High pressure remains offshore through tonight. A warm front will move across northern NC tomorrow followed by a cold front pushing through the area late Saturday. Cooler and drier high pressure rebuilds Sunday into early next week before another cold front brings the next chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday.
Through tonight As of 2 PM Thu, Weak cold air damming is diminishing early this afternoon across ENC. Low clouds are finally clearing across the northern coastal plain where temps remain chilly and in the mid 50s. Farther south, sunshine returned late this morning and temperatures have warmed in to the lows 60s, with highs in the mid to upper 60s expected. Skies should remain mostly clear into this evening until mid and high level clouds begin to stream in from the west in advance of the next frontal system. How quickly and how thick cloud cover becomes tonight will be a determining factor as to whether or not there is any fog development, since otherwise ideal radiational cooling conditions will be present along with ample low level moisture. Confidence is high enough to include some patchy fog in the forecast, but there is potential for denser fog if clouds are slower/thinner overnight. Low temps tonight should drop into the low to mid 40s inland, and lower 50s along the coast.
Friday As of 2 PM Thu, A warm front will slide into ENC from the west tomorrow morning, making for a complex forecast with a large temperature gradient from north to south. The front is expected to remain mostly east/west orientated along the NC/VA border with isolated to scattered showers developing along it through the day as far south as the US 264 corridor. Farther south it will remain mostly dry with some breaks of Sun, which will lead to a substantial temperature gradient in the afternoon. Depending on how much Sun is seen, areas along and south of US 70 could reach the mid to upper 70s, while areas along and north of US 64 remain in the lower 60s with dreary conditions through the day. The middle ground is the most in question, with upper 60s to low 70s likely, but there is bust potential both up and down here depending on the exact track of low clouds and rain.
Friday night through Thursday As of 2 PM Thu, Mainly mild conditions expected with above climo temps through mid next week. Chances for light rain Sat through early Sat night. Another system brings rain chances by mid next week.
Sat, On Sat, ENC is in warm sector with highs rebounding back into the 70s as warm front will have lifted north. Kept pops in the chc range for now Saturday and Saturday night. Rain amts do not appear impressive, but perhaps some areas could see a wetting rain. Could still see a few rumbles of thunder if surface heating is strong enough and utilizes the modest instability present.
Sun through Mon, High pressure is then forecast to build in behind the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing. Zonal flow will be in place, so temps should be around avg during this period, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows in the 40s. Sun night will be the coolest night, with lows in the 30s interior to 40s coast.
Tue through Wed, Next chance for rain arrives by Tue, and esp Tue night into early Wed, as shortwave and frontal boundary sweep through. This system has the potential to tap into some GOM moisture, as layer streamlines are out of the SW through the SE CONUS, but timing and mesoscale features are yet to be ironed out, so no higher than 30-50% pops this far out in time. Temps rebound to warmer than climo, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to 50s.
18z Thursday through Tuesday As of 1245 PM Thursday,
Key Messages
- Chance of fog tonight with the greatest potential north of Highway 70/I-42
- Chances for showers and sub-VFR conditions tomorrow as a weak warm front lifts through the area
Low stratus has mixed out across the southern half of the forecast area as of early Wednesday afternoon but continues to linger north of Highway 70. Visible satellite trends indicate that the lingering low ceilings will soon lift for the remaining TAF sites through 19Z; however. Vfr conditions will then persist through the early overnight hours with calm winds and only some scattered mid/high clouds.
Forecast uncertainty then increases after midnight tonight. Most guidance is indicating patchy to areas of fog developing after midnight, with the greatest potential north of Highway 70/I-42. This would bring sub-VFR VIS to PGV and ISO. Guidance remains uncertain on whether potential will extend farther south to EWN/OAJ. Additionally, mid-to-high level clouds are forecast to begin increasing overnight ahead of an approaching warm front. Should these clouds build in thicker and/or quicker than anticipated, the overall potential for fog may be tempered. Should clouds be slower/thinner, fog potential will be greater and may bring IFR to LIFR VIS. Have trended the TAFs towards lower VIS this cycle, but given uncertainty, have only introduced MVFR VIS for PGV/ISO.
Warm front is then forecast to begin lifting through the region tomorrow morning. Any fog is expected to mix out after sunrise, but WAA atop the frontal inversion is expected to lead to lowering ceilings and increasing chances for showers through the morning and into the afternoon, including another chance for sub-VFR conditions. Given uncertainty regarding timing and coverage, have opted against any inclusion in the TAFs as of this cycle but will continue to monitor for future adjustments.
Outlook: Yet another chance for Sub-VFR conditions over the weekend when a series of approaching, and eventually passing, fronts increase rain chances and sky cover. Highest chances currently Sat evening into Sun morning, although typical timing differences lower confidence.
As of 2 PM Thu,
Key Messages,
- Small Craft conditions likely to develop for portions of the coastal waters early Saturday morning through Sunday.
Light northerly winds this afternoon will become light and variable tonight, before rebuilding out of the SW tomorrow at 10-15 kts. Winds continue to strengthen Friday night ahead of the next cold front, and will become SW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts by early Saturday morning. Strong SW winds continue through Saturday afternoon when a cold front crosses through the marine waters from north to south and winds switch to N 15-25 kts behind it through Saturday night.
Seas will be 2-4 ft through Saturday morning, and then increase to 3-5 ft through Sunday with some periods of 6 foot seas possible over portions of the waters off Cape Hatteras.
Outlook: Improving conditions expected Sunday with winds becoming N 10-20 kts. Light northerly flow continues Monday with winds coming back around to the south Tuesday at 10-20 kts.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
