring NWS offices. The IFD is in effect for 11 AM to 7 PM for the interior coastal plain.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through the first part of the weekend.
Dry and warming forecast through the remainder of the work- week, with model consensus keeping the high anchored offshore, precluding any precis associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast. Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids, will be later in the week (THU-SAT). This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. Adding additional support for the drier scenario is climatological guidance (CFC), which shows a strong signal for below normal precipitation through the end of the week. Consequently, NBM continues to keep PoPs below mentionable all the way through FRI. Above normal temperatures will continue this week and into the weekend, with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches.
KEY MESSAGE 3, A cold front will push through the area late this weekend into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines.
A cold front will approach the area Sunday, likely moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday. Increasing shower chances Sunday and Monday, along with isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. Rain chances along the Sern coast may linger into mid-week with a low expected to develop and travel along the front, passing somewhere off the ENC coast. Latest 00z/01 deterministic guidance continues to keep the low far enough offshore to keep showers off the coast, but will allow NBM's slight chance PoPs to remain in the grids for now. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early next week.
06z Wednesday through Sunday As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday,
Not much change in the TAF forecast across ENC. High pressure remains centered offshore with primarily VFR conditions through the period. Into this morning, steady SW winds at about 5 kts are forecast. Given the similar setup as compared to last night, have introduced a TEMPO group for some ground fog (MIFG) at OAJ with the expectation that some minor reductions in visibility are possible here. Either way no impact to operations is forecast here. As we get into the mid to late morning hours SW’rly winds will increase slightly to 8-12 kts with gusts up around 20 kts with slightly higher winds across the OBX. While winds will primarily remain SW’rly today, a shift to a S’rly direction behind the seabreeze is forecast this afternoon across all terminals with winds once again lowering to about 5 kts and becoming SW’rly tonight. Vfr conditions continue into tonight as diurnal Cu field at about 4-5 kft sets up around 14/15Z across ENC with diurnal Cu field quickly diminishing near sunset.
Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Mainly VFR, best chance for sub VFR late Sun into Mon with rain associated with an incoming front.
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday,
Rinse and repeat. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the work- week, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place through the period. Expect 15-25kt SWerly winds and 4-5 ft seas during the afternoon and evenings, winds calming some to 10-15kt, allowing seas to lay down overnight and through the early morning until the thermal gradient strengthens again in the afternoon. Gulf Stream waters, far Eern portions of Pamlico Sound, and Croatan and Roanoke Sounds most likely to see gusts up to 25kt, but not strong enough to warrant the issuance of a <6hr long SCA every afternoon. This cycle repeats into THU morning.
Outlook (Late Weekend into Early next week): Winds become more Serly THU and FRI and relax some, generally 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt during peak heating. Fropa is expected late SUN into MON and represents the next best chance of SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. Front will be accompanied with showers and tstorms what PoPs remaining in- place potential into middle of next week with an area of low pressure developing off the FL coast and traveling along the boundary well out to sea.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
