Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

608 pm EDT Wed apr 21 2021

Synopsis

A strong cold front will move offshore early this evening. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday and Friday. Low pressure will impact the region later Saturday into Sunday, followed by high pressure early next week.

Near Term

Until 6 am Thursday morning As of 605 PM Wed, The strong cold front was located from Roanoke Island to just south of Kinston and will continue to move quickly southeast, passing through all of Eastern NC by 9 PM. Regional rdrs show isolated convection from the northern Outer Banks to the counties south of the Albemarle Sound. Cvrg will be rather limited and will be confined to the northern tier for the next 1-2 hours moving off the coast with the front. Will continue chc pops NE to no pop SW. Gusty SW winds ahead of the front will turn more NW and remain quite gusty thru the evening.

Cold temperatures and breezy/brisk conditions are the name of the game tonight as high pressure forces its way in from the west. Temps drop quickly behind the front overnight, with lows falling into the 30s away from the coast under clearing skies. Persistent winds will limit the frost and fog threat.

Short Term

6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday As of 230 PM Wed, CAA continues Thursday as high pressure builds into the area. A mid-level shortwave and sfc trough will push across the area Thursday evening with little affect on sensible weather other than to pinch the gradients some. Temps Thursday will be around 10-15 degrees below normal despite generally sunny skies with highs expected in the lower 60s.

Long Term

Thursday night through Wednesday As of 5 AM Wednesday, Cold high pressure builds into the area Thursday night into Friday bringing the potential for frost Friday morning. A potentially strong low pressure area and cold front will push through this weekend with high pressure building back in early next week.

Thursday night through Friday, High pressure builds back in from the west late Thursday night becoming centered over the area early Friday morning. Clear skies and calm winds allowing for excellent radiational cooling bringing a better frost potential with lows dropping into the mid 30s inland while coastal sections will be in the low to mid 40s. The high migrates offshore Friday with return flow bringing warming temps with highs expected in the upper 60s to around 70 inland with coastal sections in the mid 60s.

Saturday through Sunday, A robust mid-level shortwave and attendant sfc low track across the southern states Saturday then deepens as it tracks through the southern mid-Atlantic Saturday night. Much better moisture transport will surge into the area bringing widespread rainfall with guidance showing 1-1.5" QPF possible. Significant shear will be in place with guidance showing 50-70 kt 0-6km bulk shear but instability will be very limited only peaking around 500 J/Kg Saturday night as the low tracks NW of the area leading to a minimal severe threat. A few lingering showers possible early Sunday but the low will quickly lift away from the area with clearing skies. High temps Saturday will be in the mid to upper 60s warm into the low to mid 70s Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday, High pressure will build into the area early next week bringing dry conditions and a slow warming trend with 70s to near 80 by Tuesday.

Aviation

22z Wednesday through Monday Through Thu As of 605 PM Wed, VFR conditions will prevail as a cold front currently moving through the TAF sites should not produce any precipitation south of Highway 264 early this evening. The cold front moves east of the terminals around 0Z this evening, followed by clearing/drying conditions overnight thru Thu. The most impactful threat into tonight will be gusty winds, with southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front quickly shifting northwest with the passage of the cold front early this evening. The gusty northwest winds this evening and overnight will create crosswind concerns primarily for PGV runway 2/20 and EWN runway 4/22, with crosswind impacts also possible for OAJ and ISO overnight.

Thursday night through Monday As of 530 AM Wednesday, Pred VFR conditions expected into Saturday morning. A strengthening low pressure center will impact the area later Saturday and Saturday night with sub-VFR conditions likely. Skies clear quickly Sunday with VFR conditions returning.

Marine

Through Thu As of 605 PM Wed, SW prefrontal winds will peak shortly then quickly shift to NW behind front thru 2Z. Strong CAA will keep winds gusty in the 20 to 30 kt range thru the evening with speeds slowly coming down late tonight as high pres begins to build in. Despite strong winds, offshore flow will keep seas in the 5 to 7 foot range outer wtrs tonight. Will cont SCA all wtrs thru much of the night ending for the sounds/rvrs around or shortly after daybreak. Nw winds diminish to around 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to around 3-5 ft north and 2-3 ft south around mid-day Thursday and expect SCA to be able to be dropped for all waters by then. Gradients tighten up again late Thursday afternoon and evening as a mid-level shortwave and sfc trough track across the area with winds increasing to around 15-20 kt.

Thursday night through Monday As of 530 AM Wednesday, High pressure will dominate Friday bringing good boating conditions but a strong low pressure area will approach the area Saturday and lift NW of the area Saturday night and expect a period of strong SCA conditions to develop Saturday afternoon. Slow improve expected through the day Sunday but most waters will continue to have SCA conditions through the day.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 7 am EDT Thursday for amz131-136- 137-230-231. Small craft advisory until 9 am EDT Thursday for amz135-156- 158. Small craft advisory until noon EDT Thursday for amz150-152- 154.

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