High pressure centered over the area will slide offshore this afternoon with a warm front lifting northward through the Carolinas late today and tonight. A brief warm up and the next best chance of light rain Monday ahead of a stout arctic cold front that will push through the area late Monday. Wintry temps return as we move into the middle of the week with a dry cold front set to cross late-week.
Today As of 1 AM Sunday, High pressure centered along the Eastern Seaboard this morning will gradually shift offshore this afternoon while mid level ridging build aloft. Skies will be variably cloudy with stcu advecting into the area from offshore and high clouds spilling over the ridge aloft but not expecting any precip. Temps will be a few degrees above climo with highs expected in the mid 50s to around 60, warmest southern sections.
Tonight As of 1 AM Sunday, Partly to mostly cloudy skies expected tonight as southerly flow bring increasing WAA ahead of an Arctic front approaching from the west but precip chances remain low. Low temps in the low to mid 50s will be reached during the evening then will see temps slowly increase overnight as gradients tighten ahead of the front.
Monday through Saturday As of 1 AM Sunday,
Key Messages,
- Warm and breezy with scattered showers Monday ahead of an Arctic Front
- A strong Arctic front passes through late Monday with well below normal temps Tuesday into Wednesday.
- Dry with moderating temps for the latter half of the work week. Monday and Monday night, Breezy southerly flow continues ahead of an Arctic front that will push across the area late Monday afternoon and evening bringing wind gusts around 20-30 mph. This will bring a modest warm up with temps climbing into the low to mid 70s inland by early afternoon with 60s along the coast. Moisture and dynamics are limited with this system with and only expect a brief period of deeper saturation during the afternoon just ahead of the front when we have the best chance for showers across the region. Clearing skies and strong CAA develops behind the front with gusty NW winds. Temps will fall steadily overnight with low reaching the upper 20s inland to low to mid 30s coastal sections with wind chill temps in the upper teens to lower 20s towards daybreak.
Tuesday and Wednesday, Arctic high pressure ridges into the area mid week with cyclonic flow persisting across the eastern CONUS bringing mainly clear skies and cold temps. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the coldest period of the week with highs in the mid 40s and low in the mid 20s. The airmass begins to moderate Wednesday with highs around 50s.
Thursday through Saturday, A series of weak shortwave will push through the area for the latter half of the work week bringing periods of mid and high clouds but deeper moisture will be lacking and expect dry condition to prevail. A dry front will push through the area Thursday night and stall south of the area Friday with high pressure building into the area Friday into Saturday. The upper trough begins to lift out late in the week with a southern stream shortwave approaching the area over the weekend. Guidance indicating low pressure developing along the stalled front off the Southeast coast over the weekend and could see a few showers lifting into the area depending in the track of the low.
10z Sunday through Thursday As of 525 AM Sun,
Key Messages
- MVFR CIGs likely to continue along the Outer Banks through mid morning
- Sub-VFR conditions and LLWS likely to develop overnight
VFR conditions currently across TAF sites early this morning, while mid and high clouds continue to stream in. Ceilings around 5-10 kft will gradually spread across the forecast area through the day as winds veer. Ceilings will continue to lower this evening and overnight, likely becoming MVFR along with the threat for brief patchy fog inland. Llws also likely to develop overnight.
Outlook: Periods of sub-VFR CIGs will be likely Monday with periods of light rain ahead of the approaching cold front. A period of gusty southwest winds looks likely Monday, with gusts 20-25 kt. Vfr conditions to return late Monday afternoon and Monday night. Breezy W-NW winds expected Tuesday.
As of 130 AM Sunday,
Key Messages,
- SCA continues today and tonight for elevated seas north of Ocracoke Inlet
- A strong Arctic front will push through the waters late Monday bringing a period of strong SCA to low end Gale Force conditions
N to NE winds have diminished overnight as high pressure builds into the area but 5-7 ft seas persist north of Ocracoke Inlet through the day today and continuing across the outer portions of the central waters tonight.
The high slides offshore tonight into Monday with south to southwesterly winds increasing ahead of an Arctic Front. Low end SCA possible across the sounds and rivers and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet where cooler waters will limit mixing but Gale Force conditions will be possible south of Oregon Inlet where better mixing will occur near the warmer coastal waters. The front is progged to push across the waters late Monday/Monday evening with strong NW winds developing bringing a period of strong SCA conditions and potentially a brief period of Gale Force across most waters Monday night. Seas are progged to build up to 6-10 ft Monday and Monday night.
Conditions expected to drop below SCA criteria by late Tuesday with W-NW flow around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4 ft Wednesday and Thursday.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 6 pm EST this evening for amz150. Small craft advisory until 10 am EST Monday for amz152-154. Gale watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for amz152-154-156-158.
