Key MESSAGE 1, Temps will be 5-10 degrees above normal Saturday ahead of a backdoor front that will push through mid to late afternoon. Highs expected in the low to mid 80s inland with 70s near the coast and upper 60s OBX. Temps will be around 5 degrees cooler Sunday with sfc high pressure to the north bringing easterly flow across the region, but still above normal away from the coast.
The high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday and persists through the week while upper ridging builds over the Southeast bringing a significant warm up and a prolonged period of near record breaking temperatures. Temperatures inland are forecast in the upper 80s Tuesday and peak in the lower 90s Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly into Friday. Current deterministic NBM high temperature forecast is in good agreement with low level thickness tools, however it is around the 25th percentile of the blend of models, so there is potential for even warmer temperatures than currently forecast. Some uncertainty with the forecast Friday as some guidance push a dry backdoor front through the area which would result in lower temperatures, but other guidance keeps southwest flow and very warm temperatures. Deterministic NBM temperatures are around the 10th percentile for Friday. Record highs next week are in the low to mid 90s inland and around 80 along the coast, so some records may certainly be challenged, especially inland.
KEY MESSAGE 2, Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through next week. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks. While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.
15z Friday through Tuesday VFR conditions are expected for most of Eastern NC through tomorrow, with the only exception being over the NOBX and as far west as Mainland Dare County where sea fog and low stratus are likely to bring sub-VFR conditions from later this afternoon through much of the overnight hours.
Light and variable winds are present this afternoon with clear skies. Tonight winds may briefly become calm before a southerly breeze develops. There may be a brief window where radiational fog could develop, but with no guidance support, the potential looks to be very isolated. Vfr conditions continue through tomorrow with light winds and mostly sunny skies.
Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a dry backdoor front working through the area late tomorrow, and a more summertime pattern taking shape behind it into early next week.
Currently seeing N to NE winds across the waters with 5-7 ft seas and 2-4 ft nearshore Onslow Bay. Long period easterly swell will keep elevated seas through much of the weekend and continue the SCA through tonight across the southern waters and into midday Sunday across the central and northern waters.
Also, visible satellite showing sea fog moving into the northern coastal waters from around Rodanthe northward this afternoon. This could bring reduced visibilities through tonight over northern portions of the waters.
Westerly winds will be around 10-15 kt Saturday morning, then a backdoor front will push through the area Sunday with winds shifting to N to NE around 10-20kt and could see a brief period of gusts to around 25 kt just behind the front. Winds become Ely around 15 kt or less Saturday night into Sunday, then veer to SE Sunday afternoon.
Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week, although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 2 pm EDT Sunday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 5 pm EDT Sunday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Saturday for amz156-158.
