Low pressure continues to pull away to the northeast early this morning as a stalled front drifts farther offshore. High pressure builds in stronger today and into the weekend.
Through today As of 230 AM Thursday, Upper trough over the eastern CONUS will slowly shift eastward today with sfc high pressure building in from the northwest and the front that has been stalled off the coast pushes farther offshore. Widespread stratus with isolated light showers and drizzle continues across the region this morning with abundant moisture trapped below the low level inversion. Conditions gradually improve late morning and afternoon with clouds lifting with some partial clearing expected this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers may continue through the afternoon as low level lapse rates increase and a subtle 850mb trough slides south across the area, but accumulations will be light. Temps will be a few degrees below normal once again with highs in the upper 70s to around 80.
Tonight As of 230 AM Thursday, High pressure continues to build into the area tonight and will continue to see clearing skies overnight. Isolated showers may linger across southern sections early evening but will end quickly. Lows expected in the low 60s inland to mid to upper 60s along the coast.
Friday through Wednesday As of 3 PM Wednesday,
Key Messages
- High pressure leads to drier conditions inland
There are some indications of a weak low forming along the stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast this coming weekend into early next week as a deep positively tilted trough moves through. It is too soon to tell what impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence on the timing, track, and intensity of the low should it form. At the minimum, winds should pick up a notch thanks to the tightened pressure gradient. This results in a higher degree of uncertainty for the forecast this weekend onwards.
06z Thursday through Monday Through tonight As of 2 AM Thursday,
Key Messages
- Widespread IFR conditions through mid morning lifting to MVFR through mid afternoon.
Moist, cyclonic flow around departing low pressure will continue to support stratus across rtes through much of the day. Widespread IFR cigs has developed at most terminals early this morning which will continue through mid morning, then lifting to MVFR through mid afternoon, further lifting to VFR by late afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible today but precip amounts will be light. Pred VFR expected tonight. Nly winds around 5-10 kt continues today.
Friday through Monday As of 3 PM Wednesday, Generally VFR flight conditions expected through the long term, with gusty N/NE winds along the coast.
Through Thursday As of 3 AM Thursday,
Key Messages,
- Small Craft conditions continue north of Ocracoke Inlet through tonight for elevated seas.
High pressure builds in from the north through the short term with the frontal boundary off the coast pushing farther offshore. Northerly winds around 10-20 kt will persist through the short term. Seas around 4-6 ft northern waters and 2-5 ft southern waters. Nwps remains slightly underdone with waves across the northern waters and followed closer to NBM in this area which has seas dropping below 6 ft off the NRN OBX this evening and across the central waters late tonight.
Friday through Monday As of 3 PM Wednesday,
Key Messages:
-Gusty northerly winds continue through the long term
-Small Craft Advisory conditions return for the weekend
-High uncertainty in the marine forecast this weekend onwards
Trough strengthens offshore, maybe resulting in a weak low, as we approach the weekend. This may result in gusty north/northeasterly winds 25-30kt late Friday into the weekend. However, winds and waves are highly dependent on strength, location, and track of low, should it even develop. As a result, higher than normal level of uncertainty with the magnitude of the winds at the end of the long term period.
Nc, coastal flood advisory until 1 pm EDT this afternoon for ncz195-196-199. Beach hazards statement from 7 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz203-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 10 pm EDT this evening for amz150. Small craft advisory until 6 am EDT Friday for amz152-154.
