Key MESSAGE 1, An impressive upper level trough will dig across the Plains on Sunday and will become more negatively tilted as it moves east across the Mississippi River Valley on Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through Sunday evening and into Monday. A pre-frontal surface trough will develop through the day on Sunday, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms and backing low level winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase through Monday and peak with the FROPA Monday night. This front will produce a strongly forced line of convection, and with ample deep layer shear and 0-3 km SRH, there remains potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes with a lesser risk for severe hail. Destabilization could be significantly inhibited due to cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms associated with the pre- frontal surface trough, but even meager instability could still produce strong to severe thunderstorms with the FROPA.
SPC has eastern NC in an uncommon 30% probability area for Day 4, and AI NWP forecasts remain quite bullish on severe potential. In fact, the probabilities here have trended upward slightly in the past 24 hours. The previously mentioned NSSL GEFS total severe probability remains at an elevated 15-30%. Users should keep a close eye on future forecasts as details come into better focus.
00z Saturday through Wednesday VFR conditions currently remain over ENC this evening as high pressure continues pushing further offshore this evening. Forecast calls for these VFR conditions to continue to persist through the rest of the period. One minor caveat to this is while winds will likely remain high enough to keep us well mixed through tonight, there is a low chance winds ease enough towards sunrise on Sat for some patchy fog mainly along our SW'rn zones. Href probs only put a <20% probability of visibility of less than 5 miles across portions of Duplin and Onslow Counties as there is a lower likelihood of winds becoming calm. Put 6SM BR in the TAF for OAJ, but lack of confidence prevented me from going any lower. As a low crosses the Great Lakes region tonight, a pinched pressure gradient will bring some strong winds aloft. Low level wind shear concerns exist for northern terminals, including PGV, tonight roughly from 4Z-9Z. Winds at 1-2kft are expect to be between 30-40 knots out of the SW. Winds will veer through the night into tomorrow, becoming light westerly by 12Z Saturday, light northwesterly by 15Z Saturday, and light and variable by 20Z Saturday as a high pressure moves overhead. High clouds will be in and out through the TAF period but there is no risk of low sub-VFR clouds.
Outlook, The next frontal system is expected to impact ENC Sunday through Monday bringing gusty winds and periods of sub- VFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe.
An uptick in winds is occuring as south to southwesterly winds increase ahead of powerful and compact low pressure crossing the Great Lakes. A period of 15-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kt is expected for offshore waters. For our inland waters, the Pamlico Sound still has a chance of seeing infrequent gusts of 25 knots. Have elected to keep the SCA going despite the marginal nature. Of greater note, Alligator River and the Albemarle Sound currently have Marine Weather Statements in effect until 0015Z Saturday for gusty winds around 25 knots. The southerly flow is funneling through the Alligator river, creating a localized area of enhanced winds in this region. Once the winds become more southwesterly after 00Z expect the winds to drop off a tad, below 25 knots. Wind the increasing winds tonight, seas will respond by building back to 4-5 ft across the central waters with isolated six footers. Conditions will improve early morning tomorrow with winds becoming westerly and decreasing to around 15 kt by sunrise.
Outlook: Pleasant conditions will stick around through Saturday but deteriorate once again on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front forecast to cross the area on Monday.
Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 4 am EDT Saturday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT Saturday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 7 am EDT Saturday for amz156.
