Key MESSAGE 1, There will be quite the temperature gradient tomorrow with inland areas reaching the low to mid 70s while the Outer Banks will max out in the mid 50s. A quick moving cold front will drop south across the area tomorrow night. Strong forcing and higher PWATs (~1") along the front will support the potential for a few showers, so 15-30% PoPs have been added to the forecast.
KEY MESSAGE 2, CAA behind Sunday night's front will keep temperatures significantly cooler on Monday with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. A few shortwaves will move through late Monday and into Tuesday and bring the next chance for scattered light showers across the area.
KEY MESSAGE 3, Upper ridging will move in on Tuesday and start a warming trend that will last through the rest of the week. On Tuesday, highs will range from the low/mid 60s inland to mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will range from the low 80s inland to low 60s at the beaches. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there's potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons.
18z Saturday through Thursday Stratus and fog has cleared and VFR flight cats are expected to last into tonight with light N-NEerly breeze at all TAF sites though OBX terminals will likely see IFR-MVFR CIGs lingering into this evening. Around sunset, winds will calm to near zero with overall flow regime flipping around to become more Serly. Good radiational cooling under clear skies and the calming winds and residual moist low- levels should allow reduced VIS to return in BR/FG. Continue MVFR fog across all TAF sites and have introduced TEMPO IFR groups for all, as there's potential for the entire region to get to LIFR or lower VIS in the overnight and early morning hours. Vfr returns once fog burns off SUN with light SWerly winds early becoming more Werly in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move south through ENC on late SUN with a notable northerly wind shift. A few SHRA or TSRA may accompany this front, although not all guidance show this potential. Behind the front, a weak weather system is forecast to move through the area early next week, and this system should provide the next chance for sub-VFR conditions across ENC.
Latest obs show northerly winds at 10-20 kt with 3-4 ft seas. There's potential for some 5-6 ft seas along the outer coastal waters between the capes through this evening, but these conditions are expected to be brief and isolated, so a SCA has not been issued. Tomorrow will have good boating conditions until the evening when a strong cold front will drop south across the area and bring a strong surge of northeasterly winds. After sunset, SCA winds will develop across the northern waters, expand southward through the overnight hours, and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Northeast winds will continue to increase on Monday, peaking in the afternoon at 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. The Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras have the best chance at seeing Gale force gusts on Monday. Seas will build in response, increasing to 6-8 ft Monday night and 6-11 ft on Monday (highest near the Gulf Stream waters). Winds will relax Monday night, but seas will be slow to subside and may not drop below 6 ft until Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Therefore, SCAs have been issued for the Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters starting Sunday night. Given that the Gale force gusts are more than 36 hours out, strictly SCAs have been issued at this time but will likely need to be upgraded to a Gale Watch with the next cycle.
Outlook: After headlines drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week should have good boating conditions with winds and seas remaining sub-SCA.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 7 pm Sunday to 1 am EST Tuesday for amz135. Small craft advisory from 7 pm Sunday to 7 pm EST Tuesday for amz150. Small craft advisory from 7 pm Sunday to 6 am EST Wednesday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory from 7 pm Sunday to 1 am EST Wednesday for amz156-158.
