Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

114 am EDT Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis

High pressure will continue to build off the East Coast tonight, and settle off the Southeast coast tomorrow. Another backdoor front will move into the region Monday, but then will quickly retreat north Tuesday, with very hot temperatures expected across the region through at least the middle of next week. A cold front is expected to move into the area Friday.

Near Term

Until 6 am this morning As of 110 AM Sunday, A few tstms have developed along the leading edge of some mid-level shortwave energy crossing central NC this evening. A couple of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued by the RAH office. Latest batch of the high- resolution models including the HRRR and 3km NAM show this activity moving into our western zones over the next few hours and will continue previous forecast for low PoPs for scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms. Any precipitation should exit the area before daybreak. In addition to the threat of showers and storms, some lower stratus indicated by satellite and sfc observations over the far south/southwest CWA as well. No change to forecast temperatures, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s area-wide.

Short Term

6 am this morning through 6 am Monday As of 210 PM Sat, High pressure offshore will drift south of NC tomorrow, leading to a return of SW flow. Low level thicknesses will increase again, and blazing hot conditions are expected away from the immediate coast. Expect close to record high temps, with highs in the upper 90s inland, low to mid 90s east of US 17, and mid to upper 80s along the coast. It will be mostly dry except for a few seabreeze showers/thunderstorms that may develop across to the west of the Pamlico Sound in the afternoon hours.

Long Term

Monday through Sunday As of 230 PM Saturday, A subtropical surface ridge coupled with an abnormally strong late spring upper level ridge will continue to produce hot and mostly dry weather for much of the next week. Well above normal temperatures well into the 90s inland are expected Monday through at least Thursday. The axis of heat peaks mid week where several inland locations could reach 100 degrees or a little higher. Beaches will cont to be a bit cooler with winds off ocean and sounds but shld be well into the 80s with some spots reaching aoa 90. Overnight lows will likewise be quite warm, mostly in 70s. As the upr ridge breaks down and a cold front approaches late week temps will cool a bit but still likely reach lower 90s inland.

Mdls show series of weak impulses and convective complexes passing mainly N of region thru mid week. Some of these may clip nrn tier at times but overall confidence is low so will cont with dry fcst. As upr ridge weakens and front approaches late week will have a little better chc of shra/tsra Fri into Sat with 20/30 pops.

Aviation

05z Sunday through Thursday Through 06z Monday As of 110 AM Sunday, Satellite and sfc observations show a large area of stratus now moving into the southern and southwestern CWA with KOAJ already showing MVFR ceilings. Will forecast a period of MVFR ceilings this morning as the stratus continues to advect slowly north. Some isolated tstms are also possible overnight, especially at KPGV and perhaps KISO. Vfr ceilings will emerge around/by sunrise as the influence of the shortwave shifts away from the area.

Sunday night through Thu As of 230 PM Sat, VFR conditions are likely throughout the extended period. The chances of showers/tstms will be very slim with upr rdg in control. Threat for any late night fog also low as soil moisture conts to decrease given prolonged hot spell.

Marine

Through tomorrow As of 110 AM Saturday, Winds are a bit gustier than depicted by the models and will go with a solid 15 knot southerly wind across the board overnight. Seas will continue at 3-5 feet over northern sections and 2-4 feet south. For Sunday, seas will be 3-4 ft with some 5 footers possible over the outer central waters.

Sunday night through Thu As of 230 PM Saturday, SW winds of 10 to 20 knots expected Sunday night as a weak front approaches from the northwest. This front will get far enough south to produce a wind shift to NE/E Monday over the central and northern tier. The front will lift back N on Tuesday with winds becoming SSW 10 to 20 kts that will cont thru Wed. As another front begins to approach Thu SW winds will increase to 15 to 25 kts.

Seas will be mainly 2 to 4 feet thru the period, some 5 foot seas poss outer wtrs Sun night and early Mon. Better chc of 5 foot seas Thu as winds approach SCA lvls.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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