Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

712 am EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Synopsis

A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and move offshore early Sunday. A stronger cold front will approach from the west late next week.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 710 AM Saturday, No major changes to the current forecast. Latest satellite shows generally clear skies except for some mid-clouds and a few patches of fog. Temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 80s today with increased humidity levels as dewpoints rise into the 70s, certainly not indicative of the First Day of Fall. Good agreement amongst most all guidance that a weak cold front will move into the far northern zones this afternoon. The latest NSSL WRF develops a few showers and perhaps a tstm along the front over the northern zones late in the day and will continue the small PoPs northern sections in this forecast.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday As of 345 AM Saturday, The weak cold front should cross the CWA overnight and be offshore early Sunday morning. Will maintain low PoPs across the northern zones through the overnight hours with a few showers possible in the offshore waters as well late tonight. With increased humidity levels, lows tonight will be warmer, ranging in the upper 60s inland to mid 70s Outer Banks.

Long Term

Sunday through Friday As of 4 AM Saturday, Strong high pressure building in from the north will serve to push the front through the area Sunday and expect scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm with frontal forcing. Thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits with only modest instability and limited upper level support despite somewhat improved shear across the region. N/NE flow will allow highs to be a few degrees cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s inland to around 80 NE coast.

Predominantly E/SE flow across the area Monday and Tuesday with high pressure sliding off the New England coast while continuing to ridge SW into the piedmont and a weak area of low pressure or open trough moving westward beneath the high towards the Southeast coast Tuesday. Sufficient moisture, instability and shear will be present to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region, especially through peak heating, though expect most storms to remain below severe limits. High Monday expected in the low to mid 80s once again, but low level thicknesses begin to increase Tuesday with highs expected to generally be in the mid 80s, except low 80s coast.

High pressure will be centered off the SE coast Wednesday and Thursday with SW flow continuing to bringing a warm, moist and unstable airmass across the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. A cold front approaches from the NW Friday but models are not in best agreement with strength and timing of the front leading to a below normal confidence in the late week forecast details but at this time think unsettled weather will continue with highs in the mid 80s inland to lower 80s coast.

Rain Forecast

As of 350 AM Saturday, Major flooding continues in portions of eastern NC. Heed all local law enforcement instructions and do not drive into flooded roadways. Lingering high water will continue to impact many areas with multiple roads flooded and closed.

Aviation

11z Saturday through Wednesday Through 12z Sunday As of 710 AM Saturday, Some patchy fog around KEWN should dissipate in the next hour or so, with VFR conditions expected for the balance of the day. A weak cold front may kick off a few showers and storms later this afternoon and evening, but most activity should remain north of the TAF sites. Guidance once again indicates favorable conditions for radiational fog again tonight and will forecast a period of IFR conditions from 09z to 12z Sunday morning.

Sunday through Wednesday As of 430 AM Saturday, Pred VFR conditions expected much of the period though patchy late night/early morning fog possible each morning. Also could see isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms through the period with somewhat better chances Monday through Wednesday.

Marine

Today and tonight As of 710 AM Saturday, No changes needed to current marine forecast at this time. A light pressure gradient will continue across the coastal waters and Sounds today and tonight. Winds will be mostly SW/W today, but will become more E tonight as a weak cold front crosses the area. The main marine issue for the short term will be continued long period ENE swells which will push seas to as high as 5 feet at times today into tonight, especially over the central and northern waters.

Sunday through Wednesday As of 430 AM Saturday, A front pushes south of the area Sunday with strong high pressure building in from the north and expect winds to become N/NE during the day Sunday, then predominantly NE 10-15 kt Sunday night. Seas continue around 3-4 ft north with up to 5 ft central waters, and 2-4 ft southern waters.

High pressure slides off the New England coast Monday and Tuesday while continuing to ridge into the region and expect E winds around 10-20 kt Monday, trending to the SE Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure or open trough moves westward toward the Southeast coast. With a prolonged fetch of E winds, seas are expected to build during the first half of the week to 6-9 ft northern/central waters and 3-6 ft southern waters Monday night into Tuesday.

The trough dissipates Tuesday night with high pressure strengthening off the Southeast coast bringing S to SW winds around 10-15 kt. Seas expected to slowly subside to around 5-6 ft north and 2-5 ft south by Wednesday afternoon.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz103. Marine, none.

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