Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

602 am EST Sat Jan 28 2023


High pressure remains overhead tonight, eventually pushing offshore tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. A more active pattern is then expected next week with multiple systems impacting ENC. The first will be a cold front which will move through the area Sunday night into Monday. Another frontal boundary is then forecast to affect the area around midweek with a third system potentially impacting the area late next week.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 600 AM Saturday, High pressure will crest over the area today then move off of the coast tonight. Dry weather will continue today with sunny skies for most of today giving way to increasing high clouds late today. Temps will moderate with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s as weak southerly return flow develops late.

Short Term

Sunday through 6 am Sunday As of 600 AM Saturday, As the surface high drifts off the coast tonight a weak trough of low pressure will form just off of the coast. Convergence along this boundary will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers which should remain just off the coast so will continue with a dry forecast. High clouds will continue over the area but with light winds, should be enough radiational cooling to allow for low temps to reach the mid to upper 30s inland and low to mid 40s coast.

Long Term

Sunday through Friday As of 330 AM Saturday, Clouds increase Sunday as a frontal system approaches from the NW. Low pressure then develops along the front over the Gulf states and lifts across the NC coast late Sunday night into Monday morning. Sunday is looking dry during the day but precip chances increase Sunday evening and continue categorical pops after midnight. Above normal temps expected Sunday and Monday.

High pressure briefly build in Monday night into Tuesday but a progressive and wet pattern continues through the week with near zonal mid level flow across the eastern CONUS. A series of low pressure systems will track across the Southern states and lift along the Carolina coast late Tuesday through at least Thursday. Models continue to very with timing and low pressure track and will continue to limit PoPs to the chance range. Temps expected to be a few degrees above normal for Tuesday, then drop to near or slightly below normal through the remainder of the week, though there may be some variability depending of the eventual track of the individual low pressure systems.


12z Saturday through Wednesday Through tonight As of 600 AM Saturday, VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure continues to influence the weather. High Cirrus clouds will move into the area late today and tonight. Once again can't rule out patches of shallow ground fog (MIFG) this morning and again Sunday morning but the depth shouldn't cause any impact to aviation.

Sunday through Wednesday As of 345 AM Saturday, Pred VFR conditions then expected to persist through the day Sunday. The next low pressure system will approach rtes Sunday with precip chances increasing through the evening and could see periods of sub-VFR conditions late Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure builds into the area late Monday into Tuesday with mainly VFR conditions expected but could see fog development Monday night into Tuesday morning bringing sub-VFR conditions. The next in a series of low pressure systems will impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with sub-VFR conditions possible.


Through tonight As of 600 AM Saturday, High pressure will build over the waters today then move offshore tonight with mainly light winds expected through the period. As the high moves out into the Atlantic tonight, a trough of low pressure will develop just off the coast south of Cape Hatteras with some shower activity developing in vicinity of it. The strongest flow will occur this morning with NW winds around 15 kt occasionally gusting to 20 kt. Around 12Z, the winds will diminish to 5-10 kt and gradually back to the SW. Tonight as the trough develops, winds over the southern and portions of the central waters will become northerly 5-10 kt with winds over the northern waters becoming E 5-10 kt. Seas 2-3 ft this morning will become 1-2 ft this afternoon and tonight.

Sunday through Wednesday As of 350 AM Saturday, A frontal system will approach from the west on Sunday with an area of low pressure lifting along the coast Sunday night into Monday with high pressure building back into the area Monday night into Tuesday with another system expected to push across the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Winds become S to SW mainly less than 15 kt Sunday with seas around 2-3 ft. Winds increase to around 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft late Sunday night into Monday as low pressure tracks along the coast. Some uncertainly with the strength and track of the low and cannot rule out the possibility for a brief period SCA conditions. Nly winds expected to drop to around 15 kt or less Monday night and Tuesday with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. N to NE wind increase to around 10-20 kt Tuesday night and Wednesday with seas building to 3-5 ft.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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