As of 2 PM Sat,
key message 1,
Deep upper trough in the Deep South all the way to the GOM will pivot eastward Sunday, with a weak surface low expected to form along a surface boundary off the SE coast moving northeastward late Sunday. Despite checking several boxes for wintry weather across the Carolinas, especially a lack of cold air in place, will keep precipitation from this system as a cold rain for most of the day Sunday. Rain may mix with or change to snow before ending acrs the Coastal Plain but surface temps will still be above freezing and no accumulations or impacts are expected.
The much needed rain will start late tonight towards dawn Sunday morning, then rapidly increase in coverage across ENC through the day with deep isentropic ascent in place. Rainfall amounts of 1/2"-1" are expected, which may only put a slight dent in the severe drought now in place, but any wetting rain is more than welcome at this point.
key message 2,
There remains some potential for the development of black ice overnight into the Mon AM commute time if heavier rainfall totals are seen and leave wet roads and bridges, as temps will crash hard into the 20s overnight. First ones to ice up will be bridges and overpasses.
Key Message 3,
Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to well below normal temps Monday through Wednesday. Low temps will reach the low 20s, and when factoring in wind chills it will feel like the teens each morning. We will be close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning (wind chills), and Wednesday morning (air temps). Wed morning is the coldest with high pressure directly overhead with lows in the teens areas away from the immediate coast.
00z Sunday through Thursday As of 715 PM Sat, VFR conditions expected to start the period, quickly falling to prolonged IFR in light to moderate rain with a brief and minimal impact changeover to snow after 20-21z.
Deteriorating conditions expected overnight into Sunday as moisture increases behind a stalled frontal boundary offshore with a weak wave of low pressure lifting along it. Light rain expected to begin as early as 09z with cigs then quickly falling to MVFR by 11-12z and then IFR by no later than 15z as deepest moisture and most robust rainfall overspreads terminals. Vis likely to drop to around 3-4 sm after sunrise Sunday and linger at those levels through 00z, although more localized severe drops are possible in heavier rain. After 21z, colder post- frontal air will catch up to deeper moisture and will likely see a mix of rain and snow for terminals west of Highway 17 after 21z. This changeover will not last long, and given expected rainfall prior and warm surface temps no accumulations are forecast. Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NW through the afternoon.
Outlook: Flight conditions will be slow to improve but should return to VFR Sunday night. No snow accumulations are expected, but there's concern for black ice Sunday night/Monday morning. Some freezing fog may also be possible Mon morning especially for OAJ and potentially EWN. Dry high pressure returns Monday, bringing a return to VFR conditions across all of ENC through mid week.
As of 2 PM Sat, Small craft conditions over the gulf waters from Oregon Inlet to C Lookout through early evening thanks to strong and gusty W to SW winds (25+ kts) ahead of a frontal system. Sub SCA winds below 20 kt expected elsewhere as WAA inc over stable marine layer.
Winds temporarily subside tonight as a cold front crosses the region, but NW winds pick up again Sunday afternoon through evening to 15-25 kts (30 kt Gulf waters), and a brief period of Small Craft conditions will be possible esp coastal waters s of Oregon Inlet.
Outlook: Arctic high pressure builds over the waters with lighter winds of 10-20 kt expected through Wednesday with seas 2-4 ft.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
