Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1006 pm EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Discussion

Key MESSAGE 1, ENC remains sandwiched between high pressure over FL and strong low pressure over southern Ontario. Much milder overnight with clouds, increasing precip chances and SW breeze. Lows falling only into the upper 40s and low 50s.

Cold front associated with the Canadian low will approach from the west Thursday into Friday, with rain beginning as early as tonight with increasing lift associated with embedded shortwave. Main slug of precipitation is more likely Thur and Thur night as main trough axis and surface frontal boundary make their approach. Some limited thunder potential will be confined to near the Gulf Stream. Model spread on rainfall amounts is has not changed much, with odds of 24-hour amounts exceeding half an inch still sitting at around 50%. Notably, probabilities of rainfall exceeding an inch ticked up slightly from this time yesterday, now at 20-30%. Concern remains these odds are a bit inflated given antecedent drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2, Once the Friday front clears through a few dry days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in from the north. The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid-Atlantic. Still plenty of details to work out with this given it is beyond Day 5, although it does not look as wet as tomorrow's system.

Aviation

00z Thursday through Monday Pred VFR conditions until late tonight but will see lowering cigs as a front approaches. Mvfr cigs expected to develop across northern rtes, mainly north of US-264, late tonight through Thursday morning with rain overspreading the area, then will see cigs lower to MVFR across southern rtes and IFR across northern rtes during the afternoon with rain overspreading most of ENC. Sw winds around 10-20 kt continues this evening, then settles a bit late tonight before picking back up Thursday with gusts around 20-25 kt. Llws may be a concern at times through the overnight, most likely across NW rtes.

Outlook: A slow-moving frontal zone push south across rtes Thursday evening with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs developing behind the front. May see some slight improvement Friday into Saturday but high probs for sub-VFR conditions continuing, especially across southern rtes.

Marine

Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt over the cooler nearshore waters and 20-30 kt gusting around 30 kt over the outer waters near the Gulf Stream, with seas 3-6 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 5-11 ft south. Sw winds will diminish a bit overnight, then gradients tighten again Thursday ahead of the cold front with another round of SCA conditions likely across the Pamlico Sound and northern coastal waters. Sca will continue across the central and southern coastal waters with the possibility of Gales returning across the outer waters over the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

Outlook: Poor boating conditions likely to persist for offshore waters into Friday before the front crosses the region. The front moves through Thursday night and Friday, with winds becoming NE 10-20 kt late Fri into the weekend. Next period of SCA possible Mon and Tuesday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 1 am EST Thursday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 6 am EST Friday for amz152-154-156- 158.

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