Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1010 pm EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Synopsis

Ridge of high pressure will remain over the area through tomorrow, with warming temps and dry weather. Then a dry cold front will cross through Tuesday with high pressure building back in through the rest of the work week into next weekend.

Near Term

Rest of tonight As of 1010 PM Sun, Fcst on track and no changes needed.

Prev discussion, As of 7 PM Sun, No changes to ongoing fcst, with overnight lows right on target for the 3rd/4th week of Sep, in the low/mid 60s away from the coast, and around 70 beaches.

Prev discussion, As of 200 PM Sun, A picture perfect September day continues with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and modest humidity levels. Temps have climbed into the low 80s across the area, and will continue to rise a few more degrees into the mid to even upper 80s in many spots. Then tonight, mostly calm and clear conditions will lead to great radiational cooling conditions, which will allow temps to drop into the low 60s inland (isolated upper 50s), and the mid to upper 60s closer to the coast.

Short Term

Monday As of 200 PM Sun, High pressure will continue to ridge into the area from the east tomorrow, and with low level heights slightly higher expect temps a couple degrees warmer, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s inland, and the low 80s right along the coast.

Long Term

Monday night through Sunday As of 200 PM Sunday, A robust shortwave crosses the area Monday night into Tuesday with an attendant cold front moving across the area Tuesday. Models have varied with the timing of the front over the past several model cycles so confidence in the timing isn't that high. Moisture still looks limited however with best dynamics staying north of the area and guidance continues to show little to no precip and will keep minimal PoPs in the forecast. Temps are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal through Tuesday.

Dry and warm conditions continue through the rest of the week as high pressure builds back into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with near zonal flow aloft. The high then slides offshore Wednesday night and Thursday with a ridge building aloft bringing additional warming. A backdoor cold front approaches the area late in the week and may push into the area Friday, though guidance has not in best agreement with how far south the front will push. Moisture and dynamics remain limited and guidance is primarily dry so keeping PoPs low. Temps expected to be several degrees above normal much of the period and could see high around 90 inland Thursday and Friday. The exception being NE section/OBX if the aforementioned front pushes into the area bringing onshore flow.

Aviation

02z Monday through Friday Through tomorrow afternoon As of 7 PM Sun, Excellent flying conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure remains over the area. Though good radiational conditions will exist again overnight, fog is not expected at this time, with only a shallow layer of moisture present (though some isolated areas of ground fog are possible). Vfr conditions continue tomorrow with light southerly flow developing and mostly sunny skies once again.

Monday night through Thursday As of 205 PM Sunday, Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term with high pressure dominating much of the period. Could see patchy shallow ground fog during the early morning hours as good radiational cooling conditions will be present. A cold front is progged to push across rtes Tuesday but moisture will be limited and precip chances remain low.

Marine

Through tomorrow evening As of 210 PM Sun, Decent boating conditions will exist through tomorrow night as seas remain 3 to 5 feet between decreasing swell leftover from Humberto, and approaching swell from Tropical Storm Jerry. Winds will eventually pick up out of the south this evening around 5-10 kts (10-15 kts over the northern waters), and this will continue into tomorrow, with winds strengthening to 10-15 kts everywhere by tomorrow afternoon.

Monday night through Thursday As of 220 PM Sunday, A cold front is progged to push across the waters Tuesday with winds becoming N to NE around 5-15 kt. High pressure migrates across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with wind around 10 kt gradually veering to E to SE by late in the day. Winds veer to SW and increase to 10-15 kt Wednesday night and Thursday.

Seas will be around 2-4 ft Monday, then build to 4-6 ft Monday night through Tuesday night as swell from TC Jerry move into the waters. Seas are expected to subside back to 2-4 ft Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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