Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1045 pm EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Synopsis

High pressure will continue over the area through tomorrow. Then, unsettled conditions will develop over the area through this weekend as Hurricane Ian moves up the SE coast to our west. Unsettled weather may continue into early next week depending on the track of the remnants of Ian across the Mid- Atlantic.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 1050 PM Wed, No changes needed with eve update.

As of 6 PM Wed, High pressure remains in control tonight with cirrus and increasing mid level clouds through the night. Quickly strengthening troughing off the coast will begin to increase the gradient locally, with gusty N to NE winds arriving late. Temps several degrees below normal with increasing CAA.

Short Term

Thursday As of 6 PM Wed, The gradient continues to tighten Thursday with gusty winds across the area as Hurricane Ian works across the Florida Peninsula. Deeper moisture off the coastal will work back toward the beaches through the day with shower chances increasing along the coast, but mainly dry conditions still expected inland. Below normal temps continue with CAA persisting.

Long Term

Thursday night through Wednesday As of 5 PM Wed, High pressure will continue to interact with Tropical Cyclone Ian to the south, keeping northeasterly winds elevated through Friday evening across the entire area. The biggest change to the forecast this evening has been the introduction of tropical storm watches along coastal Onslow and Carteret County this afternoon as a period of tropical storm force gusts will be possible Friday afternoon into the evening before winds begin to ease across the area. Tropical moisture from Ian collides with a stalled offshore front that will begin moving inland Thursday evening and continue into the weekend, resulting in a long duration of heavy rain.

Thursday night through Sunday, Strong inverted coastal trough/frontal boundary, supercharged with a feed of tropical moisture, will develop Thursday evening into Friday morning as Tropical Cyclone Ian is expected to slowly move up northward from Florida into the Southeastern US. Much of the forecast for late next week is then predicated on what Ian does, though there is good agreement that periods of heavy rain will impact ENC as inverted troughing acts as a PRE and moisture from the cyclone interacts with this feature. The biggest change to the forecast on this package is the introduction of tropical storm watches along coastal Onslow and Carteret Counties this afternoon. Though winds are forecast to remain generally around the 20-25 mph across inland zones Thursday night into Friday a few hours of 30+ mph winds will be possible along the Crystal Coast Friday afternoon. Winds will continually be sustained at 20-30 mph along the Outer Banks however, this will be due to the tighter gradient between Ian to the south and high pressure to the north. There appears to be at least a short time period where tropical storm force gusts would be possible Friday afternoon across the watch areas given the latest guidance. Regardless, gusty northeasterly winds will be likely from Thursday evening on into Friday night before winds begin to ease. Maintained categorical POPs in the FA, centered on Fri into Saturday morning, as excellent agreement on prolonged rain event. Latest guidance does indicate that a dry slot may develop on Saturday afternoon across our inland zones while dry air wraps around Ian as the system tracks NNW'wards further inland into Central SC/NC resulting in slightly lower QPF/PoP values across the region on Saturday. Wpc continues a slgt risk for excessive rain Friday into Sat, feeding concerns for localized flash flooding both days, with river flooding becoming a concern thereafter (see Hydrology section below for more details). Strong northeast to east winds due to the pres gradient between high pres to the northeast and Ian to the southwest (see coastal flood section below for details). As the system drifts north through the interior Southeast, a tornado threat may develop later Fri into the weekend as winds veer around to southeast and south, and therefore retained slgt chc thunder mention in grids. Spc has also added much of the FA into a marginal risk for severe weather on Friday, reinforcing our concerns for a tornado threat.

Monday through Tuesday, Much disagreement on where remnants of Ian will linger, but it could continue to be unsettled with remnants of Ian lingering in the Southeast or Mid Atlantic, and therefore only chc pops due to uncertainty this far out.

Rain Forecast

As of 400 PM Wed, An extended period of heavy rain showers develop Thur night, peaking Friday into the first half of the weekend. This will bring the potential for flash flooding for Eastern NC, as well as river flooding on the main stem waterways and smaller tributaries and creeks. The heaviest rainfall amounts are expected along the coast, though due to the forecast uncertainty at this time range, there is the potential for the area of maximum rainfall to shift. At this time, 3 to 8 inches of rain is forecast for Eastern NC Friday through Sunday, with isolated higher amounts possible, esp near the southern coast.

Aviation

03z Thursday through Monday Through Thursday As of 7 PM Wed, VFR prevails through tonight with an increasing gradient tonight bringing gusty N to NE winds beginning late tonight into Thursday. Increasing low level moisture advection as Hurricane Ian moves across Florida through the day Thursday could bringing increasing low level clouds later in the day, but sub-VFR ceilings should remain limited in coverage until Thursday afternoon or later.

Thursday night through Sunday As of 355 AM Wed, Deep tropical moisture associated with TC Ian is expected to increase Thursday night and persist into the weekend, bringing the threat for more extensive and prolonged flight restrictions.

Marine

Through Thursday As of 6 PM Wed, Coastal troughing strengthens quickly tonight into Thursday with winds increasing overnight and Gales developing from south to north through the day Thursday. Overall deteriorating conditions for all marine zones over the next 24 hrs, with dangerous marine conditions then persisting through the end of the week. Seas increase accordingly, reaching 4-7 ft Thursday morning, then 6-10 ft by Thursday afternoon and very rough northerly wind wave.

Thursday night through Sunday As of 515 PM Wednesday, Strong NE winds will continue to build across the waters on Thursday night as a result from the tight gradient between TC Ian and a strong sfc high to the north. Sustained winds of 20-30 kts with gusts between 30-40 kts will persist into Friday as Ian eventually makes a second landfall somewhere in the GA/SC coastline Friday evening. There is a threat for a brief period of tropical storm force winds and gusts Friday across our southern waters and given this,the biggest change as of this update has been the issuance of tropical storm watches along the coastal waters south of Cape Lookout. Seas will become treacherous as well, with 4-8 ft seas Thu, becoming 8- 11+ ft Fri. Winds turn more E/ESE Friday night and eventually SE-S by Saturday, gradually ramping down to 20-25 kt gusts by Saturday. Seas also respond, diminishing to 6-8 ft Saturday. By Sunday, winds are currently expected to become easterly at 5-10 kts with 3-6 ft seas. Some changes may be needed later depending on the track and intensity of Ian. The key message for mariners is to plan for rough seas and increasing winds through the week.

Updates to the marine headlines: Southern coastal waters south of Cape Lookout have been upgraded to a tropical storm watch this afternoon. A Gale warning is now in effect for the Neuse River. All coastal waters north of Cape Lookout are under a gale warning. The Pamlico, Albemarle, Croatan, Roanoke Sounds and Alligator River are now under a gale warning as of this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain for the Pamlico/Pungo Rivers.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, tropical storm watch for ncz195-196-199. Coastal flood advisory from 8 am Thursday to 8 am EDT Saturday for ncz080-196. Coastal flood warning from 8 am Thursday to 8 am EDT Saturday for ncz094-194. Coastal flood advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 8 pm EDT Friday for ncz195-199. Beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for ncz196-199-203>205. Marine, gale warning from 2 pm Thursday to 6 pm EDT Friday for amz131- 150-230-231. Gale warning from 6 am Thursday to 2 pm EDT Friday for amz135- 137-154. Small craft advisory from 8 am Thursday to 5 am EDT Saturday for amz136. Gale warning from 6 am Thursday to 6 pm EDT Friday for amz152. Tropical storm watch for amz156-158.

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