Key MESSAGE 1, Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored offshore and cold front moving towards the Appalachians early this morning. The cold front and shortwave will continue to push eastward today while weak low pressure develops along the front. Modest instability (ML CAPEs 2-2500 J/kg) and bulk shear (25-40 kt) will support organized convection this afternoon and evening. Spc has upgraded eastern NC to a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms (lvl 2/5) today (2pm-9pm). The main threat will be damaging wind gusts, however a localized tornado threat could develop wherever locally backed near sfc winds occur. Multi cell storms likely to develop initially with the threat possibly morphing into a qlcs ahead of the front. Moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible, which could lead to a minor flood threat, best chances for areas north of Hwy 264. Front will sweep offshore around or shortly after sunset this evening, with precip grad ending from west to east.
KEY MESSAGE 2, With the return SWerly flow, hot and humid conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices, though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week. Brief break from the heat expected on Wed behind the fropa, when afternoon highs only in the low 80s OBX zones to upper 80s inland with lowered RH's as well. Heating back up Thu into the weekend. Typical summertime diurnal convective chances return Sat into early next week.
16z Tuesday through Saturday VFR conditions prevail at the terminals early this morning. Sufficient S to SW winds should curb fog development. There is also limited chances for sub-VFR stratus with HREF probs less than 20 percent, best chances along the coast. A cold front will approach the area today, pushing across terminals late afternoon into the evening hours. Sw winds will gust around 20-30 kt ahead of the front, becoming northerly and diminishing after fropa. Chances for showers and thunderstorms also increase through the afternoon bringing a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and lightning the primary threats with the storms. This may bring temporary sub-VFR conditions to the terminals, with best chances between 18-00z.
Outlook (Wed through Sat): Pred VFR conditions expected. Mostly dry for Wed and Thu with high pres rebuilding. Next precip chance on Fri night into Sat with another system approaching.
Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt north of Hatteras and 10-20 kt south, with seas 2-5 ft. Ssw winds will increase through the day ahead of an approaching cold front and low pressure, peaking at 15-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt this afternoon/early evening with seas building to 4-7 ft. Scas continue for the nearshore coastal waters, Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and Neuse/Bay Rivers. The front will move through the waters tonight with flow becoming NW-N 10-20 kt behind it, along with grad subsiding seas. Sct showers and storms expected in the afternoon and evening, diminishing quickly behind the front, though some lighter showers wrapping around the departing low will be possible through around midnight.
Outlook (Wed through Sat): Moderate N-NE winds Wed, grad veering becoming light Wed night into Thu. S-SW winds return Thu night into Fri though looks to remain below SCA conditions. Sw winds increase to 10-20 kt Sat.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-204-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 1 am EDT Wednesday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz137. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Wednesday for amz150-152- 154. Small craft advisory until midnight EDT tonight for amz156-158. Small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz231.
