Key MESSAGE 1, High pressure briefly builds in tonight across the Mid-Atlantic before pushing out to sea. This will bring light to calm winds and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s across ENC tonight. High cirrus will also continue to stream in across the Carolinas through Tue morning in association with a low pressure system in the Gulf given the steady SW flow aloft. As we get into Tue a dry cold front will then track across the Carolinas and push offshore Tuesday night with the low pressure in the Gulf then riding ENE'wards along this boundary on Wed. At the same time, a strong high pressure ridge will build into the Northeast. The combination of the strong high and departing front/ low will bring a rather strong pressure gradient to the area bringing cool NE'rly winds to ENC. Given the direction of the winds this will bring a relatively cool maritime airmass over ENC keeping temps below avg through Wed as high temps only get into the upper 50s to 60s on Tue and then mid 50s to 60s on Wed. Expect a warming trend from Thurs onwards as low level thicknesses gradually increase, though NE'rly winds will likely continue into this weekend.
18z Monday through Saturday High clouds across rtes through the TAF period. Nnw winds becoming light and variable as high pressure becomes centered over the area. The probability for impactful fog tonight is less than 10% with the dry airmass in place and a thick shield of high clouds expected, minimizing radiational cooling. Some shallow, non- impactful fog may show up in observations with the light to calm winds with recent rain, so have added 6SM MIFG for EWN, OAJ, PGV. Tuesday winds continue out of the north behind a reinforcing cold front moving through in the morning.
Outlook: Pred VFR expected Tuesday afternoon through Friday with high pressure over the area.
Relatively benign boating conditions as compared to previous days are currently noted across our waters. Obs currently show 5-15 kt NE winds and gusts up to 15-20 kts with 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters as high pressure briefly builds into the area. This high pressure system will quickly push offshore and out to sea tonight bringing a brief period of light and variable winds to our waters before a cold front begins to approach and track across the area. The front is forecast to push offshore by Tue afternoon and continue south Tue night. While at the same time, low pressure currently in the Gulf eventually rides along this front and a strong high pressure ridge builds in from the north. The combination of all these features will bring rapidly deteriorating marine conditions to our waters Tue night into Wed. Winds will quickly become N-NE'rly and increase to 20-30 kts with gusts up around 30-35 kts across our waters bringing a mix of gale force and small craft advisory level winds for our waters. Currently have a gale watch up for the coastal waters from Surf City up to Oregon Inlet and across the Pamlico Sound and Neuse River as these areas have a higher chance to see 35+ kt wind gusts Tue night into Wed with small craft advisories everywhere else as wind gusts should remain closer to 30 kts here. Will note, there is larger than normal uncertainty in the threat for gale force winds Tue night so while gale watches are currently up could see an upgrade to small craft advisory or gale warnings depending on forecast trends. Seas will also build given the elevated winds to 6-10 ft.
Outlook: Once these hazardous conditions develop expect continued strong NE winds at 15-20 kts with gusts up around 25-30 kts across our waters from Wed evening into the end of the week as the pressure gradient will remain pinched between the aforementioned high and front/low. Seas will remain 6+ ft into the weekend as well. While Gales will have likely come to an end by Wed afternoon, SCA's will continue into the weekend at least across our coastal waters.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 7 pm Tuesday to 11 pm EDT Wednesday for amz131-230-231. Gale watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for amz135-137. Small craft advisory from 11 pm Tuesday to 5 pm EDT Wednesday for amz136. Small craft advisory from 7 pm Tuesday to 2 pm EDT Friday for amz150. Gale watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for amz152-154. Gale watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for amz156-158.
