Key MESSAGE 1, Much needed rainfall continues across ENC today offering some temporary relief to elevated fire weather conditions the region has been experiencing. As of 3 AM, MRMS rainfall estimates showing the greatest rainfall totals across the coastal plain west of a line from Plymouth to Kenansville and also along the coast from Swansboro to Cedar Island. Estimated amounts in these areas range from 1 4 to 3 inches with pockets of higher amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range while the rest of the FA has seen less than 1/4 inch so far. Rainfall chances continue today ahead of a mid level shortwave trough pushing south across the Mid-Atlantic states with guidance showing additional rainfall amounts around 1 4 to 1 inches inland to 1/2 to 1 inches along the coast possible. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms bringing locally higher precip rates this morning but the severe threat will be curtailed by limited instability, especially after the front pushes through and a strong low level inversion develops.
A sfc low will push east of the Delmarva Peninsula today with the attendant cold front pushing south across ENC this morning with a northerly surge developing this afternoon bringing wind gusts around 20-30 mph. Strong CAA with clouds and precip will keep temps from warming much today with highs in the mid to upper 60s this morning with temps falling this afternoon behind the front.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A progressive pattern will continue through the week with another low pressure system progged to push across the area late Wednesday followed by another southern stream system potentially impacting the area next weekend. Latest guidance in best agreement with the mid week system while run to run consistency among the models continues to be poor for the system next weekend with the possibility for it to be suppressed to the south, so confidence is not that high in the forecast details but it is encouraging to see a more active pattern in the models. While rainfall amounts through the week will likely not have a tremendous impact with alleviating the drought, hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will help reduce the wildfire threat across the region.
06z Sunday through Thursday An upper level shortwave and an associated cold front will move through ENC through Sunday morning. Showers will continue to move through the region overnight into Sun morning, with a few thunderstorms yet possible esp for southern terminals OAJ and EWN through around 16Z. A final cold front will push south through the area Sunday afternoon with a notable northerly wind shift. Gusty north winds are expected behind this front as well.
VFR CIGs this evening are expected to gradually lower through tonight, with most guidance falling to IFR after 11z Sun morning. Low CIGs are then expected to last well into the day Sunday before lifting back to MVFR later in the afternoon and evening. Ifr may redevelop later Sun night, esp for KEWN.
Outlook (Monday through Friday): High pressure builds close enough from the NW to bring all areas up to VFR levels Monday as drier air begins filtering in and lasts through mid week. Another front and weak low may bring sub VFR with some showers on Thursday, exiting on Friday.
Low pressure will deepen as it pushes east of the Delmarva Peninsula with a cold front pushing south across the water this morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across the waters today with best chances for thunderstorms across the outer coastal waters. A northerly surge around 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt will develop this afternoon and continue through tonight. Cannot rule out a few gusts approaching Gale force this evening but overall probabilities are less than 50%. Seas will build this afternoon peaking around 7-10 ft north of Cape Hatteras and 5-8 ft south of Cape Hatteras tonight. Continue the SCA for all waters with just some minor timing adjustments.
Outlook: Northerly winds gradually diminish Monday, becoming less than 15 kt Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds overhead. Seas will remain elevated, however, with SCA conditions persisting across portions of the nearshore coastal waters into Tuesday night. Another low pressure system is progged to pass north of the area Wednesday night and could see minor SCA conditions over portions of the nearshore coastal waters redevelop Wednesday night into Thursday.
Nc, beach hazards statement from 8 am EDT this morning through this evening for ncz196-203>205. Marine, small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 2 pm EDT Monday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 pm EDT Monday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am EDT Monday for amz136-137. Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 4 am EDT Wednesday for amz150. Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 7 am EDT Wednesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz156-158.
