Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

727 am EDT Sun may 19 2024

Synopsis

High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 700 AM Sunday, Lingering line of light rain is currently along a weak, elevated back door cold front mainly north of hwy 264 and east of hwy 17, slowly moving east-southeast and dissipating over the next few hours. Ne flow kept lows near 60 inland and for NOBX, increasing to the mid 60s at the Crystal Coast. Instability remains non- existent with NE flow, but weak forcing is anticipated in the afternoon as an elevated back door cold front treks through the region from the north. For this reason, a few pop up weak showers are possible in the afternoon and evening Sunday, particularly near the Crystal Coast. Minimal QPF is expected from these showers. This has been handled by Schc PoPs for light showers south of hwy 264 where the moisture profile is a bit more impressive, and no mentionable PoPs to the north. With low level clouds decreasing for the coastal plain in the afternoon, we should warm up to near 70 inland despite the cooling NE flow. Coolest spot will be NOBX where the NE flow and stubborn cloud cover keeps temps near or just above 60 for the high Sunday.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday As of 400 AM Sunday, Quiet night in store with dry conditions and lows in the mid to upper 50s. While winds lighten over inland ENC, the low offshore paired with the high building in from the north keeps OBX and Inner Banks breezy through the night. Low level cloud cover starts building in from the north and east through the night

Long Term

Monday through Saturday As of 4 AM Sun, High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Monday, High pres noses into ENC, while low pres spins well off the Mid Atlantic coast. Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting in from the Atlantic on cont nerly flow, keeping temps cooler than climo, and cont mo cloudy skies. Highs range from the mid 60s OBX to the low/mid 70s inland.

Tuesday through Thursday, High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Saturday, Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30's% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods.

Aviation

11z Sunday through Thursday Through Sunday night As of 700 AM Sunday..IFR ceilings and rapidly improving visibilities right now as fog lifts this morning. Ceilings slowly lifting to MVFR in a couple hours, then becoming VFR along and west of hwy 17 in the afternoon and evening. Obx is likely to remain sub-VFR with low cloud cover persisting. A second wave of low cloud cover will be moving in from the north later Sunday night, with potential of becoming IFR. Ne winds increase to around 10-15 kt across the coastal plain and 15-20 kt across the OBX. Slight chance of light rain and showers developing for southern terminals (OAJ, ISO, EWN) in the afternoon Sunday, but a lack of instability will prevent convection from becoming deep enough for significant impacts.

Monday through Thursday As of 4 AM Sat, Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon night, as nerly flow cont.

Marine

Through Sunday night As of 400 AM Sunday, Gusty NE'rly flow from the low offshore and high building in from the north result in wind gusts near 25 kts and building seas through the short term. Small craft advisories are in place for all waters but the Pamlico River for Sunday into Monday to account for this NE'rly surge. Seas will be at 5-7ft for the coastal waters off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke through the short term, highest in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream

Monday through Thursday As of 4 AM Sun, SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty NE winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz203-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 8 pm EDT this evening for amz131- 230-231. Small craft advisory until 4 pm EDT Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory until midnight EDT tonight for amz137. Small craft advisory until midnight EDT tonight for amz150. Small craft advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for amz152. Small craft advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for amz154-156. Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to midnight EDT Monday night for amz158.

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