key message 1,
A very deep and cold upper level trough down to the GOA will pivot eastward Sunday, with a surface low expected to form along a surface boundary off the SE coast, and deepen as it moves offshore Sunday. Despite checking several boxes for wintry weather across the Carolinas, a lack of cold air in place (highs will be in the 60s today), will keep precipitation from this system as a cold rain for most of the day Sunday. There remains a moderate potential for rain to mix with or change to snow briefly before precip ends across the coastal plain, and points east along US 64 towards the NOBX, but surface temps will still be above freezing and no accumulations or impacts are expected.
The much needed rain will start early Sunday morning, then rapidly increase in coverage across ENC through the day with deep isentropic ascent in place. Rainfall amounts of 1 2"-3 " are expected, which may only put a slight dent in the severe drought now in place.
There remains some potential for the development of black ice overnight into the Mon AM commute time if heavier rainfall totals are seen, as temps will crash hard into the 20s overnight.
key message 2,
Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to well below normal conditions Monday through Wednesday. Low temps will reach the upper teens to low 20s, and when factoring in wind chills it will feel like the teens each morning. We will be close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning (wind chills), and Wednesday morning (air temps).
06z Saturday through Wednesday
Expecting to remain VFR across the TAF terminals and much if not all of ENC over the next 24 hours. The lone exception may be along the OBX where a coastal trough may bring brief periods of showers and lower ceilings/vis this morning between 10Z-18Z. Threat is generally 15% or less, and even if lower ceilings/vis do occur here, dont expect anything lower than MVFR conditions if they were to occur. By this afternoon and evening, high and mid clouds will be on the increase behind a cold front that will stall just off the coast tonight allowing for coastal low development late tonight. Dont expect ceilings to get below 10kft across the TAF sites regardless. Also don't expect any fog formation tonight either given how dry the atm is.
Otherwise, light and variable winds forecast tonight as high pressure remains off the coast with winds becoming SW'rly once again Sat morning at 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts at times. The gradient aloft will begin to pinch, however, which could bring a risk for some LLWS to some terminals this morning, primarily PGV and ISO. While it is a lower end threat and likely on the low end of the LLWS spectrum have included a line of WS020/22035KT at both PGV/ISO from 9-14Z to cover this threat. Winds then increase to 10-15 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts noted Sat afternoon before becoming light and variable once again tonight.
Outlook: A weak low pressure system and cold front couple to produce rain Sunday into Sunday evening, with the potential for some snowflakes to mix in briefly Sunday evening, especially for ISO/PGV. Sub-VFR conditions will be likely with this system, but confidence is increasing that snow will not result in any impacts. Dry high pressure returns Monday, bringing a return to VFR conditions across all of ENC through mid week.
Small craft conditions will continue across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet through this evening thanks to strong and gusty SW winds (25-30 kts) ahead of a frontal system. Slightly weaker winds expected elsewhere, though some occasional 25 kt wind gusts are possible later today across the Pamlico Sound and northern coastal waters.
Winds temporarily subside tonight as a cold front crosses the region, but NW winds pick up again Sunday afternoon to 15-25 kts, and a brief period of Small Craft conditions will be possible overnight.
Outlook: Arctic high pressure builds over the waters with lighter winds of 10-20 kt expected through Wednesday with seas 2-4 ft.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EST this evening for amz152- 154-156. Small craft advisory until 5 pm EST this afternoon for amz158.
