A cold front will push across the region early this morning with high pressure building into the area later today, and sliding offshore Friday. A weak disturbance moves across the area Friday night which may bring a few showers along the coast. An Arctic front will approach the region Sunday bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. A much colder airmass builds into the region early next week.
Through today As of 12 AM Thursday,
Key Messages,
- Dry cold front crossing the area early this morning
- Cooler and dry today
Latest surface analysis shows that the cold front is currently crossing the Appalachians. As the front passes the CWA later this morning, a surge of northerly winds will take place, gusting to around 20 mph inland and 30 mph along the Outer Banks through the afternoon. High pressure will build in behind the front with CAA keeping temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday, reaching the upper-60s across southwestern zones and low- to mid-60s elsewhere.
Tonight As of 12:15 AM Thursday,
- Chilly lows into the upper-30s inland
Good radiational cooling will take place tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies. Temps will tank after sunset with lows ranging from the upper-30s across inland areas to the upper-40s/low-50s at the beaches. Another round of patchy frost will be possible, especially across NW portions of the CWA and well-sheltered areas.
Friday through Wednesday As of 12:30 AM Thursday,
Key Messages,
- A few coastal showers possible Friday night
- Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday ahead of a strong cold front
- An Arctic front will push across the area Sunday night with much colder temperatures early next week. Near or below freezing temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday nights
Friday through Saturday, High pressure will slide offshore Friday as a mid-level shortwave approaches and crosses the area Friday night. Sw return flow will bring modest warming with highs in the low-70s. A few coastal showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible Friday night as a weakening coastal trough lifts across the area, otherwise deep westerly downslope flow and weak dynamics will keep precip chances minimal through Saturday. Southerly flow will bring additional warming Saturday with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s inland and lower 70s along the coast. Overnight temps will be mild Friday and Saturday nights with lows in the upper-50s to low-60s.
Sunday through Wednesday, A strong northern stream trough will dig into the central CONUS this weekend and then move to the East Coast early next week, bringing the coldest airmass of the season. Moderate southerly flow will persist Sunday head of the attendant Arctic front with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing. Temps will remain well above normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s (lower 70s coast). The Arctic front is progged to push across the area Sunday night with strong CAA and gusty NW winds developing on Monday. Monday and Tuesday will likely see highs in the low to mid 50s, which is more than 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows on Monday night are expected to drop below freezing with lower 30s across most inland areas and mid 30s to around 40 along the coast. The high pressure axis will slide offshore late Tuesday with SW return flow developing, which may keep temps from dropping quite as cool Tuesday night, but with light winds and clear skies, areas that decouple could drop below freezing once again. High pressure remains centered across the Southeast Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming temperatures, but still 5-10 degrees below normal with highs around 60.
06z Thursday through Monday As of 1 AM Thu, VFR conditions are present early this morning as a dry cold front moves through the region. Skies will remain clear with this cold frontal passage, and winds will shift to the north later this morning with VFR conditions continuing. Clear skies continue today and through tonight with high pressure over the area. Though good radiational cooling is expected, dry air at the surface will keep fog from forming overnight.
Outlook: Predominately VFR conditions are anticipated into this weekend with high pressure over the area. There may be some potential for patchy fog Friday morning. Increasing clouds and moisture expected late this weekend with an approaching frontal system, but it's unclear if it will lead to sub-VFR conditions at the moment.
As of 1 AM Thursday,
Key Messages,
- Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through this morning with conditions improving this afternoon
- The potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions returns late Sunday becoming likely Monday behind a strong cold front
Through Thursday, Latest obs show SW winds at 15-30 kt and seas at 5-8 ft. Sw winds are peaking now and will relax slightly as they veer to the north later this morning with the FROPA. Once the winds become northerly, a post frontal surge will boost winds back up to 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. High pressure will build in later today and winds and seas will drop below SCA by early this evening.
Thursday night and Friday, High pressure will transit the area bringing good boating conditions with wind veering to Ely Thursday night and then southerly Friday as the high moves off the coast. Winds will be 10-15 kt with seas around 2-4 ft.
Friday night through Monday, High pressure remains offshore with primarily S to SW winds across the waters. A weak shortwave will serve to tighten the gradients Friday night with winds increasing to 15-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft, otherwise winds will be around 10-15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft. A strong Arctic front will approach the area late in the weekend and is currently progged to push across the waters Sunday night. Sw winds increase to around 15-20 kt on Sunday and could see minimal SCA conditions develop with gusts around 25 kt and seas approaching 6 ft, with best chances near the Gulf Stream. Winds become NW behind the front with the true Arctic surge developing late Monday with winds increasing to 20-30 kt with a potential for Gale Force winds, especially in gusts, and seas building to 4-7 ft.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 am EST this morning for amz131- 137-230-231. Small craft advisory until 1 pm EST this afternoon for amz135. Small craft advisory until 2 pm EST this afternoon for amz150- 156-158. Small craft advisory until 5 pm EST this afternoon for amz152- 154.
