Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

629 am EST Mon Jan 18 2021

Synopsis

High pressure will continue over the region into early next week. A dry cold front will move through early Wednesday morning. Another frontal system will impact the area late this week, with high pressure building in from the north this weekend.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 220 AM Mon, Upper level trough will pivot over the region Monday morning through the afternoon. Weak associated cold front positioned over western NC will get washed out as it attempts to move eastward with any precip wrung out over the mountains. Overall dry airmass will keep our forecast as such. Can expect a few high clouds through the aftn before sfc high pressure begins to build in from the SW Monday aftn and tightening pressure gradients. Can expect SW winds to turn more Wrly and gust to around 15-20 kts. High temps expected to reach the low 50s.

Short Term

Tuesday through 6 am Tuesday As of 220 AM Mon, Aforementioned high pressure will continue building into the region Mon night through Tue AM, allowing skies to clear and winds to calm. Decent radiational cooling expected as a result, with some hi res forecast soundings showing sfc layer decoupling overnight. Leaned on colder guidance with lows expected around 30 inland with upper 30s along the coast.

Long Term

Tuesday through Sunday As of 230 AM Mon, Seasonable and dry weather to start off the period, with increasing precip chances late week and a return to dry weather and below normal temps this weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday, High pressure continues over the area Tuesday, with a dry cold front moving through Tue night and early Wed. Main impact with the boundary will be increasing cloud cover and wind shift. Highs in the 50s Tue area-wide then back into the upper 40s to mid 50s Wed.

Thursday and Friday, Still some uncertainty regarding the next system expected to impact the area Thursday and Friday. Both the GFS/ECMWF continue to trend drier, keeping the front and moisture more suppressed to the south. Big differences in the two models for Friday as a several waves of low pressure form along a stalled front near or just south of the CWA. The GFS has trended drier, shunting the moisture/precipitation to the south, while the ECMWF shows a rather wet day on Friday along the coast with deeper omega and moisture. Will continue sc pops across the north and chance across the south, closer to the front and deeper moisture.

Saturday through Monday, Strong high pressure will build in from the north Saturday and Sunday, then gradually slide offshore Monday as next low pressure system approaches from the west. Mostly dry weather this weekend with the sfc high in control and ridging aloft. Below normal temps expected with highs generally 45-50 deg, and overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s. Increasing precip chances early next week as deepening low lifts out of the Central US into the NE US and pushes a front through.

Aviation

12z Monday through Friday Through 12z Tuesday As of 630 AM Mon, VFR conditions to prevail through the end of the TAF period. A batch of mid to high clouds across the region this morning will move out, giving way to mostly clear skies today. High pressure will build into the region throughout the day, creating a tight pressure gradient that will bump up winds a notch. Sw flow will turn more Wrly and gust up to 15-20 kts this afternoon. Winds calm tonight through Tue morning as daytime heating dies down and high pressure takes predominant control over the area.

Tuesday through Friday As of 230 AM Mon, Pred VFR conditions expected through Wednesday night. A few showers are possible Thursday and Friday as a frontal boundary stalls near the area, with potential for brief periods of sub-VFR.

Marine

Through tonight As of 230 AM Mon, Winds and waves will begin to subside slightly early Monday morning before ramping back up again by midday. Tight pressure gradient will develop Mon aftn as high pressure begins to build in from the south, causing winds to increase and shift from the SW to a more Wrly flow. Winds across the Pamlico Sound will slip below SCA criteria for a few hours Mon morning, but ramp back up during the aftn with gusts up to 25 kt expected. Central and southern waters will continue to see 25 kt gusts through the morning, increasing to 30 kt in the aftn. Seas across the central and southern waters 4-6 ft will drop to 3-5 ft for a few hours before building to 4-6 ft again in the aftn with a few 7 ft by the evening. High pressure will continue building into the region overnight, relaxing the pressure gradient and calming marine conditions to gradually drop below SCA threshold by Tue morning.

Tuesday through Friday As of 230 AM Mon, High pressure remains in control Tuesday, with W/NW winds 10-20 kt in the morning becoming more SW by afternoon. Seas 3-5 ft early subsiding to 2-4 ft. A front will push through Tuesday night and early Wed. Wsw winds will increase to 15-25 kt Tuesday night ahead of the front, becoming NW behind it for Wed. Sca conditions likely, mainly the waters south of Oregon Inlet and maybe the Pamlico Sound into Wed. Light SW winds early Thursday, increasing to 15-25 kt Thu afternoon and night. Seas 1-3 ft early building to 4-6 ft Thu evening into Fri. Front will likely remain stalled to the south Friday. W/NW winds 10-15 kt Fri, with seas 4-6 ft south of Oregon Inlet subsiding to 3-5 ft by the afternoon.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 5 am EST Tuesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 3 am EST Tuesday for amz156-158. Small craft advisory until 10 pm EST this evening for amz135.

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