Key MESSAGE 1, Post-Troppical Storm Arthur's remnants moving offshore of NC this afternoon. Subsidence in it's wake will limit any additional showers for the most part. Front is moving through the region, with some isolated to widely scattered showers along it. Front should be offshore by around 10PM, with a dry forecast for the rest of the night.
Drier and slightly cooler temps return for this weekend. Temps should be back to near climo, with highs in the 80s, and lows in the mid/upr 60s interior to low 70s beaches.
KEY MESSAGE 2, A swath of 1"+ of rainfall has been observed today generally west of hwy 17 in Martin, Pitt, and Greene counties. Behind the front this evening, ridging will build into the region, and we could see a period of light to calm winds with generally clear skies tonight. While the coastal plain has been in a drought, the recent rainfall could moisten our low levels enough for some patchy fog to form if winds go calm. Added patchy fog mentions to the forecast with this update despite models not really behind that outcome.
KEY MESSAGE 3, High pres shifts offshore early next week, while another shortwave swings ewrd acrs the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region. This will drag a cold front into the Southeast, but as is typical this time of year, the front gets hung up inland from the coast. Returning rich low level moisture in tandem with the inland front and sea breeze will act to kick off showers and storms Monday afternoon, mainly inland zones along and west of the sea breeze. Hot and humid conditions return as well, though heat indices should remain below the 105 degree threshold attm. The daily shower/storm chances remain through mid week with no higher than chc/sct mention (30-50%). Little shear in place so any storms should remain sub severe. Temps will be slightly above climo. Breeziest day looks to be Monday with aforementioned front to the west and tightened thermal gradient.
00z Saturday through Wednesday VFR conditions through the rest of this evening with a front moving through the region. Minimal wind shift behind it, but some isolated to widely scattered showers are being observed along the front as it moves through. Front should push offshore by 10pm, with ridging building in behind it. The ridging could bring a period of light to calm winds inland, which will be paired with generally clear skies. With the recent rainfall today, we could have some low level moisture present for patchy fog to form after 6Z. Best chances of this are for Martin, Pitt, and Lenoir counties where 1"+ has fallen today. Light winds below 10 kt will cont on Sat with high pres in the vicinity.
Outlook (Sun through Wed): Overnight fog and stratus threat possible each morning. Weekend will be dry with high pres and predominant VFR expected. Next rain chances will be on Monday afternoon evening in form of typical diurnal thundershowers. The daily shower/storm threat will cont through mid week.
Will drop the gales and convert to SCA's for the coastal waters as winds have slacked behind the earlier convective line that moved through in association with low pres.
Winds will turn nwrly then nerly overnight behind the departing low. For this weekend, light winds and low seas bring pleasant boating conditions with high pres in vicinity.
Outlook (Sun through Wed): On Mon, s to swrly gradient inc due to front approaching from the west and tightening of the thermal gradient. This will kick up nearshore winds to 25+ kt with SCA's likely needed for much of the marine domain including inland sounds and rivers. By Tue winds and seas return to below SCA levels, with just a typical uptick in late afternoon, early evening winds due to daily weak thermal gradient.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz195- 196-199-204-205. Marine, small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT this evening for amz152- 154-156-158.
