Key MESSAGE 1, This morning's temperatures will be the coldest of the week (low 40s inland/low 50s Outer Banks) as cooler, drier air spills in behind the front that's now offshore. Today, skies will be clear and highs will be well below normal (mid/upper 60s inland/mid 60s Outer Banks). Winds shift back to the southwest tomorrow as high pressure expands across the SE. Skies will remain clear and highs will be about 10 degrees warmer than today (mid/upper 70s inland, low 70s Outer Banks).
KEY MESSAGE 2, The pattern becomes active again by mid-week. A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday evening. At the surface, a cold front will cross the Midwest on Tuesday before stalling Wednesday/early Thursday across the Appalachians. A low will develop along this front, but there are model differences in the speed of the front and the strength and track of the low. General consensus is that the front will cross ENC late Thursday afternoon/evening.
Isolated showers could start as early as Wednesday night with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. The latest NSSL severe probs show a 10-30% chance of severe storms with greatest chances being near the coast. Given the favorable FROPA timing of late afternoon/evening, ample bulk shear (60+ kt) and sufficient instability, a few strong to potentially severe storms will be possible. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front could dampen destabilization and decrease the severe threat, but it's still too far out to determine coverage.
In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW winds with gusts to approximately 30 mph inland and 35-40 mph along the coast.
12z Sunday through Thursday VFR conditions are currently noted across ENC this morning. With high pressure building overhead expect VFR conditions to persist through Monday morning as dry air limits any cloud development and fog formation over the next 24 hours. Light NW winds this morning increase closer to 10 kts with gusts up around 15 kts at times this afternoon before winds once again become light tonight.
Outlook: Predominantly VFR flight conditions should persist into early next week.
Small craft advisories have been cancelled with winds below 25 knots and seas below 6 ft. Winds and seas gradually continue decreasing through the day. Tonight, winds will return to the SW and relax to 5-10 kt with seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. Sw winds will increase to 10-20 kt tomorrow with seas at 2-3 ft.
Outlook: 10-20 kt SW winds will continue through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, increasing winds and seas both ahead of and behind it. There's potential for SW Gale force gusts ahead of the front for most of Thursday across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Additionally, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203- 205. Marine, none.
