High pressure remains ridging in from the southwest through today while a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. The cold front moves through the area tomorrow, with much colder conditions returning for early next week. A low pressure system will move across the East Coast mid to late next week.
Through today As of 3 AM Sat,
Key Messages,
- Dense fog with visibilities of 1/4 mi or less will continue across southern NC early this morning, and is likely to spread further across ENC
- Record highs possible again this afternoon with readings approaching 80 inland, and into the lower 70s along the coast
Dense fog continues across the southern NC coast early this morning due to warm, moist flow off the cool Atlantic. Fog is likely to spread north and east through the rest of the morning hours, and may linger into this afternoon across portions of enc.
Record highs are possible again today, but will be contingent on sunshine returning (in some capacity) this afternoon. Clouds and fog (and even an isolated shower) will hang around through at least late morning with temperatures remaining mostly steady in the low to mid 60s, but once clouds clear, temps will quickly jump into the 70s thanks to well above normal low level thicknesses. Highs are expected to reach the upper 70s inland, and the lower 70s along the coast.
Of note for the OBX, an anomalously large Gulf Stream eddy has brought upper 60s water temps to the shores of Ocracoke and southern Hatteras Islands which has temperatures at near record levels early this morning. If skies clear as expected this afternoon here, the high temp record (70 degrees) at Cape Hatteras will likely be shattered as readings climb into the low to perhaps even mid 70s.
Tonight through 6 pm Sunday As of 3 AM Sat,
Key Messages,
- Light rain moves in early tomorrow morning as a cold front crosses through the state
- Early morning highs (60s) Sunday as temps fall through the day (50s) behind the front thanks to strong cold air advection
A cold front will move into the NC coastal plain early tonight with rain chances increasing overnight to 40-60% as the front moves NW to SE across ENC. Up to a 1/4" of rain is possible, with the highest amounts likely north of US 64. Rain will exit the OBX quickly early Sunday afternoon as colder and drier air rushes in behind the front.
High temps will occur early Sunday morning (low to mid 60s) with temps dropping through the 50s the rest of the day as strong CAA develops.
Sunday night through Friday As of 3 AM Sat,
Key Messages
- Return to colder temperatures early next week with dry conditions
- Low pressure system mid to late next week will bring next chance of rain, with some potential (20-30%) for a wintry mix or light snow as it moves offshore
Sunday night, In the post-frontal air mass on Sunday night, temps will tank to the mid to upper 20s across the coastal plain and 30s along the beaches.
Early next week, Colder temperatures and dry weather is forecast for early next week as high pressure moves over the Southeast and a deep upper trough remains over the NE CONUS. Highs 45-50 for Mon, then into the 50s to low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. Cold lows in the 20s for interior zones Mon night, then moderating into the 30s through mid week.
Late next week, Building signal that a low pressure system will move across the East Coast Thursday or Friday, but guidance continues to struggle with the strength, location, and timing of the system. Periods of rain are possible, and there is potential (20-30%) for a changeover to a wintry mix or snow as the system pulls away from the coast. Still too early for any discussion on impacts or accumulation potential.
06z Saturday through Wednesday As of 1250 AM Saturday,
Key Messages
- Fog and stratus continue through this morning, with stratus potentially lingering into the afternoon
- Another round of low stratus possible Saturday night into early Sunday morning
High pressure is offshore and we are in the warm sector of a low north of New England. This is allowing for moist southerly flow to bring dewpoints up to the low 60s across the region. This warm, most advection over colder SSTs has produced an expansive swath of sea fog along the Crystal Coast, Neuse River, and Pamlico sound as of 1230 AM. With little pattern change through the early morning hours, expect the sea fog to continue expanding, bringing visibilities less than 1 SM to coastal terminals. As we move further inland, visibilities gradually improve for now, with VFR conditions observed at PGV and ISO. As the morning progresses, inland locales should also see reduced visibilities and lower ceilings, although the severity (MVFR vs IFR) is uncertain. While we do have a very moist airmass, a mix of high cloud cover and winds lingering at around 5 knots inland currently are keeping visibilities high. How the winds respond to a clearing of clouds moving in from SE NC in the next 1-3 hours will dictate if we drop to IFR inland or not. Closer to the coast, OAJ and EWN are expected to reach IFR/LIFR (OAJ having already done so). The mix of fog and low stratus could cause sub-VFR conditions to linger beyond sunrise, with the worst case scenario having lower ceilings linger into the afternoon. With the ample mixing and warm temps expected today, this seems like a less likely scenario, and what we might see instead is IFR/MVFR conditions becoming a mix of VFR/MVFR after 10-11am.
Saturday evening into Saturday night we should see another round of low stratus ahead of an approaching cold front. Pressure gradient should be strong enough to keep winds elevated and prevent fog formation. Href has a 50-70% chance of IFR ceilings during this time period along the coast, decreasing to 10-30% inland.
Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions possible again Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of and along an approaching cold front. High pressure builds back into the area early next week bringing a much drier airmass and expect pred VFR conditions with limited fog potential.
As of 3 AM Sat,
Key Messages,
- Dense sea fog will continue overnight, and likely linger across some of the marine area through this afternoon
- Gale Force winds expected over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet tonight and tomorrow morning as SW winds increase ahead of a cold front
- A second round of Gale conditions will develop Sunday afternoon as NW winds surge behind a secondary cold front. These Gales will more widespread, covering all the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound at least
Favorable conditions for sea fog development will continue early this morning and into this afternoon across portions of the marine area, with visibilities down to 1/4 mi or less at times.
Winds remain fairly light through this morning, but will increase this afternoon to SW 15-25 kts. Sw winds increase further to 20-30 kts tonight with gusts 35-40 kts over the warmer coastal waters. The cold front will cross through ENC Sunday morning becoming NW at 15-25 kts. A secondary front will move through in the afternoon, and behind this feature winds will increase to NW 25-35 kts with gusts 35-40 kts into Monday morning.
Seas will be 3-5 ft through this afternoon, and then will increase to 6-9 ft tonight. Seas remain elevated Sunday at 5-8 ft, and will begin to decrease Sunday night.
Outlook: Sub-SCA conditions are expected until mid to late week when another low pressure system will bring increased winds and seas.
Nc, dense fog advisory until 8 am EST this morning for ncz081-092- 094-193>196-198-199. Marine, small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 6 am EST Monday for amz131-230-231. Dense fog advisory until 7 am EST this morning for amz135-137- 158. Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 pm EST Sunday for amz135-150. Gale warning from 2 pm Sunday to 1 am EST Monday for amz135- 150. Small craft advisory from 11 am Sunday to 6 am EST Monday for amz136-137. Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 3 am EST Monday for amz152-154-156. Gale warning from 3 am Sunday to 1 am EST Monday for amz158.
