Key MESSAGE 1, NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Will hold off for now on IFD issuance today based on NCFS thresholds (MinRH <= 40% AND wind gusts >= 20mph).
KEY MESSAGE 2, Dry and warming forecast through the remainder of the work- week, with model consensus keeping the high anchored offshore, precluding any precip associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast. Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids, will be later in the week (THU-SAT). This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with high temps mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches. Mints generally around 60.
KEY MESSAGE 3, A cold front will approach the area Sunday, moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday. Increasing shower chances Sunday and Sunday night, along with isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. Nbm has caught on to the trend in deterministic guidance of the low pressure system expected to develop and travel along the front early next week, passing far enough offshore to keep the area mostly dry early next week. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early next week.
12z Thursday through Monday Only recent change in the aviation forcast is the emergence of some ground fog (MIFG) at OAJ this morning. Either way, this ground fog is forecast to have little impact to operations and should dissipate within the next hour or so. For now, will have a TEMPO group in the OAJ TAF between 12Z and 13Z to account for this. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to persist across ENC through the entire forecast period as high pressure centered offshore keeps the area dry. Much like the previous few days, a diurnal Cu field will set up by mid to late morning and spread inland this afternoon. Little in the way of impact is forecast from this Cu field as a SCT deck at about 3.5-4.5 kft is forecast before clouds dissipate this evening. Clear skies then expected Thursday night. Otherwise light SW'rly winds at about 5-10 kts are currently noted. Expect winds to increase slightly across ENC by this afternoon to 10-15 kts with gusts around 15-20 kts. Seabreeze will bring a slight shift in the winds with winds turning to a SSE'rly direction behind the seabreeze. Winds once again become SW'rly tonight and decrease down to about 5 kts or less.
Outlook (Friday through Monday): Mainly VFR, best chance for sub VFR late Sun into Mon with rain associated with an incoming front.
Latest obs show SSW winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the first half of the weekend, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place through the period.
Outlook (Saturday into Tuesday): SSW winds will increase through the day Sat into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Fropa is expected late SUN into MON, which is the next best chance of SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. Front will be accompanied with showers and tstorms. N-NE winds will develop behind the front and continue through mid next week.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
