A reinforcing Arctic front will push across the area tonight. High pressure builds into the region for the middle to latter half of the week.
Through tonight As of 2 PM Monday,
Key Messages
- The coldest air of the season arrives tonight into Tuesday.
- Freeze warning remains in effect for most of Mainland ENC.
- Scattered non-accumulating light snow or flurries possible late tonight, with best chances across the northern tier.
A deep upper low will slide from the eastern Great Lakes to New England through Tuesday with an Arctic airmass building into the region. An initial cold front pushed offshore earlier this morning and skies have become mostly sunny this afternoon. Despite the sunshine, temp have only warmed a few degrees from the morning lows as CAA ramps up across the region. A reinforcing Arctic front will push through Mid-Atlantic tonight as a stout embedded shortwave axis moves through the upper low and across the region with strong CAA bringing gusty winds and plummeting temps. Temps expected to drop below freezing for much of inland ENC, with upper 20s to lower 30s expected. Freeze Warnings continue for most of the area, except Downeast and the Outer Banks where temps are expected to remain in the mid to upper 30s. Wind chill values expected to drop into the upper teens to lower 20s inland and mid to upper 20s along the coast.
Strong forcing associated with the shortwave will support a brief period of -ra/sn to light snow or snow showers/flurries after midnight tonight. Will continue 20-30% pops across the northern counties where forcing will be strongest though could see occasional flurries into the southern sections as well. No impacts are expected as ground temps are too warm for much in the way of accumulation, though a light dusting on grassy areas may occur where heavier precip rates develop, with best chance occurring along the Hwy 64 corridor.
Tuesday through Tuesday night As of 230 PM Monday,
Key Messages
- The coldest air of the season arrives Tuesday
Arctic high pressure becomes centered across the Southeast Tuesday then pushes southward ahead of another northern stream shortwave Tuesday night. Low level thicknesses bottom out on Tue, with highs only in the 40s area-wide, some 20 degrees below climo. Winds back to SW Tuesday night and are expected to remain around 5-10 mph overnight which will limit radiational cooling preventing temps from cratering. Current forecast bringing lows in the mid 30s inland and low/mid 40s coast, but if winds are able to decouple, low temps could be several degrees cooler than currently forecast.
Wednesday through Monday As of 3 PM Monday, High pressure remains centered across the SE US Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming temperatures, but still ~5 degrees below normal with highs in the lower 60s. A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant sfc trough/front pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry and don't expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip, with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead of ridging sliding across Sern CONUS will actually bring a few degrees of warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s. High pressure builds into the area Friday before sliding offshore first half of the weekend with highs in the low to mid 60s. The next front will approach the area late next weekend and early next week, with increasing rain chances.
21z Monday through Saturday As of 1230 PM Monday,
Key Messages
- MVFR conditions possible tonight (30-50% chance) - Light SN/flurries possible this evening through tonight - Gusty W to NW winds (20-25kt) continue into Wednesday
Gusty NW winds of 20-25kt are expected to continue through late this afternoon in the wake of last night's cold front. Winds may decrease for a few hours this evening, then will quickly increase once again tonight as a secondary cold front moves through ENC. West to NW winds gusting up to 25kt are expected once the front moves through, then continuing into the day Tuesday. Along the front, a brief period of MVFR CIGs will be possible, especially from KPGV east to KFFA. Shsn or very light SN may accompany this front as well. However, the risk of sub- VFR VIS appears LOW (10-30% chance), as does the risk of accumulating SN. Given the low probability, I opted to keep SHSN/SN out of the TAFs for now. Any MVFR CIGs that develop should quickly clear out by sunrise Tuesday morning.
Outlook: Through the end of the week, the main aviation impact across ENC looks to be periods of gusty winds. The strongest wind gusts are expected through Wednesday.
As of 2 PM Monday,
Key Messages
- Strong W/NW winds will develop late tonight and Tuesday morning
- SCA conditions, possible Gales, expected again Wednesday
An initial cold front pushed across the waters this morning and current obs show WNW-NW winds 10-20 kt and seas 3-5 ft. An Arctic front will push across the waters this evening with strong CAA developing with W-NW winds increasing to 20-30 kt gusting 25-40 kt. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters and sounds with SCAs for the rivers through mid day Tue. Seas build as high as 6-9 ft for the waters s of Hatteras.
Winds relax a bit Tue night, but gradients tighten again early Wed as a dry front approaches the waters. Sca conditions expected to return across most waters Wed and Wed night, and could see some gales south of Cape Hatteras once again. Winds and seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday as high pressure builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the coast first half of the weekend.
Nc, freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EST Tuesday for ncz029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199. Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm EST Tuesday for ncz203-205. Marine, small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm EST Tuesday for amz131-136-137. Gale warning from 2 am to noon EST Tuesday for amz135. Gale warning from 4 am to noon EST Tuesday for amz150. Gale warning from midnight tonight to 2 pm EST Tuesday for amz152-154-156-158. Gale warning from 4 am to 11 am EST Tuesday for amz230-231.
