Key MESSAGE 1, Your Mother's Day forecast continues to suggest the area remains mostly dry with subsidence aloft in the wake yesterday's shortwave. With that said, light background winds and clearing skies will allow for the development of a seabreeze. Leftover low level moisture will be enough to lead to a diurnal cu field and the seabreeze may provide enough convergence to lead to some light showers along the boundary. Bulk of guidance has a dry forecast for today with a few HiRes models showing the afternoon seabreeze shower threat. Carrying SChc of showers and just below mentionable probability of thunder. Maxts in the mid 80s inland, mid to upper 70s OBX and areas along the immediate coast cooled by the seabreeze.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Not much change in forecast thinking for now, though we have seen some trends in the 12Z guidance. Decent agreement on next stronger shortwave and attendant cold front moving through the region Monday. This system could have fairly strong dynamics with sharp-ish troughing aloft pivoting over ECONUS to become more negatively tilted as it approaches. Front currently forecast to enter the Nern extent of the FA around sunrise and pushing S toward the Crystal Coast in the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm threat is possible with this system, with the main threats strong to potentially damaging wind gusts, some potential for hail in strongest storms, and heavy downpours. Instability will be maximized in the convergence zone between the seabreeze and the cold front, generally E of HWY17 and S of HWY70. Cape values differ widely between available guidance, on the order of 0.5-1.5kJ/KG with the difference between models mainly being frontal timing. Event total QPF has decreased for far inland and Nern zones that are away from the greatest instability and convergence, light showers with little vertical development early, a tenth to a quarter of an inch. The area mentioned above could see in excess of an inch of precip under stronger cells. Spc has maintained a marginal threat (level 1/5) for the a similar area as yesterday's outlook. Should the timing of the front slow any, would expect the outlook area to increase with more heating providing more instability as well as greater upper level support for storms as the troughing aloft is currently forecast to lag behind FROPA a few hours. Stout CAA out of the N behind the front (strongest winds over coast, 20-25kt gusts) will bring in cool air and keep skies mostly clear into WED. Maybe upper 40s, but most likely low 50 Mins and low 70s TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 3, A stacked low cutting across the Sern extent of the Great Lakes and high pressure migrating offshore brings warm and moist air across the Carolinas mid week ahead of the next front set to cross the area around the Thursday time frame. Will need to watch this system for severe potential as well.
12z Sunday through Thursday Several observation sites across ENC have shown IFR/LIFR conditions (mainly due to BR/FG) over the past several hours. However, airport webcams suggest this is more of a ground fog phenomena, and not a deep layer of impactful fog. Taf amendments have been made to try to best convey what is ongoing, and how VIS is expected to evolve through this morning. Vfr conditions are expected to prevail from about 12/13z onwards through the remainder of the day. By this afternoon, a FEW/SCT CU layer may develop along the seabreeze, along with a southerly wind shift. The risk of TSRA along the seabreeze appears very low today.
Later tonight, low clouds may begin to increase in advance of an approaching cold front. However, guidance differ on the time of arrival of these low clouds. If the clouds are slower to arrive, there may even be an opportunity for reduced VIS in BR/FG once again.
Outlook: A cold front will sag slowly south through ENC on Monday, bringing a chance of SHRA and TSRA and sub-VFR conditions. A northerly wind shift will occur with the cold front, with a period of gusty NE winds expected by Monday afternoon. After Monday, a lower impact period for aviation appears likely on Tuesday. The next chance of sub-VFR conditions is then expected mid-week as the next weather system moves through with a chance of SHRA and TSRA in the WED/THU timeframe.
Best boating day this weekend today. Buoys currently show seas 3-4ft@5-7sec. These seas will subside through the day with easing winds through the morning, generally Werly becoming light and variable before turning Serly 5-10kt this afternoon these easing winds will allow the 1ft@5sec wind chop out of the SSW on top of the background swell to fall out further calming seas; 2-3ft@7-8sec out of the SE all the way out to 60+nm. Winds become SW-W at 10-15 kts tonight. Waters inside of ~40nm expected to remain shower and tstorm free though inland rivers may see some seabreeze shower activity, 15-20% chance.
Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): SWerly winds strengthen some Sunday night into Monday ahead of next fropa with SCA conditions becoming more likely with post frontal northerly flow of 25+ kt MON evening and into Tuesday. Scas have been issued for all coastal waters and Pamlico Sound this forecast cycle. Further expansion of SCAs to Nern rivers and sounds remains possible, but current forecast is more marginal over these waters currently. Gale potential has decreased some for offshore waters overnight MON into early TUE morning, but the threat for brief periods of gale force gusts does remain over offshore waters S of Cape Hatteras. Winds diminish later Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure briefly reestablishes itself. Mon's front lifts back N through the region mid-week ahead of the next front to cross late WED/early THU.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 1 pm Monday to 11 am EDT Tuesday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 11 am Monday to 6 am EDT Tuesday for amz150. Small craft advisory from 2 pm Monday to 2 pm EDT Tuesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 4 pm Monday to 6 pm EDT Tuesday for amz156-158.
