High pressure will continue building into the area through tonight. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday ahead of a fast moving front that will push across the area Wednesday night. High pressure builds in again Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night ahead of another low pressure system potentially impacting the area this weekend.
Until 6 am Wednesday morning As of 1:20 PM Tuesday,
Key Messages,
- Cool and dry
High pressure continues to build into the area today, which has helped erode clouds over the past few hours. A weak shortwave is approaching the area and coverage of mid and high clouds will increase through the evening as the high moves to our south. Although our winds are expected to become light to calm overnight, cloud cover is expected to be variable, going in and out of periods of clear skies and greater cloud coverage, which will greatly impact how well we radiate. With this being said, there's room for lows to drop below the current forecast (upper 20s across the coastal plain and mid 30s to low 40s at the beaches) should we have longer periods of less cloud cover.
6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday As of 1:20 PM Tuesday,
Key Messages,
- Warmer with gusty winds ahead of a dry cold front
A northern stream shortwave will dig across the eastern CONUS tomorrow with a surface low moving across the Great Lakes region. A dry cold front will approach the area but won't pass ENC until tomorrow night. Ahead of the front, the gradient will become more pinched and cause an increase in southwest winds. It'll be pretty breezy tomorrow afternoon and evening with 10-15 mph winds gusting to 25-30 mph across the coastal plain. Along the Outer Banks, winds will be 20-30 mph with gusts to 30 to 40 mph. Increasing heights will warm us up a bit, sending highs into the low to mid 50s across the coastal plain and upper 50s along the coast.
Wednesday night through Tuesday As of 1:20 PM Tuesday,
Key messages,
- A dry cold front will cross the area Wednesday night
- A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on Sunday
Wednesday night, Southwest winds will veer to the northwest overnight, continuing to gust to 10-15 mph across the coastal plain and 30-40 mph along the Outer Banks. Our warm up tomorrow will keep lows slightly milder tomorrow night with temps expected to reach the mid 30s across the coastal plain and upper 30s to low 40s along the Outer Banks.
Thursday through Friday, We'll finish out the week with another round of high pressure. The post-frontal airmass will leave us with mostly sunny skies on Thursday but keep highs a few degrees cooler (mid to upper 40s). Lows will be back into the mid to upper 30s across the coastal plain and mid 30s along the Outer Banks. A passing shortwave will introduce greater cloud coverage on Friday, but flow returning to the southwest will warm us a few degrees with highs ranging from the upper 40s across northwestern zones to mid 50s along the coast. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s for much of the area (low 40s coast).
Saturday through Tuesday, Another northern stream shortwave will move across the upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic through the weekend. A surface low lifting across the Carolinas will drag a cold front across the area Sunday evening. The warmest temps of the period will be Saturday and Sunday ahead of this cold front, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s both days. While this FROPA will provide a slightly better opportunity for precip than our front on Wednesday night, it'll still be fairly moisture starved. Pops are currently slight chance to low end chance across the area on Sunday, but both the EURO and GFS trended drier from their 06z to 12z runs. A cooler airmass will build in behind the front to start next week, knocking highs back down to the 40s Monday and Tuesday.
00z Wednesday through Sunday As of 6 PM Tue,
VFR with high clouds currently across ENC. Rapid clearing is expected again after 10pm behind these high clouds before it becomes more on and off through the early morning hours Wednesday. A small camp of guidance shows a low- end chance of patchy shallow fog early morning, but light/calm winds and drier low- level conditions are expected to preclude any fog threat at this time. Have a 6SM MIFG tempo mention for PGV for some shallow, non-impactful steam fog potential. High clouds return and Swrly winds up to 25 kt Wednesday afternoon out ahead of a cold front. The front passes through on the dry side, with VFR through the weekend expected.
As of 1:20 PM Tuesday,
Key Messages
- Winds and seas gradually diminish through this evening
- Southwest winds increase Wednesday and Wednesday night
- Gales expected for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet starting tomorrow afternoon
- SCAs elsewhere except for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers
Today and Wednesday, SCAs are currently in effect for all coastal waters with subsiding 6-8 ft seas. The SCA south of Ocracoke Inlet will drop off around midnight as seas drop below 6 ft. 6 footers will linger across the central waters overnight.
10-20 kt NW winds will weaken tonight as they back to the SW and then ramp up tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Sw winds will peak tomorrow evening at 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. The Gale Watch for these zones has been upgraded to a Gale Warning starting at 3 PM tomorrow.
The coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet will have a brief period of sub-SCA conditions between tonight and tomorrow morning. However, with the period between this current round of SCA seas and the upcoming round of SCA winds and seas being so brief, the SCA has been extended to cover both events. Sw winds will increase through tomorrow, peaking in the afternoon at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30+ kt. Seas will build to 4-6 ft.
SW winds across the sounds and Neuse and Bay Rivers will increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, peaking tomorrow night. Scas are in effect for these zones starting tomorrow afternoon.
Thursday through Monday, High pressure will build across the waters Thursday and Friday, then slide off the coast Saturday. Conditions are expected to drop below SCA criteria by Thursday afternoon with descent boating conditions continuing through Saturday. Our next cold front will pass on Sunday, bringing our next chance of SCA winds and seas that could last into the start of next week.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 7 am EST Thursday for amz131-230. Small craft advisory from noon Wednesday to 11 am EST Thursday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 4 pm Wednesday to 4 am EST Thursday for amz137. Small craft advisory until noon EST Thursday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 3 pm EST Wednesday for amz152-154. Gale warning from 3 pm Wednesday to 5 am EST Thursday for amz152-154-156-158. Small craft advisory until midnight EST tonight for amz156-158. Small craft advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 am EST Thursday for amz231.
