A clipper system will move quickly through the region today, with weak high pressure briefly building in tonight. A strong cold front will cross the region late Saturday night into Sunday, with notable high pressure building back in by Monday. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week.
Today As of 2 AM Friday,
Key Messages
- Clipper system may bring a few flurries this morning
A clipper system swings east across the Mid-Atlantic States today. Strong WAA develops ahead of this feature into Friday across the Carolinas. Given the fast movement of the system, there will be limited time for sufficient moisture advection ahead of it. However, there may be just enough low-mid level moisture overlapped with near freezing surface temps to support a brief period of flurries early this morning, mainly along and north of the HWY 264 corridor. With limited moisture and a dry sub-cloud layer, any snow that occurs will be more of a novelty with no accumulation or impacts.
A warm front will attempt to lift north into ENC, but will probably stall across southern sections. South of where the front reaches, highs should manage to warm into the low 50s, while highs should hold in the mid to upper 40s to the north.
Tonight through Saturday As of 2 PM Thursday,
Key Messages
- Warmer temperatures on Saturday
Skies become clear this evening and with light/calm winds allowing for good radiational cooling. The stalled front is expected to lift north late tonight and Saturday in response to a strong shortwave approaching the region from the west with southerly flow bringing a descent warmup on Saturday. Lows tonight expected in low to mid 30s inland to mid 30s to low 40s near the coast. Highs Saturday expected to top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Saturday night through Thursday As of 2 AM Friday,
Key Messages,
- Strong cold front to move through Sunday with breezy conditions and a brief round of light precipitation
- Wind chills in the single digits to low teens possible Sunday night/Monday morning
Sunday and Monday night, A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend with a robust upper trough digging across the East Coast and an attendant cold front pushing across the area Sunday. Moisture is somewhat limited but favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area. There remains some timing difference with the front as well as precip coverage among the guidance but the trend over the past 24 hours has now gone in the opposite direction, now with decreasing PoPs and coverage across ENC. Any precip will begin as rain but the column cools quickly behind the front and could see a change over to a rain/snow mix or all snow, briefly, before ending late afternoon and evening.
Temps a bit tricky on Sunday and will be dictated by the timing of the cold front and there remains a large spread among guidance. Currently have highs Sunday in mid to upper 40s inland to mid to upper 50s coast but that may be optimistic if the front passes through earlier in the morning. Temps will fall through the afternoon as CAA ramps up behind the front with gusty NW winds. Caa continues Sunday night with temps expected to drop into the teens inland to 20s along the coast. Wind chills are expected to drop to the single digits to teens across the area after midnight into mid-morning Monday. Should the latest trends hold, this could set the stage for cold weather headlines being needed for much of the area, including down to the coast.
Arctic high pressure will build into the area Monday bringing the coldest airmass of the season and highs are expected to remain in the 30s most areas despite mainly sunny skies. Monday will be another frigid night with temps falling into the upper teens to lower 20 away from the coast.
Tuesday through Thursday, High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week. Precip chances increase Thursday and Thursday night with a cold front potentially approaching the area. Highs expected in the 40s Tuesday, 50s on Wednesday, and 60s on Thursday.
12z Friday through Tuesday As of 625 AM Fri,
Key Messages
- VFR conditions expected through the TAF period
No real changes to the forecast through Fri night as high and mid clouds stream overhead in association with a weak clipper system approaching from the west. As the clipper makes its closest point of approach Fri morning there will be increasing mid level cloudcover, though ceilings will generally remain well above 7-9 kft. With this in mind, a few flurries can't be ruled out around the area Fri, though minimal impact is forecast. Vfr conditions then continue across all of ENC through Fri night. High pressure pushes offshore Fri evening allowing for light and variable winds. Low level moisture will increase slightly throughout the day into tonight. With mo clear skies we turn our attention to the potential for patchy fog. Current guidance suggests this threat has a less than 20% chance of occuring and would happen after 06Z Sat if it were to occur. So for now it is not mentioned in any of the TAFs but we will continue to monitor the situation and include it if necessary.
Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions expected through Sat with a low end chance at some sub-VFR conditions Sunday across ENC as a cold front moves across the area. Gusty NW winds expected Sunday, with pred VFR returning Monday.
As of 230 AM Friday,
Key Messages
- A significant system moves through late Sunday into early Monday with 30-40kt wind gusts likely
Today through Saturday night, NW winds continue to subside early this morning and are now less than 15 kt across the waters with seas around 3-5 ft. Light winds, mainly around 10 kt or less, are expected today through tonight with high pressure centered across SE VA. A warm front will attempt to lift into the southern waters late today and tonight but guidance has backed off with how far north it lifts into the area and subsequently no longer develops the stronger winds across the southern waters. The warm front will lift across the waters late tonight and Saturday with winds becoming SW around 5-15 kt, strongest south of Hatteras. Seas will be around 1-3 ft.
Sunday through Tuesday, Another potent Arctic front is set to cross the area on Sunday with strong SCA to Gale Force winds likely behind the front Sunday and Sunday night. Conditions will improve on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure build back into the area.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
