Key MESSAGE 1, Upper level trough digging across the Mid- Atlantic states will develop into the cut-off low just off the coast late tonight then slowly pull away from the area Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, sfc low pressure just east of Cape Hatteras will continue to gradually deepen this afternoon with the approach of the upper trough, then will lift to the NE as the upper low pulls away from the area. Tight pressure gradients between the deepening low and high pressure building in from the north is bringing gusty N to NE wind gusts around 30-40 mph across the region this afternoon, strongest along the OBX. The winds will remain elevated through this afternoon, then will gradually diminish this evening and overnight. Winds are out performing model guidance and in turn, the seas have build higher than guidance bringing large surf along the beaches north of Cape Hatteras and have issued a high surf advisory for this area through tonight.
A much drier and cooler airmass building into the area is bringing much below normal temps through tonight with lows in the mid to upper 40s across inland areas tonight and 50s closer to the coast. A gradual warming trend Wednesday and Thursday with temps near normal with highs in the mid 80s on Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2, As we get into the end of the week, low offshore is forecast to push further out to sea with high pressure becoming anchored off the coast this weekend. This will bring steady SW'rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses, and warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the 90s inland and 80s along the coast and OBX bringing a return to more summer like temps. Long term probabilistic guidance suggests there is room for forecast highs to trend higher (probability of a Moderate or higher HeatRisk is already 60-80%+ on Saturday/Sunday), so those sensitive to heat issues are encouraged to keep an eye on trends over the next few days. Will note some guidance has picked up on a frontal passage occuring on Mon which would result in temps cooling and increased precip chances early next week.
18z Tuesday through Sunday VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as cool and dry high pressure builds into the region from the north. Tight pressure gradients between the high and developing low pressure off the coast is bringing gusts around 20-30 kt across rtes this afternoon. The gusts are expected to diminish fairly quickly this evening across inland areas with light winds overnight. The airmass will be too dry for fog concerns tonight. Vfr conditions continue Wednesday with sct afternoon fair weather cumulus and N to NE winds gusting around 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Outlook: High pressure continue to build into the area through mid week, then eventually shift offshore with winds becoming S'rly by late Thursday and into Friday and remain light into this weekend. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
Strong N to NE winds across the waters this afternoon as pressure gradients have been tightening between high pressure building in from the north and low pressure east of Cape Hatteras. Buoys have been reporting N to NE winds around 25-35 kt with gusts to around 40 kt this afternoon, which is stronger than most guidance has been suggesting. As such, have raised a Gale Warning for much of the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound this afternoon through much of the evening. Winds will begin to diminish this evening and have the Gale Warning expiring at 11 pm. Buoys are reporting seas around 6-10 ft across the near shore waters while wave guidance is forecasting 10-15 ft seas across the 20-60 nm zones, highest east of Hatteras Island.
Wind and seas will continue to diminish Wednesday into Thursday and expect conditions to drop below SCA criteria for all waters by late Thursday.
Outlook: A return to more typical warm-season patterns late in the week with south to southwesterly flow and localized surges in the late afternoon and evening associated with thermal gradients.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz196- 203>205. High surf advisory until 8 am EDT Wednesday for ncz203-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz131- 136-230-231. Gale warning until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz135-152-154- 156-158-180-182-184-186-188. Small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Wednesday for amz137. Small craft advisory until 11 am EDT Thursday for amz150.
