Key MESSAGE 1, Hot conditions are forecast for Saturday as temps get into the 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints mixing out into the upper 40s to low 50s tomorrow across much of our inland zones, Min RH's will reach 20-30% outside of the OBX where Min RHs of 40-60% will be found. Wind gusts could get as high as 20 mph at times Saturday afternoon especially behind the seabreeze as it works its way inland. With ongoing wildfires already occuring across ENC and the threat for easy ignition of fires given the dry and gusty conditions, in collaboration with the NCFS have hoisted an Increased Fire Danger Statement out across Martin and Beaufort Counties and points south for today.
ENC remains under widespread drought conditions with just about the entire area under severe drought (D2) conditions with a small sliver of Martin county under extreme drought (D3) conditions. The lack of rain continues to be rather noticeable across the Southeastern US, with rainfall amounts since March 23 running about 10-50% below normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period. To add some additional perspective, it would take roughly 9-12" of rain over the course of one month to end the drought here in ENC.
Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Either way, a statewide burn ban remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.
key message 2, A surface low and its associated frontal boundaries will track E'wards across the Carolinas on tonight into Sun as a mid level shortwave quickly transits across the Mid-Atlantic. With low level moisture continuing to increase, expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across ENC Sat evening into the overnight hours and Sunday morning. Guidance continues to suggest any storms that do develop will likely remain sub-severe as deep layer shear generally remains 25 kts or less, instability is meager, and greatest forcing from the approaching front is located to the north. Rainfall totals still look to generally remain below 0.5 inches overall, although could see higher amounts in thunderstorms with some HiRes guidance showing localized areas over one inch. A decent N'rly surge of winds will move over the area Sun afternoon into Monday with high pressure ridging in from the north.
A progressive pattern will continue through the week with guidance showing another low pressure system pushing across the area on Wednesday followed by another southern stream system potentially impacting the area next weekend. Run to run consistency and agreement among the models have been poor, so confidence is not that high in the forecast details but it is encouraging to see a more active pattern emerging in the models. While rainfall amounts through the week will likely not have a tremendous impact with alleviating the drought, hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will help reduce the wildfire threat across the region.
06z Saturday through Wednesday Dry conditions will continue across ENC during the day today. Can't completely rule out an iso shower or storm, but the chances are less than 15%, so will leave out of the TAF fcst attm. Tonight, better chances for showers and perhaps a storm or two as a low pres system and front work it's way through ENC overnight. Best chances for rain before midnight are at ISO and PGV, where showers are now in the fcst this evening.
Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday): Ocnl systems with showers and storms will move through the region as a bit of a more active pattern persists into next week. Cigs decrease to MVFR, and perhaps some tempo IFR, SUN morning. These sub- VFR CIGs are expected to remain in place through MON at least before becoming confined to the coast and offshore. These lower clouds could keep MVFR cigs near the OBX into mid week next week.
Continue the SCA for the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras through 5 am with gusts around 25 to 30 kt continuing to be reported at offshore buoys. A frontal boundary currently draped across the northern waters will lift north of the area today with wind becoming S to SW around 15-20 kt across all waters this afternoon. Sw winds gradually diminish tonight with low pressure passing north of the area. The low will deepen as it pushes off the Delmarva Peninsula with a strong cold front pushing south across the area on Sunday with a Nly surge bringing strong SCA conditions and the potential for Gale Force winds across the waters with seas building to 6-9 ft northern waters and 4-7 ft southern waters.
Outlook: Northerly winds gradually diminish through mid week, becoming less than 15 kt Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas will remain elevated, however, with SCA conditions persisting across the nearshore coastal waters into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday across the central waters.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 5 am EDT early this morning for amz154-156-158.
