Key MESSAGE 1, High pres shifts offshore on Mon while another shortwave swings ewrd acrs the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region. This will drag a cold front into the Southeast, but as is typical this time of year, the front gets hung up or at least slows down before reaching ENC tomorrow. The fcst has trended drier with 00z model suite Monday with only slgt chc (20%) inland. More breezy on Mon as thermal gradient inc in addition to the cold front moving into the Piedmont. Some models indicate some weakening MCS activity arriving into interior ENC Mon evening, but this activity running into dry air should limit chances to no higher than 30-40% Mon evening and mainly for our nwrn FA. Best chance for a storm would be from around 8pm to 2am. Any storms that enter our nwrn counties could be on the stronger side as some renegade instability and shear of 20+ kt will be found here, with strong wind gusts the main threat.
The aforementioned stalled front will then get kicked through ENC as a backdoor cold front Tue evening as stronger shrtwave exits the Mid Atlantic coast. Have cont to fcst lower than NBM pops, as convective coverage will be more sct in nature. Have retained the likely pops from previous forecast to the nern zones, where best convergence and forcing will be for more widespread thundershowers. No severe expected as shear is lacking. Further inland, the chances decrease to around 40% with lack of appreciable forcing and a bit more dry air in place. Front will sweep offshore Tue evening, taking any precip with it. Dry conditions return for Wed into Thu with high pres dominating. Next chance of showers and storms on Friday as next shortwave swings through the sern CONUS.
KEY MESSAGE 2, With the return swrly flow, hot and humid conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices, though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week. Brief break from the heat expected on Wed behind the fropa, when afternoon highs only in the low 80s OBX zones to upper 80s inland with lowered RH's as well. Heating back up Thu into Fri as return swrly flow returns.
16z Sunday through Thursday Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. High pressure shifts offshore today, with strengthening sea breeze in the afternoon bringing southerly wind gusts upwards of around 15 kt in it's wake as it progresses inland. Ssw winds inc further on Monday afternoon as tight thermal gradient develops along with inland trough ahead of cold front. Gusts upwards of 20kt by afternoon. May be a isolated shower or two along the inland seabreeze, but not enough of a chance to mention in the TAF fcst attm.
Outlook (Tue through Fri): Best bet for showers and storms will be Mon night, mainly for KPGV as some convection from the west may sneak into ENC in the evening hours. Front will sweep through Tue afternoon and evening, with another shot for afternoon showers and storms, esp along the eastern termainals. Winds turn nrly to nerly behind the front Tue evening with any precip threat ending. Dry again for Wed and Thu with high pres rebuilding. Next precip chance on Fri with another system approaching.
Latest obs show very weak flow with high pres in vicinty. The flow becomes onshore, or south to southeast this afternoon as high shifts offshore with speeds of 10-15 kt. The winds inc late Monday as cold front approaches and tightening thermal gradient builds, with ssw winds of 15-20 kt, nearing 25 kt late Monday afternoon.
Outlook (Mon night through Fri): Aforementioned approaching cold front produce gusty sswrly winds Mon night, peaking between 9pm and 3am. Will hold off on any SCA issuance, as gusts around 25 kt will be sporadic, and last generally only a few hours, as well as seas remaining below 6 ft for the coastal waters. Most likely areas to see some 25 kt gusts are across the now very warm Pamlico and Croatan/Roanoke sounds, as well as the adjacent nearshore areas of the coastal watersThe front will move through the waters Tue night with flow becoming N-NE 5-15 kt behind it. Return swrly winds for Thu into Fri though looks to remain below SCA conditions.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
